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AMT Commodities Corner: WTI Crude Oil and Coffee Arabica Speculative Prospects

November 11, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Commodities Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Financial Institutions Forex Risk Management Robert Petrucci Speculators Uncategorized World

Sentiment and Outlooks are King in WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil has seen a solid path lower in the past week of trading. In the wake of the U.S mid-term election results some large players have clearly established a positive outlook regarding their perceived scenarios for the Iranian war and the potential implications for improved secure supply. President Trump has confirmed publicly that he believes Iran and the U.S have had better discussions about a possible resolution to end the conflict.

However, doubters still remain anxious, because as President Trump has clearly demonstrated his viewpoints and stances can change dramatically and without much prior notice, often causing market whiplash for speculators and investors. Energy supply from the Middle East remains a delicate endeavor.

Viridian Commodity Intelligence Momentum – Drivers vs Price Data as of 11th November 2026

Fundamental Price Drivers vs. Human Instinct in WTI Crude Oil

The Viridian Commodity Intelligence momentum driver vs. price graph is showing the potential of upwards moves in WTI Crude Oil as of this writing. Retail traders need to remember sentiment for the moment remains king, and it is a skittish king – one prone to the Middle East saga. The price of WTI Crude Oil did touch a low of nearly $84.400 during yesterday’s price action. The slight move higher can be treated as a normal intraday activity when taking into consideration orders via large players in the marketplace. Trying to get a firm grasp on short-term price action remains difficult at best for retail traders.

There is something to be clearly said for improved outlooks. President Trump might find taking action in the Middle East more difficult within the current political reality of Washington D.C and may want to act sooner rather than later. Because when the Democratic Party led Congress arrives in early January, President Trump will find some of his power eroding and perhaps feel influenced by a desire to create legacy – even among those who dislike him.

Some people (including traders) might be more inclined to be optimistic about their outlooks because of human nature and instincts which often create wishful thinking for hard to predict outcomes, but we should remember the price of WTI Crude Oil remains within the a rather expensive price realm because doubts remain substantial. Thus, producing the higher sticky terrain regarding current price and its speculative playground.

WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 11th November 2026

Where is WTI Crude Oil Pricing Going?

Supply of WTI via Oklahoma’s production may be large and U.S producers may be drilling with significant success, but caution about the Middle East still lurks. Earlier this week a Houthi missile hit Saudi Arabia’s Aramco building in Riyadh. While it has been treated largely as a ‘nothing to see event’ (swept under the carpet by many media outlets too), the hit on the famed Saudi building highlights the sudden dangers that still exists and threaten to ignite.

Saudi Arabia has done almost everything it can to try and limit an escalation of fighting in Yemen, but nearby – the rhetoric between the U.S and Iran remains saber-rattling terrain. Perhaps this observation should be taken in the light that this is how Middle East negotiations and diplomacy often work. Pointed accusations, passionate speeches are normal – it is true, so it is up to large players involved in the WTI Crude Oil market to decide on their current sentiment which creates fast conditions.

While the price action from the past week has certainly shown a selloff predominate, quick reversals and higher intraday are still a significant threat. However, from a mid-term perspective, looking for price action in WTI Crude Oil to move lower appears to be logical and may produce further bets on lower prices and act as a catalyst for wagering. And no doubt this could be my own biased optimistic rose colored glasses opinion.

Lower Prices in Coffee Arabica and the Influence of Narrative on Sentiment

Coffee Arabica continues to face downwards pressure, the price of the commodity as of this writing is near 266.75. Plenty of explanations can be heard regarding Coffee Arabica’s downturn in recent trading. For instance, the USD/BRL closed at 5.5800 yesterday and continues to traverse high water (simmering coffee) marks in the wake of nervousness created by Brazil’s election results and ramifications for its financial markets, but also as USD centric price action is stubborn.

Before the Brazilian election the USD/BRL was near 5.0500. While plenty of narrative has centered on the potential that a Forex discount has emerged in the Coffee market because of the cheaper Brazilian Real, let’s please remember before the election that supply via solid crops was known to be good in Brazil. Also, it needs to be pointed out that Coffee Arabica was near it current prices (and actually below these depths from late May until the middle of June this year) before fear mongering about a questionable harvest due to strong rains in Brazil emerged during the later days of June – and was eventually proven wrong.

Coffee Arabica One Year Chart as of 11th November 2026

What if the Weather Forecasters are Wrong?

Now there is talk about the potential of El Nino effects on Brazil and the crops to be grown, but for now this remains nervous chatter. Weather forecasts have been known to have proven incorrect before. And please note, there is a lot of supply coming from elsewhere nowadays, including other parts of South America, and some parts of Asia and Africa. We are not about to run out of Coffee folks. Current prices are approaching important support levels, and this is after a year in which Coffee Arabica has been sliding back to a known historical price range, and is still above values seen before the bull market hit the commodity from October 2023 until October 2025. Apex prices were challenging the $425.00 ratio in September and October of 2025.

Coffee Arabica is a fast and often supercharged commodity that some retail traders like to wager on as they try to ride the momentum created by big players. Tactical use of ordering is needed, also accompanied by a solid amount of cash in a trading account in order to safely navigate intraday violence which often is demonstrated. If Coffee Arabica continues to sustain prices below $270.00 near-term, June’s early lows that saw the $250.00 ratio challenged would not be surprising to see emerge again. Risk management is needed by retail traders however, this as they attempt to swim with the large predatory players in the marketplace.

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AMT Commodities Corner: Can Blue Wave Change Momentum of Black Gold?

November 4, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Commodities Equities Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Forex India Major Global Equity Indices Risk Management Robert Petrucci Speculators Uncategorized World

President Trump's Reaction to Election Defeat Matters for WTI Crude Oil

A blue Democratic Party wave has hit the U.S in the past day and early this morning as votes are still being counted and clearly show a definitive victory for the Democrats. The manner in which President Trump reacts to the election defeat will influence the price of WTI Crude Oil greatly, because his handling of the Iranian situation will now be confronted by new political obstacles. The current price of WTI Crude Oil cash is near $97.00 as of this writing.

In the past few days WTI Crude has come off of fearful highs which challenged values above $106.00 last Friday on the 30th of October. In early trading this morning the price of WTI Crude Oil cash has lowered slightly, but has begun to show slight signs of consolidation again. Some speculators may be eyeing a renewed testing ground around the $96.00 ratio with some lower momentum being seen. However, before speculators rush into a wave of additional selling they should note that WTI Crude Oil remains within a cautiously priced realm as large players clearly remain worried about potential impacts if the Iranian situation worsens.

WTI Crude Oil Price and OECD Commercial Inventories via Viridian Commodity Intelligence on the 4th November 2026

And here is where things will get tricky in the near-term for retail traders as they try to weigh their perceptions and anticipate the reaction of the bigger forces in the energy market that will move values. The outcome of the U.S mid-term elections last night may cause some large players in WTI Crude Oil to feel more optimistic about a possibly quicker conclusion to the Iranian war which has been staunchly in the headlines since late February.

However, key factors remain unanswered regarding consequences, and short-term notions must be compared to mid-term timetables. What will President Trump’s immediate reaction rhetorically be regarding ‘his’ election defeat and what he now views as viable as he presses forth against Iran? How will energy demand and inventories be influenced in the coming weeks? For instance the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) commercial inventories reporting via Viridian Commodities Intelligence shows supply remains low among member nations. Meaning that a perceived escalation to come in Iran could create more headwinds and sustain negative outlooks. Suggesting fears which still exist about the Iranian situation may be priced into WTI Crude Oil because supply for the OECD nations remains vulnerable.

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 4th November 2026

Prices today and tomorrow should be watched carefully. A psychological test for large players in WTI Crude Oil will be factored by President Trump’s reactions to the strong Republican loss of power in the U.S House of Representatives and Senate. President Trump is still the Commander in Chief of the U.S military and his loss of Congressional backing may not stop him from escalating military conflict with Iran near-term.

Will President Trump sound more pragmatic and put his ego to the side and offer the Democrats an olive branch? Or will the President use the time between now and the 3rd of January – when the new Congress will be sworn in constitutionally to take advantage of his lame-duck window which will start to be felt in an increasingly harsh manner. Note that the 3rd of January 2027 falls on a Sunday, so the official swearing in date for Congress may be changed by a few days depending on what agreements are made.

President Trump is on the clock and in essence the Iranian war is too. The price of WTI Crude Oil which has been a swift speculative playground since February of this year is set for more dynamic price action. Short and near-term traders who want to ride the momentum of larger players in WTI Crude Oil should expect plenty of velocity the remainder of this week.

AMT Commodities Corner: WTI Crude Oil’s $100.00 Cautious Price Realm

October 21, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Commodities Economy Featured Highlights Risk Analysis Speculators Uncategorized World

Large Players and Retail Traders Awaiting More Noise in WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil continues to float around the $100.00 mark via cash as a plethora of information and rumors converge into noise that large players and retail traders must distinguish between. The price of the commodity remains seemingly frozen in a higher range that has become almost tight. An air of cautiousness surrounds WTI Crude Oil as nearly all participants brace for additional impetus which will shake value. Near-term wagering considerations appear to be leaning into the potential of negative developments which could ignite more upwards trajectory.

WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart as of 21st October

Inventory and Transits Confronted by Potential of Military Resumption

While there is evidence of solid supply coming out of the Hormuz Strait, nervousness surrounding the almost promise like rhetoric of additional military action in the Middle East has the WTI Crude Oil market on a nervous edge. U.S supply of WTI Crude Oil is showing better inventory numbers, however the OECD Commercial Inventory numbers appear to be faltering via information gathered from Viridian Commodities Intelligence.

OECD Commercial Inventories Data via the Viridian Commodity Intelligence on the 21st October

This highlights the assumption that logistics remain challenging to Europe and Asia and are creating higher energy costs globally as ordering remains concerned about delivery. Besides the inventory worries being felt, the anxiousness from the overwhelming shadow being cast over the Middle East regarding a resumption of intense military conflict is certainly supporting durable higher prices. However, the rather well-traversed $100.00 ratio in WTI Crude Oil remains difficult to pursue regarding short-term momentum technically for speculators who are simply trying to profit on a chosen direction.

What If Scenarios and Rhetoric and Threats From the U.S White House

Intraday pricing remains dynamic and retail traders are vulnerable to actions being generated by the constant whirlwinds of behavioral sentiment ambushing WTI Crude Oil. The current price in the cash market near the $100.550 realm must be given respect. While some traders may look at the current price and believe resistance will kick in and push values lower, rhetoric coming from the U.S White House continues to threaten that more military action is being planned for against Iran. Whether this is a negotiating tactic of President Trump to try and make the Iranian leadership capitulate can be debated until we are all blue in the face.

Furthermore, the emergence of Saudi Arabia as a hotspot in the Middle Eastern conflict has grown significantly. The military attacks from the Houthis of Yemen towards and into Saudi Arabia has certainly added to the upwards price in WTI Crude Oil as supply nervousness has turned from thoughts about a potential hazard into an actual realization regarding the consequences of escalation. As WTI traverses its higher values, traders need to understand the sticky inflated realm is factoring a ‘what if’ scenario.

Programed Algo Trading Versus Sentiment Shifts in WTI Crude Oil

With WTI Crude Oil traversing above $100.000 steadily, retail traders who have the ability to react quickly via their ordering skills could take advantage of quick swings in prices technically as support and resistance levels are tested. Yet, the danger of using a stop loss order in WTI Crude Oil has to be thought out wisely, because even as sentiment drives the market it is still being traded by algo systems geared towards values that coders target as saturated levels where they believe orders are congested.

In other words, algo systems will aim for targets until their programed coding has been achieved per momentum shifts. Yesterday’s high above $103.000 was met by a swift reversal lower which took WTI Crude Oil close to $97.000 before kickstarting upwards again. The lower prices were met by a wave of influencers it should be pointed out that exclaimed good news had overtaken the nervous sentiment which has been dominating the energy sector. However, sustained optimism has been and remains in short supply. The positive sounding influencers’ social media posts quickly disappeared.

Coming Elections and Lack of Optimistic Sunshine

Peace could come in our time. Yes, things could go quiet and get serene. However, betting on the emergence of optimistic sunshine shining brightly on the WTI Crude Oil market in the near-term is a far-flung bet. The U.S mid-term elections are on the 3^rd of November.

There should be little doubt in speculators mindsets that rhetoric towards Iran via the U.S White House is going to continue the next week and a half. Threats about the possibility of sudden military action taking place now remains part of the mix too, but because of the U.S election (and Israel’s vote on the 27^th of October) it seems unlikely there will be an escalation near-term unless Iran strikes first.

Ultra-Cautious Highs and Fast Moving Price Differentials

Wagering on WTI Crude Oil in the short and near-term should be done with solid emotional fortitude. The commodity continues to move quickly. Price differentials of 5.00 USD in a single day have become almost regular and this means leverage needs to remain conservative, particularly by traders who do not want to use nearby stop losses so they are not kicked out of positions before magic strikes. WTI Crude Oil is going to remain volatile and likely going to sustain its known higher price realm which is ultra-cautious.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Insights, Mischief and Concerns for the 22nd of September

September 22, 2026

by Staff with No Comment AMT Top Ten Artificial Intelligence Central Banks Commodities Economy Equities Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Financial Institutions Forex Investing Major Global Equity Indices Risk Management Uncategorized World

Trump's Saga, Market Conditions, Saudi Arabia, Investor Outlooks and More

10. Naima: John Coltrane’s classic composition from the late 1950’s should be listened to intently with eyes closed as his harmony and provocative ability to create a devotional hymn enchants. What do you hear? Instead of playing music for mere mortals, it sounds as if Coltrane is orchestrating for gods – take a moment to listen.

9. Upwards: Bitcoin, cough, cough is again making some look foolish as it traverses higher. As of this moment, BTC/USD is at $86,000 and making doubters – among them some AMT staff – shake their heads in disbelief (disdain). Michael Saylor’s Strategy/MicroStrategy entities have MSTR share prices around $168.00 per yesterday’s close. This is occurring as AI concerns because of its ability to challenge cybersecurity and coding of crypto remains relevant. Additionally, higher energy costs are causing miners to wince, running out of folks who are willing to speculate in the domain remains a danger (because of Ponzi suspicions), notions about government supervision getting stronger instead of becoming more lax, quantum technology, and known rogue nations keeping Bitcoin and other cryptos vibrant to hide illicit money shadow. But this is nothing to worry about it appears for Bitcoin believers and influencers.

AMT Top 10 Miscellaneous Insights, Mischief and Concerns for the 22nd of September

8. Unheralded Victories: While many were looking away purposely and likely do not want to give President Trump applause, Denmark extended the U.S administration not only an olive branch regarding Greenland, but perhaps a signal that they have acquiesced by expanding U.S security jurisdiction. From a foreign policy perspective the Trump administration has changed the Venezuela leadership, secured greater military capabilities in Greenland, and remains focused on bringing Cuba’s leadership to their knees as the island nation suffers from extended electrical outages.

7. Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffet stepped away from his job as Chairman on the 18th of September and named his son as successor. Share values via BRK.A were above $800,000 in April and March of 2025. This August BRK was again over $800,000. Yesterday’s close was near $752,000. Warren Buffet’s brand and era is coming to a close and the new leadership will be hard pressed to fill the confidence void. Berkshire Hathaway investors however, are some of the most loyal constituents in the marketplace. They will want to see a steady ship run by Howard Buffet and CEO Greg Abel.

6. New School: What will the Fed do now that they have raised the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a basis point on the 16th of September? Kevin Warsh has proven he is not exactly in the coat pocket of President Trump. After the Fed’s unanimous vote last week to raise rates, what happens on the 28th of October? Via Forex it appears financial institutions have braced their outlooks for another hike sometime later this year, but are they correct? Old theories via central banking to attack inflation with higher interest rates is a standard practice, but the escalating costs via higher energy prices has nothing to do with a sudden emergence of pent up demand, it is a supply shock that has caused more expensive WTI Crude Oil – not one driven by an increase in desire. Will Warsh prove he is new-school and proactively fight for lower interest rates sooner rather than later? Higher interest rates will not stop the Middle East saga from remaining an economic influence and spectacle.

5. Bank of Japan: Like the Fed the BoJ is not in a particularly safe space. After following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve last week, the interest rate hike of 0.25% by the BoJ was viewed as a rather lackluster move from financial institutions and Forex players who seemingly wanted an increase of at least 0.50%. The USD/JPY remains a volatile speculative wager and is above 156.850 – give or take the tantrums and punishment inflicted from the FX market. The Bank of Japan has only had 3+ decades of questionable policy, here’s to another decade worth of doubts and consistent critical observations from outsiders.

4. Hear No Trump: The U.S President is entering a dangerous political phase for his legacy and risks losing his grip on power. Mid-term elections are rapidly drawing closer and the White House could lose its Republican led majority of the House. The President is starting to be viewed as a lame-duck by some observers. Trump who is known for his ability to change his rhetorical stances and policies quickly is still at the epi-center of global affairs. The question is if other policy makers and nations are listening. The Republican party is entering a dangerous phase and its leadership is likely going to endure a rather loud fight for control as factions take sides. The Vance and Rubio camps are likely to grow louder and divergent.

3. Saudi Arabia: Ask a friend to point to Yemen on a map, can they do this correctly? The Houthis of Yemen and Saudi Arabia may feel like a world away from known geographies, but what is happening in the wake of attacks on port areas and islands in the Red Sea (and even Riyadh) is significant. Crude Oil production and shipping problems suffered because of pipeline vulnerability is a vital concern for energy supply to Europe and Asia. While large investors may feel like they have digested the dangers, Iran and its proxies – including the Houthis may have additional theater to present. WTI Crude Oil has come down in price since yesterday but remains volatile and is around $93.00. Will optimistic banter continue?

