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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

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10. Word of the day: Ultracrepidarian is a person who speaks assertively about subjects that are beyond their level of knowledge. The world is full of many suspects ladies and gentlemen.

9. Steve Albini: The musician and production sound engineer passed away earlier this week in Chicago. Albini was a pioneer and leader in ‘alternative’ music and battled homogenized corporate music for nearly 40 years. Nirvana, Fugazi, Jimmy Page, the Pixies, P.J Harvey are some of the many that worked with Albini.

8. Bitcoin: BTC/USD continues to hover around the 63,000.00 realm per a three month technical chart perspective. Bitcoin’s higher values via one year results are being maintained. BNB/USD is lurking near 600.00 per a three month glance.

7. Commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices remain elevated. After touching a low around the 7,250.00 USD mark last week per metric ton, Cocoa is now within sight of 9,000.00 USD again. Retail speculators who like to wager via CFDs on commodities need to remember their bets have no influence on the markets, which are in complete control by the largest players in the commodities sector.

6. Wayve Technologies: A U.K based company specializing in autonomous driving software has announced they have raised more than 1 billion USD in investments recently via the likes of Softbank, Nvidia and Microsoft. The U.K government has highlighted Wayve, proclaiming it shows Britain will be a major force in AI development. Wayve was established in 2017 and is still a privately held company.

5. U.S Foreign Policy: Election concerns appear to be a prime motivator for the U.S executive branch as its attempts to walk a fine line regarding diplomacy and saber-rattling in the Middle East. Polling from a variety of sources indicate Joe Biden is in jeopardy of not being reelected.

4. USD/CNY: China will release its Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers early on Saturday. The USD/CNY is trading around the 7.2245 mark as of this writing. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the China Yuan weakening via attempts by the Chinese government to boost exports. The USD/CNY certainly remains within the higher elements of its range, but is below marks seen in early September 2023 which were around the 7.3425 ratio.

3. Data Warning: While day traders may be inclined to look at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading today, they should remember to pay attention to the Inflation Expectations statistics. Last month’s inflation report produced a result of 3.2%, which delivered a solid dose of volatility to financial assets.
2. Forex: Behavioral sentiment appears to be leaning towards a weaker outlook for the USD as major currencies like the EUR, GBP (solid GDP numbers also helped this morning in Britain) and others have gained. However, its should be pointed out that the USD/JPY has seen an incremental climb since touching a low of nearly 151.880 last Friday. As of this writing the USD/JPY is around the 155.650 level.

1. Equity Indices: Bullish optimism has been seen in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq as all three major indices are ready to start the day near highs for the week. The burst of upwards momentum which started last Thursday, has ignited the major U.S indices within sight of their apex realms achieved in late March and early April.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

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10. Word of the day: Ultracrepidarian is a person who speaks assertively about subjects that are beyond their level of knowledge. The world is full of many suspects ladies and gentlemen.

9. Steve Albini: The musician and production sound engineer passed away earlier this week in Chicago. Albini was a pioneer and leader in ‘alternative’ music and battled homogenized corporate music for nearly 40 years. Nirvana, Fugazi, Jimmy Page, the Pixies, P.J Harvey are some of the many that worked with Albini.

8. Bitcoin: BTC/USD continues to hover around the 63,000.00 realm per a three month technical chart perspective. Bitcoin’s higher values via one year results are being maintained. BNB/USD is lurking near 600.00 per a three month glance.

7. Commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices remain elevated. After touching a low around the 7,250.00 USD mark last week per metric ton, Cocoa is now within sight of 9,000.00 USD again. Retail speculators who like to wager via CFDs on commodities need to remember their bets have no influence on the markets, which are in complete control by the largest players in the commodities sector.

6. Wayve Technologies: A U.K based company specializing in autonomous driving software has announced they have raised more than 1 billion USD in investments recently via the likes of Softbank, Nvidia and Microsoft. The U.K government has highlighted Wayve, proclaiming it shows Britain will be a major force in AI development. Wayve was established in 2017 and is still a privately held company.

5. U.S Foreign Policy: Election concerns appear to be a prime motivator for the U.S executive branch as its attempts to walk a fine line regarding diplomacy and saber-rattling in the Middle East. Polling from a variety of sources indicate Joe Biden is in jeopardy of not being reelected.

4. USD/CNY: China will release its Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers early on Saturday. The USD/CNY is trading around the 7.2245 mark as of this writing. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the China Yuan weakening via attempts by the Chinese government to boost exports. The USD/CNY certainly remains within the higher elements of its range, but is below marks seen in early September 2023 which were around the 7.3425 ratio.

