postN75

U.S National Security, Part 3: Don’t Underemphasize Freedom

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

U.S National Security, Part 3: Don't Underemphasize Freedom

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 30th of December via The Angry Demagogue.

 
postN75

Conclusion

The post-Cold War world that the Strategy Paper tries to figure out is much more than the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of China. One of the main goals of the Trump administration is to turn the clock back on “globalization”, be it via tariffs, other economic ways or even, military means.

While the world is panicking over AI’s destruction of good white collar jobs, it has, paradoxically, created a world where the auto industry can’t find enough qualified mechanics at nice six figure salaries. Not even ten years ago the journalists were haranguing out of work blue collar workers with “go learn to code”, the beer guzzling crew can now tell the tearful journalists and Hollywood “writers” who can’t write better than AI to “go learn how to weld” (or at least handle a screwdriver). But the strategic issues we are facing go beyond manufacturing jobs.

The challenge to the United States and to other free countries is how to handle a new reality where massive debt threatens the diminution, if not the destruction, of the life style we have all come to take for granted and where revanchist regimes don’t quite understand that their power and “prestige” is a result of what has been built in those free countries they want to replace. China, like Russia, Iran, Turkey, Qatar and the non-state actors like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Moslem Brotherhood and others don’t quite understand that while they can use, and even sometimes improve on what freedom has provided them, they will stagnate once they attain their goal of defeating and destroying the free world.

As advanced as China becomes and even if it flies to the moon, overtakes the United States in AI and quantum computing and manages to make the United States into only the breadbasket of the world, they will stagnate as only free markets and free people can move the world to the next step. Growth can only be accomplished by free people. True enough, the economy often grows in ways that we don’t always like, the alternative is stagnation and a return to the pre-scientific age. For all the talk of “new man” and “progress” and everything else that the Soviet Union strived to create, they produced no medicines, no medical devices and no medical treatments.

Therefore, the defeat of the revanchist world and the preservation of freedom needs to be the paramount goal of American foreign policy. This does not mean the creation of democracies where none have ever existed and it does not mean sending troops in every time a political prisoner is arrested or even a plan to militarily defeat the CCP, but it does mean always supporting free countries against the unfree even when the United States is also “friends” with the unfree one.

This means that it will also give free countries leeway when their interests do not align perfectly with America’s (non-core) interests. America as sole protector of the free world has leverage that America as midwife to a set of regional alliances does not. This is a choice that America can make and a correct reading of the Strategy Paper tells us that the United States no longer wants to or can be the main power in every region in the world. This means that there needs to be a change in attitude in America so that it cannot force its will on its allies just because there is another contract to be had or another “cause” that has caught the eye of the country’s establishment.

Encouraging regional alliances of free countries such as the new Eastern-Med Alliance that has already been established between Greece, Cyprus and Israel is a prime example. In addition to the economic cooperation there has been joint defense training and there are agreements that will lead to a defense cooperation pact if not a NATO-like security treaty. Turkey is the common competitor, or enemy, of these three countries. Turkey claims certain Greek islands, occupies parts of Cyprus and has designs on Israel as it strives to be the Islamic “liberator” of Jerusalem. There are gas exploration agreements and cooperation and there would have been a pipeline to Europe if the Biden administration had not stopped it (while they approved the Russian-German pipeline).

Italy ought to be a natural member of the East-Med Alliance and maybe the dissolution of NATO will make them realize that they have more in common with Israel and Greece than they think they do. If Italy were to join then that would create a powerful naval and air deterrence of free countries against aggressors in the eastern Mediterranean. The addition of Malta, a small but strategically important country south of Sicily would provide naval bases that could control the sea lanes between north Africa and Europe helping to stem illegal migration and Turkish attempts to control those same lanes. Malta also brings with it a history of defeating Suleiman the Magnificent in a four month siege when the Ottomans tried to conquer this important island. As we stated before, the United States as a “midwife” to alliances cannot instruct countries on their own national interests. That means that allies of the United States will clash but America must always come down on the side of the free countries and not the revanchist power – in this case, Turkey.

There are of course other regional alliances that can come into being and a remake of the post-WWII world is in order. The end of the cold war created economic booms across the globe raising hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, but recent decades have seen an increase in terror and tyranny and that itself needs to be dealt with. If not by the United States alone then by the US along with the regional alliances that the Strategy Paper has highlighted and we have demarcated (partially) here. But concepts like “territorial integrity” (see Syria, Somalia and the rest of Africa) and “sovereignty” have lost their moral imperative as they are used as excuses by tyrants (and their enablers at the UN) to further their cruelty. One of the faults of the old “liberal international order” has been allowing tyrannies the same rights and respect as free countries. During the Cold War, when nuclear war loomed, this might have made sense but after the fall of the Soviet Union these “principles” have created more harm than good.

