Risk Analysis Archives - Angry Meta Traders

The Oldest Hate: Why The Hague Needs to Convict Israel

June 16, 2024

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis World

The Oldest Hate: Why The Hague Needs to Convict Israel

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 14th of June via The Angry Demagogue.

The oldest hate is also the most frustrating hate – why is there antisemitism and why does it never end? All the reasons to hate the Jews have been refuted by Jewish actions. We are filthy capitalists and then communists. We are separatists and then assimilationists. We are stateless and we have a state. The list goes on and on and we can come to the conclusion that there is no answer.

The late Lutheran Pastor turned Catholic Priest, Richard John Neuhaus said years ago – I paraphrase as I don’t remember the exact quite – if you don’t like Christian America, just wait until you get post-Christian America. No one can doubt that for centuries Christianity was the source of antisemitism in the European continent as Jews were the easy scapegoats to everything from the Plague to economic crashes. But with the dawn of the scientific age, Christian antisemitism lost its cache along with Christianity itself. What we are dealing with now is an antisemitism of the nihilists.

The nihilists are those anti-semites who, like the operettist Wagner and the philosophers Karl Marx and Voltaire started a trend that reached it climax with Nazi and Stalinist totalitarianism and has now made a comeback with a combination of Islamist and progressive ideologies which are all based on the glorification of violence and cruelty that we see in ISIS, Hamas, Fatah, Al-Qaeda and now manifesting itself in America’s great cities and universities. The question still remains – why do all of these seemingly contradictory ideas all converge in anti-semitism?

The answer, it seems to me lies in exactly that one international body that was created in the wake of the actions of greatest and most horrible of anti-semitic regimes – the Nazi perpetrators of the Holocaust. The Western world – the modern Christian west, led by the United States, felt it needed laws of war and international bodies that would continue the work of the Nuremberg Trials and make sure all those who would perpetrate genocide would, eventually, be brought to justice. That these bodies have failed miserably is proven by the genocides in Rwanda and Cambodia, the mass murders going on in Sudan and other parts of Africa, the genocide, still ongoing of Sunni Muslims in Syria and the Chinese incarceration in concentration camps (and who knows what else?) of the Uyghurs.

So why Israel? Why is Israel, why are the Jews the main enemies of the new nihilists?

The enemy is the moral code that the Bible brought into the world – a code that protected slaves from cruel behavior, a code that did not allow the rape of women captured in war, a code that limited the number of horses and wives a king could have, a code with laws of war. Maimonides, writing in the middle ages in Spain and then Egypt, has a whole section of his Code on the laws of kings and war. Jews didn’t always follow the law and the books of Joshua and Judges are filled with difficult passages but the commandments were there, nonetheless.

Hugo Grotius, writing in the 16th and 17th century developed Just War theory based on Christian thinking and that has formed the basis of the international laws of warfare ever since. This certainly would not have happened without the Bible and the codes that followed it and this is what the nihilists hate most of all.

Israel is at the heart of the progressive Western, radical Islamic, pan-Slavic and Communist revolt against the containment of violence, cruelty and bloodlust under the rubric of a higher moral law. Maybe it is true that man’s natural state is war, as Hobbes believed. Maybe Heraclitus is right that “war is the father of us all and our king” and maybe as he continued, it “discloses who is godlike and who is but a man” but the Judeo-Christian tradition taught us that we need to overcome this nature and to live with a moral code that can overcome it and change what it means to be “godlike”.

The “court” in the Hague represents that pagan and nihilistic outlook on life and the desire to return to a time where violence and cruelty is unregulated, where war can be fought without the rules that the Jews foisted onto mankind. Camille Paglia writes in her magnum oppose “Sexual Personae” that society is the “defense against nature’s power”. Without society and the moral and behavioral codes that make it up, Paglia writes, we would be” storm-tossed on the barbarous sea that is nature”.

Convicting Israel of violating the very laws it itself created will finally put an end to the “farce that is morality” according to the nihilists and return us to that “barbarous sea that is nature”. The destruction of Israel will allow the world to finally defeat that 3,000 year old code that we call the Judeo-Christian heritage that prohibits the nihilists from living as they wish. The Hague needs to convict Israel and the woke left along with radical Islam need to finish the job on the battlefield so that they can return to their beloved state of nature.

They hate the Jews now because we have provided them with the framework to be civilized and they hate civilization most of all.

Israel will be convicted in the Hague because to find it innocent means the nihilists will be shackled to a morality that prevents them from cruelly murdering, raping and destroying as they please. It means that Hollywood will not be able to continue glorifying the dismemberment of children in their “realistic” crime dramas. It means the universities will have to teach of truth and beauty and not perpetuate the bloody ideologies it loves. It means that they will have to subordinate their beloved blood thirsty ideologies to that horrible bourgeois virtue, human kindness.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

April 15, 2024

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis

Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

The Israel-Iran War is soon to enter its 7th month even though last night was the first face to face confrontation between the two countries.

There was much less panic in the air on the “Israeli street” than one would expect after Iranian threats over the last week. I was clearly wrong in my assessment that Iran would not want to start something big with Israel and risk having a chunk of their strategic power degraded but it is hard predicting what fanatics will do. The question is if the utter failure of the attack will bring Iran shame in the Muslim world or if the fact that they sent missiles and drones will be counted as a “victory” even if no damage was done to Israel. Or it could be that Iran was counting on Biden-Blinken holding back Israel from responding and sure enough, NBC is reporting exactly that:

President Joe Biden has privately expressed concern that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict, according to three people familiar with his comments.

Last night at about 8:15pm IDF Homefront Command announced that all schools and all educational activity would be cancelled until further notice, angering parents everywhere. A few minutes later they announced that 10’s or hundreds of drones were launched from Iran and on their way to Israel. The news reported that it would take 8-10 hours to arrive, sparking this to make its round on the Whatsapp groups in this very interconnected country:

Google maps also cooperated:

Friends and family in Jerusalem and surrounding areas were awakened by alarms and scurried to the bomb shelters, children in their arms. There were alarms also in the West Bank, the Golan Heights and the Northern Negev dessert. Apparently, the main targets were two air force bases. One was hit by one missile and minor damage was done and the other was untouched. One 7 year old Bedouin girl was critically injured from pieces of a rocket that was shot down. The headline ought to read: Shiite Missile Critically Injures 7 year old Sunni Girl.

The effectiveness of Israel’s air defense system seems to have surprised even the Israeli Air Force and special thanks has to be given to President Ronald Reagan for ignoring the comics and media (but I repeat myself) and many scientists and engineers (the experts!) as they made fun of his Strategic Defense Initiative and called it “Star Wars” – claiming that it was something undo-able and dangerous even to talk about.

Then Senator Joe Biden, using his favorite word, “provoke”, is quoted in this 1985 NY Times article:

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, pressed hard for reassurance about whether the proposed defensive weapons might be fired by mistake, thus provoking the Soviet Union to launch a real attack.

The Biden foreign policy theory for the last 40 years or more is based on not “provoking” your enemy, no matter the cost and appeasing your enemy at any cost.

Special thanks to the U.S armed forces who shot down numerous drones as did the U.K’s air force as well as Jordan’s. There might have been other Middle Eastern countries involved as there is an unofficial regional air defense system set up with Abraham Accord countries and others not part of the Accords. 100% of the suicide drones and 100% of the cruise missiles and 92% of the ballistic missiles were shot down by Israel’s layered “star wars” system.

