WTI Crude Oil 20260601

Clues and Insults: Forex and Equity Indices During the Iran Saga

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorized

Profits: Optimistic Wagers and Preserving Self as the Party Rages

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh certainly doesn’t want to have problems with President Trump. On the 17th of June the FOMC meeting via the Fed will make their interest rate decision known. Who really believes that during the first month on the job at the helm of the U.S central bank that Warsh is not going to fight to keep interest rates in place?

Those who are expecting an interest rate hike in June of a quarter of a point (0.25%) are most likely wrong. Yes, the price of WTI Crude Oil is high and the situation in Iran via narrative varies from one moment to the next per the reported incidents on the Strait of Hormuz.

However, just like the Fed there is a certain amount of reality that must be dealt with regarding human nature and behavioral sentiment regarding Iran and how it is dealt with via market participants. From the department of no news is good news: financial institutions and investors would like the noise to be kept to a minimum so they can continue doing their jobs and not be criticized themselves for potentially wrong outlooks. The art of making sure disclaimers are up to date is important for everyone who wants to stay employed.

WTI Crude Oil 20260601

WTI Crude Oil 1 Year Chart as of 1st June 2026

USD centric weakness was seen late last week in many currency pairs, but a quick glance at the majors: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY actually show the pairs traversing rather cautious values. The EUR has gained slightly for instance, but at its current levels around 1.16410 some may believe it is a safe equilibrium. (One that may be able to be taken advantage of by those with the ability to bet on mid-term higher trajectories).

Central Banks globally also want to keep the noise down in their various locations. Inflation concerns persists worldwide depending on the amount of knock-on effects that higher energy costs have on national economies.

Also adding additional intrigue to the storyline of wanting to keep quiet while volatility threatens the gates, is that many people with comfortable jobs in various government institutions do not want to step out of line and sacrifice their careers for the sake of being proven right. They would rather be proven wrong, but would like to do this quietly without facing consequences.

The fact that we are now in a situation in which we are afraid to undertake critical thinking aloud is going to cause problems down the road, but for the moment most will simply go on with their various duties and pretend all is well.

U.S equity indices have been having a massive upwards party since the end of March as record heights are attained. Certainly some long-term investors are simply throwing money into indices as a way to get positioned before the SpaceX IPO which is coming soon. There will also be the Anthropic IPO which is reportedly set for late 2026.

The SPCX which seems to be aiming for the 12th of June will create a valuation well above 1 Trillion USD for SpaceX. The perceived value of Anthropic is becoming a loud talking point among analysts in the tech sectors and they are keen to have the company join the 1 Trillion USD party. The cost of admission for bragging rights is getting more expensive.

There was a time when things like PE (price and earnings) ratios mattered on Wall Street. Some brave folks still whisper about such things in meetings and bars late at night, but many do not want to be insulted or possibly worse get marketing folks selling these high priced products angry. The reason for speaking softly about actual earnings regarding SpaceX is because the company is actually working via an earnings loss, and instead price to sales estimates are being offered as some type of guideline. Having said the above, it would be foolhardy to bet against SpaceX and Elon Musk. And it might be equally unwise to bet against Anthropic in a handful of months. And thus, the rush into equity indices because there is a genuine fear of missing out does exist. Afterall, we all want to be part of the party.

And that brings us back to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh who has the backing of President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, he doesn’t want to insult these men either. Warsh may be quite good at what he does, he might be an expert and have real world business experience, and that might be a real clue for Forex traders who think higher interest rates are coming. Warsh will likely want to keep his first months on the job at the Fed on good terms with the White House and the Treasury. Kevin Warsh might be a free-thinker and know legally he is an independent leader of the Federal Reserve, but he also knows he was hired with a stated mission. There is a pro-business, free enterprise administration in power at the White House. Bessent, Warsh and Trump are on the same team.

So again, while some traders may believe the Fed will raise interest rates in June because of concerns of higher inflation, it most likely will not happen. While the Iranian war continues to make headlines in the financial world and dealt with via sentiment decisions, actual economic U.S data will start being watched in the coming days and weeks and might even influence perspectives. Investors will get bored of the Iranian saga as long as its narrative stays somewhat tepid. Meaning investors will start looking at CPI and PPI numbers coming from the U.S next week and talking about higher interest rates that will likely not be delivered in the upcoming FOMC meeting. 

The price of WTI Crude Oil as boring as it is to say remains a strong sentiment gauge for traders intraday. Large players involved in Forex might believe this will involve higher interest rates, but on the 17th of June it is more likely that Kevin Warsh will say that for the moment the Fed chooses to watch energy sector costs with the belief prices will decline in the coming months. The Fed will not use the term ‘transitory’ which was used infamously during the Covid crisis and turned into a poison pill with inflation that was not effectively fought. What the Fed will likely do is say they want more info to be gathered and more clarity regarding the Iranian situation and its overall effect on oil prices for a little while longer. Some patience will be asked for and it might be granted by investors who want the party to continue via equities.

Day traders should expect cautious markets to prevail in Forex with choppy results as financial institutions weigh their behavioral sentiment and try to make believe they are not too worried about near-term inflation. The CPI and PPI readings next week will prove of interest, but the results may be brushed aside by market pundits.

In the meantime, the celebrations on Wall Street continue as folks march merrily into the frenzy. Retail speculators who want to pursue short or near-term profits on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 or Dow 30 indices need to be careful and might want to stay away from daily bets and instead engage in conservative positions that allow for a full week of results. The gains made since the end of March have been outlandish and likely will not be repeated anytime soon, but why try standing in front of a trend that can crush you.

Near-term considerations in these markets should be done carefully. The mid-term may be very different from where we stand today and our current outlooks. One thing that may bother some risk analysts is that it may prove wrong to bet against the current parade of optimists who insists on participating in dangerous conditions and profit, while they (the risks mavens) stand in place.

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US Dollar Index 20260627

The USD and The Art of Not Knowing

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Being Mature Enough to Know You Don't Know as You Watch the Marketplace

Ask anyone that typically knows how they gauge the state of the global marketplace for the near-term and you are likely to either get a solid, “I have no idea” now. Or a bunch of thoughts on what might happen, which might lead to being more confused. Simply put at this point, it is easier to admit that potential conclusions regarding the world’s current affairs taking place and effecting the global marketplace are out of most peoples’ hands. 

