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Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 4th of July with an addendum on the 5th via The Angry Demagogue.

Blinken Gets Pushed to the Back of the Line

While the Biden-Blinken Administration is obsessing on “non-escalation” and telling allies they are on their own if they attack an Axis member that attacks the ally,  or that they will help the ally “defend itself” but not take the offensive (how you do that is a mystery) the Axis itself is establishing itself all over the Middle East.

Let’s start with a statement, quoted in Israel, by Alexander Dugin who is Putin’s ideological advisor advising the Russian leadership to arm Hezbollah and the Houthis in their fight against Israel. Earlier this week, Newsweek reported that Russia is considering arming the Houthis with cruise missiles. These could be used against Israel and against Saudi Arabia – or maybe U.S bases in the area. As Russia seeks to cement its ties with anti-Western countries and forces around the world, it seems to be partnering with Iran so as to increase the potency of Iran’s proxies and press their goal to rid the region of U.S forces. Toward this goal Iran and even Russia are manufacturing tanks together in Iran.

The Houthis themselves, under with the guidance of Iran, are attempting to expand their sea blockade from Bab al Mandab straits connecting the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea, to the east African coast by cooperating with the Sunni and al-Qaeda based Somali terrorist group al-Shabaab al-Mujahadin. Reports in Israel quoting U.S intelligence sources claim that the two groups are cooperating and that the Houthis will supply weapons to al-Shabaab in order to interdict global shipping off the Somali coast and in order to harass U.S forces stationed in the area.

The anti-U.S alliance seem to be able to cross religious and ideological boundaries in ways that western intelligence thought impossible. That is because western (and Israeli) intelligence mis-categorize all of these groups and countries. The issue is not who is Sunni and who is Shiite, who is Russian Orthodox and who is Communist, but rather, who is for keeping the international status-quo and who’s for, to use a phrase meant for different times – a “new global order”.  

The Houthis, feeling confident in having defeated the U.S Navy in the Red Sea are now threatening Saudi Arabia for saying no to a Russian negotiated deal (under the auspices of the U.N and opposed by the U.S) which would bring an end to the embargo against the Houthis including their export of oil as well as Saudi financing of the Houthi civil government in the part of Yemen they occupy (they learned from Hamas and Qatar/PA/Israel that you really can have your enemies pay your salaries) amongst other goodies. They blame Saudi Arabia for allowing U.S jets to bomb Houthi sites from airbases inside Saudi Arabia – with no U.S carriers in the Red Sea that certainly could be true. In their threat they included videos of their bombing of Saudi oil fields in 2019 just in case the Saudis forgot. 

The Houthis, with their experience stopping shipping, have, according to a JCPA report been the point men for Iran’s plan to extend the sea embargo against Israel to the Mediterranean. This would not only hurt Israeli shipping but also the ability of its Air Force to operate properly. We wrote recently about Iran’s possible plans for Cyprus, including Hezbollah’s open threat to them, and this fits nicely with their plan to ring Israel with fire on all sides. We already know that Russian intelligence vessels are in the Mediterranean tracking Israeli submarines and that the Russian naval base in Syria is a safe haven for Iranian shipping. 

Just this week an Iranian vessel filled with arms for Hezbollah anchored in the Syrian port of Latakia (why did Israel not sink this??!!) which is 100kms (60 miles) north of the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria – was it escorted in by the Russian Navy? Is that why?  

The U.S now has three main allies in the Middle East – Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE, and with the exception that the UAE administration has a habit of criticizing and threatening these allies. 

It boggles the mind that Blinken does not see what the entire world sees – a so far successful effort rid the Middle East of the U.S and its allies. For Israel that means annihilation and for Saudi Arabia it means probably surrender to the Iranians while its royal family is allowed to enjoy their money (best case scenario). For the UAE it means it will be used even more than it currently is as an Axis financial center. For the U.S it means a withdrawal, not to the Western Hemisphere – but to the northern half of it. 

The Middle East is slowly becoming the playground of the Axis and it is just a matter of time before the West won’t be able to get a turn on the swings.

Addendum: A short follow regarding the Houthi ultimatum to Saudi Arabia

The Houthi’s gave the Saudis 72 hours to respond and respond they did. The Saudis have agreed to all the demands of the Houthis as they realized that the United States will not defend them from attack and are unwilling or unable to deter, let alone to destroy the Houthis offensive capabilities.

