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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Votes for the 4th of November

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10. Priorities: Not to dismiss the execution of beloved Peanut the Squirrel by New York authorities recently, but lets reflect on the fact that this little fellow made international news while wars are raging, and nearly 300 people in the U.S are dying from drug overdoses per day. Social media is rather powerful.

9. NBC: Kamala Harris appeared on Saturday Night Live for roughly 90 seconds this weekend, this created criticism and questions about unfair airtime for the Vice President. SNL is lucky to get more than 5 million viewers per episode on average. To try and apologize for the potential trouble, NBC then gave Donald Trump free commercial airtime twice yesterday, once during a NASCAR race which on average attracts over 3 million viewers, and on a Sunday night NFL broadcast which averages sometimes up to 22 million viewers.

8. Saber-Rattling: There is a potential Iran is waiting on the outcome of the U.S vote for President before undertaking more military actions. Deciding if and how they are going to launch another attack on Israel, depending on who wins the U.S election because of the potential ramifications is likely part of their military strategy.

7. BTC/USD: Bitcoin as of this writing is trading near 68,500 USD. The digital asset continues to bounce around rather intriguing resistance. On Tuesday of last week Bitcoin traded near 73,500 momentarily, while the highs are certainly noteworthy, support for the speculative asset has been around 66,000 since the middle of October. There are reasons to suspect Bitcoin will display a large amount of volatility this week, particularly when the new U.S President is known.

6. Forex: As of this writing the USD/JPY is slightly below 152.000, the EUR/USD is around 1.09000, the GBP/USD is near 1.29650. The question is where these currency pairs and other major FX assets will be in three nights. Day traders dreaming of riding momentum via financial institutions need to understand the equilibrium of risk and reward. In other words, the same amount of money you can make, is likely the same amount of money you can lose. Risk management will be a life preserver for many speculators this week.

5. U.S. Data: This past Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers came in wildly below the 106,000 jobs added estimate, the result of only 12,000 hired was rather shocking, but met with almost muted bewilderment. Also, the jobs numbers showed another revision lower from the previous month. Advanced GDP quarterly numbers, on Wednesday the 30th of October, also missed their estimate coming in with a 2.8% gain compared to anticipated growth of 3.0%. The U.S economy is still under stress.

4. Barometers: Risk adverse trading has been widespread the past handful of weeks. While gold has reached new highs and is slightly below the 2,750.00 mark for the moment, one month from now will be a telltale for gold and many assets. Since the end of September a number of narratives have been heard trying to explain the results seen across the board, but the simple answer is caution has entered the markets. U.S equity indices are still flirting with highs, even as they have suffered downturns in recent trading. WTI Crude Oil is near 71.50 USD per barrel. Gold, U.S equities and WTI Crude Oil will react to the outcome of the U.S election and serve as solid behavioral sentiment indicators in one month when compared to current prices.

3. Federal Reserve: If last week’s U.S economic data had been delivered without the fanfare of the U.S election approaching, Fed observers would likely be anticipating a dovish sounding FOMC Statement coming on the 7th of November. Instead, the USD has remained rather strong as risk adverse trading has been demonstrated in the broad markets. The Fed is certainly in a position to cut the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25 basis points, some could even argue for another 0.50% cut. However, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by a quarter of a point and sound rather cautious as they too read the landscape in the wake of the U.S voting results. Mid-term outlook from the Fed will be scrutinized this Thursday.

2: Nervousness: Day traders who decide to participate in the broad markets near-term may also enjoy walking outside and looking at approaching storms and dreaming about the fury about to come. Being anxious before and during large risk events when outcomes are unknown is a survival instinct. Speculators need to protect themselves over the next couple of days. Tranquil trading in all major assets may appear, but as tomorrow grows long assets will begin to percolate and by Wednesday almost all financial markets will be boiling. While this is certainly being hailed as the most important week of the year because of the U.S election and the Federal Reserve, it is also a very dangerous time to be trading. Those with limited funds may want to hunker down in a safe place and watch the markets create bedlam over the next 48 hours.

1. U.S Election: The vote is less than one day away when old standards are considered. However, more than 72 million votes have been cast early in the U.S already. That’s more than 45% of the total U.S vote during 2020, when 158,434,567 votes were counted. While the media bangs the drum regarding the incoming results tomorrow, it is important to note that many Americans and global observers are merely waiting for the final results to be announced. The end of the election campaign is nearly upon us, now financial institutions and traders await clarity. Wednesday the 6th of November is going to be an interesting day for the markets.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

by with No Comment BaseballBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Frights for the 28th of October

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10. MLB Concern: Baseball executives are hoping the Yankees can start to make the World Series more competitive this evening. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the first two games of the championship battle. Significant hopes for a drama filled, seven game World Series would be dampened badly if the Yankees do not win tonight. Television ratings which were expected to be high could suffer appreciably if the Yankees go down three games to none. A non-competitive championship would mean a loss of revenue.