Even those who have duties within the higher paid grades likely are just as confused about the potential unintended consequences not wanted, and results they hope will be achieved. And what am I speaking about exactly, regarding the world and its state of affairs, is that even qualifying the particular topics are difficult to put a finger on. Ramblings certainly include the Iran saga, but Cuba, the Ukraine, the NATO pact, shifting world alliances and future ones are creating a whirlwind. Besides the rather noisy political landscape of the USA. Not to mention China and Russia and other nations with aspirations.

Yet, the global markets continue to trade, albeit within a confused haze it sometimes appears. But do not be despondent day traders, brokers and their platforms will offer you the opportunity to wager on results of the USD in Forex, and CFDs certainly contain opportunities in major equity indices the world over, various big singular companies, commodities and yes cryptocurrencies (apologies to Bitcoin fans – who insist it is called a digital currency).

US Dollar Index 20260627

U.S Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 27th May 2026

Iran War and Unclear Results

The U.S Dollar Index for the moment is near the 98.880 ratio, which it should be pointed out is near the values it swam upon the April 8th announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the States, this after dropping from its 99.800 threshold on the 7th when investors were more troubled. The ceasefire is still in effect and now there seems to be a resolution which is being hoped for by the U.S White House – although when pressed about what negotiations between Iran and the U.S will result in delivers a few different versions of ideas. 

Perhaps that is to be expected via the fog of war, but what should not be expected is an easy path to a genuine resolution. And even if there is a pact of some type, what objectives will have been genuinely fulfilled? But alas, that is a question for those in the future, because the facts on the ground do not bode well for ordinary Iranians who have yearned for freedom. 

The Fed Has a Problem

But again, let’s not dwell on things like the individual rights of people, money is at stake…..(that is humor folks, others can call it sarcasm). The price of WTI Crude Oil has dropped this week on the idea that a resolution will actually be accomplished between Iran and the U.S – one at least that allows tankers to navigate the Hormuz Strait. 

The price of WTI via futures at this moment are around the $90.00 mark again, this after moving within sight of 88.00 USD earlier today. At the end of last week the $96.00 mark was in sight for WTI. And the price of energy continues to cast a shadow that is moving over the U.S Federal Reserve and has large implications for the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. 

The mid-term versus the long-term in financial institutions as they judge their interest rate perspectives are likely making for rather entertaining dialogue. And let’s not forget ladies and gentlemen, the U.S mid-term elections are approaching in November of this year and are resulting in primary elections that are punishing Republicans who voiced criticism towards President Trump. The question about who will hold power in the U.S House of Representatives is a big riddle. Even the U.S Senate leadership may be fragile. Why is that important, because if President Trump were to become what is known as a lame-duck President during his last two years in office, this would produce different outlooks among investors. Stay focused on the money people. 

Our Forex Friend: The BoJ

The USD/JPY is now traversing its 159.490 vicinity again, and perhaps that is a bell weather for soothsayers to criticize again. The Bank of Japan is watching the Japanese Yen as its trades within sight of its weakest values, and yes, the BoJ can be expected to issue another warning to speculators once again about being run over by an intervention. The BoJ’s broken record about interventions have produced solid results for folks who are able to trade the USD/JPY with positions that can be held for a few weeks at a time – namely hedge funds, large players and some financial institutions. Retail traders trying to take advantage of the USD/JPY are likely suffering trauma via anxiety if their wagers have gone in the wrong direction.

SpaceX and Scams in the Cryptoworld

And as a bonus, let’s not forget about rumblings regarding SpaceX and another topic within the I do not know category. Elon Musk has set the table for an attempt at a 2 trillion USD market cap after the IPO for the corporation is launched in the second week of June. The value of SpaceX can be and will be argued for the next few years as admirers and critics lineup to be heard and spread sheets are compared regarding revenues against one of the greatest marketing giants of our time. Intriguingly, however, are hints that there has been a lot of cryptocurrency fiddling regarding how the corporation is going to allow investors to participate. Apparently there have been tokens issued in the cryptocurrency world that have promised some type of participation in SpaceX and most are being exposed as scams and have nothing to do with the company or Musk. Buyer beware folks.

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Gordons Bay Sunset 20260514

The Great Compression Part 1: The End of the Middlemen

by with No Comment AssetsBusinessCorporateEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementTechnologyUncategorizedYulia Viaman

Elevator Boys of GenAI

In the 1920s, every office building had an elevator boy. Although automated elevators already existed, people found the idea of riding in a driverless box dangling by steel cables terrifying, and delegated the role to a uniformed human they trusted, accepting the necessity to pay for the privilege. Over the years, people got used to elevator buttons, but the force of habit and the preference for human touch kept the profession flourishing for years.

The operators were so confident in their indispensability that they went one step too far: in 1945, a New York strike brought the city to a grinding halt, costing it hundreds of millions of dollars. That was the final straw, leading to a massive push to upgrade to automated systems. Within a short while, the job ceased to exist, entering the history books as the only major job category to be completely wiped out from the U.S. Census purely due to automation. The only one so far, that is.

Gordons Bay Sunset 20260514

Elevator boys were the cleanest definition of a middleman: someone who exists not because they create value, but because of information asymmetry or transaction friction. The history of modern commerce is largely a history of those “toll booth” trades, and of the technologies that remove them one by one.

Newspapers were once the only viable printed information channel, using their middleman position to bundle content with ads and classifieds, fattening their revenues. People accepted it because nothing else existed – but then the Internet broke their business model. Craigslist alone did more damage to newspaper economics than any editorial failure ever could; Twitter and Facebook finished the job. Today the newspaper is a diminished thing, sustained largely by institutional inertia and nostalgia.

Real estate agents had an informational moat – access to listings, knowledge of comparable sales, relationships with buyers – which was valuable in a world without Zillow. Once that information became freely available, their commission became very hard to justify. The agent survived by clinging to the execution layer, but that too is shrinking.

Here is where the story gets interesting. The companies that dismantled the old middlemen wasted no time building new ones. Uber eliminated the taxi dispatcher and the phone-in booking system, then inserted itself between driver and passenger for a fat slice of every fare. DoorDash did the same between restaurant and customer. Expedia aggregated what travel agents used to know and charged airlines and hotels for access to their own customers. These were genuine technological improvements, but the business model was identical to what they replaced: find a friction point, own it, and extract rent from both sides. The market rewarded them handsomely for this, for a while. Then the next wave arrived.

