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India Insider: Nifty Defense Index Surges in 2025 Rearmament

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCorporateFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Nifty Defense Index Surges in 2025 Rearmament

2025 has marked a defining moment for defense equities, both globally and in India. The Nifty India Defence (Defense) Index, which tracks the country’s leading defense manufacturers, has surged sharply on the back of robust order flows, a structural policy shift, and increasingly volatile geopolitical conditions. This rise is not an isolated event but part of a broader global rearmament cycle that is reshaping the defense industrial landscape.

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Nifty India Defence (Defense) Index One Year Chart as of 20th November 2025

India’s defense sector has been one of the standout performers in the domestic equity market. By mid-2025, the Nifty Defense Index had risen more than 25% year to date, outperforming most sectoral indices. This rally is primarily anchored in strong capital expenditure by the Government of India, which continues to accelerate indigenous military modernization. The Defense Ministry’s approvals which is running into tens of thousands of crores have expanded visibility for companies such as HAL, Bharat Electronics, Bharat Dynamics, and shipbuilding PSUs (Public Sector Undertakings). For investors, the nature of long durations within defense order books has provided earnings stability at a time when other manufacturing sectors have been grappling with cyclical softness.

The second driver has been a multi-year strategic shift toward import substitution. India’s reliance on foreign weapons systems has long strained its current accounts and created operational vulnerabilities. However, the ongoing indigenization push, reinforced by Production Linked Incentive schemes, procurement embargoes on foreign systems, and export incentives, has fundamentally realigned the sector. Defense exports have crossed record levels, and Indian firms are increasingly integrated into global supply chains for electronics, avionics, and ammunition.

Global Industrial Defense Rebirth

But the domestic story is tightly interconnected with developments abroad. The global defense market is undergoing its most significant expansion since the post 9/11 decade. Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Red Sea shipping crisis, conflict in the Middle East, and a renewed great power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific have pushed countries to reassess defense readiness. NATO’s decision in 2025 to raise defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 5% by 2035 has far reaching implications. This commitment translates into trillions of dollars in additional defense outlays over the coming decade, making Europe one of the fastest-growing defense markets.

Companies such as Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman are already reporting record order inflows. Rheinmetall, Germany’s largest defense company, expects its revenues to quintuple by 2030, reflecting unprecedented demand for advanced artillery, ammunition, and combat vehicles. The United States, meanwhile, continues to channel significant funding into hypersonic, missile defense, and drone systems as competition with China intensifies.

India’s Edge in Rearmaments and Technology

This global rearmament wave has a direct spillover effect on India. International supply chain shortages particularly for semiconductors, propulsion systems, and munitions have created opportunities for Indian firms to plug capability gaps. With a cheaper cost base and growing technological sophistication, Indian defense manufacturers are emerging as viable exporters in segments such as UAVs, naval platforms, and electronic warfare systems.

In this environment, the rally in the Nifty Defense Index is not merely speculative exuberance, but a significant reflection of structural and synchronized global demand. As defense has evolved from a low beta sector to a strategic growth industry, India’s integration into the global defense economy positions its companies for sustained earnings expansion over the next decade.

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An Expanding Axis – Will Egypt and Pakistan Become Members?

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentBusinessFeatured Highlights

An Expanding Axis - Will Egypt and Pakistan Become Members?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 26th of May via The Angry Demagogue.

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China seems to be taking advantage of the transition from the Obama-Biden appeasement based foreign policy to the Trump commercial based system. Whereas Obama-Biden had no problem punishing allies that dared to oppose the US-EU appeasement and woke revolution, Trump is looking to create alliances based on commerce – and threatens allies that don’t go along. While the Obama-Biden policy failed utterly and arguably caused the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the Trump administration seems to be playing for time as it restructures the global security order.

China however does not seem to care to wait and are stretching their sway not only in the South China Sea but westward towards the Middle East. The four member Axis – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea seems to be expanding to other countries with strong military dictatorships. Egypt and Pakistan will be the next members of the Axis. While much of China’s belt and road policy deals with bankrupting poor, weak countries, they seem now to concentrate on strong military dictatorships. Egypt and Pakistan are being pried from the western camp as we speak.

Pakistan has, for awhile not been firmly in the western camp. It was a cold war U.S ally as India, while democratic, sided with the Soviets on most international issues. While the US was busy in Afghanistan, the Pakistanis played double agent. Now that the U.S is not in the region and the U.S and India have become closer, Pakistan is now firmly in the Chinese camp.

In addition to Pakistan, Egypt becoming the next major member of the Axis.

Let’s take a few steps back and examine the burgeoning relationship between Egypt – a military dictatorship and Communist China. As we have written China and Egypt had joint military maneuvers that included deliberate violations of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty guaranteed by the United States. Egypt, in thumbing its nose not only at Israel but at the United States, allowed Chinese planes to approach the Israeli border in order to test Israeli reaction to a possible invasion. Multiple Chinese military cargo jets flew in undisclosed hardware in the days leading up to the maneuvers.