In the National Security Strategy of the administration, the words “free” and “freedom” appear twenty times, but never in the context of an alliance of free countries. While it speaks of freedom of religion and speech and free markets it never speaks of the need to put allies that are free ahead of friends that are not free. Allies are those countries that share values and will come to your aid because of that. Friends, in international affairs, are those that look to short-term gain and have no desire to further your values or interests. There is no reason that the United States, in its current fiscal condition needs to fight the fight of freedom around the world alone, but neither can it abandon that fight in the pursuit of short-term contracts or frivolous causes.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

post 183

An India-Israel Alliance: Prospects to Serve Global Freedom

by with No Comment BusinessCorporateFeatured Highlights

An India-Israel Alliance: Prospects to Serve Global Freedom

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

We wrote a few weeks ago in response to Nassim Taleb’s claim that Israel was fragile due to its over-dependence on the United States, and we came to the conclusion that in general he was correct although not in every aspect Is Israel a Fragile Country?.

Also, we compared Israel’s fragility with that of other free or status-quo countries (as opposed to revolutionary countries like Russia, Iran and China) and thought that Israel was certainly not more fragile than other free countries in difficult neighborhoods.  We then gave a general outline of how the free-status-quo world might look should we actually see the end of America’s commitment to global freedom The Day After Pax Americana.  

I would like to examine in a more detailed way about Israel and India and how their potential relationship could be a model for this world. With the U.S reluctantly and belatedly responding to attacks from Iranian backed groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen and their stubborn resistance to attacking Iran itself each free or status-quo country needs to look into its own defense. The U.S also needs to see how it can help midwife these alliances so as to guarantee a free world after their voluntary end to the Pax Americana.

Israel will need  to expand its reach and move towards a more anti-fragile existence without damaging the all important U.S relationship. We can’t underestimate the importance of the U.S relationship to Israel and how important it is to maintain and even expand it – but as the U.S political landscape is changing and as the elite part of the younger generation is, for some reason, excusing violence against Jews in general and Israel in particular, Israel needs new strategic partners if it is to thrive and move at least part of the way towards anti-fragility.

post 183

Israel’s relationships with the Arab world, the Abraham Accords along with its older peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt are dependent upon dictators remaining in power. The most vocal and belligerent voice against Israel by a government in the (non-Iranian influenced) Arab comes from Jordan and the most vocal and belligerent non-governmental voice in the (non-Iranian influenced) Arab world probably comes from Egypt. These treaties are all important and they are based upon the self interest of the current rulers of the countries (which is a good thing), but no one can know how long they can last and how firm they really are.

Israel also has a strong and growing relationship with Greece and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean and have joint military exercises together. Their navies and air forces train together and even their ground forces have joint exercises but neither of those two countries have the economic, military or diplomatic heft that Israel needs.

If Israel is looking for a second strong ally but one that itself lives in a dangerous neighborhood then the place to turn to is India. With the largest population in the world, a democratic government and a growing economy, India is the ideal strategic ally for Israel. Both are countries that live in dangerous neighborhoods, are working democracies and have experience dealing with terrorism. India, under with the premiership of Narendra Modi already has a strong relationship with the Israeli military. Israel has sold more than $600 million worth of military equipment to India (second only to Russia) and the two militaries have cooperated on anti-terror policy. The Israeli navy also reportedly has close ties to the Indian navy including submarine exercises in the Indian Ocean. Israel already has nearly $5 billion in trade with India (import and export) and it is time for Israel to start purchasing basic military supplies from India. India has five domestic manufacturers of the standard 155 mm artillery shells and it has large small arms industry – this should be an alternative to total dependence on the U.S for this standard equipment.

There is now a consensus in the country that Israel needs to broaden its military manufacturing and acquisition and the best way to do this would be to expand its relations with India. In order for this to make sense the time has come for Israel to say a very big “thank you very much” to the United States for the $3.9 billion in military aide it gets annually and instead purchase directly from the U.S and other sources.   India could also help in building factories in Israel – which could even be operated by Indian nationals through Israel’s guest worker program.

The military cooperation should be expanded to the air-force as well as ground forces.  There ought to be joint officer training, just as there is now with the U.S and some European countries. There should be a process in place that will eventually lead to a freedom of the seas treaty in the waters between India and Israel’s Gulf of Eilat. This should include cooperation between naval, air and anti-missile forces. 