Generative AI is driving a change of extraordinary scale and speed. We cannot assess the impact of the tsunami from inside it, but we can see the fish floating belly-up, and extrapolate. The agentic economy is eliminating many roles that just a couple of years ago seemed staple of our service-based economy. AI agents will (if they haven’t yet) replace secretaries, clerks of all kinds, brokers, advisors, recruiters, customer service representatives, paralegals – and the buck won’t stop there.

What is happening now to companies like Capgemini, Accenture, and McKinsey is structurally identical to what happened to newspaper classified departments and taxi dispatchers. AI agents do not merely reduce friction – they eliminate the information asymmetry that made the intermediary necessary in the first place. A system embedded inside an enterprise does not need a consultant to explain what it is doing. It does it, iterates, and reports back.

OpenAI and Anthropic understood this early, which is why both recently announced joint ventures – in a parade lockstep – to deploy engineers directly inside corporate clients. OpenAI has built an elite, highly technical consulting wing – a multi-billion dollar venture backed by TPG, Brookfield, Bain Capital and others. Anthropic teamed up with alternative asset titans like Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, and Goldman Sachs to form a dedicated AI services company. AI labs are moving fast into services and deployment because model commoditization is a risk, and because adoption bottlenecks hurt revenue growth.

The Big Four are seemingly fine for now, touting alliances with the AI leaders, helping them scale AI implementation across their enterprise clients. However, professional consultants are clearly the next elevator boys, hanging by the thread of the “human in the loop” habit. The only chunk of the consulting business that is accelerating involves embedding the AI revolution into enterprises – and very soon, Anthropic and OpenAI will not require the help of PwC or Deloitte for that. They are the owners of the technology: why would they pay a toll for a booth on their own road?

The irony is pointed: the companies building the technology that makes middlemen obsolete are inserting themselves as the new middlemen between the AI model and the enterprise. But even this layer is temporary. Once AI agents can deploy themselves, even that layer compresses. The OpenAI and Anthropic JV story is the last gasp of the middleman era.

The real and durable beneficiaries of the AI economy are not the model builders. Raw intelligence, reasoning, and pattern-matching are no longer rare, expensive breakthroughs – they are becoming cheap, standardized, and universally accessible. Core AI technology is turning into a commodity, just like electricity once did – and the value moves both up and down the stack.

“Up the stack” is a constantly moving target. Right now, it sits in hyper-specific vertical applications – defense, aerospace, finance, and medicine – where proprietary data, regulatory compliance, and domain expertise create durable moats. It also lives in the integration layer: the software plumbing that turns raw AI reasoning into auditable, legally compliant enterprise actions.

In the near term, value will shift further to agentic orchestration – the “Agent Overlords” that coordinate swarms of specialized AI agents, manage workflows, handle exceptions, and maintain oversight across complex business processes. These control planes will become the new scarce and valuable layer, much as operating systems and databases once did. What comes after that is harder to predict, but the pattern is clear: as each layer commoditizes, the economic prize moves to the next bottleneck.

“Down the stack” is the physical layer underpinning everything, and that’s where the true moat is. Every agentic transaction, every automated workflow, every AI-mediated business relationship runs on cloud compute, which runs on power, which runs on tangible assets unlikely to be replaceable for at least the next decade. After a century of disruption, humanity has come full circle: the “boring” material world – acres, bricks, pipes, wires, water, and power – has once again become the real source of scarcity and enduring value.

OpenAI and Anthropic are the last of the middlemen: brilliant, richly capitalized, yet ultimately dependent on infrastructure they do not own. What sits beneath them is not a new intermediary – it is bedrock.

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AMT Top 10

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Insights on the 18th of May, 2026

by with No Comment AMT Top TenAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsForexInvestingRisk ManagementUncategorizedWorld

Valuations and Drinking, Bad Storms and Politics Amidst the Resilient Nature of People

10. Resilience: The Western Cape of South Africa endured strong storm conditions last week. One of the hardest hit areas was the Cape Winelands District, but electricity and water have been widely restored. And a collective of people have proven working together can produce solid results when needed. 

9. Spencer Who: The Los Angeles mayor race is growing intriguing. A reality star turned social influencer threatens to become an influenza for his opponents. This as Spencer Pratt’s campaign gets noticed for its entertaining social media videos. This has caused many folks to ask what has happened to the state of politics and meaningful policy. But if NYC can elect a socialist, why can’t L.A elect an influencer and make some people feel sick?

AMT Top 10

AMT Top 10 Miscellaneous Insights for the 18th of May, 2026

8. Two Trillion: SpaceX early investors have agreed to allow a five for one stock split, meaning the company (and Elon Musk) are now aiming for a potential doubling of its worth when its IPO is initiated – on Nasdaq – in the second week of June. Some very serious accountants will be kept busy trying to show how SpaceX will produce enough revenue over the next twenty years in order to make a 2 trillion USD valuation palpable to future investors.

7. Drunk: Brown-Forman Corporation will begin its trading near $26.28 on the NYSE today. The company is the majority owner of Jack Daniels and other alcohol related enterprises. The value of Brown-Forman Inc. in June of 2021 was around 80.00 per share. The sobering phase of the public – particularly among young drinkers – to avoid bars and clubs, and instead stay on their mobile phones has hurt share values in many alcohol related companies. There are also concerns that too many drink companies now exists. Before Brown-Forman becomes the life of the party again, it appears some competition will have to go dry.

6. Deals: Prime Minister Modi visited Abu Dhabi a few days ago, and one of the results was an agreement to purchase and store energy reserves on a large scale in the United Arab Emirates. Modi also confirmed India’s strong connection to the UAE politically. While always trying to maintain a non-aligned stature, India appears to be moving closer to an increasingly important alliance with the UAE – which has also aligned with Israel strategically. The potential of these three nations acting together will ruffle feathers in a few noteworthy Middle Eastern and Asian countries.

5. Populists: President Trump’s tendency to say outlandish things and then suddenly turn around and show a willingness to negotiate terms has always been part of his art of the deal composite. However, saying what people want to hear and then turning on a dime and not delivering is also a symptom of populism. Trump isn’t the only politician suffering from this flaw. What do politicians really think, and how differently would they act if a they didn’t need votes for themselves or backers to remain in power?

