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USD: Hidden Jobs Data Shows Potentially Intriguing Weakness

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

USD: Hidden Jobs Data Shows Potentially Intriguing Weakness

Forex traders like many market participants react to the ‘noise’ of U.S headline data results. The recent U.S jobs numbers published last Friday is certainly an example. The USD surged in strength on the backbone of more hiring via the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers. Also the Average Hourly Earnings beat expectations showing the cost of labor had become more expensive.

The U.S Federal Reserve stood in place last Wednesday before the jobs report. Pointing towards some troubling inflation, and mentioning the labor market was tight, the Fed refused to give a timetable regarding potential Federal Funds Rate cuts. The U.S central bank is showing more patience about coming interest rate cuts than many hoped on and had wagered.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 7th February 2024

Yet, there continues to be signs of anticipation for a weaker USD in the mid-term. The price of Gold remains within its higher elements, and U.S Treasury yields remain lower (although it must be said the past two weeks have seen an incremental move higher). And as a sign of potential inflation erosion, energy prices continue to be polite, which means the costs of logistics may continue to ease (except to say concerns about Suez Canal availability and chaos in the Red Sea are certainly risks).

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 7th February 2024

The fact that gold remains solid in value, and energy prices remain relatively low, and that support levels in Forex via the USD continue to drift near realms seen on the 13th and 14th of December is an intriguing behavioral sentiment clue. Perhaps it is a sign large institutional players believe they know something others are not considering regarding the future direction of the USD fundamentally.

There are always risks for day traders. Having solid information which is correct and can affect values in Forex, commodities and even equities is important for speculators, but is also hard to find when there are limited resources regarding market intelligence.

U.S Jobs Numbers Headline may be Misleading

Importantly, while last week’s jobs numbers on the ‘surface’ scared many large players who believed the USD will get weaker, thus causing the significant reactions via reversals in many major currency pairs teamed against the USD; there is some evidence from the U.S jobs statistics that needs consideration which was not widely reported. It is important to read beyond the headlines.

The amount of hours worked in the U.S on a weekly basis has eroded. Added to this consideration is that the stronger hiring numbers may still have been affected from seasonal needs due to the holiday season. This sets the table for the next U.S jobs numbers as a significant report on the 8th of March, and one that will have a big impetus on Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and USD.

The U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation News Release on the 2nd of February (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02022024.htm) reported the following:

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Perhaps it is conjecture to speculate the average workweek for employees decreasing is a telltale sign of weakening employment numbers to come, but it might prove to be a useful insight. Layoffs via U.S corporations continue to make news as companies seem to be bracing for a downturn in U.S economic health in the coming months. If the layoff theme remains noisy it will create the need for action from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy.

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EUR/USD One Year Chart as of 7th February 2024

What does it mean for day traders? There are absolutely no guarantees, but the major currency pairs ability to stay within their mid-December prices is a likely sign that financial institutions have analysts which are looking beyond the headline numbers from the recent U.S jobs report, and have also seen the hourly workweek data. In other words support levels in many of the major currency pairs could prove durable. There is no doubt reversals and outliers will be demonstrated, and choppy Forex conditions will happen, but perhaps the current lows in many major currency pairs will start to exhibit resilience.

Trying to time short-term moves via behavioral sentiment that is generated by statistics found ‘hidden’ away in the jobs numbers is speculative. But if traders want to consider the potential of technical support, it might be worth a consideration to think the U.S employment picture isn’t as strong as the headline ‘noise’ is projecting.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Raindrops for the 2nd of February

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Raindrops for the 2nd of February

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10. Risk Appetite: WTI Crude Oil almost serene around 74.00 USD, as bombastic rhetoric remains loud involving the Middle East.

9. South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa expected to announce the country’s election date when delivering the State of the Nation Address on 8th of February.

8. Tesla: Negative media coverage and an always defiant Elon Musk gravitate towards each other, share price is around 188.88 USD.

7. China: Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) hovering near 2,730 as of this moment.

6. Gold: After near-term lows a challenge of highs as USD has gotten slightly weaker.

5. Central Banks: All bark and no bite yet, as financial institutions desire interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England.

4. India: Nifty 50 Index near 21,865 as of this writing, it has gained more than 101% over the last five years – yes, plus one-hundred and one percent.

3. Forex Reactions: Recent short-term volatility and reversals seen as expected, patience still needed as USD mid-term outlook remains weaker.

2. U.S Equities: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones 30 have produced nervous results but still near record highs, as U.S Treasury yields have edged lower this week.

1. Data: U.S Non Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings today, this as some major corporations shed employees but labor market remains rather tight. Broad markets will react to the outcomes.