Three more Chinese Y-20 cargo planes landed in Egypt last week again, carrying unknown hardware. At least one of these planes came from Pakistan. Egypt also seems to be signing major arms deals with France as Macron reeks of desperation in his attempt to remain relevant – but a de Gaulle he is not, and he will not be able to create a force or policy independent of the U.S. Egypt will be glad to take advanced French weaponry while it creates a stronger alliance with China.

Back to Pakistan one has to wonder if the Pakistan-Indian flareup a prelude to what can happen in other theatres – or worse, a purposeful conflagration to test Chinese weapons systems in actual combat and keep the West on its back feet? According to most reports they were able to shoot down between 3 and 5 of France’s most advanced Rafal fighters without even entering Indian territory. The confrontation started with a heinous terrorist attack against Indians in Kashmir by a terror group associated with the Pakistani armed forces. India claims that Pakistan is directly involved in the attack. If so, this would not have been the first one.

The downing of the Indian French built Rafal fighters by Pakistan’s Chinese produced 10-C was, according to expert reports, not just or even mainly superior piloting but with a Chinese strategy and technology that includes all aspects of air power – including recognition of the target, locking on and attack from distances in what an American air expert called a perfect air based killing machine. This would seem to be the first real test of Chinese advanced air-power and it something that needed to be done before any invasion of Taiwan. This may not test their own pilots but it does test the strategy and the technology.

China has a main medium term goal here and it is not a secret. They are planning to take Taiwan by force and need to make sure their soldiers, sailors and hardware are up to the job. They have seen how poorly the Russian army has performed and have seen how Israel has dismantled Iran’s defenses and swatted away Iran’s offensive attacks. China has not fought a major war for decades and for all the advances they say they have made – all have been untested. Until now.

China will not risk a war with India itself but would be more than happy to have its proxy involved. Chinese fighters and their new “over the horizon” missiles are key in their plans to deter the U.S from defending Taiwan – or in defeating U.S naval airpower if the U.S does get actively involved. However, as close as French technology is to America’s it is not the same and the one country that seems to have taken U.S technology to the next level is Israel. How would Chinese weaponry due against American arms in the hands of an air force equivalent in skill and bravery to the American air forces? That has yet to be tested but that brings us back to Egypt. Is it in China’s interests for Egypt to make a major break with the U.S at China’s urging much as they made a break with the Soviet Union at America’s urging? Of course. Would that mean that China might help Egypt provoke a military confrontation with Israel in order to test Chinese arms and relieve pressure on Iran? Maybe.

On to Iran then, where it does not seem that the Americans or Israelis understand the nature of the Iranian-Chinese relationship. Not only does China get the bulk of its oil (subsidized) from Iran but they have just completed a rail link from Xinjiang, China to Teheran, Iran – running through four countries. This rail line can ship oil as well as other cargo, cutting into the American (and Indian) naval superiority around the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. The assumption by military planners has always been that the U.S can cut off Chinese access to oil, if necessary. That is no longer the case.

China is not standing still – they are expanding their axis of dictatorships to countries in which the army is in control. Pakistan and Egypt qualify. Iran, while a theocracy is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. No matter the “deal” that the Trump administration negotiates with Iran they will not be pried away from Iran. China has more to offer an ideological dictatorship then commercial deals with the United States. What the alleged realists in foreign policy refuse to understand is that dictatorships have no interest in commercial success if it weakens their grip on power. They are interested in deals that enrich their regimes since that also strengthens their grip on their people.

The trillion of so dollars in deals that the U.S has now made with the Persian Gulf states ensures that America remains a player in the middle east. Those who think that the Mideast is a tertiary region at best – after Asia and South America – need to rethink their strategies. As China closes in on control of the world from the Pacific to the Mediterranean the U.S is left with just two military powers it can depend on – Israel and India – to help defend its old/new commercial interests. It is not only oil – it is not Boeing jets, Nvidia chips and many other products that are moving from the US to the Gulf as opposed from the Gulf to the U.S. The U.S is no longer a commercial client of the Gulf states but the country who needs to protect its clients. The relationship has changed but the security relationship has only gotten more important.

The addition of Egypt and Pakistan to the Axis means that the Chinese threat has expanded. They are not giving up on Taiwan, nor are they giving up on South America and the Pacific Ocean but rather, China is using its experience as a dictatorship to strengthen ties with other freedom hating countries. We can all pretend that values and culture don’t matter, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t. This Axis is one where the interest of each member is to stay in power, force its will on its people and enrich itself at the expense of its people. This is an Axis, not only of the unfree, but of those who need to eradicate freedom to “thrive”.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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Impolite Opinion: BRICS Long-Term Plans & Implications Part 1

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Impolite Opinion: BRICS Long-Term Plans & Implications Part 1

The global Forex market is spastic and many major currencies are traversing within weaker whipsaw value ranges against the USD. The currency pairs are trading in price bands seen before the Fed cut its Federal Funds Rate by 0.50 basis points on the 18th of September. And there is still one and a half weeks of assured volatility that will be demonstrated. Crucial U.S data is on the schedule in the coming days via the Advance GDP and Non-Farm Employment Change statistics, and the U.S Presidential election is edging closer. Israel and Iran continue to play a game of cat and mouse in the Middle East, which thus far has led to a controlled chaos and not worldwide bedlam. Financial institutions have plenty of reasons to be apprehensive.

