Commodities Archives - Angry Meta Traders

Fed Decision: Two Sides of a Dangerous Coin

September 16, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Assets Behavioral Sentiment Central Banks Commodities Economy Equities Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Financial Institutions Forex India Investing Risk Management Speculators Uncategorized World

The Fed Should Not Raise Rates But It Will

What and who you believe will play an important part in today’s market for speculators. While investors who are looking at long-term prisms can comfortably wait on the decision from the Fed’s FOMC regarding interest rates later today, retail traders who are trying to profit on near-term wagers via momentum and are seeking to gain an advantage by knowing which way the wind is blowing have a difficult task ahead. Via results in the Forex market it appears many financial institutions have braced already for an interest rate hike of a quarter basis point.

However, what if the financial institutions and many analysts are wrong? What if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other FOMC voting members believe the White House and think that inflation will erode as price pressures ease when there is a remedy to the Iranian conflict. That would mean that they could debate with other Fed officials for no interest rate hike. Because if the Fed were to raise interest rates later today, thus making borrowing costlier for businesses and consumers – and potentially putting more strain on the U.S debt payments because of increasing Treasury yields, it would still not solve the higher costs of energy. (There is an argument below which negates this possible yield problem and one that is likely to be heard from some economists).

U.S 10-Y Treasury Yields Five Year Chart as of 16th September 2026

Yes, there is demand for fuel globally, but the demand for energy is not going to decrease because the U.S Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. In fact, it could make costs more expensive for businesses who are likely burning money via increased credit lines already created, this to transact their currently higher costs to guarantee effective supply of fuel to fund their logistics and manufacturing which they had not planned for while making their initial 2026 budget estimates prior to the Iranian war. In other words, a higher Federal Funds Rate will equate into higher costs for businesses.

$100.00+ WTI Crude Oil is Not A Friend

Per the other side of the coin, WTI Crude Oil has turned more expensive and volatile since March of this year. For a moment it looked like relief would be delivered via the supposed MoU between Iran and the U.S. WTI Crude Oil went below $80.00 periodically when optimism was peaked by White House rhetoric and calm waters in the Hormuz Strait were reported. Hopes for a return to WTI Crude Oil below $70.00 were viewed as legitimate.

However, the tranquility sought has vanished in the past couple of weeks and has grown more anxious as Saudi Arabia has become an important actor in the Middle East conflict as the Houthis and Iraqi militias cause havoc for the Saudi Arabian government. The price of WTI Crude Oil is now stubbornly above $100.00 and rumors about how Saudi Arabia is dealing with its own military confrontation and the way it is able to supply its own Crude Oil are confounding.

Which brings us back to the initial question regarding the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh, who will the Fed Chair listen to? Does he and other voting members of the FOMC believe there will be a quick fix to what has become stubbornly higher costs for WTI Crude Oil which is creating inflation? Or do they now have to objectively consider what may have been perceived as a temporary blip of elevated expenditures for the U.S economy as a potentially long-term problem? If Warsh and his cohorts believe the Iranian situation is going to find a remedy within the next four to five months, they should NOT raise interest rates today.

Again, while higher fuels costs are problematic, raising interest rates is not going to lower demand for WTI Crude Oil which is the chief instigator of higher inflation globally. It is not a question of who believes President Trump’s tantrums, it is a question concerning viability of a real end game to the Iranian situation. Plenty of Crude Oil exists, its production capabilities are strong, it is Middle East supply to Asia, Europe and Africa that is causing a problem and the higher cash and futures pricing for WTI Crude Oil. Thus, the lynchpin remains Iran. If their government capitulates and bends a knee, opening up the Hormuz Strait and stops plying its influence on the Houthis of Yemen and other militia groups in Iraq that are now causing problems for Saudi Arabia the price of WTI Crude Oil will drop dramatically.

If the situation is not rectified and the price of WTI Crude Oil remains elevated and Saudi Arabia doesn’t handle their confrontation which is turning increasingly militaristic, then it will not solve a higher interest rate initiative from the U.S Federal Reserve – unless the Fed is merely looking to decrease Treasury yields by increasing global demand for the bonds – thus hoping to increase their desirability.

Old School vs. New School

Today’s decision from the Fed comes down to old text books and failed central bank policies versus new economic considerations. An interest rate hike from the Fed may actually make circumstance more difficult for governments around the world trying to balance their own books.

For instance, higher yields on U.S debt are causing problems in India where some investors are shedding Indian Rupee assets and seeking the high yielding U.S Treasuries not only because of a ‘guaranteed’ bond yield, but the fact that their assets are stored in USD which is likely going to remain stronger than the INR over the next few years if a historical track record is looked upon. This is a saga that will play out in other emerging market nations too as financial institutions chase ‘secure’ profits.

5 is a Dangerous Number

So not only does the Fed face a problem regarding an interest rate hike that will not solve inflation problems caused by a war that is effecting prices because there is a fear of supply logistics, but there could be a knock-on effect regarding debt. U.S 10-Y Treasury yields near and above 5% is a clear warning side that investors are uncomfortable, this no mere speculative gain achieved by bond vigilantes.

Another point, if the Fed were to raise interest rates today, it could in theory cause greater demand for U.S Treasuries from abroad and thus lower the Treasury yields for the moment – thus making the argument for a higher interest rate more dignified for those who want to raise rates. However, if the Fed were to say no to interest rate increases for now and point to a belief the U.S conflict with Iran is going to conclude sooner rather than later and said the U.S economy faces distress because of the higher fuels costs alone, this could also solve confidence problems.

U.S debt stands above 40 USD trillion, lower yields are a desire, but lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers are wanted too. So what will the Fed do today………..drumroll please…………the Fed will raise interest rates – making a mistake. And will show it fears a long-term risk scenario between Iran and the U.S and problems for Saudi Arabia. The USD will see plenty of volatility. Confidence will not be shown by the Federal Reserve today and this will be problematic.

Stage presence from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is going to be extremely important today. He has failed in his previous two FOMC Press Conferences to look confident while speaking and answering questions. His speech at Jackson Hole in late August also proved lackluster.

And this is where is gets more dangerous for Warsh and the U.S White House, because of President Trump’s ability to change his tactics quickly – there is a lack of confidence among investors who are trying to gauge their outlooks for the mid-term and beyond.

Kevin Warsh will find it difficult to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Many folks will walk away disgruntled if an interest rate is introduced and no clear guideline is mentioned regarding what is next regarding other potential rate hikes – or a plan to actually lower the Federal Funds Rate. The U.S economy while strong could easily be sent into a recession with an interest rate hike and sustained higher WTI Crude Oil costs.

Behavioral sentiment is going to remain on a toxic tightrope unless confidence is delivered. While individual perceptions about what should be done are important, understanding the mindset of the U.S Federal Reserve is crucial. Eliminating our own personal beliefs and bias from trading decisions and acting on what realities may be demonstrated are vital to profit.

Iran’s Last Stand or a Humbled Saudi Arabia?

September 15, 2026

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Assets Commodities Economy Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Investing Ira Slomowitz Risk Management Uncategorized World

Either bin-Salman or the Islamic Republic will Survive

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 15th of September via The Angry Demagogue.

The Houthis have not only pushed back and regained ground lost in the Saudi offensive against them in Yemen, they have taken Saudi backed ground and are moving forward. They seem to be moving at will and are now in total control of the Bab al Mandab Straits and are looking to surround and then capture the port of Aden. According to Or ben Yehezkel of the Telegram site 301 Ha’Olam Ha’aravi, which consists of a group who are fluent in Arabic and Farsi, the Houthis are moving quickly and if they take the port of Aden, the main port of Saudi backed Yemen, they will organize, along with the Shiite militia’s in Iraq to invade Saudi Arabia.

Although they don’t have an air force, the Houthis have managed to gain ground against an air force with over 220 advanced fighters, 8 AWACS for air coordination and over 20 refueling aircraft. With their missiles and drones, the Houthis have managed to cause severe damage to Saudi Air Force bases and have all but neutralized Saudi air superiority.

Iran’s Last Stand or a Humbled Saudi Arabia?