4. Wall Street: After attaining apex highs early last week, the three major indices have taken a step backwards. Near-term concerns are effecting outlook as financial institutions balance risk averse tactics to long-term belief that sunnier days will prevail. While the Dow 30 didn’t set a record last week, the ability of the index to climb above 50,000 was noticeable. Equity markets appear tentative as this week begins and folks seemingly wait for more thunder and its potential effects.

3. Emirates: The UAE was attacked by drones yet again yesterday, this time at the Barakah nuclear facility. The hit has been downplayed, but highlights that military conflict with Iran remains very possible across the region. It is doubtful conversations are being conducted with polite undertones behind closed doors. The U.S, Israel and other nations are watching Iran – and Iran is watching them. The price of WTI Crude Oil remains a key barometer regarding the markets and concerns about the war igniting in full once more. Prices of oil remain sustained above $101.00 per barrel in the futures markets. The UAE might not want to be a focal point, but it isn’t backing down either.

2. Hawkish: The U.S Federal Reserve may have to actually consider raising interest rates before they can realistically discuss the notion of cutting borrowing costs, particularly if energy prices remain elevated and spark a sustained inflation threat over the mid-term. The USD started to show renewed strength the past few trading sessions in Forex, this as financial institutions compare their near-term anxiousness to growing concerns about mid-term ramifications regarding higher fuel costs.

1. Ego vs. Hubris: The U.S and China summit held largely in Beijing this past Thursday and Friday matched competing politicians and ideologies. In one corner U.S President Trump spoke with a rather inflated sense of himself while he detailed policy objectives and his perspectives. In the other corner Xi Jinping, the President of China, might have displayed some hubris as he warned the U.S about the Thucydides Trap. Xi expressed his belief that China is the emerging super power and that the U.S is a declining nation. However, China’s economy is known to be suffering because of a myriad of complex reasons, and could face more headwinds if energy prices and supplies remain hard-pressed.

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WTI Crude Oil 20260428

Shift To Economic War Against Iran to Deprive Funds to Regime and IRGC

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessCentral BanksCommoditiesCryptocurrenciesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsIndiaInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsWorld

What If Everyone Is Looking At The Wrong Things About Iran?

The current futures price for WTI Crude Oil is above $98.00. The cash price for the commodity is above $103.00. While many people continue to fret about what endgame strategy the U.S White House is conducting, what if we are seeing it play out in real time via the price of Crude Oil? Is it possible that President Trump has a coordinated plan to starve the Iranian regime and the IRGC of its much loved and needed money? It appears this is the case.

WTI Crude Oil 20260428

WTI Crude Oil Futures Three Months Chart on the 28th of April

Simply put, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is a mafia. They stay in power using the tool of fear brought upon by their ability to be ruthless to the Iranian citizens. They are a terrorist organization in the truest sense. If you disagree with that assessment, you are free to do so. However, facts when they are studied point to the conclusion Iran is a terrorist state led by its regime and the IRGC. 

Iran has made massive amounts of money via its energy products for decades. The shutdown of the Hormuz Strait, or at least the inability to export Crude Oil freely, is putting a strain on global energy prices, and it is causing a major fracture in the main financial export of Iran. 

The U.S has not only shut down easy navigation in the Hormuz Strait, but it is also going after Iran’s cryptocurrency operations. The ability to receive and transfer digital money by Iran is being strangled. What if President Trump is not only listening to the opinions of his military officers, and Secretary of State Rubio and Vice-President Vance, but also Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has an abundance of financial knowledge about how money flows internationally and how to create obstacles.

If the IRGC is not able to pay its own members, and other adherents to the Iranian regime are only slowly reimbursed, the apparatus of the IRGC will certainly lose its influence. The inability to pay allies that exists merely because they are employed or corrupted by the IRGC likely is starting to cause fractures regarding loyalties. 

China needs Iranian oil too. And evidence is starting to be speculated upon that China is facing tough decisions about acquiring Crude Oil from other sources. China will not be happy about having to pay higher costs, this because discounted Iranian oil that has abundantly been used is no longer available. 

Equities via the major U.S indices have done incredibly well since the end of March. The Nasdaq 100 has seemingly forgotten about AI overbought concerns, the S&P 500 is within apex territory and the VIX is acting as if sunny days are in the forecast. Forex has been volatile, but the value of the USD is within known realms.  However, the price of WTI Crude Oil is high and it has gotten higher since the 17th of April when futures prices briefly flirted with the $80.00 realm – this before going into a weekend. And this is a clue that something is afoot, beside larger players speculating on what their outlooks are for WTI Crude Oil in the mid-term.

The weekend of the 18th and 19th of April witnessed talk of an end to the Iranian war fall short; and heard President Trump essentially declare the ceasefire is still on but with the caveat that the U.S would create a blockade in the Hormuz Strait. While the semantics of a blockade can be debated, the U.S has caused shipping problems for tankers that were supposed to ship Iranian Crude Oil. The U.S clearly decided to create economic distress for Iran.

The Iranian regime still stands, but its leadership is rather shaken. The IRGC is controlling a lot of the decision making for the time being, and it appears the U.S White House is trying to make the IRGC weaker by ending their financial lifelines. It appears that it has been figured out that an economic war which includes starving Iran of cash is the most certain way to create revolts inside of the nation. When the influence of money is eroded, and temptations via other spheres of power suddenly sound tempting and can be joined, this is when shifts in authority and leadership can occur. 

While many analysts wonder about the lack of an obvious endgame being announced by the Trump administration, maybe it is already being played out. President Trump has a large ego and he is happy to extoll the virtues of his ‘tremendous’ policies frequently, but he also has shown the ability to remain quiet when it comes to plans of action and carrying them out. Yes, this can be argued into the late hours by pro-Trump and anti-Trump people. But maybe Trump is simply telling the truth when it comes to the U.S having time on its side regarding the Iranian ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe the clock is ticking on the eroding cash pile the Iranian regime and IRGC has within its grasp.

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US Cash Index 20260424

Upcoming Weekend Nervousness: Does Anyone Know What is Going On?

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorized

Preaching Caution and Looking Like a Fool to Those Who Want to Profit

Can someone please tell the rest of us what is going on? Global markets via Forex this morning are demonstrating additional USD centric strength which developed yesterday. The price of WTI Crude Oil is above $94.00. Gold is languishing and around 4,675.00 USD. And although the 3 major U.S stock indices are all within their higher realms – one thing stands out – folks are uneasy.  But then again, the markets never move in one direction only, and perhaps current results can be interpreted as profit taking by those on winning sides.