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Trading Optimism for 2024 and Pursuit of Castles in the Air

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Optimism for 2024 and Pursuit of Castles in the Air

Traders may feel like horses being kept in their stables right now. The desire to run freely in Forex and other markets is certainly being felt, this as many analysts have jumped onto optimistic bandwagons and are pointing to the U.S Federal Reserve and its rather dovish outlook for 2024. Gold in early trading this morning is lingering near highs and the USD remains within weaker territory when technical charts are inspected via one month results.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 2nd January 2024

Yet, thin holiday trading is full in effect. Light volumes will continue to be seen early this week after the New Year’s celebrations. Financial institutions will open their doors today, but their corporate clients around the world will have plenty of employees who will remain on vacation until the 8th of January. Thus, while day traders may feel enticed to wager in the markets with various CFDs, they should be careful and understand unbalanced positions may cause temporary chaos. Risk taking tactics should be carefully considered.

The desire to dream about castles in the air is a source of comfort for many new day traders. But remaining realistic about potential results, while not getting overly ambitious about targets is an important aspect for all speculators. While trends may look attractive in Forex, commodities and equities a well planned approach regarding risk taking is a practical road. Castles in the air tend to vanish.

Optimism will be a word frequently heard in the coming days and weeks, and here’s to wishing everyone a prosperous and peaceful 2024. The potential of a more dovish U.S Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and declining Treasury yields sparking more risk appetite in equities as investors seek solid returns is alluring, however risks remain on the table. The economy of China continues to worry analysts and tensions in the Middle East are still a long way from being solved.

However, the biggest cause for speculative concerns during 2024 may come from elections in Taiwan, India, South Africa and the United States. Taiwan’s presidential vote is on the 13th of January. China will certainly be watching the results, and traders should expect to hear swords rattling afterwards and then hope the noise calms down.

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USD/ZAR One Year Chart as of 2nd January 2024

Tranquil voting results in India will be welcomed by investors. India is becoming a noteworthy economic giant, its rapid growth and ascension as an important investment vehicle needs to remain stable. South Africa remains troubled domestically by concerns regarding corruption and inefficiency, its upcoming spring election results may not solve the problems it faces. There will be many elections in Africa this year, which could spur on considerations regarding geopolitical alliances and the price of commodities.

The U.S election late in 2024 will start to grow in noise as the months progress and by early this summer behavioral sentiment will begin to become nervous regarding the outcomes for the White House and Congress. The U.S appears to be braced for an election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and this will certainly cause skittish storms.

Traders should feel confident about risk appetite in the global markets improving, but they should keep in mind that impetus coming from many different spheres can affect the financial world.

Tuesday, 2nd of January, U.S Final Manufacturing PMI – today’s Purchasing Managers Index is expected to show a slight improvement, but the results may fall on deaf ears because many market participants will not be around to react due to the fact they are still on vacation.

Wednesday, 3rd of January, U.S ISM Manufacturing Prices – this inflation survey from purchasing managers may be given a bit of attention, but its effect may be limited because of light trading volumes still being exhibited.

Thursday, 4th of January, Germany Preliminary CPI – the inflation data from Germany will get some consideration, and the result is expected to show a slight increase. Services PMI data will also come from European Union nations, the U.K and U.S.

Friday, 5th of January, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs reports will get the notice of financial institutions. The results for employment and wages are expected to be slightly weaker than the previous month’s outcomes. Typically these numbers would cause a stir, but unless there are surprises, most financial institutions may not react massively to the reports because it remains a ‘holiday’ week. If the numbers come in weaker than expected this could cause interesting reactions on the 8th of January and weaker USD sentiment.

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Dynamic Forex Conditions Expected via Inflation Data and Fed

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Dynamic Forex Conditions Expected via Inflation Data and Fed

Day traders may have experienced difficult results the past few days as Forex produced choppy conditions. The USD proved rather strong on occassion and likely whipsawed technical speculators, particularly if they were looking for sustained trends to emerge with bearish perspectives regarding the USD. The EUR, GBP and JPY have demonstrated rather turbulent values. More challenging days are likely ahead for speculators, this as inflation reports from the U.S and the Federal Reserve are on the horizon.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 11th December 2023

Curious economic data was published at the end of last week, this as the broad markets turned in a rather convulsive five days of results via financial assets. U.S jobs numbers came in slightly higher than expected for the Non-Farm Employment Change figures and the Average Hourly Earnings. Following the employment data, the Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading came in much stronger than anticipated, and its inflation data found that people are less fearful of inflation looking forward in the States.

On Saturday, China released its CPI and PPI statistics and they continued to show a downwards path. China has taken on a rather sticky deflationary track and this signals that consumers and producers in the nation remain burdened by harsh economic considerations.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 11th December 2023

U.S equity indices were rather jerky, but finished last week’s trading higher than they started. U.S Treasury yields finished the week higher, except for the 30 Year Bond which came in with a result slightly below its starting point for the five day period. Gold has seen its price come down from highs and this may be interpreted as a reaction to the stronger USD. The precious metal may be in for volatile days ahead.

