Nvidia 20260630

Nvidia Suffering From the AI Cold Bothering Investors and Speculators

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEconomyEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsInvestingRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorized

AI: Exuberance and Threats of Fatigue

Has Nvidia now been oversold? While the Nasdaq 100 produces a casino like experience for day traders and large players, the velocity of value changes in the index should serve as a simple reminder that before stepping into traffic a speculator needs to acknowledge the road. A large collision is taking place before our eyes and it will generate more noise over the coming months. 

Nvidia is a solid indicator of behavioral sentiment being influenced by a mix of optimism and fears by speculators and investors competing, and trying to define terrain as turmoil swirls and a battle for profits rage. Day traders need to remember a lot of hyperbole is amplified to get eyeballs on opinions, hoping that your attention is grabbed. (Please buy me a cup of coffee has become a begging mantra).

Nvidia 20260630

Nvidia One Year Chart as of 30th June 2026

Nvidia finished yesterday’s trading near $195.00, this after touching highs in May around the $238.00 vicinity. The fact that NVDA has lost a large chunk of its value indicates sentiment is not entirely rational. There is a vast difference between speculative hopes compared to long-term investing. 

Results in the stock markets do show symptoms of overbought conditions prevail, but over indulgent fears are taking hold as folks try to interpret every move in a haphazard manner and make correlations which often have no evidence. Nvidia is a solid company which will continue to produce product lines that will be needed long-term. Talk of Nvidia suffering from an AI cold is relevant because it has certainly lost value, but the patient is going to survive.

Others however may not. AI companies and their proclamations about being able to deliver substantial change for users has become tiresome. Supply of software is widespread. While there is demand for use, competitors are abundant and growing daily. Users can now question just how reliable and strong the products they are using are, and if promises meet the results wanted. Costs users are paying for services will also become more critical. If products don’t meet needs, other AI systems can be easily installed nowadays. 

Oversupply is Saturating the Marketplace

Because AI tools are widespread it means users will demand services get cheaper. At some point it is clear that consumers will gravitate to competitive pricing, because at the end of the day there is only a certain amount of time to verify all the products in the marketplace and understand what works best. Branding as always is important, but so is quality. Loyalty in the AI world is only a couple of years old and cannot be counted on, some early companies are already seen as legacies and allegiances will shift. 

Competitors and new ideas continue to be brought forth quickly. A lot of product is being rushed to the market that lacks proper Q&A and actually does not deliver what is promised. Proof of concept is fluid with Artificial Intelligence, along with many claims of superiority. A company can get a product into consumers hands first, but at some point value has to be delivered too.

Investors are growing wary from too many claims. Yes, a revolution has taken place, but a counter-revolution is certainly coming. A lot of AI products are simply poor. Day traders have seen chaotic results on the Nasdaq 100 over the past year. 

President Trump, tariffs, the war in Iran, Federal Reserve and interest rate uncertainty, fear of inflation (all headlines from only the past few weeks) and other complexities can be blamed for volatility as folks wager on values on the Nasdaq 100. However, the prime mover of the index has not only been investing by long-term players, it has come from speculation chasing momentum via the Artificial Intelligence boom. However, a genuine concern that a fear of missing out is turning into fatigue exists.

AI because of its abundance is going to eliminate competing systems which are seen as cumbersome and expensive. Chinese companies appear ready to confront American enterprises with cheaper products that consumers may not mind paying less for even if this means consumers are sharing intellectual property and data with unknown entities. 

Sakana AI from Japan has announced and shown the past couple of weeks that it has software, Sakana Fugu, that is comparable in a favorable manner to Anthropic and Claude services. Sakana testers claim their system is robust and offers a multi-integrated modeling system, meaning a user doesn’t have to toggle in and out of models to deliver efficient information. The data via Sakana’s system is brought together via coordinated agent forces for the user. What will this do to valuation of Anthropic moving forward?

There is also a South Korean company called Furiosa, which is not public yet, that stands in the shadows and makes outstanding AI infrastructure. Furiosa appears ready to become an important player in chips and software innovation. Nvidia is certainly keeping their eyes on Furiosa. Meta offered Furiosa 800 million USD and was rejected in March 2025. 

Investors and speculators should not discount the potential of an AI tech dump from global competitors into the U.S and elsewhere developing over the next year. Mobile phones became a rather boring commodity after their initial entry astonished first time users two decades ago, AI will undergo the same pathway.

Some AI companies will certainly struggle over the next few years, but other enterprises will succeed merrily and profit. There is a big difference between investing and speculating. Even mid-term forays into the stock markets remain only gambles if a person plans on cashing out profits when they have hit a price target, instead of long-term ambitions to own shares in a quality company. 

Nasdaq100 bubble talk which has recently reignited in a loud manner should be given attention but astutely. It is hard to argue that the value of the indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are not in over-inflated territory. Looking at historical p/e ratios seems to have gone out of fashion. Warren Buffet cannot be thrilled and his fundamental strategies should not be ignored. Speculative hype needs to be confronted by investment reality. Folks will continue talking themselves into stances that are comfortable, even if they make little sense. The markets will certainly survive and so will AI.

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US Dollar Index 20260627

The USD and The Art of Not Knowing

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Being Mature Enough to Know You Don't Know as You Watch the Marketplace

Ask anyone that typically knows how they gauge the state of the global marketplace for the near-term and you are likely to either get a solid, “I have no idea” now. Or a bunch of thoughts on what might happen, which might lead to being more confused. Simply put at this point, it is easier to admit that potential conclusions regarding the world’s current affairs taking place and effecting the global marketplace are out of most peoples’ hands. 

