However, the current hedge fund environment is based on much more than picking the right stocks or bonds and all that goes with it. The current hedge fund system is a group of funds, many of multiple hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars that don’t make investments per se as they try to beat their competitors by the microsecond in order to profit a very small amount on a a large but extremely short term investment (we will speak of the money of unfree countries below).
However, the current hedge fund environment is based on much more than picking the right stocks or bonds and all that goes with it. The current hedge fund system is a group of funds, many of multiple hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars that don’t make investments per se as they try to beat their competitors by the microsecond in order to profit a very small amount on a a large but extremely short term investment (we will speak of the money of unfree countries below).
However, the current hedge fund environment is based on much more than picking the right stocks or bonds and all that goes with it. The current hedge fund system is a group of funds, many of multiple hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars that don’t make investments per se as they try to beat their competitors by the microsecond in order to profit a very small amount on a a large but extremely short term investment (we will speak of the money of unfree countries below).
First we must congratulate those who were willing to climb out from under their rocks (and bomb shelters) to offer musings. But let’s not digress….. to the AMT Top Ten List we go.
AMT Top Ten for the 22nd of March 2026
10. March Madness: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship is underway. Some of the more hated schools remain catalysts. Our pick, the University of Arizona Wildcats.
9. Bitcoin: Traversing above 68,000.00 USD currently almost feels like an accomplishment considering BTC/USD was near 63,000.00 in early February and again in early March. But do not blink your eyes. BTW, MSTR (the much loathed MicroStrategy by some AMT folks) went into this weekend below $136.00 per share.
8. South Africa: The USD/ZAR finished Friday near 16.96800 depending on bids and asks. On the 29th of January the currency pair was close to 15.65000. The South African Rand has done well over the long-term, but it is correlating to the broad Forex market concerns. Day traders should not take things personally, and accept that risk adverse moves – particularly as a major war rages is part of speculation. Near-term viewpoints can differ with long-term prospects.
7. Not Glimmering: Gold at the start of the Iranian war was around $5,260.00, it has fallen to a mark of $4,491.00 this weekend. Showing gold’s speculative momentum beforehand hand, outmatched current values. Where next?
6. Silver: Above 120.00 USD briefly towards the end of January, the commodity is below 68.00. Wild betting has caused a drop of more than 42%. Too much exuberance.
5. Risks: U.S 10-Year Treasury Yields were below 3.95% on the 27th of February, via Friday’s close rates are above 4.38%. Can you spell f.e.a.r?
4. Safe Haven: The U.S Dollar Index which had been showing solid downside is near 99.500, on the 27th of February it was around 97.850 – a rather legitimate rise. 100.000 may be a target by some large players.
3. Shrieking Hyperbole: WTI Crude Oil prices are certainly getting plenty of attention. However, voices expressing concern about WTI touching higher values starts to sound like an auction in order to get attention for the circus barkers. WTI remains near 100.00 USD and this mark is a barometer. The price is high and it can go higher, but expressed fear about $140.00 and $200.00 should be treated with disdain in the near-term.
2. Iran War: The conflict in the Middle East cannot be downplayed, but it can become fearmongering by Cassandras’. The U.A.E is still open for business and other nations in the Middle East are functioning. Yes, there is noise and the situation can grow more dangerous. But the potential of freedom for the people of Iran is a solid goal, though some may find this naive until it is proven. Can it become fact?
1. Coming Attractions: U.S stock markets are rightfully nervous. Friday’s close for the S&P 500 has brought it into terrain that challenges its 200 day moving average. The combination of weak technical attitudes and behavioral sentiment is a dangerous mix. Risk management may not be enough for day traders to survive current conditions, sitting on the sideline instead of betting on equity indices intraday may be more efficient and less lethal.
Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 17th of March via The Angry Demagogue.
In a recent X post, Edward Luttwak, the elder statesmen amongst strategists and one who we ignore at our own peril, stated that “The regime is impotent viz the U.S but all-powerful against its own people. So, regime change with bombs may fail but without bombs it might last for ever.” In other words, American and Israeli bombing is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Luttwak also made it clear that the Iranian people cannot overthrow the regime without native military support.