Amongst the Houthi demands that the Saudis agreed to are:

1. The re-opening of the airport in Sana’a, Yemen.  They will allow direct flights to bring pilgrims to Mecca, flights to Jordan and soon flights to everywhere. This will allow the Houthis to be re-armed by the Iranians via air transport.

2. Payment, by Saudi Arabia of Houthi government employees.

3. Allowing the Houthis to sell oil – ending the embargo.

This is a plan, as stated, sponsored by Russia and not opposed by the United States. It is a further move by the Axis into pushing the U.S out of the region. It is not clear if part of this agreement is for the Saudis to disallow U.S use of the Prince Sultan Ari Base for attacks on the Houthis.  

As an aside, the UAE has suggested that the U.S setup a base in Somaliland – a breakaway country in the horn of Africa on the coast of the Gulf of Aden and bordered by Djibouti and Ethiopia (and of course Somalia). This seems to be an attempt to rid the Gulf States of the responsibility to host U.S forces that attack Iranian proxies.  Could Biden’s “you are on your own if you attack Iran” (back in April after the 300 projectile attack on Israel) have influenced their decision?

Russia and Iran are on the rise in the region as the U.S administration preaches de-escalation and appeasement. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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Regional War Spreads: Will Blinken Wake Up to the Reality?

Regional War Spreads: Will Blinken Wake Up to the Reality?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

Despite the denial of reality by the Blinken State Department the Middle East war gets hotter and spreads eastward (even without) Israel’s intervention. After spending years appeasing the Iranians the world is now faced with the results of that policy. 

Iran has trained and funded terrorists in Gaza and the West Bank where the high intensity battles continue. In Lebanon-Israel there are close to 100,000 Israelis displaced, and it seems more Lebanese have left the area south of the Litani as heavy rocket, tank, artillery and air attacks continue from both sides of the border. Attacks have intensified against Israel from Syria and Yemen, and Iranians and their militias are attacking U.S forces in Iraq and Syria. Turkey, Russia and Syrian forces continue bombing areas of northern Syria and now both Iran and Turkey are bombing Kurdish lands.  

We know what is going on in Yemen and the surrounding seas with global shipping coming to a standstill there, and diminishing Suez Canal traffic is slowly crippling an already disastrous Egyptian economy. The U.S and the U.K have been forced to bomb Houthi areas, but this of course is after the total failure of the Blinken foreign policy of ‘ending’ the war in Yemen by cutting arms sales to the side that was pro-West while encouraging Iran to continue funding, arming and training of their Houthi allies.

A new front has now opened between Pakistan and Iran. We spoke earlier of the Sunni-Shiite war heating up, but it has spread faster and more violently than we expected. 

Over the last few days fighting on the Iran-Pakistan border has heated up. It started with heavy fire between the Pakistani group Jaish ul-Adl and Iranian border guards in the Sistan-Baluchestan border area, and included the assassination of Iranian Hussain Gwadanfur on the Khash-Saravan road.

In other clashes between Iranian and Pakistani forces at least two Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) soldiers were killed, and the IRG has shot rockets into Pakistan hitting Turbat and surrounding areas near the coast.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement claiming that they “undertook a series of highly coordinated …. precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts in Siestan-o-Baluchistan province of Iran”. At the end of the press release they speak of Iran being a “brotherly country” with “great respect and admiration for the Iranian people”. It seems that Pakistan does not want to publicly admit that official Iranian forces were involved in the attacks.

What is incredible about Iran is that they have now attacked three nuclear armed states – the U.S, Pakistan and Israel – without fear of retaliation. We can only imagine what the Revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran will do once they too have a nuclear weapon.

We are in a regional war with fighting going on daily from Pakistan to Libya. Iran, not Israel, is at the center and is the cause of nearly all the fighting and tough statements and tough actions need to be taken against Iran – not Israel. Senate majority leader Schumer has been quoted as saying that he wants to put extra conditions upon the sale of arms to Israel, but where was he when Obama sent planeloads of cash to Iran and Biden-Blinken released further billions in November of 2023? Where are the conditions placed on a terrorist state?  

The Biden-Blinken foreign policy of appeasing enemies and threatening allies that is at the core of its operation continues apace. First with the cutoff of arms to Saudi Arabia and their Yemeni allies in order to “end the war” and then to “advice” the Ukrainians not to provoke the Russians, and next heavy pressure on Israel to ‘surrender’ to Hamas by leaving them in power.  