Even those who have duties within the higher paid grades likely are just as confused about the potential unintended consequences not wanted, and results they hope will be achieved. And what am I speaking about exactly, regarding the world and its state of affairs, is that even qualifying the particular topics are difficult to put a finger on. Ramblings certainly include the Iran saga, but Cuba, the Ukraine, the NATO pact, shifting world alliances and future ones are creating a whirlwind. Besides the rather noisy political landscape of the USA. Not to mention China and Russia and other nations with aspirations.

Yet, the global markets continue to trade, albeit within a confused haze it sometimes appears. But do not be despondent day traders, brokers and their platforms will offer you the opportunity to wager on results of the USD in Forex, and CFDs certainly contain opportunities in major equity indices the world over, various big singular companies, commodities and yes cryptocurrencies (apologies to Bitcoin fans – who insist it is called a digital currency).

US Dollar Index 20260627

U.S Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 27th May 2026

Iran War and Unclear Results

The U.S Dollar Index for the moment is near the 98.880 ratio, which it should be pointed out is near the values it swam upon the April 8th announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the States, this after dropping from its 99.800 threshold on the 7th when investors were more troubled. The ceasefire is still in effect and now there seems to be a resolution which is being hoped for by the U.S White House – although when pressed about what negotiations between Iran and the U.S will result in delivers a few different versions of ideas. 

Perhaps that is to be expected via the fog of war, but what should not be expected is an easy path to a genuine resolution. And even if there is a pact of some type, what objectives will have been genuinely fulfilled? But alas, that is a question for those in the future, because the facts on the ground do not bode well for ordinary Iranians who have yearned for freedom. 

The Fed Has a Problem

But again, let’s not dwell on things like the individual rights of people, money is at stake…..(that is humor folks, others can call it sarcasm). The price of WTI Crude Oil has dropped this week on the idea that a resolution will actually be accomplished between Iran and the U.S – one at least that allows tankers to navigate the Hormuz Strait. 

The price of WTI via futures at this moment are around the $90.00 mark again, this after moving within sight of 88.00 USD earlier today. At the end of last week the $96.00 mark was in sight for WTI. And the price of energy continues to cast a shadow that is moving over the U.S Federal Reserve and has large implications for the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. 

The mid-term versus the long-term in financial institutions as they judge their interest rate perspectives are likely making for rather entertaining dialogue. And let’s not forget ladies and gentlemen, the U.S mid-term elections are approaching in November of this year and are resulting in primary elections that are punishing Republicans who voiced criticism towards President Trump. The question about who will hold power in the U.S House of Representatives is a big riddle. Even the U.S Senate leadership may be fragile. Why is that important, because if President Trump were to become what is known as a lame-duck President during his last two years in office, this would produce different outlooks among investors. Stay focused on the money people. 

Our Forex Friend: The BoJ

The USD/JPY is now traversing its 159.490 vicinity again, and perhaps that is a bell weather for soothsayers to criticize again. The Bank of Japan is watching the Japanese Yen as its trades within sight of its weakest values, and yes, the BoJ can be expected to issue another warning to speculators once again about being run over by an intervention. The BoJ’s broken record about interventions have produced solid results for folks who are able to trade the USD/JPY with positions that can be held for a few weeks at a time – namely hedge funds, large players and some financial institutions. Retail traders trying to take advantage of the USD/JPY are likely suffering trauma via anxiety if their wagers have gone in the wrong direction.

SpaceX and Scams in the Cryptoworld

And as a bonus, let’s not forget about rumblings regarding SpaceX and another topic within the I do not know category. Elon Musk has set the table for an attempt at a 2 trillion USD market cap after the IPO for the corporation is launched in the second week of June. The value of SpaceX can be and will be argued for the next few years as admirers and critics lineup to be heard and spread sheets are compared regarding revenues against one of the greatest marketing giants of our time. Intriguingly, however, are hints that there has been a lot of cryptocurrency fiddling regarding how the corporation is going to allow investors to participate. Apparently there have been tokens issued in the cryptocurrency world that have promised some type of participation in SpaceX and most are being exposed as scams and have nothing to do with the company or Musk. Buyer beware folks.

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USDJPY 20260505

Our Friend the Japanese Yen and Forex Opportunities

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksFeatured HighlightsForexRisk ManagementSpeculatorsWorld

Bank of Japan's 'Do As We Say' A USD/JPY FX Advantage Technically

Forex traders who have been keen on trying to venture wagers on the USD/JPY certainly cannot be faulted. As of this writing the USD/JPY is near the 157.720 vicinity, this after falling to lows around the 155.750 mark and below momentarily last Thursday, Friday and briefly yesterday. 

The Bank of Japan let it be known in the middle of last week that speculators should not be buying the USD/JPY because they – the BoJ – could and would intervene with strong selling to kill off the momentum higher. The ‘do as we say’ approach from the BoJ is a contrarian trader’s dream, but one that needs as always a strong dose of risk analysis.

USDJPY 20260505

USD/JPY Five Year Chart on the 5th of May 2026

And this is where it gets properly intriguing for USD/JPY traders, because the Bank of Japan is literally setting the table for two different types of Forex trades when they threaten or actually intercede with interventions. One is a selling notion per the warnings, the second is a buying excursion for the emotionally stable after they think the intervention has run out of power.

A five year chart shows the immense pressure the Japanese Yen has been under as it has lost value against the USD. However, it is all about perspective depending on how a trader wants to chase momentum shifts. 