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Expansion of BRICS Feels Inevitable

Now let’s turn our attention to a tectonic foundational shift building in global trade and geopolitics. Attention on short-term behavioral sentiment which is fragile and has a less than clear mid-term perspective, needs long-term considerations too. Investors are required to contemplate possible dangers that are hiding in open sight and will pose a problem in the future.

The BRICS 2024 Summit was conducted this week in Kazan, Russia. This included the new member nations of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. I am not here to give you a major recap on what took place behind closed doors. I wasn’t invited. But we should look at some of the results and statements made and what they imply strategically.

The BRICS attendees to this year’s conference included powerful dignitaries from approximately 36 nations. One major result of this BRICS conference was to award Partner State status to 13 countries including Algeria, Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Nigeria, Uganda, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Cuba and Bolivia. Saudi Arabia was invited last year and has not made their full participation official yet, but they attended this year’s conference as an invited guest. The trend appears clear, we are entering a new paradigm in which long-term thinking by the BRICS nations could out maneuver the short-term nonchalance of the West and this has implications for the USD long-term.

There were high level meetings between leaders of BRICS countries including China, India and Russia. Perhaps, more importantly was Vladimir Putin’s bold statement about BRICS desire to start its own grain exchange. Putin also advocated for the creation of a BRICS cartel in other commodities such as metals, including gold. Gemstones such as diamonds and emeralds could develop into a sizeable entity too. This needs to be taken seriously by the West.

Credence must be given because the BRICS nations already are among the largest producers of grains, legumes and oilseeds. The scope of commodity production and supply capabilities by BRICS could certainly turn into a painful thorn in the side of existing large trading companies. And a potentially coordinated energy sector via Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Russia and others must be taken into account.

Russia and China as Friends of the Underdogs

Historical entanglements put Western nations like France and others in a vulnerable spot diplomatically as they try to maintain alliances with many BRICS nations. France serves as a good example of diminishing Western influence. France remains on the ground overtly in Africa while dealing with vestiges of a colonial past. But France’s influence in Africa is under stress and their ability to use the continent as a source of power and financial gain is being confronted. France still maintains the Presidential Council for Africa, but France is likely perceived by many of the participants as a wolf dressed in sheep’s clothing. Coups in French influenced African nations have a bloody and present history when political diplomacy does not go well.

Exploiters of the past in many African nations are looked upon with derision and scorn. Russia and China are often viewed as friendly countries who helped fight along the side of certain African nations who sought and achieved independence. The ability to create ascendancy in Africa by Russia and China needs to be looked at within a prism that suggests additional spheres of power will develop in BRICS. Many nations that dealt with colonial statuses in the past are rightfully intent on shaking off the notion of being considered laggards.

The West certainly knows in no uncertain terms it cannot return to colonialism. However, African governments should make sure they are not replacing old masters for new. While some might say it is wishful thinking – and I am still on the fence contemplating the notion – on the part of Russia and China to create powerful commodity cartels, if achieved this actually could prove to be an emphatic first step in attempting to secure a new and powerful currency by backing it with a foundation of intrinsic value. Brazil and South Africa would be a big part of this underpinning too. Russia and China’s foray into Africa via their military and money lending excursions, and the already created organizational and trade structures which exists within BRICS opens the door for the perceived underdogs to battle together against the power of Western riches.

A competition is certainly underway between the West and BRICS. What exactly is the U.S doing in Angola? The planed visit of Joe Biden in the first week of December, which was supposed to take place in mid-October was postponed due to the recent hurricanes. Will the U.S presidential visit be anything more than a sideshow, particularly if the Democrats do not win the election on November the 5th? Angola has a massive amount of Crude Oil and is an OPEC member. American energy companies and other Western corporations are active commercial participants in the African nation. However, China has a firm financial stake in Angola via infrastructure projects too. The political and financial implications between BRICS and the West is a growing dynamic, one that will be further discussed in Part 2.

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Trading Risks: Easy to be Nervous Now, But Calm is Needed

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Trading Risks: Easy to be Nervous Now, But Calm is Needed

Simply put it is too easy to be nervous when contemplating the markets if you are a day trader. Today the Non-Farm Employment Change data will be published in the U.S and the Middle East conflict continues to reverberate. However, if a speculator looks at the markets they will see risk adverse trading has produced rather predictable results in many assets.

Gold remains within its higher known price realm, and WTI Crude Oil is trading around 74.00 USD after President Joe Biden for some odd reason felt it was necessary to discuss publicly potential targets Israel may pursue against Iran. Also, Biden’s influence on the decision making in the Middle East appears to be fleeting and this is making financial institutions additionally anxious.