Not only will bombing not be sufficient to overthrow the regime, but American and Israeli commandos combined with Mossad and CIA operations will not be enough because for the Islamic Republic, internal, Iranian opponents of the regime are a bigger religious and ideological threat than Americans, Israelis or Sunni Arabs and they will always have enough Kalashnikovs and machine guns to kill 30,000 Iranians a night.
But regime change is not the only path to military victory. The mistaken views of the war when the opponents are “shocked”, Casablanca style, when they realize that wars are difficult and unpredictable and come with speed bumps, unexpected ups as well as downs and that not everything is in your control.
The first path to victory is one that is occurring now. That is the destruction of the military and command and control assets of the Islamic Republic. That focuses as we know, on the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the “Basaj” – essentially the IRGC’s domestic militia who are responsible for keeping Iranian citizens in line and are, for the most part, ideological hardheads. With other types of dictatorships, the embarrassing way their military has handled Israeli and American attacks past and present would have been enough to topple them. However, with Shiite fanatics who know no borders (morally or geographically) and whose main enemies are domestic, that is not the case – and no one expected that to be the case.
The attacks must continue until either the regime changes or until their military-industrial infrastructure is destroyed. This means its drone and missile production, its naval forces, air-defenses and underground missile storage and nuclear facilities must be done away with. It does not mean the nearly impossible attempt to secure enriched uranium. Regime change can lead to cease fire and negotiations but without regime change the attacks must continue until the mission is completed.
The second path to victory is the opening and complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. While there still are ships that make it through, this is the one thing that the regime still holds over the United States and the world. The missiles they send to Israel and the gulf will be degraded enough if the bombings continue, but the Western world cannot allow a vicious, cruel dictatorship to control any waterway. Freedom of navigation is one of the key reasons why Taiwan is so important (which Japan knows well – making us wonder why it has not sent ships to help with the Straits) and a key reason this war must be fought. We wrote the other day about the price premium that the Islamic Republic holds over the world (and there was a Jerusalem Post article quoting Peter Navarro, head of the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing state that the price premium is between $5-15 a barrel – we think that is understated). The Islamic Republic must be denied this ability to blackmail the world.
Of course, it seems that Western Europe is happier with the Iranian regime not losing, than with the American (or Israeli) government winning, but that is something to be dealt with later
The third thing that will bring a military victory is of course, regime change. First, the presence of a new leader on Iranian soil must be attained. This can either be the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, who has been encouraging his countrymen to revolt and therefore needs to show real leadership by making his way home, or someone, possibly a senior military figure, who is in Iran now. Pahlavi is the natural choice, but he must take some risks and show he has the pull and prestige with at least part of the military in order to be able to accomplish the mission of overturning the regime.
In order for that to happen, circumstances must be created where a few divisions of the regular army can protect Pahlavi as he enters the country and he can lead the people to revolt. Once a few divisions defect and with American and Israeli air-power, they can liberate territory, further army divisions will probably join in – assuming they see a path to victory. A revolution need not happen overnight but can come with the army moving across the country and the defeat or defection of some in the IRGC. A few million in Swiss or Dubai bank accounts will also encourage defection.
Without a leader and an organized armed force, the regime just needs small weapons fire to put down any citizen revolt – and they will.
Military victory can come either with the destruction of the drone/missile capabilities and stockpiles along with the forced re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz or with regime change. If the former two, then the Iranian people will continue to suffer, but the Persian Gulf countries, Israel, the United States and the rest of the free world will not. If the latter, then everyone except China and Russia will be winners.
Let us not forget what everyone has been saying since day 1 – that only the Iranians can overthrow the government and that will only be done if the regular army decides to throw itself to the side of the people. The United States and Israel can only create the necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for this to happen. Without regime change, but with the opening and complete control of the Straits, the destruction of the regime’s naval, air defense, missile and drone forces and production, along with the elimination of senior Basaj and IRGC commanders, will still constitute a satisfactory military victory.
Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.
You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/
Writing from within the storm, it would be easy to feel a strong sense of nervousness as the newest Middle East War rages. However, this is unlikely the beginning of World War 3. Traders looking at WTI Crude Oil this morning have seen the commodity launch over $110.00. But the price has seen a slight dip and is now hovering above $105.00 in albeit fast conditions.
WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart on 9th March 2026
Behavioral sentiment is nervous, there is no disregarding that notion and taking it seriously. Iran has been firing missiles and drones at neighbors and Saudi Arabia has been effected via some of their oil production. The Strait of Hormuz is certainly seeing an escalation in tension and is threatening to become a sea battle.
However, while the price of WTI Crude Oil rocks higher and day traders either make or lose money fast, speculators wager on short and near-term notions, there is likely a group of folks taking another approach and watching cash prices compared to options.
Yes, the intra-day price of WTI Crude Oil and all other energy sources will remain volatile near-term, but those with a mid and long-term outlook may be betting on optimism and the belief an end game will produce calmer prices.
WTI Crude Oil is up close to 40% percent when a mid-term perspective is used. Will the commodity remain above 100.00 USD six months from now? Will WTI Crude Oil be above $100.00 three months from now or even one?
This thinking may deliver some type of price resistance in WTI Crude Oil. Certainly, there is a chance of greater escalation. But even though it was widely reported that oil facilities in Iran were bombed this weekend by Israel, the terminals hit were on the outskirts of Teheran, not on the island of Kharg. As dangerous as the war has become and the potential of worse damage occurring, those who are striking Iran do not want to damage Kharg terminals – at least not yet.
As for endgame, Russian oil is being allowed to be sold more easily, sanctions have been relaxed. Thus, it can be said there are international efforts to fight against price spikes. There are concerns about higher oil prices causing bedlam via inflation for the global economy rightfully. However, at some juncture things will eventually calm down. And that is what day traders need to keep in mind as WTI Crude Oil has raced higher, the notion that tactically the Iranian war will reach a de-escalation period is reasonable.
Yes, there is a threat that Iran plays the an ‘Armageddon’ card and tries to destroy all vital energy resources in the Middle East, but we have likely passed that stage. Iran in many respects, respectfully, has been declawed. Iran can threaten, but can it really bite at this point? The island of Kharg is a key barometer, its facilities remain mostly kept out of the destruction zone, WTI Crude Oil may not spike too much higher.
As for highs, this morning’s jump occurred on fear, however the price has started to calm. We could certainly still see higher values in WTI Crude Oil this week or next, but thoughts about the potential of an end game resolving the current dangers, whatever that may be and no matter how long it will take – may prove to be an important ointment. Time shall tell.
As I write Gold remains below $5,000.00. Silver is slightly above $75.00. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 remain cautious. And my favorite exclusion choice – MicroStrategy is struggling below $129.00. The markets in general appear to be waiting for a dose of impetus, be it positive or negative. Some investors who are brave may believe assets have reached an accumulation phase as support levels get tested in equity markets. They hopefully also understand that the equity indices can go lower and they may suffer for a while as prices decline. And because of this notion, perhaps the larger investors remain ultra-cautious and are trying to time when they will re-enter the marketplace as a forceful buyer. In the meantime bonds will be bought as signals are awaited on for long-term positions in the major indices.
However, there is also a large contingent of traders who are not looking for long-term investment, instead they are hoping to take advantage of short-term price movement – positive and negative – depending on their philosophies. These folks may be part of hedge funds, or simply large players who believe they have the benefit of experience and know-how.
And then there are folks like me who watch the market and offer analysis on current conditions. I am of the opinion the broad markets are nervous and that behavioral sentiment remains troubled. While I know that experienced large players and financial institutions are accustomed to noise, there seems to be sense that an attitude of fatigue is being felt. People are tired of dealing with the constant amplitude of policy threats and risks. However, this insight regarding tired minds and markets may serve a purpose, it is possible long-term players will see current conditions as an opportunity to buy and hold.
If short-term players such as hedge funds and large speculators are too busy being nervous and assets are straddling prices in equities that are seen as potentially oversold by others, real value can be accumulated and waited upon to produce more growth. This is still a gamble, there are no guarantees. The markets go up and they go down. Cycles occur and new traders are often perplexed when their insights do not come to fruition. Patience is needed. And it is also good to have others in your ear who serve as contrarian advocates offering different opinions that you may not find agreement.
Perhaps you know someone who has an interest in the financial markets and is the same good friend. There is even a chance that you have worked with this person professionally, and have shared ideas on business management, organization and scaling trades and investing. And there is a chance that even though you like this person and find them completely engaging, that you disagree with everything they say.