3. Data Warning: While day traders may be inclined to look at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading today, they should remember to pay attention to the Inflation Expectations statistics. Last month’s inflation report produced a result of 3.2%, which delivered a solid dose of volatility to financial assets.

2. Forex: Behavioral sentiment appears to be leaning towards a weaker outlook for the USD as major currencies like the EUR, GBP (solid GDP numbers also helped this morning in Britain) and others have gained. However, its should be pointed out that the USD/JPY has seen an incremental climb since touching a low of nearly 151.880 last Friday. As of this writing the USD/JPY is around the 155.650 level.

1. Equity Indices: Bullish optimism has been seen in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq as all three major indices are ready to start the day near highs for the week. The burst of upwards momentum which started last Thursday, has ignited the major U.S indices within sight of their apex realms achieved in late March and early April.

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Cautious Trading as Key Data and Outlooks Await Impetus

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Cautious Trading as Key Data and Outlooks Await Impetus

The start of trading this week could prove to be slightly adventurous for speculators as financial institutions return to the markets and start to take positions for their clients. Having survived the past two and a half weeks of holiday season trading, market action will now focus on immediate, mid and long-term goals and outlooks depending on time frames and targets. Slightly nervous trading was on display last week, but some traders may believe their is plenty of room for more optimism and may be suspicious of the results delivered.

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Gold Five Day Chart as of 8th of January 2024

Day traders should look at some barometers before they participate in the near-term. Gold has come off highs seen late last week, but remains within the higher elements of its six month price range. Its selloff from apex values last week perhaps correlates to U.S equities and USD turbulence which has also been experienced.

Last Friday’s reaction to the U.S jobs numbers was fascinating. The numbers delivered an initial shock to folks who wanted to react quickly. Hiring the last month increased more than expected, which might have caused the momentary bullish surge in the USD. Only to be confronted swiftly by further investigation of the jobs data which showed previous months statistics had been revised downwards. This acknowledgement set off selling of the USD and technical whipsaw results.

Day traders participating in Forex this past Friday likely experienced a range of emotions. If the market correlations are correct regarding the USD and the reactions seen, trading in gold also seemed to mirror the price action. Interestingly, gold touched a low of nearly 2024.00 USD on Friday in the wake of the jobs report, surged higher to around 2064.00 and then reversed lower again.

The notion that gold is trading within sight of Friday’s lows is interesting for both the precious metal and trying to understand where USD sentiment will lean early this week.

Behavioral sentiment remains rather optimistic, however nervous headlines during the holiday season may have caused cautious shadows to grow darker, particularly as light trading volumes affected results. Today and tomorrow will prove interesting in the broad markets, this as financial institutions return in full and as they brace for U.S inflation numbers later this week.

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S&P 500 One Month Chart as of 8th of January 2024

Nervous short term trading is likely today and tomorrow as price equilibrium is sought. U.S equity indices have backed away slightly from their flirtations with all-time highs, but even as selling developed the past week highs are still in sight and are likely still being dreamed about by many institutions. U.S Treasury yields will also be a good indicator for Forex traders early this week regarding how comfortable financial institutions are with their current outlooks.

Monday, 8th of January, Germany Factory Orders – a slight gain of 0.3% was reported today, which was below the 1.1% expectation. The German economy is starting to show signs of economic growth, but has major hurdles to still climb. The lackluster German numbers may keep the ECB in a rather neutral stance for the mid-term. Which might help a bullish EUR/USD outlook if the U.S Fed is seen as the first major central bank which will have to cut interest rates.

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AUD/USD Three Month Chart as of 8th January 2024

Tuesday, 9th of January, Australia Retail Sales – the anticipated climb of 1.2% is significantly higher than the negative -0.3% result from last month. A good outcome via the Retail Sales could help the Australian Dollar reignite some positive momentum. CPI data will come from Australia on Wednesday, which will certainly affect the AUD/USD too.

Wednesday, 10th of January, U.S Ten-Year Bond Auction – though day traders may not be too involved regarding the sale of U.S Treasuries, the results from the auction will have an affect on Forex. U.S Treasury yields should be monitored.

Thursday, 11th of January, U.S Consumer Price Index – a slew of CPI results will get the attention of financial institutions. The inflation data is expected to show a slight decrease in the Core CPI result, but show a slight gain in the broad number. This will likely be the most heavily traded day since the third week of December. There will be a reaction from the inflation reports. If the numbers come in around the estimates this may help the bearish mid-term outlooks for the USD. If the results are shockingly stronger, the USD would turn bullish. Day traders need to be careful in the midst of the Consumer Price Index publications because volatility is expected.

