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Risk Events and Questioning the Hyperbole of 'Bad Actors'

Updated: Jul 2, 2023

The week in a way has already started for financial institutions and traders because of the developing news from Russia. Due to yesterday's events surrounding the 'noise' caused by the Wagner Group's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, let there be no doubt that energy sector traders became nervous and fragile behavioral sentiment was being anticipated for Monday's openings. However, like a well staged drama (perhaps this is giving too much credit to the actors) the Russian saga seems to have come to an odd conclusion. Leaving the possibility for a Part Two to develop. Stay tuned ladies and gentlemen.


EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 25th June 2023
EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 25th June 2023

EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 25th June 2023


Monday, the 26th of June, Germany ifo Business Climate - the reading is forecast to come in worse than the previous month. Germany has turned in rather troubling economic data and the E.U as a whole is struggling under the weight of inflation and lackluster growth. The EUR/USD could be affected from the business climate survey.


Monday, the 26th of June, E.U ECB Forum on Central Banking - the annual event which is a bit like the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium will be attended by the leading central bank officials from around the globe. This year's event in Sintra, Portugal will focus on inflation. ECB President Christine Legarde will kick off the event, which will end on Wednesday the 28th of June with speeches from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and others.


Tuesday, the 27th of June, Canada Consumer Price Index - a slew of inflation reports will be delivered. The forecast anticipates a slight drop in price pressure, but will that actually be the result? The USD/CAD could move based on the outcomes.


Tuesday, the 27th of June, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board - this survey is expected to show a slight improvement in the outlook of American consumers.


Wednesday, the 28th of June, E.U ECB Forum on Central Banking - the event will conclude with speeches from the heads of the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Federal Reserve. The event is not supposed to stir up the dust, but Forex traders should monitor the rhetoric generated.


Thursday, the 28th of June, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index - the data is expected to show an increase in prices and underscore the ECB's aggressive rhetoric regarding inflation.


Thursday, the 28th of June, U.S Final Gross Domestic Product - the growth numbers are projected to show a gain of 1.4% compared to last month's 1.3%. The results will move the financial markets if they are surprising. Traders should be on the lookout for revisions to the previous month's numbers.


Friday, the 29th of June, U.K Final Gross Domestic Product - an expected 'growth' number of 0.1% is anticipated, which would match last month's lackluster outcome. The U.K is hovering under recessionary pressures and this GDP result will be watched by GBP/USD day traders.



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