Viridian Commodity Intelligence 2021111a

AMT Commodities Corner: WTI Crude Oil and Coffee Arabica Speculative Prospects

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Sentiment and Outlooks are King in WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil has seen a solid path lower in the past week of trading. In the wake of the U.S mid-term election results some large players have clearly established a positive outlook regarding their perceived scenarios for the Iranian war and the potential implications for improved secure supply. President Trump has confirmed publicly that he believes Iran and the U.S have had better discussions about a possible resolution to end the conflict. 

However, doubters still remain anxious, because as President Trump has clearly demonstrated his viewpoints and stances can change dramatically and without much prior notice, often causing market whiplash for speculators and investors. Energy supply from the Middle East remains a delicate endeavor.

Viridian Commodity Intelligence 2021111a

Viridian Commodity Intelligence Momentum – Drivers vs Price Data as of 11th November 2026

Fundamental Price Drivers vs. Human Instinct in WTI Crude Oil

The Viridian Commodity Intelligence momentum driver vs. price graph is showing the potential of upwards moves in WTI Crude Oil as of this writing. Retail traders need to remember sentiment for the moment remains king, and it is a skittish king – one prone to the Middle East saga. The price of WTI Crude Oil did touch a low of nearly $84.400 during yesterday’s price action. The slight move higher can be treated as a normal intraday activity when taking into consideration orders via large players in the marketplace. Trying to get a firm grasp on short-term price action remains difficult at best for retail traders.

There is something to be clearly said for improved outlooks. President Trump might find taking action in the Middle East more difficult within the current political reality of Washington D.C and may want to act sooner rather than later. Because when the Democratic Party led Congress arrives in early January, President Trump will find some of his power eroding and perhaps feel influenced by a desire to create legacy – even among those who dislike him. 

Some people (including traders) might be more inclined to be optimistic about their outlooks because of human nature and instincts which often create wishful thinking for hard to predict outcomes, but we should remember the price of WTI Crude Oil remains within the a rather expensive price realm because doubts remain substantial. Thus, producing the higher sticky terrain regarding current price and its speculative playground.

WTI CrudeOil 20261111

WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 11th November 2026

Where is WTI Crude Oil Pricing Going?

Supply of WTI via Oklahoma’s production may be large and U.S producers may be drilling with significant success, but caution about the Middle East still lurks. Earlier this week a Houthi missile hit Saudi Arabia’s Aramco building in Riyadh. While it has been treated largely as a ‘nothing to see event’ (swept under the carpet by many media outlets too), the hit on the famed Saudi building highlights the sudden dangers that still exists and threaten to ignite.

Saudi Arabia has done almost everything it can to try and limit an escalation of fighting in Yemen, but nearby – the rhetoric between the U.S and Iran remains saber-rattling terrain. Perhaps this observation should be taken in the light that this is how Middle East negotiations and diplomacy often work. Pointed accusations, passionate speeches are normal – it is true, so it is up to large players involved in the WTI Crude Oil market to decide on their current sentiment which creates fast conditions.

While the price action from the past week has certainly shown a selloff predominate, quick reversals and higher intraday are still a significant threat. However, from a mid-term perspective, looking for price action in WTI Crude Oil to move lower appears to be logical and may produce further bets on lower prices and act as a catalyst for wagering. And no doubt this could be my own biased optimistic rose colored glasses opinion.

Lower Prices in Coffee Arabica and the Influence of Narrative on Sentiment

Coffee Arabica continues to face downwards pressure, the price of the commodity as of this writing is near 266.75. Plenty of explanations can be heard regarding Coffee Arabica’s downturn in recent trading. For instance, the USD/BRL closed at 5.5800 yesterday and continues to traverse high water (simmering coffee) marks in the wake of nervousness created by Brazil’s election results and ramifications for its financial markets, but also as USD centric price action is stubborn.

Before the Brazilian election the USD/BRL was near 5.0500. While plenty of narrative has centered on the potential that a Forex discount has emerged in the Coffee market because of the cheaper Brazilian Real, let’s please remember before the election that supply via solid crops was known to be good in Brazil. Also, it needs to be pointed out that Coffee Arabica was near it current prices (and actually below these depths from late May until the middle of June this year) before fear mongering about a questionable harvest due to strong rains in Brazil emerged during the later days of June – and was eventually proven wrong.

Coffee 20261111

Coffee Arabica One Year Chart as of 11th November 2026

What if the Weather Forecasters are Wrong?

Now there is talk about the potential of El Nino effects on Brazil and the crops to be grown, but for now this remains nervous chatter. Weather forecasts have been known to have proven incorrect before. And please note, there is a lot of supply coming from elsewhere nowadays, including other parts of South America, and some parts of Asia and Africa. We are not about to run out of Coffee folks. Current prices are approaching important support levels, and this is after a year in which Coffee Arabica has been sliding back to a known historical price range, and is still above values seen before the bull market hit the commodity from October 2023 until October 2025. Apex prices were challenging the $425.00 ratio in September and October of 2025.

Coffee Arabica is a fast and often supercharged commodity that some retail traders like to wager on as they try to ride the momentum created by big players. Tactical use of ordering is needed, also accompanied by a solid amount of cash in a trading account in order to safely navigate intraday violence which often is demonstrated. If Coffee Arabica continues to sustain prices below $270.00 near-term, June’s early lows that saw the $250.00 ratio challenged would not be surprising to see emerge again. Risk management is needed by retail traders however, this as they attempt to swim with the large predatory players in the marketplace.

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Nasdaq100 20261106

Market Mishmash: Caution and Mayhem Becoming Actionable Fears?

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Pile-up is Not a Market Crash – Yet. What’s Two Trillion+ USD Losses Between Friends?

And just like that – once again – a sudden downturn turned into a momentous wave that kept coming in the broad markets yesterday. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 combined approximately for a monetary loss of 2.6 to 2.9 trillion USD when factoring out the overlapping of companies in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. While some mathematicians may quibble about the quantification, traders do not care.

What investors and retail folks want to know is what they are supposed to do next. These two groups have completely different answers based on their strategies and timeframes.

The clues for an upcoming downturn have been apparent for awhile. Asian markets via the Kospi of South Korea and the Nikkei 225 have been getting hit repeatedly with losses in AI related companies. Chinese markets have produced ugly results also in AI tech. A case can be made for India that it may become a safe haven in these fragile conditions because it does not have massive exposure in the AI sector.

But what will happen in the U.S as investors and traders lineup and prepare for today’s price action? The Nasdaq 100 finished its Wall Street trading around 26,629.81 yesterday, and in early futures market action is around 26,844.00. However, just because the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are up early this morning via futures trading doesn’t mean the calm song will remain the same (apologies to Led Zeppelin), this when large U.S investors return for their last day of trading this week – and take a look at what happened yesterday on Wall Street and today in Asia, and quantify the damages of the pile-up.

Nasdaq100 20261106

Nasdaq 100 Three Month Chart as of 6th November 2026

SpaceX Loses Orbit, MSTR Troubles Again…..and Tranquility in India

The loss of value in SpaceX has been noted by many, but not as many folks have pointed to Strategy’s (MicroStrategy’s – MSTR) lower trajectory as it has begun to suffer yet again. Bitcoin dropped yesterday and is below $76,000 as of this writing. MSTR finished yesterday near $129.30. SpaceX is near 123.62. I point these 3 assets out because risks remain hidden and not discussed, even though the hazards are known by many analysts who simply disregard facts like price to earnings ratios. This is a bad signal for the overall marketplace as financial institutions try to make believe dangers are not real. Yes, I am criticizing financial institutions.