US Cash Index 20260424

U.S Dollar Index One Month Chart on the 24th April 2026

I would love to be the person to tell you what is going to happen, but as this weekend looms making short and near-term bets still appears a fool’s game. Yes, it is easy to make predictions, but being correct is more difficult. Retail traders are suffering more than most market participants, this as leverage and a lack of funds to remain in a position through violent reversals destroy plenty of trading accounts.

There is talk of manipulation via chat rooms regarding the price of WTI Crude Oil. The usual dialogues can be seen – largely based on conspiracies via large players trying to blow out smaller traders. However, these types of forum chatter are mostly wrong. Large players are getting hurt too in the energy markets. Anyone who is taking a position in order to speculate on a quick hitting foray in WTI is betting on their perceptions. 

The problem is that unless there is inside knowledge of what the next words out of President Trump’s mouth are going to be, or that from Iranian officials – any pursuit of WTI Crude Oil at this juncture is a ‘vibe’ trade. What is going to happen from Saturday and into Sunday is an unknown quantity. Folks holding positions into this weekend need to understand they are wagering. And some may find they are quite profitable afterwards, while others grimace and find themselves on the wrong side of the next surges higher or spikes downward. Intraday trading volatility in nothing new however.

The USD/JPY is near 159.600 as of this writing. The EUR/USD is close to 1.16820. While a tourist traversing foreign lands may not find the Forex incremental shifts in value mesmerizing or of interest, FX traders who do not have deep pockets are likely wondering why risk adverse conditions are prevailing suddenly. But as a risk analyst, I must say that conditions simply may have been perceived to have been oversold in the USD by financial institutions, this as the Fed looms on the horizon.

However, my task as a risk analyst the past two months has been like a carnival barker, because while it has been easy to say that a show is happening within the big tent of speculation, I have been hard pressed to predict short and near-term directions correctly. Perhaps I fret too much. The optimistic thunder claps upwards in the stock markets since the 31st of March have been astounding to many. Hopefully it has been prosperous for day traders, but the likelihood is that financial institutions are the ones who are profiting more via their pension funds purchases for institutional clients.

This coming week the U.S Federal Reserve will make their FOMC decision public. This will be Jerome Powell’s swan song at the Fed. The Chairman is being faded out by the U.S White House mid-May. And somewhere when he is all alone, Jerome Powell may be having a quiet laugh to himself. The Fed will not act this week. Rates will remain the same – unless there is some bizarre move in the global markets over the next handful of days. Yet, Powell’s remarks will be listened to for warnings. While it is not in Powell’s nature to issue a ‘I told you so’ quote, and he is likely content to walk away from the Federal Reserve quietly, it would be captivating if Powell looked into the cameras and pointed fingers. 

But because Jerome Powell like most others, likely has no clue what is going to happen next internationally he will remain mostly mute (cautious as always).

And here we meet again, wondering what the next 72 hours hold. Will the Iranian ceasefire remain observed? Is it even a ceasefire in reality? The Strait of Hormuz remains a linchpin for military action by the U.S Navy and Iranian Revolutionary Guards via a cascade of ship seizures. Maybe that continues to be the key, WTI Crude Oil prices remain a crucial barometer. USD centric prices via Forex action seems to be a reflection of fear or positive thinking in the energy sector depending on the prevailing tides.

Last week there was so much optimism folks were talking about WTI prices potentially hitting $75.00 and lower, now this hope seems to be wishful thinking. Global markets will remain fast and dangerous, that is easy to say and is right, but telling you which direction assets will move, that is a bit different.

And there is the old standard test I use when an opinion is definitely asked for: if someone were to put a gun theoretically to my head and ask me what I think, I would venture to say things will remain quiet and optimism will seep into the markets before the close this weekend. However, I don’t like to play fool’s games, so I will leave now and wish you luck via your own perspectives because the near-term remains more speculative than normal for day traders – even if strict risk management is used. 

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Bits of Clarity for the 19th of April 2026

by with No Comment AMT Top TenAssetsBaseballBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementSpeculatorsWorld

In a World Filled with Bread and Circuses, Now a Dose of Transparency

10: The Risk Reward Show: Sommer and Petrucci will return to the airwaves this coming week, via sources like Spotify and YouTube, with their podcast starting after a long break (absence).

9. Hardball: Major League Baseball is back and the sport continues to attract more fans and growing attention with its quicker games, a new computerized strike zone, and maybe even more dislike of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yes, Shohei Ohtani remains a dominant and positive force in the baseball world.

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AMT Top 10 for the 19th of April 2026

8. Populism: Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic continue to display a wide display of nonsensical rhetoric and bold asinine actions equating into empty spectacles. An example from the Left is Zohran Mamdani the mayor of New York City with his socialist platform, which is certain to fail and equate into more people and companies leaving NYC for less expensive and friendlier tax environments. And from the Right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni who talks a tough game but consistently falls short of backing up her words when she senses she could lose control of her power base. The putrid smell of trying to please voters with rotting bread and circuses prevails.

7. Speculation: Gold finished Friday’s trading near $4,837.50, Silver around 80.78. Bitcoin is close to $75,570.00. 

6. AI: While the Artificial Intelligence hangover has been widely discussed for a handful of months, health continues to be seen via Nvidia which closed above $201.00 going into this weekend, and Anthropic PBC which appears to be aiming for an IPO in late 2026 or early 2027. At this moment Anthropic has an estimated valuation of 800+ billion USD. If Nasdaq is able to secure a listing with Anthropic it will immediately factor into the Nasdaq 100. Are some investors betting on upside now which they believe will be seen when Nasdaq reorganizes its index?

5. Optimism: India, South Africa, Brazil and other emerging markets have experienced Forex volatility like all nations the past month and half due to the Iranian war. However, in the past two weeks the Indian Rupee, South African Rand and Brazilian Real have performed better as global markets have calmed. The ZAR and BRL have actually outperformed major currencies over the past handful of months showcasing existing optimism within financial institutions dealing with these currencies.