2. FOMO: The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 and their global counterparts are within their higher apexes as traders and financial institutions keep placing their money into these known asset spheres. The bond market is still producing high yields and folks are seemingly letting their casino like bets ride on a wheel they hope propels solid momentum for as long as possible. But alas, number 1, should make people pause:

1. Bandages: Perhaps our circle of contacts is too small, but behavioral sentiment is not exactly robust regarding positive market outlooks via mid-term queries. Concerns about equity indices, bond yields, inflation (because of sticky energy costs) and the general malaise that is hovering over the broad markets is not appealing. It feels as if sutures are keeping wounds from becoming infected in a haphazard manner. Investors are cautious and appear ready for the Band-Aid to be ripped off. The late ’90s and early 2000s dot.com bubble bursting, the 2006 bank and housing whispers and rumors flotilla which turned into the catastrophe of 2007-08 feel oddly similar. Perhaps it is a good time for accumulation if nothing seriously bad takes place in the markets. Circumstances feel as if a wave of blind market powers may harm those who seek never ending profits with a tsunami of losses. Perhaps it is a good time to be a speculator.

Fed Decision: Two Sides of a Dangerous Coin

September 16, 2026

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Assets Behavioral Sentiment Central Banks Commodities Economy Equities Featured Highlights Federal Reserve, Interest Rates Financial Institutions Forex India Investing Risk Management Speculators Uncategorized World

The Fed Should Not Raise Rates But It Will

What and who you believe will play an important part in today’s market for speculators. While investors who are looking at long-term prisms can comfortably wait on the decision from the Fed’s FOMC regarding interest rates later today, retail traders who are trying to profit on near-term wagers via momentum and are seeking to gain an advantage by knowing which way the wind is blowing have a difficult task ahead. Via results in the Forex market it appears many financial institutions have braced already for an interest rate hike of a quarter basis point.

However, what if the financial institutions and many analysts are wrong? What if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other FOMC voting members believe the White House and think that inflation will erode as price pressures ease when there is a remedy to the Iranian conflict. That would mean that they could debate with other Fed officials for no interest rate hike. Because if the Fed were to raise interest rates later today, thus making borrowing costlier for businesses and consumers – and potentially putting more strain on the U.S debt payments because of increasing Treasury yields, it would still not solve the higher costs of energy. (There is an argument below which negates this possible yield problem and one that is likely to be heard from some economists).

U.S 10-Y Treasury Yields Five Year Chart as of 16th September 2026

Yes, there is demand for fuel globally, but the demand for energy is not going to decrease because the U.S Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. In fact, it could make costs more expensive for businesses who are likely burning money via increased credit lines already created, this to transact their currently higher costs to guarantee effective supply of fuel to fund their logistics and manufacturing which they had not planned for while making their initial 2026 budget estimates prior to the Iranian war. In other words, a higher Federal Funds Rate will equate into higher costs for businesses.

$100.00+ WTI Crude Oil is Not A Friend

Per the other side of the coin, WTI Crude Oil has turned more expensive and volatile since March of this year. For a moment it looked like relief would be delivered via the supposed MoU between Iran and the U.S. WTI Crude Oil went below $80.00 periodically when optimism was peaked by White House rhetoric and calm waters in the Hormuz Strait were reported. Hopes for a return to WTI Crude Oil below $70.00 were viewed as legitimate.

However, the tranquility sought has vanished in the past couple of weeks and has grown more anxious as Saudi Arabia has become an important actor in the Middle East conflict as the Houthis and Iraqi militias cause havoc for the Saudi Arabian government. The price of WTI Crude Oil is now stubbornly above $100.00 and rumors about how Saudi Arabia is dealing with its own military confrontation and the way it is able to supply its own Crude Oil are confounding.

Which brings us back to the initial question regarding the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh, who will the Fed Chair listen to? Does he and other voting members of the FOMC believe there will be a quick fix to what has become stubbornly higher costs for WTI Crude Oil which is creating inflation? Or do they now have to objectively consider what may have been perceived as a temporary blip of elevated expenditures for the U.S economy as a potentially long-term problem? If Warsh and his cohorts believe the Iranian situation is going to find a remedy within the next four to five months, they should NOT raise interest rates today.

Again, while higher fuels costs are problematic, raising interest rates is not going to lower demand for WTI Crude Oil which is the chief instigator of higher inflation globally. It is not a question of who believes President Trump’s tantrums, it is a question concerning viability of a real end game to the Iranian situation. Plenty of Crude Oil exists, its production capabilities are strong, it is Middle East supply to Asia, Europe and Africa that is causing a problem and the higher cash and futures pricing for WTI Crude Oil. Thus, the lynchpin remains Iran. If their government capitulates and bends a knee, opening up the Hormuz Strait and stops plying its influence on the Houthis of Yemen and other militia groups in Iraq that are now causing problems for Saudi Arabia the price of WTI Crude Oil will drop dramatically.

If the situation is not rectified and the price of WTI Crude Oil remains elevated and Saudi Arabia doesn’t handle their confrontation which is turning increasingly militaristic, then it will not solve a higher interest rate initiative from the U.S Federal Reserve – unless the Fed is merely looking to decrease Treasury yields by increasing global demand for the bonds – thus hoping to increase their desirability.

Old School vs. New School

Today’s decision from the Fed comes down to old text books and failed central bank policies versus new economic considerations. An interest rate hike from the Fed may actually make circumstance more difficult for governments around the world trying to balance their own books.

For instance, higher yields on U.S debt are causing problems in India where some investors are shedding Indian Rupee assets and seeking the high yielding U.S Treasuries not only because of a ‘guaranteed’ bond yield, but the fact that their assets are stored in USD which is likely going to remain stronger than the INR over the next few years if a historical track record is looked upon. This is a saga that will play out in other emerging market nations too as financial institutions chase ‘secure’ profits.

5 is a Dangerous Number

So not only does the Fed face a problem regarding an interest rate hike that will not solve inflation problems caused by a war that is effecting prices because there is a fear of supply logistics, but there could be a knock-on effect regarding debt. U.S 10-Y Treasury yields near and above 5% is a clear warning side that investors are uncomfortable, this no mere speculative gain achieved by bond vigilantes.

Another point, if the Fed were to raise interest rates today, it could in theory cause greater demand for U.S Treasuries from abroad and thus lower the Treasury yields for the moment – thus making the argument for a higher interest rate more dignified for those who want to raise rates. However, if the Fed were to say no to interest rate increases for now and point to a belief the U.S conflict with Iran is going to conclude sooner rather than later and said the U.S economy faces distress because of the higher fuels costs alone, this could also solve confidence problems.

U.S debt stands above 40 USD trillion, lower yields are a desire, but lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers are wanted too. So what will the Fed do today………..drumroll please…………the Fed will raise interest rates – making a mistake. And will show it fears a long-term risk scenario between Iran and the U.S and problems for Saudi Arabia. The USD will see plenty of volatility. Confidence will not be shown by the Federal Reserve today and this will be problematic.

Stage presence from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is going to be extremely important today. He has failed in his previous two FOMC Press Conferences to look confident while speaking and answering questions. His speech at Jackson Hole in late August also proved lackluster.

And this is where is gets more dangerous for Warsh and the U.S White House, because of President Trump’s ability to change his tactics quickly – there is a lack of confidence among investors who are trying to gauge their outlooks for the mid-term and beyond.

Kevin Warsh will find it difficult to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Many folks will walk away disgruntled if an interest rate is introduced and no clear guideline is mentioned regarding what is next regarding other potential rate hikes – or a plan to actually lower the Federal Funds Rate. The U.S economy while strong could easily be sent into a recession with an interest rate hike and sustained higher WTI Crude Oil costs.

Behavioral sentiment is going to remain on a toxic tightrope unless confidence is delivered. While individual perceptions about what should be done are important, understanding the mindset of the U.S Federal Reserve is crucial. Eliminating our own personal beliefs and bias from trading decisions and acting on what realities may be demonstrated are vital to profit.

Iran’s Last Stand or a Humbled Saudi Arabia?

September 15, 2026

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Assets Commodities Economy Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Investing Ira Slomowitz Risk Management Uncategorized World

Either bin-Salman or the Islamic Republic will Survive

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 15th of September via The Angry Demagogue.

The Houthis have not only pushed back and regained ground lost in the Saudi offensive against them in Yemen, they have taken Saudi backed ground and are moving forward. They seem to be moving at will and are now in total control of the Bab al Mandab Straits and are looking to surround and then capture the port of Aden. According to Or ben Yehezkel of the Telegram site 301 Ha’Olam Ha’aravi, which consists of a group who are fluent in Arabic and Farsi, the Houthis are moving quickly and if they take the port of Aden, the main port of Saudi backed Yemen, they will organize, along with the Shiite militia’s in Iraq to invade Saudi Arabia.

Although they don’t have an air force, the Houthis have managed to gain ground against an air force with over 220 advanced fighters, 8 AWACS for air coordination and over 20 refueling aircraft. With their missiles and drones, the Houthis have managed to cause severe damage to Saudi Air Force bases and have all but neutralized Saudi air superiority.

Iran’s Last Stand or a Humbled Saudi Arabia?