Trust me when I say my friend (colleague) knows I am talking about them, and suffice it to say that I know he will completely disagree with my further comments, but also quietly embrace the words and believe he is serving his function as a voice of reason. He will not call himself a devil’s advocate, but as someone who serves to create focus. He is the person that says charge ahead, aim for an outcome and tell people what you think. He wants values to look for and timeframes to take action.
However, as a risk manager I frequently find myself being cautious, I try not to make outlandish predictions and try to remain conservative in my approach. I tend to think long-term, while he the trader frequently acts on short-term intuition with a focus on the future per his perspectives. But timing the market and exactly what is going to happen in the next five minutes, one hour, day and sometimes even a week remains a difficult and often an expensive game, I am constantly vigilant of this possible plight.
When I wrote that Silver appeared to be in a speculative mode and feared the highs, and told folks to be prepared for the metal returning to earth it was appreciated by my associate, but it also came with the question of when. When is Silver going to fall, he would ask. And I typically answered that patience was needed. And now that Silver has fallen he says, ‘you warned us that Silver would fall, but didn’t say when’, and he is correct. I cannot give an exact answer because I am not a master of the universe.
Day traders need to know that their CFD positions do not move the cash market. And even participants in the cash market are actually mostly wagering in the futures markets via exchanges and hoping for prices to move in their chosen direction only. Most people choosing to trade in the futures markets do not want to take deliverables of a commodity. Speculators in the futures markets may dream about taking Gold and Silver deliverables, but they know logically they cannot. The same goes for traders in futures with agricultural products and soft commodities.
To buy or not to buy is not the question. To participate or not to participate is the question. You do not have to trade every day, even if you are a short-term speculator. You can watch the markets. Sometimes the best trades you will ever make are the ones you do not pursue.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in New Delhi for a bilateral summit, the mood in India’s capital is one of profound strategic tension. The core of the problem is India’s massive appetite for discounted Russian Crude Oil, which has shielded the economy from high energy prices but is now causing significant financial and geopolitical risks. This move comes at a time when India’s most important trade surpluses lies with the West, raising anxieties about U.S sanctions and shrinking strategic space.
Trapped Rupee Problem
Since the Ukraine war, Russia’s share of India’s Crude Oil imports has surged from under 2% to nearly 40%. This has simultaneously inflated India’s trade deficit with Russia to nearly $59 billion.
The transactions are largely settled in Indian Rupees (INR). Moscow has accumulated billions of Rupees in Indian banks. However, because the Rupee is not fully convertible on the global market, Russia has very limited ways to use this huge surplus within India. These billions of Rupees are essentially ‘trapped liquidity’ – a problem neither country can easily solve.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, is shifting its financial allegiance. It is preparing to issue Yuan denominated sovereign bonds, a decisive step that deepens its reliance on Beijing’s financial system amid a cut off from the Western financial system. This financial trajectory clearly signals the next logical step: Russia will inevitably demand that India begin paying for its oil shipments in Chinese Yuan (CNY).
Structural Risk of Holding Chinese Yuan
India has never been comfortable holding Chinese Yuan or settling trades in the currency. That’s partly strategic as New Delhi wants to protect its geopolitical autonomy and position itself as the democratic anchor of the Global South while staying closely aligned with the West.
But Russia’s financial plumbing is now increasingly routed through China. As the Kremlin becomes more deeply integrated into China’s banking and payments system, its dependence on the Yuan becomes structural. Moscow needs Yuan not only to service Chinese creditors, but also to pay for its expanding list of manufactured imports from China. The Ruble, being a largely non-convertible currency, simply cannot support this scale of trade.
For now, Russia-China trade is balanced enough because Beijing still buys large quantities of Russian energy. But this equilibrium can shift quickly. As the Ukraine war drags on and Moscow’s defense spending rises, the Kremlin will be forced to rely even more heavily on Chinese financing, Chinese goods, and ultimately the Yuan itself, tightening its economic dependency on Beijing.
When that moment arrives, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be forced to accumulate Yuan as part of its Forex reserves to ensure the continued flow of oil. This decision, born of necessity, introduces a structural vulnerability into India’s financial system as the adoption of Yuan as a reserve currency subject to China’s capital controls.
