Gold 20260622

Gold: Intriguing Technical Support and Curious Sentiment Shift

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured HighlightsFederal Reserve, Interest RatesInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsUncategorized

Mid-Term Technical Support and Lower Price Make Gold Interesting

Gold has faced difficult speculative circumstances for traders with a bullish perspective since early February, this as the price of the commodity has fallen from highs. The price of the commodity is around $4,5220.00 for the moment, with its typical fast price action flourishing. Importantly, the precious metal is also traversing slightly above rather intriguing technical support when a mid-term perspective is used.

On the 29th of January Gold challenged the $5,600.00 vicinity, this as metal commodities soared including Silver and Platinum. Silver in late January touched the $120.00+ mark, Platinum in the last week of that month hit and penetrated $2800.00. Silver as of this morning is near $75.00 and Platinum is around $1937.00. The speculative momentum that drove the metals higher had a lot to do with fever pitched buying as large players feasted and smaller retail traders tried to ride the upwards wave.

Gold 20260622

Gold One Year Chart as of 22nd May 2026

Silver, Platinum and Gold Lost Their Appeal

For the moment it appears hedge funds have turned their attention away from the metals as a speculative playground. Fast profits are likely coming from other arenas, WTI Crude Oil and other energy resources are big betting areas as the Iranian situation remains at the forefront of attention.

Since the start of the military escalation in Iran all three metals have essentially lost value. Silver was around $94.00, Platinum close to $2,370 and Gold near $5,280.00 on the 27th of February. The price of WTI Crude Oil is trading with the $100.00 level acting as a technical magnet now, on the 27th of February WTI was near $67.00. It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out where all of the price action has moved to as folks trading Crude Oil are certainly getting their kicks and maybe even profiting as they take advantage of support and resistance levels as rhetoric and saber-rattling flares about Iran.

Buying Gold with a Mid-Term Outlook

However, as Gold swims near the $4,522.00 mark it raises curious questions regarding its current value and how sentiment may develop within the precious metal over the mid-term. Putting to the side Silver and Platinum, Gold is intriguing because the specter of inflation is causing nervousness. The U.S Federal Reserve is now in a position in which it may have to start increasing the Federal Funds Rate again. 

President Trump wants lower borrowing costs, but because of the escalation in fuel costs effecting manufacturing, logistics and agricultural are all suffering. It will be hard for the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to simply wave off rising prices in the U.S as a short-term murmur. The mid-term now appears capable of sustaining inflationary winds. Gold may start to receive attention from investors again who are not looking to speculate on the precious metal, but to hold the commodity as a hedge.

  • Day traders as always will face intraday volatility with Gold if they are trying to capture a reversal higher.
  • However, if investors start to believe Gold needs to be looked at again via portfolio accumulation, and hedge funds make it a speculative party, the precious metal may start to see not only more attention but a buying surge develop again over the mid-term.
  • Gold around the $4,500.00 mark looks relatively secure as an investment plateau for folks looking for a long-term buying opportunity.
  • Day traders may start thinking about trying to take advantage of potential incremental shifts that might start to develop in Gold to the upside in the near-term and coming weeks.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles and Missives for the 29th of March, 2026

by with No Comment AssetsBasketballBehavioral SentimentBusinessEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingRisk Management

The Iranian War Dominates our Lack of Humor

10. Final Four: The Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship will be set after today’s games. The Arizona Wildcats, our pick, advanced to the Final 4 by beating Purdue last night. Michigan is favored to beat Tennessee and the Duke vs. UConn game is anticipated to be close. The University of Illinois advanced by beating Iowa on Saturday and maybe the biggest underdog – if the Volunteers lose to the Wolverines today.

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AMT Top Ten for the 29th of March 2026

9. Jobs Data: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published during a banking holiday on the 3rd of April, this as the Iranian war shadows investment sentiment. Will potential jobs numbers results create nervousness on Thursday, and side effects Monday the 6th of April? 

8. Private Equity: Outflows remain a problem for BlackRock and other firms as deal making comes under a bright light. Investors are questioning valuations, lack of exits and money that sits in ‘zombie’ funds. Imposed limits on redemptions by some firms have created nervous indicators. Is the private equity problem correlated to lackluster momentum on Wall Street, this as desire for the next big thing runs out of marketing hyperbole?

7. 10-Y Notes: U.S 10-Year Treasury yields finished the week near 4.43%, Friday’s price action saw an apex around the 4.48% vicinity, highlighting nervousness. On Friday the 27th of February 10-Y yields were close to 3.94%,

6. Forex: USD/JPY ended this past Friday around 160.250, making it cheaper for tourists to visit Japan as cherry blossom season starts this week and lasts into early May. However, the Bank of Japan and Japanese citizens are not amused by the weakening Yen. USD centric strength continues to resonate loudly. 

5. Fed: Potential drama surrounding the U.S central bank and the replacement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has taken a backseat to the Middle East conflict. Concerns about inflation are legitimate. The Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to defend an interest rate cut in the mid-term.

4. President Trump: Speaking from both sides of his mouth (and his opponents might say another area of the body) may be strategic genius from the White House regarding Iran or prove to be a lack of focus. However, it certainly keeps everyone guessing what is going to happen next in the Middle East.

3. $100.00: WTI Crude Oil prices have remained below the one-hundred level for the most part during the Iranian war, yes – there have been outliers above. Will we begin to see sustained prices above the century mark this week? Short-term reactions to the U.S military potentially seizing Iran’s Kharg island would certainly cause price chaos, but could it also soothe some large players in the energy sector via mid-term outlooks? 