It seems that the Islamic Republic has given up on getting Israel out of Lebanon and saving Hezbollah and instead is concentrating on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States with the goal of forcing the U.S out of the region. If they do in fact take Aden, the Houthis can go up the coast to Mecca and Madinah and meet Iraqi-Shiite militias there as they attack across northern Saudi Arabia. This will force the Saudis to defend what is as important for them, reputation-wise, as oil – and that is the holy cities of Mecca and Madinah. For the Houthis the coastal route is do-able. From Iraq it is a 20 hour drive from Iraq to Mecca (a bit shorter to Madinah) through harsh dessert terrain – although there are paved roads. Alternatively, the Iraqi militias could attack in the Gulf area (either going through or avoiding Kuwait) while the Houthis rush to Mecca, forcing the Saudis to split forces.

For the U.S, ground attacks in Saudi Arabia proper, putting American bases and troops at risk, will force them to intervene so as to save U.S bases as well as Saudi honor. It is not that the Iranian Islamists think they can take over Saudi Arabia, only that they can embarrass it into submission. In the Arab and Moslem world, pride is more important than fact and a near defeat might embarrass the ibn-Saud kingdom enough to rattle its self confidence. The Mecca Accords between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have shown their impotence as neither the Turkish nor the Pakistani Air Forces have been seen over the Saudi desert (although it seems that bin-Salman asked CENTCOM to ask Israel to help them).

However, the real goal of the Houthi-Iranian offensive is to force the United States out of the Gulf. No matter what people are saying the blockade and other economic measures are having a strong effect on Iran and its regime. This does not mean it is close to falling, but they obviously feel a need to change the conversation and to use outside pressure to bring some relief to the country and eventually to remove the American “menace”.

An article in The Free Press (whose headline is more optimistic than the article itself) correctly states that the Houthis are trying to lessen their dependence on Iran, but that does not mean that most of the orders are not still coming from Iran. It is not the Houthi’s themselves that are a threat but the Houthis as an Iranian proxy that is the danger. A Houthi semi-state in western Yemen is a thorn in the side of the world, but it is very different than an Iranian controlled western Yemen. Currently, there is no reason to believe that Iran is not controlling events in Yemen just like they controlled events in Lebanon. Israel’s “ceasefire offensive” against Hezbollah, taking their major command centers and all but pushing them out of their strongholds in southern Lebanese Shiite villages has shaken the Iranian leadership and weakened their hold on events in the Middle East. They only have Yemen, the Persian Gulf itself (the Straits of Hormuz) and some Iraqi militias left to take the pressure off them.

Alternatively, if the Houthis attack fails, could this be Iran’s last stand? A defeat at the hands of the Saudis, coming right after the Hezbollah defeat at the hands of Israel will leave Iran with only one pressure point – one that the U.S Navy has blocked. While they are causing some discomfort in the West via rising oil prices, they are causing more discomfort in their ally China and even more in their own country.

Last week we indicated that there are four things that need to happen in order to put in place the possibility, let’s upgrade that to the probability of regime change. The Islamic Republic understands this better than the Western press. The first is nearly complete and that is the destruction of Hezbollah. The second is the American blockade and economic D-day which are in full force but need time to work. The third is the defeat of the Houthis and the last one is an intensive U.S (or U.S and Israeli) bombing campaign combined, possibly, with the taking of Persian Gulf islands.

If the Saudi’s lose, this will endanger the entire U.S plan and may even bring down the bin-Salman rule in Saudi Arabia as he can be replaced by more conservative Princes if his plans fail and he embarrasses the Kingdom in front of the Moslem world. This is a best-case scenario for the suffocating Islamic Republic and could lead to their resurgence in the region.

Iran knows this well and the Houthi-Saudi war will either lead to the downfall of the Islamic Republic or a very humbled and maybe changed Saudi kingdom. A fight to a standstill with the Houthis remaining an Iranian proxy means that the other three legs of the plan – the destruction of Hezbollah, economic D-day and U.S bombing effort will need to be pursued quickly and violently. As Israel has painfully learned, fighting to a standstill just gives your terrorist enemies time to regroup. Without a Houthi defeat we will be where we are today and the U.S goal of ridding the region of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be much more difficult. Much more is at stake in the Houthi-Saudi war than people believe.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

Follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Conflicted Trading: Singapore Dollar and Federal Reserve Considerations

September 11, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Commodities Economy Equities Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Financial Institutions Forex India Risk Management Robert Petrucci Speculators Uncategorized World

USD/SGD: Conflicting Desires From the Federal Reserve and Financial Institutions

The world of Forex is about to grow murkier in the coming days as shadows loom over financial institutions regarding their near-term decisions as they try to gain clarity regarding what appears to be confused and concerning mid-term outlooks for speculators and investors.

The USD/SGD is traversing near the 1.26776 vicinity as of this writing. The currency pair is trading within a long-term historical lower realm in which the 1.26000 level was challenged from mid-January until the first week of this year. This past Wednesday the USD/SGD traded near the 1.26280 mark. Previous to the current ratios and lows seen in early 2026, the Singapore Dollar traded around the 1.24475 level in June of 2014. The USD/SGD challenged 1.20000 level in early August of 2011 – yes, 25 years ago.

USD/SGD One Year Chart as of 11th September 2026

Here Come The Risk Events: Inflation, BRICS, Iranian War and the U.S Fed

Now that we have alerted technical traders about the long-term depths of the USD/SGD being flirted upon once again, it needs to be pointed out that a parade of risk events are standing in front of global Forex today and next week. First up today is the U.S Consumer Price Index inflation data. This weekend the 18^th BRICS Summit will be conducted in New Delhi, India as geopolitics and trade talks will get plenty of attention. Next Wednesday the U.S Federal Reserve will issue its FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate decision – which may produce a climax for theatrical trading in the coming week.

While it feels almost needless to say, the Iranian War has not relented. The price of WTI Crude Oil is around $100.65 per the cash market. The sustained highs achieved in the past couple of days do not show many signs of suddenly relenting. WTI Crude Oil was around $86.50 around the 1^st of September, the USD/SGD was near 1.27200. To create a bit more alarm regarding the risk horizon going into this weekend the U.S 10-Y Treasury yields lurk around 4.945%, the 30-Y Bond yields are close to 5.355% – none of this sits well with the U.S White House, nor Treasury. In the midst of this investment noise, the price of Gold is close to $4,345.00, which still looks cheap considering current circumstances.

Crude Oil supplies remain anxious globally and inflation is certainly causing angst for citizens and a variety of government policies. Singapore will report August inflation data on the 23^rd of September, July’s inflation data came in around 2%, with energy costs being the culprit for higher prices in many cases. The USD/SGD was near 1.29500 around the 14^th of July. Prices for energy have not gone lower and the likelihood of them turning cheaper soon remains unlikely.

USD/SGD Correlations and Current Sentiment

USD centric action since the first week of July has showed weakness against many major currencies including the Singapore Dollar. Let’s put the USD/JPY to the side because of the intervention via the Bank of Japan and input of the U.S Treasury and Federal Reserve collectively. The USD/SGD is correlating to the broad market. Risk averse decisions have been prevalent in stock markets. The U.S major indices while remaining near higher altitudes are showing cautious behavioral sentiment.

The USD/SGD certainly went lower in January and early February of this year, but this occurred as doses of optimism were filling the air and in the absence of the Iranian war. Yet, the downturn in the USD/SGD has been formidable since highs around 1.29900 were seen on the 24^th of June. In late November of 2025 the currency pair flirted with the 1.31000 level.

Federal Reserve and Treasury Battle with Reality

The U.S Treasury and Federal Reserve will not tell the U.S public that the USD loss of value is an invisible tax. Nor does President Trump want Crude Oil prices to remain high because Americans are certain to get angry about more expensive gasoline prices, particularly if they remain elevated after being promised costs will come down. Reality may prove painful for all parties in the coming months.

Which leaves us with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this coming Wednesday and how it decides to decode the current anxious inflation concerns. Will the Fed try to explain that they still believe – due to the U.S intended Iranian war policy and its belief they will win in the coming months – that the Federal Funds Rate remains situated properly at around 3.50-3.75%? Delivering the important question regarding what exactly has been traded into the USD/SGD. Have financial institutions traded an interest rate increase into the currency pair already?

It certainly feels like long-term investors who believe the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to fight against stubborn inflation have refused to buy Treasuries cheaply and thus forced yields upwards the past months. So what does the Federal Reserve do as an ‘independent’ institution knowing that U.S White House and Treasury desires may not match policy coordination? It is the 40+ trillion USD debt question.