Technical traders can easily see that when higher vicinities are approached the USD/JPY is sometimes met with spikes downward. And then technically it is rather evident that support levels tend to spur on buying. The problem for buyers seeking support levels after Bank of Japan selling is to know when it is safe to become a buyer again.

If a trader has courage and wants to bet against the large players and financial institutions leaning into long positions of the USD/JPY, a selling position at higher marks is a solid choice. Yet, the other question then arises – where is resistance going to actually translate into a warning sounded by the BoJ in order to create the desired landslides lower in the USD/JPY?

Bank of Japan policy regarding interest rates has only been in question for over 3 decades now from outside observers who like to be critical. Yet, the conservative (and questionable) policies of the Japanese government via fiscal and monetary policy is a looking glass into practicalities for Forex traders. 

10-Year Japanese bond yields are now at twenty-nine year highs. The rate as of this writing is above the 2.50% level. The Bank of Japan Policy Rate remains low at 0.75%. While many analysts believe borrowing costs from the BoJ should be higher, what some might be missing is that the Japanese people are already being penalized via a weaker Japanese Yen. Higher borrowing costs and a weak Yen would likely not go over well with many Japanese citizens.

The Bank of Japan is in a difficult place regarding outlook as it tries to help keep exports strong, while also having to consider the higher costs of energy which is certain to hit Japanese industries over the mid-term. These considerations may cause some financial institutions to continue leaning into a buying outlook regarding the JPY, but near-term considerations must also be weighed as nervous sentiment cascades throughout the broad Forex market shifting abruptly. 

USD centric price action has been choppy, but overall the USD has also been weaker against many major currencies and even emerging market currencies. Yet, the USD/JPY remains within its higher realm. All of the Bank of Japan warnings to speculators telling them not to pursue buying the USD/JPY continues to make the BoJ sound weak and this doesn’t help sentiment surrounding the JPY. While the Bank of Japan can certainly intervene with massive amounts of buying the Japanese Yen – selling the USD/JPY – the central bank also is probably quite keen on making sure the JPY doesn’t get too strong. 

And this is where confusion must be put to the side, economics are wonderful when studied in a textbook, but the reality of trading the USD/JPY lives in the real world. Fiscal and monetary policies do not always work out the way governments intend.

The BoJ probably has a polite trading range they would like to see for the USD/JPY between 154.000 to 158.000 currently, but getting financial institutions to help achieve this realm remains difficult. The range between 156.000 to 159.000 likely remains a practical area for the BoJ as of now, one in which they believe their policies can work properly. 

Opportunities need to be viewed with a proper lens by day traders. Participating in the USD/JPY is a dangerous place because the currency pair has massive volume and the BoJ and U.S Federal Reserve often work together to gear valuations – even if they frequently disagree on techniques. Price velocity in the USD/JPY will continue to prove dynamic in the near-term and speculators need to practice patience and keep their risk taking tactics strict.

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US Cash Index 20260424

Upcoming Weekend Nervousness: Does Anyone Know What is Going On?

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorized

Preaching Caution and Looking Like a Fool to Those Who Want to Profit

Can someone please tell the rest of us what is going on? Global markets via Forex this morning are demonstrating additional USD centric strength which developed yesterday. The price of WTI Crude Oil is above $94.00. Gold is languishing and around 4,675.00 USD. And although the 3 major U.S stock indices are all within their higher realms – one thing stands out – folks are uneasy.  But then again, the markets never move in one direction only, and perhaps current results can be interpreted as profit taking by those on winning sides.

US Cash Index 20260424

U.S Dollar Index One Month Chart on the 24th April 2026

I would love to be the person to tell you what is going to happen, but as this weekend looms making short and near-term bets still appears a fool’s game. Yes, it is easy to make predictions, but being correct is more difficult. Retail traders are suffering more than most market participants, this as leverage and a lack of funds to remain in a position through violent reversals destroy plenty of trading accounts.

There is talk of manipulation via chat rooms regarding the price of WTI Crude Oil. The usual dialogues can be seen – largely based on conspiracies via large players trying to blow out smaller traders. However, these types of forum chatter are mostly wrong. Large players are getting hurt too in the energy markets. Anyone who is taking a position in order to speculate on a quick hitting foray in WTI is betting on their perceptions. 

The problem is that unless there is inside knowledge of what the next words out of President Trump’s mouth are going to be, or that from Iranian officials – any pursuit of WTI Crude Oil at this juncture is a ‘vibe’ trade. What is going to happen from Saturday and into Sunday is an unknown quantity. Folks holding positions into this weekend need to understand they are wagering. And some may find they are quite profitable afterwards, while others grimace and find themselves on the wrong side of the next surges higher or spikes downward. Intraday trading volatility in nothing new however.

The USD/JPY is near 159.600 as of this writing. The EUR/USD is close to 1.16820. While a tourist traversing foreign lands may not find the Forex incremental shifts in value mesmerizing or of interest, FX traders who do not have deep pockets are likely wondering why risk adverse conditions are prevailing suddenly. But as a risk analyst, I must say that conditions simply may have been perceived to have been oversold in the USD by financial institutions, this as the Fed looms on the horizon.

However, my task as a risk analyst the past two months has been like a carnival barker, because while it has been easy to say that a show is happening within the big tent of speculation, I have been hard pressed to predict short and near-term directions correctly. Perhaps I fret too much. The optimistic thunder claps upwards in the stock markets since the 31st of March have been astounding to many. Hopefully it has been prosperous for day traders, but the likelihood is that financial institutions are the ones who are profiting more via their pension funds purchases for institutional clients.

