postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

by with No Comment BaseballBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

postR196

10. MLB Concern: Baseball executives are hoping the Yankees can start to make the World Series more competitive this evening. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the first two games of the championship battle. Significant hopes for a drama filled, seven game World Series would be dampened badly if the Yankees do not win tonight. Television ratings which were expected to be high could suffer appreciably if the Yankees go down three games to none. A non-competitive championship would mean a loss of revenue.

9. Israel and Iran: The Middle East saga is at number nine, and hopefully doesn’t become number one. A dangerous game of poker is being played by the participants. If Iran decides to up the ante once again, it would be a dangerous decision, because it appears Israel has positioned itself via this weekend’s retaliation to be more aggressive if need be.

8. WTI Crude Oil: The ability of the energy to move below 70.00 USD upon this morning’s trading is a sign the Middle East conflict remains tranquil in the minds of large participants in the oil sector. However, if Iran decides to test Israel again directly, Iran may find that its oil infrastructure is vulnerable. As the price hovers below 68.00 USD during this writing, it appears buyers who bought speculative positions the past few weeks might be capitulating.

7. BRICS: The inclusion of 13 additional nations as Partner States to the international organization led by Russia, China and India shows the entity sees itself as a growing alternative geo-political force and trading sphere with real power. The West should be paying attention, but often seems like it is not concerned about the potential strength of BRICS, and instead makes believe the group is a fallacy and much ado about nothing – this is a mistake by the West.

6. North Korea: The potential of North Korean combat troops entering the Ukraine – Russia war is a dangerous notion. However, it opens the door for Ukraine and South Korea to offer surrendering deserters the possibility of being allowed into South Korea, if soldiers can prove they are not spies. Unfortunately, the temptation of desertion by enemy troops could prove to be wishful thinking because North Korean soldiers will have intense supervision at all times; the threat of being shot as a liable traitor is a likely constant menace.

5. Gold: Record values continue to be seen, the price of the precious metal as of this writing is near 2,732.00. Noted as a store of value, gold is also seen as a safe haven by its buyers. Now may be the time to consider behavioral sentiment as a main driver because of anxiousness in the global marketplace. Speculative forces are certainly involved in the move higher too. With so many risk events shadowing, it may be very unwise for day traders to bet against the rise of gold near-term.

4. U.S Data and the Fed: Advance GDP numbers will be published this Wednesday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be seen this Thursday, and on Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics will be presented. Fireworks should be anticipated by day traders. The combination of these reports, the approaching U.S election, and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting decision on the 7th of November will be enough to make most analysts hearts beat faster.

3. USD/JPY: Japan’s election results today now require a coalition government because the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority. The Bank of Japan has a meeting this Thursday and is expected to hold its BoJ Policy Rate in place. The Japanese Yen has returned to values above the 153.000 level as of this writing. While many major currencies have lost value against the USD since the end of September, the USD/JPY needs to be watched as a dynamic combination of risks abound. Political gridlock, inflation, and lackluster economic data in Japan are not ingredients which will provide financial institutions with optimism in the near-term. The historically cautious attitude of the Bank of Japan will be severely tested in the coming weeks.

2. U.S Election: There is a little more than one week to go before the Presidential vote begins. While many folks are focused on the White House, the race for the Senate looks to be a stiff competition too. Republicans are hoping to regain the majority in the Senate and retain their power in the House of Representatives. Financial institutions are apprehensive about the outcomes for Congress, which will have an important role in fiscal and regulatory management. The Democrats appear to be nervous. Noise from the campaign trail and media will become heightened over the next seven days. Top bureaucrats in offices like the SEC, CFTC, FCC and other agencies know their jobs are on the line.

1. Market Volatility: U.S economic data, the coming election, and the Fed means the next week and a half of trading in the global markets are going to be packed with violent firework displays. Day traders who do not have experience should watch from afar, because the coming price action can cause fast losses for those caught on the wrong side. Trading sentiment is fragile, this is evident via the choppy results seen in equities, Forex, many commodities, and rising U.S Treasury yields. Over stating the obvious for the moment about risk management is a public service.

postN85

Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

by with No Comment BaseballBusinessFeatured Highlights

Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

Shohei Ohtani signed a contract yesterday with the Los Angeles Dodgers for 700 million USD over the next ten years. You probably know that already. Here’s the thing, the Dodgers are actually going to make much more money from Ohtani than he will make from them. There are always questions about a player’s health and ability to last the lenght of a long-term contract, but the reasons why this was a good deal for the Dodgers are strong.