The risk appetite flame has apparently been turned lower, but is still simmering and this is due to financial instiutions waiting to see if the U.S Federal Reserve delivers a neutral monetary policy rhetoric this coming Wednesday. The USD which had been getting weaker across the board for a handful of weeks, suddenly seemed to hit ‘support’ and reversed higher as questions regarding ‘fair market value’ may have been considered. Larger players in Forex are likely waiting for their outlooks to be confirmed via the Federal Reserve or dampened considerably. The higher Average Hourly Earnings data on last Friday was a reminder inflation data continues to be stubborn, even if many analysts believe the Fed’s higher interest rates will begin to have an impact in 2024 and slow the U.S economy.

Monday, 11th of December, U.S Ten Year Bond Auction – the results of the auction will be studied by financial institutions, particularly as investors debate the necessity for interest rates to be kept high, against those who are arguing for the need to cut the Federal Funds rate by late spring 2024.

Tuesday, 12th of December, U.S Core Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers will be critical for behavioral sentiment and certainly affect the attitude of financial houses and their trading positions before the Fed steps into the limelight on Wednesday. The Core CPI numbers are expected to be slightly higher compared to last month’s outcome. Perhaps last Friday’s higher U.S earnings data will pave the way for a calm reaction if the CPI is strong. Forex markets will respond to this report and day traders should be braced for price ranges and spreads to get wider.

Wednesday, 13th of December, U.S Producer Price Index – the PPI numbers will be released early in the States, five and a half hours before the Fed’s Federal Funds Rate publication. Traders need to be ready for volatility before the Producer Price Index figures are reported. The inflation numbers are expected to be higher than the previous month’s outcome.

Wednesday, 13th of December, U.S Federal Reserve – the last interaction of the year for the U.S central bank and financial institutions will be an important affair. The Fed’s Federal Fund Rate, FOMC Statement and Press Conference will get full attention. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates in place, the question is what ‘vocabulary’ the central bank will use as it lays the groundwork for its 2024 outlook. While talk of a more neutral Fed, one that isn’t as aggressive has been envisioned, financial institutions want to see a ‘softer’ tone become the reality.

Depending on how the U.S Federal Reserve talks about inflation and its monetary policy insights for the next few months to come via this FOMC Statement, the USD will take center-stage and Forex conditions may become rather violent as Wednesday concludes. Day traders are advised to be very careful if they plan on trying to surf the waves caused by the Fed’s storms which will certainly be stirred.

Thursday, 14th of December, E.U European Central Bank – the ECB will release its Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and conduct its Press Conference. The last ECB event proved to be rather mundane. While some talking heads may try to make this coming event into must see television, many financial institutions likely expect the European Central Bank to say, “the E.U economies remain lackluster, there are glimmers of growth in some spheres, but recessionary problems are still evident”, this while also mentioning inflation is observed to still be too strong, but showing signs of erosion. In other words, the EUR/USD is likely to remain USD centric according to existing behavioral sentiment that has been triggered earlier.

Friday, 15th of December, China, Industrial Production – the report is anticipated to show a better outcome than last month’s figure. China skeptics will examine these reports carfully, as well investors with ‘skin in the game’ in the nation.

Friday, 15th of December, E.U, U.K and U.S Manufacturing and Services PMI – these reports will be watched from the European Union nations, the United Kingdom and U.S, but the results will be filtered into existing sentiment which has been generated on Wednesday and Thursday from the Fed and ECB. Behavioral sentiment in Forex will likely look at the PMI results with vague interest levels. Traders should note that as the weekend approaches, there will be only one full week of trading left before the holiday season gets underway and financial markets begin to experience thin volumes.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 8th of December

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentBooksFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 8th of December

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10. Book: A History of Venice by John Julius Norwich.

9. Music: Gram Parsons (featuring Emmylou Harris) playing Ooh Las Vegas.

8. Artificial Intelligence: Speed and processing advances will continue to make AI a buzzword in 2024, this as quantum computing looms in the distance.

7. Trading Volumes: Speculators should note there are about two full weeks of trading left before ‘thin’ holiday markets will begin to be seen. Meaning financial institutions while being cautious, will also start to position their assets according to their outlooks for early next year.

6. Energy Sector: WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline continue to challenge support levels as long-term lows remain in sight.

5. China: Important inflation numbers via Consumer Price Index statistics will come from the nation early Saturday, negative results are expected.

4. Risk Appetite: Optimism continues to be encouraging within behavioral sentiment, this as U.S equities remain near highs, the USD leans towards a mid-term outlook with potential weakness, and gold stays above 2000.00 USD per ounce.