Let’s return back to the important questions where should folks turn now and what will become safe near-term? The answers probably aren’t within the stock markets, unless a speculator is willing to gamble by trying to short (sell before buying) – and to do that experience and solid risk taking tactics are needed. 

The VIX is above 28 again, retracing heights last seen in March and early April. The VIX (Cboe’s Volatility S&P 500 Index – for options) reached a height around the 35 vicinity in early March of this year. It did reach an apex around 60 on the 7th of April 2025 during President Trump’s early tariff rhetoric negotiations stance (this to show things could actually get worse regarding behavioral sentiment). If the VIX goes above 30 early today this could be a sign big players are bracing for further selloffs in the major stock indices.

The Nikkei 225 lost nearly -6% this morning, the KOSPI has also stumbled over -6%. Whether or not Asia is playing catch up to the U.S markets is not really important for U.S investors, except to say before going into the weekend things are likely to get uglier on Wall Street. And again as a note, India’s Nifty 50 is actually up a little bit for the day – yes that is correc

Nifty 50 20261106

Nifty 50 Three Month Chart as of 6th November 2026

Looking For Excuses to Sell and Walk Away 

The blame game was heard from the U.S White House yesterday, this as President Trump said the mid-term election results had scared investors and are going to make the funding of AI data centers more difficult. Some in the Democratic Party have said they will try to block the building of centers and have questioned why the public has to pay for creating power plants. But AI investment vulnerability has been discussed for a year at least. Revenue questions versus expenditures and staggering debts have been a talking point consistently.

Narrative is always important regarding sentiment when trading and investing (they are two different things), and the narrative of a Democratic victory on the 3rd of November may have provided the excuse some investors were looking for to dump their AI portfolios and walk away from investments they no longer believe in. What is ‘believed’ is important, because it is often more important than truth in the world of assets – sentiment is often triggered by belief. Some may say algo trading as not afflicted by market psychology, programmed trading might claim to be emotionless, but algos are still coded by humans.

Do we believe President Trump when he speaks? Whether you are for him or against him doesn’t matter as a trader/investor, what is important is what actions he actually takes compared to what he says. This opens the door for commodity traders today. WTI Crude Oil and gold should be watched. Talk about Iran has not disappeared, saber-rattling is still going on. WTI Crude Oil has moved higher and is above $92.00 at this moment.

WTI was trading near $87.50 momentarily yesterday on good vibrations per suddenly peaceful outlooks, but those thoughts were tarnished late yesterday as Trump spoke about Iran again. Energy prices remain cautious. Gold is around $4,045. Both commodities are likely to face additionally volatile price action today.

If fears escalate on Wall Street, large players losing money in equity indices may look for speculative bets and a store of values via commodities. U.S yields via the 10 and 30-Year Treasuries remained calm yesterday, but should be watched today to see if they start to elevate again.

Before going into the weekend speculators may decide to sit on the sidelines today if they do not have any active skin in the game, unless they are willing to wager in what may become brutally fast conditions. Investors who have to protect portfolios because of long-term exposures and have to answer questions from their clients will face a storm. Wall Street still needs to answer the question where true value lies. 

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WTI Crude Oil 20261104

AMT Commodities Corner: Can Blue Wave Change Momentum of Black Gold?

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesForexIndiaMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

President Trump's Reaction to Election Defeat Matters for WTI Crude Oil

A blue Democratic Party wave has hit the U.S in the past day and early this morning as votes are still being counted and clearly show a definitive victory for the Democrats. The manner in which President Trump reacts to the election defeat will influence the price of WTI Crude Oil greatly, because his handling of the Iranian situation will now be confronted by new political obstacles. The current price of WTI Crude Oil cash is near $97.00 as of this writing.

In the past few days WTI Crude has come off of fearful highs which challenged values above $106.00 last Friday on the 30th of October. In early trading this morning the price of WTI Crude Oil cash has lowered slightly, but has begun to show slight signs of consolidation again. Some speculators may be eyeing a renewed testing ground around the $96.00 ratio with some lower momentum being seen. However, before speculators rush into a wave of additional selling they should note that WTI Crude Oil remains within a cautiously priced realm as large players clearly remain worried about potential impacts if the Iranian situation worsens.

WTI Crude Oil 20261104

WTI Crude Oil Price and OECD Commercial Inventories via Viridian Commodity Intelligence on the 4th November 2026

And here is where things will get tricky in the near-term for retail traders as they try to weigh their perceptions and anticipate the reaction of the bigger forces in the energy market that will move values. The outcome of the U.S mid-term elections last night may cause some large players in WTI Crude Oil to feel more optimistic about a possibly quicker conclusion to the Iranian war which has been staunchly in the headlines since late February. 

However, key factors remain unanswered regarding consequences, and short-term notions must be compared to mid-term timetables. What will President Trump’s immediate reaction rhetorically be regarding ‘his’ election defeat and what he now views as viable as he presses forth against Iran? How will energy demand and inventories be influenced in the coming weeks? For instance the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) commercial inventories reporting via Viridian Commodities Intelligence shows supply remains low among member nations. Meaning that a perceived escalation to come in Iran could create more headwinds and sustain negative outlooks. Suggesting fears which still exist about the Iranian situation may be priced into WTI Crude Oil because supply for the OECD nations remains vulnerable.  

WTI CrudeOil 20261104a

WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 4th November 2026

Prices today and tomorrow should be watched carefully. A psychological test for large players in WTI Crude Oil will be factored by President Trump’s reactions to the strong Republican loss of power in the U.S House of Representatives and Senate. President Trump is still the Commander in Chief of the U.S military and his loss of Congressional backing may not stop him from escalating military conflict with Iran near-term. 

Will President Trump sound more pragmatic and put his ego to the side and offer the Democrats an olive branch? Or will the President use the time between now and the 3rd of January – when the new Congress will be sworn in constitutionally to take advantage of his lame-duck window which will start to be felt in an increasingly harsh manner. Note that the 3rd of January 2027 falls on a Sunday, so the official swearing in date for Congress may be changed by a few days depending on what agreements are made.

President Trump is on the clock and in essence the Iranian war is too. The price of WTI Crude Oil which has been a swift speculative playground since February of this year is set for more dynamic price action. Short and near-term traders who want to ride the momentum of larger players in WTI Crude Oil should expect plenty of velocity the remainder of this week. 

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US Dollar Index 20261103

Elections and Nervous Global Markets

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomyFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

U.S Mid-Term Elections, Anxious Investors, Risks and Potential Collisions

U.S mid-term elections will be held today. Wall Street has turned in anxious results recently and USD centric price action remains relatively strong. South Africa holds municipal elections tomorrow on the 4th of November with implications for the USD/ZAR.

The VIX index (Volatility S&P 500 Options) results have nudged upwards incrementally in recent trading. Still far below the March and early April highs, the index nevertheless has shown increased nervousness among investors. 

US Dollar Index 20261103

U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 3rd of November 2026

Prevailing sentiment regarding the U.S elections appears to indicate the Congress may become divided per its leadership. A potential Democratic party win of the House of Representatives and a slim majority held by the Republican in the U.S Senate would not be a surprising outcome. A divided Congress could set the table for a rise in angry rhetorical political stances from the U.S and a confrontational White House led by President Trump.