2. Good Friday: The holiday at the end of this week will be effected by anxious behavioral sentiment. The potential of a long weekend with plenty of noisy chatter could make for nervous investors this coming Thursday as they position themselves ahead of possible escalating storms.

1. Fear: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have entered corrective depths. Who will be brave enough to start looking for bottoms as the Iranian war rages with no end in sight? Will a reversal upwards emerge this week?

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postN87

AMT Top Ten Thoughts and Trepidations for the 22nd of March, 2026

by with No Comment AMT Top TenAssetsBasketballBehavioral SentimentCommoditiesEquitiesFeatured HighlightsFinancial InstitutionsInvestingRisk ManagementSpeculatorsWorld

The Return of AMT's Top 10 Illustrious 'Weekly' Salvos

First we must congratulate those who were willing to climb out from under their rocks (and bomb shelters) to offer musings. But let’s not digress….. to the AMT Top Ten List we go.

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AMT Top Ten for the 22nd of March 2026

10. March Madness: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship is underway. Some of the more hated schools remain catalysts. Our pick, the University of Arizona Wildcats. 

9. Bitcoin: Traversing above 68,000.00 USD currently almost feels like an accomplishment considering BTC/USD was near 63,000.00 in early February and again in early March. But do not blink your eyes. BTW, MSTR (the much loathed MicroStrategy by some AMT folks) went into this weekend below $136.00 per share.

8. South Africa: The USD/ZAR finished Friday near 16.96800 depending on bids and asks. On the 29th of January the currency pair was close to 15.65000. The South African Rand has done well over the long-term, but it is correlating to the broad Forex market concerns. Day traders should not take things personally, and accept that risk adverse moves – particularly as a major war rages is part of speculation. Near-term viewpoints can differ with long-term prospects. 

7. Not Glimmering: Gold at the start of the Iranian war was around $5,260.00, it has fallen to a mark of $4,491.00 this weekend. Showing gold’s speculative momentum beforehand hand, outmatched current values. Where next?

6. Silver: Above 120.00 USD briefly towards the end of January, the commodity is below 68.00. Wild betting has caused a drop of more than 42%. Too much exuberance.

5. Risks: U.S 10-Year Treasury Yields were below 3.95% on the 27th of February, via Friday’s close rates are above 4.38%. Can you spell f.e.a.r?

4. Safe Haven: The U.S Dollar Index which had been showing solid downside is near 99.500, on the 27th of February it was around 97.850 – a rather legitimate rise. 100.000 may be a target by some large players.

3. Shrieking Hyperbole: WTI Crude Oil prices are certainly getting plenty of attention. However, voices expressing concern about WTI touching higher values starts to sound like an auction in order to get attention for the circus barkers. WTI remains near 100.00 USD and this mark is a barometer. The price is high and it can go higher, but expressed fear about $140.00 and $200.00 should be treated with disdain in the near-term.

2. Iran War: The conflict in the Middle East cannot be downplayed, but it can become fearmongering by Cassandras’. The U.A.E is still open for business and other nations in the Middle East are functioning. Yes, there is noise and the situation can grow more dangerous. But the potential of freedom for the people of Iran is a solid goal, though some may find this naive until it is proven. Can it become fact?

1. Coming Attractions: U.S stock markets are rightfully nervous. Friday’s close for the S&P 500 has brought it into terrain that challenges its 200 day moving average. The combination of weak technical attitudes and behavioral sentiment is a dangerous mix. Risk management may not be enough for day traders to survive current conditions, sitting on the sideline instead of betting on equity indices intraday may be more efficient and less lethal.

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India and the U.S Govt Shutdown: Quick Market Thoughts

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

India and the U.S Govt Shutdown: Quick Market Thoughts

President Trump has been ramping up his claims that India is no longer going to buy Russian oil, he made a statement regarding this belief yesterday once again. As the White House threatened to initiate tougher sanctions against India, there seems to have been some movement towards a reconciliation between the two powerful nations.

The Trump administration is clearly trying to limit the amount of purchases of Russian oil by India to increase economic pressures on Russia, and reportedly India may be starting to actually buy less oil. India has certainly not stopped buying Russian oil in a maximum ‘fait accompli’, but if the nation continues to show a willingness to purchase less energy resources from Russia, this will go a long way in preserving a good U.S and India association. A stronger relationship between the U.S and India can achieve a vital economic and military correlation for the both nations. Improved friendlier tones from New Delhi and Washington D.C appear to have reassured investors in the Indian equity markets via highs currently being seen on Nifty 50, which are now within sight of apex values from late September last year.

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Nifty 50 One Year Chart as of 23rd October 2025

India is a vital and important part of U.S policy as it attempts to also create pressure on China too. By maintaining political and business dealings with India, the U.S can and should look upon this joint relationship as a vast long-term strategic interest. India understands this as well. The ability of India and the U.S to remain ‘friendly’ allies, and the prospect of creating a vigorous economic and military partnership should be one of the U.S government’s essential missions.

India does have strong connections to Russia the past handful of decades politically and economically via its non-aligned status. India will certainly maintain its dialogue and sometimes cooperative dealings with Russia. However, if India and the U.S maintain a solid relationship with the prospect of increasing their economic and political ties this could substantially change dynamics on the Asian continent.

U.S Government Shutdown Since the 1st of October

The U.S government has now been shutdown for over three weeks as Republicans and Democrats remain stubborn about compromise. Both sides have made the shutdown a political game. While each party claims they are doing what is best for the nation and preach to their collective voting bases, the stalemate could start to have uglier effects regarding wages not paid for many U.S employees on the 1st of November.