3. USD/JPY: Bearish momentum continues in the currency pair, price velocity built speed yesterday and this morning’s trading has been dynamic.

2. Data: U.S jobs numbers will be released today, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports will create reactions. However, unless the results are surprising, this data may simply work as an affirmation for existing risk appetite.

1. Federal Reserve: The Fed’s next FOMC Statement will be on the 13th of December, this knowledge will shadow the broad markets today and early next week.

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December Cheer, Full Volume, Considerations for Coming Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

December Cheer, Full Volume, Considerations for Coming Week

The EUR/USD finished the past week of trading below its starting point essentially closing this Friday around the 1.08790 mark. While the slight downturn may have hurt bullish day traders who kept on looking for higher ground in the short-term, the EUR/USD did trade above the 1.10000 on late Tuesday and held its ground briefly on Wednesday before starting to trend lower. A depth of nearly 1.08310 was momentarily challenged on Friday with solid price velocity, but the EUR/USD did exhibit some buying before going into the weekend.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 3rd December 2023

Speculators who were looking for a higher finish for the week from the EUR/USD may have been disappointed, but the end of the trend upwards may not be finished. U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounded optimistic on Friday regarding Fed policy and mentioned a ‘soft landing’ and indicated interest rates at their current level will still need a bit of time to have their full effect. U.S growth numbers via the Gross Domestic Product came in stronger than expected on the 29th of November, but inflation data continues to show a slight erosion.

This puts the U.S Federal Reserve in position to actually sound rather neutral when the FOMC Meetings conclude in a week and a half. And if global events do not cause any sudden alarms to ring, it appears risk appetite is within a rather optimistic state. U.S equity indices continued to roll along merrily and the 3 big indexes are challenging highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are challenging July values, and the Dow Jones 30 is trading at ratios last seen in January of 2022.

While U.S Treasury yields have also continued to erode and are near mid-term lows, the USD/JPY continued to create a bearish trend for the week and is trading at values last seen in the second week of September. The GBP/USD finished the week within sight of highs attained on Tuesday and Wednesday, this as the currency pair also trades near values last seen in late August and early September. The EUR/USD is the outlier among the three major currency pairs and speculators may look at the EUR as potentially being in oversold territory as the week gets set to begin. Risk management as always is essential for wagering on Forex.

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S&P 500 One Year Chart as of 3rd December 2023

The next two and a half weeks of trading will see full volumes, this before holiday trading starts to hit the broad marketplace. The upward moves in U.S equity indices may be seen as overdone by many analysts, but the trend has been strong and trying to step in front of the ‘optimism’ within the indexes may prove expensive in the coming days and weeks. Day traders should make sure conservative leverage is being used if they are attempting to climb aboard the moving train.

Some analysts are pointing out correctly, that if it weren’t for a few ‘workhorse’ corporations in the U.S equity indices, declines would have been seen. But day traders who are wagering on CFDs via their brokers and financial institutions investing in the three major stock indices are likely enjoying their profitable returns.

Monday, the 4th of December, E.U Sentix Investor Confidence – the reading is expected to come in with a negative result, but slightly better than last month’s outcome of minus -18.6. About a hour and a half before this European survey, German Trade Balance numbers will be released. The EUR/USD may be affected by this data, but the currency pair is likely moving within the shadows of behavioral sentiment which is USD centric. Europe is struggling with recessionary conditions, but it is outlook which drives the marketplace. If the EUR/USD can find durable support it may prove that its bullish trend has not come to an end.

Tuesday, the 5th of December, U.S ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index – an improvement is expected compared to last month’s outcome. Recent data from the manufacturing sector came in less than expected, thus the services sector will be watched closely, but as long as the result is around the expectation this will not hinder broad market sentiment. Meaning the report could be a non-factor.

Wednesday, the 6th of December, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – traders will be keen to see what line of rhetoric is taken within the Rate Statement from the Bank of Canada. No change to borrowing costs are expected. The rate is anticipated to remain at 5.00%. The economy of Canada has been struggling as recessionary clouds are shadowing, but recent GDP data was slightly better than expected and inflation has shown signs of weakening. The USD/CAD went into this weekend near its lows and in sight of values seen in late September.

Thursday, the 7th of December, China Trade Balance – economic numbers via the manufacturing sector last week came in below expectations. The lackluster China data may be a factor in the weaker WTI Crude Oil prices, but perhaps that is only speculative. Some investors participating in China are worried about outlook over the mid-term. Analysts will comment on the Trade Balance numbers, but traders should make sure they separate the ‘noise’ which may be delivered from biased perspectives depending on ‘world view’ compared to actual outcomes and genuine insights.