Risks of Holding the Yuan
China may have both the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Yuan, but the currency is ultimately controlled by the PBOC, which makes it a risky reserve asset for India. In a crisis, Beijing’s capital controls could restrict liquidity and prevent the RBI from freely converting yuan into hard currency like the USD, effectively trapping India’s capital.
Beyond this financial rigidity, large Yuan holdings also expose India to CCP driven political risk, tying its external stability to China’s domestic decisions. And unlike the Dollar which can be deployed anywhere, Yuan reserves are usable mainly for transactions with China or countries in its financial orbit, sharply limiting India’s strategic and financial flexibility.
Strategic Win for Beijing
For Beijing, this shift delivers a double strategic win, cementing the Yuan as the dominant settlement currency across Eurasia especially among countries squeezed by Western sanctions and it allows the yuan to slip into India’s financial system indirectly, not through Chinese pressure but through Russia’s growing dependence on Chinese finance and India’s reliance on discounted Russian oil.
For Moscow, this is a reluctant compromise: giving up some monetary autonomy in exchange for necessary financial support from China.
For India, however, it introduces a new long term structural risk with a slow but steady Yuan encroachment into its trade and reserve system, operating alongside the dominant U.S Dollar. The oil corridor that was meant to offer an independent strategic opportunity for India is now becoming a channel which Beijing can strengthen its monetary footprint. In this complex triangle, India risks paying a dangerous tactical long-term price for its energy security.
Day traders trying to gauge markets may be feeling a bit of angst for the moment. Always wanting to participate when record highs are being made in the stock markets, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain under their respective apexes from late October and early November. Though the markets have produced gains recently, they have not come particularly easily for those who like to ride momentum waves. As always timeframes matter, it is often easier to make mistakes and be impatient when short-term wagers factor into decision making.
Gold has done well the past couple of weeks, regaining its upwards traction, but also remains under its apex values. The Federal Reserve will release its FOMC interest rate decision on the 10th of December, and this is what many in the markets may be waiting for in order to make their last big bets for the year per speculative plays.
The Forex market like equities and commodities continue to provide choppy behavior. The ISM Manufacturing numbers from the U.S came in below expectations yesterday. Retail Sales data and Consumer Confidence numbers last week from the States came in below expectations too. There will be jobs statistics via the ADP report on Wednesday and an ISM Services figure. Thursday will see U.S weekly Unemployment Claims. Friday will provide a rather interesting clue for Forex traders and likely influence bond yields when the Core PCE Price Index reading is provided – which the Federal Reserve pays quite a bit of attention regarding their interest rate decisions. The Consumer Sentiment Preliminary University of Michigan data will also be seen on Friday.
As Tuesday starts, day traders should also beware that full market volumes will emerge, this after last week’s Thanksgiving holiday in the States and perhaps a slow return to offices yesterday. The markets will provide plenty of action over the next couple of weeks, before the inevitable Christmas and New Year’s trading doldrums begin.
India’s economic footprint on the global stage is expanding significantly each year. As the world’s largest democracy, the nation achieved a remarkable 7.4% GDP growth rate January to March of this fiscal year. Yet, beneath this impressive headline, job creation remains tepid, overshadowed by slowing foreign direct investments (FDI) and lower corporate investments from India’s domestic market.
Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiative to attract manufacturing into India and boost jobs, the manufacturing share of GDP has stubbornly clung to 16% for the last decade. While India’s services sector accounts around 55% of GDP, the IT and allied services sectors contributes a mere 3-4% of total employment. Even after the last two decades in which India’s Asian neighbors have shifted labor force out of agriculture and into high scale manufacturing, 45% of India’s workforce still are employed in agriculture and aligned services constituting only 15-17% of GDP.
Speculative Capital, Excessive Credit and Rising Financial Risk
Between 2003 and 2023, India attracted approximately $275 Billion USD from foreign capital inflows, encompassing mostly equity and debt foreign portfolio investments. These capital injections are speculative in nature, primarily chasing returns in financial markets, rather than being directly invested into long-term productive infrastructure like manufacturing and export oriented industries.