No matter the outcome presenting itself tomorrow, Wall Street should be watched for reactions. Global investors will continue to be also largely swayed by Middle East storylines and supply of energy and its effect on inflation. The U.S Federal Reserve remains in the thoughts of all investors regarding its interest rate policy. A general lack of clarity still persists, along with worries about over-inflated equity values shadowing companies with exposure to AI and the costs of infrastructure via analysts narrative.

In South Africa, municipal elections will be held on Wednesday. The outcome of the Johannesburg mayoral race should be watched by investors who have interest in the nation. Since the national elections held on the 29th of May 2024, which produced a government coalition led by the ANC sharing some power with the Democratic Alliance and other parties – the South African Rand has performed better – gaining strength against the USD. 

If tomorrow’s Johannesburg voting results produce an optimistic result showing that political power is still shifting towards more transparency and shared power this could inject another dose of positive force into the ZAR. However, until the municipal voting results our known sometime on Thursday, the USD/ZAR should be treated cautiously by day traders. And speculators should note South African banks will be largely shuttered on Wednesday limiting USD/ZAR volume.

Other important features for traders coming up will be the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Summary on Thursday and expected hike of 0.25 basis points to the Official Bank Rate. The GBP/USD is near 1.34100 as of this writing.

On Friday the U.S will release its Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, but this data may not have a gigantic effect on sentiment taking into consideration that today’s Congressional Elections will amplify existing sentiment the remainder of this week depending on the outcomes.

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Brazilian Real 20261023

USD/BRL: Anticipating Brazilian Election Results and a Liberal Party Victory

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessCentral BanksEconomyEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Flavio Bolsonaro Appears Set to Become the Next President of Brazil

Brazil will conduct the second round of its elections this coming Sunday on the 25th of October. Flavio Bolsonaro is predicted to win the election handily. No second place presidential candidate has ever comeback after the initial vote and beaten the first place finisher in the 2nd round of the direct elections which was implemented in 1989. 

Financial institutions appear to favor a Liberal Party victory over Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party. If Flavio Bolsonaro wins the vote as expected on Sunday he will have strong coalition powers in the National Congress as a whole, including the upper house Federal Senate with conservative members that is expected to include 45 to 50 approval votes depending on the issue out of 81 collective seats. The USD/BRL closed yesterday’s trading near the 5.0525 vicinity.

Brazilian Real 20261023

USD/BRL One Year Chart as of 23 October 2026

Brazilian Real’s Performance Has Been Solid Since December 2024

The USD/BRL is traversing lower ratios that were challenged momentarily in early August, late July and saw sustained lower action in May of this year with depths touching the 4.9000 area briefly. The Central Bank of Brazil has leadership via Lula da Silva’s choice of Gabriel Galipolo as the Governor who will serve until the 31st of December 2028.

Financial institutions have shown faith in the Brazilian Central Bank as it maintained interest rates and did not succumb to the wishes of many from the Workers Party who had lobbied for a lowering of borrowing costs as inflation ran high. The USD/BRL has performed well since touching highs around 6.2500 in December of 2024. While the USD/BRL has been correlating with the broad Forex market to a degree, reaching the 5.2500 realm on the 1st of October, the Brazilian Real has shown more fortitude than the EUR, GBP and has done better that the South African Rand against the USD the past handful of weeks.

Geo-Political Implications of a Flavio Bolsonaro Victory

Optimism in Brazilian financial institutions regarding a government victory by Flavio Bolsonaro who is seen as pro-business (and certainly is not a socialist) is viewed as a positive by global investors too. The geo-political relationship between Brazil and other nations will be captivating if Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s presidential race. Brazil maintains an enormous trading relationship with China and its membership in BRICS is considered very important. These political relationships should be watched closely.

Brazil’s relationship with South Africa may also be tested quickly as Flavio Bolsonaro imposes a more conservative approach regarding his worldview. Bolsonaro is certainly an ally of President Trump. Brazil’s relationship with the majority of conservative leadership in South America will be dynamic and worth giving attention as it improves. The USD/BRL via behavioral sentiment could find itself testing additional lower values in the coming months. A free enterprise surge from Brazil will create a more vibrant economic landscape in South America, provided corruption is fought and transparency is delivered.

Cautious Global Markets as Optimism Engulfs Brazil

Cautious global investment certainly continues to create problems in equity markets. However, the Ibovespa Index of Brazil has performed exceptionally well the past year, even though it suffered a slight downturn yesterday it remains within sight of all-time highs. The results on the Ibovespa and the USD/BRL considering the predicted election outcome this Sunday will be important for retail traders to monitor.

Speculators need to keep in mind a Liberal Party victory has been factored into the value of both trading assets already, meaning some profit taking could transpire early until additional positive waves of enthusiasm engulf the marketplace…….and then eventually sees euphoria erode back into realistic outlooks and correlations with global mechanisms again.

Paying For Celebrations Via Profit Taking

Traders of the USD/BRL may want to pursue the currency pair in a speculative manner today and early next week, but they need to remain tactical and not allow overly ambitious targets guide their wishful thinking. Bias needs to be eliminated and USD/BRL traders should not indulge in leveraged positions which could get out of hand quickly if sudden sentiment shifts strike via larger players and financial institutions, particularly if they cash out winning positions (this to pay for some victory celebrations should the mood strike). The USD/BRL appears to be in a solid position to continue move lower via positive outlooks for business enterprise in Brazil, but traders should remain realistic and not step out ahead of the parade unless they have deep pockets and can demonstrate patience.

A Gap Higher Amidst Over-Exuberant Retail Trader Ambitions

Early Tuesday’s price action in the USD/BRL did see the 5.0000 realm come into sight, but an upwards wave developed and Thursday’s opening did produce a gap higher which tested values near 5.0575 momentarily. Yes, conditions appear ripe for exuberance to help the Brazilian Real become stronger against the USD, but retail traders need to practice risk management at all times.

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AMT Top 10

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Insights, Mischief and Concerns for the 22nd of September

by with No Comment AMT Top TenArtificial IntelligenceCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomyEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingMajor Global Equity IndicesRisk ManagementUncategorizedWorld

Trump's Saga, Market Conditions, Saudi Arabia, Investor Outlooks and More

10. Naima: John Coltrane’s classic composition from the late 1950’s should be listened to intently with eyes closed as his harmony and provocative ability to create a devotional hymn enchants. What do you hear? Instead of playing music for mere mortals, it sounds as if Coltrane is orchestrating for gods – take a moment to listen.

9. Upwards: Bitcoin, cough, cough is again making some look foolish as it traverses higher. As of this moment, BTC/USD is at $86,000 and making doubters – among them some AMT staff – shake their heads in disbelief (disdain). Michael Saylor’s Strategy/MicroStrategy entities have MSTR share prices around $168.00 per yesterday’s close. This is occurring as AI concerns because of its ability to challenge cybersecurity and coding of crypto remains relevant. Additionally, higher energy costs are causing miners to wince, running out of folks who are willing to speculate in the domain remains a danger (because of Ponzi suspicions), notions about government supervision getting stronger instead of becoming more lax, quantum technology, and known rogue nations keeping Bitcoin and other cryptos vibrant to hide illicit money shadow. But this is nothing to worry about it appears for Bitcoin believers and influencers.

