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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays for the 15th of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays for the 15th of March 2024

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10. Argentina: President Javier Milei is practicing fiscal sanity. The health of the Argentine Peso has improved, and monthly inflation data has begun to show signs of erosion.

9. Copper: The commodity has shown a steady increase since the 9th of February and is challenging values last seen in April of 2023. Demand could signal better global economic outlooks emerging.

8. Gold: The precious metal is near 2167.00 USD which appears high momentarily, this as questions about USD near-term direction lurks and Forex remains choppy.

7. Aramco: Profits for the energy producer were an approximately 121 billion USD for 2023, this as Saudi Arabia is propelling the nation’s infrastructure towards an elite future.

6. Bubble Watch: Binance Coin is around 580.00 USD as of this writing. BNB/USD was near 200.00 in the middle of October 2023.

5. Centrists: Will the adults be allowed back into the political arena to govern and brush away populists?

4. Inflation: Consumer prices are causing pain and household arrears are growing. Total U.S credit card debt is estimated over 1 trillion USD by the Reserve Bank of New York.

3. China: New Home Prices are still losing value via data released today. And the Shanghai Composite Index is near 3050.00 which looks suspiciously like a member of the ‘too expensive club’.

2. Data: U.S Producer Price Index stats were sharply higher yesterday, while Retail Sales came in below estimates. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings will be published today. The U.S economic outlook remains murky.

1. Prediction: Fed’s FOMC meeting next week will provide financial institutions cautious ‘vanilla’ remarks about monetary policy from Jerome Powell, meaning market conditions will likely continue to move sideways.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

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10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Views for the 15th of December

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Views for the 15th of December

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10. Book: Doctor Zhivago by Boris Pasternak.

9. Music: Moanin’ – Charles Mingus Big Band 93 Nostalgia in Times Square. Fantastic jazz.

8. Cryptocurrencies: Game of double dare continues as BTC/USD trades near 42,600.00. ETH/USD resides around 2,250.00. USDT remains at 1.00 and BNB/USD (yes, from the much criticized Binance operation) hovers near 250.00. Be careful out there, folks.

7. Argentina: Newly elected President Javier Milei has begun to enact economic reforms as the nation’s citizens and businesses hunger for better days. Will the Argentine Peso begin to stabilize?

6. South Africa: As the nation celebrates a public holiday for its Rugby World Cup victory today, it should be asked if the people are ready to vote for a political change in 2024? Or have things not gotten bad enough yet?

5. Central Banks: Federal Reserve ‘officially’ turned to a neutral/ almost soft monetary policy stance on Wednesday, the BoE and ECB followed Fed’s dance steps yesterday. GBP and EUR have gained and look intent to flirt with July 2023 values.

4. U.S Treasuries: Yields continue to erode and are near values seen half a year ago, with further decreases seemingly ready to occur mid-term.

3. Commodities: Gold is producing near-term speculative upwards muscle. Copper traders appear to be eyeing higher values.

2. JPY: Price velocity has propelled the USD/JPY to fresh lows, this as the currency pair gains speculative interest and behavioral sentiment shifts.

1. All Time Value: Dow Jones Industrials has achieved record heights. Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices at one year highs as investors show risk appetite.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Feast for the 24th of November

by with No Comment AMT MarketsEquitiesFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Feast for the 24th of November

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10. Book: A Thanksgiving Diet – Life as a Glutton by T.M.F Resuscitate.

9. Music: Frank Sinatra singing Somethin’ Stupid.

8. Global Commerce: London Metal Exchange and Baltic Exchange Dry Index prices are higher since September lows.

7. Post Holiday Warning: Trading volumes will be light today, day traders should expect quiet markets and sudden bursts of volatility. Early reactions next week may result in reversals due to perceived lack of price equilibriums having occured via today’s results, this as U.S financial institutions return in full to their offices Monday and Tuesday.

6. Election Surprises: Argentina and the Netherlands point to seismic changes in voting sentiment. India, South Africa and the U.S have major elections coming in 2024.

5. Crytocurrencies: Binance legal problems in the U.S casting shadows of doubt, but BNB/USD has been somewhat stable. Bitcoin – yes, a digital asset – is above 37,000.00 USD as of this writing.

4. Gold: Price of the precious metal remains slightly below 2000.00 USD level.

3. Energy Prices: WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Gasoline remain within sight of one year lows, but intriguing support levels for speculators with long-term outlooks.

2. U.S Equity Indices: Stocks will trade in shortened sessions today. The major indices are within sight of one year highs. Next week could see positive momentum sustained.

1. Forex: USD within an intriguing near-term price range. GBP, JPY and NZD are some of the major currencies showing signs of potential strength versus the ‘greenback’ as outlooks seemingly shift.