Yes, Ohtani does have a track record of getting hurt once in a while. He will likely not be able to pitch during 2024 as his arm heals from a throwing injury from the recently played MLB season. Yet, he will hit, and he will likely do this at a significant level, which could help propel the Dodgers into playoff and championship contention. He is 29 years old and only turns 30 in July of 2024, which signals he has a handful of years ahead with a potential for excellent performances. While playing for the Los Angeles Angels since 2018, Shohei Ohtani has not been able to showcase his talents in the MLB playoffs. That will certainly change when playing for the Dodgers.

Let’s not forget Ohtani’s performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. He struck out Angel teammate, Mike Trout, to win the Championship for Japan in an absolutely electric moment in March while defeating team USA. Ohtani has and can produce big under the spotlight. He has consistently lived up to and exceeded expectations during his MLB career. It isn’t often players are compared to Babe Ruth in the same sentence, a comparison that was laughable when any name was mentioned with the famous Yankee (and Red Sox before), discussing Ohtani’s ability to pitch and hit puts him politely into the conversation. Ohtani will have to achieve World Series Championships however to solidify this juxtaposition.

postN85

The money being paid to Ohtani may seem obscene to we, the mere mortals of this world, but let’s take a look at some numbers. Let’s consider the additional advertising money the Dodgers will now make being able to market into Japan, and perhaps other nations that love baseball in Asia. Clearly there will be heaps of money made on selling jerseys, not only with Ohtani’s name spelled in English, but Japanese as well. Sponsorships, licenses and merchandising contract costs and values will jump through the roof for companies wanting to be affiliated with the Dodgers.

There is also the worth of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, which likely just added to their price tag if ‘suiters’ want to try and buy the club, which in the spring of 2023 had an estimated value of 4.8 billion USD. Having Ohtani in the midst of Los Angeles will make this number jump substantially. The Dodgers television and advertising rights are massive already, and can grow larger because of the money they will charge during the broadcasts for commercials. The Dodgers reportably have a 8.35 billion USD deal for their regional broadcast rights with Spectrum SportsNet LA – Time Warner Cable already.

Dentsu Inc., the advertising and public relations giant in Japan, signed a six year 275 million USD with Major League Baseball to sell the rights of MLB games into Japan starting in 2024. However, the Dodgers who are already followed in Japan will certainly add to their exposure among MLB baseball fans in the nation who will want to watch Ohtani play. Major League Baseball and Dentsu are probably thrilled that the Japanese star has signed with the Dodgers and the prospect of more international media attention.

Baseball fans that love the Dodgers and for those that hate them, there is also the knowledge that Ohtani has apparently agreed to defer a huge amount of his contract until year ten. This means the Dodgers will be left room via MLB’S Competitive Balance Tax to operate effectively and still have money to spend on other highly prized players. The Dodgers can go after Japanese pitching ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto with additional piles of cash, who will certainly listen now that Ohtani has joined Los Angeles.

Lastly in terms of numbers, the contract with Ohtani is staggering. Yet there are other contracts in sports that are eye opening. Jon Rahm, the golfer, apparently inked an individual deal with LIV Golf last week which will be worth around 500 million USD to play on the highly cash infused ‘Saudi’ tour instead of the PGA. There has certainly been inflation in the world, but the money being tossed around for ‘players’ is gigantic in the NFL, IPL – Indian Premier League Cricket, assorted football (soccer) leagues globally, Formula 1, NBA, LIV Golf, and MLB which make many contracts questionable. But again, Ohtani may prove to be quite a steal for the Dodgers regarding their ability to make money via this contract.

postN68

Mets, New York City, and the Most Astounding Baseball Season

by with No Comment BaseballBooksFeatured Highlights

Mets, New York City, and the Most Astounding Baseball Season

Book corner: They Said it Couldn’t be Done by Wayne Coffey

In 1969, the Apollo 11 moon landing and the 400,000-strong Woodstock concert weren’t the only miracles in the United States. Wayne Coffey’s They Said it Couldn’t be Done focuses on major league baseball, where the New York Mets – a team with a losing record since its founding and who came in ninth place in the National League the year before – won the World Series to become baseball’s champions. Who says that miracles don’t happen?

postN68

Coffey is an experienced sportswriter, having written about hockey (The Boys of Winter: The Untold Story of a Coach, a Dream, and the 1980 U.S. Olympic Hockey Team), plus soccer, football, and basketball. In They Said it Couldn’t be Done, he tells the story of the championship ’69 year.

