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USD/INR: Correlation to Broad Forex Market Intriguing Signal

Updated: Jul 2, 2023

The USD/INR is near the 82.1200 price as of this writing. On Friday the USD/INR hit a low near the 81.8000 ratio. The ability to touch depths in the USD/INR before going into the weekend correlated well with the broad Forex markets, as the USD was showing signs of weakness globally. Yesterday’s trading volumes were weak because of a U.S banking holiday being observed and only in the next handful of hours will U.S financial institutions return from their long weekend, meaning an increase in volatility could arise.


The lows seen in the USD/INR on Friday challenged values not seen since the 10th and 11th of May. Interestingly support seems to have held technically, and the USD/INR was not able to test lower values seen in the middle of April and the first week of May. However, the trading conditions in the USD/INR appear to be healthy and performing in a manner that can be compared to the broad currency markets, and that is important because it may be a sign that interventions have not been necessary from the Reserve Bank of India the past few weeks.


USD INR Correlation

USD/INR One Month Chart as of 20th of June


Was the Federal Reserve Decision a Pause or a Skip Regarding Interest Rates?


While the U.S Federal Reserve behaved as anticipated last Wednesday and did not raise its Federal Funds Rate, the central bank is still rattling its ‘inflation’ sword and has let it be known it can raise interest rates in July. The decision to not hike borrowing rates in June has been described widely as a pause by U.S Federal Reserve watchers, but if the Fed were to raise interest rates in July the pause would then have to be described as mere ‘skip’.


However, if broad Forex market price action is being interpreted correctly, it does appear many financial institutions are seemingly betting on a less aggressive Federal Reserve over the long-term. The question is if this is the correct outlook. Inflation remains problematic and until consistently solid drops in the costs of goods takes place, the Federal Reserve will remain rather unclear regarding its rhetoric and will likely bang on its higher interest rates 'drum' as a warning.


Here Comes More U.S Federal Reserve Rhetoric: Today and Tomorrow


Something USD/INR traders should pay attention to later today and tomorrow are the spoken words and gestures from Federal Reserve officials. New York Fed President John William will be speaking later today and he will certainly be asked about his outlook regarding interest rates. Because he is in charge of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, Williams remarks are watched carefully by the financial markets and his comments will certainly affect Forex and equity indices.


And then leaning into the microphone tomorrow will be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He will present his viewpoints and be asked questions regarding monetary policy in the House of Representatives by the Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. On Thursday, Powell will remain in Washington and perform the same show for the Senate Banking Committee. The Fed Chairman is a trained D.C insider and he will try not to inflame the financial markets with any surprises.


Outlook for the USD/INR is Choppy in the Near-Term


A reversal higher in the USD/INR early this morning has also correlated to the broad Forex market. It is likely the USD has been viewed as potentially oversold in the short-term. However, the slight moves higher might also be a natural cautious reaction to the coming rhetoric from John Williams and Jerome Powell. Because of this USD/INR traders should expect rather choppy conditions to flourish near-term.


Friday’s trading for the USD/INR will get important U.S economic data via the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports. If the USD/INR remains below resistance levels of 82.1500 and 82.2000 consistently over the next few days leading into Friday’s trading, this could mean the broad Forex market remains bearish regarding its outlook for the USD. Speculators should be careful over the next 24 hours. It should also be mentioned that if Jerome Powell doesn’t surprise the marketplace tomorrow, he will not be likely to offer any new information the following day in Washington, meaning tomorrow’s comments from the Fed Chairman are the words likely to cause volatility if this happens.

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