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Nervous Results Next: Forex and Equities Wait for Jobs Data

Tomorrow's jobs numbers from the U.S will get plenty of media coverage. Typically the Non-Farm Employment Change data is used as a selling tool by brokers to get their traders motivated and speculating on Forex and stocks via CFDs with the promise of swift price action. Many times the jobs numbers prove to have limited value, serving mostly as entertainment for back office risk managers at Forex houses as the whipsaw value changes wipe out speculators across the board. However, tomorrow may prove different.


Friday's Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings statistics may produce dynamics worthy of their news coverage. Financial institutions are actually quite interested in tomorrow's coming reports as the U.S Federal Reserve lingers in the shadows having spoken boldly about raising the Federal Funds Rate in November. It would take a weaker hiring result from the Non-Farm Employment Change data, and lower inflation numbers from the Average Hourly Earnings outcome to change financial institution outlooks regarding the U.S central bank.

One month chart of EUR/USD downward trend as of 5th of October 2023.
EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

The trend of the EUR, GBP and JPY clearly demonstrate the value that has been lost against the USD over the past three months. While many financial institutions and speculators believe the USD will begin to lose strength eventually, timing the moment this is going to start happening in earnest is difficult. U.S Treasuries have come off of highs in recent trading, but nervousness remains abundant and recent heights remain in sight. Tomorrow's U.S jobs number could reignite fear and spark behavioral sentiment which is reactionary.


As a side note, while U.S indices turned in some gains on Wednesday, the moves higher were not exactly momentous which sets up the U.S stock markets to produce a sudden reversal lower if widespread nervousness is produced today and tomorrow.


Importantly, hiring is believed to be weakening in the U.S by some analysts, but there is plenty of talk about a lack of qualified workers to fill important jobs still. So while the Non-Farm Employment Change number may come in below estimates and could spark hope among financial institutions the U.S Fed will be given a reason to sit on their hands, it is the Average Hourly Earnings inflation numbers which should be watched even more closely. If the costs of paying wages is more expensive than the previous month, this would spark concerns about price pressures remaining problematic.


Analysts have also continued to speak about concerns regarding revisions being made by the U.S government to past jobs reports, which means financial institutions are wary of positioning themselves fully based on the current month's reporting. Accurate reporting from the U.S government has become problematic, and is causing nervous and conspiracy minded chatter in some trading corners.

Crude Oil one month chart as of 5th Oct with a decline being highlighted past week.
WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 5th Oct. 2023

Another factor which day traders may want to consider is the price of Crude Oil which has sunk below 84.00 USD per barrel in the footsteps of a one week decline. If the price of the commodity can remain muted and show a solid trend downwards this would help reduce hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.


As we go into tomorrow's jobs numbers from the U.S, the broad markets do continue to exhibit nervousness which appears justified. The results of the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings may produce results which cause a reaction which shakes the outlooks of financial institutions and carries strong implications for day traders that matter.

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