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FX Trends: Brutal Months for Day Traders and Happy Brokers

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

FX Trends: Brutal Months for Day Traders and Happy Brokers

The past few months for day traders have likely not been pleasant experiences for many. Forex, equity indices and other assets have experienced plenty of volatility and finding a trend has not been easy. While speculators who are wagering on the ups and downs in the marketplace have been getting crushed, their brokers likely have not been getting hurt.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 7th of March 2025

Day traders need to understand that CFDs are virtual. Your broker is merely placing a wager for you on chosen direction, in most cases they are acting as ‘the house’ and know the volatility is going to knock you out of your trade. They pocket your losses as their winnings in many cases. The brokers are not only making money from the differentials from the bids and asks (the spread), they might also be charging you a transaction fee.

If a broker feels less confident about their ability to make a profit off your poor results (I am not kidding about this), then they sometimes insure your wager via a liquidity provider who in many cases is literally betting against your broker, because the liquidity providers believe your broker is likely being overly cautious. (A vicious circle). In other words brokers allow your trades to work virtually (not in the real marketplace) on something many risk management rooms in Forex call the B Book. If the broker is not certain if you will lose money, they put your trades into something called an A Book. And, yes, many liquidity providers (the A Book providers) are betting against their clients (who are brokers seeking to mitigate their risks).

Again, the brokers and the liquidity providers do not believe you will make money most of the time. They are allowing you to bet and they are happy to take your wager, because historical evidence shows retail bettors in Forex tend to lose money via their trading accounts at least 85% over long durations. Depending on what source you look at regarding CFD statistics, speculators tend to do a little better against their brokers but still lose money more than 50% of the time. Some statistics claim up to 75% of the CFD outcomes via trading accounts equate into losses for speculators.

And if all of this sounds like sour grapes, it is not, it is a warning to you the bettor. Brokers in many cases are glorified casinos that provide you an opportunity to wager. You need to acknowledge the above before your start trading. Speculating on Forex and CFDs ( via equities, indices and commodities) is like betting on a horse. The racetrack doesn’t lose money, they know most bettors simply enjoy the thrill of gambling and don’t mind losing. Racetracks are happy to pay the occasional winner. If you choose to wager on Forex and CFDs you need to practice risk management.

You probably didn’t come here to be reminded about risk management, you have heard it before – conservative leverage, price targets, timeframe parameters, entry – stop loss – take profit orders are standard warnings. You want to read about trends, you want to know which direction you should take, yet there are no guarantees and that is why speculating is gambling. You are wagering.

If you intend on improving your odds, by following solid risk taking tactics – including trying to understand behavioral sentiment via the financial institutions you are trying to emulate, you might find better results. And still, speculating will be tough.

The U.S will release Non-Farm Employment Change numbers today, but traders should pay attention to the Average Hourly Earnings report which will give insights about inflation too. However, the jobs numbers may prove to be a false narrative, because more importantly, whether you like him or not, there is the Trump Effect to ponder.

Tariff mantras and fears, negotiations regarding the fate of Ukraine, and a myriad of other concerns have financial institutions anxious as they try to seek clarity. Equity indices have been a mess. Yet, the USD Cash Index has given back a lot of its gains since February the 4th – this after the Forex bloodshed caused by nervous reactions to fear of tariffs being implemented. And now, not so coincidently the USD Cash Index is traversing values it saw on the 5th of November 2024, yes, U.S Election Day. Speculators and financial institutions have returned full circle to big unknowns.

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EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

by with No Comment AMT MarketsFeatured HighlightsForex

EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 3rd of March 2025

The EUR/USD bounced slightly higher in early trading this morning, this after Friday’s burst lower when nervousness was ignited by the loud outcome (and lack of a resolution) via the Zelensky and Trump meeting. However, after achieving some buying impetus to start today, the EUR/USD is running into nervous headwinds as concerns remain evident.

This Thursday the ECB is expected to cut another 0.25 from its Main Refinancing Rate. The difference between borrowing rates from the ECB and Fed will be significant if the ECB does lower costs. E.U economic data warrants the dovish policy, while concerns about stubborn U.S inflation persists. And President Trump will have something to say about the Federal Reserve’s policy too. Trump wants the Fed to lower the Federal Funds Rate.

The U.S will issue its Non-Farm Employment Change numbers this Friday. And many Fed members will be speaking at various engagements this coming Thursday and Friday which is certain to get attention. Financial institutions will certainly be listening for clues regarding the potential of shifting viewpoints regarding the Fed’s current stance which is cautious from FOMC officials.

Which brings us back to the current value of the EUR/USD and behavioral sentiment which is being generated by a deep sea which is not clear. The EUR/USD into early last week was showing signs of bullishness, this as folks piled into the notion the currency pair was in oversold territory. The ability of the EUR/USD to remain above 1.04000 today should be watched. While there has been upside early this morning, European traders and full market action will begin to kick off in about one hour.

Day traders need to know the potential rate cut cut from the ECB this coming Thursday has been anticipated and factored into the EUR/USD already. Leaving the currency pair ready to be influenced by USD centric perspectives, and Ukraine concerns which are unresolved. The U.S equity indices should be watched too via their less than inspiring results the past week. While many financial institutions believe the EUR/USD should be valued higher, this may be based on instinctive bias instead of fundamental reasons.