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WTI Crude Oil Five Day Chart as of 4th of October 2024

The employment numbers from the U.S today are vital regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for November. If today’s jobs statistics come in weaker than expected this could help the USD lose some ground in Forex against major currencies. However, there is also the prospect that headwinds via concerns from the Middle East will keep a steady diet of risk adverse trading a driver for behavioral sentiment going into the weekend. Forex remains dangerous for day traders in the near-term.

Traders who believe more volatility will come because of the ramifications in the Middle East can certainly pursue assets like gold and WTI Crude Oil. Correlations with risks that are flourishing as potential conflict brews is not a foolish wager, but it is also difficult for speculators to pursue these trades via CFDs offered by many brokers, this because day traders may have to hold onto their positions too long in order to take advantage of potential moves. If a speculator can pursue options positions via future markets, this could prove to be a solid tool, provided strike prices are not outrageously expensive and the prospect of time erosion is not too fast.

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Gold Five Day Chart as of 4th of October 2024

This is not an easy time to be a day trader and those that are nervous should choose to remain on the sidelines. U.S Treasury yields have increased this week as behavioral sentiment has become jittery. It is important to remember however that short-term reactions are frequently not related to long-term outlooks. Treasury yields have come down significantly in the mid-term and remain within the lower part of their range. The same can be said for equity indices this week. The notion that the world will not spin out of total control should be considered. Risk adverse trading will certainly begin to gravitate towards optimism at some point, it is only a question of time.

The point for day traders is this, it is easy to be nervous. Watching television all day and looking at smartphones for updates on developing sagas does not help create calm. Large institutional traders have been within these volatile waters before. Yes, large players also have to remain diligent, but they will certainly do their best to remain realistic. Short-term price velocity often leads to reversals and you can be assured large financial institutions will take advantage of this insight.

If today’s U.S jobs numbers meet or come around expectations this would be a welcome result for markets which appear to be standing on fragile ground. Traders while looking at today’s Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings statistics should also be mindful of downward revisions to previous reports which have occurred almost consistently for a handful of months. Initial trading reactions to the publication of jobs data are often met with sudden reversals due to revisions in numbers being spotted a few moments later by analysts.

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USD/JPY Five Day Chart as of 4th October 2024

As for the Middle East, financial institutions and traders are all in the same boat. Patience and deep breaths are needed. The trillion dollar question lurking, is there an end game that is viable and can restore calm, or will retribution and hatred cause the conflict to spiral out of control?

The volatility seen in Forex the past handful of days, including the USD/JPY, have caused dynamic results. There is no denying risk adverse trading has taken hold of the marketplace. The trifecta of U.S jobs numbers today, tensions in the Middle East, and the approaching U.S election have set the table for a tumultuous meal. At some point day traders may want to walk away from the table to avoid indigestion and return only when tranquility has been restored.

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Trading with Tomorrow in Mind as Risk Adverse Emotions Grow

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Trading with Tomorrow in Mind as Risk Adverse Emotions Grow

Speculators by nature have to be optimistic about perceived outcomes. As risk adverse conditions hit global markets both financial institutions and traders are still engaged with tomorrow and the days ahead. Tomorrow is definitely going to happen. Calmer heads at some point will prevail. Current nervousness will subside. Thus far today relatively tranquil trading has been seen as prices remain within known technical equilibriums.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 2nd October 2024

While people contemplate the tensions from the Middle East the markets remain quite active. Gold as of this writing is near 2,650.00 USD per ounce. And WTI Crude Oil is trading around 72.00 USD per barrel. The value of Gold has been in a strong bullish trend the past year it could be argued, and WTI has been bearish throughout the mid-term.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 2nd October 2024

While saber rattling in the Middle East threatens to escalate, financial institutions are still gearing towards Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change numbers. The data is expected to come within the grasp of last month’s hiring figures, but Average Hourly Earnings are expected to drop slightly. If the jobs numbers come in weaker this could spark USD centric weakness. That is if risk adverse trading moderates.

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USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 2nd October 2024

The past day has seen heightened nervousness, but it must be pointed out that value realms are still maintaining rather optimistic outlooks regarding the Fed’s ability to remain dovish. What needs to happen now for the markets to turn tranquil are jobs reports on Friday to confirm outlooks, and for Israel and Iran not to engage in an all encompassing war. A look at the USD Cash Index shows a slight uptick, but it is definitely maintaining lower realms.

While risk adverse trading can be blamed for the results seen in the markets the past couple of days, it should also be pointed out that cautious perspectives are being practiced by some financial institutions who simply may believe values via USD centric weakness may have been overdone in the near-term. While many financial houses certainly believe the USD is bound to be weaker mid-term because of the Federal Reserve, do not mistake their short-term trading with their long-term outlooks.

Many people believe banks do not bet on the direction of Forex. But a look at the cash forward trading that banks do for their commercial clients demonstrates banks have skin in the game, and are trying to protect themselves via a multitude of layered hedging which still amounts to speculation.

Leaving us with the final point, day traders need to protect their accounts too by understanding market conditions. Volatility in the near-term is almost a certainty. Speculators should be careful not to get caught up in the amplitude of fear that is being generated by media sources looking to gain viewers. Betting blindly on outcomes because of fear will lead to costly mistakes. Eliminate the noise.