Friday, the 8th of December, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs numbers will be looked at attentively by market participants. The data will be correlated to existing behavioral sentiment and risk appetite that has sustained a weaker USD, higher U.S equity indices, lower yields on U.S Treasuries and the high price of gold. If the jobs data comes in around expectations that will likely be enough for investors to remain calm and look forward to the 13th of December, this is when the U.S Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement – which may keep risk appetite strong.

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FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

Traders should not run towards their trading screens as the week begins, steady attitudes and risk taking tactics will be needed. Yet, there may be reasons to get excited. The return of full market volume as U.S financial institutions open and employees get back in their offices after the long holiday weekend needs to be monitored. The term ‘FOMO’ – fear of missing out – may be heard this week if U.S equity indices continue to shine, Forex demonstrates additional USD weakness and U.S Treasury yields decline further. There will be a whirlwind of economic data and opportunities for ‘official’ rhetoric in the days ahead.

Day traders should ask questions about the results which were seen technically via their charts last week, assets all struggled to find momentum last Thursday and Friday. And earlier in the week many Forex pairs produced choppy results. But here’s the thing, behavioral sentiment was rather muted as large speculators and financial institutions understood that trading volumes would be light – this caused strong bursts and sudden reversals early – but by the end of the week rather calm waters.

Many trading houses could increase their speculative positions this week based on their outlooks. Financial institutions clearly have believed the USD had been overbought and the ability of the GBP, EUR and JPY to gain in the past two weeks are possible signs large ‘players’ remain positioned for further USD weakness.

Equity markets have done well in November, but the major indices including the Dow 30, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite all started to garner strength in the last week of October. Mid-term highs are being achieved in U.S indices. The parade of buyers may not be done quite yet.

Economic data results are vital for day traders to understand because they provide insights into the thinking of financial institutions regarding their outlooks. It is not the trading of small speculators that moves markets, it is the power of large cash positions which drives results. Questions regarding where the cash is going and the allotments financial institutions are pursuing is a key to understanding how the markets are going to react. This information is not readily available for day traders, instead smaller speculators need to try to comprehend outlooks regarding positioning and timeframes of larger players.

Part of the FOMO factor could develop as financial institutions begin to question how much money they will hold in money market accounts for their clients. While the practices of large investors are always comforted by the notion they are making guaranteed returns, the pursuit of better results and the desire for risk appetite does drive behavioral sentiment when bullish markets are being exhibited.

This week will be intriguing as full volumes return to the marketplace today and tomorrow. From today until the 13th of December FOMC Statement from the U.S Federal Reserve, results in the financial markets could be speculative. Financial markets are starting to signal that optimism is creeping back into the mindsets of large investors who may believe mid-term economic scenarios have improved.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Monday, 27th of November, E.U. ECB President Lagarde – the European Central Bank leader will deliver thoughts regarding monetary policy to the European Parliament. While the E.U still is sufferning from recessionary numbers, economic data last week came in slightly better than estimated. However, the EUR/USD remains in a USD centric mode and this will continue this week.

Tuesday, 28th of November, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board, the numbers are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. U.S economic data has been showing signs of being weaker than expected, last week’s Core Durable Goods Orders report followed this trend.

While this may be read as bad news by some people, day traders should note – particularly Forex speculators – that slightly weaker U.S economic data currently is music to the ears of many financial institutions because they believe the Federal Reserve will have to shift their rhetoric from aggressive to neutral.

Tuesday, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – a slew of FOMC members will be speaking at various events during the day. The Fed likes to give clues to the financial markets regarding their outlooks and perceptions regarding interest rates. The Federal Reserve has certainly paused their interest rate hikes.

The question now is if the U.S central bank will start to say while they remain diligent regarding inflation, that they now see signs of a ‘soft landing’ emerging within the U.S economy. If the Fed speakers begin to sound not only neutral, but offer hints of becoming potentially dovish by the spring of 2024 regarding monetary policy, this could spur USD selling.

Wednesday, 29th of November, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the inflation results are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. German economic data has been recessionary, financial institutions know this, what large traders would like to see is stable results that are not wildly surprising.

Wednesday, 29th of November, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers are expected to show a slight increase. Equity markets, Forex and commodity markets will react to these results. The U.S economy has been surprisingly strong regarding growth. A slight slowdown regarding the GDP numbers would not be the worse thing, if growth numbers did come in below the estimate this could fuel additional USD weakness.

But traders should not get overly ambitious and bet against the GDP numbers. If the expected outcome of 5.0% is delivered, equity markets could use this as additional fuel. The number is sure to be a talking point, but unless their is a massive divergence it may simply be a way to create noise for ‘talking heads’, when in fact behavioral sentiment regarding risk appetite remains optimistic.