4. Money for Something: Lefarge, a French company specializing in concrete, was found guilty this past week of paying ISIS (Daesh) and other terrorists groups money in the years from 2012 into 2014, this in order to maintain their business operations in Syria. While Lafarge claims they paid the money to keep their operating staff safe, a French court ruled Lafarge was buying not only safe passage to allow employees to work, but also paying for physical resources needed from quarries that were controlled by the terrorists. Critics of Lafarge point towards the company’s massive infrastructure investments leading up to 2012 and a decision to seek profits no matter the costs of dubious morality. Some Lafarge former senior executives involved have been sentenced to prison including Bruno Lafont and Christian Herrault. Lafarge and Holcim (a Swiss conglomerate) merged officially in July of 2015.

3. WTI Prices: The value of the world’s most famous Crude Oil went into the weekend near $83.30 via futures markets. The commodity is certain to open with volatility early on Monday, this as folks weigh in via their existing behavioral sentiment which will range from speculative perceptions to insights they hold to be true (but that could prove false). WTI Crude Oil challenged 79.00 USD momentarily on Friday, before sparking upwards as cautious attitudes likely ignited doubts about what would happen this weekend in the Middle East regarding potential developments. Wagering on WTI in the coming days for day traders may be akin to spins of the roulette wheel.

2. Apex Heights: The winning streak and surge upwards for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 via gains have caught some investors by surprise and standing on the sidelines. Some large financial institutions may find they have to explain why they did not participate in the rally which has unfolded since late March. The S&P 500 has gone up around 9.5% during this time.

1. Straight Talk: The Hormuz and whether or not the strait is open for oil tankers will remain a catalyst for all global assets until clarity is gained. In the meantime a whirlwind of noise and threats from President Trump, the U.S White House and Iran will remain a menace for all traders – small and large. Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed?

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India Rupee 20260416

Progression Upwards for Indian Rupee and Catalysts

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsForexIndiaInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

USD/INR Persistent Trajectory Remains in Force and Mid-Term Concerns

As of this writing the USD/INR is within the 93.2000 vicinity. The price of Gold is around $4,810.00 and Silver close to 79.50. Importantly, WTI Crude Oil is trading around $89.25. Global markets have turned in solid performances the past two weeks, this has been a two step progression for most investors. 

Indian financial institutions began to digest their worries regarding the Iranian war late in March – perhaps acknowledging the risks and ramifications, while adjusting outlooks. Then on Tuesday the 7th of April the establishment of a ceasefire was announced. However, after hitting a low of around the 92.2200 realm on the 8th of April, the USD/INR is back within higher ratios.

India Rupee 20260416

USD/INR Six Month Price Chart as of 16th April 2026

Yes, the USD/INR had been traversing above the 95.0000 ratio late in March, so it can be said the Indian Rupee has gotten stronger. Yet, there will not be many willing participants who will join a parade with the belief this lower trend can be sustained. The bullish trajectory of the USD/INR is not going to vanish.

On the 24th of October 2025, the USD/INR was near 87.7500. At this time last year the currency pair was close to 85.5000. A persistent and long-term move higher has been the theme in the USD/INR. Weakness in the Indian Rupee has been part of India’s economic story rather consistently for a handful of years. 

Narendra Modi has been in power since 2014, he is serving his third term as Prime Minister. His political party the BJP clearly has its chosen people within the Reserve Bank of India.

The government’s position of allowing the Indian Rupee to be weaker is not something they will want to state out loud as part of their mandate, but it is clearly not bothering them.

The pursuit of creating a stronger industrial and manufacturing base for India, including IT and software via good exchange rates for international clients is seen as a cornerstone to build demand. The quality of work and technology provided by the Indian workforce is good and this allows global clients to foster solid relationships with Indian companies.

However, the rise of the USD/INR to above the 95.0000 level in late March was a warning sign, that sometimes price velocity in Forex can become dangerous. And the Iranian war although enjoying a week and half of less noise, still could escalate into a problematic scenario for India that could cause additional concerns in Indian financial institutions who are trying to gauge their mid-term outlooks.

The USD/INR is an important part of this economic math and the prospect that higher energy costs, or in a worst case scenario – shortages incur hardship for Indian citizens and companies is an actual concern.

The current situation in the Hormuz Strait and availability of Crude Oil is significantly important for India. So is supply of LNG (liquefied natural gas) which Qatar, Oman and the UAE play a role. The supply of energy presents a glaring dark shadow for the prospects of the Indian economy should there be shortfalls. 

The 93.5000 resistance level has been durable since early April in the USD/INR. Stability of the exchange rate is crucial for a wide range of business in India, including banking and financial institutions active in the Bombay stock market – particularly since a weaker India Rupee opens the door to Forex concerns for foreign investors who do not have the ability to hedge if they are exposed via the INR too much. Foreign investors are needed in the Nifty indices to help values.

The near-term is likely going to remain a difficult path for the USD/INR and its outlook. The positive sentiment which has prevailed the past couple of weeks has been welcome and certainly stable conditions are hoped for so equilibrium can be kept. However, if the Iranian situation manifests into open military conflict again, or if there is a disruption of supply of energy that cannot be easily solved by India – then the USD/INR could once again face price velocity upwards that is uncomfortable.

While China may be getting the headlines regarding potential ramifications of its Crude Oil supply being threatened, India is estimated to have consumption that is ranked as the 3rd biggest globally. India’s ability to get a supply of energy from a diversified stable of sources is a key for the nation moving forward. 

The USD/INR will continue to move higher, the question is how fast? A slow steady rise in the currency pair – again, this will not be a spoken mandate by the Indian government – will continue. The fear of a rapid debasement is a concern. Financial institutions in India need steady emotions and are certainly hoping for the Iranian war to conclude with a sliver of optimism. 

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Morsels for the 12th of April 2026

by with No Comment AMT Top TenAssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexSpeculatorsWorld

Optimistic Hopes Appear Ready to Fade into the Distance

10. B-ball: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship concluded early last week with a rather resounding outcome for the University of Michigan who won their 2nd Men’s trophy, the first one coming in 1989. Michigan dismantled the Arizona Wildcats and then handled the Connecticut Huskies. The NBA playoffs will start this coming week. The Oklahoma Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are getting a lot of attention, and the Denver Nuggets might have something to offer.

9. Trump: A week of optimism now leads towards threats of additional noise. Peace talks held in Pakistan appear to have failed this weekend, and now another countdown has begun as the Iranian conflict appears ready to escalate. The U.S White House and President Trump will certainly make more noise in the coming days.