This coming week the U.S Federal Reserve will make their FOMC decision public. This will be Jerome Powell’s swan song at the Fed. The Chairman is being faded out by the U.S White House mid-May. And somewhere when he is all alone, Jerome Powell may be having a quiet laugh to himself. The Fed will not act this week. Rates will remain the same – unless there is some bizarre move in the global markets over the next handful of days. Yet, Powell’s remarks will be listened to for warnings. While it is not in Powell’s nature to issue a ‘I told you so’ quote, and he is likely content to walk away from the Federal Reserve quietly, it would be captivating if Powell looked into the cameras and pointed fingers. 

But because Jerome Powell like most others, likely has no clue what is going to happen next internationally he will remain mostly mute (cautious as always).

And here we meet again, wondering what the next 72 hours hold. Will the Iranian ceasefire remain observed? Is it even a ceasefire in reality? The Strait of Hormuz remains a linchpin for military action by the U.S Navy and Iranian Revolutionary Guards via a cascade of ship seizures. Maybe that continues to be the key, WTI Crude Oil prices remain a crucial barometer. USD centric prices via Forex action seems to be a reflection of fear or positive thinking in the energy sector depending on the prevailing tides.

Last week there was so much optimism folks were talking about WTI prices potentially hitting $75.00 and lower, now this hope seems to be wishful thinking. Global markets will remain fast and dangerous, that is easy to say and is right, but telling you which direction assets will move, that is a bit different.

And there is the old standard test I use when an opinion is definitely asked for: if someone were to put a gun theoretically to my head and ask me what I think, I would venture to say things will remain quiet and optimism will seep into the markets before the close this weekend. However, I don’t like to play fool’s games, so I will leave now and wish you luck via your own perspectives because the near-term remains more speculative than normal for day traders – even if strict risk management is used. 

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postN87

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles and Missives for the 29th of March, 2026

by with No Comment AssetsBasketballBehavioral SentimentBusinessEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingRisk Management

The Iranian War Dominates our Lack of Humor

10. Final Four: The Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship will be set after today’s games. The Arizona Wildcats, our pick, advanced to the Final 4 by beating Purdue last night. Michigan is favored to beat Tennessee and the Duke vs. UConn game is anticipated to be close. The University of Illinois advanced by beating Iowa on Saturday and maybe the biggest underdog – if the Volunteers lose to the Wolverines today.

postN87

AMT Top Ten for the 29th of March 2026

9. Jobs Data: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published during a banking holiday on the 3rd of April, this as the Iranian war shadows investment sentiment. Will potential jobs numbers results create nervousness on Thursday, and side effects Monday the 6th of April? 

8. Private Equity: Outflows remain a problem for BlackRock and other firms as deal making comes under a bright light. Investors are questioning valuations, lack of exits and money that sits in ‘zombie’ funds. Imposed limits on redemptions by some firms have created nervous indicators. Is the private equity problem correlated to lackluster momentum on Wall Street, this as desire for the next big thing runs out of marketing hyperbole?

7. 10-Y Notes: U.S 10-Year Treasury yields finished the week near 4.43%, Friday’s price action saw an apex around the 4.48% vicinity, highlighting nervousness. On Friday the 27th of February 10-Y yields were close to 3.94%,

6. Forex: USD/JPY ended this past Friday around 160.250, making it cheaper for tourists to visit Japan as cherry blossom season starts this week and lasts into early May. However, the Bank of Japan and Japanese citizens are not amused by the weakening Yen. USD centric strength continues to resonate loudly. 

5. Fed: Potential drama surrounding the U.S central bank and the replacement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has taken a backseat to the Middle East conflict. Concerns about inflation are legitimate. The Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to defend an interest rate cut in the mid-term.

4. President Trump: Speaking from both sides of his mouth (and his opponents might say another area of the body) may be strategic genius from the White House regarding Iran or prove to be a lack of focus. However, it certainly keeps everyone guessing what is going to happen next in the Middle East.

3. $100.00: WTI Crude Oil prices have remained below the one-hundred level for the most part during the Iranian war, yes – there have been outliers above. Will we begin to see sustained prices above the century mark this week? Short-term reactions to the U.S military potentially seizing Iran’s Kharg island would certainly cause price chaos, but could it also soothe some large players in the energy sector via mid-term outlooks? 

2. Good Friday: The holiday at the end of this week will be effected by anxious behavioral sentiment. The potential of a long weekend with plenty of noisy chatter could make for nervous investors this coming Thursday as they position themselves ahead of possible escalating storms.

1. Fear: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have entered corrective depths. Who will be brave enough to start looking for bottoms as the Iranian war rages with no end in sight? Will a reversal upwards emerge this week?

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WTI Crude Oil 20260309

Fear Factor High in Oil Markets and Outlook is King

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessCommoditiesIndiaWorld

WTI Crude Oil Trading in a Storm (War)

Writing from within the storm, it would be easy to feel a strong sense of nervousness as the newest Middle East War rages. However, this is unlikely the beginning of World War 3. Traders looking at WTI Crude Oil this morning have seen the commodity launch over $110.00. But the price has seen a slight dip and is now hovering above $105.00 in albeit fast conditions.

WTI Crude Oil 20260309

WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart on 9th March 2026

Behavioral sentiment is nervous, there is no disregarding that notion and taking it seriously. Iran has been firing missiles and drones at neighbors and Saudi Arabia has been effected via some of their oil production. The Strait of Hormuz is certainly seeing an escalation in tension and is threatening to become a sea battle.