If the IRG is honest with themselves, they will understand that they have been defeated. A combination of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were shot at Israel at once and no drones and no cruise missiles got through. Of the 110 ballistic missiles shot at Israel, 101 were intercepted and only one reached its target. Israeli defense firms closed higher in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange trading today. I imagine Iran’s potential clients are having second thoughts. China too, must be wondering about their own offensive and defensive systems.

So where does this leave us now?

The War Cabinet assigned to Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Gallant needs to decide on an Israeli response. I am not sure that Israel has the firepower to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites on its own and there is almost no chance we will see U.S B52’s involved.

So the most obvious target is probably off the table. It seems that the U.S Administration is pressuring Israel not to respond at all and to leave things as they are. This should not surprise anyone who has been awake for the last six months.

Israel and Iran have been at war for the last 6 months – one could say for the last two decades. This was clear to everyone except Biden-Blinken who could have shortened the war and the suffering by punishing Iran for their attacks on US sailors and soldiers. Instead, they appeased Iran and released $10 billion to them essentially letting Iran hit Israel with this money.

The Scroll is reporting that:

We are now waiting to see how Israel responds. Although an unnamed “senior Israeli official” has been quoted promising a “significant response” to the attacks, Iran appears to have pre-cleared the attacks with the United States via the Oman diplomatic backchannel. And according to Roi Kais of Israel’s Kan News, a U.S. official told Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya on Friday, “the United States will take part in the response to the Iranian response if Tehran escalates the situation inappropriately”—which means that the United States tacitly approved an appropriate level of Iranian escalation, such as, we don’t know, a “symbolic” drone-and-missile attack.

The United States has also, as Barack Ravid reported Friday, demanded to “have a say before decisions are made about any retaliation by Israel.”

If true, that is cynicism taken to the ‘Nth degree’. True enough, the United States needs to watch after its own national interests, but is it possible that the U.S government considers Iran its equal and Israel its vassal? Were Israel faced with a missile attack from China an argument could be made that U.S interests take precedence over Israel’s – but Iran? The Iranian economy is in shambles, the Rial is at record lows, its only economic lifeline comes from China, bankrupt Russia, the $10 billion Biden gave them and illegal activities. As Israel just showed– Iran’s vaunted missile force is worth less than advertised. We have not even spoken about the way it treats women and gays and how it treats opponents to its theocracy, how it spreads terror throughout the Middle East and Africa, how it helps Russia destroy Ukraine, how it is a key player in the global drug trade and money laundering.

We have also not spoken about its foothold in the Western hemisphere and its attempts to infiltrate the United States itself via the porous southern border.

Worst of all, if the Scroll story is correct, it shows how Biden-Blinken don’t understand what the office of the Presidency of the United States is. It is not just another head of state or head of government, but rather the President’s warnings ought always to be backed up with actions. Biden’s “Don’t Speech 2.0” was laughed at by Iran in public, for all to see. And the Biden-Blinken response is to tell Israel, “don’t”.

Ignoring Biden-Blinken for the moment, Israel must think deeply about its response. It is clear that any response will be followed by more of the same from Iran. Israel must think a few moves ahead and not just attack for the sake of attacking or it will be in the middle of yet another war of attrition. The end of the multiple rounds of attacks must leave Israel in better strategic shape than it is now and must leave Iran substantially weaker.

Whatever Israel decides to do, it must degrade Iran’s military capability by destroying its weapons and bases and killing as many IRG officers as possible. Israel should not bomb the power stations in Tehran or do other non-military strikes. Air force bases, missile silos and Iran’s navy should be targeted in such a way that degrades capabilities. They could start by sinking the Iranian spy ship that is helping the Houthis in the Red Sea.

Israelis seem to think that by “allowing” Iran to attack them it gives them many diplomatic credits, but we already know that these “credits” do not last long. Whatever Israel does, it ought not to play the “message” game. Its attacks ought to provide tactical advantages in the coming months and not just “warnings to Iran” and “messages to Hezbollah”.

But let’s not ignore Biden-Blinken for a moment. What if they decide to threaten Israel that if Israel retaliates the US will sit on their hands?

This would be the time for Israel to do a little threatening of itself. The worst thing for a sitting President running for re-election is a summer gasoline price spike. Israel could certainly threaten to destroy Iran’s oil facilities and help push the price of oil. High gallon gasoline prices this summer will lose Biden more votes than he can gain in Dearborn, Michigan. In exchange for leaving Iran untouched, Israel can demand a free hand in Gaza, including Rafah as well as in Lebanon.

Would that be worth letting Iran off the hook? It might. Iran was defeated in this battle, but it still believes it will win the war. Giving Israel free reign to destroy Hamas and then Hezbollah means that Iran will lose the war, too. Without Hezbollah, Iran will lose its most important asset in its overall goal of destroying Israel, chasing the US from the Middle East and establishing Shiite dominance in the region. It would turn October 7th into the day that Iran started on its road to defeat.

Israel needs to be opportunistic and aggressive in its dealings with its allies and its enemies. It has to let its allies know that it too is playing the long game and that it will not only hurt those who hurt it – as Netanyahu loves saying – but that it will destroy all who even try to harm it.

More importantly it needs to show its enemies with actions and not with words that threatening Israel means you will be destroyed.

The Biden-Blinken team must be told in no uncertain terms that Israel is not a vassal. The end result of this war cannot only be the destruction of Hamas, it must also be the destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regional power. By sending over nearly 60 tons of explosives to Israel, they have put themselves front and center.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Regional War Spreads: Will Blinken Wake Up to the Reality?

January 20, 2024

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis Risk Management

Regional War Spreads: Will Blinken Wake Up to the Reality?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

Despite the denial of reality by the Blinken State Department the Middle East war gets hotter and spreads eastward (even without) Israel’s intervention. After spending years appeasing the Iranians the world is now faced with the results of that policy.

Iran has trained and funded terrorists in Gaza and the West Bank where the high intensity battles continue. In Lebanon-Israel there are close to 100,000 Israelis displaced, and it seems more Lebanese have left the area south of the Litani as heavy rocket, tank, artillery and air attacks continue from both sides of the border. Attacks have intensified against Israel from Syria and Yemen, and Iranians and their militias are attacking U.S forces in Iraq and Syria. Turkey, Russia and Syrian forces continue bombing areas of northern Syria and now both Iran and Turkey are bombing Kurdish lands.

We know what is going on in Yemen and the surrounding seas with global shipping coming to a standstill there, and diminishing Suez Canal traffic is slowly crippling an already disastrous Egyptian economy. The U.S and the U.K have been forced to bomb Houthi areas, but this of course is after the total failure of the Blinken foreign policy of ‘ending’ the war in Yemen by cutting arms sales to the side that was pro-West while encouraging Iran to continue funding, arming and training of their Houthi allies.

A new front has now opened between Pakistan and Iran. We spoke earlier of the Sunni-Shiite war heating up, but it has spread faster and more violently than we expected.

Over the last few days fighting on the Iran-Pakistan border has heated up. It started with heavy fire between the Pakistani group Jaish ul-Adl and Iranian border guards in the Sistan-Baluchestan border area, and included the assassination of Iranian Hussain Gwadanfur on the Khash-Saravan road.

In other clashes between Iranian and Pakistani forces at least two Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) soldiers were killed, and the IRG has shot rockets into Pakistan hitting Turbat and surrounding areas near the coast.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement claiming that they “undertook a series of highly coordinated …. precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts in Siestan-o-Baluchistan province of Iran”. At the end of the press release they speak of Iran being a “brotherly country” with “great respect and admiration for the Iranian people”. It seems that Pakistan does not want to publicly admit that official Iranian forces were involved in the attacks.