It seems that the Islamic Republic has given up on getting Israel out of Lebanon and saving Hezbollah and instead is concentrating on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States with the goal of forcing the U.S out of the region. If they do in fact take Aden, the Houthis can go up the coast to Mecca and Madinah and meet Iraqi-Shiite militias there as they attack across northern Saudi Arabia. This will force the Saudis to defend what is as important for them, reputation-wise, as oil – and that is the holy cities of Mecca and Madinah. For the Houthis the coastal route is do-able. From Iraq it is a 20 hour drive from Iraq to Mecca (a bit shorter to Madinah) through harsh dessert terrain – although there are paved roads. Alternatively, the Iraqi militias could attack in the Gulf area (either going through or avoiding Kuwait) while the Houthis rush to Mecca, forcing the Saudis to split forces.

For the U.S, ground attacks in Saudi Arabia proper, putting American bases and troops at risk, will force them to intervene so as to save U.S bases as well as Saudi honor. It is not that the Iranian Islamists think they can take over Saudi Arabia, only that they can embarrass it into submission. In the Arab and Moslem world, pride is more important than fact and a near defeat might embarrass the ibn-Saud kingdom enough to rattle its self confidence. The Mecca Accords between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have shown their impotence as neither the Turkish nor the Pakistani Air Forces have been seen over the Saudi desert (although it seems that bin-Salman asked CENTCOM to ask Israel to help them).

However, the real goal of the Houthi-Iranian offensive is to force the United States out of the Gulf. No matter what people are saying the blockade and other economic measures are having a strong effect on Iran and its regime. This does not mean it is close to falling, but they obviously feel a need to change the conversation and to use outside pressure to bring some relief to the country and eventually to remove the American “menace”.

An article in The Free Press (whose headline is more optimistic than the article itself) correctly states that the Houthis are trying to lessen their dependence on Iran, but that does not mean that most of the orders are not still coming from Iran. It is not the Houthi’s themselves that are a threat but the Houthis as an Iranian proxy that is the danger. A Houthi semi-state in western Yemen is a thorn in the side of the world, but it is very different than an Iranian controlled western Yemen. Currently, there is no reason to believe that Iran is not controlling events in Yemen just like they controlled events in Lebanon. Israel’s “ceasefire offensive” against Hezbollah, taking their major command centers and all but pushing them out of their strongholds in southern Lebanese Shiite villages has shaken the Iranian leadership and weakened their hold on events in the Middle East. They only have Yemen, the Persian Gulf itself (the Straits of Hormuz) and some Iraqi militias left to take the pressure off them.

Alternatively, if the Houthis attack fails, could this be Iran’s last stand? A defeat at the hands of the Saudis, coming right after the Hezbollah defeat at the hands of Israel will leave Iran with only one pressure point – one that the U.S Navy has blocked. While they are causing some discomfort in the West via rising oil prices, they are causing more discomfort in their ally China and even more in their own country.

Last week we indicated that there are four things that need to happen in order to put in place the possibility, let’s upgrade that to the probability of regime change. The Islamic Republic understands this better than the Western press. The first is nearly complete and that is the destruction of Hezbollah. The second is the American blockade and economic D-day which are in full force but need time to work. The third is the defeat of the Houthis and the last one is an intensive U.S (or U.S and Israeli) bombing campaign combined, possibly, with the taking of Persian Gulf islands.

If the Saudi’s lose, this will endanger the entire U.S plan and may even bring down the bin-Salman rule in Saudi Arabia as he can be replaced by more conservative Princes if his plans fail and he embarrasses the Kingdom in front of the Moslem world. This is a best-case scenario for the suffocating Islamic Republic and could lead to their resurgence in the region.

Iran knows this well and the Houthi-Saudi war will either lead to the downfall of the Islamic Republic or a very humbled and maybe changed Saudi kingdom. A fight to a standstill with the Houthis remaining an Iranian proxy means that the other three legs of the plan – the destruction of Hezbollah, economic D-day and U.S bombing effort will need to be pursued quickly and violently. As Israel has painfully learned, fighting to a standstill just gives your terrorist enemies time to regroup. Without a Houthi defeat we will be where we are today and the U.S goal of ridding the region of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be much more difficult. Much more is at stake in the Houthi-Saudi war than people believe.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

Follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Can An Economic D-Day Win the War?

September 9, 2026

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Assets Behavioral Sentiment Economy Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Financial Institutions Ira Slomowitz Risk Management Uncategorized World

Only Along with Military Might in Order to Avoid Stalemate

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 9th of September via The Angry Demagogue.

The main tool that the West has used against tyrants has been that of economic sanctions since they have not been willing to commit military assets to the fight. This has been going on with Iran for decades and with Russia in various forms for over ten years and yet both countries have managed to launch wars (on their own or via proxies) during times of minimum and maximum sanctions.

The signing of the MoU by the Trump administration was seen as a naïve undertaking at best and a surrender at worst. But like the Palestinians who never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity, so too have their friends the Iranian Islamists. Rather than “taking the win” as President Biden would have advised, the Islamist Republic decided to double down on their treachery, hitting shipping in the Straits of Hormuz as well as American allies in the Gulf and Jordan, with impunity. The tit for tat response that the U.S has been using, copying Israel’s pre-October 7 failures in Gaza and Lebanon, has brought no real gains.

Can An Economic D-Day Win the War?

President Trump’s turn to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his economic D-Day against Iran is supposed to change the nature of economic warfare in general and the war against Iran in particular. If the goal is getting them back to the negotiating table then there is a good chance it will work. However, if one thinks that once at the table the negotiations will go differently than it did before, one would be foolish. If the goal is, as it ought to be, to bring down the regime, that is a more difficult end.

However, we are seeing a few things taking place that are accompanying this economic D-Day. It is not clear if these actions are part of the U.S plan to bring down the Islamic Republic or if they are just coincidences but if the latter, they are the luckiest coincidences in U.S foreign policy in quite some time.

Hezbollah and the Houthis are two of the three main Iranian proxies left, the third being in Iraq. And while Hamas still lives, their military capabilities have been degraded enough as to make them a minor protector of Iran and an even less minor projector of Iranian power. People tend to downplay the importance of the “proxies” to the Islamic regime and what their collapse could mean to it. For nearly half a century the Islamic Republic has been concentrating on extending its power and prestige in the Middle East (and globally) at the expense of its own people. These proxies are a core part of the Islamic Republic. Hezbollah and the Houthis for example mean more to the Islamic Republic than do most of their own citizens. If their citizens revolt, they just kill them, if their proxies fall or leave their orbit, the regime itself is in danger

In Iraq the U.S government has been working diligently with the Iraqi government ot neutralize the Shiite militias. But the Iraqi militias are more a thorn in the side than a real power. The Saudis, however, have begun a major offensive against the Houthis and are closing in on the Houthi capital of Sanaa. True enough the Houthis are fighting back and hitting Saudi oil infrastructure (one wonders why Turkey and Pakistan are not living up to their obligations in the “Mecca Accords” – but that is for another day) but it seems that Saudi Arabia is finally taking the Iranian threat seriously and hundreds of Houthi fighters have surrendered to Saudi and other Sunni forces. There were reports that the U.S turned down a Saudi request to fight the Houthis, but that doesn’t mean they have not coordinated the fighting together. The civil war has been going on in Yemen since the early 1960’s or before and while this probably won’t end the war it might force whomever is the Shiite replacement for the Houthis to concentrate on internal fighting and to leave the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits untouched. This is a key Saudi goal as it needs multiple routes for its oil exports.

Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

In Lebanon, Israel has captured the main forward base of Hezbollah in the tunnels under the Al-Tahar ridge. This is a major tunnel system, cut into the mountains that contains full command and control centers as well as rocket and drone launching capabilities hidden from the Israeli air force. The Al-Tahar complex was unknown to Israel until rather recently with Reuters claiming that Iranian officers were or still are held up inside the tunnel network. Israel has followed this up with attacks on the town of Nabatiyeh which the al-Tahir ridge overlooks as well as other Shiite towns that are centers of Hezbollah activity. Nabatiyeh is not just another Shiite village but the largest city in the eastern part of southern Lebanon and serves as the administrative center of the area. It is, of course, a Hezbollah stronghold. While the MoU gave Iran a veto over what would happen in Lebanon, its disintegration has given Israel free reign to finally take care of the Hezbollah presence in the country.

Towns Along Lebanon and Israel Border

In a more surprising move, taking a page from Trump’s own playbook, Pakistan has issued exorbitant tariffs on commercial traffic going to and from Iran threatening a land route to China and what was a safe way to bring in needed goods from abroad.

According to reports, Iran has just two months of fuel left in the country. The currency has tumbled even more and, much like Weimar Germany, stores are changing their prices multiple times a day in order to keep up with the inflation.

Pakistan and Iranian Border Areas

Does this all mean that Iran can fall in the coming months? The people who could lead such a regime change are those who witnessed the January massacre of over 40,000 of their fellow citizens and who continue to witness daily executions of the protesters the regime has jailed. It is difficult to predict these things but hard to believe that they will put themselves in a position for another massacre so soon after the last one and to succeed. On the other hand, the economy is in such a shambles that at some point the army might get involved if they are getting paid after the Revolutionary Guards.