However, while the price of WTI Crude Oil rocks higher and day traders either make or lose money fast, speculators wager on short and near-term notions, there is likely a group of folks taking another approach and watching cash prices compared to options.

Yes, the intra-day price of WTI Crude Oil and all other energy sources will remain volatile near-term, but those with a mid and long-term outlook may be betting on optimism and the belief an end game will produce calmer prices. 

WTI Crude Oil is up close to 40% percent when a mid-term perspective is used. Will the commodity remain above 100.00 USD six months from now? Will WTI Crude Oil be above $100.00 three months from now or even one?

This thinking may deliver some type of price resistance in WTI Crude Oil. Certainly, there is a chance of greater escalation. But even though it was widely reported that oil facilities in Iran were bombed this weekend by Israel, the terminals hit were on the outskirts of Teheran, not on the island of Kharg. As dangerous as the war has become and the potential of worse damage occurring, those who are striking Iran do not want to damage Kharg terminals – at least not yet.

As for endgame, Russian oil is being allowed to be sold more easily, sanctions have been relaxed. Thus, it can be said there are international efforts to fight against price spikes. There are concerns about higher oil prices causing bedlam via inflation for the global economy rightfully. However, at some juncture things will eventually calm down. And that is what day traders need to keep in mind as WTI Crude Oil has raced higher, the notion that tactically the Iranian war will reach a de-escalation period is reasonable. 

Yes, there is a threat that Iran plays the an ‘Armageddon’ card and tries to destroy all vital energy resources in the Middle East, but we have likely passed that stage. Iran in many respects, respectfully, has been declawed. Iran can threaten, but can it really bite at this point? The island of Kharg is a key barometer, its facilities remain mostly kept out of the destruction zone, WTI Crude Oil may not spike too much higher.

As for highs, this morning’s jump occurred on fear, however the price has started to calm. We could certainly still see higher values in WTI Crude Oil this week or next, but thoughts about the potential of an end game resolving the current dangers, whatever that may be and no matter how long it will take – may prove to be an important ointment.  Time shall tell.

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Troll

Risk Analysis versus Trolls Demanding to Know the Impossible

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementRobert Petrucci

Behavioral Sentiment Fatigue and Long-Term Opportunities

As I write Gold remains below $5,000.00. Silver is slightly above $75.00. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 remain cautious. And my favorite exclusion choice – MicroStrategy is struggling below $129.00. The markets in general appear to be waiting for a dose of impetus, be it positive or negative. Some investors who are brave may believe assets have reached an accumulation phase as support levels get tested in equity markets. They hopefully also understand that the equity indices can go lower and they may suffer for a while as prices decline. And because of this notion, perhaps the larger investors remain ultra-cautious and are trying to time when they will re-enter the marketplace as a forceful buyer. In the meantime bonds will be bought as signals are awaited on for long-term positions in the major indices.

Troll

However, there is also a large contingent of traders who are not looking for long-term investment, instead they are hoping to take advantage of short-term price movement – positive and negative – depending on their philosophies. These folks may be part of hedge funds, or simply large players who believe they have the benefit of experience and know-how.

And then there are folks like me who watch the market and offer analysis on current conditions. I am of the opinion the broad markets are nervous and that behavioral sentiment remains troubled. While I know that experienced large players and financial institutions are accustomed to noise, there seems to be sense that an attitude of fatigue is being felt. People are tired of dealing with the constant amplitude of policy threats and risks. However, this insight regarding tired minds and markets may serve a purpose, it is possible long-term players will see current conditions as an opportunity to buy and hold.

If short-term players such as hedge funds and large speculators are too busy being nervous and assets are straddling prices in equities that are seen as potentially oversold by others, real value can be accumulated and waited upon to produce more growth. This is still a gamble, there are no guarantees. The markets go up and they go down. Cycles occur and new traders are often perplexed when their insights do not come to fruition. Patience is needed. And it is also good to have others in your ear who serve as contrarian advocates offering different opinions that you may not find agreement.

Perhaps you know someone who has an interest in the financial markets and is the same good friend. There is even a chance that you have worked with this person professionally, and have shared ideas on business management, organization and scaling trades and investing. And there is a chance that even though you like this person and find them completely engaging, that you disagree with everything they say.

Trust me when I say my friend (colleague) knows I am talking about them, and suffice it to say that I know he will completely disagree with my further comments, but also quietly embrace the words and believe he is serving his function as a voice of reason. He will not call himself a devil’s advocate, but as someone who serves to create focus. He is the person that says charge ahead, aim for an outcome and tell people what you think. He wants values to look for and timeframes to take action.

However, as a risk manager I frequently find myself being cautious, I try not to make outlandish predictions and try to remain conservative in my approach. I tend to think long-term, while he the trader frequently acts on short-term intuition with a focus on the future per his perspectives. But timing the market and exactly what is going to happen in the next five minutes, one hour, day and sometimes even a week remains a difficult and often an expensive game, I am constantly vigilant of this possible plight.

When I wrote that Silver appeared to be in a speculative mode and feared the highs, and told folks to be prepared for the metal returning to earth it was appreciated by my associate, but it also came with the question of when. When is Silver going to fall, he would ask. And I typically answered that patience was needed. And now that Silver has fallen he says, ‘you warned us that Silver would fall, but didn’t say when’, and he is correct. I cannot give an exact answer because I am not a master of the universe.