Interestingly, India’s public sector banks especially between 2008 and 2015 aggressively lent to infrastructure, real estate and capital intensive projects. The state owned banks tried to fill the gap left behind by private investors. A substantial share of these loans later turned into non-performing loans, exacerbating a duel crisis as corporate and bank balance sheets came under severe stress within a few years. The government of India stepped in and injected 3.1 lakh crore Rupees ($45 Billion USD) to recapitalize the struggling banks, and also orchestrated mergers of weaker banks with stronger banks. India’s citizens helped cover these costs via higher taxes and hidden banking charges.
Reserve Bank of India: FX Reserves and Liquidity Dynamics
As of financial year 2025, the RBI’S Foreign Exchange Reserves stand at around $696 billion USD. While a stronger reserve buffer is crucial for maintaining external stability, the Reserve Bank of India’s purchase of foreign currency to build reserves leads to problems with domestic Rupee liquidity and creates liabilities for the RBI’s balance sheet. Unless it’s not fully absorbed via Open Market operations, it will end up as excess liquidity in the banking system.
Post 2020 and the Covid19 pandemic, loose monetary policy and excess liquidity within the banking system has culminated with more reckless lending. Unsecured retail credit particularly in personal loans, credit cards and consumer finance is troubling. Non-banking financial companies (shadow banking) and fintech enterprises also expanded rapidly into this segment and now pose risks.
India Falling into Debt Trap
Per a recent survey conducted by the RBI, household financial savings have sharply declined to a five decade low of 5.1% of GDP in FY2023, down from 11.5% in 2021. Concurrently, household liabilities have risen, particularly in the unsecured credit segment.
Delinquencies in small ticket personal loans and “Buy Now, Pay Later“ programs are on the rise, prompting the RBI to intervene recently with tightening of personal loan norms in late 2023. This dynamic suggests that excessive credit creation, unaccompanied by productive or real income growth, is fueling a fragile boom in consumption backed predominately by debt especially among middle and lower income groups.
Lower Net Foreign Direct Investment amid Higher Repatriation
Even with coordinated efforts from the likes of Apple, Foxconn (Hon Hai Technology Group) and other electronics companies setting up facilities, and the assembly of manufactured goods like iPhones as part of the “China Plus“ strategy, a more comprehensive method of doing business and improved proactive FDI policy is needed. Overall results are still falling short. Evidence shows many companies continue to choose Vietnam and Mexico over India, which is clearly reflected in the lower net FDI figures in India’s Balance of Payments. In financial year 2024-25, net FDI fell 96% to $353 million USD, caused by a surge of money being repatriated out of India led by foreign companies, and also increased foreign investments by Indian companies to other nations, per the Hindu magazine.
The irony is that India needs foreign capital to finance its current accounts deficit, long-term capital investment would boost jobs and increase wages. As the central Indian government practices an austerity drive and its corporations show an unwillingness to invest, India needs higher foreign capital at this crucial juncture. How will India achieve this task? Without better employment and raising wages, India’s celebrated growth faces risks from underlying cracks.
Holiday chocolate about to get more expensive? Cocoa and Coffee futures are hitting highs again. Someone, somewhere is making a lot of money off of the surges.
If you are a day trader trying to pursue these commodities you need deep pockets and conservative leverage (if at all). The reversals higher in Cocoa and Coffee futures since November have been fast and dangerous, even for the large players. The notion the market is overbought is logical, but it has also been fatal for short sellers.
10. France Falls: President Macron’s leadership is in peril after his anointed Prime Minister, Michael Bernier, suffered a no confidence vote outcome. French politics and finances are in shambles. Life for French citizens goes on as their politicians battle for their jobs, supremacy of voice and egos. With the restoration and presentation publicly of Notre Dame Cathedral yesterday, Macron now has to find something else to divert attention away from his misappropriation of power.
9. 100,000: Bitcoin came within sight of the 104,000 USD vicinity this Thursday, then sunk with a rapid pace and challenged 92,000. Once again traversing near 100 grand, large BTC whales and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor and his cult of followers are likely celebrating. However, if the wind changes direction what kind of damage will the low tides create this time for Bitcoin and speculative leveraged positions? The price of BTC/USD as of this writing is near 99,500.
