Pile-up is Not a Market Crash – Yet. What’s Two Trillion+ USD Losses Between Friends?
And just like that – once again – a sudden downturn turned into a momentous wave that kept coming in the broad markets yesterday. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 combined approximately for a monetary loss of around 2.6 to 2.9 trillion USD when factoring out the overlapping of companies in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. While some mathematicians may quibble about the quantification, traders do not care.
What investors and retail folks want to know is what they are supposed to do next. These two groups have completely different answers based on their strategies and timeframes.
The clues for an upcoming downturn have been apparent for awhile. Asian markets via the Kospi of South Korea and the Nikkei 225 have been getting hit repeatedly with losses in AI related companies. Chinese markets have produced ugly results also in AI tech sectors. A case can be made for India that it may become a safe haven in these fragile conditions because it does not have massive exposure in the AI sector.
But what will happen today in the U.S as investors and traders lineup and prepare for today’s price action? The Nasdaq 100 finished its Wall Street trading around 26,629.81 yesterday, and in early futures market action is around 26,844.00. However, just because the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are up early this morning via futures trading doesn’t mean the calm song will remain the same (apologies to Led Zeppelin), this when large U.S investors return for their last day of trading this week and take a look at what happened yesterday on Wall Street and today in Asia, and quantify the damages of the pile-up.
Nasdaq 100 Three Month Chart as of 6th November 2026
SpaceX Loses Orbit, MSTR Troubles Again…..and Tranquility in India
The loss of value in SpaceX has been noted by many, but not as many folks have pointed to Strategy’s (MicroStrategy’s – MSTR) lower trajectory as it has begun to suffer yet again. Bitcoin dropped yesterday and is below $76,000 as of this writing. MSTR finished yesterday near $129.30. SpaceX is near 123.62. I point these 3 assets out because risks remain hidden and not discussed, even though the hazards are known by many analysts who simply disregard facts like price to earnings. This is a bad signal for the overall marketplace as financial institutions try to make believe dangers are not real. Yes, I am criticizing financial institutions.
And returning back to the important question where should folks turn now? What will become safe? The answer probably isn’t within the stock markets unless a speculator is willing to gamble by trying to short (sell before buying) – and to do that experience and solid risk taking tactics are needed.
The VIX is above 28 again, retracing heights last seen in March and early April. The VIX (Cboe’s Volatility S&P 500 Index – for options) reached a height around the 35 vicinity in early March of this year. It did reach an apex around 60 on the 7th of April 2025 during President Trump’s early tariff rhetoric negotiations stance (this to show things could actually get worse regarding behavioral sentiment). If the VIX goes above 30 early today this could be a sign big players are bracing for further selloffs in the major stock indices.
The Nikkei 225 lost nearly -6% this morning, the KOSPI has also stumbled over -6%. Whether or not Asia is playing catch up to the U.S markets is not really important for U.S investors except to say before going into the weekend things are likely to get uglier on Wall Street. And again as a note, India’s Nifty 50 is actually up a little bit for the day – yes that is correct.
Nifty 50 Three Month Chart as of 6th November 2026
Looking For Excuses to Sell and Walk Away
The blame game was heard from the U.S White House yesterday, this as President Trump said the mid-term election results had scared investors and are going to make the funding of AI data centers more difficult. Some in the Democratic Party have said they will try to block the building of centers and questioned why the public has to pay for creating power plants. But AI investment vulnerability has been discussed for a year at least. Revenue questions versus expenditures and staggering debts have been a talking point consistently.
Narrative is always important regarding sentiment when trading and investing (they are two different things), and the narrative of a Democratic victory on the 3rd of November may have provided the excuse some investors were looking for to dump their AI portfolios and walk away from investments they no longer believe in. What is ‘believed’ is important, because it is often more important than truth in the world of assets – sentiment is often triggered by belief. Some may say algo trading as not afflicted by market psychology, programmed trading might claim to be emotionless, but algos are still coded by humans.
Do we believe President Trump when he speaks? Whether you are for him or against him doesn’t matter as a trader/investor, what is important is what actions he actually takes compared to what he says. This opens the door for commodity traders today. WTI Crude Oil and gold should be watched. Talk about Iran has not disappeared, saber-rattling is still going on. WTI Crude Oil has moved higher and is above $92.00 at this moment.
WTI was trading near $87.50 momentarily yesterday on good vibrations per suddenly peaceful outlooks, but those thoughts were tarnished late yesterday as Trump spoke about Iran again. Energy prices remain cautious. Gold is around $4,045. Both commodities are likely to face additionally volatile price action today.
If fears escalate on Wall Street, large players losing money in equity indices may look for speculative bets and a store of values via commodities. U.S yields via the 10 and 30-Year Treasuries remained calm yesterday, but should be watched today to see if they start to elevate again.
Before going into the weekend speculators may decide to sit today out if they do not have any active skin in the game, unless they are willing to wager in what may become brutally fast conditions. Investors who have to protect portfolios because of long-term exposures and have to answer questions from their clients will face a storm. Wall Street still needs to answer the question where true value lies.
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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums
AMT Top Ten Thoughts and Trepidations for the 22nd of March, 2026
AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Bits of Clarity for the 19th of April 2026
The Not So Coincidental World of Google and WTI Crude Oil