One thing we need to take into consideration is if the Gulf States will now be stricter in their dealings with Iran. The UAE, as much as it is one of the more Western oriented of the Gulf States still has been allowing Iranian funds to flow through that country (as it seems, it allows Russian funds to flow) and Qatar is always playing a double game. Will at least the UAE shut down all Iranian pipelines. As for Europe, they seem to be falling in behind the American effort and China is getting impatient with having to pay market prices for their oil. None of this means that in practice they will follow Scott Bessent’s D-Day, but at least in public they are supportive.

Much as the Israeli hostages were only released after massive military pressure led to Hamas seeing them as liabilities rather than assets, the military destruction of the main Iranian proxies, a total blockade of Iran itself combined with real sanctions that denies the IRGC the money and material it needs to continue its internal and external terror could lead to the regime’s downfall. Or, it could require more American military power – either an occupation of Kharg and other Iranian islands or, more likely, some massive B2 strikes on key IRGC and nuclear installations.

There are two other forces that might interdict an American victory in the Gulf and that is the Turkey-Qatar alliance and Saudi cowardice. Erdogan’s Turkey has no interest in a collapse of an already weakened Iran as they look to be hegemon over the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean and need some residual threat from Iran to Israel. If they press the United States to stop the Israeli destruction of Hezbollah or if they further their military presence in Syria, forcing Israel’s hand, America will lose. Qatar too, needs friction so that its money (it has nothing else) is still of value.

A non-Islamist Iran could surprise the world and grow into a regional economic, industrial and military power that, in alliance with the UAE and Israel would challenge the Turkish-Qatari-Moslem Brotherhood alliance. Tukey-Qatar need a weakened Iran.

These are the four steps that could lead to an American victory:

– The destruction of Iran’s economy via the economic D-Day
– The destruction of the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
– The end of the Houthis regime in Yemen.
– A renewed American air campaign against key IRGC targets.

Taking any of these four off the table or taking advice from Turkey or Qatar will lead either to an American defeat or, in a best case scenario, a stalemate.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

Follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Iran: What Losing Looks Like

March 23, 2026

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Assets Exclusive Content Featured Highlights Ira Slomowitz Risk Management World

Who is Losing Militarily, Technologically, Economically and Diplomatically?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 20th of March via The Angry Demagogue.

It is difficult for many to admit that the US and Israel are winning the war and that conquering a country the size of France, Germany, UK, Netherlands and Spain together with only air power does not take a day or two. However, by any objective (meaning without thinking that all Trump/Bibi/Hegseth, etc. bad) standard, the allied coalition is systematically destroying the military industrial complex that is the Islamic Republic of Iran (what it is not is a State dedicated to the good of its citizens). People forget that the American air campaign in Gulf War 1 was 38 days. It started on January 17, 1991 and only by February 24 did the generals feel that they could invade and take Kuwait.

The air campaign then poured over 88,000 tons of bombs in approximately 100,000 sorties. And this to capture a country a bit smaller than New Jersey.

As we finish the third week of this war we can assess who is winning and who is not. We have spent this past week discussing what it means to be victorious in this war (The Economy and The Military) and to state unequivocally that victory is the moral choice no matter the price of oil. That being said, the price of oil is rising and hit $120 a barrel before dropping. Economists see $138 barrel as the price that could send the US into a recession. So far, the US economy is holding firm. The S&P 500 closed on the Friday before the war at 6740 and yesterday’s close was 6624 – a drop of about 1.7% – not the panic that the front pages would have us think. The Eurostoxx 50 is actually up slightly from 5719 to 5736.

The Federal Reserve did not cut rates, signifying that they don’t need to prop up the economy and risk inflation as they do when they fear a collapse.

The economies of the West seem strong in spite of (or because of?) the war which should end with the cessation of the 47 year of Islamic Republic price premium. The Russian and Chinese economies meanwhile will be under stress for quite some time. While China will have to wonder about its oil supply, Russia understands that $100 a barrel oil will encourage increased US production (and now Russian and Chinese free Venezuelan?) that will hurt them when oil prices go back to normal levels. As we will now discuss, Chinese and Russian arms deals might start to go south, too.

Technologically, this war is a further test of American and Israeli technology and abilities, and they have passed with flying colors. The American and Israeli missile and drone defense systems are outperforming what they did less than a year ago in the “12 Day War” and the U.S Navy is untouchable. The Gulf States are also fairing better than expected although due to the short distance and the lack of experience, they are getting hit more than Israel is. To top it off, the Russians have forced Ukraine to become global leaders in the defense against drones and there are now 2,000 Ukrainian anti-drone personnel in the Gulf States.

But is the air-forces that are performing so well, that one would think that the Iranians did not invest in the most advanced Russian and Chinese air-defense systems over the past few years. The S-300 or S-400 advanced Russian systems or the Chinese HQ-9B long range surface to air missile and the JY-26 (alleged) anti-stealth radar, are performing so poorly, the Chinese themselves must be hoping it is a personnel issue and not a technological one.

Speaking of personnel, this war has shown that pilot skill still matters. It is the bravery, daring and success of American and Israeli aviators that matters as much as the technology. Just look at the Gulf countries who fear sending their combined force of around 400 F-15’s and French Rafale fighters into the air.

The Russian air force (and army) has already shown it is lacking the skill to compete with even poorly trained Ukrainian pilots, let alone with American or Israeli aviators. The Chinese too, must be wondering if their air force, made up of untested, pilots from one-child families will brave the fire coming from Taiwan as well as the American and Japanese navies in order to complete their missions.

Technology is great – especially if it works as advertised, but if the “operators” are inferior, even great technology will not be up to par. No one yet has been able to match American and Israeli personnel, in the air or on the ground.

Which brings us to that annoying wild-card, the Straits of Hormuz. While the Iranians have not succeeded in closing the straits they are scaring off shipping to an extent that it is a concern not only for the present but for the future. By using this tool, by playing this card, if you will, Iran has forced the United States to make the security of the Straits a war aim. The success of the U.S operation in the Straits will turn it from an international waterway under the veto power of Iran to a U.S controlled and protected gateway from the Persian Gulf. In times of war with China the U.S Navy will be able to turn it into a Chinese energy chokepoint. If the U.S was not there prior to the Iranian gamble, they will be there now.

As for pure military, Iran is losing as no one has lost before. The combined forces have destroyed nearly all their production capabilities for military hardware, have destroyed air defenses, command and control centers, leadership on multiple levels and most of their navy. We don’t need much more to declare Iran the military loser.

Diplomatically, things are not as they appear. While no western European countries support the fighting or even the aims of the war, the Gulf States, India and others are quietly forming an unofficial coalition against regional terror. As Europe tries to figure out how to pacify its growing radical Moslem population, other counties, including Moslem ones, are finally realizing that terror against Israel and Jews slowly but surely works its way back to them. For fanatics, no one is religiously or ideologically pure enough, even if you are descended from Mohammed.

Western Europe is a clear diplomatic loser in this war as President Trump is the last person who will forgive their teachery and allow them to share in the spoils of this war. Their role in the Middle East and in global politics generally is done. Their ability to use their victory in WWI to determine and influence events around the world is finished even though they have now backtracked and agreed to help on the Straits of Hormuz issue.

Regarding China, they have now abandoned one of their main allies and the country they have depended on to provide them not only oil but a strong military presence in the Middle East. The war was clearly coming and just as the United States sent carrier groups to protect its and its allies’ interests, so too, could have China. They could have sent naval vessels to help defend Iran – or at least deter the United States but did not, either because they don’t have the ability to do it or they don’t have the will. In either case, China is a diplomatic loser in this war.

Russia is also losing the diplomatic game as Ukraine becomes closer to the Gulf states and Israel and America are neutering their best technology. Regarding Israel’s recent sinking of Iranian naval ships in the Caspian Sea, reports are coming out that they were laden with Russian military aid. Russia, like China, has not raised a finger to help their main Mideast ally, making it hard for them to claim the loyalty of other purported allies.

And Israel? Israel seems always to be a diplomatic loser, war or peace. However, this war has strengthened the bonds between the American and Israeli military in ways that no one could have foreseen just months ago. The cooperation and trust between the two militaries is beyond anything America has had since its partnership with the UK in WWII. Western Europe’s continued irrelevance on the global scene has lightened the pain the Israeli public feels for western Europe’s betrayal.

India on the other hand has tightened its ties with Israel as Prime Minister Modi’s pre-war trip to the country showed. As for the Gulf Countries, the UAE seems to be interested in strengthening its Israeli ties while Qatar does not. While Qatar is angry at Iran for their attacks it is not clear that this will lead them to abandon their goals of Islamicizing the West and ridding the world of Israel. Saudi Arabia is hard to call. We don’t expect any diplomatic breakthroughs especially if the Islamic Republic actually falls.

Israel we can say is neither a winner nor a loser, yet, in the diplomatic arena – which, considering the beating Israel gets on the world stage, might be called a win but most certainly is not a loss.

The United States can hardly be considered a diplomatic loser in this war as they are the only major power to be able to come to the aid of allies when U.S interests are also involved. The tough talk out of western Europe is a very small thorn in the side of the United States.