AMT Top 10

AMT Top 10 Miscellaneous Insights, Mischief and Concerns for the 22nd of September

8. Unheralded Victories: While many were looking away purposely and likely do not want to give President Trump applause, Denmark extended the U.S administration not only an olive branch regarding Greenland, but perhaps a signal that they have acquiesced by expanding U.S security jurisdiction. From a foreign policy perspective the Trump administration has changed the Venezuela leadership, secured greater military capabilities in Greenland, and remains focused on bringing Cuba’s leadership to their knees as the island nation suffers from extended electrical outages.

7. Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffet stepped away from his job as Chairman on the 18th of September and named his son as successor. Share values via BRK.A were above $800,000 in April and March of 2025. This August BRK was again over $800,000. Yesterday’s close was near $752,000. Warren Buffet’s brand and era is coming to a close and the new leadership will be hard pressed to fill the confidence void. Berkshire Hathaway investors however, are some of the most loyal constituents in the marketplace. They will want to see a steady ship run by Howard Buffet and CEO Greg Abel.

6. New School: What will the Fed do now that they have raised the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a basis point on the 16th of September? Kevin Warsh has proven he is not exactly in the coat pocket of President Trump. After the Fed’s unanimous vote last week to raise rates, what happens on the 28th of October? Via Forex it appears financial institutions have braced their outlooks for another hike sometime later this year, but are they correct? Old theories via central banking to attack inflation with higher interest rates is a standard practice, but the escalating costs via higher energy prices has nothing to do with a sudden emergence of pent up demand, it is a supply shock that has caused more expensive WTI Crude Oil – not one driven by an increase in desire. Will Warsh prove he is new-school and proactively fight for lower interest rates sooner rather than later? Higher interest rates will not stop the Middle East saga from remaining an economic influence and spectacle.

5. Bank of Japan: Like the Fed the BoJ is not in a particularly safe space. After following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve last week, the interest rate hike of 0.25% by the BoJ was viewed as a rather lackluster move from financial institutions and Forex players who seemingly wanted an increase of at least 0.50%. The USD/JPY remains a volatile speculative wager and is above 156.850 – give or take the tantrums and punishment inflicted from the FX market. The Bank of Japan has only had 3+ decades of questionable policy, here’s to another decade worth of doubts and consistent critical observations from outsiders.

4. Hear No Trump: The U.S President is entering a dangerous political phase for his legacy and risks losing his grip on power. Mid-term elections are rapidly drawing closer and the White House could lose its Republican led majority of the House. The President is starting to be viewed as a lame-duck by some observers. Trump who is known for his ability to change his rhetorical stances and policies quickly is still at the epi-center of global affairs. The question is if other policy makers and nations are listening. The Republican party is entering a dangerous phase and its leadership is likely going to endure a rather loud fight for control as factions take sides. The Vance and Rubio camps are likely to grow louder and divergent.

3. Saudi Arabia: Ask a friend to point to Yemen on a map, can they do this correctly? The Houthis of Yemen and Saudi Arabia may feel like a world away from known geographies, but what is happening in the wake of attacks on port areas and islands in the Red Sea (and even Riyadh) is significant. Crude Oil production and shipping problems suffered because of pipeline vulnerability is a vital concern for energy supply to Europe and Asia. While large investors may feel like they have digested the dangers, Iran and its proxies – including the Houthis may have additional theater to present. WTI Crude Oil has come down in price since yesterday but remains volatile and is around $93.00. Will optimistic banter continue?

2. FOMO: The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 and their global counterparts are within their higher apexes as traders and financial institutions keep placing their money into these known asset spheres. The bond market is still producing high yields and folks are seemingly letting their casino like bets ride on a wheel they hope propels solid momentum for as long as possible. But alas, number 1, should make people pause:

1. Bandages: Perhaps our circle of contacts is too small, but behavioral sentiment is not exactly robust regarding positive market outlooks via mid-term queries. Concerns about equity indices, bond yields, inflation (because of sticky energy costs) and the general malaise that is hovering over the broad markets is not appealing. It feels as if sutures are keeping wounds from becoming infected in a haphazard manner. Investors are cautious and appear ready for the Band-Aid to be ripped off. The late ’90s and early 2000s dot.com bubble bursting, the 2006 bank and housing whispers and rumors flotilla which turned into the catastrophe of 2007-08 feel oddly similar. Perhaps it is a good time for accumulation if nothing seriously bad takes place in the markets. Circumstances feel as if a wave of blind market powers may harm those who seek never ending profits with a tsunami of losses. Perhaps it is a good time to be a speculator.

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10Y Treasury Yields 20260916

Fed Decision: Two Sides of a Dangerous Coin

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomyEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexIndiaInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

The Fed Should Not Raise Rates But It Will

What and who you believe will play an important part in today’s market for speculators. While investors who are looking at long-term prisms can comfortably wait on the decision from the Fed’s FOMC regarding interest rates later today, retail traders who are trying to profit on near-term wagers via momentum and are seeking to gain an advantage by knowing which way the wind is blowing have a difficult task ahead. Via results in the Forex market it appears many financial institutions have braced already for an interest rate hike of a quarter basis point.

However, what if the financial institutions and many analysts are wrong? What if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other FOMC voting members believe the White House and think that inflation will erode as price pressures ease when there is a remedy to the Iranian conflict. That would mean that they could debate with other Fed officials for no interest rate hike. Because if the Fed were to raise interest rates later today, thus making borrowing costlier for businesses and consumers – and potentially putting more strain on the U.S debt payments because of increasing Treasury yields, it would still not solve the higher costs of energy. (There is an argument below which negates this possible yield problem and one that is likely to be heard from some economists).

10Y Treasury Yields 20260916

U.S 10-Y Treasury Yields Five Year Chart as of 16th September 2026

Yes, there is demand for fuel globally, but the demand for energy is not going to decrease because the U.S Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. In fact, it could make costs more expensive for businesses who are likely burning money via increased credit lines already created, this to transact their currently higher costs to guarantee effective supply of fuel to fund their logistics and manufacturing which they had not planned for while making their initial 2026 budget estimates prior to the Iranian war. In other words, a higher Federal Funds Rate will equate into higher costs for businesses.

$100.00+ WTI Crude Oil is Not A Friend

Per the other side of the coin, WTI Crude Oil has turned more expensive and volatile since March of this year. For a moment it looked like relief would be delivered via the supposed MoU between Iran and the U.S. WTI Crude Oil went below $80.00 periodically when optimism was peaked by White House rhetoric and calm waters in the Hormuz Strait were reported. Hopes for a return to WTI Crude Oil below $70.00 were viewed as legitimate.

However, the tranquility sought has vanished in the past couple of weeks and has grown more anxious as Saudi Arabia has become an important actor in the Middle East conflict as the Houthis and Iraqi militias cause havoc for the Saudi Arabian government. The price of WTI Crude Oil is now stubbornly above $100.00 and rumors about how Saudi Arabia is dealing with its own military confrontation and the way it is able to supply its own Crude Oil are confounding.

