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Gold: Not a Love Note but Recognition of Long-Term Importance

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Gold: Not a Love Note but Recognition of Long-Term Importance

The U.S is now starting its second week of the government shutdown. Gold is near $4,190.00 as of this writing, which may be looked on as sign by some that some investors have bought into the precious metal because of a lack of faith in certain things. ‘Certain things’ being written in a way that points out the rather complex mix of perceptions that could quantify into all moving parts causing the bull run.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 15th October 2025

If you are a regular reader you will probably have figured out that I do not believe Gold is traversing higher because of a mere government shutdown. The precious metal has seen an upwards trend develop in earnest since the middle of October 2022 when it was trading around $1,640.00. Behavioral sentiment is important within Gold, and this has been the case for almost 6,000 years according to archeologists and historians.

In August 2011 Gold was near $1,900.00. In December of 2015 the precious metal was back to almost $1,000.00. This is written to show that in a little more than a four year period Gold lost nearly half its value in the relatively recent past.

This doesn’t mean I am writing to warn Gold is going to lose half its value suddenly and will be testing $2,000.00 in four years time. It points out that even though the precious metal is considered a hedge against inflation, that speculative elements are fantastically strong when large players buy and sell in unison and can cause periods in which Gold becomes overvalued and then experiences downturns.

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Gold Five Year Chart as of 15th October 2025

We have seen this bullish show in Gold before. Milestone numbers are significant in the minds of the public, which often causes the thinking that they should have bought some gold in the past when it was cheaper. But interestingly enough for Gold is that it is almost always considered expensive by the general public. The value of fiat currency is highly correlated to the value of Gold in an unflattering way. While this is an obvious statement for many, it is important to note that we are all looking at the value of Gold while using hindsight.

Yes, I can hear influencers singing in unison in the background ‘do not forget about Bitcoin’, but I ask permission to do so. Hindsight is not always comfortable and I have been proven wrong about the digital currency frequently. However, I still remain somewhat optimistic that my bet on Gold is a better wager compared to Bitcoin regarding value in the future. And by future I mean for all-time. There is not enough foresight to know what Gold will be valued in one thousand years compared to Bitcoin. Yet, I remain much more confident about Gold being around than BTC in a millennium.

People can speak about a debasement of fiat currencies, including the USD. Like it or not the USD remains the dominant go to currency of global enterprise and this is unlikely to change over the next decade. The USD and other currencies are plagued by a constant loss of overall value due to inflation caused by a myriad of reasons. Rising prices in goods are unlikely to suddenly disappear, the costs of commerce and consumer products may start to gradually slow periodically, but the price of things seldom grows cheaper over the long-term.

Yes, the case can be made that by owning Gold it does not serve the economy well, because it is not an asset that is easily spent, but that is an argument for Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman to enjoy in heaven. In the meantime down here on Earth, Gold can be speculated upon, bought and sold, and treated as a precious metal that will likely always be valued highly.

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Gold Chart Prices since 1925

This is not a love note for Gold, it is meant as a way to say the precious metal is fairly priced considering the state of the world. $4,000.00 per an ounce of Gold could certainly turn into $5,000.00 in the not so distant future – like six months or one year depending on zeal. Speculative elements certainly aim for targets that psychologically please aspirations.

Day traders as always are faced with a dilemma. Looking for more upside and partaking in the bullish trend is a logical thought and perhaps even wager, but the use of leverage while battling the intraday and intraweek reversals in the marketplace make the ambition of profiting on Gold comparable to time spent at the casino. We know winners talk much louder about their money gained compared to the losers who vanish into the crowd and keep quiet.

So I write this as a warning, Gold may not be worth more one year from now than it is today. However, I will venture forth the notion that in ten years time Gold will be significantly valued higher than it is today. Will inflation suddenly be tamed globally, will confidence in fiat currencies emerge with a strong dose of optimism? No. Certain fiat currencies will do better than others via Forex. However, as a store of value Gold will likely remain an impressive asset to own.

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Opportunity? Market Ambition as Day Trading Volatility Looms

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Opportunity? Market Ambition as Day Trading Volatility Looms

The U.S government shutdown looks like it will take place at 12:01 am EST on Wednesday, this if Washington D.C politicians fail to agree to a funding gap. There have been significant shutdowns in the past, thus financial institutions though not in love with concept are adept at continuing to trade during the events. President Trump’s first term in office produced a long shutdown from the 22nd of Dec. 2018 until the 25th of January 2019. President Obama’s White House had a 16 day affair in 2013. And President Clinton’s administration dealt with a shutdown lasting 21 days.

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S&P 500 Index Three Month Chart as of 30th September 2025

While the financial markets will certainly survive and long-term investors will likely remain rather sedate during this developing saga, day traders need to brace for volatility. Opportunities may develop if Forex, U.S equities and gold see reactions per perceived safe haven endeavors by some investors. However, wagering in markets when shifting tides are happening due to sentiment torrents could prove difficult for speculators. Timing the market and its gyrations caused by potential mood changes poses threats for small traders.

And that is why it will be important to actually remain patient in the coming days. The Democrats appear ready to try and score a political win against President Trump. But what would a win look like? The public is seldom fooled by the government shutdowns. While government offices shutter and economic data publication dates will be postponed, the rest of the world will move forward.