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Dow Jones 30 One Year Chart as of 23rd October 2025

A lack of government salaries not being dispersed will cause an economic hit via consumer spending and create at a minimum some temporary damage for GDP numbers. Remarkably, and to be clear about this potential impact, Wall Street hasn’t seemed to care yet, but this could start to change. As the U.S economy rumbles powerfully forward without a major downturn in the major equity indices, politicians appear to be comfortable acting like spoiled children on both sides of the aisles engaged in accusing the other side of misdeeds.

Likely to start changing attitudes among Republicans and Democrats in the next two weeks are the coming Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement during the end of October, and voting results via key political races in the first week of November.

Wall Street wants clarity regarding interest rate outlooks for November, December and early next year. Investors might not get a clear picture from the Fed next week, taking into consideration the Federal Reserve will not have up to date official U.S economic data because of the government shutdown. Meaning the Fed will likely issue a 25 basis point rate cut on the 29th of October and say it is uncertain about the coming few months because it does not have enough inflation, employment and GDP information to form a concrete opinion. The joke of coarse being the Fed seldom seems to have a strong opinion, but now can use the government shutdown as an excuse.

And now for contemplation, let’s look at the election in NYC for Mayor. A bona fide socialist may get elected in New York City who carries the historically misguided and dangerous wisdom of a Marxist. The economic and social practices of Marxism have proven utter failures for over one hundred years consistently. If NYC suffers a victory from the socialist candidate running as a Democrat, Wall Street and many financial institutions based in the city will not react favorably.

In the meantime, U.S equity indices remain elevated, cautious and within sight of record highs. The Nasdaq, Dow Jones and S&P along with other financial assets are producing choppy dangerous conditions for day traders who are attempting to wager on daily changes and suffering from the cautious behavioral sentiment being generated. Investors who look towards the mid and long-term are likely more comfortable, but are certainly keeping an eye on what is going to transpire over the next two weeks. Gold and Silver have come off their speculative highs. Forex continues to create volatile conditions as financial institutions appear unready to make bold predictions about what the Federal Reserve will do into January 2026.
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Forex: Tomorrow is Known, October and Beyond are Uncertain

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Forex: Tomorrow is Known, October and Beyond are Uncertain

The U.S Federal Reserve will cut its Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points tomorrow. The big question all financial institutions would like some clarity about is whether the U.S Central Bank will strongly suggest that another cut of 25 basis points will need to take place in late October during the next FOMC meeting.

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EUR/USD One Year Chart as of 16th September 2025

Forex has certainly seen the USD weaken because a definitive interest rate cut has already been factored into mid-term outlooks. Those who are betting on a 50 basis point cut tomorrow are spitting into the wind and most likely wrong. The Fed under Jerome Powell has proven time and again that it is cautious. The word uncertainly is likely to be heard on Wednesday, even as the Fed Chairman admits conditions warrant cutting interest rates further.

And this is where it will get tricky for day traders betting on conditions beyond tomorrow. Since the quarter of a point cut has been factored into Forex already, and the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and even the USD/JPY are bouncing up against technical inflection ratios for the time being, powerful reactions and dangers will ignite based on the perceptions generated about late October outlook. It is likely some large financial institutions have already priced a rate cut of 25 basis points into the USD already for their October outlooks, meaning some big houses have accounted for a 50 basis point cut mid-term.

It is probable some larger firms have remained conservative, and have not leaned into overly confident cash forward contracts for their corporate clients. This because they want to be certain the Fed is definitely setting the table for another interest rate cut in October.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 16th of September 2025

Nothing is guaranteed and Fed Chairman Powell is likely to state this obvious point tomorrow. However, he may have to admit the jobs market looks weak. And he may have to also acknowledge, that although he and other FOMC members remain concerned about the threat of inflation, that for the moment it remains somewhat tame. This is where a secret ingredient in Forex trading tomorrow may fuel volatility. Inflation fears telltale signal is being seen in the current price of Gold which is within record territory and sight of $3,700.00 as of this writing, this even as the 10-Year U.S Treasury yields have decreased.

As a critic of the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to cutting interest rates the past half year, I have to acknowledge that it is important that the Fed remains nimble, they cannot simply give into pressures from political circles. However and unfortunately, the Fed has been anything but nimble the past six months. The Fed should have cut interest rates by 50 basis points in total in the late spring and early summer, they did not. Now they are once again behind the proverbial curve and in a position in which they are being forced to be reactive instead of proactive.


Again the Fed has at its disposal high tech quantified data via its distinct Fed Districts to know the economic landscape and react at a quicker pace. It chooses not to do this efficiently, this was a feature of the Fed’s inability to accept that inflation was a danger almost four years ago and its snail like reaction which caused economic harm. Now the Fed finds itself in a position in which it should be admitting that it should have been cutting interest rates six months ago, while also knowing logically storm clouds are on the horizon regarding murky economic outlooks due to the threat of inflation actually increasing in the mid-term. Justification for a nimble Federal Reserve remains a pragmatic desire.

Here’s the thing, the Federal Reserve is going to cut the Funds Rate by 25 basis points tomorrow and say they are considering another cut in October. The Fed will probably also say after another cut in October, that they anticipate taking a way and see approach into the end of this calendar year.

Regarding the potential reactions of the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY tomorrow and into Thursday, volatility needs to be expected. The consolidation we have seen develop the past few days near important levels that seemingly are holding back large value moves will vanish for day traders. Small retail speculators in Forex need to understand what they view as massive moves are often considered simple small mathematical gyrations by financial institutions which are not only participating in the cash forward business via FX rates, but also taking part in hedging via futures trading through the likes of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and other venues.