One can make deals with countries that are interested in their people. One cannot make deals with terrorist groups or revolutionary states that are looking to upend the global order. That is Iran in a nutshell. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Flakes for 19th of January 2024

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Flakes for 19th of January 2024

10. Music: Come On, Come Over performed by Jaco Pastorius. The bass playing on this song is magnificent.

9. Cybersecurity: Prospect of quantum computing is making Central Banks nervous, quantum development will impact blockchain and make current payment systems vulnerable and perhaps obsolete. Post-quantum cryptography development is vital.

8. Frigid Weather: Tesla owners have dealt with battery power failures as winter temperatures have plummeted in Chicagoland and elsewhere. EV energy solutions need to improve.

7. China: Over the past 11 months FDI (foreign direct investment) has dropped more than 10% in the nation, an estimated short fall of 145.51 billion USD. China’s Foreign Direct Investment release has seemingly been pushed off to next week. Shanghai Composite (SSE) near 2832.28.

6. Energy Sector: WTI Crude Oil still priced politely as ‘interactions’ with Houthis flare. Natural Gas values remain near lows while North America suffers from a deep freeze.

5. Risk Assessment: Iran and Pakistan, although expressing ‘brotherly love’ for each other, have exchanged missiles across their respective border aimed at extremists.

4. U.S Treasuries: Inversion has almost ended completely, 5-Year Notes up to 30-Year Bonds yields have returned to ‘norms’.

3. Gold: Price of the precious metal near 2027.00 USD having bounced higher after challenging the 2000.00 vicinity on Wednesday.

2. Data: Consumer Sentiment reading via University of Michigan on the schedule today, this could provide impetus to markets that appear to be waiting for the next big push.

1. FX Volatility: USD strength has pushed the greenback towards important mid-term resistance in Forex as many day traders are likely still fighting the trend.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for 12th of January 2024

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for 12th of January 2024

10. Music: School Days by Stanley Clarke. Recorded in 1976, the ‘song’ is one of the best jazz fusion pieces ever played.

9. Coaches: Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll have been ‘politely’ fired, Nick Saban has retired. NFL and college football remain the ‘Kings of Sport’ in the United States.

8: Taiwan: Presidential election will be held tomorrow. Expect noise from China this weekend regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty.

7. Forex: Volatility struck yesterday in USD based currency pairs, whipsawing as financial institutions reacted to the Consumer Price Index reports. More inflation data will come from the U.S today.

6. Gold and Crude Oil: Precious metal value has been ‘almost’ steady, and WTI Crude Oil price remains rather calm.

5. China Deflation: CPI and PPI numbers were lackluster this morning. Export numbers from the nation have also delivered troubling declines.

4. Houthis: U.S and U.K missile strikes in Yemen have been conducted, diatribes from the extremists have been sounded, and may cause some investors concerns and potential risk adverse trading considerations going into weekend.

3. Bitcoin: SEC ETF funds approval has been completed, and launch is set to allow retail traders and ‘investors’ to purchase the digital asset. BTC/USD is near 45,960.00 currently. CFD products from brokers will likely be introduced and flourish soon, which will be based on the ETF notional values and allow day traders to wager on upside and downward momentum.

2. PPI Data: U.S Producer Price Index inflation results today could rattle the broad markets. No changes are forecasted. A surprise increase would worry those betting against the USD. Traders should also keep their eyes open for potential revisions to previous months.

1. Risk Appetite: Dow Jones 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to flirt with apex values. The Nikkei 225, from Japan, is challenging highs not seen since 1990 as it trades above 35,575.00 for the moment. Equity indices remain optimistic.

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Thin Holiday Markets Await FX Speculators

Thin Holiday Markets Await FX Speculators

Traders who want to pursue speculative positions this week need to understand that market conditions will be extremely thin. While the USD has certainly taken on a ‘softer’ dimension and financial institutions are demonstrating solid risk appetite, this week’s trading could produce lackluster choppy conditions.

Economic data will be light this week due to the ongoing Christmas celebrations, and the New Year’s holiday which will come next Monday. Forex markets can produce trading opportunities in the near-term for folks who want to wager on changes of direction, but some of the trajectories may be dubious and reversals could loom. Entry orders are urged for participants because spreads between bids and asks will likely be wide.

Gold Three Month Chart as of 26th December 2023

Gold remains within its higher price boundaries as the USD produces weakness, but betting on the precious metal this week could also be dangerous. Gold has certainly been trending upwards, but short-term speculative positions by large players could make the commodity agitated the next handful of days if they try to take advantage of light volumes. Day traders without significant bankrolls should be careful.