Which brings us back to the initial question regarding the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh, who will the Fed Chair listen to? Does he and other voting members of the FOMC believe there will be a quick fix to what has become stubbornly higher costs for WTI Crude Oil which is creating inflation? Or do they now have to objectively consider what may have been perceived as a temporary blip of elevated expenditures for the U.S economy as a potentially long-term problem? If Warsh and his cohorts believe the Iranian situation is going to find a remedy within the next four to five months, they should NOT raise interest rates today.

Again, while higher fuels costs are problematic, raising interest rates is not going to lower demand for WTI Crude Oil which is the chief instigator of higher inflation globally. It is not a question of who believes President Trump’s tantrums, it is a question concerning viability of a real end game to the Iranian situation. Plenty of Crude Oil exists, its production capabilities are strong, it is Middle East supply to Asia, Europe and Africa that is causing a problem and the higher cash and futures pricing for WTI Crude Oil. Thus, the lynchpin remains Iran. If their government capitulates and bends a knee, opening up the Hormuz Strait and stops plying its influence on the Houthis of Yemen and other militia groups in Iraq that are now causing problems for Saudi Arabia the price of WTI Crude Oil will drop dramatically.

If the situation is not rectified and the price of WTI Crude Oil remains elevated and Saudi Arabia doesn’t handle their confrontation which is turning increasingly militaristic, then it will not solve a higher interest rate initiative from the U.S Federal Reserve – unless the Fed is merely looking to decrease Treasury yields by increasing global demand for the bonds – thus hoping to increase their desirability.

Old School vs. New School 

Today’s decision from the Fed comes down to old text books and failed central bank policies versus new economic considerations. An interest rate hike from the Fed may actually make circumstance more difficult for governments around the world trying to balance their own books. 

For instance, higher yields on U.S debt are causing problems in India where some investors are shedding Indian Rupee assets and seeking the high yielding U.S Treasuries not only because of a ‘guaranteed’ bond yield, but the fact that their assets are stored in USD which is likely going to remain stronger than the INR over the next few years if a historical track record is looked upon. This is a saga that will play out in other emerging market nations too as financial institutions chase ‘secure’ profits.

5 is a Dangerous Number

So not only does the Fed face a problem regarding an interest rate hike that will not solve inflation problems caused by a war that is effecting prices because there is a fear of supply logistics, but there could be a knock-on effect regarding debt. U.S 10-Y Treasury yields near and above 5% is a clear warning side that investors are uncomfortable, this no mere speculative gain achieved by bond vigilantes. 

Another point, if the Fed were to raise interest rates today, it could in theory cause greater demand for U.S Treasuries from abroad and thus lower the Treasury yields for the moment – thus making the argument for a higher interest rate more dignified for those who want to raise rates. However, if the Fed were to say no to interest rate increases for now and point to a belief the U.S conflict with Iran is going to conclude sooner rather than later and said the U.S economy faces distress because of the higher fuels costs alone, this could also solve confidence problems.

U.S debt stands above 40 USD trillion, lower yields are a desire, but lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers are wanted too. So what will the Fed do today………..drumroll please…………the Fed will raise interest rates – making a mistake. And will show it fears a long-term risk scenario between Iran and the U.S and problems for Saudi Arabia. The USD will see plenty of volatility. Confidence will not be shown by the Federal Reserve today and this will be problematic.

Stage presence from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is going to be extremely important today. He has failed in his previous two FOMC Press Conferences to look confident while speaking and answering questions. His speech at Jackson Hole in late August also proved lackluster.

And this is where is gets more dangerous for Warsh and the U.S White House, because of President Trump’s ability to change his tactics quickly – there is a lack of confidence among investors who are trying to gauge their outlooks for the mid-term and beyond.

Kevin Warsh will find it difficult to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Many folks will walk away disgruntled if an interest rate is introduced and no clear guideline is mentioned regarding what is next regarding other potential rate hikes – or a plan to actually lower the Federal Funds Rate. The U.S economy while strong could easily be sent into a recession with an interest rate hike and sustained higher WTI Crude Oil costs. 

Behavioral sentiment is going to remain on a toxic tightrope unless confidence is delivered. While individual perceptions about what should be done are important, understanding the mindset of the U.S Federal Reserve is crucial. Eliminating our own personal beliefs and bias from trading decisions and acting on what realities may be demonstrated are vital to profit. 

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Singapore Dollar 20260911

Conflicted Trading: Singapore Dollar and Federal Reserve Considerations

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesEconomyEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexIndiaRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

USD/SGD: Conflicting Desires From the Federal Reserve and Financial Institutions

The world of Forex is about to grow murkier in the coming days as shadows loom over financial institutions regarding their near-term decisions as they try to gain clarity regarding what appears to be confused and concerning mid-term outlooks for speculators and investors.

The USD/SGD is traversing near the 1.26776 vicinity as of this writing. The currency pair is trading within a long-term historical lower realm in which the 1.26000 level was challenged from mid-January until the first week of this year. This past Wednesday the USD/SGD traded near the 1.26280 mark. Previous to the current ratios and lows seen in early 2026, the Singapore Dollar traded around the 1.24475 level in June of 2014. The USD/SGD challenged 1.20000 level in early August of 2011 – yes, 25 years ago.

Singapore Dollar 20260911

USD/SGD One Year Chart as of 11th September 2026

Here Come The Risk Events: Inflation, BRICS, Iranian War and the U.S Fed

Now that we have alerted technical traders about the long-term depths of the USD/SGD being flirted upon once again, it needs to be pointed out that a parade of risk events are standing in front of global Forex today and next week. First up today is the U.S Consumer Price Index inflation data. This weekend the 18th BRICS Summit will be conducted in New Delhi, India as geopolitics and trade talks will get plenty of attention. Next Wednesday the U.S Federal Reserve will issue its FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate decision – which may produce a climax for theatrical trading in the coming week.

While it feels almost needless to say, the Iranian War has not relented. The price of WTI Crude Oil is around $100.65 per the cash market. The sustained highs achieved in the past couple of days do not show many signs of suddenly relenting. WTI Crude Oil was around $86.50 around the 1st of September, the USD/SGD was near 1.27200. To create a bit more alarm regarding the risk horizon going into this weekend the U.S 10-Y Treasury yields lurk around 4.945%, the 30-Y Bond yields are close to 5.355% – none of this sits well with the U.S White House, nor Treasury. In the midst of this investment noise, the price of Gold is close to $4,345.00, which still looks cheap considering current circumstances.

Crude Oil supplies remain anxious globally and inflation is certainly causing angst for citizens and a variety of government policies. Singapore will report August inflation data on the 23rd of September, July’s inflation data came in around 2%, with energy costs being the culprit for higher prices in many cases. The USD/SGD was near 1.29500 around the 14th of July. Prices for energy have not gone lower and the likelihood of them turning cheaper soon remains unlikely.

USD/SGD Correlations and Current Sentiment

USD centric action since the first week of July has showed weakness against many major currencies including the Singapore Dollar. Let’s put the USD/JPY to the side because of the intervention via the Bank of Japan and input of the U.S Treasury and Federal Reserve collectively. The USD/SGD is correlating to the broad market. Risk averse decisions have been prevalent in stock markets. The U.S major indices while remaining near higher altitudes are showing cautious behavioral sentiment.

The USD/SGD certainly went lower in January and early February of this year, but this occurred as doses of optimism were filling the air and in the absence of the Iranian war. Yet, the downturn in the USD/SGD has been formidable since highs around 1.29900 were seen on the 24th of June. In late November of 2025 the currency pair flirted with the 1.31000 level. 