The foreign worker program should also be expanded. Israel is trying to free itself from dependence upon Palestinian labor – from both Gaza and the West Bank – and India and Israel have been talking about an expanded guest worker program. Currently there are Indian citizens working as aides to the elderly and disabled and that needs to be expanded to construction and agriculture. 

Israel is a small country with around 10 million people and due to its large birthrate and legal immigration there is a lack of new housing construction in the country. The guest worker program in place with countries like Philippines, Thailand, Sri Lanka and others allows workers to work for up to five years and earn much more than they can earn in their home countries. They are provided with the same health care as Israeli citizens (paid for by their employers) and are even given pension benefits which they take with them when they return to their home countries. Israel could probably host up to 100,000 Indian workers a year.  

Scientific and student cooperation should be increased. This will not only help both countries develop important technology in areas such as healthcare and biotech, but will help India and Israel retain some of the scientists that would otherwise emigrate to the U.S and U.K. The exchange programs at university science and technology departments could lead to the creation of world class companies in the respective fields. 

Finally, cooperation regarding the capital markets could help both countries develop world class markets. India has the potential to be a global financial center in the coming decades and Israel, while far from being a financial powerhouse could be a link to European markets and investors with the time zone 1-2 hours ahead and close connections with those markets. 

The United States will be Israel’s main ally for the next few decades but it will be healthy for both countries if Israel was able to share interests – political, diplomatic, cultural and military with another major country. While France was that country until 1967 no European power has the position or the disposition to ally with Israel. India is democratic and attained its independence at the same period Israel did and from the same (then) major colonial power.  Also, both countries have overcome their socialist beginnings to thrive on the global economic stage. 

Now is the time for Israel and India to take the next step on the road to a true alliance. If we have truly reached the end of the Pax Americana, then this can be an example to the rest of the free-Status-quo world on how to manage without the vast power that is the United States. If somehow America shows the will to continue to lead the free world an Israel-India alliance will only contribute to the freedom that a continued Pax Americana protects. It would be helpful in any future conflict in the Pacific and the alliance could expand to the Gulf countries, East Africa and maybe even Egypt. 

Economically and technologically the obvious expansion would be towards South Korea and Japan. Militarily, it could aide and potentially replace the U.S naval presence in the Persian Gulf and allow it to concentrate its forces more in the Pacific. We are not talking here of a relationship that will replace the U.S military tomorrow or even next year. 

This is a long term process and requires the governments, corporations and individuals in both countries to be aggressive in turning a relationship into an alliance.  And it will require the cooperation and encouragement of the United States which will have to agree to support this and similar alliances even if it does not agree with all the tactics used in a moment of crisis.     

It is time to start looking forward and to stop depending on the goodwill of the American people as America, too faces major fiscal, strategic and military challenges of its own. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

postN19

Broader Alliances: Sustaining Economic and Political Power

by with No Comment Featured HighlightsRisk AnalysisRisk Management

Broader Alliances: Sustaining Economic and Political Power

The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

If the United States decides to abandon its role as the premier global superpower and shall only be a Pacific and Atlantic power, withdrawing as defender of free seas, free trade and freedom in general, its democratic allies will have to start looking elsewhere for broader military alliances. This large group of nations would have to defend their interests against a revanchist China tied to Iran, Russia, North Korea and many of the Latin American countries – possibly including Brazil, and South Africa who have questionable politics and outlooks.

Eastern Mediterranean Alliance: A Strong Sea Power

Here is a speculative, yet reasonable look at the future of the free world. Let’s start with the Eastern Mediterranean where the two major powers are Israel and Turkey. One cannot deny that both these countries outclass all others regarding military might in the region. Israel’s air force is second to none and its navy is becoming a strategic necessity as it needs to defend its natural gas fields miles offshore. It now has six submarines that are capable of projecting power anywhere in the Mediterranean and even into the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. Turkey is currently a NATO member, but it is not clear that this will outlast the first half of the 21st century.

There is currently an informal alliance among Israel, Greece and Cyprus (both NATO countries) via joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. The Israeli navy and air force train regularly with Greece and its special forces train in the Cyprian mountains with its army. It would be in all three countries interests to formalize a treaty – if not of mutual defense, at least of mutual aid during times of war. All three of these countries are democracies and all three have mutual economic interests.

postN19

A formalization of this alliance makes sense now and if there is a NATO collapse it turns into a necessity for Greece and Cyprus. Adding Egypt (although it would be the only non-democracy) to this group would only strengthen the alliance and keep Turkey at bay. A post-Erdogan Turkey that is comfortable with its Islamic character and its modern society could even join this grouping with Israel as a potential peacemaker between the historic Greek-Turkish rivalry.