Coffey describes the history of the team. The Mets grew from the wake that was left in New York baseball when two of its three major league teams – the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1957 and the New York Giants in 1958 – relocated to California (referenced by the line “California baseball” in Billy Joel’s hit We Didn’t Start the Fire), leaving the southern boroughs without a team of their own. Created as one of two National League expansion teams in 1962 (the other being the Houston Colt 45s, later renamed as the Astros), the Mets played in the Giant’s old homestead, the Polo Grounds in upper Manhattan, until moving to Shea Stadium in Flushing, Queens in 1964.

A word about expansion teams. These teams usually comprise older players whose baseball chops have begun to erode, together with lesser-skilled players who – to put it mildly – weren’t the top prospects upon entering the league. The Mets went 40-120 their first year, a losing record for the twentieth century (and so far for the twenty-first). For the boys in Flushing, the early-to-mid-60s were a ballplaying comedy of errors, a farce with endless losing streaks, blowout games, and (as one can guess) a horrendously poor level of play. Fans would turn up to the game and watch dropped balls, outfield collisions, and balls careening off gloves. But the fiercely loyal New York fans stuck with them, taking the team to their hearts. In fact, an endearing and fun aura surrounded the young team, viewed by the fans as goofy but lovable losers.

As Coffey explains, the change began in mid-decade. Older players retired or were traded, and younger and more skilled players joined the team, such as the nimble shortstop Bud Harrelson. In 1967, two pitchers were introduced who would have a major role in the Mets future win, the left-handed Jerry Koosman and the right-handed Tom Seaver. These players – and others – were hungry for winning and were offended by the stigma of mediocrity that surrounded the team. In 1968, former Dodger star Gil Hodges began his tenure as manager, replacing the old-timer Casey Stengal. Coffey describes Hodges’ character and managerial style, and how it affected the team for the better. A decorated US marine in World War 2, and a man of the highest integrity, Hodges was calm, methodical, unflappable, with an uncanny knack for eliciting the maximum performance of his players, who respected him greatly. The ’68 team might not have even reached .500 (meaning the number of wins equals the number of losses), but for those watching closely, there were seeds of future victory being sown, as shown by good performances from catcher Jerry Grote, outfielders Cleon Jones and Ron Swoboda, and others.

Even with all the young and eager talent, the Mets began the ’69 season still outgunned in the National League, posting a losing record for the first month. But in May, they went .500 for the first time since their founding, and at the end of the month lurched ahead after a winning streak. Coffey describes the additional winning streaks in August and September where, trailing the Chicago Cubs for most of the year, the Mets edged out the Windy City boys to win, in champagne-drenched excitement, the National League East division. On this backdrop, the bulk of the book – the ’69 post-season – begins.

Going up against the Atlanta Braves in the National League Championship was frightening. Even though the Mets won more regular season games, the Braves – with powerful hitters such as Orlando Cepeda and top slugger Hank Aaron, and a pitching staff led by the right-handed All-Star Phil Niekro – were still favored to win. But in an unpredicted upset, the Mets swept the Braves, three games to zero, scoring a cumulative 27 runs compared to the Braves’ 15.

Defeating the Braves was one thing. Defeating the American League championship Baltimore Orioles in the World Series was another. With bat-wielding gladiators such as Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell, Paul Blair, and Frank Robinson, the Mets were going up against a baseball-playing war machine with almost no weak spots. Their pitching staff included four starters who won 20 games apiece, such as left-handed Mike Cuellar and Dave McNally, and right-handed Jim Palmer. Palmer, considered today one of the best pitchers ever, was still young when he took the mound against the Mets, turning 24 on the day of Game 4. But he already had five seasons under his belt, and was an experienced postseason warrior, including a World Series pitching duel in 1966 against the mighty Sandy Koufax.