Economists are great for insights, but it is skittish sentiment which is driving the markets. Volatility is likely and the price range of the EUR/USD could prove tactically challenging and wide. If cautious attitudes in financial institutions create calm, the EUR/USD could produce durable support levels, which could be used for upside wagers. Speculators will have opportunities in the currency pair this week, but risk management will be essential to protect against sudden gusts caused by swirling Trump rhetoric.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Reckonings for the 8th of December

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Reckonings for the 8th of December

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10. France Falls: President Macron’s leadership is in peril after his anointed Prime Minister, Michael Bernier, suffered a no confidence vote outcome. French politics and finances are in shambles. Life for French citizens goes on as their politicians battle for their jobs, supremacy of voice and egos. With the restoration and presentation publicly of Notre Dame Cathedral yesterday, Macron now has to find something else to divert attention away from his misappropriation of power.

9. 100,000: Bitcoin came within sight of the 104,000 USD vicinity this Thursday, then sunk with a rapid pace and challenged 92,000. Once again traversing near 100 grand, large BTC whales and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor and his cult of followers are likely celebrating. However, if the wind changes direction what kind of damage will the low tides create this time for Bitcoin and speculative leveraged positions? The price of BTC/USD as of this writing is near 99,500.

8. Al-Assad: The Syrian regime is apparently coming to an end after 50 plus years in power. Bashar al-Assad’s whereabouts are unknown. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah appear for the moment to be big losers in this power play. The many factions will now have to see if they can create a semblance of government, but that remains doubtful. Syria will be a quagmire in the coming months as its cauldron stirs.

7. Martial Law: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol startled Asia and foreign investors by declaring martial law this past week, making one of the worst political miscalculations in recent memory. Yoon was quickly forced to rescind the decision. The USD/KRW spiked and KOSPI Composite sank via the instability. However, the South Korean National Assembly has shown the ability to provide leadership and display power of law prevails, this as they try to calm their citizens concerns and investor sentiment.

6. Roasted: Coffee Arabica has boiled again and commodity’s price is fighting within apex levels. Like Cocoa, both Arabica and Robusta Coffee have surged the past year as large players have created a strangulated grip which suggests the markets may be ‘cornered’. While some analysts are quick to point out weather conditions as a reason for the higher prices, the tenacity of Coffee and Cocoa to sustain upwards momentum is intriguing but also suspicious.

5. FX and Data: U.S jobs numbers this Friday were marginally better than anticipated and the Average Hourly Earnings came in slightly above expectations. Economists from different schools of thought are debating the potential of recession and inflation concerns, versus those who believe growth, greater transparency of U.S fiscal mandates and elimination of a bloated budget will be achieved when Trump’s economic policies takeover. Globally Forex conditions are showing signs of fragility because of the threat of tariffs and trade concessions by nations which may need to be made. Yet, it is quite possible the ‘bad news’ consisting of accusations of unfair trade agreements by Trump, and the reactions which have been cooked into the EUR, GBP, JPY, ZAR, MXN, CAD, NZD and others is overdone. While there could certainly be more weakness in major global currencies paired against the USD, upside potential mid-term may be more positive compared to near-term drawdowns. Retail traders still face difficult technical perceptions in the days ahead because financial institutions also remain shaky regarding their outlooks.

4. Pardon Me Joe: President Biden has forgiven his son, Hunter Biden, for crimes known and unknown for an eleven year period – that is not a round number ladies and gentlemen, with a Presidential Pardon. Why 11 years? Why not 10 or 15? There is conjecture that Joe Biden is also considering preemptive pardons for people his administration feels may face the wrath of the incoming Trump White House. However, if pardons are given to the likes of Anthony Fauci, won’t the pardons awarded to those who have not been charged with a crime yet look like an admission of guilt?

3. Central Banks: The ECB will deliver their interest rate decision on the 12th and the Federal Reserve will announce their Fed Funds Rate on the 18th. Behavioral sentiment however is seemingly more focused on the threat of potential storms that could suddenly appear due to the Trump effect. The ECB and Fed are both expected to cut their interest rates by a quarter of a point, while it appears many financial institutions no longer believe the Fed will cut again in January.

2. Chinese Gold: Tucked away in the quiet corners of the business news has been the discovery of a massive gold ore deposit in China. Some geologists claim the Wangu gold field could have up to 1,100 tons of the precious metal. If correct and the amount of gold meets or exceeds the expectations of the experts, the question about this becoming a deflationary event for gold is intriguing but likely wrong. Importantly, the gold will be a long-term benefit for China and potentially create a stronger national currency via the Renminbi (China Yuan). Perhaps also solidifying the idea of using the reserve as part of the backbone for a potential BRICS ‘Unit’ currency if and when that day ever arrives. Gold closed at nearly 2633.00 USD per ounce before going into this weekend.

1. Trump Effect: WTI Crude Oil is around 66.78 USD as the promise of easier energy production for U.S companies has created the conviction of steady and less expensive supply. The USD remains in the stronger elements of its long-term Forex range, and folks betting against the strength of the USD need to remain cautious. BRICS has been warned about not infringing on the USD by Donald Trump, and some member nations of the organization have affirmed they do not seek a BRICS currency (yet). Tariffs have been threatened, but China has responded by showing it has the ability to create potential hinderances this week via a tough negotiation stance by threatening to stop export of rare earth metals to the U.S. Mexico and Canada have felt the verbal wrath of the President-elect already and started to react. All of this while Donald Trump still has six full weeks before taking power.