Optimistic attitudes frequently win. Day traders need to remain patient, keep an eye on developing news from the Middle East, but understand that U.S economic data results still provide the most navigable winds. Impetus will move gold, WTI Crude Oil, the USD, and equity indices via dynamic thrusts over the next few days.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

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10. Word of the Day: Like crepuscular animals which are active during twilight, large market players are ruminating as their summer hiatus draws to an end over the next week and a half. Plans for coming hunts are being formulated as leisure concludes for financial institutions preparing to work in the shadows.

9. Scrolling Failures: Lack of solid results on search engines are becoming a growing annoyance. Is it just us? An abundance of poor information via defined searches on the internet and finding what is sought is becoming increasingly problematic. Is AI being allowed to do too much while still too dumb? AI doesn’t know when it is wrong. Competitors to Google and others are sought.

8. How Dare Us: The postponement of imposed dates regarding energy policy changes are multiplying. The end for the classical use of oil, coal and nuclear is not near. Efficient power is evolving, but this will have to include ‘antique’ generation and grids. The demand for electric vehicles are being confronted with declining sales via U.S consumers. Tangible technology needs precise planning, not apocalyptic rhetoric which tries to scare people.

7. Middle East Calm: The storm is being limited within a tea cup for the moment. The potential for a dangerous boiling painful mess still exists. ‘Serenity now’ remains a mantra for those who need to pay attention as chagrin and anxiousness mix.

6. Fed Retreat: The FOMC Meeting Minutes released this week showed some Fed members remained cautious, while others banged the drum louder regarding interest rate cuts. However, a Fed Funds Rate reduction is almost a 100% certainty for the 18th of September. The question now is what the Fed will do in November. Fed Chairman Powell and a slew of other renowned global central bankers will speak today and tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Financial institutions largely believe they know what is going to be said, but comments from Bank of Japan and Brazilian leadership could prove to be informative and entertaining for central bank nerds. Monday could be volatile for USD/BRL traders.

5. VIX: The CBOE’s Volatility Index climbed to the 56 vicinity on the 5th of August as panic grew via widespread overreactions to hyperbole ripping through the markets. The fear gauge is near the 17.55 ratio as of this writing. Market calm has resumed across the board as financial institutions and day traders have been able to achieve a pleasant tone again. Traders who use the VIX as a template regarding the potential of risks suddenly cascading into assets should keep their eyes on the index, which went to a low around the 14.45 mark on Monday. Yet, the slight incremental climb the past few days could be coming from folks still speculating on volatility which may not develop near-term.

4. Barometers: Gold is lingering slightly below 2,500.00 for the moment, this after having achieved a record high on Tuesday when it touched the 2532.00 apex. WTI Crude Oil is near 74.00 USD per barrel and is maintaining a polite value range. Speculatively, Cocoa is again above 9,000 USD per ton and Bitcoin has fought its way above 61,000 this morning. Risk appetite remains stable for the moment.

3. Forex: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, even the USD/ZAR have been able to hold onto their recent trends as USD centric weakness remains viable. Traders who were looking for huge moves in FX this week have likely been disappointed. Retail speculators need to understand financial institutions have been positioning for a weaker USD since the tail end of July. Market players may be quite pleased regarding current Forex equilibrium, which may allow technical traders the ability to take advantage of existing behavioral sentiment, this as reversals flourish and the next big wave of impetus is awaited. Next Thursday’s U.S Preliminary GDP numbers may deliver some noise.

2. Cassandras: Market experts who proclaimed a long-term stock market crash in early August have crawled back into their caves to take cover and percolate their next fear mongering tactics. This after the latest round of predicted catastrophes have vanished. While the major U.S stock indices are not at record highs, they have recovered plenty of lost ground and appear ready for more days in the sun.

1. Political Winds: The curtain closed on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last night without a serious hiccup. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now enter a crucial phase of campaigning, and will get plenty of attention as they go into attack mode. The next big event for Harris and Trump will be their televised debate on the 10th of September. Will the outcome prove to be a devastating storm for one of the candidates?

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Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsInvesting

Middle East is Proving to be a New Playground for the Axis

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 4th of July with an addendum on the 5th via The Angry Demagogue.

Blinken Gets Pushed to the Back of the Line

While the Biden-Blinken Administration is obsessing on “non-escalation” and telling allies they are on their own if they attack an Axis member that attacks the ally,  or that they will help the ally “defend itself” but not take the offensive (how you do that is a mystery) the Axis itself is establishing itself all over the Middle East.

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Let’s start with a statement, quoted in Israel, by Alexander Dugin who is Putin’s ideological advisor advising the Russian leadership to arm Hezbollah and the Houthis in their fight against Israel. Earlier this week, Newsweek reported that Russia is considering arming the Houthis with cruise missiles. These could be used against Israel and against Saudi Arabia – or maybe U.S bases in the area. As Russia seeks to cement its ties with anti-Western countries and forces around the world, it seems to be partnering with Iran so as to increase the potency of Iran’s proxies and press their goal to rid the region of U.S forces. Toward this goal Iran and even Russia are manufacturing tanks together in Iran.