Thursday, 30th of November, China Manufacturing PMI – the result is forecast to show a slight improvement. China economic numbers remain a concern, particularly from the real estate sector which is suffering and is causing cascading troubles on other sectors within the nation. Global demand for products, as an example from European countries, that are suffering recessionay pressures also is slowing China’s manufacturing. A slight improvement would be welcomed by global investors participating in China financial assets.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Thursday, 30th of November, OPEC and JMMC Conference – the oil producers will certainly make their policies known and energy markets will react to the news and rumors. Commodity traders should note that WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline markets have been under price pressure and important mid-term cash support levels are in sight.

Thursday, 30th of November, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – this inflation reading is important and should be watched. The result is expected to be weaker than the previous month. If the outcome matches the anticipated reading of 0.2% or less, this could spur additional USD weakness. The Core PCE Index is an important reading for the U.S Federal Reserve regarding its inflation insights.

Friday, 1st of December, U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – the Fed leader will be speaking at a college event in Atlanta. Traders should remember that about ten days before the Fed’s pause in November regarding its FOMC Statement, Powell delivered a large hint regarding monetary policy. The Fed Chairman’s comments will come late on Friday and could cause a reaction early next week if Powell’s remarks fuel more Forex speculation.

Additional note – the U.S jobs numbers will not be released this Friday, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings results will be published on the 8th of December.

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To Risk or Not to Risk that is the Speculative Question

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

To Risk or Not to Risk that is the Speculative Question

Last week U.S equity indices demonstrated a rise in value. The highs achieved in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 by the end of last week only touched values seen in the middle of October. And while their ratios remain below the highs of early August and falling values seen in September, the move upwards was certainly welcome by financial institutions and day traders who hold optimistic viewpoints.

U.S Treasury yields declined last week. While incremental decreases were made through Thursday, the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports both coming in below expectations on Friday, created a stronger dose of lower yields. The 5, 7, 10 and 30 year U.S Treasuries are now trading near mid-September values. The 2 and 3 year notes are moving around early September numbers.

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Gold One Year Chart as of the 5th November 2023

The USD grew weaker in slight movements against many major currencies last week, but upon the weaker jobs numbers found increased selling price velocity. Gold however remains suspiciously strong, which brings up the notion that risk adverse ‘insurance’ is still being held closely by investors who remain nervous.

The Middle East crisis is ongoing in Israel against Hamas and to a limited extent Hezbullah, but financial institutions have seemingly been able to digest the news and remain tranquil and vigilant. Another sign of calm coming into the global financial markets is the price of WTI Crude Oil which finished the week under 81.00 USD per barrel.

Economic data will be relatively light this coming week, and behavioral sentiment appears to be the potential larger factor until Friday regarding impetus for day traders and financial houses. Certainly loud global developing news could suddenly erupt and cause nervous investors to falter, but last week’s trading results showed signs of improving risk appetite.

The U.S Federal Reserve met expectations last Wednesday and didn’t raise the cost of borrowing. The mid-term seems to indicate interest rates will remain high, but that the U.S central bank will not raise the Federal Funds Rate anytime soon. The lower than expected inflation report via the Average Hourly Earnings before going into the weekend helped highlight this thinking, although it remains a consideration that is still speculative.

Officials from the major central banks including the BoJ, BoE and Fed will be speaking this week and could cause turbulence with their rhetoric. However, no major surprises will likely come from their mouths. Although the Bank of Japan may rattle the prospects of intervention to keep USD/JPY traders on their toes.

Monday, the 6th of November, Germany Factory Orders – the result is expected to be negative and highlight the nation remains within recessionary conditions. The Sentix Investor Confidence reading will also be released slightly afterwards for the European Union and a worse number than last month’s outcome is anticipated. But the EUR/USD is likely to remain mostly USD centric, even though these reports could cause momentary fluctuations.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of the 5th November 2023

Tuesday, the 7th of November, Australia Cash Rate – the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.35%. Will the RBA take a gamble and not raise the interest rate due to other major central banks holding their rates in place, or will the increase go ahead to fight stubborn inflation while trying inspire some confidence in the AUD? A hike seems to be the direction the RBA will decide upon, having said that, the Australian central bank have surprised financial institutions before.

Wednesday, the 8th of November, U.S 10-year Bond Auction – the results from this sale and the yields that develop within U.S Treasuries will have an affect on Forex. Lower yields than anticipated could signal a weaker USD. However, risk adverse elements will need to be calm for the bond auction to produce tranquil results.

Thursday, the 9th of November, China CPI and PPI – the data from these inflation reports will be watched closely. Chinese economic numbers has shown some signs of stabilization the past few weeks, both of these publications are expected to have negative outcomes. Concerns about the financial pressures domestic consumers are facing regarding housing market values in China and the way in which they spend due to lackluster prospects are concerning. The USD/CNY will be affected in the wake of these statistics, and the USD/SGD could see momentary volatility too if the results prove to be a surprise.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart as of the 5th of November 2023

Friday, the 10th of November, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s number came in with an unexpected positive gain of 0.2%, this GDP report is anticipated to show no change. The GBP/USD jumped in value on Friday and financial institutions will be geared towards behavioral sentiment most of this week, but the British GDP data could cause a reaction before going into the weekend.