Will Fed Chair Kevin Warsh actually dare to raise the current borrowing rates and say that it is quite possible the rate can be lowered again in the mid-term? Or does he admit that as feared by many financial institutions that two to three interest rate hikes will be needed per old school economic thoughts, which may actually make the current circumstances of average Americans much worse with higher borrowing costs created across the board as a side effect?

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has not exactly proven efficient while addressing journalists and Fed watchers quite yet. His speech this coming Wednesday on the 16^th will be crucial for the broad markets. The USD/SGD is trading within its lower realm, but durable support technically does lurk. Jittery Forex trading awaits for all.

Will the Federal Reserve be bold enough to actually NOT increase the current Federal Funds Rate and talk about the risks to the U.S economy because of potential recession concerns; this as the mid-term elections lurk in November and President Trump watches and doesn’t want talk about a slowdown in the U.S economy heard from what he considers his administration. However, the Fed is independent and can do as it wants in theory.

At this point the Federal Reserve and Treasury should make sure the drama is coordinated because many eyes will be focused on the coming show. And the end result over the near-term will be volatile Forex and a USD/SGD that reacts with price velocity depending on the immediate reactions from financial institutions as they judge the path ahead which will likely remain unclear.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums

September 8, 2026

by Staff with No Comment AMT Top Ten Artificial Intelligence Assets Behavioral Sentiment Business Central Banks Commodities Economic Calendar Economy Equities Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Financial Institutions Football Forex Investing Risk Management Speculators Uncategorized World

Higher Hopes and False Victories Welcome Nervous Investors Back After the Holiday

10. We Thought You Won – Part One: Apologies to Western Michigan University who had a victory stolen from them on Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Big Ten should not only be embarrassed, but they should be investigated. Big time college football suffered a black eye this past weekend. Folks wondering why WMU is not making a bigger stink regarding the added time and decision to repeat the last play of the game which ultimately cost WMU the contest against the Wolverines, should understand they will not. Because WMU needs to play against the University of Michigan to receive big pay days, which often are hard to find. WMU received 1.5 million USD for the game on Saturday and are scheduled to play against Big Blue again on the 1st of September, 2029.

9. Not Dead Yet: Bitcoin is trading near $78,800. After flirting with lows around the $58,100 vicinity in late June, BTC/USD has created momentum upwards. However, the elevator still can go down. Strategy via MSTR is near $142.00 per share. Michael Saylor survives and influencers are boisterous and breathing a bit easier – for now.

AMT Top 10 Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums, 8th of Sept. 2026

8. Bad Brains: Tucker Carlson forayed into another absurd path when his recent guest, Jess Elofson, declared that Algebra is not needed and those who use it are ‘good little goy-slaves’. Carlson averages almost 57 million views to his podcast and social media outlets on a weekly basis.

7. NVDA: Nvidia is priced near $230.00 and the Nasdaq 100 finished Friday’s trading around 29,544. The Nasdaq 100 traded above 30,700 on the 3rd of June. Nvidia’s high touched the $236.00 level in the middle of May. Summer saw choppy reversals in the Nasdaq and S&P and values while elevated have run into cautious headwinds. Now that Labor Day is complete and summer ambivalence will be dusted off, where will the stock markets go? Iran lingers, inflation via higher energy costs looks problematic, mid-term election worries, AI infrastructure expenditures are concerning and bond yields all weigh on investment mindsets. Additional risk events are coming quickly down the road, Consumer Price Index data will be released this Friday and the Fed’s FOMC interest rate decision is next Wednesday on the 16th.

6. Reversal City: The USD/JPY is traversing below the 154.000 mark currently. The Bank of Japan and the U.S Treasury/Fed interaction regarding intervention and rhetoric about protecting the Yen’s value has apparently scared off buyers of the currency pair for the moment. Will bullish speculators now stay away from the USD/JPY for good? Doubtful.

5. Rhetoric Alone: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has found it difficult to convince the investment community that his lack of interest rate guidance is a good idea. Instead, the lack of clarity delivered from the Fed has led to higher Treasury yields. While Scott Bessent tried to fight the higher yields a couple of weeks ago, Treasuries are still smoldering and threaten to become a more dangerous fire. Investors and traders want more tangible proof that interest rate and monetary policies are structurally solid.

4. September 11th: This Friday will mark the 25th anniversary of terrorists attacks on the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and plane crash near Shanksville, Pennsylvania.

3. Upwards: WTI Crude Oil price have shown plenty of nervous behavioral sentiment higher this past week. WTI Crude Oil is now over $94.00 in the cash market. Reports indicate that shipping via the Hormuz Strait has decreased again, this as military escalation appears ready to potentially increase as a reportedly desperate IRGC led Iran and frustrated U.S White House collide.

2. Post-Summer Guillotine: Danger lurks over the global marketplace, this as risk analysts, traders and investors appear to be converging into the same cautious direction. Forex, stock markets, bond yields, and key commodities are flashing bright yellow waring slow signals. Contrarian investors and speculators may be enjoying the current financial landscape. Value plays and volatile trading opportunities may feel appealing, but risk management is going to prove useful.

1. We Thought You Won – Part Two: After saying over the past handful of months that Iran had lost the war and just hadn’t surrendered yet, via Truth Social yesterday President Trump wrote that “when we WIN the war with Iran” that gasoline prices in the U.S would plummet. While observers are used to President Trump’s seemingly infinite capability to utter contradictory statements, yesterday’s appraisal of the current situation in the Middle East may be realistic, but it can also be observed as disquieting. There appears to be more trouble down the road.

India Insider: An Unfinished Economic Transformation

September 4, 2026

by Ben Ezra with No Comment Assets Ben Ezra Central Banks Commodities Exclusive Content Featured Highlights India Investing Uncategorized World

Improving India's Education Strategy to Help Prosperity

Indian government officials, policy makers and journalists have all applauded the GDP April-June quarter data that came in 7.8%, compared to last year’s 6.9% growth. Although, the growth metrics are essential for understanding the results achieved in the broad economy, improved metrics should be applied towards the quality and conditions of life for citizens throughout India while comparing prosperity inequality.

Reading economic statistics without political or sociological factors becomes irrelevant. International trade agreements are often examined between capital and trade statistics, but in reality they are dominated by corporate lobbying and geopolitical powers behind the scenes calling into question results and assumptions.

Economists frequently discuss marginal propensity and disposable income elasticity, but in reality labour laws, union suppression and offshore workforce capabilities determine the wages paid to local employees. India like other Western countries, judges economic growth via headline statistics, without explaining the qualitative factors that determine a nation’s prosperity.

Share of Informal Employment Comparison 2005 – 2025

Human development concerns via good housing, better roads, access to quality education for every child, and secure hospitalization in government run facilities are not covered in GDP data. India calculates GDP data with a production and expenditure approach. Meaning the production of goods and services in a given time must match the underlying expenditures of the overall economy. Since the Indian statistical office calculates expenditures from with a limited number of household surveys and proxies, it’s not prudent to conclude that all GDP data is correct.

Some analysts prefer to look at Gross Value Added, GVA, to determine the overall value created by the nation’s producers. However, this data observes the organized sector via corporate filings, GST (Good and Services Tax) data, industrial production indices, but leaves the contribution of India’s vast unorganized employment sector in the dark.

Informality in the Job Sector

Over the last few years, non-farm jobs which are crucial for diversifying the economy and providing stability are not growing as needed. The formal job sector which offers security, benefits and fair wages is also stagnant. This lack of job creation is pushing more people into unpaid or informal work (the latter constitutes around 90% of the work force) where people struggle to make ends meet.

Kallakurichi District in Tamil Nadu State

The National Statistical Office ( NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), performs periodic labour force studies, including household consumption and annual questionnaires of the unorganized sector, but they are sample based surveys and taken only as a proxy due to a lack of available data.

However, these sample based household surveys allow observations of the unorganized sector via snap shots. The agricultural sector traditionally seen as a last resort for employment in rural areas, witnessed a resurgence after the Covid-19 pandemic. Unbelievably, about 80 million people rejoined this sector (including women in rural areas who had exited agriculture jobs after 2004, as a periodic labour force quarterly survey shows) between mid 2020 and mid 2024. This increase in employment continued into 2025, not because of farm growth and modernization, but due to stagnation in the industrial and services sectors.