While economic data will be released, it is doubtful how much impact the reports will have on the broad markets. Active traders should monitor the coming statistics, but they should stay ‘more’ alert for possible outside influences which could shake confidence and shadow the rather optimistic behavioral sentiment which is currently being demonstrated.

News via international shipping should be given attention as the Houthis and Iran rattle their swords. While experienced traders will not be flustered by noise, the potential for escalating violence should be given attention.

USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 26th December 2023

Tuesday, 26th of December, Japan Core CPI via the BoJ – inflation data from Japan has been published today and the Consumer Price Index came in below expectations. The USD/JPY remains on a downwards trajectory and should be given consideration.

Wednesday, 27th of December, U.S Richmond Manufacturing Index – this report being ‘highlighted’ shows the minimal amount of data being published this week. A decline versus the previous month’s negative outcome is expected. The likelihood that significant trading will be ignited via the results of this publication is almost nil.

Thursday, 28th of December, U.S Pending Home Sales – the data is expected to show a gain of 1.1%. However, it is next month’s report which will get more attention, this as investors look to see if the Fed’s soft monetary policy stance which was heard in mid-December, helps boost the housing market in the coming weeks. This immediate report however is likely to be met with a rather quiet reaction.

Friday, 29th of December, U.K Nationwide Home Price Index – this economic report like yesterday’s U.S housing numbers is destined to have little influence on short-term trading results. The GBP/USD will not be affected by this report in any great manner.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Pre-Xmas Thoughts for 22nd of Dec.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Pre-Xmas Thoughts for 22nd of Dec.

10. Music: The Nutcracker by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky via Simon Rattle and the Berliner Philharmoniker.

9. Book: Zhou Enlai: The Last Perfect Revolutionary by Gao Wenqian.

8. Mobile Gaming: Revenues from ‘gaming on the go’ in 2023, via an Electronics Weekly article, is estimated to be 92.6 billion USD worldwide. Honor of Kings via Tencent leads the pack.

7. Data: U.S Final GDP quarterly numbers came in at 4.9%, missing its estimate of 5.2%. Final GDP Price Index quarterly results were 3.3%, below the anticipated mark of 3.6%. Canada will release its GDP numbers today for those paying attention.

6. USD: The greenback continues to produce incremental declines. Yesterday’s ‘weaker’ U.S GDP numbers helped solidify a bearish USD outlook mid-term.

5. Trading Volumes: Speculators who insist on wagering today need to understand many financial institutions are closing early. ‘Thin’ holiday markets can be extremely quiet and then become volatile without warning.

4. Global Risk: As traders relax during their holiday break, they should monitor news about the Red Sea for potential problems caused by the Houthis rebels from Yemen.

3. China: Economic concerns are mounting for the nation. The Shanghai Composite is approaching lows last seen in October of 2022.

2. Holiday Markets: U.S equity indices continue to show solid risk appetite. S&P 500 is now approaching all-time highs seen in 2022. Dow Jones 30 is at a record level. Nasdaq Composite trend still bullish.

1. Thank you: We wish all readers who are celebrating Christmas a fantastic holiday.

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Preventing WWIII: This is a 1936 Moment for the Middle East

Preventing WWIII: This is a 1936 Moment for the Middle East

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

The wonderful historian and public intellectual Niall Ferguson has aptly called the current US-China relationship a “Cold War II” and the current debate in the punditry is if the Israel-Hamas war lead to a WWIII. But what if we are already in WWIII? While Russia and the rest of the world did not expect the war in Ukraine to still be fought nearly three years later, the Russia-Ukraine war is now clearly a part of the fight of the West vs the new Axis – Russia/Iran/China/North Korea. But it was the Hamas attack of Israel on October 7 and the response of the Axis and its allies that have more clearly established the battle lines.

We have Russian and Iranian weaponry vs. American and Israeli weaponry. The Russians and the Iranians are using what we so quaintly call “proxies” for a plausible (un)deniability, sheltering them from retaliation. Iran has its various Shiite militias, with Hezbollah being the strongest and most lethal. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIF) are the Sunni useful idiots helping the Shiite empire to destroy their Sunni cousins by dying for the cause. The Shiite militias formed and fighting in Iraq and Syria along with the Houthis in Yemen round out Iran’s ability to pretend it is not fighting while creating a genocide of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq and Jews in Israel. On the Russian side we have of course the infamous Wagner Group which in its racist undertaking is taking over and subjugating sub-Saharan Africa in its run to control minerals, gold and diamonds. They are now helping Hezbollah with weaponry and training by providing anti-aircraft weapons. The two groups fought hand in hand saving Bashir Assad, the leader and butcher of Syria, to stay in power so they already have close ties. Wagner is Russia and Russia is Wagner. Hezbollah is Iran and Iran is Hezbollah. The quicker we understand this the better off we will be.