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Forex: Trump Effect and Reasonable Trading Caution for All

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Forex: Trump Effect and Reasonable Trading Caution for All

The Forex market the past two months has created a profoundly stronger USD against many major currencies. The combination of late September intrigue regarding U.S Federal Reserve outlook, then nervousness about the approaching U.S election, followed by the subsequent results have been a dumpster fire for many speculators looking for a sustained return to USD centric weakness. Hopefully risk taking tactics have included a solid dose of caution.

This week’s Non-Farm Employment Change numbers scheduled for Friday may give financial institutions a moment to focus on economic data instead of President-elect Donald Trump’s loud pronouncements, but the effect may prove to only be momentary. It isn’t data that is driving Forex for the moment it is nervousness and fear of the unknown.

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USD/BRL Three Month Chart as of 3rd December 2024

While many financial institutions and speculators trade only the major currency pairs, taking a look at the less obvious and more infrequently transacted major currencies may provide retail traders additional perspectives regarding the fragile nature of Forex. Many nations and large institutions are demonstrating concerns about possible sea changes to U.S foreign economic policy. Yes, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY have all seen volatility via USD strength the past two months, but price velocity in the USD/BRL, USD/RUB, and USD/INR may be equally intriguing. And prove that mid-term forecasts (or lack of them) are causing bedlam for all.

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USD/RUB Three Month Chart as of 3rd December 2024

While it is more than probable calmer heads will start to be seen in Forex and weakness eventually will return to the USD, trying to pick the exact moment this is going to happen remains a guessing game. Financial institutions via evidence in current Forex pricing remains rather cautious regarding their cash forward commercial enterprise. President-elect Donald Trump has certainly been dealt with before and his negotiation style is that of a businessman, it is not a coincidence that some global leaders who do not exactly see eye to eye with Trump are giving him respect because they understand he will act upon threats if not dealt with fairly.

Trump’s recent brief rhetoric regarding BRICS and the organization’s public consideration of creating a new currency to compete with the USD did not go unnoticed this weekend. Critics may want to proclaim Trump’s threats as belligerent, but BRICS is free to create a new currency still if they wish. While Trump cannot stop the birth of a BRICS currency, he can certainly try to initiate actions (via sanctions) against nations that attempt to create a new unified currency which tries to curtail the dominance of the USD. It would certainly help Trump’s bargaining position and the USD also, if better fiscal policy is practiced by the U.S Treasury and government.

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USD/INR Three Month Chart as of 3rd December 2024

It needs to be pointed out that Trump’s warning to BRICS may not be needed. Even though the organization may be able to create a currency based on a commodities backbone, the lack of trust many financial institutions and nations would feel towards a non-transparent fiat currency powered by the fiscal monetary policies from the likes of Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa remains a difficult sell. Until many changes happen domestically within these nations via governance, creation of a BRICS currency remains wishful thinking.

Getting back to the big picture and the volatility recently seen in Forex. While the major currencies teamed against the USD have certainly faced hectic conditions, the fluctuations have not been unexpected. Day traders need to understand the month of December is likely going to remain choppy and see a test of technical support and resistance levels that are wide and full of fast reversals.

The question for the EUR, GBP, and JPY is if most of the negative inputs into these currencies has been factored into value. The suspicion may be yes, and that strength may rightfully appear in these big three sooner rather than later. However, the approaching holiday season and potential bluster from President-elect Trump will not make this a comfortable or easily wagered avenue.

Short-term retail traders looking to take advantage of the bloodbath created in Forex the past two months who seek opportunities should focus on perceived targets which aren’t overly ambitious. The coming U.S jobs data this Friday may allow the U.S Federal Reserve room to cut the Federal Funds rate on the 18th of December by another quarter of a point. As a point of attention, the European Central Bank will announce their Main Refinancing Rate on the 12th of December. The ECB’S actions may be a solid clue regarding the Fed’s approach to upcoming policy.

However, even if an interest rate cut were to take place via the Federal Reserve, it is likely the cut has already been factored into Forex. Which also highlights the high degree of nervousness that exists because of fears which permeate due to Donald Trump’s tough negotiation stances which have been made public. Meaning those who are looking for USD centric weakness to emerge still need to rely on a shift within behavioral sentiment to occur that is not generated because of the Federal Reserve. Nations need to show a willingness to amend existing trading agreements with the U.S, allowing for changes to internal policies regarding exuberant price duties they place on U.S goods in their own countries.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

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10. Priorities: Not to dismiss the execution of beloved Peanut the Squirrel by New York authorities recently, but lets reflect on the fact that this little fellow made international news while wars are raging, and nearly 300 people in the U.S are dying from drug overdoses per day. Social media is rather powerful.

9. NBC: Kamala Harris appeared on Saturday Night Live for roughly 90 seconds this weekend, this created criticism and questions about unfair airtime for the Vice President. SNL is lucky to get more than 5 million viewers per episode on average. To try and apologize for the potential trouble, NBC then gave Donald Trump free commercial airtime twice yesterday, once during a NASCAR race which on average attracts over 3 million viewers, and on a Sunday night NFL broadcast which averages sometimes up to 22 million viewers.

8. Saber-Rattling: There is a potential Iran is waiting on the outcome of the U.S vote for President before undertaking more military actions. Deciding if and how they are going to launch another attack on Israel, depending on who wins the U.S election because of the potential ramifications is likely part of their military strategy.