9. Israel and Iran: The Middle East saga is at number nine, and hopefully doesn’t become number one. A dangerous game of poker is being played by the participants. If Iran decides to up the ante once again, it would be a dangerous decision, because it appears Israel has positioned itself via this weekend’s retaliation to be more aggressive if need be.

8. WTI Crude Oil: The ability of the energy to move below 70.00 USD upon this morning’s trading is a sign the Middle East conflict remains tranquil in the minds of large participants in the oil sector. However, if Iran decides to test Israel again directly, Iran may find that its oil infrastructure is vulnerable. As the price hovers below 68.00 USD during this writing, it appears buyers who bought speculative positions the past few weeks might be capitulating.

7. BRICS: The inclusion of 13 additional nations as Partner States to the international organization led by Russia, China and India shows the entity sees itself as a growing alternative geo-political force and trading sphere with real power. The West should be paying attention, but often seems like it is not concerned about the potential strength of BRICS, and instead makes believe the group is a fallacy and much ado about nothing – this is a mistake by the West.

6. North Korea: The potential of North Korean combat troops entering the Ukraine – Russia war is a dangerous notion. However, it opens the door for Ukraine and South Korea to offer surrendering deserters the possibility of being allowed into South Korea, if soldiers can prove they are not spies. Unfortunately, the temptation of desertion by enemy troops could prove to be wishful thinking because North Korean soldiers will have intense supervision at all times; the threat of being shot as a liable traitor is a likely constant menace.

5. Gold: Record values continue to be seen, the price of the precious metal as of this writing is near 2,732.00. Noted as a store of value, gold is also seen as a safe haven by its buyers. Now may be the time to consider behavioral sentiment as a main driver because of anxiousness in the global marketplace. Speculative forces are certainly involved in the move higher too. With so many risk events shadowing, it may be very unwise for day traders to bet against the rise of gold near-term.

4. U.S Data and the Fed: Advance GDP numbers will be published this Wednesday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be seen this Thursday, and on Friday the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics will be presented. Fireworks should be anticipated by day traders. The combination of these reports, the approaching U.S election, and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting decision on the 7th of November will be enough to make most analysts hearts beat faster.

3. USD/JPY: Japan’s election results today now require a coalition government because the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority. The Bank of Japan has a meeting this Thursday and is expected to hold its BoJ Policy Rate in place. The Japanese Yen has returned to values above the 153.000 level as of this writing. While many major currencies have lost value against the USD since the end of September, the USD/JPY needs to be watched as a dynamic combination of risks abound. Political gridlock, inflation, and lackluster economic data in Japan are not ingredients which will provide financial institutions with optimism in the near-term. The historically cautious attitude of the Bank of Japan will be severely tested in the coming weeks.

2. U.S Election: There is a little more than one week to go before the Presidential vote begins. While many folks are focused on the White House, the race for the Senate looks to be a stiff competition too. Republicans are hoping to regain the majority in the Senate and retain their power in the House of Representatives. Financial institutions are apprehensive about the outcomes for Congress, which will have an important role in fiscal and regulatory management. The Democrats appear to be nervous. Noise from the campaign trail and media will become heightened over the next seven days. Top bureaucrats in offices like the SEC, CFTC, FCC and other agencies know their jobs are on the line.

1. Market Volatility: U.S economic data, the coming election, and the Fed means the next week and a half of trading in the global markets are going to be packed with violent firework displays. Day traders who do not have experience should watch from afar, because the coming price action can cause fast losses for those caught on the wrong side. Trading sentiment is fragile, this is evident via the choppy results seen in equities, Forex, many commodities, and rising U.S Treasury yields. Over stating the obvious for the moment about risk management is a public service.

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Impact: Powell’s White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Impact: Powell's White Flag, Inflation Data, and the BoJ

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s waving of the ‘white flag’ last Tuesday, when he admitted that inflation was producing stronger than anticipated data had been essentially wagered on since the second week of March by financial institutions. Powell’s speech acknowledging the Fed will find it difficult to cut the Federal Funds Rate in the mid-term (and probably at best not until late this summer) simply verified Forex positions which had already been taken by large players who could afford to make mid-term wagers.

The USD Index has returned to early November 2023 values, and appears able to challenge late September and October prices if inflation data this week causes more volatility, which should put traders of major currencies like the GBP, EUR, JPY and others on full alert. After the USD spiked higher from the 10th to the 12th of April, Forex speculators have seen dynamic action incrementally flirting with stronger USD results the past week and a half.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Nervous trading continues to be seen in U.S equity indices. The Dow 30 and the Nasdaq 100 are fighting near ratios they touched in the last week of January. And the S&P 500 is traversing ground from the first week of February.