This alliance without Turkey is a powerful force in the eastern Mediterranean, and this alliance with Turkey could neutralize a nuclear Iran. A Post-Hezbollah Lebanon which is in the interests of all of these alliance members (including Turkey and Egypt), could become a reality and another member.

A New Alignment: The United Border Nations

What about Eastern and Central Europe? Poland is rapidly becoming the major non-nuclear European military power. Within the next few years it will outshine Germany and the U.K and rival France. It is quite clear, nuclear weapons aside, Poland would probably defeat Russia in a number of weeks, if not days if a conflict were to ignite.

Whether the Russian-Ukrainian war ends in a Russian defeat or in some sort of face saving armistice, Russia will not lose its aggressive nature or nuclear capabilities and it will inevitably become aligned more closely with China and Iran because of its current political nature.

The important new alignment will be categorization of ‘countries bordering Russia’. A new alliance of Poland, Finland, Sweden, Norway and the Baltic states – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia together would have the land, sea and air power necessary to deter and defeat, if necessary, any Russian imperialist expansion. Even with closer ties to China it would be difficult to imagine that, over the next 50 years, Russia would be a threat to this alliance. Adding Ukraine to this grouping would make a powerful force. Its joint population of over 100 million people, while not quite Russia’s 150 million – would be a formidable adversary, especially as the technological skills of these countries is first world and continuing to improve. Adding the other former Warsaw Pact countries like Czech, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria can only increase its potency.

Unlike the Eastern Mediterranean alliance mentioned above, this would have to be based on a mutual defense treaty in order to properly deter any Russian-Chinese-Iranian attack. Linking up, informally with the ‘new’ Eastern Mediterranean Alliance would create a powerful grouping of free countries against any attempt by authoritarian adversaries. Adding an economic aspect to these border nations and an alliance with the Eastern Med group with free trade zones would create a strong challenge to any attempted Chinese hegemony.

Asian Border Nations Group: Potential Look Ahead at Potential

If we were to unite the Eastern Mediterranean and Border Alliances to an admittedly non-democratic Asian ‘stans nations, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan with a joint population of around 80 million, we are beginning to see the creation of a multi-cultural alliance that extends from the Arctic Ocean through Central Europe, Northern Africa and into Asia.

The Crucial Partner in Order to Balance Power: India

Which leads us to the Indian Ocean; a dominant India can help control the sea lanes from the Persian Gulf to the Bay of Bengal and down to Australia. An Indian-Australian alliance, along with Israel would create a democratic economic and military force that would keep China and Iran from dominating the region. This would require an Indian navy that is not only large, but effective also because it would hold a main responsibility for patrolling the seas from the Persian Gulf up to Australia strongholds.

As India also reaches its potential as a global manufacturing giant, it will be a force to be reckoned with. Including into this potent mix of nations, is the possibility of adding authoritarian countries like Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states; along with Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia who have strong ‘western’ economic interests and would create a formidable bulwark against China’s imperialist Belt and Road project.

Without the need to project naval power worldwide the Unites States could use it massive naval, air and ground forces to take better control of the Pacific Ocean along with Japan, South Korea and Australia.

If we add countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, then China would be deterred from further aggression. The only other region that would fall under American responsibility would be the Atlantic Ocean – the shipping lanes to Europe, West Africa and the Mediterranean. Along with the UK and France there would be no challenger to the control of the Atlantic. This could also lead to a revival of the old Monroe Doctrine and maybe free South America from the destructive influences of Iran, China and Russia.

The Global Economy and Free Trade Zones with a Stable USD as Reserve Currency

What does all this mean for the global economy? The free world along with its less than free allies who fear China, Russia and Iran could still maintain a U.S dollar based world. Free trade zones amongst and between the various alliances along with a revival of manufacturing led by a technology revolution using AI, quantum computing, renewable energy and space exploration could lead to a global resurgence of free countries that could stop the authoritarian appetites of Russia, China and Iran in its tracks. This can only happen with a stable reserve currency the ‘West’ can rely upon which is the USD.

Potentially a U.S freed from being the sole defender of freedom in the world, would help get America’s fiscal house in order and allow it to focus on being a dominant economic power. Is there a future for the ‘free world’ without a United States that projects power globally? Currently, a U.S withdrawal from global military assertion would certainly cause the end of freedom (economic and political) in the world for many nations. However, with the new alliances described above and a fiscally responsible United States, freedom could yet make a comeback.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.