What is incredible about Iran is that they have now attacked three nuclear armed states – the U.S, Pakistan and Israel – without fear of retaliation. We can only imagine what the Revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran will do once they too have a nuclear weapon.

We are in a regional war with fighting going on daily from Pakistan to Libya. Iran, not Israel, is at the center and is the cause of nearly all the fighting and tough statements and tough actions need to be taken against Iran – not Israel. Senate majority leader Schumer has been quoted as saying that he wants to put extra conditions upon the sale of arms to Israel, but where was he when Obama sent planeloads of cash to Iran and Biden-Blinken released further billions in November of 2023? Where are the conditions placed on a terrorist state?

The Biden-Blinken foreign policy of appeasing enemies and threatening allies that is at the core of its operation continues apace. First with the cutoff of arms to Saudi Arabia and their Yemeni allies in order to “end the war” and then to “advice” the Ukrainians not to provoke the Russians, and next heavy pressure on Israel to ‘surrender’ to Hamas by leaving them in power.

One can make deals with countries that are interested in their people. One cannot make deals with terrorist groups or revolutionary states that are looking to upend the global order. That is Iran in a nutshell.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Preventing WWIII: Part 2 – Reviving Western Deterrence

November 14, 2023

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis

Preventing WWIII: Part 2 - Reviving Western Deterrence

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

Aggressive Western Action Can over-extend China and Revive Needed Deterrence.

Some cliches are just correct, in spite of their being cliches – “if you want peace, prepare for war” is one. But really it should be “if you want to avoid war, deter war”.

Therefore, it is not clear to me why there is opposition by some in the Republican party to fighting Russian aggression in Ukraine. For some, I guess it is a knee jerk reaction against Biden administration policy while for others it seems to be a general loathing of American involvement in the world.

Each is understandable on its own but does not take into effect the appeasement of Russia will have on Western deterrence around the world – including in the Western hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific. While most Americans understand that Russian control of Ukraine threatens the main Western European countries, the key to Russian imperialism really is in the south. Historically, Russia has always tried to find a warm water port to call its own. For nearly four centuries Czarist Russia fought Ottoman Turkey so that Russia could expand its territory southward and have a warm water presence in the Mediterranean. Currently, a Ukrainian presence in the Black Sea denies Russia even the opportunity to pressure modern Turkey to abide its wishes.

A Russian victory in Ukraine would mean dominance of the Black Sea by the Russian Navy and directly challenge Turkey to appease Russian power by giving them free passage through the Dardanelles to the Mediterranean. That in itself would not be worth much to the Russians without a port in the Mediterranean, which they currently have. That they have one goes back to the disastrous decision by the Obama administration to invite Russia back into the Mideast in order to take care of Syrian chemical weapons. This came, we all remember, when the Syrians laughed at Obama and crossed his “red line” about using chemical weapons against its own people. We might also remember when then Secretary of State John Kerry (the one who was never right on a single foreign policy issue ever) who, first demanded that Syria turn over all chemical weapons in a week, then reassured them that even if we attack it will be “unbelievably small”.

In 1973-4, Henry Kissinger brilliantly took advantage of the Israeli-Arab War’s outcome with Israel’s surrounding the Egyptian 3rd Army in the south and controlling the road to Damascus in the north, by brokering a cease fire on both fronts. This led directly to the expulsion of Russia/Soviet Union from the Middle East. While Russia continued friendly ties with the murderous Assad family – first Hafez and then his son, Bashar, they did not have a military, air or naval presence there. Due to this longstanding relationship with Assad’s Syria, Obama and Kerry thought it a brilliant idea to have them come in and do the dirty work that they didn’t want to do – prevent Assad from gassing his own people.

As Russia came in and established air and sea bases in Syria and introduced the infamous Wagner group to carry out its brutal ground operations, Russia slowly started to strengthen its position in the region. While slyly allowing Israel to attack Iranian arms shipments meant for Hezbollah while pretending to be its ally, Russia formed a close relationship with Iran. Wagner, which fought hand in hand with Hezbollah in order to prop up the Assad regime (and attack American forces fighting ISIS) is now rumored to be training Hezbollah in the use of Russian anti-aircraft systems.

In addition, reports last week that an Iranian Ilyushin 76 cargo jet has now landed in one of the Russian air-bases they established after Obama’s kind invitation to return to the Mideast. This plane, filled with Iranian arms destined for Hezbollah has been unable to land in regular Syrian airports or bases because Israel continuously puts them out of service. Knowing that Israel would never attack a Russian base – this is a safe haven that Russia gladly supplies.

When free countries unite in warfare there is usually one joint goal – that they are all united to defend freedom – that is why they fight together. While autocratic and totalitarian regimes fight together it is usually a combination of a negative goal – disturbing or destroying the current world or regional order – as well as the goal for each power in itself. Currently, the joint goal in the Mideast (of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) is to hurt the main ally of the US in the region – Israel, in order to weaken and embarrass the US. For Iranians, they also want Israel destroyed. For Russia, they want Israel weakened so they can replace the US as the power broker in the Mideast. For China, it is to dismantle America’s control of the flow of oil and, eventually, the replacement of the USD in the global economy with the Yuan.

Ukraine is important in this calculus because, as we said above it gives Russia complete control of the Black Sea and will pressure Turkey – whose NATO membership is uses only to its own advantage – to break permanently with the West. While the Chinese theory is that the two fronts the US is supplying arms to, Ukraine and the Mideast, are tying it down and expending its resources it would otherwise use in the Pacific, in truth, an aggressive strategy on both fronts would be to over-extend Russian and Chinese resources in order to keep China from moving on Tiawan. A credible threat of destruction or even marginalization of the Axis allies in the Mideast – including (besides the soon to be gone Hamas) Hezbollah, Shiite-Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, as well as Iran itself combined with a major offensive in Ukraine will tie down Axis resources and possibly prevent a Chinese blockade or attack on Taiwan. If its two main allies need full supply and full readiness to be able to respond to credible and massive attacks by Ukraine, Israel and the US, China itself might have to expend resources to prop up its own allies.

Add to that a major show of naval force in the Indo-Pacific by Japan, India, Australia and South Korea combined with US forces will give China the choice of destroying their own wavering economy by attacking or blockading Taiwan or in maintaining peaceful Pacific trade routes while trying to prevent the collapse of its Axis allies.

An immediate and radical change in policy can restore Western deterrence quickly. Re-arming Ukraine and leaving Israel to do its job without pressure to stop in Gaza and to respond forcefully in Lebanon will send a strong message. Biden brought two carrier groups to the Mideast and told Hezbollah, “don’t”. But they did.

In spite of that US Secretary of Defense Austin told Israel that its response to Hezbollah aggression in the north is “provoking” them.

And the US hesitates even against Iranian proxies. Just now, the NY Times has reported that Biden-Blinken have turned down a Pentagon plan to be more aggressive in response to Iranian attacks against US forces in Syria and Iraq for fear of “provoking Iran” (this seems to tell us that the Austin complaint from Austin to Israel is really from Blinken).

Iran never seems to fear provoking the US.

Israel fooled itself by thinking Hamas was deterred by its destruction of an arms factory or two (as the US is doing now in Iraq/Syria) when proper deterrence would have meant them knowing we can and will go into Gaza and destroy their underground city as Israel is doing now. Instead, media fear mongers, backed by Israeli ex-Generals on the payroll of the US progressive left (via cushy think-thank jobs) combined with policy directives by successive governments have told us and Hamas time and time again that Israel cannot destroy Hamas as the cost is too high. I don’t want to speak too early, but that seems to have been as wrong as their assurance that Hamas is deterred since they want to drink white wine in the evening overlooking the Mediterranean while watching their children play innocent video games.

