Large Players and Retail Traders Awaiting More Noise in WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil continues to float around the $100.00 mark via cash as a plethora of information and rumors converge into noise that large players and retail traders must distinguish between. The price of the commodity remains seemingly frozen in a higher range that has become almost tight. An air of cautiousness surrounds WTI Crude Oil as nearly all participants brace for additional impetus which will shake value. Near-term wagering considerations appear to be leaning into the potential of negative developments which could ignite more upwards trajectory.
WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart as of 21st October
Inventory and Transits Confronted by Potential of Military Resumption
While there is evidence of solid supply coming out of the Hormuz Strait, nervousness surrounding the almost promise like rhetoric of additional military action in the Middle East has the WTI Crude Oil market on a nervous edge. U.S supply of WTI Crude Oil is showing better inventory numbers, however the OECD Commercial Inventory numbers appear to be faltering via information gathered from Viridian Commodities Intelligence.
OECD Commercial Inventories Data via the Viridian Commodity Intelligence on the 21st October
This highlights the assumption that logistics remain challenging to Europe and Asia and are creating higher energy costs globally as ordering remains concerned about delivery. Besides the inventory worries being felt, the anxiousness from the overwhelming shadow being cast over the Middle East regarding a resumption of intense military conflict is certainly supporting durable higher prices. However, the rather well-traversed $100.00 ratio in WTI Crude Oil remains difficult to pursue regarding short-term momentum technically for speculators who are simply trying to profit on a chosen direction.
What If Scenarios and Rhetoric and Threats From the U.S White House
Intraday pricing remains dynamic and retail traders are vulnerable to actions being generated by the constant whirlwinds of behavioral sentiment ambushing WTI Crude Oil. The current price in the cash market near the $100.550 realm must be given respect. While some traders may look at the current price and believe resistance will kick in and push values lower, rhetoric coming from the U.S White House continues to threaten that more military action is being planned for against Iran. Whether this is a negotiating tactic of President Trump to try and make the Iranian leadership capitulate can be debated until we are all blue in the face.
Furthermore, the emergence of Saudi Arabia as a hotspot in the Middle Eastern conflict has grown significantly. The military attacks from the Houthis of Yemen towards and into Saudi Arabia has certainly added to the upwards price in WTI Crude Oil as supply nervousness has turned from thoughts about a potential hazard into an actual realization regarding the consequences of escalation. As WTI traverses its higher values, traders need to understand the sticky inflated realm is factoring a ‘what if’ scenario.
Programed Algo Trading Versus Sentiment Shifts in WTI Crude Oil
With WTI Crude Oil traversing above $100.000 steadily, retail traders who have the ability to react quickly via their ordering skills could take advantage of quick swings in prices technically as support and resistance levels are tested. Yet, the danger of using a stop loss order in WTI Crude Oil has to be thought out wisely, because even as sentiment drives the market it is still being traded by algo systems geared towards values that coders target as saturated levels where they believe orders are congested.
In other words, algo systems will aim for targets until their programed coding has been achieved per momentum shifts. Yesterday’s high above $103.000 was met by a swift reversal lower which took WTI Crude Oil close to $97.000 before kickstarting upwards again. The lower prices were met by a wave of influencers it should be pointed out that exclaimed good news had overtaken the nervous sentiment which has been dominating the energy sector. However, sustained optimism has been and remains in short supply. The positive sounding influencers’ social media posts quickly disappeared.
Coming Elections and Lack of Optimistic Sunshine
Peace could come in our time. Yes, things could go quiet and get serene. However, betting on the emergence of optimistic sunshine shining brightly on the WTI Crude Oil market in the near-term is a far-flung bet. The U.S mid-term elections are on the 3rd of November.
There should be little doubt in speculators mindsets that rhetoric towards Iran via the U.S White House is going to continue the next week and a half. Threats about the possibility of sudden military action taking place now remains part of the mix too, but because of the U.S election (and Israel’s vote on the 27th of October) it seems unlikely there will be an escalation near-term unless Iran strikes first.
Ultra-Cautious Highs and Fast Moving Price Differentials
Wagering on WTI Crude Oil in the short and near-term should be done with solid emotional fortitude. The commodity continues to move quickly. Price differentials of 5.00 USD in a single day have become almost regular and this means leverage needs to remain conservative, particularly by traders who do not want to use nearby stop losses so they are not kicked out of positions before magic strikes. WTI Crude Oil is going to remain volatile and likely going to sustain its known higher price realm which is ultra-cautious.
