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AMT Warning: Many Brokers Do Not Care if you Lose your Money

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsForex

AMT Warning: Many Brokers Do Not Care if you Lose your Money

Sounds like the title has been written wrong doesn’t it? Reads as if the editor clearly doesn’t understand the nature of the financial markets and how they work. Certainly anyone who offers their services to you would like to see you make money, or so you would like to think if you are an idealist who remains innocent and trusts all people.

Unfortunately, the title of this artcle which has lured you into reading this WARNING is not wrong. It has been written as cautionary advice for new and even experienced speculators. Many of the ‘financial’ websites and people you are considering to engage with via their day trading platforms and ‘expert’ systems are not worthy. Many do not care if you make money and some in fact are planning on ripping you off.

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Blackjack Betting and Sitting at the Table with Too Much Leverage

Volatility is in the eye of the beholder, brokers like when day traders without deep pockets use leverage, because they expect their ‘clients’ to get wiped out. Yes, brokers are not your friends in many cases, in fact they are rooting against you in the back rooms of their trading operations. Why? Because they are not actually putting your trade into the cash markets, they are allowing you to trade virtuallly. Think of it as entering a casino.

The casino wants you to bet outrageous sums of money, because they know statistically most gamblers will lose. Again, you have been warned. Your use of leverage is music to the ears of your broker, because they know the volatility of the market will knock you out of a trade if your margin trading is too high and the slightest of technical reversals will produce a losing position for you. Then they will ask you if you want to make another wager. You can continue to sit at the ‘blackjack’ table or walk away.

Learn To Trade Without Getting Ripped Off

The first thing you might want to ask and acknowledge when you begin to trade is how much money can be lost? The answer is all of your money. If the answer being given to you is that there is minimal risk and that you are guaranteed profits – immediately close the website you are looking at and find another. Guaranteed profits equates into assured losses for unsophisticated traders most of the time.

If you are speaking to someone on the phone and the person keeps asking you how much money you want to make, please hang up the phone and speak to someone else. Self proclaimed gurus should be shunned. As someone once said, people tend to use the word guru, because the word charlatan takes too long to spell.

Yes, even in the most reputable and best of companies who provide trading platforms, you are going to lose money sometimes. The art of speculating and successsful trading is a delicate balance between losing money and making money. It is probable if you are a new trader, that unfortunately you are going to lose money and you will become uncomfortable. Sure you could get lucky or be a prodigy who is supremely talented, but you should understand many folks lose money in the beginning. There is a learning curve for day traders and you need good teachers. You also need a calm emotional state of mind.

Finding a Pro to Trade for You

You might want to consider letting someone that you trust and who has a proven track record with verifiable clients you can authenticate to invest your money. However to have a pro trade for you, the amount of money as a minimum you will need for them to consider trading your cash is likely sizeable. It doesn’t seem like a fair question from a social perspective, but are you wealthy enough to allow someone to trade for you?

If you find a person that is reputable to trade for you, make sure they have explained their modus operandi and you agree with their outline. In other words have them discuss their plan of attack and how they perceive complexities within the markets. What sectors do they invest in, what is the break down via percentages regarding the amounts of money they put into various financial assets? Asking questions may seem a bit impolite, but reputable fund managers and family offices should not get flustered by your questions, and they should have answers that are easy to understand. Do not let them talk over your head with fancy words and equations. Clear and concise language is necessary.

You shoud ask how often they rebalance their portfolios and if they issue a quartertly report. Importantly, ask for an example of transparent accounting which shows transaction fees that will be charged in full, including services they are charged by other financial providers within your account. Commission and banking fees can add up quickly. And then ask the magic question regarding drawdowns, and what are the allowable losses in a trade and in an account that can happen before they have to stop trading. You should get clear explanations regarding all of your inquiries.

But You Likely Still Want to Trade for Yourself

If your emotions do not let you take into consideration that there are going to be negative days, perhaps declines for weeks and bad months – simply put, trading isn’t for you. Learning to handle your money and investing should not be a speculative adventure, this is not about having fun. Oh you will certainly experience thrills, but you should try your best to limit crises. Risk management is a way to curb the elements of gambling which every day trader is undertaking.

Will you become a professional investor? What is a professional investor? Nothing like semantics and flattery to get the juices of a prospective investor going. Do not be fooled by flattery. Do not be fooled by the fact that you have a degree. There are folks who do not have high school graduation certificates looking to take advantage of you, some of them are great traders and will eat you alive. Education at the best of colleges or universities is no guarantee you will become a good trader. There is a difference between paper trading and having skin in the game.

The marketplace is waiting for you to enter and anticipates taking your money. Brokers are trying to get you to come to their trading platforms because they want to make money from your transactions and wagers if they are not reputable. These brokers actually do not believe you will make money. Until you prove you know what you are doing you will be treated like a ‘mark’. When you do prove you know what you are doing you will be treated differently in more ways than one, and it might prove difficult to withdraw your winnings.