It is time to stop calling for cease fires and repeating UN hypocrisy and to start being aggressive and provocative in the defense of freedom.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Preventing WWIII: This is a 1936 Moment for the Middle East

November 7, 2023

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis Risk Management

Preventing WWIII: This is a 1936 Moment for the Middle East

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

The wonderful historian and public intellectual Niall Ferguson has aptly called the current US-China relationship a “Cold War II” and the current debate in the punditry is if the Israel-Hamas war lead to a WWIII. But what if we are already in WWIII? While Russia and the rest of the world did not expect the war in Ukraine to still be fought nearly three years later, the Russia-Ukraine war is now clearly a part of the fight of the West vs the new Axis – Russia/Iran/China/North Korea. But it was the Hamas attack of Israel on October 7 and the response of the Axis and its allies that have more clearly established the battle lines.

We have Russian and Iranian weaponry vs. American and Israeli weaponry. The Russians and the Iranians are using what we so quaintly call “proxies” for a plausible (un)deniability, sheltering them from retaliation. Iran has its various Shiite militias, with Hezbollah being the strongest and most lethal. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIF) are the Sunni useful idiots helping the Shiite empire to destroy their Sunni cousins by dying for the cause. The Shiite militias formed and fighting in Iraq and Syria along with the Houthis in Yemen round out Iran’s ability to pretend it is not fighting while creating a genocide of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq and Jews in Israel. On the Russian side we have of course the infamous Wagner Group which in its racist undertaking is taking over and subjugating sub-Saharan Africa in its run to control minerals, gold and diamonds. They are now helping Hezbollah with weaponry and training by providing anti-aircraft weapons. The two groups fought hand in hand saving Bashir Assad, the leader and butcher of Syria, to stay in power so they already have close ties. Wagner is Russia and Russia is Wagner. Hezbollah is Iran and Iran is Hezbollah. The quicker we understand this the better off we will be.

We don’t have any details on Chinese or North Korean weaponry being used by Hamas or Hezbollah, but that might just be a timing issue. China has already decided not to report Hamas atrocities to its people in its official Chinese language news service and are eliminating Israel from its maps. It only reports Israeli’s response and has taken a clear stance supporting its ally, Iran. Will they learn from their Axis allies and also form proxies in Asia to destabilize countries like the Philippines or Vietnam while being immune to retaliation? They don’t need to conquer or even blockade Taiwan if they can destabilize their neighbors while still selling the West all that it wants to buy and inundate our youth via Tik-Tok propaganda.

Japan has realized what this war is about, and is supporting Israel like it never has. Being totally dependent upon the Mideast for its oil, Japan has never been a close friend of Israel. But they have now condemned the Hamas attack while refusing the criticize Israel’s massive response. The Japanese understand well that an Israeli defeat can lead to Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Back to the Mideast – it seems we always go back to the Mideast.

Iranian backed Hamas and PIJ launched a brutal attack on Israel.

The Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen declared war on Israel and launched cruise missiles and drones in their opening attack.

Iranian backed and financed Shiite militias are moving to Syria and Lebanon hoping to open two new fronts against Israel.

Iranian backed and financed Hezbollah is attacking from the north in what, for some reason, we are not yet considering a war.

And Iran itself is feeling safe from attack from Israel or the US/West since “only” its proxies are fighting.

This is the remilitarization of the Rhineland of 1936 and a Western betrayal of Israel by hamstringing the IDF by allowing gasoline into Gaza or by a forced cease fire, will be the Munich, 1938.

Are we in WWIII yet? Not being an expert, I don’t know. But the main link tying the Axis together is Iran. They are the most experienced in exporting terror and supporting anti-Western regimes from the Mideast to Africa to America’s doorstep – Latin America. They support and are supported by the Castroite regimes in Cuba and Venezuela and have made deep inroads in Argentina, Brazil and now even Mexico. They are currently nearly as great a threat to the west as is China and probably a greater threat than Russia. A nuclear Iran would create three nuclear powers that could threaten the West as an Axis or independently. The Obama-Biden Iranian policy has been proven a total disaster and its seems that the Biden team is finally understanding this. But they can, in Margaret Thatcher’s famous warning to the first President Bush, “go wobbly” at any moment.

The only way to prevent a full fledged WWIII is Iranian regime change. This would bring the entire Persian Gulf (and its oil) into the Western sphere of influence as China does not yet have the naval power to challenge the US. Hezbollah would be instantly neutralized reducing the threat of war and denying the anti-Western powers another presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Although the Syrian butcher, Bashir Assad would still have Russia to back him, it is not clear that Russian power alone could keep him in power. In Latin America, Iranian export of terror would stop instantly.

This does not mean that the US needs to invade Iran in order to defeat it. A majority of the Iranian people are sick of the Islamist regime and sick of paying the price for their being ruled by terrorists. The destruction of Iranian nuclear and missile facilities along with the destruction, by air and cruise missiles, of the main Revolutionary Guard bases will be enough. It is not an easy task -but one within the capabilities of the US Navy and Air Force. It is only the Revolutionary Guards that keep the terrorists in power in Iran – the regular Iranian armed forces can be left alone to decide if they want to help overthrow the regime or stay in their barracks. Once they see that the Guards are weakened it is a good bet they will take the side of the Iranian people and help topple the Islamist-terrorist regime.

Regime change in Iran in 2023 will change the global dynamic just as regime change in Nazi Germany in 1936 would have saved 70 million lives in WWII. A failure to act against the source of evil and to cut off the main link in the current Axis will just kick the can down the road – once again. We have appeased Iran enough and if the West and the US don’t act quickly it will have to act while simultaneously fighting off a Chinese attack in the Indo-Pacific – on its own or with its very own proxies – as well as terrorist attempts coming from Latin America and Russian nuclear blackmail in Europe.

And we haven’t even spoken of the West’s moral obligation to prevent a second holocaust, which will be the very first task of a nuclear Iranian regime.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Trading Tactics to Add to Your Risk Management Knowledge

September 5, 2023

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis

Trading Tactics to Add to Your Risk Management Knowledge

Retail traders seeking quick speculative positions are not the masters of the financial world. Institutions which day traders are hoping to reflect are the real shakers of the markets. Understanding your actual place in the world of trading is crucial, accepting this point and putting ego to the side will create a better grasp of behavioral sentiment as you interpret combinations of fundamentals and technical perceptions and merge them into your risk taking.

Making your decisions with the acknowledgement of your place in the trading world is important. Your 10,000.00, 50,000.00 and 100,000.00 USD value based positions are very small fish in a large ocean. Your trades are very unlikely to affect market direction in any meaningful manner. The more leverage you use makes your available ‘margin’ prone to failure.

Risk analysis is vital for day traders, guarding you money should be a fundamental aspect of your tactical decisions. Deep pockets are not luxuries most day traders have.

If you happen to have a solid amount of money to speculate with it will assist you, but you will still need to practice solid risk taking strategies.

Plenty of rich folks have lost all of their money trading, that isn’t written to make you feel better, it is written as a warning and highlights that speculating is dangerous when not done with a solid plan of action. Once a trade is placed your work than immediately doubles via responsibility, because you have ‘skin in the game’ and need to manage your emotions and thinking as the markets move.