Day traders need to know that their CFD positions do not move the cash market. And even participants in the cash market are actually mostly wagering in the futures markets via exchanges and hoping for prices to move in their chosen direction only. Most people choosing to trade in the futures markets do not want to take deliverables of a commodity. Speculators in the futures markets may dream about taking Gold and Silver deliverables, but they know logically they cannot. The same goes for traders in futures with agricultural products and soft commodities.

To buy or not to buy is not the question. To participate or not to participate is the question. You do not have to trade every day, even if you are a short-term speculator. You can watch the markets. Sometimes the best trades you will ever make are the ones you do not pursue.

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Cactus flower 20260121

Emotional and Speculative Market Could Spark Trouble

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculators

Day Trading Problems: Not Everyday Produces a Profitable Outcome

Early indications show that U.S markets will produce volatility today. The EUR/USD is straddling the 1.19000 level, Gold is around $5005.00. Bitcoin for those that care is near 68,700.00 USD.

Cactus flower 20260121

Flowering Cactus

Not everyday produces profits. That is rather easily dealt with by large speculators, big players and financial institutions who have the time and money to withstand short and near-term storms. The current markets represent danger if you listen to the noise from outside sources – media, analysts and influencers engaged in trying to create opinions a lot of the time. However, bias must be distinguished and another very fundamental thing needs to be accessed.

Day trading is not the same as being a large speculator, big player or financial institution. Day trading usually means a person is a retail trader, a client therefore of a brokerage house. Day traders do not typically have deep pockets.

Getting caught up in the fear factor is a quick way to lose money fast. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, U.S major indices, Forex have all delivered volatile trading the past few weeks. What looks like a gentle day on tap for day traders must always be treated carefully.

This week the U.S will release Retail Sales, Non-Farm Employment Change data and Consumer Price Index readings.

The jobs numbers which traditionally get released on Fridays and should have been published last week, were delayed because of the quasi-govt shutdown which happened. 

Last night’s Super Bowl was a rather lackluster game, while this has nothing to do with the markets, perhaps it will cause some type of reaction via a need for more noise (emotions) to be heard by those who have a desire for attention they do not deserve. No do not worry, the game’s outcome is not going to affect today’s trading. However, via behavioral sentiment this week’s coming results across a wide range of assets are set to be more entertaining than the Seahawks victory over the Patriots last night.

Day traders have likely made money for their brokers the past couple of weeks as they have taken hits because of volatility. This week could provide more choppiness. Retail traders need to remain careful and not bet on things simply because someone else suggests they are an expert on world affairs when they in actuality are merely getting paid to make noise and sell more bets. And by the way, betting on the Patriots last night to win just because they had won so many times before is a reminder past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

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Gold: Not a Love Note but Recognition of Long-Term Importance

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Gold: Not a Love Note but Recognition of Long-Term Importance

The U.S is now starting its second week of the government shutdown. Gold is near $4,190.00 as of this writing, which may be looked on as sign by some that some investors have bought into the precious metal because of a lack of faith in certain things. ‘Certain things’ being written in a way that points out the rather complex mix of perceptions that could quantify into all moving parts causing the bull run.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 15th October 2025

If you are a regular reader you will probably have figured out that I do not believe Gold is traversing higher because of a mere government shutdown. The precious metal has seen an upwards trend develop in earnest since the middle of October 2022 when it was trading around $1,640.00. Behavioral sentiment is important within Gold, and this has been the case for almost 6,000 years according to archeologists and historians.

In August 2011 Gold was near $1,900.00. In December of 2015 the precious metal was back to almost $1,000.00. This is written to show that in a little more than a four year period Gold lost nearly half its value in the relatively recent past.

This doesn’t mean I am writing to warn Gold is going to lose half its value suddenly and will be testing $2,000.00 in four years time. It points out that even though the precious metal is considered a hedge against inflation, that speculative elements are fantastically strong when large players buy and sell in unison and can cause periods in which Gold becomes overvalued and then experiences downturns.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 15th October 2025

We have seen this bullish show in Gold before. Milestone numbers are significant in the minds of the public, which often causes the thinking that they should have bought some gold in the past when it was cheaper. But interestingly enough for Gold is that it is almost always considered expensive by the general public. The value of fiat currency is highly correlated to the value of Gold in an unflattering way. While this is an obvious statement for many, it is important to note that we are all looking at the value of Gold while using hindsight.

Yes, I can hear influencers singing in unison in the background ‘do not forget about Bitcoin’, but I ask permission to do so. Hindsight is not always comfortable and I have been proven wrong about the digital currency frequently. However, I still remain somewhat optimistic that my bet on Gold is a better wager compared to Bitcoin regarding value in the future. And by future I mean for all-time. There is not enough foresight to know what Gold will be valued in one thousand years compared to Bitcoin. Yet, I remain much more confident about Gold being around than BTC in a millennium.

People can speak about a debasement of fiat currencies, including the USD. Like it or not the USD remains the dominant go to currency of global enterprise and this is unlikely to change over the next decade. The USD and other currencies are plagued by a constant loss of overall value due to inflation caused by a myriad of reasons. Rising prices in goods are unlikely to suddenly disappear, the costs of commerce and consumer products may start to gradually slow periodically, but the price of things seldom grows cheaper over the long-term.

Yes, the case can be made that by owning Gold it does not serve the economy well, because it is not an asset that is easily spent, but that is an argument for Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman to enjoy in heaven. In the meantime down here on Earth, Gold can be speculated upon, bought and sold, and treated as a precious metal that will likely always be valued highly.

