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Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

The EUR/USD is near 1.15650 early this morning. The USD/JPY around 147.850. Forex has provided fast reversals and most major currency pairs are within well established known realms, but caution prevails. Friday’s U.S jobs numbers before going into weekend provided additional mud to filter through for those seeking clear outlooks. Were the employment numbers rigged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

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EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 4th August 2025

Questionable economic statistics have become an open sore spot for some analysts in the U.S, this has been a problem since the financial crisis of 2007/08 and ensuing years when politically expedient numbers were rumored to be in use so the Federal Reserve and U.S Treasury could work in a more comfortable manner. Let’s just say there are actual reasons why and how economic statistics could be used to hurt and help policies. For some evidence take a look at the art of revisions that has been practiced with key economic data the past handful of years. Financial institutions now need to consider the possibility that numbers cannot be trusted, interpret reports, try to decipher reality and consider impact.

Effect on the Federal Reserve is a big question. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continues to preach uncertainty and say a wait and see approach is needed because of implications regarding tariffs. However, conspiracy theories are also somewhat blown out of the water regarding the recent jobs numbers, because the lackluster results will actually put pressure on the Fed to cut rates in September in order to help spur on a better jobs market. So in other words, financial institutions, big investors and day traders are back to square one.

The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index stats will be published tomorrow for the U.S, but this report is likely to be a mere ingredient that affects the marketplace. Behavioral sentiment will remain the cornerstone in Forex, equity indices, Treasuries and commodities. August is typically a rather calm month of trading taking into consideration that holidays are being taken by many market participants, but as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Dow 30 remain elevated and capable of achieving new record highs, the USD creates chaos regarding outlook influenced by a Federal Reserve that is now in a difficult spot, and tariff implications are contemplated it would be wise to keep an eye on all near-term outcomes.

Technical trading and computer generated algos will factor into conditions as psychological levels are challenged and perceptions are debated. Has the global marketplace grown comfortable to the tactics used by President Trump? While it is easy to say yes, there are still plenty of reasons to remain concerned, this because White House policy seemingly has the ability to shift without notice.

Which has helped produce what may be the golden rule that develops under the current circumstances. Stay alert, stay optimistic but practice caution. Financial institutions have always practiced the art of realpolitik behind closed doors to chase profits, but they must remain vigilant to fast reactions caused from the potential sudden fear of shifting doctrine. President Trump’s rather swirling mix of laissez faire enterprise, and his stark ability to express anger at those who stand in his way or disagree with him do make for a new trading reality. Cautious optimism is likely to rule the world of investment and speculation going forward.

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Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

Everyone wants to know what will happen in the future in the financial world. Most everyone also knows that this is impossible. However, clarity about the mid-term is a legitimate focal point that financial institutions strive. Risk managers define their considerations on assorted perspectives depending on their backgrounds.

While some may like him and others clearly are are not fans, President Trump has a reputation for wanting to get things done. His calling card for a long time has been an ability to make business deals. President Trump however has put himself in a rather difficult position and the next two weeks may prove to be an important milestone. One in which those who like the President and those who don’t will be given more credence to debate.

The Federal Reserve will announce their FOMC decision on the 30th of July. Tariff deadlines will supposedly come on the 1st of August. President Trump has made it clear he does not like the lack of aggressiveness which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is displaying. Trump has called for the Federal Funds Rate to be cut and Powell has not acquiesced.

President Trump has openly spoken about trying to replace the Fed Chairman, but at this juncture the Trump White House knows this will be difficult unless they can prove Jerome Powell has done something maliciously. Not lowering the Federal Funds Rate because of a fear inflation will develop because of potential effects due to tariff fallout is a legitimate reason not to act. Even if the Fed Chairman is wrong, he appears to still be working on a basis which is based on an economic interpretation.

For the next two weeks the broad markets will hear about the Trump and Powell disagreement. It has been argued the Federal Reserve should have lowered the Federal Funds Rate a few months ago, clearly this was not done. However, the USD did trade with weaker sentiment in Forex from early April until the beginning of July. In the past few weeks the USD has garnered some strength, but remains within the lower part of its long-term realms via the U.S Dollar Cash Index. The weakness in the USD was likely due to financial institutions betting on rate cuts to come over the mid and long-term, and which they still believe will happen.

The upwards momentum generated recently by the USD has put the greenback in a position that seems to indicate financial institutions are transacting their cash forward orders cautiously for the moment, while waiting on the next round of impetus. And that is where Federal Reserve clarity and tariff threats now shadow mid-term outlooks.

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U.S Dollar Cash Index Five Year Chart as of 21st July 2025

We have entered an unpredictable window and President Trump apparently doesn’t mind allowing a little danger into the mindsets of the financial markets. It is one thing to proclaim tremendous results and great, magnificent prospects, but how long will investors tolerate a lack of clarity regarding tariff agreements? President Trump has postponed the tariff deadlines several times and what should be considered is the potential that at some point he will have to take action to prove he means business. If the August 1st deadline is extended again this may not cause much of a shock, but it will not be met with optimism.