Day traders should not be tricked into panic. Nor should they react too fast based on fears that are not legitimate. The U.S major indices may languish during a government shutdown, but it is also conceivable that they may perform rather well. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 are all within sight of their highest realms. The USD may find some buying action, but just like trades that have already been digested into the market when the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decisions are anticipated and acted upon, speculators should be prepared for counter-intuitive moves. In other words do not be surprised if sudden reversals in Forex via the USD develop.

Traders looking for discounts to emerge will need to be careful, but if the equity markets were to suffer a strong downturn on heightened nervousness, having a longer-term approach to speculative positions could become worthwhile. Gold which is traversing within record values may prove to be a significant near-term barometer as a safe haven gauge in the coming days. But then again gold has been within a sincere bullish trend over the long-term, so buying if produced near-term needs to be looked at suspiciously. In other words, the bullish trend in gold while getting perhaps an additional dose of fuel to ignite higher because of the potential U.S government shutdown should also be treated carefully and not traded with blind ambition.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 30th September 2025

The potential of a U.S government shutdown is a big event, but it is intransigence that financial institutions and big investors do not want to see. As long as some aspects of communication are being shared transparently with the public regarding negotiations in Washington D.C, many markets are likely to remain rather unbothered. How long will the U.S government shutdown last this time? It might all depend on how long the Democrats believe they can get the most out of the shutdown if it adds to their political image.

Both the Democrats and Republicans will want to get through the coming days as unscathed as possible. Why? Because both want to retain their power. One question waiting to be answered during this conundrum is who will come out looking best? If the financial markets begin to suffer there will be a lot of finger pointing by both sides. And again, importantly, financial institutions are unlikely to be fooled. Investors want clarity, the markets will only suffer if big players feel the crisis in Washington can cause potentially long lasting damage.
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Concerns Ahead and a Potentially Noisy Week for Day Traders

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Concerns Ahead and a Potentially Noisy Week for Day Traders

In the wake of last week’s central banks follies, day traders have what may appear on the surface a rather comfortable week of economic data to consider as they make their wagers. However, there are outside risk events looming which will likely stir the emotions and positions of financial institutions, and cause knock on tremors that speculators feel caused by a noisy storm of experts and media pundits.

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SP 500 Index Three Month Chart as of 25th of Sept. 2023

U.S equity indices have struggled recently and this should be viewed as a barometer of current behavioral sentiment. Concerns regarding higher Crude Oil prices, and talk of a growing U.S political crisis as a government shutdown is threatened (remember next year’s election is shadowing all spectacles in Washington D.C presently) highlight the nervous state of affairs. The USD has been stronger and gold has remained under pressure in recent trading. Risk adverse trading is proving rather flavorful for the moment.

The ongoing strong rhetoric from the U.S Federal Reserve and what appears to be an almost certain interest rate hike in November is causing market sentiment to remain anxious. Financial institutions are not only lining up to buy U.S Treasuries, but money market funds are also being sought too which offer the ability to accumulate returns from higher interest rates. While cash is being parked in ‘sure things’ because financial institutions and large investors are keen on locking in ‘known’ returns (profits), this creates potentially less money supply for buying of U.S and global equities momentarily.

Troubling economic data continues to mire the terrain also for financial institutions, and the heightened fear is causing a reaction which day traders need to deal with as short-term volatility mounts creating dangerous speculative conditions. Consumers face a rather large bag of ‘troubles’ via higher mortgages, debt obligations on credit cards and student loans, and inflation costs. Yet, intriguingly the U.S economy has shown resilience which is almost perplexing.

Current behavioral sentiment appears fragile and ready to crack open into a chaotic storm if too much pressure is exerted. Day traders should be cautious this week because plenty of diatribes and warnings are sure to be heard. Unfortunately the warnings being heard now for this coming week could prove correct.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 25th Sept. 2023

Monday, 25th September, Germany Business Climate via Ifo – investors will keep their eyes on the sentiment reading from Germany which is expected to be worse than last month’s results. The EUR/USD is trading at six month lows.

Tuesday, 26th September, U.S CB Consumer Confidence – the result is anticipated to be slightly negative compared to last month’s outcome. U.S consumers have remained strong and financial institutions will want to see if they remain optimistic regarding their outlooks. The outcome could affect the USD, particularly if the number is weaker than expected.

Wednesday, 27th September, U.S Durable Goods Orders – this report could prove noteworthy via the broad and core reports. Durable Goods Orders are a relatively important barometer on U.S big ticket spending and demand. The numbers are likely to cause a rumble in U.S equity markets.

Thursday, 28th September, Germany CPI – the inflation results will be watched carefully by EUR/USD speculators. Higher prices in Germany are not welcome and a larger number than anticipated would be troubling.

Thursday, 28th September, U.S GDP – the Gross Domestic Product data from the States on Thursday will be closely monitored and likely provide impetus for Forex and major indices. If the growth numbers are stronger than expected this will serve as another nail for the U.S Federal Reserve to hit when it makes its case for another interest rate hike. While it is good the U.S economic growth numbers have been relatively strong, better than expected data could play into U.S Treasury yields remaining high and spark additional complex considerations for investors.

Friday, 29th September, Canada GDP – the data from Canada is expecting a negative ‘growth’ result which would have an affect on the USD/CAD.

Friday, 29th September, U.S University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – the revised numbers will give insights into American spending habits. The previous two months have been more lower than anticipated, this outcome is expected to produce a reading of 67.7.

Saturday, 30th September, China Manufacturing PMI – while the Purchasing Managers Index reports from China are forecast to show slight improvements, analysts remain worried about economic conditions in the nation. Transparency remains a focal point for investors who want to make sure the results they are being given are accurate.