7. BTC/USD: Bitcoin as of this writing is trading near 68,500 USD. The digital asset continues to bounce around rather intriguing resistance. On Tuesday of last week Bitcoin traded near 73,500 momentarily, while the highs are certainly noteworthy, support for the speculative asset has been around 66,000 since the middle of October. There are reasons to suspect Bitcoin will display a large amount of volatility this week, particularly when the new U.S President is known.

6. Forex: As of this writing the USD/JPY is slightly below 152.000, the EUR/USD is around 1.09000, the GBP/USD is near 1.29650. The question is where these currency pairs and other major FX assets will be in three nights. Day traders dreaming of riding momentum via financial institutions need to understand the equilibrium of risk and reward. In other words, the same amount of money you can make, is likely the same amount of money you can lose. Risk management will be a life preserver for many speculators this week.

5. U.S. Data: This past Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers came in wildly below the 106,000 jobs added estimate, the result of only 12,000 hired was rather shocking, but met with almost muted bewilderment. Also, the jobs numbers showed another revision lower from the previous month. Advanced GDP quarterly numbers, on Wednesday the 30th of October, also missed their estimate coming in with a 2.8% gain compared to anticipated growth of 3.0%. The U.S economy is still under stress.

4. Barometers: Risk adverse trading has been widespread the past handful of weeks. While gold has reached new highs and is slightly below the 2,750.00 mark for the moment, one month from now will be a telltale for gold and many assets. Since the end of September a number of narratives have been heard trying to explain the results seen across the board, but the simple answer is caution has entered the markets. U.S equity indices are still flirting with highs, even as they have suffered downturns in recent trading. WTI Crude Oil is near 71.50 USD per barrel. Gold, U.S equities and WTI Crude Oil will react to the outcome of the U.S election and serve as solid behavioral sentiment indicators in one month when compared to current prices.

3. Federal Reserve: If last week’s U.S economic data had been delivered without the fanfare of the U.S election approaching, Fed observers would likely be anticipating a dovish sounding FOMC Statement coming on the 7th of November. Instead, the USD has remained rather strong as risk adverse trading has been demonstrated in the broad markets. The Fed is certainly in a position to cut the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25 basis points, some could even argue for another 0.50% cut. However, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by a quarter of a point and sound rather cautious as they too read the landscape in the wake of the U.S voting results. Mid-term outlook from the Fed will be scrutinized this Thursday.

2: Nervousness: Day traders who decide to participate in the broad markets near-term may also enjoy walking outside and looking at approaching storms and dreaming about the fury about to come. Being anxious before and during large risk events when outcomes are unknown is a survival instinct. Speculators need to protect themselves over the next couple of days. Tranquil trading in all major assets may appear, but as tomorrow grows long assets will begin to percolate and by Wednesday almost all financial markets will be boiling. While this is certainly being hailed as the most important week of the year because of the U.S election and the Federal Reserve, it is also a very dangerous time to be trading. Those with limited funds may want to hunker down in a safe place and watch the markets create bedlam over the next 48 hours.

1. U.S Election: The vote is less than one day away when old standards are considered. However, more than 72 million votes have been cast early in the U.S already. That’s more than 45% of the total U.S vote during 2020, when 158,434,567 votes were counted. While the media bangs the drum regarding the incoming results tomorrow, it is important to note that many Americans and global observers are merely waiting for the final results to be announced. The end of the election campaign is nearly upon us, now financial institutions and traders await clarity. Wednesday the 6th of November is going to be an interesting day for the markets.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

by with No Comment BaseballBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

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10. MLB Concern: Baseball executives are hoping the Yankees can start to make the World Series more competitive this evening. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the first two games of the championship battle. Significant hopes for a drama filled, seven game World Series would be dampened badly if the Yankees do not win tonight. Television ratings which were expected to be high could suffer appreciably if the Yankees go down three games to none. A non-competitive championship would mean a loss of revenue.

9. Israel and Iran: The Middle East saga is at number nine, and hopefully doesn’t become number one. A dangerous game of poker is being played by the participants. If Iran decides to up the ante once again, it would be a dangerous decision, because it appears Israel has positioned itself via this weekend’s retaliation to be more aggressive if need be.

8. WTI Crude Oil: The ability of the energy to move below 70.00 USD upon this morning’s trading is a sign the Middle East conflict remains tranquil in the minds of large participants in the oil sector. However, if Iran decides to test Israel again directly, Iran may find that its oil infrastructure is vulnerable. As the price hovers below 68.00 USD during this writing, it appears buyers who bought speculative positions the past few weeks might be capitulating.

7. BRICS: The inclusion of 13 additional nations as Partner States to the international organization led by Russia, China and India shows the entity sees itself as a growing alternative geo-political force and trading sphere with real power. The West should be paying attention, but often seems like it is not concerned about the potential strength of BRICS, and instead makes believe the group is a fallacy and much ado about nothing – this is a mistake by the West.

6. North Korea: The potential of North Korean combat troops entering the Ukraine – Russia war is a dangerous notion. However, it opens the door for Ukraine and South Korea to offer surrendering deserters the possibility of being allowed into South Korea, if soldiers can prove they are not spies. Unfortunately, the temptation of desertion by enemy troops could prove to be wishful thinking because North Korean soldiers will have intense supervision at all times; the threat of being shot as a liable traitor is a likely constant menace.