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AMT Top 10 for the 12th of April 2026

8. Logistics Advertising: Kit Kat and Nutella have been rewarded with massive exposure. The Kit Kat truck heist of 12 tons of product (reportedly said to be in a special F1 designed candy bar theme) made headlines. Kit Kat’s owner, Nestle, was obviously content with the free publicity and proof of demand. And a jar of Nutella floated across the Artemis 2 spacecraft unexpectedly this week, gaining international attention and sparking smiles from fans of the Italian chocolate hazelnut spread.

7. Creator: Yet another candidate accused of being Satoshi Nakamoto has been produced. Blockstream’s CEO Adam Back has been named by the N.Y Times as a potential creator. In the meantime, the real question is whether anyone but Iran (as they run their illicit shadow economy), Michael Saylor of MSTR and a few big whales consisting of institutions and hedge funds are really paying any attention to BTC anymore. The BTC/USD price as of this morning is around $71,600.00. Bitcoin was traversing near $126,000.00 in the first week of October 2025.

6. Greenback: USD/JPY 159.240, EUR/USD 1.17225, USD/ZAR 16.38540, USD/INR 93.0480. USD centric strength may prove solid this coming week and other currencies may suffer a bit.

5. Sideways Shimmer: Gold finished the week near $4.745.00, roughly $100.00 above its starting point last Monday. U.S 10-Y Treasury yields went into this weekend around 4.34%. Shifting outlooks this coming week will likely ignite turbulence in both assets.

4. Blind Eyes: More than a handful of U.S politicians have been featured as big winners regarding their stock trading abilities. Their gains far exceed the winning percentages of the overall returns made by indexes (as a benchmark). Little has been done to stop what many view as insider trading. There are many forms of political corruption around the world. However, a variety of places and people, including Americans seem to accept this potential misconduct. The ‘Stop Insider Trading Act’ has been brought forth in the House of Representatives and Senate, but the legislation may simply meet a slow death and disappear.

3. Inflation: U.S interest rates via the Federal Reserve will be held in check at a minimum over the next few months. The higher costs of energy will certainly seep into prices for transportation, manufacturing and agriculture. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may be quite content to leave his position May the 15th. The next Fed FOMC interest rate decision is due on the 29th of April.

2. Strait of Hormuz: WTI Crude Oil closed above $90.00 going into this weekend. When futures markets open early on Monday, the price of the commodity is likely to rise via increased anxiousness which will build into the mindsets of large players today because of the failure of peace talks in Pakistan. The price of Crude Oil remained high last week, only moving to a low of around $85.00 this past Tuesday, showing cautious attitudes remained. Prices above $100.00 will likely become a new target quickly for some who bet. Will an early spike upwards this week then start a counter reversal lower, or will a climb become sustained?

1.  Risk Off: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will get plenty of attention this coming week as behavioral sentiment remains fragile. Having skirted near its 200-days moving average lows in recent weeks, the indices have gained handsomely since the 31st of March. Will the upwards momentum come to an abrupt end this week, or have financial institutions been able to digest their nervousness and will they show a capability of remaining buyers?

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Gold 20260409

Intraday Blues as Trading Conditions Remain Perilous

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFinancial InstitutionsForexRisk ManagementSpeculators

Red Flags Persists for Day Traders and Hedge Funds as More Wild Surf Predicted

Risk on or risk off? Day traders and hedge funds, two groups who are known to speculate, have both suffered considerably the past handful of weeks due to the market turbulence. While falls of 4 to 5% the past handful of weeks for long-term investors can be digested with proper patience and accumulation ability, those who are using leverage or making monster sized bets on intraday speculation continue to suffer from widespread anxiousness within the marketplace.

Gold 20260409

Gold One Year Chart as of 9th March 2026

WTI Crude Oil should have gone back down below $80.000 in many folks thinking – and they may have bet on this strike price via options –  due to ideas of an Iranian ceasefire, but the target has not been met. WTI did in fact challenge $88.000 early this week, but it is back around $93.000.

With the weekend quickly approaching and concerns about what will happen when the marketplace is largely shuttered, March mayhem has opened the door for April surprises. Gold is near $4,737.00, and this price remains mildly upsetting for many who believed it would act as a safe haven asset that would gain during the war, but hasn’t responded with buying fever. Gold was near $5,180.00 on the 27th of February. But in fact gold has performed rather well considering it was riding a long-term speculative buying spree and its current price still remains well above where is was last year around this time near $2920.00.

The point? The markets still exists and can still be bet on. The parameters may have changed, but let’s recall at this time last year global investors were dealing with the potential of Trump tariffs which was an entirely other set of hypersonic conditions caused by noise. If you don’t like loud markets you can cover your ears. You can try to take advantage of them too, but day trading the marketplace via Forex, commodities and stock indices has always been gambling. Perhaps this is what you are looking for – price action.

Again, the global markets are not concerned with your feelings. If you want to cry, grab a tissue and sit on the sidelines until the big show is over. However, know that the Iranian war is certain to have an encore from either a new round of potential fighting in the Middle East via stresses caused by the said openings/closings of the Hormuz Strait, or some other entirely new flashpoint elsewhere. 

The S&P 500 closed slightly below 6783.00 yesterday, last year the index was close to 5,745.00. Sometimes the best thing all traders and investors can do is take a deep breath and believe in better days.

Near-term price action will remain choppy. That is very easy to say and agree to, yet it tells you nothing. It doesn’t tell you what the markets are going to do today or tomorrow. And the reason for that is that intraday performance at this juncture is being driven by swiftly changing sentiment in which momentum is a swirling sea. Technical traders may claim they have a handle on the price skirmishes via their perceptions, but are likely suffering like everyone else as they try to surf the rather wild waves.

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Markets Say 20260407

What Do the Markets Say?

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsInvestingIra SlomowitzRisk ManagementWorld

Ambivalence Rules the Day

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 7th of April via The Angry Demagogue.

There is nothing we capitalists like saying more than “the markets say….”. What we mean is that the amorphous group of individuals and institutions that together form some sort of consensus as to the value of “things” taking everything known by the individuals involved into consideration. Since no one can know everything, the idea is that the market represents the sum of knowledge of everyone who has money to invest – or, as we like to say, “skin in the game”.