India’s major challenge in the coming decade is to create enough adequate non-farm jobs in order to accommodate new entrants and for those who are want to leave agricultural employment. Meanwhile, India has one of the lowest rates of work participation of women in the world. Yet, some studies argue that there is a close link between the female labour force participation rate and manufacturing employment. To help GDP growth rates move qualitatively upwards, India must absorb more women from farm work and into manufacturing.

Population size matters and because of India’s large numbers if rising labour productivity is accomplished the nation will not only continue to become one of the largest economies, but will have the the capacity to influence the world’s GDP growth rate positively. The impact of one policy (for instance to promote economic growth) on another (i.e: income poverty reduction) crucially depends on the level of a third variable like the improvement of human capital via better skills, knowledge and health. In other words, growth will be more successful in reducing income poverty if economic value is well developed and more equitably distributed for individuals.

Increasing the capabilities for those who want to be employed and form the base of a country would facilitate the creation of improved formal jobs, labour productivity and real wages. However, the reality is complex. During the Covid-19 pandemic and in its aftermath workers who had earlier left agriculture for better earnings in the first half of the noughties shifted back to agriculture instead of moving to more productive or formal jobs in non-farm activities. In other words, India has seen an odd reversal of structured change that normally characterizes economic development.

Education for the Entire Population

The only upward mobility for Indians predominately is to educate their children, so that they can get comfortable jobs and lift their families out of poverty. For decades especially after the post independence period, India’s higher education remained an elusive dream for millions of historically marginalized people from Schedule Tribes, Schedule Castes and many struggling communities.

Unfortunately, the gates of universities and colleges were mainly opened to only privileged students belonging to the upper caste elites. Young ST or Dalit students in remote villages faced layers of disadvantages regarding poor schooling – including financial strains, social stigmas, etc. This is in contrast to students from the privileged social groups who often inherited aspirations and the access to higher quality education that comes with an expensive price tag.

While the door for higher education opportunities has been opened for all, it was much wider for those privileged groups, and it remained relatively narrower for the marginalized communities. As the data suggests, In 2023-2024, only about 6.8% of STs and 8.6% of SCs aged 24 and above had attained education up to the graduation level and above, while 12.5% from the OBCs and a striking 23% “others category attained the same”. This hierarchy pattern suggests that STs are the most disadvantaged, followed by SCs, and then OBCs with others at the top, suggesting structural barriers based on caste and historical exclusion.

Aspirations and Sustainable Quality Growth

With a large segment of population stuck in informal or low skilled work, their purchasing power remains soft, weakening aggregate demand. India doesn’t value GDP using an income based approach, because of the same informality. Therefore the failure to ensure equitable access to higher education does not simply reflect social injustice, it also directly weakens India’s growth aspirations, inclusiveness and sustainability.

Inequality in classrooms today becomes inequality in income tomorrow and eventually a drag on the nation’s economic growth. Instead of rejoicing over the quarter to quarter GDP growth comparing to last year, India must sincerely look into real problems that need to be solved and use its demographic dividend to create better results for all. A sociological and political lens is important to devise policies and strategies for next decade’s growth.

India Insider: Rupee’s Prolonged Weakness Remains Unresolved

August 28, 2026

by Ben Ezra with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Ben Ezra Central Banks Commodities Economy Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Financial Institutions Forex India Investing Speculators Uncategorized World

Better Streamlined Government Policy Needed for the Rupee

In July of this year Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra talked to Business Line magazine and argued that recent Rupee depreciation does not reflect any weakness in the country’s economic fundamentals. According to him, pressure on the currency has largely stemmed from geopolitical tensions, USD strength and broader volatility across emerging markets.

However, the USD which strengthened during the outset of the US-Iran war has been losing value in large chunks in the broad Forex market the past month. The U.S Federal Reserve remains neutral regarding its interest rate guidance and U.S labor market data has emerged weaker. On top of that, the U.S Treasury’s decision to intervene in U.S long-term bonds via buybacks in order to cool yields has hastened another USD path lower, while igniting buying in many other currencies and gold.

USD/INR Five Year Chart as of 26 August 2026

Despite the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits coming from overseas investors increasing, which are leveraged products structured by banks and helped to attract more than $50 Billion USD since June, the Rupee’s reaction to this set of recent inflows has been muted. The Indian Rupee is traversing near 95.55 levels as of this writing, notably as other Asian currencies like Korean Won and Singapore Dollar are trading at stronger levels.

India’s Forex reserves climbed to $716.9 billion boosted by these inflows, along with USD related external borrowings by corporate and commercial banks. Nevertheless, the fundamental problems for the Rupee’s prolonged weakness remains unresolved.

Reasons for Rupee’s Weakness Structurally

The Indian Rupee has depreciated around 28% against USD since 2022. Irrespective of this, the merchandise tradable exports have been stagnant, rising a mere 5.7% – from $417 billion to $441.8 billion USD. While on the other hand, merchandise imports have risen 26% from $610 billion to $774.80 billion USD in the period between 2021-2025.

However, India’s balance of payments is not at immediate risk, because even as higher importing needs (especially with Crude Oil and LNG) and lower tradable exports, the total merchandise deficit of around $350 billion USD as of 2025 is being offset by healthy IT exports and foreign remittances.

The fundamental question is why hasn’t the Indian Rupee depreciation expanded merchandise exports in the last few years? As Carlos Dias Alejandro depicts in his seminal work Exchange-rates Devaluations in a Semi-industrialized Country: The Experience of Argentina 1955-1961, throughout Argentina’s history rural producers who supplied most of the exported commodities traditionally advocated a policy of devaluation.

Argentine exporters expected Peso prices for their outputs to rise faster than the Peso prices for their imports, including the wages that they paid for their employees in current prices. In other words, exporters stand to gain from a currency devaluation because it can make their products more competitive in global markets and encourage resources to move towards export production.

Argentina’s experience after Juan Peron who was overthrown in 1955 provides an important context to this argument. The economic policies pursued during the Peron years had already left Argentina with serious inflation , weak agricultural incentives, low investment and balance of payments pressures. The devaluation and stabilization policies that followed were therefore part of a broader attempt to correct the distortions that had built up during the previous period.

Interestingly, the Rupee depreciation has so far not shifted resources from producing goods for foreign products as it is apparently clear via merchandise trade data. The IT sector has been one of the few sectors that has been able to use this shift positively.

It is also important to understand that devaluation does not produce only positive outcomes. A devaluation that increases the overall level of prices can cause a redistribution of income among different social groups, in much the same way as inflation does in a closed economy. Unwieldy redistribution becomes inevitable when the prices of outputs and inputs do not change proportionally.

For instance, wages are central to this process. If prices of food, fuel and other essential goods rise quickly after a devaluation, but nominal wages adjust slowly, workers experience a decline in real wages and purchasing power. Their incomes may remain unchanged in Rupee terms, yet they can afford fewer goods and services. This effectively transfers income from wage earners to firms and producers whose prices or profits adjust more rapidly.

The impact can also differ across workers. Employees in organized sectors may negotiate higher wages or receive inflation linked adjustments, while informal workers, agricultural laborers and those dependent on fixed incomes often have less bargaining power and face a sharper fall in real earnings. At the same time, exporters may benefit if the prices of their products rise faster than their wage and other input costs.

However, if workers eventually demand compensation for the higher cost of living, wage increases can raise production costs and reduce part of the initial competitiveness gained through devaluation. Thus the effect of devaluation depends not only on the exchange rate, bit also on how quickly wages, prices and productivity respond.

In that sense, Argentina’s experience in the 1950s offers a warning for semi industrialized countries like India. A devaluation of the Rupee can make some exports competitive, but it cannot create more productive capacity on its own. Without addressing deeper structural problems, a weaker currency can instead push up prices and reduce households real purchasing power.

Rupee Effects Absorbed and Felt by Those Who Earn Low Wages

Prices of goods and services have increased in the last few years due to the depreciation of the Rupee, especially for imported goods. Since India not only imports oil and gas for consumption, but also imports machinery and intermediate goods for production it has forced households to spend a higher share of their income on the consumption of needed goods.

When households do not earn they need to borrow or hope that their wages increase. In India real wages don’t always go up with inflation. This is due to India having a higher supply of available labor which makes negotiating for higher wages difficult for workers. If employers can find another worker relatively easily as a replacement, the employed worker has limited power.

The ILO (International Labor Organization) notes that India remains characterized by extensive informality and low pay employment, it also estimates that 62 million workers earn below the minimum wage. India’s workers are not necessarily competing in the global market. Manufacturing as a percent of GDP has stayed around 15% over a decade. And irrespective of the fact that India is a major agricultural producer and exporting nation and over 46% of its labor force engages in the sector, total Agri-Exports stayed within a band of $48-$53 billion for the last few years.