Federal Reserve and Treasury Battle with Reality

The U.S Treasury and Federal Reserve will not tell the U.S public that the USD loss of value is an invisible tax. Nor does President Trump want Crude Oil prices to remain high because Americans are certain to get angry about more expensive gasoline prices, particularly if they remain elevated after being promised costs will come down. Reality may prove painful for all parties in the coming months.

Which leaves us with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this coming Wednesday and how it decides to decode the current anxious inflation concerns. Will the Fed try to explain that they still believe – due to the U.S intended Iranian war policy and its belief they will win in the coming months – that the Federal Funds Rate remains situated properly at around 3.50-3.75%? Delivering the important question regarding what exactly has been traded into the USD/SGD. Have financial institutions traded an interest rate increase into the currency pair already?

It certainly feels like long-term investors who believe the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to fight against stubborn inflation have refused to buy Treasuries cheaply and thus forced yields upwards the past months. So what does the Federal Reserve do as an ‘independent’ institution knowing that U.S White House and Treasury desires may not match policy coordination? It is the 40+ trillion USD debt question.

Will Fed Chair Kevin Warsh actually dare to raise the current borrowing rates and say that it is quite possible the rate can be lowered again in the mid-term? Or does he admit that as feared by many financial institutions that two to three interest rate hikes will be needed per old school economic thoughts, which may actually make the current circumstances of average Americans much worse with higher borrowing costs created across the board as a side effect?

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has not exactly proven efficient while addressing journalists and Fed watchers quite yet. His speech this coming Wednesday on the 16th will be crucial for the broad markets. The USD/SGD is trading within its lower realm, but durable support technically does lurk. Jittery Forex trading awaits for all.

Will the Federal Reserve be bold enough to actually NOT increase the current Federal Funds Rate and talk about the risks to the U.S economy because of potential recession concerns; this as the mid-term elections lurk in November and President Trump watches and doesn’t want talk about a slowdown in the U.S economy heard from what he considers his administration. However, the Fed is independent and can do as it wants in theory.

At this point the Federal Reserve and Treasury should make sure the drama is coordinated because many eyes will be focused on the coming show. And the end result over the near-term will be volatile Forex and a USD/SGD that reacts with price velocity depending on the immediate reactions from financial institutions as they judge the path ahead which will likely remain unclear. 

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AMT Top 10

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums

by with No Comment AMT Top TenArtificial IntelligenceAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomic CalendarEconomyEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsFootballForexInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

Higher Hopes and False Victories Welcome Nervous Investors Back After the Holiday

10. We Thought You Won – Part One: Apologies to Western Michigan University who had a victory stolen from them on Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Big Ten should not only be embarrassed, but they should be investigated. Big time college football suffered a black eye this past weekend. Folks wondering why WMU is not making a bigger stink regarding the added time and decision to repeat the last play of the game which ultimately cost WMU the contest against the Wolverines, should understand they will not. Because WMU needs to play against the University of Michigan to receive big pay days, which often are hard to find. WMU received 1.5 million USD for the game on Saturday and are scheduled to play against Big Blue again on the 1st of September, 2029.

9. Not Dead Yet: Bitcoin is trading near $78,800. After flirting with lows around the $58,100 vicinity in late June, BTC/USD has created momentum upwards. However, the elevator still can go down. Strategy via MSTR is near $142.00 per share. Michael Saylor survives and influencers are boisterous and breathing a bit easier – for now.

AMT Top 10

AMT Top 10 Miscellaneous Post-Labor Day Notes and Tantrums, 8th of Sept. 2026

8. Bad Brains: Tucker Carlson forayed into another absurd path when his recent guest, Jess Elofson, declared that Algebra is not needed and those who use it are ‘good little goy-slaves’. Carlson averages almost 57 million views to his podcast and social media outlets on a weekly basis.

7. NVDA: Nvidia is priced near $230.00 and the Nasdaq 100 finished Friday’s trading around 29,544. The Nasdaq 100 traded above 30,700 on the 3rd of June. Nvidia’s high touched the $236.00 level in the middle of May. Summer saw choppy reversals in the Nasdaq and S&P and values while elevated have run into cautious headwinds. Now that Labor Day is complete and summer ambivalence will be dusted off, where will the stock markets go? Iran lingers, inflation via higher energy costs looks problematic, mid-term election worries, AI infrastructure expenditures are concerning and bond yields all weigh on investment mindsets. Additional risk events are coming quickly down the road, Consumer Price Index data will be released this Friday and the Fed’s FOMC interest rate decision is next Wednesday on the 16th.

6. Reversal City: The USD/JPY is traversing below the 154.000 mark currently. The Bank of Japan and the U.S Treasury/Fed interaction regarding intervention and rhetoric about protecting the Yen’s value has apparently scared off buyers of the currency pair for the moment. Will bullish speculators now stay away from the USD/JPY for good? Doubtful.

5. Rhetoric Alone: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has found it difficult to convince the investment community that his lack of interest rate guidance is a good idea. Instead, the lack of clarity delivered from the Fed has led to higher Treasury yields. While Scott Bessent tried to fight the higher yields a couple of weeks ago, Treasuries are still smoldering and threaten to become a more dangerous fire. Investors and traders want more tangible proof that interest rate and monetary policies are structurally solid.

4. September 11th: This Friday will mark the 25th anniversary of terrorists attacks on the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and plane crash near Shanksville, Pennsylvania. 

3. Upwards: WTI Crude Oil price have shown plenty of nervous behavioral sentiment higher this past week. WTI Crude Oil is now over $94.00 in the cash market. Reports indicate that shipping via the Hormuz Strait has decreased again, this as military escalation appears ready to potentially increase as a reportedly desperate IRGC led Iran and frustrated U.S White House collide.

2. Post-Summer Guillotine: Danger lurks over the global marketplace, this as risk analysts, traders and investors appear to be converging into the same cautious direction. Forex, stock markets, bond yields, and key commodities are flashing bright yellow waring slow signals. Contrarian investors and speculators may be enjoying the current financial landscape. Value plays and volatile trading opportunities may feel appealing, but risk management is going to prove useful.

1. We Thought You Won – Part Two: After saying over the past handful of months that Iran had lost the war and just hadn’t surrendered yet, via Truth Social yesterday President Trump wrote that “when we WIN the war with Iran” that gasoline prices in the U.S would plummet. While observers are used to President Trump’s seemingly infinite capability to utter contradictory statements, yesterday’s appraisal of the current situation in the Middle East may be realistic, but it can also be observed as disquieting. There appears to be more trouble down the road.

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WTI CrudeOila 20260902

Bad Timing for President Trump May Equal Good Trading Opportunities

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsBehavioral SentimentBusinessEconomyEquitiesExclusive ContentFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesFinancial InstitutionsForexInvestingRisk ManagementRobert PetrucciSpeculatorsUncategorizedWorld

You Don't Have to be a Buyer in the Current Marketplace in Order to Profit

There are moments when the markets are calm and then there are these times. It is beginning to look like increasingly bad timing for President Trump and his administration’s hope to keep WTI Crude Oil prices in check and silence the chatter about inflation. 

Instead of a de-escalation based on tranquil conditions in the Middle East, investors were smacked in the face again last night. However, while this may be a bad time to be an investor unless they are looking for value plays, traders may actually have more opportunities in the current market circumstances as long as they manage their risks appropriately.