To summarize, Iran is the big loser of course as their support comes from a neutered Russia, an apathetic China and a global progressive left that has no power to influence, let alone determine events. Iran’s main allies have been proven ineffectual at best, uninterested at worst and their “brand” has been diminished no matter what else happens in the war.

The only part of the war that the United States and Israel can be said to be losing is the news and propaganda (but I repeat myself) war.

For the things that count though, one thing is certain – the United States and Israel are not the losers.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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U.S National Security: USD Reserve Currency Importance

December 24, 2025

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment AMT Markets Assets Featured Highlights

U.S National Security: USD Reserve Currency Importance

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 23rd of December via The Angry Demagogue.

We would like to start going through the U.S administration’s National Security Strategy released last month. There is a lot in there – much of it the same as in past administrations and much of it different. The tone of course is full Trump and while the introductory parts try to make it into a revolutionary document it does in fact build upon much of what has been American foreign policy for decades. One thing it most certainly gets right is that American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War has not found its compass. From a unitary world to one dependent upon global organizations, from a sharing of goals with western Europe to a pivot to Asia, from the war on terror and the middle east to Russia-Ukraine, the United States has struggled to find its way in the post-Cold War world.

We however will concentrate today on one aspect of the strategy, the third bullet in part III – “What Are America’s Available Means to Get What We Want?”. The third bullet point speaks of America having “The world’s leading financial system and capital markets, including the Dollar’s global reserve currency status” – a point that no one with any knowledge of global capital markets can not accept. The end of the bullet point – the Dollar’s global reserve currency status – is the most important because it underscores America’s leadership and essentially allows the United States of America to finance its military and its welfare state. The U.S Dollar as the “reserve currency” means that nearly all the world’s goods are quoted and therefore sold in Dollars.

Why is that important to the United States? Because the U.S government depends on its ability to issue Treasury bonds and bills at will – something no other government can do. It can do this because for another country to buy oil or copper or titanium or corn or soybeans from a country that is not their own– they need access to Dollars. Saudi Arabia and the other gulf states quote the price of oil in U.S Dollars and demand payment in U.S Dollars. The Saudis can deposit those Dollars in American banks or in what is called Eurodollar deposits in foreign banks (there are some 13 trillion Dollars in Eurodollar accounts globally). The Eurodollar accounts are essentially promises by the bank to give U.S Dollars to the holder when he makes a withdrawal. This strengthens the U.S capital markets and allows investors to have better and more investment choices. It is not only America’s often superior companies that bring profits to 401k’s and pension funds but the liquidity and vastness of America’s capital markets that can list domestic and foreign corporations. The reserve currency leading to the advanced capital markets allows the world – and America – to do this.

The U.S Treasury market is so liquid because every country needs Dollars in order to trade. They need to have enough dollar reserves since no one actually wants their own currency. In Israel, for example, local gas companies cannot buy oil with Israeli Shekels, since what will Azerbaijan, for example, do with them? There are only so many products that Israel can sell them. They need Dollars so that they are free to buy other commodities or other products.

The U.S Dollar as a reserve currency also is a break on inflation since the price of oil and other commodities is always in U.S Dollars. A weak or strong U.S Dollar influences the inflation rate in non-USD countries. A weak Israeli Shekel, South African Rand or Chinese Yuan does not influence the price of gasoline in the United States.

In short – as the Trump Administration understands well, the dollar as a reserve currency is a luxury the U.S cannot give up. The lack of the USD as a reserve currency could cause the Dollar to collapse and along with it the price of U.S Treasuries. As UST prices drop, their yields will rise and the cost of financing the U.S government will make interest payments on debt to rise well beyond its already absurd figure of over 4% of GDP – while debt itself is 120% of GDP. The U.S government currently pays over $1 trillion in debt service (interest payments on its bonds and bills). By contrast, the U.S defense budget for 2024 was $836 billion (about 3.3% of GDP).

We need to ask ourselves what can challenge the USD as the reserve currency and what could happen that would encourage the world to change? While the E.U had dreams of making the Euro an alternative reserve currency, the lack of growth in the E.U’s economy and population have put that dream to rest. The only other country that could theoretically replace the United States as the global economic go to country could be China. While in the long run, China’s lack of openness would probably mean that the Yuan would not last long as the reserve currency, that does not mean that they couldn’t jolt the global economy just enough to force it to use the Yuan to buy oil and other commodities.

China is already cornering the market on rare earth minerals and it making inroads in Africa where it mines all sorts of commodities from gold to copper to platinum and so many others (Africa has about 30% of global mineral reserves). That in itself is not enough to rock the global markets and cause a change in how the world does business.

Oil though, is that one thing that could allow China to challenge the USD as the reserve currency, even if it just presents the Yuan as an alternative.

How could that happen?

A Chinese takeover of Taiwan, by whatever means it uses would give the Chinese Communist Party control not only of the South China Sea but also allow its noisier and inferior (to America’s) submarine fleet to enter the Pacific and patrol it freely. The Chinese Navy, with a base on the “other” side of Taiwan would give it control of the north-south sea lanes that Japan and South Korea are dependent upon. Essentially, Chinese control of Taiwan would put Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines at the mercy of the Chinese Navy. China could blockade these countries but that would be an act of war and then involve the navies of those countries and possibly the United States. It would affect the global economy negatively but it would not cause a change in world’s reserve currency. But, what if China works out a deal with Saudi Arabia to quote and sell their oil in Yuan (or the Chinese Petro-Yuan it wants to create) and then tells these countries, especially industrial powerhouses and energy poor Japan and South Korea that it will allow the passage of oil as long as they purchase the oil in Yuan?

Russia is already trying to get India to pay it for its oil in Yuan, to some success. Adding economies the size of Japan and South Korea would mean that any country that wants to buy oil could buy it in Yuan instead of Dollars. Once in Yuan, these countries would need to use the Yuan to buy Chinese products, deposit cash there and buy Chinese treasury bills. If China were to combine that with demands that all chips made in Taiwan also be sold in Yuan, the U.S Dollar would suddenly and forcefully no longer be the only reserve currency in the world.

Obviously, the way to stop this from happening is by stating outright that the United States will not tolerate a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. It is true, that the Strategy claims that the US “will also maintain our longstanding declaratory policy on Taiwan, meaning that the United States does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait” but in practice the administration has criticized Japan’s tough talk on China instead of leaving it be. A strong silence on Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks on China would have served the purpose of keeping the status quo more than telling her to tone down her rhetoric. There is a strong “no intervention ever” strain in the country and the President must make the case that that is not an option if the United States wants to maintain its leadership position, way of life and general prosperity.

In short, the threat to the Dollar as the reserve currency heads right through Taiwan. For those who think that the investment the U.S makes in keeping the Dollar where it is, is too expensive, just think of going on vacation and having the change to Yuan before you leave the country, wondering how much to change because of currency fluctuation and how much fun it is to return with hundreds of dollars in banknotes that you can’t use. Imagine your credit card bill on such travels and wondering how you went 15% over budget but didn’t get anything extra for it. Now imagine the national economy working that way.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Related article of interest by Ben Ezra https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/india-insider-why-russian-oil-should-be-treated-skeptically

Impolite Opinion: BRICS and a Western Loss of Power Part 2

November 3, 2024

by Robert Petrucci with No Comment Central Banks Commodities Featured Highlights

Impolite Opinion: BRICS and a Western Loss of Power Part 2

BRICS Future Members and Potential Strangleholds

The West is moving too slowly as if stuck in an abyss of indifference, this while BRICS adds members, including the prospects of Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and others to participate. The ability of BRICS to work alone via trade agreements and increase collective strength is growing.

Some BRICS nations have expressed their perspectives the West is an antagonist that practices unfair trade and environmental colonialism. The West is accused of attaining important resources from the developing world, destroying the habitats of these nations as minerals are mined, food is grown and harvested, and energy is sought and produced that create degraded ecosystems. The West is cited for keeping their landscapes pristine, while using the ‘cheap’ land and labor of the underprivileged to procure needs. And as the West has increased their reliance on commodities attained from afar, they have become vulnerable to the threat of a potential stranglehold on resources controlled by BRICS like rare metals.

BRICS will certainly attain additional nations via the FOMO adage. The enticement of membership and ability to cease underdog statuses and stop being mere supply conduits to richer nations is appealing. Mexico is said to be considering potential BRICS inclusion, and we are probably not far away from a European State asking to join.

The Power of Commodity Prices and BRICS Influence

The West must engage and rethink associations and to make sure countries are not treated as lower tier. If nations like Mexico join the BRICS dynamic, and newly created cartels strengthen economic practices and policies of the organization, the prospects could eventually lead to the creation of a new fiat currency. For the moment BRICS has wisely pushed this goal to the side, but the idea of a unified currency is certainly being discussed openly. An increase of BRICS economic power derived from robust trade would tempt financial institutions to consider start buying bonds if offered as investments.