Friday, 12th of January, China CPI – a decrease is expected from the Asian giant. Deflationary concerns are shadowing China’s economy. The expected number of minus -0.4% would actually be an improvement compared to the last reading which was minus -0.5%. The USD/CNY has been rumored to have been experiencing some ‘hands on’ management from China. Investors continue to be nervous about China’s economic outlook and would like to see signs of improvement.

Friday, 12th of January, U.K Gross Domestic Product – a gain of 0.2% is being anticipated. Any growth from the U.K GDP would be welcomed considering the recessionary data which has been lingering. The GBP/USD will react to the results and bullish momentum in the currency pair could be sparked by a better than anticipated number.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 8th of December

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentBooksFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Thoughts for the 8th of December

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10. Book: A History of Venice by John Julius Norwich.

9. Music: Gram Parsons (featuring Emmylou Harris) playing Ooh Las Vegas.

8. Artificial Intelligence: Speed and processing advances will continue to make AI a buzzword in 2024, this as quantum computing looms in the distance.

7. Trading Volumes: Speculators should note there are about two full weeks of trading left before ‘thin’ holiday markets will begin to be seen. Meaning financial institutions while being cautious, will also start to position their assets according to their outlooks for early next year.

6. Energy Sector: WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline continue to challenge support levels as long-term lows remain in sight.

5. China: Important inflation numbers via Consumer Price Index statistics will come from the nation early Saturday, negative results are expected.

4. Risk Appetite: Optimism continues to be encouraging within behavioral sentiment, this as U.S equities remain near highs, the USD leans towards a mid-term outlook with potential weakness, and gold stays above 2000.00 USD per ounce.

3. USD/JPY: Bearish momentum continues in the currency pair, price velocity built speed yesterday and this morning’s trading has been dynamic.

2. Data: U.S jobs numbers will be released today, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports will create reactions. However, unless the results are surprising, this data may simply work as an affirmation for existing risk appetite.

1. Federal Reserve: The Fed’s next FOMC Statement will be on the 13th of December, this knowledge will shadow the broad markets today and early next week.

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To Risk or Not to Risk that is the Speculative Question

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

To Risk or Not to Risk that is the Speculative Question

Last week U.S equity indices demonstrated a rise in value. The highs achieved in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 by the end of last week only touched values seen in the middle of October. And while their ratios remain below the highs of early August and falling values seen in September, the move upwards was certainly welcome by financial institutions and day traders who hold optimistic viewpoints.

U.S Treasury yields declined last week. While incremental decreases were made through Thursday, the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports both coming in below expectations on Friday, created a stronger dose of lower yields. The 5, 7, 10 and 30 year U.S Treasuries are now trading near mid-September values. The 2 and 3 year notes are moving around early September numbers.

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Gold One Year Chart as of the 5th November 2023

The USD grew weaker in slight movements against many major currencies last week, but upon the weaker jobs numbers found increased selling price velocity. Gold however remains suspiciously strong, which brings up the notion that risk adverse ‘insurance’ is still being held closely by investors who remain nervous.

The Middle East crisis is ongoing in Israel against Hamas and to a limited extent Hezbullah, but financial institutions have seemingly been able to digest the news and remain tranquil and vigilant. Another sign of calm coming into the global financial markets is the price of WTI Crude Oil which finished the week under 81.00 USD per barrel.

Economic data will be relatively light this coming week, and behavioral sentiment appears to be the potential larger factor until Friday regarding impetus for day traders and financial houses. Certainly loud global developing news could suddenly erupt and cause nervous investors to falter, but last week’s trading results showed signs of improving risk appetite.

The U.S Federal Reserve met expectations last Wednesday and didn’t raise the cost of borrowing. The mid-term seems to indicate interest rates will remain high, but that the U.S central bank will not raise the Federal Funds Rate anytime soon. The lower than expected inflation report via the Average Hourly Earnings before going into the weekend helped highlight this thinking, although it remains a consideration that is still speculative.

Officials from the major central banks including the BoJ, BoE and Fed will be speaking this week and could cause turbulence with their rhetoric. However, no major surprises will likely come from their mouths. Although the Bank of Japan may rattle the prospects of intervention to keep USD/JPY traders on their toes.

Monday, the 6th of November, Germany Factory Orders – the result is expected to be negative and highlight the nation remains within recessionary conditions. The Sentix Investor Confidence reading will also be released slightly afterwards for the European Union and a worse number than last month’s outcome is anticipated. But the EUR/USD is likely to remain mostly USD centric, even though these reports could cause momentary fluctuations.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of the 5th November 2023

Tuesday, the 7th of November, Australia Cash Rate – the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.35%. Will the RBA take a gamble and not raise the interest rate due to other major central banks holding their rates in place, or will the increase go ahead to fight stubborn inflation while trying inspire some confidence in the AUD? A hike seems to be the direction the RBA will decide upon, having said that, the Australian central bank have surprised financial institutions before.

