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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Items on the 21st September 2024

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Items on the 21st September 2024

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10. Shohei Ohtani: The slugger hit another home run last night bringing his total to 52 for the season. There is more than a week of regular season action remaining. Incredibly, if Ohtani pitches next season while also hitting, his current statistics could be outshined. The Dodgers pitching staff is in tatters as the MLB playoffs approach, and it has been opined that Ohtani could pitch in the postseason. However, this option is highly unlikely. Ohtani is an outstanding athlete and has surpassed many expectations.

9. Beep, Beep: The purchasing of technology, including their production and logistics sources are likely coming into question in many diverse places around the globe. The detonation of pagers and walkie talkies used by the terrorist group Hezbollah which is largely based in Lebanon has certainly created panic about vulnerabilities. Contemplation in many nations regarding the buying of equipment that could be prone to spyware and other harmful acts is a reality.

8. Michael J. Saylor: MicroStrategy led by its Executive Chairman has added to their Bitcoin holdings. MicroStrategy is reported to have around 252,220 Bitcoins. The current value of BTC/USD is around 63,000 as of this writing. Part of Saylor’s love for Bitcoin rests in his belief that value is due to scarcity, and secure durability as a store of value technologically. However, each Bitcoin holds 100 million Satoshis, the units each Bitcoin is divided by digitally as source code. Even if conservatively there are only 15 million Bitcoin in circulation in ten years time, 15 million times 100 million is 1.5e + 15, meaning more than a quadrillion Satoshis in circulation. That is not scarcity, particularly when quantum computers could create lightning quick digital trading via coding sources. The premise and concern for a major devaluation in Bitcoin is legitimate. Do you disagree?

7: Equity: Intel has apparently been made a sales offer by Qualcomm. Intel’s market cap is 93.19 billion USD, and Qualcomm’s is 188.18 billion USD. The biggest shareholders of Intel are Vanguard, Blackrock and State Street, interestingly enough Qualcomm’s three biggest shareholders are identical. So if the largest shareholders are practically alike, it comes down to a management question, can Qualcomm run Intel better?

6. Closer: The U.S election will be in a little over six weeks times. The race for the White House according to many polls is very close and the outcome will depend on important swing States. There is still enough time for Harris and Trump to pick up votes, but also enough time for each to unwittingly make an error which can cost votes. Not only is the White House up for grabs, but the House and Senate are at stake too for the Democrats and Republicans.

5. Europe’s ability to put on blinders as the Ukraine and Russia battle in a not so distant land, and bickering between E.U nations while finding no solutions for the conflict have many historical comparisons within the continent. The ability to look the other way as chaos grows and inflicts harm on neighbors has a long tradition in Europe. Since the Middle Ages into the present Europe has a significant track record of negotiating harmony and procuring tenuous treaties, which eventually lead to additional discord.

4. USD/JPY: The currency pair closed at nearly 143.850 yesterday. Analysts are trying to create narratives regarding the climb higher the past handful of days, this after the USD/JPY touched the 139.600 level approximately last Monday. Here’s the thing: financial institutions that trade the Japanese Yen had positioned for a more dovish Federal Reserve and more hawkish BoJ. The Fed delivered their end of the bargain on Wednesday, confirming actions which had already been factored into the currency pair. The USD/JPY ‘correction’ higher is within equilibrium that financial institutions have to recalibrate as they make their new mid-term outlooks and decide how to shift their cash forward positions incrementally. The move higher has not been massive and is a natural reaction as large players rearrange their commercial paper. Incremental is the key word.

3. Energy Calm: WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil continue to trade slightly above their lower price realms, which saw long-term values in the second week of September tested. Current ratios are still flirting with technical considerations seen in the late spring of 2023. While hyperbole is communicated far and wide regarding potential Black Swan events in the Middle East which could cause Crude Oil to increase rapidly, the energy resources remain rather tranquil and seemingly transfixed on concerns about mid-term demand globally due to recessionary pressures.

2. All-Time Highs: Gold created new record values going into this weekend near 2,622.00. In September of 2022, gold was trading near 1,600.00 USD per ounce. The move higher in the precious metal has come on the heels of global inflation. Some also correctly point to a distrust of global central banks and fiscal concerns regarding the world’s largest economies. The bullish run upwards in gold has been significant and the commodity will remain an important store of value for investors. Speculatively, some short and mid-term traders are wondering about gold’s ability to maintain a trajectory skywards and if sideways price action and possible downturns will ensue for a while. Long-term investors remain serene.