The government says that India is growing because services as a percent of GDP is 55%, but the nation employs around one-third of the labor force in the informal economy. While IT employees earn higher wages comparatively because their wages are connected with global demand and have an advantage because they are export services, those who work in construction, domestic help, shops, agriculture and the service sector are earning substantially less. The wages of these people won’t go up until changes are made.

The vast numbers and informality of employment within a significant amount of India’s labor force prevents low wage costs from translating into solid competitiveness, particularly as inflation is seen and depreciation of the INR continues. Economies like China, Vietnam and Korea have created industrial strength by transferring household savings through lower costs for goods and subsidizing businesses.

India’s decade long reluctance to invest in necessary infrastructure, not preventing or fixing regulatory problems, a lack of commitment to invest in skill based education, and not creating conditions for businesses to compete with overseas markets have created conditions that result in low consumption and low wages. The devaluation of the INR hits households who are acting as shock absorbers in the absence of streamlined government policy.

NZD/USD: Elevated Value for Kiwi Coming Within Sight of Mid-Term Prices

August 25, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Central Banks Commodities Economy Featured Highlights Forex Risk Management Speculators Uncategorized

The NZD/USD is around 0.59550, last Friday’s highs near 0.59885 vicinity flirted with mid-term highs

The NZD/USD remains a speculative currency pair that offers fast results and velocity. The relatively low liquidity of the NZD/USD compared to the upper tier of major currency pairs allows for sudden bursts of movements which experienced traders may find tempting and inexperienced retail folks wagering could find exhausting and costly. The NZD/USD ranks typically around 7^th per the size of its volume in Forex. Ahead of it at number six is the AUD/USD.

New Zealand’s growth rate of near 1.5% has been holding steady for the past half year. On the 8th of July the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its Official Cash Rate by 0.25% and the next decision from the RBNZ is next week on the 2^nd of September. Because of inflation concerns some analysts believe another quarter of a basis point will be added. The current price of WTI Crude Oil is over $85.00, but it needs to be noted that New Zealand imports refined petroleum product most of which comes from Asia – like South Korea and Singapore. The current rate of inflation in New Zealand is around 4.1%.

NZD/USD One Year Chart as of 25 August 2026

What will the RBNZ Do Next Wednesday

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand like other global central banks has a dilemma because of the sticky higher costs of energy due to the Iran and U.S conflict. The situation in the Middle East is unlikely to be resolved in the coming month. The conservative led New Zealand government would likely prefer not having to raise the Official Cash Rate, but the central bank may feel like it has no other choice. The U.S Jackson Hole Symposium led by the Federal Reserve starts this Thursday and a key speech will be delivered by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh this Friday, New Zealand officials will be a participant.

If the Official Cash Rate is raised in New Zealand by 0.25% to 2.75% it may supply the NZD/USD some additional reasons for greater Kiwi strength. However, what should concern day traders is the suspicion that part of the interest rate hike has already been baked into the value of the currency pair. Psychological support for the NZD/USD is easy to see at the 0.59500 mark for near-term traders. Those looking for upside may want to use slight moves lower to wager on potential reversals that they believe could ignite upwards if they are conservative.

Near-Term Wagers on the NZD/USD and Risk Management

The NZD/USD is a favorite for many Forex traders because of its volatility and often its ability to produce rather intriguing trends. The currency pair has seen upwards value since last Wednesday and has shown an ability to sustain it elevated status while correlating to the broad Forex market. On Wednesday the 29^th of July the NZD/USD was near the 0.57650 ratio. The currency pair was flirting with 0.60000 rather consistently in February before the Iran and U.S conflict escalated into military action.

Day traders tempted to look for additional upside in the NZD/USD cannot be faulted. If Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh somehow sounds dovish regarding U.S interest rates this coming Friday and talks about a strong U.S economy, and the RBNZ were to raise the Official Cash Rate next Wednesday this could bolster the value of the New Zealand Dollar. Risk management for retail traders is essential because sentiment shifts within the current higher terrain of the NZD/USD could attract more bullish perspectives that also include USD centric weakness, but if a sudden headwind blows – velocity in another direction could create volatility downwards if those leaning into a stronger NZD/USD were to become concerned about their outlooks and abandon ship.

Forex: Compressed Tight Realms Signaling Nervous Reactions

August 18, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Central Banks Commodities Economic Calendar Equities Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Financial Institutions Forex Investing Risk Management Speculators Uncategorized

Sentiment Storms as Financial Institutions Remain Unsure about Outlooks

Price action in the USD/SGD has continued to demonstrate a rather significant turn downwards since the last week of June. The price of the currency pair is near 1.27800 as of this writing and is traversing near values seen the 1^st of June and towards the end of the first week of March. Importantly, the USD/SGD has also seen recent lower depths and was below 1.27000 in the second week of May.

The USD/SGD traversed deeper ratios in late January when the 1.26000 vicinity was challenged and these levels were sustained until the middle of February. On the 26^th of February the USD/SGD was near the 1.26500 mark. Now that the above numbers have been established, let’s discuss why this is potentially important for Forex traders as developing trends surface.

The past few years of trading have seen a compression of Forex deviations, in other words the FX market has grown more tame. However, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) now reports that over 9.6 trillion USD in value is traded daily. This is a stark increase compared to 2022 when Forex saw an average daily market around 7.5 trillion – meaning there has been a 28% increase over the past four years.

USD/SGD One Year Chart as of 18 August 2026

The scope of volume is presented not to cause fear, but to show Forex traders what is at stake and the size of the marketplace and its potential for sudden jolts of volatility if it is established.

Turning our attention to the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and his preference to not give concrete forward guidance is important. U.S Treasury yields are dangerously high (the 30-Y yield is near 5.31%), and the military conflict between Iran and the U.S continues to fester. Threats remain on the horizon which need observation, insights that prove correct regarding how these bits of information will influence the Fed Chair and the impact on the USD could prove significant for financial institutions.

Large players have reasons to be critical about a lack of clarity and this might spark more choppiness in Forex – even though value realms are said to be in a compressed state. This opens the door for technical traders who may have a better gauge on existing behavioral sentiment of the Forex markets compared to fundamental traders who have too many tea leaves to interpret which are moving rapidly as the cup gets shifted. Technical traders may have a good sense of where algo trading is directing its velocity per current Forex sentiment.

While some analysts make a case for an increase to the Federal Funds Rate because of inflation concerns, what happens if they are wrong? And what if large players are now discounting their initial fears regarding higher interest rates and are actually starting to position themselves for the Fed Funds Rate to remain the same or be lowered in the mid-term? Is this one of the reasons why the USD has become weaker recently?

What if the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh proves stronger than people believe and has the ability to talk lower interest rates into reality? The U.S Treasury faces a huge and expensive task trying to pay off the yields of the high flying 10-Year and 30-Year bonds. What if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has a solid relationship with Fed Chair Warsh proves influential? Read AMT’s Charles Najjar’s article on his thoughts about why the Fed should aim for a 2% Fund Rate: https://www.angrymetatraders.com/why-the-us-fed-should-lower-interest-rates-to-2/

Yes, the Middle East situation remains troubling from a mid-term economic viewpoint regarding the implications on WTI Crude Oil prices and ancillary energy costs globally. Inflation must be battled, but is raising the Federal Funds Rate going to help decrease the cost of energy or lessen its demand? Mostly likely no.

U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 18 August 2026

The gold market has started to show signs of price velocity the past couple of weeks. The precious metal is trading near $4,395.00 as of this writing. Investors with a long-term window and troubled perspectives about the health of the USD have plenty of reasons to be more comfortable holding gold compared to staying in cash.

U.S equities have been doing well via indices, but nervous shadows are hovering (maybe they always are). And this is why diversification is always important via long-term investment. Equities, bonds, gold and a small proportion for speculative purposes – this for those who want to try and increase their wealth while maintaining a status quo regarding preservation of wealth.

However, from a speculative standpoint, the Forex market is starting to show signs of alarming behavior, some may even call it a lack of correlation caused by storms forming. Yes, we know the USD/JPY is within its own environment as the BoJ and U.S Treasury/Fed play tag team trying to scare folks away from buying the currency pair. However, putting the JPY to the side for the moment, USD centric weaker positions are showing ability to sustain trends.