The Mets went on to defeat the Orioles, four games to one, playing like lions in a World Series that has become legendary. Coffey describes these games – as he does with the Braves – in play-by-play detail, but does a good job of leaving out anything of lesser importance while highlighting the important plays, the latter including Ron Swoboda’s gravity-defying catch in Game 4 that saved the game for the Mets. A writer of lesser skill might over-indulge the reader, or conversely, skimp too much on details. Coffey is able to walk that fine line between the two, and the book’s climax bounces along at an exciting pace, with a breezy, page-turning feel. Coffey did his homework well, by conducting scores of interviews with the key players and obviously watching all the championship and World Series games (all are currently available on YouTube, for anyone interested). He includes interesting commentaries at various points, telling us what the players were thinking, analyzing their moves, and putting various key at-bats in context.

Coffey fills up the book with light vignettes of Met fans of the era, such as Howie Rose, the popular Mets sportscaster, and describes the season’s impact on New York society in general. He also delves into the background and personal stories of many players, including the hardships they endured – such as that of veteran third basemen Ed Charles, an African-American who came up from the Jim Crow South – to make it to the major leagues.

The classic baseball expression, “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over”, truly symbolized the ’69 Mets. They Said it Couldn’t be Done is a great read. Baseball fans will love the book but so will fans of any sport.

If you want to read another Book Corner article, please visit this review by Evan Rothfeld: https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/dangerous-and-unpredictable-duties-during-the-vietnam-war

post23

Baseball: No Time To Make a Sandwich

by with No Comment BaseballFeatured HighlightsSports

Baseball: No Time To Make a Sandwich

Simple fact, many suns ago baseball games were played with a solid pace. Games could last endlessly due to extra innings, but ‘human rain delays’ were frowned upon in baseball. Games on average were not all day endeavors and the sport had a national following across the States. It was America’s pastime.

post23

Baseball has languished the past thirty years in popularity as the NFL has become the sport many in the States will point to as their favorite game to watch. Although, American football it must be said can put you to sleep on a sofa just as easily as baseball due to the frequent stoppages in play, penalties being called, timeouts and commercial breaks – besides the danger of over indulging on chips, beer and other snacks. Who really has four hours to watch a game or desire to unless the contest is important and involves a team in which you have a distinct passion?

I blame Mike Hargrove for the problems baseball has suffered the past 40 years plus. The man was a human rain delay, I remember him stepping out of the batters box to fix his glove continuously in an era most batters did not practice this trait – nor did umpires allow it to happen. Hargrove was a good player, not great, but he gained an advantage by stepping out of the batters box before nearly every other pitch. Other players caught on, and slowly and surely baseball games started to last eternally. Perhaps it is too simple a perspective, but if you watch Hargrove bat on video via YouTube, you will surely notice his habits were not normal. He played from 1974 until 1985.

Suddenly the past couple of years baseball admitted it had a problem, it was hard to ignore because tv ratings were dying. Games were too long. But this year much to my astonishment, has seen new rule changes limiting batters time spent out of the box, pitchers being clocked, no ‘shift’ allowed in the infield and bases being made bigger in MLB. The games have now returned to ‘normal’ lengths and baseball can be watched without the danger of a day passing and waking up on the sofa late in the evening wondering what happened and having to ask questions. No longer can you get up and make a sandwich in the kitchen, return to the sofa and safely assume that nothing will have happened. Baseball is enjoyable again.

While some purists thought the ‘new’ rules would ruin the game because of the pitch clock being implemented, simply put baseball has returned to a contest which has a pace that can be enjoyed and life can be led again. A question and theory I have, and one that I am going to watch for in the coming months as this 2023 season moves along, is if pitchers somehow also become affected in a good way via their arm health because of the rule changes. This because I suspect the need to keep pitching delivery in focus and throw the ball within a certain time parameter will lead to better throwing mechanics and less strain on shoulders and elbows. Time will tell. Speaking of which, I need to find something else to do with the extra hour and half I have now that baseball games are finishing so quickly. Maybe I can trade the USD/JPY again.