WTI Crude Oil 20261104

AMT Commodities Corner: Can Blue Wave Change Momentum of Black Gold?

President Trump's Reaction to Election Defeat Matters for WTI Crude Oil

A blue Democratic Party wave has hit the U.S in the past day and early this morning as votes are still being counted and clearly show a definitive victory for the Democrats. The manner in which President Trump reacts to the election defeat will influence the price of WTI Crude Oil greatly, because his handling of the Iranian situation will now be confronted by new political obstacles. The current price of WTI Crude Oil cash is near $97.00 as of this writing.

In the past few days WTI Crude has come off of fearful highs which challenged values above $106.00 last Friday on the 30th of October. In early trading this morning the price of WTI Crude Oil cash has lowered slightly, but has begun to show slight signs of consolidation again. Some speculators may be eyeing a renewed testing ground around the $96.00 ratio with some lower momentum being seen. However, before speculators rush into a wave of additional selling they should note that WTI Crude Oil remains within a cautiously priced realm as large players clearly remain worried about potential impacts if the Iranian situation worsens.

WTI Crude Oil Price and OECD Commercial Inventories via Viridian Commodity Intelligence on the 4th November 2026

And here is where things will get tricky in the near-term for retail traders as they try to weigh their perceptions and anticipate the reaction of the bigger forces in the energy market that will move values. The outcome of the U.S mid-term elections last night may cause some large players in WTI Crude Oil to feel more optimistic about a possibly quicker conclusion to the Iranian war which has been staunchly in the headlines since late February. 

However, key factors remain unanswered regarding consequences, and short-term notions must be compared to mid-term timetables. What will President Trump’s immediate reaction rhetorically be regarding ‘his’ election defeat and what he now views as viable as he presses forth against Iran? How will energy demand and inventories be influenced in the coming weeks? For instance the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) commercial inventories reporting via Viridian Commodities Intelligence shows supply remains low among member nations. Meaning that a perceived escalation to come in Iran could create more headwinds and sustain negative outlooks. Suggesting fears which still exist about the Iranian situation may be priced into WTI Crude Oil because supply for the OECD nations remains vulnerable.  

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 4th November 2026

Prices today and tomorrow should be watched carefully. A psychological test for large players in WTI Crude Oil will be factored by President Trump’s reactions to the strong Republican loss of power in the U.S House of Representatives and Senate. President Trump is still the Commander in Chief of the U.S military and his loss of Congressional backing may not stop him from escalating military conflict with Iran near-term. 

Will President Trump sound more pragmatic and put his ego to the side and offer the Democrats an olive branch? Or will the President use the time between now and the 3rd of January – when the new Congress will be sworn in constitutionally to take advantage of his lame-duck window which will start to be felt in an increasingly harsh manner. Note that the 3rd of January 2027 falls on a Sunday, so the official swearing in date for Congress may be changed by a few days depending on what agreements are made.

President Trump is on the clock and in essence the Iranian war is too. The price of WTI Crude Oil which has been a swift speculative playground since February of this year is set for more dynamic price action. Short and near-term traders who want to ride the momentum of larger players in WTI Crude Oil should expect plenty of velocity the remainder of this week. 

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US Dollar Index 20261103

Elections and Nervous Global Markets

U.S Mid-Term Elections, Anxious Investors, Risks and Potential Collisions

U.S mid-term elections will be held today. Wall Street has turned in anxious results recently and USD centric price action remains relatively strong. South Africa holds municipal elections tomorrow on the 4th of November with implications for the USD/ZAR.

The VIX index (Volatility S&P 500 Options) results have nudged upwards incrementally in recent trading. Still far below the March and early April highs, the index nevertheless has shown increased nervousness among investors. 

U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 3rd of November 2026

Prevailing sentiment regarding the U.S elections appears to indicate the Congress may become divided per its leadership. A potential Democratic party win of the House of Representatives and a slim majority held by the Republican in the U.S Senate would not be a surprising outcome. A divided Congress could set the table for a rise in angry rhetorical political stances from the U.S and a confrontational White House led by President Trump.

No matter the outcome presenting itself tomorrow, Wall Street should be watched for reactions. Global investors will continue to be also largely swayed by Middle East storylines and supply of energy and its effect on inflation. The U.S Federal Reserve remains in the thoughts of all investors regarding its interest rate policy. A general lack of clarity still persists, along with worries about over-inflated equity values shadowing companies with exposure to AI and the costs of infrastructure via analysts narrative.

In South Africa, municipal elections will be held on Wednesday. The outcome of the Johannesburg mayoral race should be watched by investors who have interest in the nation. Since the national elections held on the 29th of May 2024, which produced a government coalition led by the ANC sharing some power with the Democratic Alliance and other parties – the South African Rand has performed better – gaining strength against the USD. 

If tomorrow’s Johannesburg voting results produce an optimistic result showing that political power is still shifting towards more transparency and shared power this could inject another dose of positive force into the ZAR. However, until the municipal voting results our known sometime on Thursday, the USD/ZAR should be treated cautiously by day traders. And speculators should note South African banks will be largely shuttered on Wednesday limiting USD/ZAR volume.

Other important features for traders coming up will be the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Summary on Thursday and expected hike of 0.25 basis points to the Official Bank Rate. The GBP/USD is near 1.34100 as of this writing.

On Friday the U.S will release its Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, but this data may not have a gigantic effect on sentiment taking into consideration that today’s Congressional Elections will amplify existing sentiment the remainder of this week depending on the outcomes.

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