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USD/JPY One Year Chart as of 16th September 2025

It needs to be noted the Bank of England will release its Official Bank Rate on Thursday along with its Monetary Policy Summary. And the Bank of Japan will issue its Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement on Friday. The BoE is not expected to change its borrowing rates on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan is expected to stand in place too. It should be pointed out that the Bank of Japan does have room to increase its borrowing costs, but the government of Japan appears to be married to maintaining a weaker Japanese Yen, much to the chagrin of some economists.

If the Fed admits they need to likely cut interest rates again in October this might spur on some USD weakness and create volatile conditions tomorrow and Thursday. However, if the Fed offers the phrase that they will take a wait and see approach after October, until further economic data can be accessed in November and December, then the USD may start to show signs of firming. The Fed’s interest rate is 4.50% today, by the end of Wednesday it should be at 4.25% with signs that by the end of October it will be 4.00%. Looking for more than those clues is speculative, financial institutions want answers like everyone else.

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Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

The EUR/USD is near 1.15650 early this morning. The USD/JPY around 147.850. Forex has provided fast reversals and most major currency pairs are within well established known realms, but caution prevails. Friday’s U.S jobs numbers before going into weekend provided additional mud to filter through for those seeking clear outlooks. Were the employment numbers rigged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

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EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 4th August 2025

Questionable economic statistics have become an open sore spot for some analysts in the U.S, this has been a problem since the financial crisis of 2007/08 and ensuing years when politically expedient numbers were rumored to be in use so the Federal Reserve and U.S Treasury could work in a more comfortable manner. Let’s just say there are actual reasons why and how economic statistics could be used to hurt and help policies. For some evidence take a look at the art of revisions that has been practiced with key economic data the past handful of years. Financial institutions now need to consider the possibility that numbers cannot be trusted, interpret reports, try to decipher reality and consider impact.

Effect on the Federal Reserve is a big question. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continues to preach uncertainty and say a wait and see approach is needed because of implications regarding tariffs. However, conspiracy theories are also somewhat blown out of the water regarding the recent jobs numbers, because the lackluster results will actually put pressure on the Fed to cut rates in September in order to help spur on a better jobs market. So in other words, financial institutions, big investors and day traders are back to square one.

The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index stats will be published tomorrow for the U.S, but this report is likely to be a mere ingredient that affects the marketplace. Behavioral sentiment will remain the cornerstone in Forex, equity indices, Treasuries and commodities. August is typically a rather calm month of trading taking into consideration that holidays are being taken by many market participants, but as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Dow 30 remain elevated and capable of achieving new record highs, the USD creates chaos regarding outlook influenced by a Federal Reserve that is now in a difficult spot, and tariff implications are contemplated it would be wise to keep an eye on all near-term outcomes.

Technical trading and computer generated algos will factor into conditions as psychological levels are challenged and perceptions are debated. Has the global marketplace grown comfortable to the tactics used by President Trump? While it is easy to say yes, there are still plenty of reasons to remain concerned, this because White House policy seemingly has the ability to shift without notice.

Which has helped produce what may be the golden rule that develops under the current circumstances. Stay alert, stay optimistic but practice caution. Financial institutions have always practiced the art of realpolitik behind closed doors to chase profits, but they must remain vigilant to fast reactions caused from the potential sudden fear of shifting doctrine. President Trump’s rather swirling mix of laissez faire enterprise, and his stark ability to express anger at those who stand in his way or disagree with him do make for a new trading reality. Cautious optimism is likely to rule the world of investment and speculation going forward.

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Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

Everyone wants to know what will happen in the future in the financial world. Most everyone also knows that this is impossible. However, clarity about the mid-term is a legitimate focal point that financial institutions strive. Risk managers define their considerations on assorted perspectives depending on their backgrounds.

While some may like him and others clearly are are not fans, President Trump has a reputation for wanting to get things done. His calling card for a long time has been an ability to make business deals. President Trump however has put himself in a rather difficult position and the next two weeks may prove to be an important milestone. One in which those who like the President and those who don’t will be given more credence to debate.

The Federal Reserve will announce their FOMC decision on the 30th of July. Tariff deadlines will supposedly come on the 1st of August. President Trump has made it clear he does not like the lack of aggressiveness which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is displaying. Trump has called for the Federal Funds Rate to be cut and Powell has not acquiesced.

President Trump has openly spoken about trying to replace the Fed Chairman, but at this juncture the Trump White House knows this will be difficult unless they can prove Jerome Powell has done something maliciously. Not lowering the Federal Funds Rate because of a fear inflation will develop because of potential effects due to tariff fallout is a legitimate reason not to act. Even if the Fed Chairman is wrong, he appears to still be working on a basis which is based on an economic interpretation.

For the next two weeks the broad markets will hear about the Trump and Powell disagreement. It has been argued the Federal Reserve should have lowered the Federal Funds Rate a few months ago, clearly this was not done. However, the USD did trade with weaker sentiment in Forex from early April until the beginning of July. In the past few weeks the USD has garnered some strength, but remains within the lower part of its long-term realms via the U.S Dollar Cash Index. The weakness in the USD was likely due to financial institutions betting on rate cuts to come over the mid and long-term, and which they still believe will happen.

The upwards momentum generated recently by the USD has put the greenback in a position that seems to indicate financial institutions are transacting their cash forward orders cautiously for the moment, while waiting on the next round of impetus. And that is where Federal Reserve clarity and tariff threats now shadow mid-term outlooks.