Metallgesellschaft and Barings Bank are two prime examples of two institutional traders who made vital mistakes with risk management and lost everything in the 1990’s. Protecting cash reserves are vital for all. Metallgesellschaft and Barings did not supervise their traders and ‘hoped’ that all things would work out in the end, because they had the false notion institutionally that their capacity to hold onto positions that were not profitable would eventually turn into positive results. Their losing trades caused the destruction of their enterprises.

Most speculators by nature are optimists. After all day traders are gambling on the movement of assets they believe they have a correct perspective regarding future direction of value. In order to wager a trader needs to feel confident regarding their outlook, otherwise they would not pursue currency trading. The same can be said for equities and indices, commodities and all other financial assets. False hope can destroy the efforts of all traders and they must be alert to perspectives which can lead to detrimental results as they trade.

Too much leverage, no real insights about direction, and trading based on ‘noise’ that influences and causes you to make unwise decisions are dangers. It might be boring to constantly be told to be careful, a bit like a parent warning you when you were little to act in a certain way. Good risk management while day trading is vital for surviving and finding success.

Do not be stubborn. In trading no matter if it is Forex, CFDs with equities, indices, commodities or cryptocurrencies you should not ‘marry’ your position blindly. If your trading position begins to show signs of potentially failing and you have concluded you are wrong – end the trade asap.

However, at the same time do not make your decisions based on emotions which may create whipsaw reactions regarding your choices. Having solid goals before going into a trade will help you eliminate emotional stress.

Have price targets and a strategy for getting in and out of trades. If the trade is going in your direction, then protect your profits by either cashing out of the trade, or raising your stop loss to a place that you are actually still going to make money. Some trading platforms may allow you to raise your stop losses – this is called a ‘trailing stop’. If you are lucky enough to catch a trend at the correct time and it is being sustained, using a ‘trailing stop’ is a solid risk management tactic and can protect your profits.

If the trend in your position starts to reverse against you, do not cancel your ‘trailing stop’ because you think the reversal is a momentary cycle. Trading floors are littered by people who had substantial gains and then watched them vanish, all because they thought the market would reverse in their chosen direction again. Folks dream about owning a castle when all they need is a comfortable home. Cancelling stop loss orders is a sure way to the poor house.

Immodest ambitions can ruin your trades when you become stubborn, unrealistic and emotional. Make sure you stay ‘grounded’ and are pursuing trades because you believe in them, and not because you are looking for price action to fill up a boring day with wagers than make no sense.

Broader Alliances: Sustaining Economic and Political Power

June 21, 2023

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis Risk Management

Broader Alliances: Sustaining Economic and Political Power

The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

If the United States decides to abandon its role as the premier global superpower and shall only be a Pacific and Atlantic power, withdrawing as defender of free seas, free trade and freedom in general, its democratic allies will have to start looking elsewhere for broader military alliances. This large group of nations would have to defend their interests against a revanchist China tied to Iran, Russia, North Korea and many of the Latin American countries – possibly including Brazil, and South Africa who have questionable politics and outlooks.

Eastern Mediterranean Alliance: A Strong Sea Power

Here is a speculative, yet reasonable look at the future of the free world. Let’s start with the Eastern Mediterranean where the two major powers are Israel and Turkey. One cannot deny that both these countries outclass all others regarding military might in the region. Israel’s air force is second to none and its navy is becoming a strategic necessity as it needs to defend its natural gas fields miles offshore. It now has six submarines that are capable of projecting power anywhere in the Mediterranean and even into the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. Turkey is currently a NATO member, but it is not clear that this will outlast the first half of the 21st century.

There is currently an informal alliance among Israel, Greece and Cyprus (both NATO countries) via joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. The Israeli navy and air force train regularly with Greece and its special forces train in the Cyprian mountains with its army. It would be in all three countries interests to formalize a treaty – if not of mutual defense, at least of mutual aid during times of war. All three of these countries are democracies and all three have mutual economic interests.

A formalization of this alliance makes sense now and if there is a NATO collapse it turns into a necessity for Greece and Cyprus. Adding Egypt (although it would be the only non-democracy) to this group would only strengthen the alliance and keep Turkey at bay. A post-Erdogan Turkey that is comfortable with its Islamic character and its modern society could even join this grouping with Israel as a potential peacemaker between the historic Greek-Turkish rivalry.

This alliance without Turkey is a powerful force in the eastern Mediterranean, and this alliance with Turkey could neutralize a nuclear Iran. A Post-Hezbollah Lebanon which is in the interests of all of these alliance members (including Turkey and Egypt), could become a reality and another member.

A New Alignment: The United Border Nations

What about Eastern and Central Europe? Poland is rapidly becoming the major non-nuclear European military power. Within the next few years it will outshine Germany and the U.K and rival France. It is quite clear, nuclear weapons aside, Poland would probably defeat Russia in a number of weeks, if not days if a conflict were to ignite.

Whether the Russian-Ukrainian war ends in a Russian defeat or in some sort of face saving armistice, Russia will not lose its aggressive nature or nuclear capabilities and it will inevitably become aligned more closely with China and Iran because of its current political nature.

The important new alignment will be categorization of ‘countries bordering Russia’. A new alliance of Poland, Finland, Sweden, Norway and the Baltic states – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia together would have the land, sea and air power necessary to deter and defeat, if necessary, any Russian imperialist expansion. Even with closer ties to China it would be difficult to imagine that, over the next 50 years, Russia would be a threat to this alliance. Adding Ukraine to this grouping would make a powerful force. Its joint population of over 100 million people, while not quite Russia’s 150 million – would be a formidable adversary, especially as the technological skills of these countries is first world and continuing to improve. Adding the other former Warsaw Pact countries like Czech, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria can only increase its potency.

Unlike the Eastern Mediterranean alliance mentioned above, this would have to be based on a mutual defense treaty in order to properly deter any Russian-Chinese-Iranian attack. Linking up, informally with the ‘new’ Eastern Mediterranean Alliance would create a powerful grouping of free countries against any attempt by authoritarian adversaries. Adding an economic aspect to these border nations and an alliance with the Eastern Med group with free trade zones would create a strong challenge to any attempted Chinese hegemony.

Asian Border Nations Group: Potential Look Ahead at Potential

If we were to unite the Eastern Mediterranean and Border Alliances to an admittedly non-democratic Asian ‘stans nations, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan with a joint population of around 80 million, we are beginning to see the creation of a multi-cultural alliance that extends from the Arctic Ocean through Central Europe, Northern Africa and into Asia.

The Crucial Partner in Order to Balance Power: India

Which leads us to the Indian Ocean; a dominant India can help control the sea lanes from the Persian Gulf to the Bay of Bengal and down to Australia. An Indian-Australian alliance, along with Israel would create a democratic economic and military force that would keep China and Iran from dominating the region. This would require an Indian navy that is not only large, but effective also because it would hold a main responsibility for patrolling the seas from the Persian Gulf up to Australia strongholds.

As India also reaches its potential as a global manufacturing giant, it will be a force to be reckoned with. Including into this potent mix of nations, is the possibility of adding authoritarian countries like Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states; along with Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia who have strong ‘western’ economic interests and would create a formidable bulwark against China’s imperialist Belt and Road project.

Without the need to project naval power worldwide the Unites States could use it massive naval, air and ground forces to take better control of the Pacific Ocean along with Japan, South Korea and Australia.

If we add countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, then China would be deterred from further aggression. The only other region that would fall under American responsibility would be the Atlantic Ocean – the shipping lanes to Europe, West Africa and the Mediterranean. Along with the UK and France there would be no challenger to the control of the Atlantic. This could also lead to a revival of the old Monroe Doctrine and maybe free South America from the destructive influences of Iran, China and Russia.