8. Al-Assad: The Syrian regime is apparently coming to an end after 50 plus years in power. Bashar al-Assad’s whereabouts are unknown. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah appear for the moment to be big losers in this power play. The many factions will now have to see if they can create a semblance of government, but that remains doubtful. Syria will be a quagmire in the coming months as its cauldron stirs.
7. Martial Law: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol startled Asia and foreign investors by declaring martial law this past week, making one of the worst political miscalculations in recent memory. Yoon was quickly forced to rescind the decision. The USD/KRW spiked and KOSPI Composite sank via the instability. However, the South Korean National Assembly has shown the ability to provide leadership and display power of law prevails, this as they try to calm their citizens concerns and investor sentiment.
6. Roasted: Coffee Arabica has boiled again and commodity’s price is fighting within apex levels. Like Cocoa, both Arabica and Robusta Coffee have surged the past year as large players have created a strangulated grip which suggests the markets may be ‘cornered’. While some analysts are quick to point out weather conditions as a reason for the higher prices, the tenacity of Coffee and Cocoa to sustain upwards momentum is intriguing but also suspicious.
5. FX and Data: U.S jobs numbers this Friday were marginally better than anticipated and the Average Hourly Earnings came in slightly above expectations. Economists from different schools of thought are debating the potential of recession and inflation concerns, versus those who believe growth, greater transparency of U.S fiscal mandates and elimination of a bloated budget will be achieved when Trump’s economic policies takeover. Globally Forex conditions are showing signs of fragility because of the threat of tariffs and trade concessions by nations which may need to be made. Yet, it is quite possible the ‘bad news’ consisting of accusations of unfair trade agreements by Trump, and the reactions which have been cooked into the EUR, GBP, JPY, ZAR, MXN, CAD, NZD and others is overdone. While there could certainly be more weakness in major global currencies paired against the USD, upside potential mid-term may be more positive compared to near-term drawdowns. Retail traders still face difficult technical perceptions in the days ahead because financial institutions also remain shaky regarding their outlooks.
4. Pardon Me Joe: President Biden has forgiven his son, Hunter Biden, for crimes known and unknown for an eleven year period – that is not a round number ladies and gentlemen, with a Presidential Pardon. Why 11 years? Why not 10 or 15? There is conjecture that Joe Biden is also considering preemptive pardons for people his administration feels may face the wrath of the incoming Trump White House. However, if pardons are given to the likes of Anthony Fauci, won’t the pardons awarded to those who have not been charged with a crime yet look like an admission of guilt?
3. Central Banks: The ECB will deliver their interest rate decision on the 12th and the Federal Reserve will announce their Fed Funds Rate on the 18th. Behavioral sentiment however is seemingly more focused on the threat of potential storms that could suddenly appear due to the Trump effect. The ECB and Fed are both expected to cut their interest rates by a quarter of a point, while it appears many financial institutions no longer believe the Fed will cut again in January.
2. Chinese Gold: Tucked away in the quiet corners of the business news has been the discovery of a massive gold ore deposit in China. Some geologists claim the Wangu gold field could have up to 1,100 tons of the precious metal. If correct and the amount of gold meets or exceeds the expectations of the experts, the question about this becoming a deflationary event for gold is intriguing but likely wrong. Importantly, the gold will be a long-term benefit for China and potentially create a stronger national currency via the Renminbi (China Yuan). Perhaps also solidifying the idea of using the reserve as part of the backbone for a potential BRICS ‘Unit’ currency if and when that day ever arrives. Gold closed at nearly 2633.00 USD per ounce before going into this weekend.
1. Trump Effect: WTI Crude Oil is around 66.78 USD as the promise of easier energy production for U.S companies has created the conviction of steady and less expensive supply. The USD remains in the stronger elements of its long-term Forex range, and folks betting against the strength of the USD need to remain cautious. BRICS has been warned about not infringing on the USD by Donald Trump, and some member nations of the organization have affirmed they do not seek a BRICS currency (yet). Tariffs have been threatened, but China has responded by showing it has the ability to create potential hinderances this week via a tough negotiation stance by threatening to stop export of rare earth metals to the U.S. Mexico and Canada have felt the verbal wrath of the President-elect already and started to react. All of this while Donald Trump still has six full weeks before taking power.