Markets Say 20260407

Below is a graph from the start of the war until April 2, of oil, gold, 10-Year U.S Treasury yields, American and European stocks. Each should tell us something and in general all together they should be saying the same thing. However – that is not the case here considering we are in the midst of a major Middle Eastern war, with China and Russia watching with interest and Western Europe squirming with unease.

Asset Prices 20260407

Normalized at 100 via ChatGPT as source.

Those items that signify a flight to safety are the price of gold and the U.S Treasury yields, while those that signify a faith in the future of the economies are the index levels of the U.S and European stocks. A commodity that is directly affected, oil in this case, is expected to rise and it has, by over 50% since the start of the war.

While one would expect the price of U.S Treasuries to rise considerably as it is considered a “safe haven” by investors, it has risen just 4% as yields dropped from 4.31% to 4.13% (with bonds, prices and yields moving inversely. A rise in bond price is a decline is their yield – meaning they earn less for the bondholder). Gold, the other safe haven, though has dropped by nearly 12% since the start of the war. True enough, the price of gold has skyrocketed over the past year, but still while there is a reason why gold might underperform U.S Treasuries, it is odd that it has underperformed stocks on both sides of the Atlantic, in spite of the 50% increase in the price of oil – forcing up energy prices for industry. Stocks in the U.S have dropped by just 4.95% while in Europe the decline is just 5.8%. Neither number is one an investor wants to see in just six weeks, but all things considered the war has not caused a lack of confidence in the economies of the EU or the U.S.

People might claim that gold has lost its safe haven luster over the years, but that is not the belief of governments as India and China have been buyers of vast stores of gold and France decided to repatriate all of their gold reserves. They still see it as necessary.

So, what are the markets telling us about this war and the future of domestic and global economies? Regarding Iran, the supposed victors in this “quagmire”, the Iranian Rial has dropped 96.8% in 2026 and has moved from 0.00002378 to the dollar to an incredible 0.00000076 (that means that 1 million Iranian Rial equals 76 cents) the market speaks in one voice – no confidence.

Regarding the rest of the world the markets are not really telling us much of anything because there has not been a rush to safe havens as usually happens in wars and happened during Covid, nor has there been supreme confidence. The markets are, shall we say, ambivalent.

That volatility is high and that they move drastically on each Trumpian proclamation is more a sign that the algorithms that control the very short term market trends are mostly chasing the same thing. When X happens, sell Y is a race to the bottom by unthinking and unsophisticated (in spite of AI) analysis until that race causes the “when Y hits a certain price, buy it” or “when Z happens then buy A” algorithms kick in. After a few days or weeks, we can start to see trends as long as we ignore the record highs or lows. However, there is nothing other than “wait and see” ambivalence in the current market data.

While this does not necessarily mean that the “markets” are in support of the war, but neither does it see a debacle of any sort. The Libyan bombing campaign of 2011 lasted seven months with no real Western interests involved and the Kosovo ariel campaign of 1999 lasted around 3 months and involved humanitarian but not economic interests. The 6 weeks of this war, so far, is not at a level of “quagmire” for the markets.

If the markets are telling us anything now it is that while oil may stay high for awhile, the world is not heading south due to the war. This can change– for good or bad – but the markets themselves are not currently taking a stand either way. They are not telling us we are in for a rough ride. While we believe that this war will reshape global politics and alliances and create an economic boon for the victors, no one can be sure who will end up on top and who will suffer once the war winds down.

The defeatists around the western world could do worse than listen to what the markets are not telling us.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles and Missives for the 29th of March, 2026

by with No Comment AssetsBasketballBehavioral SentimentBusinessEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingRisk Management

The Iranian War Dominates our Lack of Humor

10. Final Four: The Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship will be set after today’s games. The Arizona Wildcats, our pick, advanced to the Final 4 by beating Purdue last night. Michigan is favored to beat Tennessee and the Duke vs. UConn game is anticipated to be close. The University of Illinois advanced by beating Iowa on Saturday and maybe the biggest underdog – if the Volunteers lose to the Wolverines today.

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AMT Top Ten for the 29th of March 2026

9. Jobs Data: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published during a banking holiday on the 3rd of April, this as the Iranian war shadows investment sentiment. Will potential jobs numbers results create nervousness on Thursday, and side effects Monday the 6th of April? 

8. Private Equity: Outflows remain a problem for BlackRock and other firms as deal making comes under a bright light. Investors are questioning valuations, lack of exits and money that sits in ‘zombie’ funds. Imposed limits on redemptions by some firms have created nervous indicators. Is the private equity problem correlated to lackluster momentum on Wall Street, this as desire for the next big thing runs out of marketing hyperbole?

7. 10-Y Notes: U.S 10-Year Treasury yields finished the week near 4.43%, Friday’s price action saw an apex around the 4.48% vicinity, highlighting nervousness. On Friday the 27th of February 10-Y yields were close to 3.94%,

6. Forex: USD/JPY ended this past Friday around 160.250, making it cheaper for tourists to visit Japan as cherry blossom season starts this week and lasts into early May. However, the Bank of Japan and Japanese citizens are not amused by the weakening Yen. USD centric strength continues to resonate loudly. 

5. Fed: Potential drama surrounding the U.S central bank and the replacement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has taken a backseat to the Middle East conflict. Concerns about inflation are legitimate. The Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to defend an interest rate cut in the mid-term.

4. President Trump: Speaking from both sides of his mouth (and his opponents might say another area of the body) may be strategic genius from the White House regarding Iran or prove to be a lack of focus. However, it certainly keeps everyone guessing what is going to happen next in the Middle East.

3. $100.00: WTI Crude Oil prices have remained below the one-hundred level for the most part during the Iranian war, yes – there have been outliers above. Will we begin to see sustained prices above the century mark this week? Short-term reactions to the U.S military potentially seizing Iran’s Kharg island would certainly cause price chaos, but could it also soothe some large players in the energy sector via mid-term outlooks? 

2. Good Friday: The holiday at the end of this week will be effected by anxious behavioral sentiment. The potential of a long weekend with plenty of noisy chatter could make for nervous investors this coming Thursday as they position themselves ahead of possible escalating storms.

1. Fear: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have entered corrective depths. Who will be brave enough to start looking for bottoms as the Iranian war rages with no end in sight? Will a reversal upwards emerge this week?

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