Instead, the main interpretation from financial institutions may be that Trump is struggling to get agreements done as he had promised. While that might lead to the idea that global commerce will continue on as is, this will certainly not help create the positive impetus which President Trump desired. At some juncture President Trump may begin to be perceived as the little boy that cried wolf. No one will pay attention and the markets will proceed without him. But President Trump will not likely let that happen, he does like attention.

The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 are near record highs, so there isn’t a lot to complain about by index investors. The U.S economy has shown signs of green shoots regarding better retail sales and the recent Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The grey area for many remains inflation, which has been coming in rather well behaved although the most recent report showed a slightly higher outcome with the yearly CPI reading. However, the Federal Reserve actually has evidence that inflation has been tame. Yes, there are questions regarding the coming influence of tariffs on the U.S economy, but for the moment inflation has not risen.

The lack of clarity and not having a mid-term comfort level which is unperturbed may be problematic for small U.S business owners that face tariff concerns on their imported goods. And the bigger picture remains unclear for large U.S corporations – but they certainly continue to try being optimistic. And this is where it gets more dangerous, plenty of perspectives are being driven (inspired) by analysts who have confirmation bias. For instance the downturn in the USD from April until early July was amplified by many who saw this as a sign the USD was being punished by foreign governments opposed to President Trump. This in fact was highly unlikely, traders need to remain alert to false narratives.

The next two weeks need to be treated carefully. There will be a running monologue among many analysts that changes daily as behavioral sentiment moves depending on what is being spoken about the Federal Reserve and tariffs. However, until there are actual answers the financial markets are likely to remain rather choppy. Self awareness will be crucial for speculators. Also, a large factor in the financial markets will be played by the U.S White House regarding how incoming results are presented. Until then day traders may want to watch technical charts and try to figure out where programmed trading lurks regarding support and resistance levels. Price velocity in Forex, bond yields and gold should be monitored.

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The Fed: Beating a Dead Horse as the Bulls want to Run

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

The Fed: Beating a Dead Horse as the Bulls want to Run

Yesterday’s lackluster and underperforming GDP results from the U.S highlights our often discussed doubts surrounding the Federal Reserve. While Jerome Powell definitely has a right to be ‘uncertain’ and express his concerns regarding sudden inflation emerging, he has also proven to be wrong. The Fed should have begun cutting the Federal Funds Rate three months ago.

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10-Year U.S Treasury Yields Three Month Chart as of 27th June 2025

Although Powell may not be a fan of President Trump, the Fed Chairman and the FOMC has the ability to be more nimble in this era. Instead of being passive about interest rates, the Fed could have lowered borrowing costs and helped spur on the U.S economy months ago instead of watching GDP numbers falter.

For all of the consternation regarding potential tariff pratfalls, the effect from President Trump’s policies have not caused massive inflation. The Fed can begin cutting rates even before the next FOMC meeting in late July, but they will not. In fact, the Fed should now cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% in late July, but again they won’t. We will be lucky to get a 25 point basis cut.

The Federal Reserve remains too passive and acts as if it doesn’t have data technology which can be more proactive. Instead, Fed Chairman Powell chooses to act as if cutting the Fed Funds Rate is an academic exercise and can be done via a polite semester like manner akin to a report card. Dangerously, the U.S is paying an exorbitant amount of interest on long-term Treasuries and short-term Notes. Lower borrowing costs would also help U.S consumers. Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to care about these factors, which raises the consideration regarding his loyalties.

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U.S Dollar Index Five Year Chart as of 27th June 2025

In recent weeks there have been at least two FOMC members who have suggested that interest rates need to be cut sooner rather than later. And there are some financial institutions who are clamoring for aggressive interest rate cuts throughout the calendar year and into 2026 in order to jumpstart the U.S economy, this includes Goldman Sachs and UBS. Signs of evidence that interest rate cuts will develop can be seen in the 10-Year Treasury yields which have been eroding recently. Some may claim this is a false narrative and that it is merely risk premium starting to be discounted. Nevertheless yields have lowered in the past month.

Yes, President Trump speaks loudly and delivers brawling negotiations. July 9th is another deadline for tariff agreements. However, financial institutions and many governments have learned to cope with President Trump’s backstreet tactics, which academics like Jerome Powell are not fond of particularly. U.S stock markets are hovering near highs, but still cautious because they are waiting on impetus from the Federal Reserve.

If the Fed fails to deliver an impactful FOMC Statement in late July this will not be greeted well by investors. Many believe the Fed needs to react, and it is quite apparent the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and even the Dow 30 are positioning for gates to be opened allowing for a bullish stampede. The USD has been weaker too the past few months as large commercial players anticipate lower U.S borrowing costs. The time for the Fed and Chairman Powell to act is now, making it clear that cuts to the Federal Funds Rate are coming.

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Crude Oil: A Guess from the Underbelly On What Happens Next

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Crude Oil: A Guess from the Underbelly On What Happens Next

Why has the WTI Crude Oil Spot price remained relatively calm? The war between Israel and Iran has been going on per this latest violent phase since Friday the 13th. While tensions have been high between the two nations from the 7th of October 2023 in a very outward manner, and missiles were fired from Iran towards Israel on two separate dates in 2024 which then featured Israeli retaliation, the past handful of days is a new escalation.