WTI Crude Oil jumped higher last night and while the commodity has outdone itself since late February regarding price velocity, last night’s performance likely felt volatile even for experienced large players who have solid intel on the ground regarding Middle East shipping and supplies. The energy sector has been more akin to the soft commodities regarding reversals the past handful of months, Coffee, Cocoa and Crude Oil have offered colorful price ranges. But that is not how WTI Crude Oil is supposed to work.

WTI CrudeOila 20260902

WTI Crude Oil 1 Year Chart as of 2 September 2026

Inflation concerns will not go away quietly as long as WTI Crude Oil remains highly valued. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh may in fact be putting on a show for the public – that he is his own man and can express his concerns regarding inflation no matter what President Trump thinks – when in fact he may simply be laying a framework to work in tandem with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and lower interest rates in order to create less pressure on Treasury yields. However, this planned (or conspiratorial) thinking may be hard to actually produce in reality on the 16th of September when the Fed’s FOMC has to show its cards once again. As long as WTI Crude Oil remains above $90.00, “Houston we have a problem,” murmurs may be heard loud and clear.

If Treasury yields remain tilted upwards because investors are refusing to buy them at cheaper rates, it will start to infect the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the Dow 30 more and create cautionary skirmishes which may produce deeper downsides in stock markets.

Iran wouldn’t want to cause President Trump problems, correct? Why would Iran want higher Crude Oil prices to ensnarl President Trump into a morass of political battles in the U.S and make life difficult for the Republicans during the mid-term elections? Does the IRGC have folks who understand the dynamics of U.S politics? Yes they do and it is a 100% certainty they would like to be a pain in President’s Trump’s aspirations.

We are left to deal with the ever-changing events that seem to be quite good at repeating themselves. Financial institutions are not only nervous about their mid-term outlooks, they are wary about the near-term too. Forex, commodities, bond yields, Wall Street and other global stock markets will struggle to make solid gains until clarity develops.

What will clarity look like? It will be optimistic banter in which rhetoric from different mouths and geographies is actually believed by the adoring crowds. Results do not have to be good, but outcomes need to be able to be forecasted and planned, allowing investors to seek their cash preservation and fortunes in a variety of assets (and show their overseers that they used adequate risk management in case things go wrong). 

Gold has done well recently, although it seems to have hit some resistance lately. However, if inflation tranquility is not achieved and if President Trump’s circumstances grow more dire, the precious metal will continue to offer speculative plays upwards. 

Investors are restless. Making 6 to 8% profits a year looks rather boring after plenty of solid years of upwards traction. Folks aren’t used to powerful financial storms and they forget about lingering troubled periods in which simple profits can prove comforting as broad markets struggle. 

Day trading is dangerous. However, those with solid risk taking tactics and those who aren’t married to the notion that markets only go up, but are willing to bet that markets (assets of many classes) can go lower too – now have an opportunity to test their technical perspectives and understanding of behavioral sentiment. 

Realistic targets using take profits and making sure stop loss protection still allows for a trade to move until goals are met is important when volatility is ripping price realms to shreds. Forex instability appears to be increasing as USD centric attitudes remain convoluted. Does Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have enough power to fight against an interest rate hike on the 16th of September, will the price of WTI Crude Oil cooperate, will President Trump’s wishful thinking about Iran come true? Results may not match what is wanted by the guardians of the marketplace. Contrarians may see the current market and global political situation as a time to seek value and help inflate markets, but they might be spitting into the wind. 

Maybe the AI concerns about infrastructure costs and corporate cash needs are baseless. Perhaps the deficit being created by the U.S and many other nations is simply idle chatter by risk analysts who are too nervous. Maybe there is a secret pill for all of us to become optimistic about all things.

It is a good time for traders to remain realistic and target exaggerated price movements in assets that offer opportunities in distressed offerings. You do not have to buy the marketplace to profit ladies and gentlemen.

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US Dollar Index 20260804

Apologia: Confronting Market Opinions and Pointing Out Wrongs

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsForexRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorized

The Markets Can and Will Harm You, Can You Survive?

The U.S Dollar Index is back to where it was trading on Friday the 13th of March. (Yes, a Friday the 13th). Literally a week and half after the Iranian war started from a trading perspective. We are almost half a year into the war and many are still acting surprised by surges which churn on a daily basis in WTI Crude Oil and a host of other assets including bonds, equities – indices, and Forex. 

A large group of people are acting as if the USD selloff sparked across the Forex board on Friday was doomsday and had evil intentions. But what if the Trump administration actually wants a weaker USD? What if all they need to do is to get Wall Street to kick into gear and create higher values to change behavioral sentiment in Treasury yields? It is not so easy to fool professionals is it?

The narrative that the N.Y Fed via orders from the U.S Treasury was selling USD to strengthen the JPY became a conspiracy masterclass in over-reaction. Particularly because the BoJ had intervened twice already this year prior to Friday’s action – why is nobody pointing to that? It doesn’t mean, by the way, that the BoJ suddenly knows what they are doing, but it doesn’t mean that the financial end of the world is near. We need to get over our own fears.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh may be new on the job, he may be nervous, but he is not a schoolboy, and likely has a plan of action. I agree it sometimes is not easy to discern what Warsh wants exactly, but the USD is now weaker and maybe Scott Bessent and Donald Trump do not mind. I didn’t call Bessent and Trump the Fed Chair’s boss please note – he is independent after all. Cough, cough.

Everyone Has An Opinion, Many of Them Are Wrong

I have a good friend who constantly tells me to make sure I give an opinion, he will know who he is when I say he has proven to be the worst trader I have ever known. Hello there, Mr. Bad Trader if you are reading. Part of the reason he is so bad at trading is because he has never understood who he is as an individual participant in the marketplace.

US Dollar Index 20260804

U.S Dollar Index Six Month Chart as of 4 August 2026

His ego will not let him admit to himself he is wrong. This is not an easy thing to do for anyone. When is the last time you were able to admit you were wrong about a market position and turn around on a dime and be willing to take a loss? 

My friend doesn’t seem capable of understanding he is not an investor, he is a trader. While his outlooks about the market often prove correct, his timeframes constantly complicate matters. He has never had the temprament to be an investor, he is too impatient. He always used too much exposure via leverage and he remained unwilling to change his sails even when the winds clearly told him he was about to get wrecked. My friend no longer trades.

I am certain he would be willing to trade someone else’s money, but he has no funds to risk on his own. And I kid you not when I say he has attempted to prove the marketplace wrong more times then can be counted and still thinks he will eventually be proven correct. 

So when was the last time you were able to change your mind about an opinion you held? When was the last time you said to yourself and aloud, “I am wrong and I misunderstood the circumstances.” And do you know why you were wrong?

We listen to analysts tell us why the marketplace is going to sink, we also pay attention when they say an asset is going to the moon. Analysts are never held accountable because they are able to say things like past results do not guarantee future results. They also get to point to risk disclaimers, have a look at ours angrymetatraders.com/risk-disclaimer, protecting their opinions about the markets put forth. So why should you pay attention to someone who has no skin in your game? Because it is important to get other viewpoints, once in a while you may actually be able to allow yourself to admit that your perspective is only one of many.