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U.S Dollar Cash Index Five Year Chart as of 21st July 2025

We have entered an unpredictable window and President Trump apparently doesn’t mind allowing a little danger into the mindsets of the financial markets. It is one thing to proclaim tremendous results and great, magnificent prospects, but how long will investors tolerate a lack of clarity regarding tariff agreements? President Trump has postponed the tariff deadlines several times and what should be considered is the potential that at some point he will have to take action to prove he means business. If the August 1st deadline is extended again this may not cause much of a shock, but it will not be met with optimism.

Instead, the main interpretation from financial institutions may be that Trump is struggling to get agreements done as he had promised. While that might lead to the idea that global commerce will continue on as is, this will certainly not help create the positive impetus which President Trump desired. At some juncture President Trump may begin to be perceived as the little boy that cried wolf. No one will pay attention and the markets will proceed without him. But President Trump will not likely let that happen, he does like attention.

The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 are near record highs, so there isn’t a lot to complain about by index investors. The U.S economy has shown signs of green shoots regarding better retail sales and the recent Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The grey area for many remains inflation, which has been coming in rather well behaved although the most recent report showed a slightly higher outcome with the yearly CPI reading. However, the Federal Reserve actually has evidence that inflation has been tame. Yes, there are questions regarding the coming influence of tariffs on the U.S economy, but for the moment inflation has not risen.

The lack of clarity and not having a mid-term comfort level which is unperturbed may be problematic for small U.S business owners that face tariff concerns on their imported goods. And the bigger picture remains unclear for large U.S corporations – but they certainly continue to try being optimistic. And this is where it gets more dangerous, plenty of perspectives are being driven (inspired) by analysts who have confirmation bias. For instance the downturn in the USD from April until early July was amplified by many who saw this as a sign the USD was being punished by foreign governments opposed to President Trump. This in fact was highly unlikely, traders need to remain alert to false narratives.

The next two weeks need to be treated carefully. There will be a running monologue among many analysts that changes daily as behavioral sentiment moves depending on what is being spoken about the Federal Reserve and tariffs. However, until there are actual answers the financial markets are likely to remain rather choppy. Self awareness will be crucial for speculators. Also, a large factor in the financial markets will be played by the U.S White House regarding how incoming results are presented. Until then day traders may want to watch technical charts and try to figure out where programmed trading lurks regarding support and resistance levels. Price velocity in Forex, bond yields and gold should be monitored.

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No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

On Wednesday of this week Consumer Price Index numbers will be published, followed by Producer Price Index data on Thursday. Inflation statistics from the U.S for several months have been coming in rather tame and sometimes below forecasted results. Fed Chairman Powell and his team of FOMC members continue to plead uncertainty as the main reason for a lack of Federal Fund Rate cuts because of tariff concerns. The next meeting by the Fed finishes on Wednesday the 18th of June.

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U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

Even if the inflation numbers come in as anticipated in the next few days, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates next week. President Trump and some in his cabinet have spoken about the need for rate cuts. Not only would it help consumers via mortgage rates, borrowing costs to buy autos and other high ticket items, but it would help the U.S government pay less on interest rate expenditures generated by inflamed Treasury yields.

The Fed continues to stay passive about its outlook, but if inflation data via the CPI and PPI are near forecasts this week, why would the U.S central bank continue to take such a stubborn stance? Interest rate decisions are not supposed to be political. The Fed has pointed to the potential of sudden inflation occurring due to tariff implications. This is a genuine concern. However, why can’t the Federal Reserve be more nimble? Inflation has not shown signs of immediate upwards pressure.

Perhaps it is because the Fed serves large U.S and foreign financial institutions, and has gotten into the habit of telling important folks not only what it anticipates, but handing out its interest rate plans on a silver platter so large players can position themselves beforehand like entitled elites. The Fed is very unlikely to cut interest rates the middle of next week, but it is probable they will open the door to a 25 basis point cut in July. However, July’s meeting is scheduled for the end of that month, in essence this is the middle of the summer, which is a long time to wait for action.

Day traders hoping to ride the trends that flow through the marketplace as they pursue speculative wagers remain in a difficult spot. Intraday volatility remains dangerous. Mid-term outlooks are certainly taking hold in Forex and equity indices, but sudden reversals for those using too much leverage continues to cause harm. Short-term speculators need to remain patient and vigilant, it is important to remember day traders are seen as second class citizens in the big scheme of the financial world, and this is not going to change for the moment.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

A lack of clarity has spooked large players in the financial markets the past handful of months, but it does appear many institutions are becoming more comfortable. Though not at all-time highs, the major stock indices are within sight of important values. Behavioral sentiment seems to be leaning into a more positive outlook. Large investors appear to have concluded that while President Trump talks a tough game and often presents a strong stance, that ultimately he allows for tactical maneuvering to achieve deals. Trump is not big on being polite and this occasionally inflames markets. Bullish sentiment is growing on the hope President Trump’s characteristics are understood.

The Fed and the White House are likely to continue locking horns for the next few weeks. Perhaps if Jerome Powell tries to placate Donald Trump with a solid hint of an interest rate cut in July this will smooth things over. However, waiting for an interest rate cut in late July seems like a road too far, particularly when inflation levels the past couple of months avail the U.S economy to proactive actions from a Federal Reserve now.

Let’s remember, there is no law that says the Fed cannot cut or raise interest rates only during the conclusion of FOMC meetings. The U.S central bank has the ability to make changes to the Federal Funds Rate whenever it deems needed. Yet, the Fed refuses to be nimble in an age when technology allows data to be attained faster, this is a detriment.