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WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Six Month Chart as of 18 June 2025

Day traders of WTI Crude Oil need to understand that large players in the energy sector have a vast amount of experience and intel regarding production and supply worldwide when they make their buying and selling decisions. However, the biggest oil traders do not always share the same political viewpoints, except to say most large players in the energy sector practice the art of realpolitik. Day traders of WTI Crude Oil should try to get into the minds of the real movers of WTI Crude Oil via realpolitik considerations.

As of this writing the price for WTI Crude Oil is around 73.930 Spot, late yesterday it did move higher to within sight of the 75.750 USD mark – this when information that President Trump is considering a U.S military strike on Iran heightened. Traders need to understand Spot Crude Oil and Futures pricing can be different. The current value of WTI Spot is higher than the Futures pricing because of the short and near-term known risks.

However, volatility in WTI Crude Oil Spot has remained fairly muted, almost tame as Israel and Iran wage war. Other spot energy prices like Brent and Natural Gas are being affected directly too because of shifts in behavioral sentiment. But again, the prices within the energy sector have remained calm considering what is at stake for global economics. Here are points that may be affecting the WTI Crude Oil landscape and energy complex, which some large traders may be contemplating:

  • It is highly likely the U.S has told Israel not to harm Iranian Oil production or supply sites, including shipping.

  • The U.S does not want the price of WTI to jump rapidly because of the current war between Israel and Iran.

  • Inflation would be a scrouge for the global economy, not to mention President Trump’s ambitions.

  • Even though the U.S has its own energy supply, the price of WTI is affected by behavioral sentiment within the global Crude Oil complex.

  • Meaning conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere always cause ripple affects, even if Crude Oil is flowing freely in the U.S via its own production.

  • The U.S doesn’t want China to be given a reason to consider becoming an open belligerent in the Middle East war.

  • China gets a lot of Crude Oil from Iran. The stated percentage is around 15% of its total supply, but it could be more if Iran sends oil to other locations and then reroutes supply to China afterwards.

The U.S not only wants to keep China calm about its energy supply, but also doesn’t want to give China an excuse to escalate political or military tensions elsewhere – read Taiwan.

As an aside there are a lot facts and rumors coming from China, highlighting that a powerplay is emerging between competing factions for leadership in China’s military, this may include the authority that Xi Jinping has too. China will be conducting Politburo meetings in the coming weeks that will get plenty of attention via Beijing analysts. If U.S intelligence knows an internal political fight is taking place in China, they will want to keep China calm regarding external considerations and not give China excuses to act. Concerns regarding the Middle East as a justification for more Chinese actions against Taiwan in some type of economic political/ military theatre is a threat.

By telling Israel not to attack Iranian oil infrastructure, this allows the U.S to placate China. Only if Iran were to attack U.S infrastructure – including military assets or interests in the Persian Gulf via attacks on Gulf States like the UAE, Bahrain or Saudi Arabia would the U.S consider retribution against Iranian Crude Oil.

While the U.S has an interest in global politics certainly, it also wants to maintain a stable global economic environment. President Trump knows this and so does his cabinet supposedly. The Federal Reserve meets later today and they will certainly speak about uncertainty regarding inflation. Whether or not they mention the Middle East war will be interesting.

Thus, it is likely the U.S will only allow an attack on Iranian Crude Oil production and supply if it has been directly threatened. And this is where it gets potentially more interesting for Crude Oil traders. It appears likely the U.S will get involved directly in Iran by hitting known Iranian nuclear facilities deep underground with heavy U.S ordinance. If the U.S does attack Iran via B2s using heavy bombs, how will Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps react?

Will the existing IRGC allow for the destruction of its nuclear ambitions and accept that it will have to prepare for a new political environment in which their power will likely be challenged by not reacting? Or will those in power of the IRGC double down on stupidity and attack U.S assets with some of the Iranian military weaponry that still remains? An attack on U.S ‘interests’ would risk aggravating the U.S more – giving the U.S reasons to attack Iranian economic infrastructure which is mostly Crude Oil, and likely close the door on the chances of the IRGC to survive after the war concludes.

Things often do not work out via political and military outlooks. The law of unintended consequences is always a danger. The end game is quickly approaching for Iran’s current leadership. The U.S and Israel also hopefully have taken this into account. Recent outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan have not gone as planned for the U.S when seeking a serene endgame.

As an example, it might be better not to eliminate the current Ayatollah Khamenei, and allow the people of Iran an opportunity to remove him if they want. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various factions are probably eyeing what will come after a capitulation. There will be a fight for survival politically and a leadership vacuum.

The IRGC fiefdom gets most of its money from Crude Oil revenues. It is quite possible in a forward looking manner the IRGC may choose not to risk having the U.S ruin Iran’s one giant economic asset, thinking rightly or wrongly that they can continue to profit from Crude Oil the day after the war ends.