We don’t have any details on Chinese or North Korean weaponry being used by Hamas or Hezbollah, but that might just be a timing issue. China has already decided not to report Hamas atrocities to its people in its official Chinese language news service and are eliminating Israel from its maps. It only reports Israeli’s response and has taken a clear stance supporting its ally, Iran. Will they learn from their Axis allies and also form proxies in Asia to destabilize countries like the Philippines or Vietnam while being immune to retaliation? They don’t need to conquer or even blockade Taiwan if they can destabilize their neighbors while still selling the West all that it wants to buy and inundate our youth via Tik-Tok propaganda.

Japan has realized what this war is about, and is supporting Israel like it never has. Being totally dependent upon the Mideast for its oil, Japan has never been a close friend of Israel. But they have now condemned the Hamas attack while refusing the criticize Israel’s massive response. The Japanese understand well that an Israeli defeat can lead to Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Back to the Mideast – it seems we always go back to the Mideast.

Iranian backed Hamas and PIJ launched a brutal attack on Israel.

The Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen declared war on Israel and launched cruise missiles and drones in their opening attack.

Iranian backed and financed Shiite militias are moving to Syria and Lebanon hoping to open two new fronts against Israel.

Iranian backed and financed Hezbollah is attacking from the north in what, for some reason, we are not yet considering a war.

And Iran itself is feeling safe from attack from Israel or the US/West since “only” its proxies are fighting.

This is the remilitarization of the Rhineland of 1936 and a Western betrayal of Israel by hamstringing the IDF by allowing gasoline into Gaza or by a forced cease fire, will be the Munich, 1938.

Are we in WWIII yet? Not being an expert, I don’t know. But the main link tying the Axis together is Iran. They are the most experienced in exporting terror and supporting anti-Western regimes from the Mideast to Africa to America’s doorstep – Latin America. They support and are supported by the Castroite regimes in Cuba and Venezuela and have made deep inroads in Argentina, Brazil and now even Mexico. They are currently nearly as great a threat to the west as is China and probably a greater threat than Russia. A nuclear Iran would create three nuclear powers that could threaten the West as an Axis or independently. The Obama-Biden Iranian policy has been proven a total disaster and its seems that the Biden team is finally understanding this. But they can, in Margaret Thatcher’s famous warning to the first President Bush, “go wobbly” at any moment.

The only way to prevent a full fledged WWIII is Iranian regime change. This would bring the entire Persian Gulf (and its oil) into the Western sphere of influence as China does not yet have the naval power to challenge the US. Hezbollah would be instantly neutralized reducing the threat of war and denying the anti-Western powers another presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Although the Syrian butcher, Bashir Assad would still have Russia to back him, it is not clear that Russian power alone could keep him in power. In Latin America, Iranian export of terror would stop instantly.

This does not mean that the US needs to invade Iran in order to defeat it. A majority of the Iranian people are sick of the Islamist regime and sick of paying the price for their being ruled by terrorists. The destruction of Iranian nuclear and missile facilities along with the destruction, by air and cruise missiles, of the main Revolutionary Guard bases will be enough. It is not an easy task -but one within the capabilities of the US Navy and Air Force. It is only the Revolutionary Guards that keep the terrorists in power in Iran – the regular Iranian armed forces can be left alone to decide if they want to help overthrow the regime or stay in their barracks. Once they see that the Guards are weakened it is a good bet they will take the side of the Iranian people and help topple the Islamist-terrorist regime.

Regime change in Iran in 2023 will change the global dynamic just as regime change in Nazi Germany in 1936 would have saved 70 million lives in WWII. A failure to act against the source of evil and to cut off the main link in the current Axis will just kick the can down the road – once again. We have appeased Iran enough and if the West and the US don’t act quickly it will have to act while simultaneously fighting off a Chinese attack in the Indo-Pacific – on its own or with its very own proxies – as well as terrorist attempts coming from Latin America and Russian nuclear blackmail in Europe.

And we haven’t even spoken of the West’s moral obligation to prevent a second holocaust, which will be the very first task of a nuclear Iranian regime.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/