5. Gold: Record values continue to be seen, the price of the precious metal as of this writing is near 2,732.00. Noted as a store of value, gold is also seen as a safe haven by its buyers. Now may be the time to consider behavioral sentiment as a main driver because of anxiousness in the global marketplace. Speculative forces are certainly involved in the move higher too. With so many risk events shadowing, it may be very unwise for day traders to bet against the rise of gold near-term.

4. U.S Data and the Fed: Advance GDP numbers will be published this Wednesday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be seen this Thursday, and on Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics will be presented. Fireworks should be anticipated by day traders. The combination of these reports, the approaching U.S election, and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting decision on the 7th of November will be enough to make most analysts hearts beat faster.

3. USD/JPY: Japan’s election results today now require a coalition government because the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority. The Bank of Japan has a meeting this Thursday and is expected to hold its BoJ Policy Rate in place. The Japanese Yen has returned to values above the 153.000 level as of this writing. While many major currencies have lost value against the USD since the end of September, the USD/JPY needs to be watched as a dynamic combination of risks abound. Political gridlock, inflation, and lackluster economic data in Japan are not ingredients which will provide financial institutions with optimism in the near-term. The historically cautious attitude of the Bank of Japan will be severely tested in the coming weeks.

2. U.S Election: There is a little more than one week to go before the Presidential vote begins. While many folks are focused on the White House, the race for the Senate looks to be a stiff competition too. Republicans are hoping to regain the majority in the Senate and retain their power in the House of Representatives. Financial institutions are apprehensive about the outcomes for Congress, which will have an important role in fiscal and regulatory management. The Democrats appear to be nervous. Noise from the campaign trail and media will become heightened over the next seven days. Top bureaucrats in offices like the SEC, CFTC, FCC and other agencies know their jobs are on the line.

1. Market Volatility: U.S economic data, the coming election, and the Fed means the next week and a half of trading in the global markets are going to be packed with violent firework displays. Day traders who do not have experience should watch from afar, because the coming price action can cause fast losses for those caught on the wrong side. Trading sentiment is fragile, this is evident via the choppy results seen in equities, Forex, many commodities, and rising U.S Treasury yields. Over stating the obvious for the moment about risk management is a public service.

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Top Ten Miscellaneous Slogans for the 21st of October

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Top Ten Miscellaneous Slogans for the 21st of October

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10. Evil Empires: The Yankees and Dodgers will square off in the World Series with their ultra expensive rosters competing for the championship. Maybe this is exactly what the U.S needs so people can take their minds off of U.S election concerns. A contest between Los Angeles and New York is a big selling card. TV ratings should soar as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Aaron Judge battle for the supremacy of baseball.

9. Vision: SpaceX achieved magical results as a Falcon 9 rocket booster was caught by ‘chopsticks’ as planned for and engineered. Elon Musk proved again that his preposterous ramblings are frequently correct. SpaceX is in a solid position to provide logistics for outer space exploration and development, but to also create new business endeavors as it evolves. The implied value of SpaceX mid-2024 was estimated to be around 200 billion USD.

8. 2017: Bitcoin was around 1,000.00 USD in January of 2017. The price of the digital asset is now approximately 68,500. The perception and betting that a Trump victory may be putting a spring in the step of the cryptocurrency market is intriguing. Bitcoin trades based on behavioral sentiment and not intrinsic value. Trump has spoken about crypto favorably time to time. A more welcoming SEC and CFTC regarding crypto could help values. For those looking for further correlation to BTC/USD and Trump, when he left office in January of 2021, Bitcoin was near 31,000 USD.

7. Downturn: Environmental, social and governance investing has taken a hit compared to results from the past couple of years as outflows from investment vehicles led by the likes of BlackRock and others make noise. ESG has lost its luster as the race for superior profits has run into headwinds and analysts question values and revenues. What will happen over the next few years, particularly if ESG investing finds that it has fewer friends in the U.S halls of power?

6. Data: U.S economic statistics will be rather lacking this week, the highlight may be the Flash Manufacturing PMI numbers on Thursday. Some may try to make the weekly Unemployment Claims a spectacle too, particularly brokers who may be trying to entice day traders into Forex positions. However, the rather calm seas regarding data will turn tumultuous next week because U.S Advance GDP, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, and the Non-Farm Employment Change results are all on the schedule.

5. Underwater: WTI Crude Oil started to flirt with the 70.00 USD mark last Tuesday, and after a few days of remaining within a rather tight range, support was proven vulnerable. As of this writing WTI is near 69.65. The lack of an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure by Israel has seemingly calmed the energy sector. Fearmongering and bombastic rhetoric have not caused WTI Crude Oil to sustain highs. The commodity is within the lower elements of its long-term price range technically.

4. 24 Carat: Record values in gold are being traversed. As of this writing the precious metal is near 2,734.00 per ounce. Gold was around 1,200.00 USD in January of 2017. Inflation, speculation and concerns about central banks are likely helping gold shine. Some may say the rise in value is a derivative of safe haven investing. Day traders may view the price as speculatively high and dangerous because of its intraday volatility, but long-term gold bugs know the historical track record of the precious metal and its ability to preserve wealth.