The Houthis themselves, under with the guidance of Iran, are attempting to expand their sea blockade from Bab al Mandab straits connecting the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea, to the east African coast by cooperating with the Sunni and al-Qaeda based Somali terrorist group al-Shabaab al-Mujahadin. Reports in Israel quoting U.S intelligence sources claim that the two groups are cooperating and that the Houthis will supply weapons to al-Shabaab in order to interdict global shipping off the Somali coast and in order to harass U.S forces stationed in the area.

The anti-U.S alliance seem to be able to cross religious and ideological boundaries in ways that western intelligence thought impossible. That is because western (and Israeli) intelligence mis-categorize all of these groups and countries. The issue is not who is Sunni and who is Shiite, who is Russian Orthodox and who is Communist, but rather, who is for keeping the international status-quo and who’s for, to use a phrase meant for different times – a “new global order”.  

The Houthis, feeling confident in having defeated the U.S Navy in the Red Sea are now threatening Saudi Arabia for saying no to a Russian negotiated deal (under the auspices of the U.N and opposed by the U.S) which would bring an end to the embargo against the Houthis including their export of oil as well as Saudi financing of the Houthi civil government in the part of Yemen they occupy (they learned from Hamas and Qatar/PA/Israel that you really can have your enemies pay your salaries) amongst other goodies. They blame Saudi Arabia for allowing U.S jets to bomb Houthi sites from airbases inside Saudi Arabia – with no U.S carriers in the Red Sea that certainly could be true. In their threat they included videos of their bombing of Saudi oil fields in 2019 just in case the Saudis forgot. 

The Houthis, with their experience stopping shipping, have, according to a JCPA report been the point men for Iran’s plan to extend the sea embargo against Israel to the Mediterranean. This would not only hurt Israeli shipping but also the ability of its Air Force to operate properly. We wrote recently about Iran’s possible plans for Cyprus, including Hezbollah’s open threat to them, and this fits nicely with their plan to ring Israel with fire on all sides. We already know that Russian intelligence vessels are in the Mediterranean tracking Israeli submarines and that the Russian naval base in Syria is a safe haven for Iranian shipping. 

Just this week an Iranian vessel filled with arms for Hezbollah anchored in the Syrian port of Latakia (why did Israel not sink this??!!) which is 100kms (60 miles) north of the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria – was it escorted in by the Russian Navy? Is that why?  

The U.S now has three main allies in the Middle East – Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE, and with the exception that the UAE administration has a habit of criticizing and threatening these allies. 

It boggles the mind that Blinken does not see what the entire world sees – a so far successful effort rid the Middle East of the U.S and its allies. For Israel that means annihilation and for Saudi Arabia it means probably surrender to the Iranians while its royal family is allowed to enjoy their money (best case scenario). For the UAE it means it will be used even more than it currently is as an Axis financial center. For the U.S it means a withdrawal, not to the Western Hemisphere – but to the northern half of it. 

The Middle East is slowly becoming the playground of the Axis and it is just a matter of time before the West won’t be able to get a turn on the swings.

Addendum: A short follow regarding the Houthi ultimatum to Saudi Arabia

The Houthi’s gave the Saudis 72 hours to respond and respond they did. The Saudis have agreed to all the demands of the Houthis as they realized that the United States will not defend them from attack and are unwilling or unable to deter, let alone to destroy the Houthis offensive capabilities.

Amongst the Houthi demands that the Saudis agreed to are:

1. The re-opening of the airport in Sana’a, Yemen.  They will allow direct flights to bring pilgrims to Mecca, flights to Jordan and soon flights to everywhere. This will allow the Houthis to be re-armed by the Iranians via air transport.

2. Payment, by Saudi Arabia of Houthi government employees.

3. Allowing the Houthis to sell oil – ending the embargo.

This is a plan, as stated, sponsored by Russia and not opposed by the United States. It is a further move by the Axis into pushing the U.S out of the region. It is not clear if part of this agreement is for the Saudis to disallow U.S use of the Prince Sultan Ari Base for attacks on the Houthis.  

As an aside, the UAE has suggested that the U.S setup a base in Somaliland – a breakaway country in the horn of Africa on the coast of the Gulf of Aden and bordered by Djibouti and Ethiopia (and of course Somalia). This seems to be an attempt to rid the Gulf States of the responsibility to host U.S forces that attack Iranian proxies.  Could Biden’s “you are on your own if you attack Iran” (back in April after the 300 projectile attack on Israel) have influenced their decision?

Russia and Iran are on the rise in the region as the U.S administration preaches de-escalation and appeasement. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsRisk Analysis

Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

The Israel-Iran War is soon to enter its 7th month even though last night was the first face to face confrontation between the two countries.