Friday, the 10th of November, U.S Preliminary Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – the reading is expected to be slightly below last month’s outcome. U.S consumers remain a strong point of light for the U.S Federal Reserve. American consumers have remained spenders, although they have seemingly curtailed purchases of large ticket items such as cars and big appliances. If this data comes in weaker than expected it could propel more selling of the USD. A stronger number than anticipated could spook financial institutions and cause a slight surge in buying of the USD.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

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10. NBA: Welcome to Victor Wembanyama’s world. VW’s 5th game as a Spur was historic last night.

9. South Africa: The Springboks Rugby World Cup victory is helping unifying the nation and giving all its citizens a hope for better days.

8. Book: The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn.

7. Crypto: Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all counts. Yet, Bitcoin is near 34,600.00 USD per coin.

6. Risks: Signs of appetite as U.S equity indices have moved higher, and U.S Treasury yields have declined.

5. Gold: The precious metal still lingering near 2000.00 USD and may attract bearish speculative positions.

4. Middle East: Global financial institutions appear to have dealt with the noise.

3. U.S Jobs Reports: Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings inflation data will be published today and shake markets.

2. Federal Reserve: The U.S central bank may have reached the end of it interest rates hikes cycle.

1. USD: The world’s reserve currency remains suspiciously strong and if it is a relatively calm today and this weekend, day traders may begin to embrace selling wagers.

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Ready for Risks as Nervous Markets Await Plenty of Outcomes

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Ready for Risks as Nervous Markets Await Plenty of Outcomes

So you want to be a trader. You imagine that it will be fun and possibly easy to make money from the comfort of a cafe, office, maybe a bus or subway train with a simple touch to an app on your phone that allows seamless possibilities to take advantage of trends that are easy to spot. Yet, this may not be the week to decide on beginning your endeavor, perhaps you will want to watch the global markets and learn from the possible mistakes of others in the coming days.

Simple trends for the moment have largely disappeared and financial markets face a rather important week of data and global risk events that not even the most experienced trader can comfortably embrace. Risk events will shadow this week of trading. There will be a lot of drums beating and earplugs are recommended for speculators.

To get started the war in the Middle East, actually the war between Israel and Hamas is ongoing and it will not end soon. Israel doesn’t want U.S ground troops and while some media sources may make these claims, it is extremely unlikely to happen. Yes, the U.S has sent war ships to the Mediterranean, but this is largely to suggest to Iran that the nation not become overtly active in the conflict.

Global investors who have been around the block and have traded when other conflicts have escalated – Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, African wars, and simmering feuds between China and India are somewhat used to these news flows and developing crisis forays. It does not make things easier, but at the same time being able to separate the noise from the actual reality of these events is essential. Learning to be mindful of the media and its frequent empty hyperbole regarding what could happen next is vital. Traders need to be critical thinkers.

If a day trader can step away from concerns regarding conflicts and focus on how behavioral sentiment is going to develop via the gyrations of financial institutions and larger investors, they will go a long way in starting to pursue a more tranquil path and find the ability to organize their thoughts quietly.

Gold is flirting with the 2000.00 USD mark per ounce. U.S indices continue to trade near lows and risk adverse tendencies will likely continue to flourish in the near term. There is a parade of important data releases and rhetoric that will come this week. Traders who are technically driven should consider paying attention to the economic reports and pronouncements that will come as they mix with business outlooks and varying time frames that must be considered when making bets on the financial markets.

Most of Monday’s economic reports are in already. Australia posted better than expected Retail Sales. German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product statistics came in with a slightly better than anticipated number, although growth is still negative.

Tuesday, 31st of October, China Manufacturing PMI – economic data from China came in slightly better than expected the past week, but shadows lurk and the manufacturing numbers will help provide insights regarding headwinds the nation is facing. The USD/CNY remains at elevated levels. Transparency remains a desire for international investors who want to participate in China.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 30th October 2023

Tuesday, 31st of October, Bank of Japan – the BoJ is expected to make no changes to interest rate policy (you have heard this song before), but the USD/JPY remains near the 150.000 level and the Bank of Japan is not comfortable with this higher ratio. The question remains how they can combat this value properly. By suggesting the notion the BoJ can intervene when they want to, can keep financial institutions from over aggressively buying the USD/JPY. Expect to hear some of these intervention warnings again tomorrow.