The inability of the Fed to show it can be agile is another reason why investors are nervous about U.S policy regarding fiscal matters. The U.S government’s bureaucracy is too slow and bloated. The U.S is still a golden place to invest, but it is becoming problematic and this is leading to changes which effect long-term financial decisions.

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Market Volatility Shelf Life Doesn’t Have an Expiration Date

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Market Volatility Shelf Life Doesn't Have an Expiration Date

Updated: Apr 11

An associate in the financial world just wrote to me that “all bets are off”. Perhaps that is a solid way to think about the present speculative and investment situation. The tumultuous wave of hysteria in equity indices, Forex, commodities and U.S Treasuries are evident to everyone. President Trump’s tariff policies released last week lacked precision via perspectives for many investment institutions who suddenly had their mirage of calm destroyed. The realization that President Trump was undertaking what he had promised caught many by surprise who thought he was bluffing. Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics are now being confronted by middlegame chess strategies from opponents.

While the broad markets have boiled and folks look for calm to return, the prospect that current volatility has the potential to carry a long shelf life with no expiration date has to be considered. Yes, the financial world will become serene again. The return of semi-tranquil trading has been seen in the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow 30 the past couple of days – only because the losses and gains depending on the index have been moderate compared to last Thursday’s and Friday’s results.

Yet the shadow of more violent trading remains crystal clear. China and the U.S are now exchanging loud threats which include higher tariffs and retaliatory measures. The USD/CNY is under scrutiny as devaluation by China appears an evident threat. And U.S Treasuries are being watched as some contemplate that China is undertaking a selloff of U.S bonds. Higher U.S yields on long-term Treasuries will create pressure via the amount of debt the U.S will be obligated to pay.

Vice President J.D Vance’s peasant comments about China were not helpful on Tuesday. Why must a hornets nest must be stirred up? China has now been hit with a 104% tariff from the U.S, this while China has vowed to ‘fight till the end’ in its media. Asian markets are selling off cautiously this morning as tensions reignite. Forex pairs such as the USD/SGD, USD/ZAR and USD/BRL should be watched as a barometer not only by currency traders, but by those who want metrics regarding how global economic sentiment and credibility of policies are being contemplated. Risk adverse trading in emerging markets will cause harm and has the earmarks of looking like a stiff penalty for nations trying to develop and raise their standards of living.

While the start of this week has been smoother in relative terms compared to last week, the lack of a comprehensive end game is still missing. There is merit to treat current circumstances with cautious respect. The mid-term outlook remains highly questionable as President Trump and his negotiation gambits are tested publicly.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 9th April 2025

Gold has stumbled back to the 3000.00 USD level, WTI Crude Oil is down and these two commodities are intriguing as a looking glass into the hearts of large players. Are people selling gold short-term because they believe inflation will lessen because of a recession which some are forecasting, or is it merely a speculative move? Gold certainly carries an important risk adverse power and its lower move showed be looked upon skeptically.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th April 2025

Is WTI Crude Oil selling off because there is a belief there will be less demand due to fear tariff policies will influence a stumbling global economy? This viewpoint is plausible, the price of the commodity falling below 60.00 USD is a warning that large players are not comfortable with their outlooks and view downside risks as legitimate. The energy selloff in the past couple of hours is a negative barometer for what potentially is in store the remainder of the day in the broad markets.

The lack of finesse exhibited during these tariff negotiations is not palatable, the taste in the mouths of financial institutions has them worried. And outlooks via talking heads and analysts must be treated carefully by traders, this as they try to digest the onslaught of information and complex economic scenarios. Importantly, day traders should avoid getting caught up in the deleveraging talks surrounding the notion that large financial institutions will now pull money out of their U.S based investments in companies via stocks and Treasuries. Traders need to consider the bias of the people they are listening to and reading, and consider the scope and might of the U.S economy mid and long-term. There will be value found after the massive selloffs.

As a side note Warren Buffett has let it be known for a while he is sitting on a large amount of cash via Berkshire Hathaway. And folks should note that the annual meeting for Berkshire Hathaway is on Saturday the 3rd of May, which means people should get ready for insights from Buffett and his legions of admirers in the coming weeks. Certainly, Buffett’s comments and potential actions will be watched carefully.

The U.S Federal Reserve has taken a wait and see approach to the Trump tariff implications. Calls for an immediate cut of the Federal Funds Rate have not caused Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to shift his cautious stance yet. The coming days could bring a different attitude from the Fed if equity markets and U.S Treasuries perform badly. In the meantime some central banks have said they might become more proactive – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its interest rate by 25 basis points this morning to 3.50% and said it will continue to cut their Official Cash Rate if tariff policies create more negativity.

The consideration by financial institutions regarding the beginning of a paradigm shift of the global economy is justified. However, the ramifications of the Trump tariff policies have a long way to go before these present days will be able to be pointed to as the moment the world decided that it no longer wants to participate in the U.S marketplace. That notion seems farfetched. The USD remains the world’s reserve currency, its corporations remain extraordinarily large and valuable, and U.S Treasuries as they absorb current volatility and see yields moving higher in the 30 Year bonds cannot be viewed as an economic apocalypse – yet. Yes, the warning signs are meaningful and the Trump White House will need to respond diligently.