Trust is Important, but Facts and Regulations Help

You must deal with people and companies you trust. Make sure to do a deep examination of the folks you are about to forge a trading association. Trading virtually via digitalized CFD and Forex houses that are not regulated can lead to financial disaster. And ask where your broker is regulated, and then check on the mandates of the entity and government which has written the rules for brokers – are they legitimate supervisors and who do the regulations favor? There is a lot of work involved before you trade, you must practice due diligence.

AngryMetaTraders wants you to understand the game of trading. We talk about sports often because the world of trading can be closely compared. If you are good and lucky, perhaps the world of investing awaits your success. If you suffer a learning curve like many, you can compare yourself to an athlete that must train to beat the best. You will need patience and dedication. Surround yourself with reputable firms and people to asssociate your speculative endeavors with in order to get solid results long-term.

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Forex, Interest Rates, the Fed and Conspiracy Politics

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Forex, Interest Rates, the Fed and Conspiracy Politics

If you have been looking for road signs regarding what the U.S Federal Reserve is going to do next week and trying to get a feel for its rhetoric which will be delivered in the FOMC Statement on the 3rd of May, this week’s U.S data outcomes should be monitored. And as of now the data might be suggesting the Fed will remain aggressive in June.

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GBP/USD One Month Chart

A Fed Funds Rate hike is going to happen on the 3rd of May unless there is a financial catastrophe that suddenly emerges that is nearly cataclysmic. While First Republic Bank wobbling is certainly a problem (Mark Zuckerberg is supposedly a rather large client of the bank), if this entity fails completely it may not cause massive bedlam. The stock has dropped violently, so a collapse should not be a surprise. No, it will not be welcome, but it should not be an unexpected calamity.

The question is how much the U.S government will protect depositors? The large clients who are not insured above the standard 250k USD ratio will want the same benefits that clients of Silicon Valley Bank received in March. Should they be rewarded the same way? The American public may not like the idea of another bailout for the deep pocketed, but there may not be much they can do about it, except to vote the politicians out, but who do you exactly punish?

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First Republic Bank – One Month Chart as of 27th April 2023

What a collapse of First Republic Bank will do is hurt the corporate bond sector in banking again, because it is likely holders of these bonds will be put at the back of the line once again if the U.S government decides to protect big depositors of millions of dollars like Zuckerberg, before it protects bond holders.

U.S Data in Focus and the Allure of a Black Dress with Growth

But I digress, yesterday’s Core Durable Goods Orders statistics came in better than expected. Today Advance GDP will come from the U.S and if this number produces an increase instead of a downturn, the U.S Federal Reserve will have more ammunition to remain aggressive regarding interest rate hike rhetoric. An increase of 0.25% has been calculated into Forex for next week. The USD has done rather well recently, but what is of intrigue is the perception the USD is doing well after the financial markets have seemingly priced in a rate hike on the 3rd of May. Meaning, typically the USD would have started to ebb a bit lower after financial houses put their interest rate outlook into their Forex positions. Yesterday’s better than expected Core Durable Goods Orders leaves the door open for another hike on June the 14th to be precise.

While Core Durable Goods Orders isn’t a sexy statistic, GDP numbers frequently are, and if the growth numbers show up with a stunning black dress on with alluring ‘expansion’ it could send large speculators into a tizzy and make them believe the Fed could increase by another quarter of a point in June. The Fed during its FOMC Statement next week will certainly try to help financial institutions anticipate outlook. The Fed doesn’t need to hold the hand of investors, but it often treats them like children.

Financial houses had largely believed the Fed would hike in May and might raise in June. The notion that a June increase is certain would then put the focus back on the long-term again, and Forex could then break free of its rather consolidated incremental USD strength seen the past couple of weeks. Inflation remains a drum beat that is steady. And while today’s GDP numbers will be important. Tomorrow PCE inflation statistics will be the final nail in the coffin. If growth is stronger than expected today, and inflation numbers remain stubborn tomorrow, the Fed would certainly consider another June increase valid.

On the bright side for day traders is that the cautious choppy air which has circulated the past couple of weeks in Forex is almost done. While steady trends may not reappear for a while, at least near-term outlook will have more clarity by this time next week.

Big Institutions Have Long Term Outlooks and Treat Trading Conditions Differently

Long term outlook is another game as day traders should know and one they cannot easily participate. Long term investors have the money to specialize in assets which are not expecting profits today, but instead have a larger time frame for making money. Deep pockets, patience and the need for less leverage help financial institutions trade in a more stable manner, frequently putting the ‘odds’ in their favor.

The price of Crude Oil is actually behaving politely in recent trading, and its ability to find a mid 70.00’s USD price range is interesting and may help inflation move lower if it can be sustained. If supply of goods can adequately stabilize and global logistics costs come down, inflation could decrease. These factors are part of the long term perspective of financial institutions. Day traders may want to consider this because it could affect behavioral sentiment moving forward.