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Alert: Important Support in View for Binance Coin Traders

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Alert: Important Support in View for Binance Coin Traders

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BNB/USD One Year Chart as of 17th August 2023

Important support for BNB/USD is now being battled. The price of Binance coin is near a key inflection value of 230.00 USD. The digital asset world including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has taken on stronger selling recently. Legal issues surrounding Binance have not gone away, nor will they. If Binance starts to show stronger price velocity lower it could spook the broad cryptocurrency market in a large manner. Binance is still the biggest crypto exchange in the world, even as it has come under the investigative pressures of the U.S and some European nations.

Traders should pay attention to ‘stablecoins’ as a barometer of behavioral sentiment in the cryptocurrency landscape. Tether should be watched closely. If USDT sustains value below the 1.00000 USD level for more than a couple of days this would be a negative signal that ‘players’ in the cryptocurrency world are getting more nervous.

Bitcoin is also seeing steady selling early this morning and the price of BTC/USD is near 28,550.00 as of this writing. If BTC/USD were to break below the 28,000.00 this could also add to fear and noise in the cryptocurrency world.

The next seemingly important level for BNB/USD below is around the 225.00 USD mark if tested, if this level proved vulnerable and trading momentum continued downward stronger selling could develop if panic erupts surrounding Binance coin. Traders should be very careful in the cryptocurrency trading environment right now. Legal shadows hovering over Binance have existed for a long-time, and if selling pressure were to mount and values are suddenly tested from June of last year when the 200.00 BNB/USD level was last tested (this as FTX collapsed) this would clearly not be a good signal.

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Anxiety and Surprising U.S Data for Day Traders to Consider

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Anxiety and Surprising U.S Data for Day Traders to Consider

Global central banks stayed in their anticipated lanes last week as the Fed and ECB raised their key lending rates. The BoJ has admitted it is allowing its yield curve to increase, meaning the Japan government is cutting back on purchases of Japanese bonds. Forex produced anxiety and choppy results for day traders.

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Gold 6 Months Chart as of 30 July 2023

Economic data from the U.S last week provided a strong Gross Domestic Product result on Thursday, and followed with weaker than expected Personal Consumption Expenditures and Personal Income statistics before going into the weekend. Meaning the U.S economy appears to be surprisingly solid, while inflation pressures do indicate they are in decline. The Forex market turned volatile on Thursday and Friday, gold which traded at nearly 1980.00 USD on Thursday went into the weekend near 1959.00.

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VIX Index 1 Year Chart as of 30 July 2023

Stock markets in the U.S via the major indices continue to incrementally rise and folks waiting for a big sustained selloff are having their patience tested. Perceived volatility in U.S markets is very low and the VIX (Volatility Index) indicates many investors are not taking the time to hedge with options because their confidence is remarkably high. A cautious reminder for traders, one bad day could change all of the optimistic sentiment.

In the cryptocurrency world, folks should continue to keep their eyes on the Binance exchange and its Binance coin. Many digital assets seem to be suspiciously close to important support levels as this week begins and appear vulnerable.

Monday, 31st of July, China Manufacturing PMI – while U.S data surprisingly improves, China has not begun to show signs of a positive turnaround quite yet, and this reading is expected to be below last month’s outcome. China data is a solid barometer of global economic health and traders should give these results proper attention.

Monday, 31st of July, E.U Consumer Price Index Flash Estimates – the European CPI numbers are expected to come in slightly below the previous month’s reading. If for some reason these inflation numbers are higher than expected, this could cause some chaos briefly for the EUR/USD. A weaker number however offers no sound wagering basis for short-term day traders either. Behavioral sentiment appears to be ruling the EUR/USD landscape for the time being, and technical levels should be watched.

Tuesday, 1st of August, Australia Reserve Bank Cash Rate – the RBA is expected to follow in the footsteps of the Fed and ECB and raise its lending rate by 0.25%.

Tuesday, 1st of August, E.U Manufacturing PMI – Germany and France are anticipated to produce similar results to last month’s outcomes. Recessionary pressures are a concern in the E.U and better than expected numbers would be welcomed, but this may prove difficult to demonstrate as economic conditions remain challenging.

Tuesday, 1st of August, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – the results from the manufacturing sector in the States should be watched. A slight improvement is expected, but the reading is not expected to produce a wildly optimistic result. An outcome which slightly beats expectations, but is not too strong might make the USD slightly weaker. Global investment institutions are likely hoping for any signs that the Federal Reserve will have to become less aggressive. A lackluster to ‘fair’ ISM Manufacturing PMI result could be evidence larger Forex traders want to see if they are aiming for bearish momentum in the USD.

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NZD/USD 3 Months Chart as of 30 July 2023

Wednesday, 2nd of August, New Zealand Employment Change – the jobs statistics are expected to show slightly weaker results from the nation. The NZD/USD remains within the lower elements of its long-term price range. There are many NZD/USD bullish traders waiting for a sustained reversal higher, but it is unlikely to be produced from these New Zealand jobs numbers.