Again, the past week of trading has seen vast disarray, but we have been here before. It is important to recognize that current circumstances however do remain dangerous, this because we are still in the midst of the crisis. At some point, egos will have to be put to the side. The Trump White House will have to negotiate with China. China may be vulnerable, but so is the U.S. Why be belligerent and show no respect to each other? The remainder of this week’s trading will produce more whipsaw results. Selling looks to be in vogue once again this morning. Behavioral sentiment and understanding its power need to be contemplated as folks await sunnier days.

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Predicting the Federal Reserve and President Trump’s Rhetoric

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Predicting the Federal Reserve and President Trump's Rhetoric

Financial institutions have grown accustomed to the rather fierce rhetoric from President Trump in the early days of his second term. Financial institutions have also become quite used to the recent overly cautious statements from the Federal Reserve. This Wednesday the Fed’s FOMC Statement will be delivered and there will be no change to the Federal Funds Rate. The current ‘main’ borrowing rate offered by the Fed is 4.50%.

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US Dollar Index Five Year Chart as of 18th March 2025

This Wednesday Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak about the recent CPI and PPI numbers which came in below expectations. This typically would be a good signal regarding weaker inflation. And Powell might also mention that energy prices in the U.S have started to erode. WTI Crude Oil is now trading in a sustained manner below the 70.00 USD threshold, and this will influence the potential of less inflation. It is a good development for the U.S and Federal Reserve.

However, Powell is unlikely to express the unease and anxiousness the Federal Reserve has regarding President Trump, this because the Fed certainly doesn’t want to get into an open confrontation with the White House.

The U.S Treasury is now being run Scott Bessent who was selected by President Trump. Bessent ran the Key Square Group and is well respected in financial circles, which includes vast experience in top financial institutions. Powell though perceived as pragmatic by many analysts, may not be within President Trump’s trusted inner circle like Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the former Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. Lutnick is perceived as a workhorse who get things done and is smart.

The Fed’s likely cautious FOMC Statement will not be enough to appease President Trump this week. While some may think Trump’s attention will be elsewhere, those who have come to understand Trump know his capability to react quickly to events should be taken seriously.

What will Bessent and Lutnick think about the Fed’s FOMC Statement and stance? Powell is not a trained economist, do Bessent and Lutnick trust Powell? One thing for certain is that Janet Yellen who served as the Fed Chairwoman before Powell, and the Treasury Secretary before Bessent is not part of the inner circle in the White House.

Powell’s loyalties may be questioned, and eyes should be kept on Trump later this week to see how the President responds to the rather cautious Federal Reserve. The Fed will certainly not want to say aloud it is waiting like everyone else regarding the effects of tariff negotiations and their implications. Powell wants to keep his job. Trump certainly wants lower interest rates. Bessent and Lutnick certainly want lower interest rates too, but like Powell these two may prove pragmatic and know inflation needs to erode further. The Treasury and Commerce secretaries may want to test chicken and egg questions. Will these two gentlemen push Trump to proactively push for lower interest rates in a louder fashion?

Day traders will have to wait to see how financial institutions react to tomorrow’s FOMC Statement – which has already been accepted as being a ‘no interest rate cut event’. And it is probably being discussed in the White House that the Fed may want to wait until early this summer – June? – to consider another interest rate cut. Which means the Fed may not be cutting interest rates mid-term, while the ECB and BoE may have to be more dovish and remain active via interest rate cuts if their economies continue to show recessionary trends.

Meaning that risk premium which was factored into the stronger USD centric buying since the Trump election on the 5th of November until the peaks in mid-January and early February, and have now reversed lower – needs to be watched technically and weighed in combination with behavioral sentiment.

Intriguingly the US Dollar Index is around levels it stood at on the 5th of November (Election Day 2024). It is also near values seen on the 15th of October. (Did financial institutions start to bet on a stronger USD around this time because of a more cautious Fed outlook and the potential Trump was going to win the election?) Raising the question, if financial institutions envision the USD can technically be weaker and attain values seen in late September and early October when the US Dollar Index was testing support levels which have held since April of 2022. The US Cash Index which stands around the 103.070 level now, was trading near 90.00 in the spring of 2021.

Trump wants lower interest rates, the Fed wants to wait on cutting the Federal Funds Rate until they have clarity regarding the results of tariff negotiations. There will be a collision between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump, the only question is when it will happen. The US Dollar Index has been lower historically. Trump, Bessent and Lutnick may not want to say it out loud, but a weaker USD in the global economy would help U.S exporters. A weaker USD may not convey the strong populist rhetoric of MAGA, but it may be economic hardware the Trump administration actually seeks. To sustain a weaker USD, inflation levels will have to erode, and interest rates will have to be lower (and another myriad of complex events have to happen), until then rhetoric and risk premium will factor into USD Forex trading for financial institutions and speculators.

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Stock Market Narrative and Looking for a Trump Silver Lining

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Stock Market Narrative and Looking for a Trump Silver Lining

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S&P 500 One Year Chart as of 14th March 2025

U.S stock markets have been hit on the nose in recent weeks, the major indices have put in rather consistent declines since the 19th of February, and the selling frenzy and particularly noise have grown worse since the start of March. Narrative regarding tariffs and a lack of clarity have certainly had a negative effect. The notion that there is a part of the media that wants to see a downturn in the markets and blame President Trump could also be factoring into concerns and fragile sentiment among indices participants. I am not blaming the media for the downturn, just pointing out that there are some entities which are not unhappy about the recent selling in the stock markets, this because it fits comfortably into their narratives.

While the bearish decline on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow 30 have all been easy to see, defining the dynamics of the downturn, and reactions from day traders and investors are complicated. The stock markets are not guaranteed to always go higher. This may sound naive, but people have gotten so used to the notion that U.S indices always go up that they forget about the potential for downturns. Yes, the stock markets have turned negative, but a one month decline is not uncommon historically. And some of the folks rooting against Donald Trump may want to take that into consideration.