The USD/SGD is a prime example of this momentum. The Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium begins on the 27^th of August and ends on the 29^th and all the major central banks will be attendance. Financial institutions will be keen to hear discussions about U.S bond yields, U.S and Japan currency interventions, but importantly will also want to monitor what Kevin Warsh and his cast of FOMC officers have to say about U.S interest rates. And it has to be known given the past two months from the new Fed Chair, he may remain rather quiet regarding outlook.

And that might be good for the Forex market and spark some opportunities for traders to find an advantage. Because if nothing new or convincing comes out of the Jackson Hole meetings that financial institutions can decipher regarding their mid-term outlooks, perhaps the near-term will produce more volatility. The next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting decision will be on the 16^th of September. Do not expect interest rates to be raised.

Sentiment Matters: Speculative Narrative and the False Promise of Data

August 13, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Assets Behavioral Sentiment Central Banks Commodities Cryptocurrencies Economy Equities Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Financial Institutions Forex Investing Risk Management Robert Petrucci Speculators Uncategorized

Do Retail Traders Understand They Are Being Misled?

As day traders ponder what they should do next via their speculative wagers in the broad marketplace, now is a good time to remind small speculators stepping into the casino of global assets that a lot of the production value they are offered is part of a show. Entertainment is literally being produced to entice people to trade. A large amount of retail traders are constantly being misled. Your adrenaline high is being counted upon to keep you a participant. The thrill you get when you are trading should not be more important than the outcome of your trade.

Large money machines like the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, U.S Treasury yields, Forex, commodities and even the cryptocurrencies have plenty of descriptive words and definitions trying to interpret and predict values, trends and outlook, but quite frankly a lot of the words are nonsense created to entice and fool. Making retail traders willing participants in the circus is important because it keeps a lot of the the entertainers employed.

It should be remembered that a lot of the folks on the institutional side of financial markets do not care about day traders except as an example of what not to do. They use day traders as a touchstone to point to failures and convince you why you are out of your element, while hoping you will stick around to create volumes that are often needed in some speculative assets. Are you being taken advantage of as a small speculator?

USD/JPY Long-Term Charts as of 13 August 2026

It is Much Better to be the Bank

A lot of people in the institutional financial industry know one thing for certain, while some make money investing by themselves or produce outstanding results for funds, many do not. There is an old saying among veterans in the arena, “it is much better to be the bank”. Transactional costs from commissions, carrying charges, exchange fees and taxes make money for the institutions and government regulators.

Many folks are involved in the financial markets because it provides a solid pay check, it remains a good career path for those who want the comforts of modern society. However, being a day trader while working another job as a blue collar employee, or business owner, or while being a professional in another endeavor and dreaming about wealth creation via speculation is alluring, but it frequently does not produce steady profits like it does for the people working in financial institutions collecting a paycheck.

Confirmation Bias and Investment Outcomes

Economists for instance are relied upon to decipher inflation and decode data for devoted audiences. The believers are told why certain assets are reacting and what might happen in the future by the influencers. But this also can manifest into self-fulfilling prophesy that may not actually be connected to real economic outcomes, except that outlooks get fulfilled because of emerging behavioral sentiment.

For instance when yesterday’s U.S Core CPI was released and hit its expectation, what did markets do exactly, what were investors reacting to? The markets reacted to what the perception of mid-term outlooks will now do, based on how they think the Federal Reserve will act in September and the coming months. Reactions to anticipated results are a key factor in market dynamics. Large positions are shifted by financial institutions which have the ability to to absorb short and near-term losses of capital while they wait for their mid-term outlooks to be confirmed. Confirmation bias remains important in the marketplace as results get generated via intraday results as big players thrash violently with massive piles of cash causing technical perspectives to drive algo trading.

Inflation is Not a Joke

Btw, why did god create economists? To make weathermen look good. While that may fray the feelings of economists, the joke holds water. Because observable data and printed results often do not correlate. Just ask global consumers in various nations what they think about their government’s stated inflation data compared to what they are spending on a monthly basis and rising costs. People on the street often feel their national currencies feel like they are losing money no matter what central banks are proclaiming.

Inflation is an important measurement for consumers and investors. But real inflation is often not a desirable talking point for many governments. Often excluded data includes products like food, energy, and mandated medical and pension costs via payments to government social programs. Increasing rent or mortgages via rising interest rates inside of certain government inflation reports are frequently avoided too and would look atrocious. Central banks are supposed to fight inflation, but which inflation exactly? I am digressing I know, this may have nothing to do supposedly with everyday speculating in the marketplace, but actually it does.

Because the Forex market, gold, equity indices are reacting to sentiment generated by the second based on what outlooks will be in vogue in a few months and inflation effects. Our age of social media and fast communication makes the markets vulnerable to fear and optimism equally. Speed matters even if it sometimes causes pain for day traders via lightning quick results in the marketplace as outlooks change constantly.

Make no mistake, market forces are always in play as investors look for value. Sentiment caused by folks like central banks and their policies play consistently important and volatile roles as large players and financial institutions react to tea leaves being read. The USD/JPY is a case in point, the Japanese Yen has been dramatically weak and losing value long-term.

The intervention by the BoJ and U.S Treasury which was coordinated a couple of weeks ago didn’t fix the problem that Japan has poor monetary and fiscal policy. What it did was serve as a warning to day traders and large players (including banks) not to bet too strongly against the JPY too consistently even if their perceptions tell them otherwise, because the Japanese and U.S government can wreck havoc and create unforgiving momentum which can kill the infectious trend upwards when they desire.

The BoJ and U.S Treasury definitively put on a show for traders to watch and contemplate before they consider stepping into the casino again. Sometimes it is better to watch the entertainment instead of being an actor within the drama.

Thrill of Risks and Solid Tactical Strategy

Why do speculators insists on chasing markets without having proper guidance? Why don’t these same smaller traders just let professionals manage their assets and put some money away when they can and accept the returns? Maybe because many speculators are skeptical about the real returns and know they are being made to endure a magic show of sorts.

Day traders should only risk what they can afford to lose via a speculative allotment of cash. Fund managers for financial institutions, pension funds for example, are often mandated to put 2 to 3% of holdings into speculative assets in order to seek bolder returns. This is one of the reasons why hedge funds and speculative assets flourish in a cyclical manner. Large financial institutions allow for wagering on asset classes they know are dangerous in an extremely limited manner, but with a huge amount of money. Can you say Bitcoin? And it is widely accepted that these speculative positions can be wiped out and destroy capital. Institutions often do not mind losing on limited speculative positions, the same cannot be said for retail traders.

Smaller retail traders should not view themselves engaged in a battle against financial institutions which are filled to the rim with employees who are often unsympathetic about the outcomes produced. The world of speculative betting by retail traders is not about to change. Day traders should study momentum and behavioral sentiment.

Traders need to understand how to manage risks and emotions. While speculators can dream about making illustrious profits to impress friends and partners, if they do not take into the consideration the costs of the risks they are likely going to fall into a deep hole. Strategic tactics are necessary. Retail trading doesn’t have to be a game if it is conducted wisely.

Copy and paste the text from AMT that you want to share

Apologia: Confronting Market Opinions and Pointing Out Wrongs

August 4, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Assets Behavioral Sentiment Commodities Equities Featured Highlights Financial Institutions Forex Risk Management Speculators Uncategorized

The Markets Can and Will Harm You, Can You Survive?

The U.S Dollar Index is back to where it was trading on Friday the 13th of March. (Yes, a Friday the 13th). Literally a week and half after the Iranian war started from a trading perspective. We are almost half a year into the war and many are still acting surprised by surges which churn on a daily basis in WTI Crude Oil and a host of other assets including bonds, equities – indices, and Forex.

A large group of people are acting as if the USD selloff sparked across the Forex board on Friday was doomsday and had evil intentions. But what if the Trump administration actually wants a weaker USD? What if all they need to do is to get Wall Street to kick into gear and create higher values to change behavioral sentiment in Treasury yields? It is not so easy to fool professionals is it?