The West must ask what the dangers are if a needed commodity supply is controlled by a BRICS cartel that could suddenly initiate boycotts and trade limitations upon those BRICS does not agree. Food, energy, and mineral scarcity if controlled by nations not seen as allies of the West would be dangerous. Economic power within BRICS would certainly turn into geopolitical strength. The ability of developing nations to have a collective economic voice and create supply dynamics within commodities would ignite hazards for the West.

BRICS, U.S Government and USD Reserve Currency Status

While the West worries about domestic issues such as creating a politically correct happy tent for everyone, the larger powers within BRICS are engaged in the big picture which might be uglier but may carry more importance long-term. Because a lot of BRICS political power comes from more authoritarian stances, they are able to plan policy not only with five, but ten and twenty year outlooks. Western leadership needs to be willing to engage in a complex world and make sure nations that are not seen as natural bedfellows are treated with respect and brought under an economic umbrella that allows them to engage on equal terms.

The long-term future of the USD as a reserve currency is coming under increasing doubt, the trading of the currency in Forex is slowly and surely losing its footing via incremental percentage changes that point to deterioration. A void in solid leadership in the U.S and unrestrained spending are making the tasks harder for the Treasury and Federal Reserve to protect the strength of the USD. Fiscal deficits are one thing, 35.6 trillion USD of debt is another matter. How long can the U.S carnival sell tickets and expect people to be entertained in a magic act that prints money and backs it with increasingly vulnerable bonds? The U.S needs to change its fiscal policies efficiently.

There are ways of looking at this per different perspectives, but if BRICS does achieve its economic aim of creating more equitable trading coalitions, it could sustain alliances which the West may not be comfortable and actually be susceptible. The phrase that money talks and nonsense walks should be kept in mind regarding BRICS. The promise of fair trade among its members is important, but the ability to be unified politically and create economic transparency is important too. Many of the nations who are members of BRICS have not practiced solid economic policies and are still looked upon as suspicious fiscally.

Gold and a Decoupling of the USD

Importantly, we must begin to ask if financial institutions have figured a lot of what is mentioned above out and started to position themselves. Financial institutions and nations may be starting to look for a balance between the world’s reserve currency which is the USD, and the ambition stated by China’s Xi Jinping at the latest BRICS summit to create an alternative financial system.

If this alternative financial system includes BRICS as one of its foundations, and is based on organized cartels which use commodities as a backbone a new paradigm will be introduced. And if BRICS evolves and has the means to introduce a new currency along the lines of the EUR with a coalition of associated nations, the West will be faced with competitive questions. This new currency – let’s calls it the BRICS Unit (as reported by others), if it can trade calmly and with significant volume, and also offer innovation like a digital currency would change the balance of global power. The potential lose of status for the USD as the world’s reserve currency would weaken the U.S immeasurably. We have seen this show before via the GBP and the Britain.

A battle between a legacy reserve currency and an innovative upstart which wants to become a reserve currency could cause mayhem – potentially leading to a winner or all currencies losing confidence. Folks thinking ahead of the curve may already be putting money into gold because it is a historical store of value. Can the rise in gold seen the past year be quantified via not only a fear of inflation, speculation, and concerns about central banks, but also a reaction because of a looking glass into the future that does not trust the outlook of the USD? It is just a theory, but what if safe haven buying of gold signals a decoupling is taking place with the USD as its status weakens?

It should be added that the lack of a declared currency by BRICS as of yet, shows a level of political maturity and understanding of the current economic landscape. BRICS has shown the ability to take a long view and not act impulsively. A coalescing of commodity strength via gold, crude oil and other resources with organized cartels and solidified trading would give the BRICS Unit more credence upon its birth, but patience will be needed. And, like the EUR, the BRICS Unit could suffer from internal political strife, and particularly if the West wakes up and takes action to engage nations who are sitting on the economic fence and offers beneficial trading agreements.

The Western method of nonchalance that all will be well is naive. However, BRICS still face hurdles. Grievances could prevail in BRICS and cause it to falter and perish, some member nations which have had difficult relationships will need to put their distrust aside. An example of potential problems could come from Egypt and Ethiopia that have a long history with each other, both have massive populations and centuries of political intrigue when dealing with each other. However, BRICS represents the thinking of realpolitik vs. the winsome misguided aspirations of some Western nations with leaders who have their collective heads in the sand. The West needs to advocate collective interests, which includes freedom, solid enterprise agreements and large consumer markets. The West needs to focus on the competition emerging with BRICS. Pretending the danger doesn’t exist amounts to negligence and a potential lose of economic power the West cannot afford.

If you have not read Part 1, here is the link:

https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/impolite-opinion-brics-long-term-plans-implications-part-1

Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

July 8, 2024

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Featured Highlights Investing

Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 4th of July with an addendum on the 5th via The Angry Demagogue.

Blinken Gets Pushed to the Back of the Line

While the Biden-Blinken Administration is obsessing on “non-escalation” and telling allies they are on their own if they attack an Axis member that attacks the ally, or that they will help the ally “defend itself” but not take the offensive (how you do that is a mystery) the Axis itself is establishing itself all over the Middle East.

Let’s start with a statement, quoted in Israel, by Alexander Dugin who is Putin’s ideological advisor advising the Russian leadership to arm Hezbollah and the Houthis in their fight against Israel. Earlier this week, Newsweek reported that Russia is considering arming the Houthis with cruise missiles. These could be used against Israel and against Saudi Arabia – or maybe U.S bases in the area. As Russia seeks to cement its ties with anti-Western countries and forces around the world, it seems to be partnering with Iran so as to increase the potency of Iran’s proxies and press their goal to rid the region of U.S forces. Toward this goal Iran and even Russia are manufacturing tanks together in Iran.

The Houthis themselves, under with the guidance of Iran, are attempting to expand their sea blockade from Bab al Mandab straits connecting the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea, to the east African coast by cooperating with the Sunni and al-Qaeda based Somali terrorist group al-Shabaab al-Mujahadin. Reports in Israel quoting U.S intelligence sources claim that the two groups are cooperating and that the Houthis will supply weapons to al-Shabaab in order to interdict global shipping off the Somali coast and in order to harass U.S forces stationed in the area.

The anti-U.S alliance seem to be able to cross religious and ideological boundaries in ways that western intelligence thought impossible. That is because western (and Israeli) intelligence mis-categorize all of these groups and countries. The issue is not who is Sunni and who is Shiite, who is Russian Orthodox and who is Communist, but rather, who is for keeping the international status-quo and who’s for, to use a phrase meant for different times – a “new global order”.

The Houthis, feeling confident in having defeated the U.S Navy in the Red Sea are now threatening Saudi Arabia for saying no to a Russian negotiated deal (under the auspices of the U.N and opposed by the U.S) which would bring an end to the embargo against the Houthis including their export of oil as well as Saudi financing of the Houthi civil government in the part of Yemen they occupy (they learned from Hamas and Qatar/PA/Israel that you really can have your enemies pay your salaries) amongst other goodies. They blame Saudi Arabia for allowing U.S jets to bomb Houthi sites from airbases inside Saudi Arabia – with no U.S carriers in the Red Sea that certainly could be true. In their threat they included videos of their bombing of Saudi oil fields in 2019 just in case the Saudis forgot.

The Houthis, with their experience stopping shipping, have, according to a JCPA report been the point men for Iran’s plan to extend the sea embargo against Israel to the Mediterranean. This would not only hurt Israeli shipping but also the ability of its Air Force to operate properly. We wrote recently about Iran’s possible plans for Cyprus, including Hezbollah’s open threat to them, and this fits nicely with their plan to ring Israel with fire on all sides. We already know that Russian intelligence vessels are in the Mediterranean tracking Israeli submarines and that the Russian naval base in Syria is a safe haven for Iranian shipping.

Just this week an Iranian vessel filled with arms for Hezbollah anchored in the Syrian port of Latakia (why did Israel not sink this??!!) which is 100kms (60 miles) north of the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria – was it escorted in by the Russian Navy? Is that why?

The U.S now has three main allies in the Middle East – Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE, and with the exception that the UAE administration has a habit of criticizing and threatening these allies.

It boggles the mind that Blinken does not see what the entire world sees – a so far successful effort rid the Middle East of the U.S and its allies. For Israel that means annihilation and for Saudi Arabia it means probably surrender to the Iranians while its royal family is allowed to enjoy their money (best case scenario). For the UAE it means it will be used even more than it currently is as an Axis financial center. For the U.S it means a withdrawal, not to the Western Hemisphere – but to the northern half of it.

The Middle East is slowly becoming the playground of the Axis and it is just a matter of time before the West won’t be able to get a turn on the swings.

Addendum: A short follow regarding the Houthi ultimatum to Saudi Arabia

The Houthi’s gave the Saudis 72 hours to respond and respond they did. The Saudis have agreed to all the demands of the Houthis as they realized that the United States will not defend them from attack and are unwilling or unable to deter, let alone to destroy the Houthis offensive capabilities.

Amongst the Houthi demands that the Saudis agreed to are:

1. The re-opening of the airport in Sana’a, Yemen. They will allow direct flights to bring pilgrims to Mecca, flights to Jordan and soon flights to everywhere. This will allow the Houthis to be re-armed by the Iranians via air transport.