Higher interest rates from the Fed are causing other currencies to loss value and this has caused increased costs for international manufacturing companies located outside the U.S which frequently have to buy commodities in USD from their converted domestic currencies, this causes inflation. This is a factor not spoken about enough and traders need to consider this within their perspectives too.

The Fed and Perhaps a Conspiracy Theory

If the Fed actually starts to decrease its interest rates, it would help other currencies stabilize. And yes, if the Fed stops increasing interest rates it may actually help weaken global inflation. The Fed has caused import inflation to occur into the U.S. Are they aware of that? It is a good question. The likelihood is a yes, and it has been disregarded, but why? Perhaps there is another reason; does the U.S Fed and U.S government want to cause inflation globally to strike politically at some competitors? This is a different topic………kind of. Conspiracy theory.

While insight regarding the dialogues between the Federal Reserve and U.S government is certainly above my pay grade, one has to wonder about considerations regarding inflation and a stronger USD and its potential effect on China. The Fed increases may be a way of trying to inflict harm economically and in a subtle manner, but this cannot be proven. Perhaps the Fed is unaware of the global conflict being waged.

On another note, Gold remains near 2000.00 an ounce – almost steadily, displaying a certain amount of cautious behavior.

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Gold One Month Chart

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Words Matter in the Financial World and Noise is Dangerous

by with No Comment Federal Reserve, Interest Rates

Words Matter in the Financial World and Noise is Dangerous

As the financial markets trade in a nervous fashion the amount of ‘noise’ that traders must deal with has increased.

Markets Remain Jittery and Day Traders Pay the Price

The financial markets remain in a nervous state, and this is seen every day via the results from the major equity indices which continue to traverse within the framework of a threatening and potential bear market. Many new traders have not dealt with serious downturns in the financial markets before. Because human instinct is almost always positive, many speculators who participate in the markets tend to be buyers.

However in the past handful of months, many day traders who have been buyers have certainly found a difficult trading environment. Whether they are trying to pursue long positions in equity indices or cryptocurrencies, the speculative landscape has likely cost day traders money and produced trading accounts are negative, or worse simply have been closed.

U.S Federal Reserve Not Making Things Easy

The broad financial markets are likely to remain nervous in the coming months. The U.S Federal Reserve has a major interest rate announcement which will be delivered in the middle of June, and another rate hike of 0.50% is expected. What has the financial world nervous is not the anticipated interest rate hike which has already been digested into the marketplace, but what the Fed will say regarding their outlook regarding additional rate hikes in the summer. The reason why this is unclear is because the economic landscape remains cloudy and hotly debated.

The Federal Reserve has not helped investors because they have largely misread the economic landscape and caused problems because of past statements. Last year the Fed insisted inflation was transitory, meaning that it would soon diminish, this obviously did not happen. Now the best the Fed can do is to hope that inflation becomes less strong and that disinflation occurs. Meaning the U.S central bank is simply hoping it can decrease the rate of inflation.

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Words matter in this trading landscape for investors because the Federal Reserve’s policy has not exactly been met with popular fanfare. Many market participants feel that the Fed has pursued bad economic policy and that they have reacted slowly to data which was abundantly clear regarding supply problems, and the rising cost of production due to climbs in energy prices.

The Biden Administration and Energy Costs

While some in the Biden administration try to point the finger at the Ukrainian war with Russia as the culprit. Most people are not that naïve. Energy prices were on the rise before the war and it can be seen that the bullish trend in the price of crude oil has existed since the Biden administration took power.

President Biden during his recent trip to Japan spoke about inflation caused by rising energy prices that were in ‘transition’. He made it clear that rising energy prices in the U.S are happening because the U.S is following a green environment policy and that the shift in regulatory mandates is driving the costs of energy higher. This combined with the Federal Reserve’s frequent talk about inflation and its desire to raise interest rates has made for a dangerous combination.

Noise will remain at a High Volume

Inflation may come down in the coming months. Demand for certain commodities may erode to some extent. However the cost of energy is probably going to remain high throughout the summer. The additional shadow of mid-term elections in the U.S and the potential for a shift in power in the U.S Congress are going to affect nervous sentiment among financial institutions in the coming months leading right up to November.

Traders need to prepare for noise which will come from pundits as they express their opinions. Speculators who are day traders also have to take into consideration that their short term goals are in direct opposition to that of long term financial institutions. The difference in trading outlooks and monetary capabilities make this a difficult environment for day traders in the current market conditions.

Following short term trends for day traders based on behavioral sentiment is viable. Technical charts can be used to gather short term evidence, but this will not stop the constant threat of reversals and spikes in price velocity from suddenly gathering power and creating momentary bedlam.

Eliminating the noise generating from pundits who can walk away from their statements without any consequences is a must. Unfortunately the comments coming from the Federal Reserve and White House are often hard to ignore and cause reactions in the marketplace; because their words matter even if they sometimes seem to forget what they have said in the past.