The narrative that the N.Y Fed via orders from the U.S Treasury was selling USD to strengthen the JPY became a conspiracy masterclass in over-reaction. Particularly because the BoJ had intervened twice already this year prior to Friday’s action – why is nobody pointing to that? It doesn’t mean, by the way, that the BoJ suddenly knows what they are doing, but it doesn’t mean that the financial end of the world is near. We need to get over our own fears.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh may be new on the job, he may be nervous, but he is not a schoolboy, and likely has a plan of action. I agree it sometimes is not easy to discern what Warsh wants exactly, but the USD is now weaker and maybe Scott Bessent and Donald Trump do not mind. I didn’t call Bessent and Trump the Fed Chair’s boss please note – he is independent after all. Cough, cough.

Everyone Has An Opinion, Many of Them Are Wrong

I have a good friend who constantly tells me to make sure I give an opinion, he will know who he is when I say he has proven to be the worst trader I have ever known. Hello there, Mr. Bad Trader if you are reading. Part of the reason he is so bad at trading is because he has never understood who he is as an individual participant in the marketplace.

U.S Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 4 August 2026

His ego will not let him admit to himself he is wrong. This is not an easy thing to do for anyone. When is the last time you were able to admit you were wrong about a market position and turn around on a dime and be willing to take a loss?

My friend doesn’t seem capable of understanding he is not an investor, he is a trader. While his outlooks about the market often prove correct, his timeframes constantly complicate matters. He has never had the temprament to be an investor, he is too impatient. He always used too much exposure via leverage and he remained unwilling to change his sails even when the winds clearly told him he was about to get wrecked. My friend no longer trades.

I am certain he would be willing to trade someone else’s money, but he has no funds to risk on his own. And I kid you not when I say he has attempted to prove the marketplace wrong more times then can be counted and still thinks he will eventually be proven correct.

So when was the last time you were able to change your mind about an opinion you held? When was the last time you said to yourself and aloud, “I am wrong and I misunderstood the circumstances.” And do you know why you were wrong?

We listen to analysts tell us why the marketplace is going to sink, we also pay attention when they say an asset is going to the moon. Analysts are never held accountable because they are able to say things like past results do not guarantee future results. They also get to point to risk disclaimers, have a look at ours angrymetatraders.com/risk-disclaimer, protecting their opinions about the markets put forth. So why should you pay attention to someone who has no skin in your game? Because it is important to get other viewpoints, once in a while you may actually be able to allow yourself to admit that your perspective is only one of many.

The broad markets have been unkind the last six months in many ways to retail speculators. Investors have gotten hurt, but they will likely survive or at least find a job elsewhere if they cannot improve their results in the coming months to hide their failures at their current firms. This is not a polite game you are playing as a retail trader. Your brokers’ no doubt love you and talk to you about the markets and your participation like it is a sporting event. ‘Even the great ones fail once in while,” have you heard this one?

Yesterday I stumbled upon someone’s post on LinkedIn discussing a theory and ability to only aim for a half a percent of gain everyday as if that small target somehow made it achievable – all the time. Like compound interest they subtly suggested, half a percent gained everyday would show the level of control you would have in the marketplace and allow you to make millions of dollars within a few years. Good news, isn’t it?

However, many of us know, it just isn’t that easy. While it is a great notion to remain focused and not be too ambitious while trading, buying someone else’s system for a lot of money or being charged their management fee is a little like being chewed on slowly by a vulture.

Where is the optimism? Where is the golden secret that will allow you to become a better trader? I don’t have any, except to say diligence, determination and knowing when you are wrong and need to get out of a position is vital. We all want to find the big wave and ride momentum in order to profit.

Sometimes the markets look like they offer riches for the brave, but sometimes they turn into a pile of ashes. No matter how hard influencers want to praise certain assets they cannot shine a turd into gold. Sometimes the turds are merely garbage and need to be treated like fertilizer, allowing for something else to grow its in its place. Maybe that is replacement theory. Maybe it is meaningless. But this is a game with hard rules, risk management and knowing when you are wrong are among some of the more important early lessons that should be sustained.

A lot of smaller players are angry at larger players in the marketplace, the reason for this has a lot to do with survivability. Small traders like my friend are no longer able to speculate, big players who are frequently part of larger financial institutions simply go home and wait for another day. Those are my opinions, take them or leave them. Tomorrow is a new day and may offer more clarity, for the moment I suggest being careful in the broad markets.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Interjections on the 3rd of August

August 3, 2026

by Staff with No Comment AMT Top Ten Artificial Intelligence Behavioral Sentiment Central Banks Commodities Cryptocurrencies Economy Equities Featured Highlights Financial Institutions Forex Risk Management Uncategorized World

Narrative Storms, Complaints and Observations

10. Mo’ Money: The Los Angeles Dodgers surprised nobody when they acquired Detroit Tiger’s pitcher Tarik Skubol in an effort to solidify their chances of a World Series three-peat. Don’t blame the LA Dodgers for playing by the rules, even if many don’t like the results. Expect a MLB strike in the coming year when owners try to change the salary structure in baseball.

9. Staggered: SpaceX is below $110.00 as trading gets set to begin today. Financial institutions are likely bracing for the open window that begins the 6th of August via a large amount of unblocked initial equity from pre-IPO shareholding that will soon be given freedom to sell.

AMT Top 10 Miscellaneous Interjections on the 3rd of August 2026

8. Fidel Castro: Mayor Mamdani and a gang of other U.S utopian (and sometimes bigoted) politicians continue to make headway. Authoritarian failures like Venezuela and Cuba are prime examples of the paradise offered to U.S voters who lean left for the coming mid-term elections.

7. Takeover: Citadel’s takeover of Situational Awareness – which seems to have proven it had none – this past week in the wake of multi-billion dollars of losses has put Leopold Aschenbrenner’s smirk on hold for the moment. Have no fear fans, Aschenbrenner is likely to land on his feet and extol his methods once again to those who love leveraged speculative ventures while embracing unproven hedge fund saints.

6. Fragile: The VIX Index appears asleep as it remains a hair under 16 as it measures the volatility of the S&P 500 Index’s options. 10-Year U.S Treasury yields are around 4.68% and within sight of apex highs. The Nasdaq 100 futures are higher as of this writing as the cash market and a full week of trading awaits, having finished Friday’s session at 28,274.

5. Anthony Fauci: Takes the Fifth and now hopes his pardon covers contempt.

4. Bitcoin: BTC/USD is near $62,850 in the wake of confirmed cold storage hacks via a generated random prediction onslaught using AI against Coldcard hardware. In other bad news Strategy’s MSTR value is around $93.35. And, yes, Michael Saylor has reportedly whispered he is thinking about buying more BTC soon. The ship appears to be sinking folks.

3. $80.00: WTI Crude Oil has shown price velocity lower today again, this after another flip-flop in behavioral sentiment was sparked by the announcement this weekend of a ‘rough framework’ agreed upon by Iran and the U.S. The Strait of Hormuz is seemingly quiet for the moment. At this point WTI Crude Oil price reversals are beginning to look like a well practiced dance routine. What will the next steps look like?

2. Forex Freakout: USD/JPY traders are listening to a myriad of narratives regarding the BoJ’s intervention. All experienced large players in the USD/JPY had to know an intervention was coming. While folks are pointing to the N.Y Fed and U.S Treasury selling of positions to bolster the JPY last week, they apparently need to be reminded the Treasury had the N.Y Fed start preparing the groundwork for such maneuvers earlier this year with steps including the ability to check on and counter USD/JPY Forex rates in January.

While folks are accusing the Fed/Treasury of hurting the USD, they should note the move is to counter weaker JPY which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent likely had been pressed by ‘higher ups’ to manage in order to make sure Japanese products didn’t become too cheap in the States. There had been at least two other interventions in the past handful of months from the BoJ, as of this writing the USD/JPY is near 156.600.

1. Unilateral: President Trump’s decision making has become bewildering entertainment as he practices a comedic like opera trying to convince people about his opinions which he seems to change relentlessly. President Trump should learn the Art of Sparse Talking. Will the Republicans harness the President after the mid-term elections?

Debunking Bitcoin Lies

July 30, 2026

by Charles Najjar with No Comment Assets Behavioral Sentiment Business Charles Najjar Commodities Cryptocurrencies Cryptocurrencies & Digital Assets Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Financial Institutions Investing Risk Management Speculators Uncategorized

The Paradox, Absurdity, Lies and Myths of Bitcoin

They say it’s an “asset”… but it has zero assets.

They say it’s decentralized… but the large majority of all transactions go through trading platforms.

They say it’s digital gold… but it has none of the physical attributes gold derives its value.