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Gold Chart Prices since 1925

This is not a love note for Gold, it is meant as a way to say the precious metal is fairly priced considering the state of the world. $4,000.00 per an ounce of Gold could certainly turn into $5,000.00 in the not so distant future – like six months or one year depending on zeal. Speculative elements certainly aim for targets that psychologically please aspirations.

Day traders as always are faced with a dilemma. Looking for more upside and partaking in the bullish trend is a logical thought and perhaps even wager, but the use of leverage while battling the intraday and intraweek reversals in the marketplace make the ambition of profiting on Gold comparable to time spent at the casino. We know winners talk much louder about their money gained compared to the losers who vanish into the crowd and keep quiet.

So I write this as a warning, Gold may not be worth more one year from now than it is today. However, I will venture forth the notion that in ten years time Gold will be significantly valued higher than it is today. Will inflation suddenly be tamed globally, will confidence in fiat currencies emerge with a strong dose of optimism? No. Certain fiat currencies will do better than others via Forex. However, as a store of value Gold will likely remain an impressive asset to own.

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Opportunity? Market Ambition as Day Trading Volatility Looms

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Opportunity? Market Ambition as Day Trading Volatility Looms

The U.S government shutdown looks like it will take place at 12:01 am EST on Wednesday, this if Washington D.C politicians fail to agree to a funding gap. There have been significant shutdowns in the past, thus financial institutions though not in love with concept are adept at continuing to trade during the events. President Trump’s first term in office produced a long shutdown from the 22nd of Dec. 2018 until the 25th of January 2019. President Obama’s White House had a 16 day affair in 2013. And President Clinton’s administration dealt with a shutdown lasting 21 days.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart as of 30th September 2025

While the financial markets will certainly survive and long-term investors will likely remain rather sedate during this developing saga, day traders need to brace for volatility. Opportunities may develop if Forex, U.S equities and gold see reactions per perceived safe haven endeavors by some investors. However, wagering in markets when shifting tides are happening due to sentiment torrents could prove difficult for speculators. Timing the market and its gyrations caused by potential mood changes poses threats for small traders.

And that is why it will be important to actually remain patient in the coming days. The Democrats appear ready to try and score a political win against President Trump. But what would a win look like? The public is seldom fooled by the government shutdowns. While government offices shutter and economic data publication dates will be postponed, the rest of the world will move forward.

Day traders should not be tricked into panic. Nor should they react too fast based on fears that are not legitimate. The U.S major indices may languish during a government shutdown, but it is also conceivable that they may perform rather well. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 are all within sight of their highest realms. The USD may find some buying action, but just like trades that have already been digested into the market when the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decisions are anticipated and acted upon, speculators should be prepared for counter-intuitive moves. In other words do not be surprised if sudden reversals in Forex via the USD develop.

Traders looking for discounts to emerge will need to be careful, but if the equity markets were to suffer a strong downturn on heightened nervousness, having a longer-term approach to speculative positions could become worthwhile. Gold which is traversing within record values may prove to be a significant near-term barometer as a safe haven gauge in the coming days. But then again gold has been within a sincere bullish trend over the long-term, so buying if produced near-term needs to be looked at suspiciously. In other words, the bullish trend in gold while getting perhaps an additional dose of fuel to ignite higher because of the potential U.S government shutdown should also be treated carefully and not traded with blind ambition.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 30th September 2025

The potential of a U.S government shutdown is a big event, but it is intransigence that financial institutions and big investors do not want to see. As long as some aspects of communication are being shared transparently with the public regarding negotiations in Washington D.C, many markets are likely to remain rather unbothered. How long will the U.S government shutdown last this time? It might all depend on how long the Democrats believe they can get the most out of the shutdown if it adds to their political image.

Both the Democrats and Republicans will want to get through the coming days as unscathed as possible. Why? Because both want to retain their power. One question waiting to be answered during this conundrum is who will come out looking best? If the financial markets begin to suffer there will be a lot of finger pointing by both sides. And again, importantly, financial institutions are unlikely to be fooled. Investors want clarity, the markets will only suffer if big players feel the crisis in Washington can cause potentially long lasting damage.
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Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

Everyone wants to know what will happen in the future in the financial world. Most everyone also knows that this is impossible. However, clarity about the mid-term is a legitimate focal point that financial institutions strive. Risk managers define their considerations on assorted perspectives depending on their backgrounds.

While some may like him and others clearly are are not fans, President Trump has a reputation for wanting to get things done. His calling card for a long time has been an ability to make business deals. President Trump however has put himself in a rather difficult position and the next two weeks may prove to be an important milestone. One in which those who like the President and those who don’t will be given more credence to debate.

The Federal Reserve will announce their FOMC decision on the 30th of July. Tariff deadlines will supposedly come on the 1st of August. President Trump has made it clear he does not like the lack of aggressiveness which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is displaying. Trump has called for the Federal Funds Rate to be cut and Powell has not acquiesced.

President Trump has openly spoken about trying to replace the Fed Chairman, but at this juncture the Trump White House knows this will be difficult unless they can prove Jerome Powell has done something maliciously. Not lowering the Federal Funds Rate because of a fear inflation will develop because of potential effects due to tariff fallout is a legitimate reason not to act. Even if the Fed Chairman is wrong, he appears to still be working on a basis which is based on an economic interpretation.

For the next two weeks the broad markets will hear about the Trump and Powell disagreement. It has been argued the Federal Reserve should have lowered the Federal Funds Rate a few months ago, clearly this was not done. However, the USD did trade with weaker sentiment in Forex from early April until the beginning of July. In the past few weeks the USD has garnered some strength, but remains within the lower part of its long-term realms via the U.S Dollar Cash Index. The weakness in the USD was likely due to financial institutions betting on rate cuts to come over the mid and long-term, and which they still believe will happen.