2. Payment, by Saudi Arabia of Houthi government employees.

3. Allowing the Houthis to sell oil – ending the embargo.

This is a plan, as stated, sponsored by Russia and not opposed by the United States. It is a further move by the Axis into pushing the U.S out of the region. It is not clear if part of this agreement is for the Saudis to disallow U.S use of the Prince Sultan Ari Base for attacks on the Houthis.

As an aside, the UAE has suggested that the U.S setup a base in Somaliland – a breakaway country in the horn of Africa on the coast of the Gulf of Aden and bordered by Djibouti and Ethiopia (and of course Somalia). This seems to be an attempt to rid the Gulf States of the responsibility to host U.S forces that attack Iranian proxies. Could Biden’s “you are on your own if you attack Iran” (back in April after the 300 projectile attack on Israel) have influenced their decision?

Russia and Iran are on the rise in the region as the U.S administration preaches de-escalation and appeasement.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

April 15, 2024

by Ira Slomowitz with No Comment Behavioral Sentiment Featured Highlights Risk Analysis

Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

The Israel-Iran War is soon to enter its 7th month even though last night was the first face to face confrontation between the two countries.

There was much less panic in the air on the “Israeli street” than one would expect after Iranian threats over the last week. I was clearly wrong in my assessment that Iran would not want to start something big with Israel and risk having a chunk of their strategic power degraded but it is hard predicting what fanatics will do. The question is if the utter failure of the attack will bring Iran shame in the Muslim world or if the fact that they sent missiles and drones will be counted as a “victory” even if no damage was done to Israel. Or it could be that Iran was counting on Biden-Blinken holding back Israel from responding and sure enough, NBC is reporting exactly that:

President Joe Biden has privately expressed concern that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict, according to three people familiar with his comments.

Last night at about 8:15pm IDF Homefront Command announced that all schools and all educational activity would be cancelled until further notice, angering parents everywhere. A few minutes later they announced that 10’s or hundreds of drones were launched from Iran and on their way to Israel. The news reported that it would take 8-10 hours to arrive, sparking this to make its round on the Whatsapp groups in this very interconnected country:

Google maps also cooperated:

Friends and family in Jerusalem and surrounding areas were awakened by alarms and scurried to the bomb shelters, children in their arms. There were alarms also in the West Bank, the Golan Heights and the Northern Negev dessert. Apparently, the main targets were two air force bases. One was hit by one missile and minor damage was done and the other was untouched. One 7 year old Bedouin girl was critically injured from pieces of a rocket that was shot down. The headline ought to read: Shiite Missile Critically Injures 7 year old Sunni Girl.

The effectiveness of Israel’s air defense system seems to have surprised even the Israeli Air Force and special thanks has to be given to President Ronald Reagan for ignoring the comics and media (but I repeat myself) and many scientists and engineers (the experts!) as they made fun of his Strategic Defense Initiative and called it “Star Wars” – claiming that it was something undo-able and dangerous even to talk about.

Then Senator Joe Biden, using his favorite word, “provoke”, is quoted in this 1985 NY Times article:

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, pressed hard for reassurance about whether the proposed defensive weapons might be fired by mistake, thus provoking the Soviet Union to launch a real attack.

The Biden foreign policy theory for the last 40 years or more is based on not “provoking” your enemy, no matter the cost and appeasing your enemy at any cost.

Special thanks to the U.S armed forces who shot down numerous drones as did the U.K’s air force as well as Jordan’s. There might have been other Middle Eastern countries involved as there is an unofficial regional air defense system set up with Abraham Accord countries and others not part of the Accords. 100% of the suicide drones and 100% of the cruise missiles and 92% of the ballistic missiles were shot down by Israel’s layered “star wars” system.

If the IRG is honest with themselves, they will understand that they have been defeated. A combination of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were shot at Israel at once and no drones and no cruise missiles got through. Of the 110 ballistic missiles shot at Israel, 101 were intercepted and only one reached its target. Israeli defense firms closed higher in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange trading today. I imagine Iran’s potential clients are having second thoughts. China too, must be wondering about their own offensive and defensive systems.

So where does this leave us now?

The War Cabinet assigned to Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Gallant needs to decide on an Israeli response. I am not sure that Israel has the firepower to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites on its own and there is almost no chance we will see U.S B52’s involved.

So the most obvious target is probably off the table. It seems that the U.S Administration is pressuring Israel not to respond at all and to leave things as they are. This should not surprise anyone who has been awake for the last six months.

Israel and Iran have been at war for the last 6 months – one could say for the last two decades. This was clear to everyone except Biden-Blinken who could have shortened the war and the suffering by punishing Iran for their attacks on US sailors and soldiers. Instead, they appeased Iran and released $10 billion to them essentially letting Iran hit Israel with this money.

The Scroll is reporting that:

We are now waiting to see how Israel responds. Although an unnamed “senior Israeli official” has been quoted promising a “significant response” to the attacks, Iran appears to have pre-cleared the attacks with the United States via the Oman diplomatic backchannel. And according to Roi Kais of Israel’s Kan News, a U.S. official told Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya on Friday, “the United States will take part in the response to the Iranian response if Tehran escalates the situation inappropriately”—which means that the United States tacitly approved an appropriate level of Iranian escalation, such as, we don’t know, a “symbolic” drone-and-missile attack.

The United States has also, as Barack Ravid reported Friday, demanded to “have a say before decisions are made about any retaliation by Israel.”

If true, that is cynicism taken to the ‘Nth degree’. True enough, the United States needs to watch after its own national interests, but is it possible that the U.S government considers Iran its equal and Israel its vassal? Were Israel faced with a missile attack from China an argument could be made that U.S interests take precedence over Israel’s – but Iran? The Iranian economy is in shambles, the Rial is at record lows, its only economic lifeline comes from China, bankrupt Russia, the $10 billion Biden gave them and illegal activities. As Israel just showed– Iran’s vaunted missile force is worth less than advertised. We have not even spoken about the way it treats women and gays and how it treats opponents to its theocracy, how it spreads terror throughout the Middle East and Africa, how it helps Russia destroy Ukraine, how it is a key player in the global drug trade and money laundering.

We have also not spoken about its foothold in the Western hemisphere and its attempts to infiltrate the United States itself via the porous southern border.

Worst of all, if the Scroll story is correct, it shows how Biden-Blinken don’t understand what the office of the Presidency of the United States is. It is not just another head of state or head of government, but rather the President’s warnings ought always to be backed up with actions. Biden’s “Don’t Speech 2.0” was laughed at by Iran in public, for all to see. And the Biden-Blinken response is to tell Israel, “don’t”.

Ignoring Biden-Blinken for the moment, Israel must think deeply about its response. It is clear that any response will be followed by more of the same from Iran. Israel must think a few moves ahead and not just attack for the sake of attacking or it will be in the middle of yet another war of attrition. The end of the multiple rounds of attacks must leave Israel in better strategic shape than it is now and must leave Iran substantially weaker.

Whatever Israel decides to do, it must degrade Iran’s military capability by destroying its weapons and bases and killing as many IRG officers as possible. Israel should not bomb the power stations in Tehran or do other non-military strikes. Air force bases, missile silos and Iran’s navy should be targeted in such a way that degrades capabilities. They could start by sinking the Iranian spy ship that is helping the Houthis in the Red Sea.

Israelis seem to think that by “allowing” Iran to attack them it gives them many diplomatic credits, but we already know that these “credits” do not last long. Whatever Israel does, it ought not to play the “message” game. Its attacks ought to provide tactical advantages in the coming months and not just “warnings to Iran” and “messages to Hezbollah”.

But let’s not ignore Biden-Blinken for a moment. What if they decide to threaten Israel that if Israel retaliates the US will sit on their hands?

This would be the time for Israel to do a little threatening of itself. The worst thing for a sitting President running for re-election is a summer gasoline price spike. Israel could certainly threaten to destroy Iran’s oil facilities and help push the price of oil. High gallon gasoline prices this summer will lose Biden more votes than he can gain in Dearborn, Michigan. In exchange for leaving Iran untouched, Israel can demand a free hand in Gaza, including Rafah as well as in Lebanon.

Would that be worth letting Iran off the hook? It might. Iran was defeated in this battle, but it still believes it will win the war. Giving Israel free reign to destroy Hamas and then Hezbollah means that Iran will lose the war, too. Without Hezbollah, Iran will lose its most important asset in its overall goal of destroying Israel, chasing the US from the Middle East and establishing Shiite dominance in the region. It would turn October 7th into the day that Iran started on its road to defeat.

Israel needs to be opportunistic and aggressive in its dealings with its allies and its enemies. It has to let its allies know that it too is playing the long game and that it will not only hurt those who hurt it – as Netanyahu loves saying – but that it will destroy all who even try to harm it.

More importantly it needs to show its enemies with actions and not with words that threatening Israel means you will be destroyed.

The Biden-Blinken team must be told in no uncertain terms that Israel is not a vassal. The end result of this war cannot only be the destruction of Hamas, it must also be the destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regional power. By sending over nearly 60 tons of explosives to Israel, they have put themselves front and center.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

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