3. FX: Major currencies paired against the USD are finding increasingly choppy waters near-term. The USD/JPY is dangerously close to the 150.000 mark, the USD/MXN is within sight of 20.00000, and the GBP/USD is hovering above 1.30000. The EUR/USD is battling too and scuffling below the 1.09000 ratio. With no major data coming this week, but major risk events approaching on the horizon, now is the time for Forex traders to remain cautious and not get too ambitious. Forex may provide technical traders with the ability to wager on perceived support and resistance near-term. But soon, a huge wave of volatility is going to hit currency speculation and financial institutions are certainly getting prepared for the storm.

2. Tick Tock: The U.S election is only a bit more than two weeks away. This may be the last week for any huge surprises which could sway the decisions of voters. Harris and Trump and campaigning hard and receiving intense media coverage. Early voting is underway, but November the 5th is the date everyone is focused on. When the clock strikes November the 6th in the U.S, global investors will react.

1. Behavioral sentiment: Key market barometers will continue to get plenty of attention in the coming days. U.S indices serve as a heat check regarding the potential outcome of the U.S election. Equities are near highs and this seems to be a rather solid indication risk appetite remains the dominant feature. While some will not want to hear it, this likely means many folks in the investment world are starting to believe Donald Trump might win the U.S election.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Salvos for the 29th of September

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Salvos for the 29th of September

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10. Profit: OpenAI has announced plans to become a money making corporation. Founded in 2015 the artificial intelligence company had the stated goal of creating ‘safe and beneficial’ technologies via its foundation, and now will face the slings and arrows of investors and potential critics. The AI boom the past two years has produced many new competitors. Can Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, sustain the momentum generated or will negative organizational impetus turn the company into an also-ran?

9. Softs: Cocoa, Coffee and Sugar all remain volatile and playgrounds for day traders who like casino experiences via CFDs. Cocoa is again over 9,000 USD, Sugar touched February highs this past week as it shows signs of extreme speculation, and Coffee Arabica surged to record prices on Thursday and Friday. Over exuberance however is not being created by day traders, it is the work of large institutional traders who are in control. While the ‘softs’ may look overbought it would be unwise to bet against trends while big players pursue bullish notions. Massive money is being made in these commodities, but losses are also being felt by those who wager incorrectly.

8. Escalation: Risks in the Middle East have become a focal point, this as the region appears to have generated more must watch television. The noise which the media seemingly craves is hard to escape. Market participants cannot be blamed for maintaining vigilance as sabers rattle, especially after Friday’s events in Beirut when Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, was eliminated by Israel. However, experienced traders who are also strategic analysts have seen this show before and may turn the channel knowing there will be reruns in the future.

7. WTI Crude Oil: Prices closed within the lower elements of the commodity’s long-term depths. Traders did have a chance to react to Friday’s developing news from Beirut, but the energy sector remained calm. The price of WTI was around 68.57 going into this weekend, after trading at highs earlier in the week. For all the talk about fear of escalation from the Middle East, the price of Crude Oil remains within a remarkable bearish stance as large traders appear to be more concerned about lackluster economic growth globally.

6. Apex Gold: The price of the precious metal flirted with 2,685.00 momentarily on Thursday. The price of gold going into this weekend finished near 2,658.00 USD. Sustained highs have certainly continued to catch the attention of short-term speculators, but they need to be aware the commodity does remain susceptible to sudden spikes. While alluring, gold remains dangerous for day traders.

5. Countdown: The U.S Presidential vote is slightly more than 5 weeks away. Interestingly, the Fed will announce their Federal Funds Rate decision only two days after the election results. Will the outcome of the vote change the Fed’s perspective on interest rates? Financial institutions will definitely brace for the outcome of the U.S vote. Cautious winds will start to prevail as the 5th of November draws closer.

4. China: A huge stimulus package from the Chinese government has been initiated, but talk regarding potential effects and outcomes are being debated. The notion that the Chinese economy is be driven too much with a top to down centralized approach is being vocalized by some worried ‘outside’ observers. The USD/CNY is trading near 7.0105. The Shanghai Composite is near 3,087, this after massive gains via a reversal upwards which was sparked from lows around 2,691 which were seen on the 18th of September.

3. Risk Appetite: U.S equity indices continue to challenge record values in the Dow 30 and S&P 500. Yes, the Nasdaq remains beneath its highs, but is still within sight of all-time heights. Trading this week will work under the shadow of the jobs numbers coming this Friday. Financial institutions have produced rather positive behavioral sentiment and do not seem like they are ready to back away from this stance. Are some large market participants starting to quietly bet on the possibility of a Trump victory which they believe would be good for U.S stocks?

2. Forex: USD centric notions remain the impetus in foreign exchange. The USD Cash Index is within the lower boundaries of its long-term values as it trades near July 2023 realms. If the USD Cash Index moves lower it would then start to technically be within price calculations not seen since the spring of 2022. Action in the USD/JPY and GBP/USD, and other major currency pairs have been volatile, choppy conditions should be expected this week for traders leading into Friday’s key data.

1. Jobs Numbers: Last week’s GDP statistics met expectations, while inflation numbers via the Core PCE Price Index came in slightly below estimates. The growth and inflation outcomes set the table for the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings which will be reported on the 4th of October. If the employment numbers continue to trend lower and there are additional negative revisions this coming Friday, this could propel USD selling. Financial institutions are trying to figure out if the Fed will cut by 0.25% or 0.50% in November. The Fed was aggressively dovish when they cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% on the 18th of September, but the U.S central bank might want to be cautious in November following the election and wait for all the dust to settle and cut by only 0.25%. Thus allowing for another interest rate cut in early 2025 if needed. The broad markets are in a reflexive mode for the time being, this Friday’s data will be important and cause an immediate reaction that day traders will notice.