The Global Economy and Free Trade Zones with a Stable USD as Reserve Currency

What does all this mean for the global economy? The free world along with its less than free allies who fear China, Russia and Iran could still maintain a U.S dollar based world. Free trade zones amongst and between the various alliances along with a revival of manufacturing led by a technology revolution using AI, quantum computing, renewable energy and space exploration could lead to a global resurgence of free countries that could stop the authoritarian appetites of Russia, China and Iran in its tracks. This can only happen with a stable reserve currency the ‘West’ can rely upon which is the USD.

Potentially a U.S freed from being the sole defender of freedom in the world, would help get America’s fiscal house in order and allow it to focus on being a dominant economic power. Is there a future for the ‘free world’ without a United States that projects power globally? Currently, a U.S withdrawal from global military assertion would certainly cause the end of freedom (economic and political) in the world for many nations. However, with the new alliances described above and a fiscally responsible United States, freedom could yet make a comeback.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

Pay Attention to Mid-Size Banking Noise

May 5, 2023

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment AMT Markets Featured Highlights Risk Analysis

Pay Attention to Mid-Size Banking Noise

About a week and a half ago the U.S Federal Reserve ‘admitted’ they made a mistake regarding their oversight of Silicon Valley Bank. In essence, the Fed used the sports phrase that sprung to life in the early 2000’s by baseball players who said, “my bad”, as if by admitting when they made a mental error on the field it would soon be forgiven. “What a good guy”, some folks would say as a player took responsibility, but their team would lose the game.

Gold 3 month chart as of 5th May 2023

The question for the Fed is what will they say when other so-called mid-size and smaller banks start to crumble from duress? The Federal Funds Rate was increased again this week by an expected 0.25% and the corporate banking sector in the U.S is under strain. Many banks are seeing share values on Wall Street disappear as they watch their trading screens with alarm.

Let’s not get caught up in hyperbole, or scare mongering, but these banks and the Federal Reserve have simply proven again they have no real grasp regarding risk analysis and what to do when the proverbial ‘fluff’ hits the fan. It is easy to point fingers now, yes, but the writing has been on the wall. It is much easier to make money for a bank when money is cheap. Little to no interest rates allowed banks to be speculative – compared to an environment when the lending rate is high and folks do not borrow, or pay back slowly. Deposits are also dwindling because bonds and other assets have become attractive for ‘clients’ who want to park their money elsewhere to earn better returns. The middle class and lower class are under pressure and small businesses are too as mid-size banks get nervous.

In the FOMC Statement this week which was somehow a unanimous decision – no dissension is a bad sign ladies and gentlemen – the Fed stated “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation…..” However, they also pointed out that inflation remains ‘elevated’. And let’s dissect the banking is sound statement, the Federal Reserve did not elaborate. They surely cannot mean the mid-size and smaller banking sector which is losing value almost daily because of struggling corporate share values are sturdy. Financial houses of various types are clearly betting these banks will come under immense weight because interest rates remain high.

Oh, and borrowing costs can still go higher, because let’s face it, inflation is not going away soon. The Fed has helped ramp up inflation by creating ‘import inflation’ as they have ‘killed’ foreign currencies values. If you are a fan of body language watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell answer questions during the Fed Press Conference from this Wednesday the 3rd of May, when pushed on details regarding the mid-size banking sector and the future of interest rates. He didn’t put his hand up in the air and say, “my bad”, but it would not have been surprising, however it did look like he wanted to walk off of the field. The stadium packed with depositors within mid-sized and smaller banks should be prepared to show their disdain. Middle America should be unwilling to take this loss.

No historical events are exactly similar, but the Fed and its continued ability to put on ‘blinders’ as the corporate mid-size banking sector in the U.S potentially cracks, smells eerily similar to what happened during the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 when rumors became strong whispers and then turned into a nightmare. Please say hello to the possibility of another massive bailout from the U.S government, because J.P Morgan, BlackRock and other ‘banking’ mammoths do not have enough capital to keep everyone liquid and safe.

Nervous behavioral sentiment is rising its head and looking out over a dangerous landscape. Middle America should be prepared to react to the potential that their neighborhood banks might be in trouble. And the U.S had also better get ready for the very ugly word ‘stagflation’.

Risk Management: B Book Warning and You as the Hunted

March 18, 2023

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Risk Analysis Risk Management

Risk Management: B Book Warning and You as the Hunted

The dangers of day trading in markets that are geared in favor of institutional houses with deep pockets and their ability to sustain volatility, versus smaller speculators should be taken into account before you trade. You are likely the smaller speculator, and you are engaging in a game that is not fair, it is a hunting ground and you are often the prey. It will be your proverbial head mounted on a wall as a keepsake by a salesperson who claimed to be your friend and care about your monetary outcome, when in fact what you have done is provide them with a solid commission and the ability to buy a nice dinner and pay their rent.

A lesson from the past week during this recent banking crisis and the trading panic that ensued, is these circumstances rarely make you money when it is you who are the frightened one and caught in the middle of the ‘troubles’ and having to make quick decisions. Brokerage houses may claim that they feel your pain, but actually they seek your discomfort, because brokerage houses working in the grey world of global regulatory confusion often make money when you lose. You must check on your broker’s licenses and understand how they are allowed to ‘trade’ your cash exactly. Brokers licenses are vastly different depending where their company is legally based and the jurisdictions they must comply.

Due diligence should not only be done by the broker regarding you as a client, you should undertake due diligence on your broker. The U.K, U.S, Cyprus, Malta, E.U, Germany, France, Australia and other locations have a long list of different rules which force brokers to act in different ways. Some jurisdictions are much less stringent and allow for a gambling environment, while others have secure rules that protect you. And then there are brokers situated in other regulatory landscapes that are faraway and without hardly any supervision. Just because your phone is telling you that you are getting a phone call from a ‘local’ number doesn’t mean that the phone call isn’t coming from a distance. Brokers can use software to make it look like they are calling from a location you feel comfortable dealing with, when in reality the call may be coming from a thousand miles away.

First Republic Bank 1 Year Chart and Volatility

You are Frequently the Hunted because your Money is Valuable

Traders looking to profit in all financial markets must acknowledge they are frequently mere spectators, who are allowed to bet on a game being played by much larger participants that are capable of moving market values and causing violent conditions. You as the smaller trader are actually being hunted as a valuable commodity by brokerage houses working on the premise they know you will lose your money. You are their profit source.

You are not BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, J.P Morgan, your monetary losses are not going to cause a fear of risk exposure in the larger financial world. Your position of a mere 100,000.00 USD in the EUR/USD is less than a speck of dust in the financial world. You are likely a meaningless speculator to the brokerage house, only important because they see you as a money source for their profit. This is not meant to be kind, it is meant to keep you based in reality.

Small Traders must Acknowledge their place in the Universe

A more calm demeanor and acceptance of the chaos within the marketplace needs to be practiced by small traders. Allow others to be alarmed. Being tranquil within trades you are situated permits you to think and react objectively when the markets are going ‘mad’ and this is to your advantage. Using proper risk management and very conservative leverage is vital for you as a speculator. Attaining these capabilities are often difficult to learn, for some it is impossible. You as a trader will always be treated as an afterthought by the real cash market.

Emotions weigh heavy on the best of traders, trends created by the nervousness of the broad market as behavioral sentiment changes is commonplace. It may help you as a day trader to accept that your positions are likely meaningless to the institutional wagers being placed. Your trades do not move the needle, because your trades are not even part of the real marketplace in many instances. You are merely being allowed to bet on the game and this is a fact you should acknowledge. You do not have to impress anyone but yourself, using conservative leverage and solid risk management is crucial to stay alive in the markets. Do not get talked into large bets, use your commonsense.