Wednesday, the 8th of November, U.S 10-year Bond Auction – the results from this sale and the yields that develop within U.S Treasuries will have an affect on Forex. Lower yields than anticipated could signal a weaker USD. However, risk adverse elements will need to be calm for the bond auction to produce tranquil results.

Thursday, the 9th of November, China CPI and PPI – the data from these inflation reports will be watched closely. Chinese economic numbers has shown some signs of stabilization the past few weeks, both of these publications are expected to have negative outcomes. Concerns about the financial pressures domestic consumers are facing regarding housing market values in China and the way in which they spend due to lackluster prospects are concerning. The USD/CNY will be affected in the wake of these statistics, and the USD/SGD could see momentary volatility too if the results prove to be a surprise.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart as of the 5th of November 2023

Friday, the 10th of November, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s number came in with an unexpected positive gain of 0.2%, this GDP report is anticipated to show no change. The GBP/USD jumped in value on Friday and financial institutions will be geared towards behavioral sentiment most of this week, but the British GDP data could cause a reaction before going into the weekend.

Friday, the 10th of November, U.S Preliminary Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – the reading is expected to be slightly below last month’s outcome. U.S consumers remain a strong point of light for the U.S Federal Reserve. American consumers have remained spenders, although they have seemingly curtailed purchases of large ticket items such as cars and big appliances. If this data comes in weaker than expected it could propel more selling of the USD. A stronger number than anticipated could spook financial institutions and cause a slight surge in buying of the USD.

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Inflation Data and Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Inflation Data and Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes This Week

Last week’s economic data ended with rather tantalizing headline jobs numbers as the U.S showed more hiring than expected, but while this grabbed media soundbites in many circles – the Average Hourly Earnings numbers came in below expectations. The broad Forex market proved dynamic with a stronger USD in many cases, but intriguingly equity markets in the States generated upwards momentum on Friday too. U.S Treasuries were mixed regarding their yields, and the 10-year bond while finishing up for the week was below its highs.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th of Oct. 2023

The coming week will likely continue to produce nervousness, but outlook will be helped via a couple of U.S inflation reports and the FOMC Meeting Minutes report. Crude Oil prices should be watched as news from the Middle East unfolds. Gold remains under pressure.

Cryptocurrency speculators should keep their eyes on Binance Coin as it battles important lows. Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, but BNB/USD is near crucial support that could signal another wave of pressure is developing within the Binance exchange.

Monday, the 9th of October, International Monetary Fund – week-long meetings get underway and investors who participate in global stock markets and bonds should pay attention to the chatter.

Tuesday, the 10th of October, Central Bank Officials speaking – ECB President Lagarde will be speaking at the IMF conference. Federal Reserve officials will be speaking at meetings in the U.S. While the chatter may cause some nervous reactions briefly in financial institutions, it is unlikely the central bankers will say anything that is surprising.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S Producer Price Index – the broad and core reports should be watched. Last week’s lower Average Hourly Earnings numbers were slightly surprising, but the recent higher energy costs could factor into the PPI results. The broad report is anticipated to show a decline. If the Producer Price Index statistics come in weaker than expected this could help the USD lose some strength.

Wednesday, the 11th of October, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication is expected to follow the rhetoric already voiced by the Fed at their last press conference. However, insights regarding dialogue could move the needle in Forex. The U.S central bank is widely expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate in November, but what comes beyond this anticipated move is still in question. Expect the key word in the FOMC report to be ‘inflation’.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.K Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers from Great Britain are expected to show a slight rise in GDP. If the gains match expectations or come in better it could help bolster the GBP/USD which has been struggling against the USD for the past three months.

Thursday, the 12th of October, U.S Consumer Price Index – these reports will be crucial and will impact Forex and equities immediately after their release. While the Core CPI number is expected to match last month’s outcome, the broad reports are anticipated to be weaker. If the inflation numbers are stronger than expected the USD could gain strength, if the results are weaker it could help build selling momentum in the USD.

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USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 9th Oct. 2023

Friday, the 13th of October, China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the two releases will be watched carefully by investors. China’s economic data has been weak and financial institutions have become concerned by deflation. The USD/CNY may be impacted upon the publication of the reports.

Friday, the 13th of October, U.S Consumer Sentiment via the University of Michigan – following the CPI numbers from the U.S on Thursday, these numbers will show the attitude of U.S consumers and their spending habits. Financial institutions will monitor these numbers and correlate them to the U.S inflation reports seen earlier.