There was much less panic in the air on the “Israeli street” than one would expect after Iranian threats over the last week. I was clearly wrong in my assessment that Iran would not want to start something big with Israel and risk having a chunk of their strategic power degraded but it is hard predicting what fanatics will do. The question is if the utter failure of the attack will bring Iran shame in the Muslim world or if the fact that they sent missiles and drones will be counted as a “victory” even if no damage was done to Israel. Or it could be that Iran was counting on Biden-Blinken holding back Israel from responding and sure enough, NBC is reporting exactly that:

President Joe Biden has privately expressed concern that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict, according to three people familiar with his comments.

Last night at about 8:15pm IDF Homefront Command announced that all schools and all educational activity would be cancelled until further notice, angering parents everywhere. A few minutes later they announced that 10’s or hundreds of drones were launched from Iran and on their way to Israel. The news reported that it would take 8-10 hours to arrive, sparking this to make its round on the Whatsapp groups in this very interconnected country:
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Google maps also cooperated:

Friends and family in Jerusalem and surrounding areas were awakened by alarms and scurried to the bomb shelters, children in their arms. There were alarms also in the West Bank, the Golan Heights and the Northern Negev dessert. Apparently, the main targets were two air force bases. One was hit by one missile and minor damage was done and the other was untouched. One 7 year old Bedouin girl was critically injured from pieces of a rocket that was shot down. The headline ought to read: Shiite Missile Critically Injures 7 year old Sunni Girl. 

The effectiveness of Israel’s air defense system seems to have surprised even the Israeli Air Force and special thanks has to be given to President Ronald Reagan for ignoring the comics and media (but I repeat myself) and many scientists and engineers (the experts!) as they made fun of his Strategic Defense Initiative and called it “Star Wars” – claiming that it was something undo-able and dangerous even to talk about.

Then Senator Joe Biden, using his favorite word, “provoke”, is quoted in this 1985 NY Times article:

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, pressed hard for reassurance about whether the proposed defensive weapons might be fired by mistake, thus provoking the Soviet Union to launch a real attack.
 

The Biden foreign policy theory for the last 40 years or more is based on not “provoking” your enemy, no matter the cost and appeasing your enemy at any cost.

Special thanks to the U.S armed forces who shot down numerous drones as did the U.K’s air force as well as Jordan’s. There might have been other Middle Eastern countries involved as there is an unofficial regional air defense system set up with Abraham Accord countries and others not part of the Accords. 100% of the suicide drones and 100% of the cruise missiles and 92% of the ballistic missiles were shot down by Israel’s layered “star wars” system. 

If the IRG is honest with themselves, they will understand that they have been defeated. A combination of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were shot at Israel at once and no drones and no cruise missiles got through. Of the 110 ballistic missiles shot at Israel, 101 were intercepted and only one reached its target. Israeli defense firms closed higher in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange trading today. I imagine Iran’s potential clients are having second thoughts. China too, must be wondering about their own offensive and defensive systems.  

So where does this leave us now?

The War Cabinet assigned to Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Gallant needs to decide on an Israeli response. I am not sure that Israel has the firepower to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites on its own and there is almost no chance we will see U.S B52’s involved.

So the most obvious target is probably off the table.  It seems that the U.S Administration is pressuring Israel not to respond at all and to leave things as they are. This should not surprise anyone who has been awake for the last six months.

Israel and Iran have been at war for the last 6 months – one could say for the last two decades. This was clear to everyone except Biden-Blinken who could have shortened the war and the suffering by punishing Iran for their attacks on US sailors and soldiers.  Instead, they appeased Iran and released $10 billion to them essentially letting Iran hit Israel with this money.   

 The Scroll is reporting that:

We are now waiting to see how Israel responds. Although an unnamed “senior Israeli official” has been quoted promising a “significant response” to the attacks, Iran appears to have pre-cleared the attacks with the United States via the Oman diplomatic backchannel. And according to Roi Kais of Israel’s Kan News, a U.S. official told Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya on Friday, “the United States will take part in the response to the Iranian response if Tehran escalates the situation inappropriately”—which means that the United States tacitly approved an appropriate level of Iranian escalation, such as, we don’t know, a “symbolic” drone-and-missile attack.

The United States has also, as Barack Ravid reported Friday, demanded to “have a say before decisions are made about any retaliation by Israel.”

If true, that is cynicism taken to the ‘Nth degree’. True enough, the United States needs to watch after its own national interests, but is it possible that the U.S government considers Iran its equal and Israel its vassal? Were Israel faced with a missile attack from China an argument could be made that U.S interests take precedence over Israel’s – but Iran? The Iranian economy is in shambles, the Rial is at record lows, its only economic lifeline comes from China, bankrupt Russia, the $10 billion Biden gave them and illegal activities. As Israel just showed– Iran’s vaunted missile force is worth less than advertised. We have not even spoken about the way it treats women and gays and how it treats opponents to its theocracy, how it spreads terror throughout the Middle East and Africa, how it helps Russia destroy Ukraine, how it is a key player in the global drug trade and money laundering.  

We have also not spoken about its foothold in the Western hemisphere and its attempts to infiltrate the United States itself via the porous southern border. 