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Risk Appetite: Forex and Equities and Cautious Optimism

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Risk Appetite: Forex and Equities and Cautious Optimism

Day traders can clearly see that risk appetite has taken hold of behavioral sentiment early this week. USD centric price action has created highs for the British Pound, South African Rand, Singapore Dollar and a host of other major currencies paired against the USD. Yesterday’s poor showing via the CB Consumer Confidence reading in the U.S poured additional fire onto the notion the U.S economy is not doing as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed last week, which means caution should be used when looking at the broad markets. Speculators who only make short-term wagers cannot let blind optimism be the guiding light.

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USD/SGD Three Month Chart as of 25th Sept. 2024

While today will be thin with economic data, Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product results could prove to be another ignition switch for market impetus. The quarterly Final GDP result is widely expected by analysts to produce a gain of 3.0%. The Final GDP Price Index statistics are anticipated to show a 2.5% ratio. If the growth and inflation numbers miss their marks this could set off a momentary storm in the markets. A good example of trading that has already been baked into the cake regarding values and mid-term outlook is the USD/JPY, which while maintaining its bearish stance has clearly found a price realm financial institutions are now maneuvering carefully within as equilibrium is battled.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 25th Sept. 2024

Yet, many financial institutions have clearly leaned further into their optimistic stances particularly via the U.S major equity indices and day traders are likely trying to follow the momentum being generated. Yes, New Home Sales will be published in the U.S today, but these numbers carry a lot of complex considerations which analysts tend to dissect in a myriad of ways, meaning that while they will get some attention, the largest players will stay focused on tomorrow’s growth and inflation data coming via the U.S GDP outcomes.

USD/ZAR Three Month Chart as of 25th Sept. 2024

Forex traders should keep an eye on U.S Treasury yields, yesterday’s slight climbs early in they day were mostly met by reversals lower later on. There is also the knowledge that the yields are traversing long-term depths and there is an assumption they don’t appear ready to see a large shift in momentum. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut the Federal Funds Rate again in November by another 0.25%. Numbers via reports like tomorrow’s GDP statistics, and Friday’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will shake existing behavioral sentiment and the Fed’s outlook. The Core PCE number has an estimate of 0.2% per its monthly reading, the last three reports have met expectations.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 25th Sept. 2024

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak tomorrow at the U.S Treasury Markets Conference in New York, but his remarks will have been pre-recorded and presented via video. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will also speak afterwards at the meeting. However, their thinking is widely known and they are expected to sound rather tame. It also needs to be added that both Powell and Yellen are fully aware the U.S Presidential election is approaching. Neither one of them is going to risk saying something that can be interpreted as economically defiant.

Traders should expect the potential of volatility developing tomorrow as financial institutions and larger market participants position for the GDP reports, but if the numbers are within sight of expectations, it is likely current price equilibriums will continue to reflect current risk appetite dynamics. Proper risk management and the use of conservative leverage should be fully practiced. Retail traders should also begin to start considering that Non-Farm Employment Change data that will come from the U.S on Friday, October the 4th. The jobs numbers next week could pose a significant threat.

The Fed last week made it clear they believe there was reason to lower the Federal Funds Rate (while playing catch up) and there is the potential to enact further dovish actions in the months ahead. However, Jerome Powell also insisted – paraphrasing – the U.S economy is rather strong and added this is being reflected in solid growth statistics and a jobs market which may be weaker but remains stable.

Given the Fed’s propensity for a conservative approach, they have crawled out a rather precarious limb regarding their rather positive attitude. The coming economic data will certainly be noteworthy tomorrow and Friday, and via next week’s job numbers. Will optimistic equilibrium in Forex prevail over the next week? The major currency pairs will certainly be tested.

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Has a Great Selloff Begun? The Fed Holds a Crucial Card

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Has a Great Selloff Begun? The Fed Holds a Crucial Card

Once upon a time the Federal Reserve caused a massive amount of fear to simmer and then boil over in the global market place but this is no fairy tale, the date was the 5th of August 2024 to be exact. However, the trigger causing events to unfold was pulled on Thursday the 31st of July. The Bank of Japan increased their policy rate to 0.25%, which was an increase of 0.15%. Then later on the same day the U.S Fed published a cautious sounding FOMC Statement followed by an inconclusive Press Conference, which left investors scratching their heads.

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Nikkei 225 Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

Markets started to react with scorn on Friday the the 1st of August, particularly when the U.S jobs numbers showed a big miss with the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, and also a lower than anticipated Average Hourly Earnings report was produced. Because Japan was essentially closed for equity trading when the U.S jobs data was released late on Friday, the Nikkei 225 responded with fury on the 5th of August. Global markets essentially crumbled over the next twelve hours as a massive selloff was sparked.

Some analysts noted the move lower in equity indices was an overreaction and the wild Forex trading would calm down, and this began quite predictably on the 6th of August. In essence the bad jobs numbers from the U.S proved the Federal Reserve was being too cautious and would need to begin sounding more aggressive regarding interest rate cuts. This dynamic played out when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made his Jackson Hole Symposium speech on the 23rd of August and admitted the Fed would have to begin cutting interest rates – and he seemed to indicate the use of a plural regarding Federal Funds Rate cuts. This dynamic essentially confirmed what most financial institutions had bet on starting in late July via Forex. Equity indices which were able to recover plenty of lost ground after the 5th of August, also built up more momentum per Powell’s rhetoric at Jackson Hole.