The broad markets have been unkind the last six months in many ways to retail speculators. Investors have gotten hurt, but they will likely survive or at least find a job elsewhere if they cannot improve their results in the coming months to hide their failures at their current firms. This is not a polite game you are playing as a retail trader. Your brokers’ no doubt love you and talk to you about the markets and your participation like it is a sporting event. ‘Even the great ones fail once in while,” have you heard this one? 

Yesterday I stumbled upon someone’s post on LinkedIn discussing a theory and ability to only aim for a half a percent of gain everyday as if that small target somehow made it achievable – all the time. Like compound interest they subtly suggested, half a percent gained everyday would show the level of control you would have in the marketplace and allow you to make millions of dollars within a few years. Good news, isn’t it?

However, many of us know, it just isn’t that easy. While it is a great notion to remain focused and not be too ambitious while trading, buying someone else’s system for a lot of money or being charged their management fee is a little like being chewed on slowly by a vulture. 

Where is the optimism? Where is the golden secret that will allow you to become a better trader? I don’t have any, except to say diligence, determination and knowing when you are wrong and need to get out of a position is vital. We all want to find the big wave and ride momentum in order to profit. 

Sometimes the markets look like they offer riches for the brave, but sometimes they turn into a pile of ashes. No matter how hard influencers want to praise certain assets they cannot shine a turd into gold. Sometimes the turds are merely garbage and need to be treated like fertilizer, allowing for something else to grow its in its place. Maybe that is replacement theory. Maybe it is meaningless. But this is a game with hard rules, risk management and knowing when you are wrong are among some of the more important early lessons that should be sustained.

A lot of smaller players are angry at larger players in the marketplace, the reason for this has a lot to do with survivability. Small traders like my friend are no longer able to speculate, big players who are frequently part of larger financial institutions simply go home and wait for another day. Those are my opinions, take them or leave them. Tomorrow is a new day and may offer more clarity, for the moment I suggest being careful in the broad markets.

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10Y Treasury Yields 20260728

Thoughts on Kevin Warsh, the Fed and USD, Energy, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY and Bitcoin

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommoditiesEconomyEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesForexInvestingRisk ManagementUncategorized

Fed’s Rate Announcement Tomorrow and Underlying Market Conditions as Folks Talk

Tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision from the Federal Reserve continues to cause some angst in the investment community as folks try to decipher Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s disdain for tea leaf reading. What is being missed by seemingly a lot of the crowd is the open signal from Warsh that he prefers to keep his outlooks rather muted, this because he appears to be focused on the mid and long-term economic picture.

Simply put, I do not think the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates tomorrow, nor will the Fed Chair give too much indication about his thoughts for mid-September. It might be stated in the Fed Press Conference afterwards that the costs of energy is being watched, but that is too obvious. Count on it being recorded that the Federal Reserve will watch data and react accordingly. In the meantime, financial institutions may demonstrate volatile overplayed USD centric positions which look overbought looking into the mid-term, as they still worry about the near-term.

10Y Treasury Yields 20260728

10-Year U.S Treasury Yields Five Year Chart as of 28 July 2026

Political Questions and the Cost of Energy as the Fed Reacts

Let’s for a moment dive into politics. Does anyone think that Kevin Warsh doesn’t speak to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has been a long-time associate? And does anyone think Bessent doesn’t have the constant voice of President Donald Trump in his ear? 

The mid-term elections are nearing ladies and gentlemen. The de-escalation in the Iranian situation certainly has something to do with nations expressing wishes for less military action to the White House. Israel, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey are trying to influence positions as President Trump considers his next moves regarding alliances and resources. However, the situation may have something to do with the price of WTI Crude Oil too and its effect on U.S manufacturing and surprise, surprise the Federal Reserve. 

Does anyone else remember that the last de-escalation also started just before the Federal Reserve’s last FOMC meeting in June? I am not being a conspiracy fanatic, just pointing out that lower WTI Crude Oil prices do help the case for a Fed outlook which looks at the costs of energy in a pro-active manner, one which might include the U.S economy and internal White House discussions with politicians who represent voters who have the power of creating a backlash. Lower interest rates equate into lower borrowing costs for consumers.

The Fed’s Impact on Equities and Forex (and the USD/JPY)

So if the Fed does not raise tomorrow, nor gives an indication of what it will do in September and offers a stance of ‘we are vigilant and will watch the economy’ will that help sentiment on the Nasdaq 100 which is starting to have the look of a patient with a bad cold who can’t quite seem to get rid of a cough? Microsoft and Meta step into the limelight tomorrow with earnings reports, Amazon and Apple follow on Thursday.  The combination of the Fed and important quarterly earnings will impact Nasdaq sentiment and other equity indices.

It appears analysts of financial institutions are starting to discuss CAPEX – capital and expenditures – openly. And this is creating shadows as investors weigh the costs of energy and infrastructure against stated profit projections. However, let’s not throw the baby out with the bath water, the Nasdaq 100 has a gain of 20%+ over the past year (July to July), and since March the index has still gained 12%+. The war in Iran (excuse me, conflict) has not had a meaningful impact it appears on the outcome of the Nasdaq 100 via sentiment generated. But the shadow of expenditures, debt and revenue is getting louder bandwidth and speculators need to remain cautious in the indices.

Back to the Fed and Forex, the USD has been strong, you are allowed to say extremely strong if you have been betting on downside incorrectly. The USD/JPY is almost in nosebleed terrain, currently 163.830. The Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate policy very early Friday (for those of us not in Asia) and let’s see if the ‘independent’ Bank of Japan is taking a cue from their government which is clearly interested in continuing to build stronger export ratios. Has the Bank of Japan given up the so-called stated fight to keep the JPY within a solid stance? This is doubtful externally, and Japan is certainly not going to allow the USD/JPY to traverse wildly higher, but it may not consider the 165.000 mark as the end of the world. Beware of saber-rattling from the BoJ in the coming days.

Bitcoin 20260728

Bitcoin Five Year Chart as of 28 July 2026

Doubts and Remarks Regarding Bitcoin Below $64K

On a last note, the world of cryptocurrency remains interesting and stormy. It appears from watching the awkward statements from influencers and crypto (including Bitcoin) media outlets the past couple of months, as they attempt to explain their pain and convince others that everyone should buy at these lower values that more troubles are coming. 

What are the influencers, crypto media’s and importantly financial institutions’ actual skin in the game relative to those who have lost interest in Bitcoin and the digital market worth? Are influencers and large institutions like BlackRock hoping to pawn off their suffering ‘asset’ holdings to the public, while trying to convince us that today’s cheap prices represent buying opportunities? Is the wave of slanted influence and panic-like banner waving a hope to save themselves in order to cash out of a sinking market, this while hoping someone else takes their place in lifeboats that face a difficult voyage to safe harbors? 

BTC/USD is near $63,4000 now. Yes, we know, we have been told plenty of times before that all the Bitcoin winters eventually turn into summer again. Blossoms will create the sweet scent of profit we are assured, but what if the winter becomes an ice age? What if Michael Saylor and his ability to produce complex financial statements and instruments for MicroStrategy and Strategy equity shares continue to make little mathematical sense? What if all the investors into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are left holding the bag and find themselves covered by permafrost? The tundra currently looks harsh. Will the Bitcoin crowd who has been so adamant about being free of regulatory controls and mismanaged central banks cry openly for bailouts from the U.S Treasury with USD? Now that would be entertaining.

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