1. Applause: The Federal Reserve issued an aggressive interest rate cut of 0.50%. The Fed seemingly is acting as if they are trying to please financial institutions because of past incompetence. The U.S central bank now needs economic data to behave according to their prescribed outlooks. What could go wrong? Another Federal Funds Rate cut is likely in November, after that a lot will depend on behavioral sentiment and data which may be affected by as of yet unknown leadership from the White House starting in early 2025. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounded almost too optimistic about the U.S economy during his Press Conference this past Wednesday. The U.S Final GDP numbers coming this Thursday will prove interesting, the growth numbers carry an expected gain of 2.9%.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

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10. Ellis Park, Johannesburg: The Springboks will face the All Blacks on Saturday in round three of the Rugby Championship. One of the greatest rivalries in sports will match South Africa who is looking to cement their current team’s legacy as one of the best rugby squads ever, versus New Zealand who is looking for revenge having lost to the Springboks in the World Cup Final in October 2023.

9. Labor Day: Short-term speculators should be mindful that today’s volumes may be thin due to U.S financial institutions allowing employees to leave early for a long weekend. While all the major U.S exchanges will be operating, transaction volumes will become lackluster as the day progresses with the last U.S summer holiday approaching.

8. Precious Future: Gold is traversing around 2,520.00 USD per ounce this morning, as Bitcoin is near 59,500 USD as of this writing. The precious metal was around 2,000.00 much of February, while Bitcoin began flirting with 59,000 and 60,000 in late February after starting that month near 43,000 USD. While influencers proclaim the future is digital with Bitcoin, Gold continues to shine and has a historical track record as a store of value.

7. Pavel Durov: The CEO of Telegram was released on Wednesday after posting 5 million EUR as bail, he must stay in France and faces a handful of charges. Russia, the UAE and high profile people, including Elon Musk, have publicly criticized France for Durov’s arrest last Saturday. Free speech advocates are largely against the arrest of Durov, while France contends Durov has not been forthcoming about data which has been shared on Telegram to conduct criminal enterprises. Julian Assange was arrested in 2019 in Britain and was only released in June of this year, promptly leaving for Australia.

6. Commodities: The price of WTI Crude Oil is near 76.00 USD and remains in a fairly stable range, Cocoa remains within sight of 9,000.00 as it trades around 8,950.00 this morning. And the prices for Coffee via Robusta and Arabica continue to flirt with apex highs. Day trading wagers on these commodities should be done carefully before the U.S holiday.

5. Art of Speaking: Kamala Harris is being criticized for her reliance on teleprompters as some pundits wonder loudly when she will sit for an unscripted interview. Donald Trump faces continued scrutiny for speaking extemporaneously, and everyone knows this characteristic is not going to change. The race for the White House appears tight. The televised debate between the candidates remains on the schedule for the 10th of September and its format may present the opportunity for verbal fireworks.

4. Eastern Europe: The Russian-Ukrainian war has been escalating the past few weeks as both sides appear to be working with the belief they need to create facts on the ground over the next few months. The potential of a victory by Donald Trump in the U.S may be pushing Russia and the Ukraine into a mode which hopes they can bolster their respective negotiating positions, this if the newly elected U.S President can get the warring sides to discuss an endgame.

3. China: The nation faces difficult economic circumstances and tries to maintain stability via Yuan and bonds interventions. Also, the foreign policy stance of China is growing tensions with the Philippines. The long standing disagreement about Taiwan’s sovereignty is well documented, but Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea is raising alarm bells among some political analysts. Manufacturing PMI results will be published by China early on Saturday. Economic data from the nation is being inspected by foreign investors carefully who are looking for long-term yields, but are troubled about transparency and the potential of sudden policy changes.

As an aside, APEC will conduct its annual meeting in November from the 10th until the 16th in Peru. Both Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will attend. Depending on Biden’s health and the outcome of the U.S Presidential Election on the 5th of November, this Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will prove important.

2. U.S Data: Jerome Powell’s capitulation last Friday via his public statement that the Fed needs to cut interest rates fueled a weaker USD. Forex has seemingly priced in a combined 0.50% basis cut via the Fed for September and November. Yesterday’s stronger than anticipated U.S GDP growth and inflation reports however created headwinds, which caused outlook jitters. Today’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index monthly gauge is expected to come in with a gain of 0.2%. If the inflation report can match the anticipated result this may calm Forex, equity indices, and Treasury yields before going into the long holiday weekend. Next Friday U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published. Today’s trading may be muted because of thin volumes, but day traders should expect volatility to increase starting next Tuesday.

1. Competition: Nvidia was valued around 47.50 USD per share this time last year, as of today the price is near 117.60. Intel’s value was approximately 34.50 USD this time last year, as of today the price is about 20.13 per share. Intel appears to be valued as a commodity supply company nowadays by some investors, while Nvidia’s outlook remains within the auspices of a highly anticipated technological future. Where will both companies values be this time next year?