Wednesday, 1st of November, U.S Federal Reserve Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – Jerome Powell made it pretty clear in mid-October the U.S Fed will likely not raise its interest rate at this meeting. However, he warned the potential exist to raise rates down the road if inflation shows unwanted sparks. American consumers are a reason for concern too, although the Fed will not admit this – the U.S Fed would like to see less consumer demand which they believe would help decrease inflation. Problematically, U.S Treasuries are not only sticking near higher yields because of the potential of higher interest rates, but they are also being bought as a safe haven because of Middle East worries. This will continue to put pressure on the U.S government because paying off bonds with higher yielding rates of returns to investors can become increasingly difficult, particularly when U.S government spending appears to be nearly out of control.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 30th October 2023

Thursday, 2nd of November, U.K BoE Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary – no changes are expected by the Bank of England. Perhaps like the ECB last week the Bank of England will try to ‘sound’ a sedate level of rhetoric and say they are monitoring economic conditions which remain rather lackluster, but are showing slight signs of improvement via inflation and potential growth. The GBP/USD continues to fight near lows and the 1.20000 level is likely an important juncture.

Friday, 3rd of November, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs numbers are expected to come in less than the previous month’s results. The wages report could be important if there is a significant change not corresponding with the estimate. Inflation needs to show signs of decreasing before the U.S Fed backs down from its aggressive interest rate stance, if the Average Hourly Earnings number remains stubborn, so will the U.S Fed.

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Inflation Data and Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Inflation Data and Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Last week’s economic data ended with rather tantalizing headline jobs numbers as the U.S showed more hiring than expected, but while this grabbed media soundbites in many circles – the Average Hourly Earnings numbers came in below expectations. The broad Forex market proved dynamic with a stronger USD in many cases, but intriguingly equity markets in the States generated upwards momentum on Friday too. U.S Treasuries were mixed regarding their yields, and the 10-year bond while finishing up for the week was below its highs.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th of Oct. 2023

The coming week will likely continue to produce nervousness, but outlook will be helped via a couple of U.S inflation reports and the FOMC Meeting Minutes report. Crude Oil prices should be watched as news from the Middle East unfolds. Gold remains under pressure.

Cryptocurrency speculators should keep their eyes on Binance Coin as it battles important lows. Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, but BNB/USD is near crucial support that could signal another wave of pressure is developing within the Binance exchange.

Monday, the 9th of October, International Monetary Fund – week-long meetings get underway and investors who participate in global stock markets and bonds should pay attention to the chatter.

Tuesday, the 10th of October, Central Bank Officials speaking – ECB President Lagarde will be speaking at the IMF conference. Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at meetings in the U.S. While the chatter may cause some nervous reactions briefly in financial institutions, it is unlikely the central bankers will say anything that is surprising.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S Producer Price Index – the broad and core reports should be watched. Last week’s lower Average Hourly Earnings numbers were slightly surprising, but the recent higher energy costs could factor into the PPI results. The broad report is anticipated to show a decline. If the Producer Price Index statistics come in weaker than expected this could help the USD lose some strength.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication is expected to follow the rhetoric already voiced by the Fed at their last press conference. However, insights regarding dialogue could move the needle in Forex. The U.S central bank is widely expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate in November, but what comes beyond this anticipated move is still in question. Expect the key word in the FOMC report to be ‘inflation’.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.K Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers from Great Britain are expected to show a slight rise in GDP. If the gains match expectations or come in better it could help bolster the GBP/USD which has been struggling against the USD for the past three months.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.S Consumer Price Index – these reports will be crucial and will impact Forex and equities immediately after their release. While the Core CPI number is expected to match last month’s outcome, the broad reports are anticipated to be weaker. If the inflation numbers are stronger than expected the USD could gain strength, if the results are weaker it could help build selling momentum in the USD.

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USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 9th Oct. 2023

Friday, the 13th of October, China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the two releases will be watched carefully by investors. China’s economic data has been weak and financial institutions have become concerned by deflation. The USD/CNY may be impacted upon the publication of the reports.

Friday, the 13th of October, U.S Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – following the CPI numbers from the U.S on Thursday, these numbers will show the attitude of U.S consumers and their spending habits. Financial institutions will monitor these numbers and correlate them to the U.S inflation reports seen earlier.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Niblets for Friday 6th of October

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10. World Cups: Big weekend ahead in Rugby and Cricket international competitions.

9. Book: Darkness at Noon by Arthur Koestler.

8. Travel Tip: The Western Cape of South Africa.

7. Inflation: Dramatic increases in costs of food globally causing nutrition concerns.

6. Jobs: U.S Non-Farm Employment Change data on the calendar.

5. Music: “In a Sentimental Mood” by Duke Ellington and John Coltrane.

4. Gold: Precious metal still languishing as USD remains strong amidst nervousness.

3. Salaries: U.S Average Hourly Earnings statistics results today will be a catalyst.

2. USD: Major currencies still weak as strength of USD causes duress.

1. U.S Indices: Equities behavioral sentiment appears fragile in stock markets.