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S&P 500 Three Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 21st April 2024

Gold remains speculatively high as its hovers near 2,400.00 USD per ounce. The price of the precious metal has not given back its gains made since the start of March and this is intriguing because of the ‘known’ USD inverse correlation, which had proven to work well with the precious metal over the past couple of years but has been stopped in its tracks for the moment. Technically Gold may look overbought, but geopolitical concerns and the prospect that some central banks may be strong buyers could be fueling the rather incremental gains. Retail traders of Gold need to be careful because price action is likely to produce more surprises.

Forex has been turbulent the past handful of months as shifting behavioral sentiment has created choppy conditions. This coming week contains large fundamental risk events via data releases traders should monitor. USD/JPY speculators will also have to contend with the Bank of Japan.

Monday, 22nd of April, China Loan Prime Rates – borrowing costs are anticipated to remain at the current benchmarks. China produced slightly better Gross Domestic Product results last week, but Industrial Production numbers were weaker. Consumers in China remain burdened by decreasing home values and concerns about the economy.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, European Union and U.K Manufacturing and Services PMI – E.U results via the PMI readings are expected to show slight improvements. However the readings from the United Kingdom are anticipated to come in flat. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will be affected by the results, but the currency pairs will likely remain focused on U.S data later in the day.

Tuesday, 23rd of April, U.S Purchasing Managers Index – the Manufacturing and Services sectors are expected to produce slightly better readings than the previous month. These results will be interesting taking into consideration the Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers last week were bad. The PMI statistics will provide some impetus to the broad Forex market.

Wednesday, 24th of April, Australia Consumer Price Index – inflation data is anticipated to be higher than the previous month’s results. While stronger inflation is not something that will make consumers happy in Australia, stubborn price results may keep the AUD/USD slightly steadier. The currency pair is traversing values last seen in the second week of November 2023 as of this writing.

Thursday, 25th of April, U.S Advance Gross Domestic Product and Price Index – these numbers are certain to have an impact on all financial assets. A decline in growth is anticipated in the U.S compared to the previous month’s result, but the Price Index is expected to show an increase. Jerome Powell having come out last week and said inflation is causing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve, may have a bit of inside knowledge regarding this GDP inflation number and ‘tipped his hand’. If this inflation gauge is higher than anticipated it could pour fuel onto the already volatile USD. All Forex traders need to pay attention to these results and be prepared with solid risk management.

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USD/JPY One Year Chart as of 21st April 2024

Friday, 26th of April, Bank of Japan – in what has already proven to be a couple of weeks filled with drama for the USD/JPY, the BoJ will step into the limelight. During their last central bank meeting the Bank of Japan increased the Policy Rate to 0.10%. It was the first time the BoJ hiked interest rates in 17 years. The USD/JPY is trading at values last seen in June of 1990. The Nikkei 225 has come off of recent record heights, but the famed Japanese stock index is also trading within territory seen in January of 1990. Business activity via the Core Machine Orders and the Tertiary Industry data last week were stronger than anticipated.

The Bank of Japan may want to maintain a weaker USD/JPY equilibrium to continue fostering domestic growth. However, many financial analysts have been calling on the BoJ to become more hawkish regarding monetary policy. The interest rate decision is certain to cause immediate volatility before and after the Policy Rate is made public. USD/JPY traders need to be prepared for fireworks. A slight raise of the interest rate seems to be needed, but after the March hike the BoJ may prove conservative again. The 34 year lows now being seen in the Japanese Yen are astonishing.

Friday, 26th of April, U.S Core PCE Price Index, and Inflation Expectations – the data from the government, and the reading from the University of Michigan will close the curtain on a big week of economic statistics for all traders. The USD will react to these outcomes. It should be noted the previous Inflation Expectations data from the University of Michigan caused a storm in Forex when it came with 3.1% gain.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Points for Friday the 27th of Oct.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Points for Friday the 27th of Oct.

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10. Rugby World Cup: South Africa Springboks versus New Zealand All Blacks in a titan championship tomorrow.

9. Word of the Day: ‘Resilience’ as Israel’s business and start-up sectors remain focused and strong.

8. El Nino: Change to ocean currents still problematic, Acapulco hit by significant damage via Hurricane Otis.

7. Data: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index could cause a reaction if the inflation numbers are higher than anticipated.

6. ECB: Pronouncements were consistent yesterday as Europe battles lackluster economy and elevated consumer costs.

5. U.S: Advance GDP results yesterday stronger than estimated, American consumers remain buyers.

4. Electric Vehicles: EV market showing fatigue as poor earnings from Tesla and other manufacturers confront investors due to ‘resource’ hurdles and as legitimacy of mass adaption is questioned.

3. USD: Trend and resistance levels under scrutiny from day traders and financial institutions as potential reversals are contemplated.

2. U.S Equity Indices: Dow Industrials, NASDAQ and S&P 500 now facing critical tests of late May 2023 support levels after yesterday’s selloff.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Razor’s edge conditions in many assets are dangerous. Risk adverse elements are strong, timing a sustained shift of momentum is speculative.