The upwards momentum generated recently by the USD has put the greenback in a position that seems to indicate financial institutions are transacting their cash forward orders cautiously for the moment, while waiting on the next round of impetus. And that is where Federal Reserve clarity and tariff threats now shadow mid-term outlooks.

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U.S Dollar Cash Index Five Year Chart as of 21st July 2025

We have entered an unpredictable window and President Trump apparently doesn’t mind allowing a little danger into the mindsets of the financial markets. It is one thing to proclaim tremendous results and great, magnificent prospects, but how long will investors tolerate a lack of clarity regarding tariff agreements? President Trump has postponed the tariff deadlines several times and what should be considered is the potential that at some point he will have to take action to prove he means business. If the August 1st deadline is extended again this may not cause much of a shock, but it will not be met with optimism.

Instead, the main interpretation from financial institutions may be that Trump is struggling to get agreements done as he had promised. While that might lead to the idea that global commerce will continue on as is, this will certainly not help create the positive impetus which President Trump desired. At some juncture President Trump may begin to be perceived as the little boy that cried wolf. No one will pay attention and the markets will proceed without him. But President Trump will not likely let that happen, he does like attention.

The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 are near record highs, so there isn’t a lot to complain about by index investors. The U.S economy has shown signs of green shoots regarding better retail sales and the recent Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The grey area for many remains inflation, which has been coming in rather well behaved although the most recent report showed a slightly higher outcome with the yearly CPI reading. However, the Federal Reserve actually has evidence that inflation has been tame. Yes, there are questions regarding the coming influence of tariffs on the U.S economy, but for the moment inflation has not risen.

The lack of clarity and not having a mid-term comfort level which is unperturbed may be problematic for small U.S business owners that face tariff concerns on their imported goods. And the bigger picture remains unclear for large U.S corporations – but they certainly continue to try being optimistic. And this is where it gets more dangerous, plenty of perspectives are being driven (inspired) by analysts who have confirmation bias. For instance the downturn in the USD from April until early July was amplified by many who saw this as a sign the USD was being punished by foreign governments opposed to President Trump. This in fact was highly unlikely, traders need to remain alert to false narratives.

The next two weeks need to be treated carefully. There will be a running monologue among many analysts that changes daily as behavioral sentiment moves depending on what is being spoken about the Federal Reserve and tariffs. However, until there are actual answers the financial markets are likely to remain rather choppy. Self awareness will be crucial for speculators. Also, a large factor in the financial markets will be played by the U.S White House regarding how incoming results are presented. Until then day traders may want to watch technical charts and try to figure out where programmed trading lurks regarding support and resistance levels. Price velocity in Forex, bond yields and gold should be monitored.

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Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

Taco Friday is upon us. Fair or not the newly coined expression TACO – Trump always chickens out – is a rather savvy way of looking at current market perspectives. Day traders have run into a buzzsaw trying to speculate on daily gyrations, but investors who have the ability to accumulate based on valuations in equities, Forex and perhaps even commodities such as gold and WTI Crude Oil have likely enjoyed the choppy ride the past handful of months.

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Nvidia One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders who are betting on the daily whims of Forex or the stock markets have been participating in assets being stirred by a constant storm via behavioral sentiment shifts caused by White House rhetoric. President Trump has said the expression is mean. And in fact the Taco statement may be wrong all together, because what has gone down and back up, has also gone down again followed by additional reversals. But let’s put ego and wrong notions to the side for a moment. Because the important point about the Taco expression is actually about finding value.

Let’s consider that financial institutions have experience and skin in the game. The ability to buy stocks on lows and accumulate them based on a long-term mindset is likely going to prove correct. Consider Nvidia, it has suffered pratfalls, but continues to recover and pick itself off the floor and is now challenging highs again. Yes, the SP500, Nasdaq and Dow30 have all seen what can be described as whipsaw results. However, the optimistic notion that common sense rules and quality will prevail is a feature of investing. Blood on the streets as Warren Buffet has often said, is not a bad thing, it is an opportunity.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders attempting to time the markets have always experienced a great deal of pain when speculating on notions that ‘now is the time’. Patience often proves to be worthwhile in trading and investing. Anyone who claims they are constantly buying exactly on lows and selling on apex values should be treated suspiciously. Attempting to time highs and lows is a bit like gambling on sports without any inside knowledge, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

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U.S Dollar Index as of 30th May 2025

In Forex the USD has been battered but continues to produce sudden violent price action. Today’s Core PCE Price Index from the U.S is expected to produce a 0.1% increase – which would be considered negligible by the markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently met with the President for the first time since Trump took control of the White House this term. The President is on the record as saying the Fed should cut interest rates now, this while Powell repeats the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively.

Today’s inflation report is a vital statistical report for the Federal Reserve and will stir Forex. Perhaps, Jerome Powell should consider the Taco expression and understand that while talking tough Trump often is only expressing a strong stance to achieve a middle ground. If inflation numbers are near the forecasted outlook, the Fed should certainly cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, investors who have been accumulating stock on lower values and are playing a long game, may also be counting on ignition fuel being poured upon the markets to create a dynamic bullish run via positive impetus. Yet, even if profits are not achieved in the short-term, investors also understand they are being given an opportunity via the occasional outbursts from President Trump to take advantage of a rather delicious tactic.