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Interest Rates, Fireworks, OPEC, Fed Minutes, and Jobs Data

Global day traders will certainly be able to work early this week, but they should note the 4th of July holiday in the U.S will deliver rather light volumes Monday and Tuesday. Markets in the U.S will be open on the 3rd, but speculators need to understand that price action may be flat and then experience sudden bursts of energy. Financial institutions in the U.S could be rather quiet until Wednesday.


Monday, the 3rd of July, European Manufacturing PMI - data will come from across Europe and is expected to show the sector remains rather lackluster. France, Germany, the U.K and others will issue reports.


Monday, the 3rd of July, U.S Manufacturing PMI via the ISM - the Purchasing Managers Index numbers are expected to produce a slight rise, but remain under the level of 50. However, any increase compared to last month's outcome will be an additional sign the U.S economy is battling on and would give the U.S Federal Reserve another reason to lean towards an interest rate hike later this month.


View of AUDUSD Forex during June 2023, before the July RBA announcement.
AUD/USD One Month Chart as of 2nd July 2023

Tuesday, the 4th of July, Australia RBA Cash Rate and Statement - while some analysts assume no interest rate hike will be delivered in July because the CPI has shown a slight downturn, there seems to be rather large whispers another hike of 0.25% could be added from the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD/USD traders certainly need to pay attention, and folks with limited funds should stay on the sidelines until the decision is released.


Tuesday, the 4th of July, U.S Independence Day - banking holiday.


Wednesday, the 5th of July, China Caixin Services PMI - economic data from China has certainly shown signs of downward pressure. A slight decrease is the expected result.


Wednesday, 5th of July, OPEC Meetings - the energy cartel will be conducting its official get together in Vienna, Austria and oil traders should be on alert for any news and decisions made public that could affect the energy sector.


Wednesday, 5th of July, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes - the publication will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's decision to 'pause' interest rate hikes last month, but could also add fuel to the notion the U.S central bank remains within an aggressive stance regarding inflation. Forex markets will react to the report.


Thursday, 6th of July, U.S Services PMI via ISM - the statistics will be monitored closely due to the rather positive outcome from the GDP report last week, which showed the U.S economy remains rather resilient. A positive outcome in the Services numbers will add further evidence for the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish.


Friday, 7th of July, U.S Jobs Numbers - the employment data will culminate as the week comes to an end with the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings figures. Yes, on the day before, Thursday, traders will also see the JOLTS numbers and weekly Unemployment Claims. However, it is the Non-Farm and wages data that financial institutions will largely react upon depending on the outcomes. Because it is a 'holiday' week in the U.S, the reports may find a muted response, but financial institutions will use the information to gauge their mid-term outlooks and position their assets including Forex and bonds.



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