Your wagers are certainly able to pursue the decisions of the larger players based on behavioral sentiment being exhibited which are affecting the markets, but you are merely betting on momentary tracks of momentum, again not being affected by you, but by the large institutional traders who are risking millions and billions of dollars. Your technical and fundamental decisions are following the more powerful mass, your viewpoints are not changing the way the real markets are moving.

Another piece of knowledge you must come to realize is that many brokerage houses are interested in you actually losing money, particular if you are trading on their CFDs, via indices and share prices within the virtual world of ‘B book’. Forex pairs, commodities and cryptocurrencies are treated by the brokers in the same manner, your wagers are merely ‘side bets’ based on the outcomes of the cash markets being made inside the broker’s casino. As the casino, brokers are taking your bets with the knowledge you are likely going to lose and they are quite content about this result.

‘B Book’ Trading is Not the Cash Market

The trades you are making believe it or not, are not going into the real cash market. Your money is simply being held by your broker who allows you to trade on the market price, and the value in your account changes per the winnings and losses generated by the market action on the computer terminal according to the real marketplace. Again, it must be stressed your wager is on a game that your trade is not in reality participating in. You are merely a spectator, think of it as betting on a horse race and watching from the stands or television. You are not running the race, you are not the jockey, you are merely cheering on an outcome and can win or lose money based on the result of the horse you have bet on. You have nothing to do with how the horse performs, nor the direction your financial asset takes.

Many brokers only want to make money off of you and literally watch as you lose all of your money. The money that you are trading is too insignificant to be entered into the real cash market, so it is entered into their casino instead. Let’s remember you are often not trading the large cash amounts your positions are quantified numerically, because you are trading with leverage. You are betting on the virtual result. Did gold go up or down? Did the EUR/USD go up or down? Who won the game? Your broker is the bookmaker. They are operating a casino allowing you to gamble.

Brokers are Not Your Friends, You are their Profit Source

Brokers who allow you to trade virtually do not want you to lose all of your money too fast, because they do not want to hear your complaints or face your lawsuits, they want to act as your friend, the key word being act. They try to make sure your losses occur in a slow manner, this so it is not so obvious that they do not care. Because you are participating in a theatre of the absurd with them – one in which they believe you will lose all of your money eventually, you are a mere actor in a play you do not know you are participating.

You are part of the center stage, but you are not participating as someone who affects the outcome of a wager on a financial asset, no, you are merely being watched by your salesperson who got you to deposit and the risk management team of the brokerage firm where your money is being gambled. You are the risk for them. You are trading on a ‘B book’, your money lost is often their gain.

It is much better to find a broker and platform that actually trades your money in a real system, one that is buying you the actual asset. But that is not easy and you will have to make inquiries by asking the brokerage company if they are trading your positions in a cash market or virtually. And to be a participant in the real game, you often have to be trading much more money than you have to risk. Remember one of the golden rules of speculating is to risk nothing more than you can lose. If you are investing long-term that is a different proposition, but the rule of not investing more than you can afford to lose is still very important and should always be given attention.

The ‘friendly’ voices you often hear on the other side of the phone are actually not well intentioned, you have often been seduced, this after being lured by one of their adverts promising excellent trading conditions. They want you to deposit your money, tell you they will guide and help you try to trade. Some may be brave enough to claim you are certain to make money, hang up the phone if you hear this bold lie.

Always be cautious, be suspicious. Ask the person you are speaking to, how much money they are going to get in commission per your deposit, getting a straight answer will be a surprise. The more cash you put in the more money they often make, while that seems obvious, what needs to be understood is that their percentage of commission actually grows – for the salesperson from let’s say 5 percent to 10 percent if you give the brokerage a huge amount of money. Ask yourself how their commission goes up when your money is supposed to be safe and secured and being traded in real cash assets. How is a commission of 5 or 10% being paid to a salesperson by a firm on your money deposited, and how is the brokerage going to make money? The only way to pay out such large percentages of commission is based on their knowledge, that most of your money will never be returned to you. They are counting on you losing your money to them – the brokerage house.

EUR/USD 1 Year Chart and Volatility

The salesperson will often assure you it is best to start conservatively, deposit a small amount to test their trading platforms. When you get comfortable and you have come to trust the brokerage firm, they will go in for the large ‘kill’ and try to get you to deposit large amounts of money. This will often come with the tacit reminder to you that you can only make big money if you are willing to put a large amount of cash into a trade. You have to risk to win is their subtle message. You do want to buy a larger house, have a faster car, take a vacation in some exotic location don’t you?

At the Racetrack your Horse is Not Going to Win most of the Time

Why do brokerages want you to give them a lot of your hard earned money and allow you to bet against their ‘house money’. Because they know you are not likely to make profits. In actuality you are entering a casino, they are just not telling you that. Again, think of it as being a spectator at a horse race. You are betting money at the track on a horse. The track that takes your bet is happy for you to wager, because like a casino they know most people are going to lose money while betting on the horses. They offer your enticements like better odds at the racetrack.

Brokerages offer you leverage to make more money. Have a thousand dollars in your account? They will allow you to bet 10,000.00 USD and in some cases 100,000.00 USD based on leverage of 10 or even 100 times the amount of money you have depending on their jurisdictions and licenses. Why? To increase the volatility within your trading position, because the bigger the trade with the house money using their leverage, the smaller a numerical value in a position on a financial asset has to change in order to cause a sea of volatility. Bedlam within your account and knocking you out of the ‘race’ quickly is the desire. The more leverage you use, the more dangerous the betting becomes for you. Brokers, like racetracks, entice you to make large bets on unreasonable outcomes by promising a bigger payout on the worst financial wager or slowest horse.

Why you Should be an ‘Angry’ Trader and Treat Brokers Suspiciously

85 to 90% of deposited cash and often higher in ‘B book’ trading brokerages are the expected net loss of speculators. Not only do brokers make money on your spreads, transactions, overnight fees (what may be referred to as carrying charges), handling fees for depositing and withdrawing your money, but most make money when you lose on your trades. How? Because they are not really trading your money, they are merely keeping a record of your stated position knowing that the trade is most likely to go against you. And when the trade goes against you, they pocket your losses.

Before you place your money with a trader, simply ask if them if they are trading your money on a ‘B book’ platform. However, note that your salesperson often will have no idea what you are speaking about because most of them are young or have chosen to remain ignorant about the way their company actually handles your money when you speculate. Those that do know what your questions mean, will answer you in an elaborate fashion ready with reasons why your money is not actually going to go into the real market. It is an odd day when a salesperson at a brokerage firm would actually admit you are being placed on a ‘B book’ because your speculative positions are simply too small.

Bonus Money is a Sign that all may not be Right with your Broker

Why do you think it is so easy for many of these companies to offer you a bonus to trade? Because the money really doesn’t exist. Brokers tell you they are giving you the money to help you trade and make more profit, but the money really doesn’t exist, again the bonus money is virtual – it is air. They are making it sound like they are doing you a huge favor, when in fact they are merely giving you more ammunition so you can destroy your own account, and also entice you to deposit more money later. They are allowing you to increase the size of your ‘account’ with their bonus money to give you the opportunity to use more leverage. You are being enticed into the dream, allowing you to think about that new house you want. They are helping you dream, but when you lose the money they will hold your hand and say that this is the nature of the marketplace and that the trade was a good learning lesson. Hints of doing better on your next trade will sometimes be heard.