Risk premium has certainly been factored into the markets which has influenced equities, but has created forceful moves in Forex too. Risk adverse tension because of persistent rhetoric about tariffs and their impact on behavioral sentiment cannot be discounted. However, the stock markets are still higher over the past year.

The Trump Effect is certainly being pointed at by many as the cause for the sudden downturn, but it should be remembered that all-time highs occurred after Trump won the election. Yes, the selloff has definitely happened too, and stock markets are now traversing values seen before the election. And support levels are being looked at with caution and more selling could lead to a test of psychological ratios which pressure market confidence further. Yet, it should also be remembered the S&P 500 at this time last year was around the 5,150 ratio compared to its current mark near 5,565.

Day traders have been hard pressed to find momentum with solid wagering opportunities, particularly if they have been in search of a bullish trend in recent weeks. The belief that U.S indices always go up eventually is a solid reference, but in the short-term can cause expensive losses for stubborn betters. Investors certainly have an easier time with stock indices if they practice the long-game and do not worry about the daily and monthly gyrations when their money is parked in indices. The use of leverage when betting on the daily results of stock markets can become ultra expensive for speculators, particularly when upside bias is being counted upon.

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 14th March 2015

Data this week from the U.S has actually been positive regarding lower inflation, both the CPI and PPI reports released the past two days has shown a slow down in costs. Yet, these results have little to do with President Trump, since he has only been in power less than two months. However, the lower WTI Crude Oil prices being achieved at this moment will start to factor into weaker inflation and will benefit the U.S economy.

The U.S Federal Reserve will have to be watched, because Fed officials seemingly continue to be among the crowd worried about tariff knock-on repercussions. But it should be remembered during Trump’s first term in office, there were tariff concerns too and inflation was tame. It will take a few months to still see results via inflation under this Trump administration, but if energy prices remain stable and low, this can mitigate circumstances while the tariff winds blow and their effects are waited upon. Interest rates from the Federal Reserve, U.S taxes on the public will continue to come under scrutiny. The likelihood of Trump and the Federal Reserve locking horns regarding interest rates seems to be a certainty in the coming months.

U.S stock markets have proven dangerous for bullish perspectives the past handful of weeks, but the viewpoint that markets have been too discounted will certainly start getting the attention of large players. U.S Treasury yields remain a barometer, but short-term results do not always correlate. Speculators without deep pockets may want to continue to watch from the sidelines.

Traders should also remember there is the ability to short U.S indices, but this brings up the healthy question about when will price support start to become a factor. It is nearly impossible to pick the precise moment financial assets will stage a turnaround for day traders, but history does indicate that bullish sentiment will start to be seen. Betting on a continued downturn could prove more expensive in the end, compared to speculating on upside.

Trading is not easy. It takes a lot of stamina to endure price movements that do not go according to plans. The financial markets are proving difficult for many. We are likely not out of the woods yet because clarity remains problematic, investors who have longer timeframes are likely anxious too. Price velocity needs to be given attention, markets can certainly go lower. However, at some juncture equities will start to look cheap to important long-term players. Behavioral sentiment among investors will likely also start to acclimate to the Trump Effect.

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EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

by with No Comment AMT MarketsFeatured HighlightsForex

EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 3rd of March 2025

The EUR/USD bounced slightly higher in early trading this morning, this after Friday’s burst lower when nervousness was ignited by the loud outcome (and lack of a resolution) via the Zelensky and Trump meeting. However, after achieving some buying impetus to start today, the EUR/USD is running into nervous headwinds as concerns remain evident.

This Thursday the ECB is expected to cut another 0.25 from its Main Refinancing Rate. The difference between borrowing rates from the ECB and Fed will be significant if the ECB does lower costs. E.U economic data warrants the dovish policy, while concerns about stubborn U.S inflation persists. And President Trump will have something to say about the Federal Reserve’s policy too. Trump wants the Fed to lower the Federal Funds Rate.

The U.S will issue its Non-Farm Employment Change numbers this Friday. And many Fed members will be speaking at various engagements this coming Thursday and Friday which is certain to get attention. Financial institutions will certainly be listening for clues regarding the potential of shifting viewpoints regarding the Fed’s current stance which is cautious from FOMC officials.

Which brings us back to the current value of the EUR/USD and behavioral sentiment which is being generated by a deep sea which is not clear. The EUR/USD into early last week was showing signs of bullishness, this as folks piled into the notion the currency pair was in oversold territory. The ability of the EUR/USD to remain above 1.04000 today should be watched. While there has been upside early this morning, European traders and full market action will begin to kick off in about one hour.

Day traders need to know the potential rate cut cut from the ECB this coming Thursday has been anticipated and factored into the EUR/USD already. Leaving the currency pair ready to be influenced by USD centric perspectives, and Ukraine concerns which are unresolved. The U.S equity indices should be watched too via their less than inspiring results the past week. While many financial institutions believe the EUR/USD should be valued higher, this may be based on instinctive bias instead of fundamental reasons.

Economists are great for insights, but it is skittish sentiment which is driving the markets. Volatility is likely and the price range of the EUR/USD could prove tactically challenging and wide. If cautious attitudes in financial institutions create calm, the EUR/USD could produce durable support levels, which could be used for upside wagers. Speculators will have opportunities in the currency pair this week, but risk management will be essential to protect against sudden gusts caused by swirling Trump rhetoric.