All Quiet on the Trump Front?

The reason this is important is because like the incident in the Middle East in which a plane flying from the United Arab Emirates to Israel received a variety of different reporting, economic news receives the same type of bias. How can you trust a media source that doesn’t want to be transparent about outcomes? Now while it may be simply a lack of known details and an attempt to get a story reported on quickly to beat competitors, it would be foolhardy to say bias wasn’t a culprit in many instances.

As a consumer of news, speculators and investors need to be aware they are looking at information that often is being presented with details that the source wants to convey, while possible omitting facts. Unfortunately, global markets are being confronted by a complex amount of circumstances which include interpretation by the media which is reporting and this can lead to bad trading decisions. 

The war (conflict) with Iran continues to traverse a fragile  and unresolved path. Higher energy costs remain. WTI Crude Oil as of this moment is trading near $92.00. Gold is around $4,180.00. President Trump seemingly is attempting to practice relative calm – within his frequently loud characteristics – and not escalate the Middle East saga until the mid-term elections are complete. Perhaps that is merely my own bias as an observer.

Today Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published. And getting back to the original paragraph and its question, will the data matter and how will it be presented. Bias is apparent in most publications that cover the economy, to deny this would be a mistake by investors and speculators. 

While it is likely the jobs numbers are not going to have a significant impact on the voting decisions, nor the trading choices by market participants, what matters is the fact that the presentation is being geared towards an audience depending on bias of the source. The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CNBC all have reporters who certainly have their own perceptions and beliefs. There is nothing wrong with this, but as a consumer of news and as a market participant you must understand that you are being influenced intentionally by media sources. 

The results from Wall Street the past handful of months have seen plenty of trading opportunities. Yet, there is a loud debate on what the near and mid-term will produce. Plenty of risk analysts are nervous about their forecasts. Yet, even soothsayers need to be aware and remind themselves they are being influenced (including myself) by the news they are consuming.

There are facts. Market results are a truth. Higher U.S Treasury yields are a reality, the stronger USD in recent weeks is happening. Sideways results – via a handful amount of months – in the SP 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow 30 are facts – but importantly too is they remain within sight of apex highs. But the market results and their storylines are determined by media depending on how they would like you to interpret the results.

As an investor or speculator you must know your own timeframes and what your ambitions are regarding targets. Is there an AI bubble, can AI make enough revenues to cover existing valuations? Market results are delivering real values, but they still need to be interpreted and with open and flexible perspectives to determine what might happen near and mid-term.

Be careful folks. Understand what you are looking at is in fact meant to make you feel a certain way, you must digest the information and manner it is being conveyed the same way you treat a meal depending on what you have eaten. Some of the information you are taking in is junk food. You need to be able to decide on your own – hopefully with reliable insights and information – on what trading and investment paths you want to pursue.