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USD Cash Index Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

However, Powell while sounding more dovish did not say how much the Fed would cut by in September. And based on the history of the Fed’s rather cautious and very passive monetary policy over the past handful of years, many financial institutions likely felt a cautious outlook should include a 0.25% cut on the 18th of September and then another 0.25% move lower in November. In the last week of August – yes, last week – equity markets started to show signs of nervousness again and the USD began to produce choppy trading before going into the Labor Day holiday.

Yesterday’s large selloff in assets has sparked more worries. While it is clear U.S inflation data has shown signs of erosion, the Federal Reserve has not indicated in any form that a Federal Funds Rate cut of more than 0.25% should be expected in two weeks. And perhaps not so coincidentally, the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings data will be published this Friday. The outcome of these two reports will shake the ground for investors and financial institutions may be positioning for the drama.

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Nvidia Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

An interesting three month barometer looking backwards has been created by Nvidia which has been choppy. While it remains only a ‘stock’, the company’s earnings and outlook are firmly on center stage for many investors. Nvidia has soared in value the past year. While some may feel that the asset is within a bubble, the company continues to post impressive earnings and its outlook appears bright as new software and hardware relies upon its products and development promises. Some analysts have said that earnings reports from Nvidia are now just as important as U.S economic data like inflation and jobs numbers. However, that is overstated, but let there be no doubt that Nvidia’s trading results over the next six months will probably tell us a lot about global market conditions and behavioral sentiment within financial institutions.

Day traders should not panic, they have the capability of watching from the sidelines if they choose over the next few days. The USD is still standing on weaker legs and Gold remains near 2,500.00 USD. Investors who have long-term holdings will certainly be nervous and want to make sure their mid-term yield perspectives are alright and their long-term targets are safe. Speculators small and large know the Fed will definitely cut the Federal Funds Rate in September. Yet, the trillion dollar question is if the Fed will only cut by 0.25%?

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

If the U.S jobs numbers this Friday come in below anticipated results once again, the Fed should strongly consider a 0.50% basis cut to the Federal Funds Rate on the 18th, that is what financial institutions would certainly like to see. They should also consider coming out with a brief statement this Friday to make sure investors know that a more aggressive stance will be taken if the jobs numbers are weak. However, as long time day traders and investors know, it is not in the Fed’s nature to grab the microphone loudly, unless a seismic event is taking place in the world and inflicting harm on the financial markets. Are investors now trying to warn the U.S Federal Reserve that they will ignite a major selloff unless the Fed becomes more aggressive?

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Postings for the 5th of April 2024

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10. Petrichor: The pleasant smell after a rain has fallen following a long dry spell which elicits earth’s fragrance. The Fed is likely hoping for this sensation via ‘weaker’ Non-Farm Employment Change numbers today. In December the Federal Reserve spoke about data signals needed in order to cut interest rates. If jobs statistics are stronger than anticipated, there will be no ‘petrichor’ for the Fed.

9. Underreported: Five engineers from China on their way to work for the Dasu dam project they participated, were killed in a ‘suicide’ terrorist attack in Pakistan on the 26th of March. Terror attacks in Pakistan on Chinese involved with infrastructure ‘Economic Corridor’ work have been increasing.

8. Qubits: Microsoft and Quantinuum recently announced they have made breakthroughs regarding quantum computing research reliability. Results have shown 14,000 ‘test routines’ without errors. The emergence of quantum technology approaches.

7. Intrinsic Value: Cocoa is near 9640.0 USD per metric ton as of this morning and remains speculatively energetic. Bitcoin is slightly below 67,000 USD and continues to ‘beat’ the notion that intrinsic value is important.

6. Precious: Gold prices have ‘fallen’ below 2300.00 USD per ounce, and is near 2289.00 for the moment, but the metal is shining as crowds admire its ability to create a safe haven.

5. WTI Crude Oil: Middle East news is rumbling and hyperbole is resonating, the price of the commodity is over 86.40 USD per this writing. A calm weekend, and peaceful end to Ramadan this coming Tuesday might help calm nerves. Higher oil prices will not help global inflation.

4. Forex: The USD/JPY has started to experience waves of volatility and has recently challenged long-term highs. Bottom line is the notion that large players are positioning for today’s U.S data which will affect all financial assets as USD centric power resounds.

3. Equities: The U.S major stock indices are beginning their day near lows not seen since the 15th of March for the Dow 30, and the 19th of March for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Nervous?

2. Bonds Watch: U.S Treasuries need to be monitored as the 5, 7, and 10-Years Notes respond to nervous investors and fears of a new ‘inversion’. Having come off of high yields a couple of days ago, doesn’t mean all is well as values languish near late September 2023 technical realms.

1. Data: Recent chatter from many Fed FOMC members have created anxious investors. Vivid reactions will occur after the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings. Bluntly, today’s jobs reports are crucial and the Fed would like the results to be weaker than anticipated in order to consider cutting interest rates. However, if hiring comes in stronger, it would be a sign of a resilient U.S economy and would ignite more USD strength. The first half hour following the jobs numbers may look counter-intuitive regarding price action as financial institutions adjust their trading positions.