They say it’s immune to censorship… but countries like the US and China manage to be the largest holders without buying any Bitcoin.

They say it’s scarce… but there are 2.1 quadrillion Satoshi units that act exactly like a Bitcoin unit.

They say it’s a store of value… but it has witnessed several -50% to -80% drawdowns in its short history.

They say it derives its value from energy… but energy is a massive cost that someone has to pay!

BTC/USD Chart Since 2015 as of 30 July 2026

The Bitcoin protocol was introduced as a new monetary system: decentralized, censorship-resistant, scarce, transparent, secure, and independent of governments and financial intermediaries. It promised to eliminate the need for trusted third parties and replace institutional trust with a code.

However, more than fifteen years later, Bitcoin has failed on all those fake promises…

Today, the Bitcoin ecosystem is increasingly dependent on centralized exchanges, custodians, mining companies, stablecoin issuers, institutional investors, and financial intermediaries. The supposedly revolutionary monetary asset has become deeply intertwined with the very financial infrastructure it was designed to bypass.

And beneath everything lies an uncomfortable economic reality: the Bitcoin mining industry must continuously spend real resources (electricity, capital, land, labor, and massive equipment that becomes obsolete very quickly) to generate a virtual token that is distributed randomly… with the reward being halved by design every four years! What business model can survive such a flawed system where revenues are distributed randomly and halved every four years while costs increase constantly with adoption? It is the exact opposite of an economy of scale. The more successful your product is, the deeper your losses are! Even Fried Thiel, MARA’s CEO, ended up admitting that Bitcoin mining is a “zero sum game”! With miners doomed to fail economically, Bitcoin’s network security is destined to failure.

1. The Decentralization Paradox

The word “decentralized” is perhaps the most important word in the Bitcoin vocabulary.

In practice, it is far from being the case. Most Bitcoin transactions go through exchanges, custodians, brokers, or institutional funds (ETFs). Even miners store their mined bitcoins with custodians like Coinbase.

Today, the entire ecosystem relies on the solvency of companies like Coinbase, Binance, Tether, Strategy… all of which are in a critical financial situation. Should any of them collapse, the whole house of cards will fall down.

The irony is striking. Bitcoin was designed to eliminate the need for trusted intermediaries. Yet Bitcoin users increasingly trust intermediaries to hold their Bitcoins. Even miners do! How absurd is that?

2. The 21 Million Fake Limit

The most used argument for Bitcoin is that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins.

But the statement requires closer examination too. A bitcoin is divisible into 100 million Satoshis. Each Satoshi has exactly the same “shape,” the same function, and the same attributes as a Bitcoin! Dividing something into exact copies of itself acts like a multiplier! That means the real supply is 2.1 quadrillion units (call them Satoshis or Bitcoins, it doesn’t matter).

The immediate response from Bitcoin supporters is that this is no different from saying that one dollar consists of 100 cents… but the dollar was never designed to have an absolute monetary cap.

The question then becomes whether the 21 million cap creates meaningful economic scarcity or simply a narrative of scarcity for marketing purposes. Anyway, the scarcity of something useless doesn’t make it useful…

The “21 million limit” becomes even more absurd when we consider the enormous number of other cryptocurrencies and tokens that exist. If scarcity itself is the central source of value, why should Bitcoin’s scarcity be uniquely valuable? The crypto ecosystem has demonstrated that creating a new digital asset is technically easy. Anyone can create a token with a fixed supply. If we create another digital token with a 10 million limit, much lower than Bitcoin’s 21 million limit, would it be worth more than Bitcoin because it would be considered scarcer? How can something be considered scarce if it can be replicated indefinitely with exactly the same “unique” attributes?

3. The “Digital Gold” Absurdity

They say Bitcoin is digital gold. Yet gold has physical properties that have made it valuable for thousands of years: durability, divisibility, portability, resistance to corrosion, and usefulness in jewelry and industry. Bitcoin has none of those unique physical attributes. Take away those physical attributes from gold, and it loses all its value. Since Bitcoin is gold without its physical attributes, it is therefore worth nothing! It’s as if we created a virtual token and called it “digital water,” pretending it’s “liquid” and “essential to life.” Still, if we can’t drink it or wash with it, what value would it have? Not only does Bitcoin have no intrinsic value, but it also requires continued investment in heavy infrastructure and massive electricity consumption to stay alive. It is like having a car parked in a garage, continuously consuming gas to remain “alive,” while you pretend it has value because it is unique! Once gold is mined, it costs nothing to continue existing. When Bitcoin is mined, the network needs to keep running on heavy electricity consumption for the Bitcoin to remain “alive.”

4. The “Censorship Proof” Lie

Governments around the world have acquired Bitcoin through seizures, confiscations, enforcement actions, bankruptcies, and other means. That’s how a digital coin created as a challenge to government monetary authority ended up in government-controlled wallets.

Governments do not need to control the blockchain to influence the market. They can shut down crypto platforms and seize their assets. What happened to the promise of monetary freedom?

5. The Myth of Low-Cost Bitcoin

Bitcoin is sometimes described as a cheap way to transfer money. The comparison can be attractive. There is no need for a traditional bank to approve a transaction. The network operates continuously.

But the cost of the system is not simply the transaction fee paid by the user. There is also the cost of maintaining the infrastructure. Bitcoin mining consumes enormous amounts of electricity and requires heavy equipment that becomes rapidly obsolete. The economic cost of maintaining the network is simply unsustainable. All listed miners show constant negative cash flow with massive dilution of shareholders and collapsing stock prices. It is not a coincidence. It is simply a sign that Bitcoin mining is economically unsustainable. It is a fundamentally losing business that is doomed to fail. When most miners inevitably capitulate, they will sell their Bitcoin reserves and provoke a massive collapse in the price. With less than 5% remaining to be mined over the next 100 years, there will be zero incentive for miners to start all over again. Bitcoin is doomed to fail from within.

If Bitcoin were truly revolutionary, all large technology companies, like Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, would have jumped in to get their market share (as they did for AI)… instead we have empty shells with no business model, like Strategy, Nakamoto Inc, and Metaplanet, turning into “Bitcoin treasury” companies while incurring heavy losses and permanent negative cash flow.

Bitcoin was designed as an alternative to financial intermediaries. Now collapsing “treasury companies” and unsecured crypto platforms control the ecosystem. We shifted the risk from banks like JPMorgan, Citi, or Morgan Stanley, supported by the US central bank, to entities like Coinbase, Tether, and Binance… some of which aren’t even audited! And all without any support from a central authority.

The user may distrust banks, but he is asked to trust an exchange. The user may distrust central banks, but he is asked to trust a stablecoin issuer. The system has not eliminated trust. It has redistributed it to a much weaker ecosystem!

Bitcoin will be remembered as the greatest bubble of all time and the largest misallocation of capital and resources in human history.

Angry Meta Traders

Angry Meta Traders

Posts in category: Commodities

Fed Decision: Two Sides of a Dangerous Coin

The Fed Should Not Raise Rates But It Will

Iran’s Last Stand or a Humbled Saudi Arabia?

Either bin-Salman or the Islamic Republic will Survive

Conflicted Trading: Singapore Dollar and Federal Reserve Considerations

USD/SGD: Conflicting Desires From the Federal Reserve and Financial Institutions

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums

Higher Hopes and False Victories Welcome Nervous Investors Back After the Holiday

India Insider: An Unfinished Economic Transformation

Improving India's Education Strategy to Help Prosperity

India Insider: Rupee’s Prolonged Weakness Remains Unresolved

Better Streamlined Government Policy Needed for the Rupee

NZD/USD: Elevated Value for Kiwi Coming Within Sight of Mid-Term Prices

The NZD/USD is around 0.59550, last Friday’s highs near 0.59885 vicinity flirted with mid-term highs

Forex: Compressed Tight Realms Signaling Nervous Reactions

Sentiment Storms as Financial Institutions Remain Unsure about Outlooks

Sentiment Matters: Speculative Narrative and the False Promise of Data

Do Retail Traders Understand They Are Being Misled?

Copy and paste the text from AMT that you want to share

Apologia: Confronting Market Opinions and Pointing Out Wrongs

The Markets Can and Will Harm You, Can You Survive?

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Interjections on the 3rd of August

Narrative Storms, Complaints and Observations

Debunking Bitcoin Lies

The Paradox, Absurdity, Lies and Myths of Bitcoin

Recent Posts

Recent Comments

Archives

Categories