How is it that when your account goes negative, that you are never asked to pay the negative amount? Because the money given to you via the bonus which was part of your account never really existed. The broker is merely touching a few numbers on their keyboard and balancing out your account to zero. You do not owe them any money. You can simply deposit again and start to trade and pursue your dreams once again. You are the fish and they provide the bait with bonuses and dreams of bigger houses to catch you on their hook.

‘B Book’ brokerage houses seldom put your money into the real market. Sometimes they might get scared and put your money into a ‘real cash account’ known as ‘A book’, but in actuality your broker is likely giving the trade to a bigger institutional broker who then puts the trade on their ‘B book’. In other words the bigger broker is acting like an insurance company for the smaller broker. Thing is, the large broker often thinks the smaller broker will actually lose money too on your bet when they take the smaller brokers ‘B book’ wagers.

Meaning if you actually make money on the ‘A Book’ and cash out of the trade, your broker collects the money from a larger broker most of the time – this if your broker essentially hedged by placing your trader elsewhere as protection. However folks this is not really your concern. What you should do when you make money is make sure you are able to withdrawal the money quickly and efficiently and not let the broker make excuses why it is taking so long. Suddenly, you may be asked to give new identification to get your money. If this happens, please feel free to get impatient. You will be shocked at how easy it was to deposit your funds compared to getting them back sometimes.

Ask this question too, how is your money sent back to you? If you have deposited money by a credit card, if you are actually lucky enough to make more money than you have deposited, you will in most cases not be allowed to be paid via your credit card. The money will have to be wired to you via banks. That is fine, but make sure your broker actually has the capability to do this. Sometimes they do not know how to do this effectively, because they were not expecting you to win money. Your salesperson may say that the money is sent back by credit card for all your winnings, but this is often wrong so it is best to check on this beforehand.

Most brokers are counting on the volatility of reversals, leverage that is too high or stop losses to knock you out of a trade eventually. You lose and your broker wins. It may sound like conspiracy thinking, but be honest with yourself and read the small print of your user agreements which you may be tempted to glance over quickly, or better yet ask directly if your trades will be put in a ‘B book’ or into a cash market. Now one other thing you should be aware of, your salesperson representing their broker often does not know your money is not being traded in the cash market, because they are not privy to the risk team’s decisions who are watching your trades and trying to determine if you pose a danger to them.

Authentic Salespeople, Retention and Risk Teams

Your salesperson is most likely kept as ignorant as possible about the way your money works if their company operates a ‘B book’. Because it makes the salesperson much more authentic when they believe you are being treated fairly and the brokerage has your best interest in mind. The risk team is watching to see if you know what you are doing or if it is OK to let you bet and simply relax in the thought they know you are going to lose your money. The risk team at brokerages often asks the salesperson what the level of experience of a trader is regarding the markets – and your salesperson will ask you. While these might seem like a simple and innocent question, what the brokerage is doing is sizing up the amount of risk you to pose to their ‘casino’. When you open your account take the time to notice if you have suddenly been given to a more experienced salesperson to handle your account. Often this salesperson is known as a retention agent, this person has been ‘trained’ to keep you ‘happy’ and engaged, enticing you into large trades and to get you to deposit more money.

Think of it like a casino where players walk up to tables to play blackjack, the dealers give you your cards, pit bosses watch from behind making sure the dealers are working well and keeping an eye on you too. Casinos and brokers are watching you at all times. Yes, good ‘B book’ brokers are actually happy sometimes when you win, because you will tell your friends you made good ‘investments’ and withdrew your money without a hitch, thus alluring others into the casino – brokerage. But like a casino the brokerage knows most players lose, so the infrequent winning day for a speculator is good because others will step into the arena – where the odds are against them. This is a losers game.

Not all brokers are bad, some actually have solid interests in you doing well. You must do your homework and know who you are working with by asking questions and investigating what you are being told. Being suspicious and alert will help you stay alive and not become the hunted.

Angry Voters and the Federal Reserve

March 6, 2023

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Forex Risk Analysis

Angry Voters and the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before the U.S Senate tomorrow. Certainly we are going to hear the words inflation and growth mentioned, this as the Fed Chairman speaks about monetary policy and the trajectory for the U.S central bank to continue raising interest rates over the mid-term.

Via prices in the Forex market since the start of February, financial houses have likely priced in two additional interest rate hikes from the U.S central bank into the USD, one of them being a quarter of a point increase coming on the 22nd of March. The USD has been mostly stronger across the board the past four weeks. This week’s coming Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings data results should be monitored on Friday.

USD Index One Month Chart

While financial houses may have accepted the interest rates to come, this doesn’t change the rather complex economic data in the U.S which is demonstrating rather stubborn inflation, while also showing growth is not slowing down as much as has been anticipated. GDP numbers reported recently from the States showed only a slight decrease.

How much more can the U.S Federal Reserve increase interest rates over the next six months without making the USD too strong?
At what point will the Fed become less aggressive?
While an additional .50% has been ‘accepted’ by financial institutions, will the Fed bring the lending rate to 5.50%?
High inflation and limited growth could result in political quicksand for many elected officials.

The U.S Federal Reserve is going to get pressure from both sides of the aisle in Washington D.C.. Traders should not discount their perceptions that elected officials are starting to consider the ramifications of the coming elections in a year and half, because this will affect behavioral sentiment in the markets. Neither Democrats or Republicans will be happy if inflation remains a problem going into the vote. Rising costs equal less money in the bank accounts of American voters.

The U.S public has a history of voting via sentiment generated from their wallets and the power to consume. Prices that feel like they are out of control will win no friends. While energy prices seem to have calmed down in the headlines, energy costs remain a risk and concern for manufacturers worldwide. The inability to save money for individuals, and lack of profits for corporations makes for potentially angry voting results.

There is an additional problem lurking. The strong USD driven by the Federal Reserve’s increased borrowing costs, the Federal Funds Rate, has weakened currencies across the world. Vulnerable currencies have spurred inflation in many nations which are producers of goods that global consumers buy, these rising prices are being imported into the U.S economy.

As much as international economic integration helps the world, the rise of coronavirus and its knock-on affects via costs were not anticipated enough, causing weaknesses to be exposed. The U.S attempted to save its skin economically by creating a massive amount of stimulus, which certainly fueled domestic inflation. The U.S might have saved the American public in the short-term, but the government faces a long climb upwards to fix the problems overspending has caused.

The rising costs of logistics and the spotty supply of commodities internationally generated higher prices in the aftermath of coronavirus. Commodity prices have become more tranquil, but the costs of production has not eased because weaker currencies globally are hurting producers who need to use the USD to purchase resources. The U.S Federal Reserve’s attempt to tackle inflation with higher interest rates, has fueled ‘import’ inflation. This is not an easy problem to solve.

The Fed will not say in public they want the U.S economy to slow down, this acknowledgement would costs jobs which rely on political backing. The White House certainly doesn’t want the economy to suffer as it prepares for an election within a year and a half, but quietly officials likely accept slower growth and perhaps recession may become inevitable. Both the Fed and elected officials are performing a delicate dance that may be interrupted any moment.

The Fed doesn’t want us to remember they said inflation would prove transitory almost two years ago. The Fed needs to fight rising costs certainly, but very carefully. The desire to weaken inflation is correct but a dangerous balancing act, because the USD remains the global reserve currency.

We Know What You are Thinking and We Don’t Like It

March 5, 2023

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Risk Analysis Technology

We Know What You are Thinking and We Don't Like It

If you have not been worried about the ability of technology to be intrusive, perhaps the potential of a device reading your thoughts will change your mind.

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