Thursday, 3rd of August, U.K BoE Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate – the Bank of England remains in a difficult spot and it will likely raise interest rates by another 0.25%. Criticism of the Bank of England has been loud in Britain, but the BoE likely feels it has to remain in line with the Fed and ECB. Recessionary pressures continue in the U.K and inflation remains problematic. Concerns will be heard regarding property mortgages for home owners if the BoE hikes. The GBP/USD will certainly move depending on the rhetoric from the Monetary Policy Summary and talking points delivered by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.

Friday, 4th of August, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs data parade will climax at the end of the week, this after starting on Wednesday via the ADP jobs numbers. Investors will watch the Non-Farm Employment Change data carefully and correlate them to the better than expected GDP results from the 27th of July. The wages data from the Average Hourly Earnings is expected to come in with a slight decrease. A weaker inflation result from the wages statistics could cause additional softness in the USD. However, recent data from the U.S has been hard to predict correctly, and day traders may want to sit on the sidelines until all the jobs numbers are digested.

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Week Ahead: Inflation will be the Crucial Word for Investors

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Week Ahead: Inflation will be the Crucial Word for Investors

Last week finished with another reminder that inflation cannot be easily scoffed at by investors who continue to believe higher prices will eventually slowdown. Average Hourly Earnings last Friday came in above the expectation and this was enough to rattle Wall Street again, which saw the major equity indices decline and bond yields incrementally rise. Inflation ‘talk’ will remain important this week because of coming U.S data.

Real Estate including REITS becoming a Topic of Discussion as Mortgages Rise

Market watchers should also pay attention to news regarding mortgages on residential homes, and listen for troubles from the commercial real estate market, as these sectors deal with rising interest rates in the U.S and U.K. Increased nervousness within these markets could have an affect on behavioral sentiment. Let’s remember the catalyst for the financial crisis of 2007 was the real estate sector.

Which brings us back to inflation and the growing acceptance among investors the U.S Federal Reserve may be ‘forced’ to hike the Federal Funds Rate on the 26th of July, if price data continues to come in ‘hot’. Some investors will likely be heard saying an increase of 0.25% has already been factored into marketplace, but the prospect of another hike in late 2023 could be problematic. Forex, gold and bonds dynamics will tell us a lot when this week concludes regarding outlooks.

BNB/USD Price Should be Monitored as Binance Trembles

An outside source of financial and speculative news is likely to come from cryptocurrency. If you are gambling on this asset class (or should we say commodity based on hot air) and like the adventure of wagering, please continue to pay attention to Binance which is showing signs of duress. If the Binance cryptocurrency exchange shows additional signs of pressure on its BNB (Binance Coin), trading waters within the world of crypto could trigger additional drowning victims. If you thought the Sam Bankman-Fried story made interesting news last year regarding fraud and other criminal activity, the FTX saga could prove to be only the tip of the iceberg.

Data Events Ahead to Watch

Monday, 10th of July, China CPI and PPI – the inflation data could prove important for investors who correlate economic statistics from China into their global forecasts. Traders within India should pay attention to these Chinese price reports, because global investors are starting to shift their assets into the Nifty 50 and other NSE equities because of risk and reward equations.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 9th July 2023

Tuesday, 11th of July, U.K Claimant Count Change and Average Earnings Index – the numbers need to be watched by GBP/USD speculators. The results from the U.K will be intriguing because of employment results, but more importantly for inflation concerns and the knock-on effects. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is speaking a few times this week, and this includes Wednesday the 12th of July, when he will talk about the Financial Stability Report. The GBP/USD has moved towards monthly highs recently.

Wednesday, 12th of July, New Zealand RBNZ Official Bank Rate – NZD/USD day traders will want to pay attention to the central bank’s Rate Statement. While no increase of interest rates is predicted, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at a minimum will likely have to admit inflation remains a concern.

Wednesday, 12th of July, U.S Consumer Price Index – the inflation reports from the States will have all eyes on the outcomes of the monthly and annual comparisons, including the Core numbers. The results from these inflation statistics will certainly cause momentary volatility within Forex with the USD as the focal point.

Wednesday, 12th of July, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – the Bank of Canada is expected to hike its interest rate by 0.25% to the 5.00% mark. USD/CAD will react to the BoC Rate Statement based on its outlook.

Thursday, 13th of July, U.K Gross Domestic Product – the ‘growth’ numbers are not expected to be positive. A drop of minus -0.3% is the expectation. Talk of recessionary pressures in Great Britain will be heard. Unfortunately, the discussion about a struggling economy, mixed with stubborn higher prices for consumers and mortgage rates that are rising will not make for calm stomachs. U.K equity results via the FTSE 100 Index should be monitored.

Thursday, 13th of July, U.S PPI – the Producer Price Index figures will be the last cog within the important inflation data for the week. Stubborn prices for wholesale goods are a concern, because the costs to consumers becomes more expensive when there are higher price pressures.

Friday, 14th of July, U.S Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – if the Consumer Sentiment readings from the UofM report improves, and the U.S inflation data which was released earlier this week has proven stubborn, this could become a source of pain for investors who may be forced to consider the Fed will not only raise the Federal Funds Rate late July, but later in 2023 also. Short-term traders should monitor this report accordingly.