Worst of all, if the Scroll story is correct, it shows how Biden-Blinken don’t understand what the office of the Presidency of the United States is. It is not just another head of state or head of government, but rather the President’s warnings ought always to be backed up with actions. Biden’s “Don’t Speech 2.0” was laughed at by Iran in public, for all to see. And the Biden-Blinken response is to tell Israel, “don’t”.

Ignoring Biden-Blinken for the moment, Israel must think deeply about its response. It is clear that any response will be followed by more of the same from Iran. Israel must think a few moves ahead and not just attack for the sake of attacking or it will be in the middle of yet another war of attrition. The end of the multiple rounds of attacks must leave Israel in better strategic shape than it is now and must leave Iran substantially weaker.

Whatever Israel decides to do, it must degrade Iran’s military capability by destroying its weapons and bases and killing as many IRG officers as possible. Israel should not bomb the power stations in Tehran or do other non-military strikes. Air force bases, missile silos and Iran’s navy should be targeted in such a way that degrades capabilities. They could start by sinking the Iranian spy ship that is helping the Houthis in the Red Sea.

Israelis seem to think that by “allowing” Iran to attack them it gives them many diplomatic credits, but we already know that these “credits” do not last long.  Whatever Israel does, it ought not to play the “message” game. Its attacks ought to provide tactical advantages in the coming months and not just “warnings to Iran” and “messages to Hezbollah”.

But let’s not ignore Biden-Blinken for a moment.  What if they decide to threaten Israel that if Israel retaliates the US will sit on their hands? 

This would be the time for Israel to do a little threatening of itself. The worst thing for a sitting President running for re-election is a summer gasoline price spike. Israel could certainly threaten to destroy Iran’s oil facilities and help push the price of oil. High gallon gasoline prices this summer will lose Biden more votes than he can gain in Dearborn, Michigan. In exchange for leaving Iran untouched, Israel can demand a free hand in Gaza, including Rafah as well as in Lebanon.  

Would that be worth letting Iran off the hook? It might. Iran was defeated in this battle, but it still believes it will win the war. Giving Israel free reign to destroy Hamas and then Hezbollah means that Iran will lose the war, too. Without Hezbollah, Iran will lose its most important asset in its overall goal of destroying Israel, chasing the US from the Middle East and establishing Shiite dominance in the region. It would turn October 7th into the day that Iran started on its road to defeat.

Israel needs to be opportunistic and aggressive in its dealings with its allies and its enemies. It has to let its allies know that it too is playing the long game and that it will not only hurt those who hurt it – as Netanyahu loves saying – but that it will destroy all who even try to harm it.

More importantly it needs to show its enemies with actions and not with words that threatening Israel means you will be destroyed. 

The Biden-Blinken team must be told in no uncertain terms that Israel is not a vassal.  The end result of this war cannot only be the destruction of Hamas, it must also be the destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regional power. By sending over nearly 60 tons of explosives to Israel, they have put themselves front and center.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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Regional War Spreads: Will Blinken Wake Up to the Reality?

by with No Comment Featured HighlightsRisk AnalysisRisk Management

Regional War Spreads: Will Blinken Wake Up to the Reality?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

Despite the denial of reality by the Blinken State Department the Middle East war gets hotter and spreads eastward (even without) Israel’s intervention. After spending years appeasing the Iranians the world is now faced with the results of that policy. 

Iran has trained and funded terrorists in Gaza and the West Bank where the high intensity battles continue. In Lebanon-Israel there are close to 100,000 Israelis displaced, and it seems more Lebanese have left the area south of the Litani as heavy rocket, tank, artillery and air attacks continue from both sides of the border. Attacks have intensified against Israel from Syria and Yemen, and Iranians and their militias are attacking U.S forces in Iraq and Syria. Turkey, Russia and Syrian forces continue bombing areas of northern Syria and now both Iran and Turkey are bombing Kurdish lands.  

We know what is going on in Yemen and the surrounding seas with global shipping coming to a standstill there, and diminishing Suez Canal traffic is slowly crippling an already disastrous Egyptian economy. The U.S and the U.K have been forced to bomb Houthi areas, but this of course is after the total failure of the Blinken foreign policy of ‘ending’ the war in Yemen by cutting arms sales to the side that was pro-West while encouraging Iran to continue funding, arming and training of their Houthi allies.

A new front has now opened between Pakistan and Iran. We spoke earlier of the Sunni-Shiite war heating up, but it has spread faster and more violently than we expected. 

Over the last few days fighting on the Iran-Pakistan border has heated up. It started with heavy fire between the Pakistani group Jaish ul-Adl and Iranian border guards in the Sistan-Baluchestan border area, and included the assassination of Iranian Hussain Gwadanfur on the Khash-Saravan road.

In other clashes between Iranian and Pakistani forces at least two Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) soldiers were killed, and the IRG has shot rockets into Pakistan hitting Turbat and surrounding areas near the coast.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement claiming that they “undertook a series of highly coordinated …. precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts in Siestan-o-Baluchistan province of Iran”. At the end of the press release they speak of Iran being a “brotherly country” with “great respect and admiration for the Iranian people”. It seems that Pakistan does not want to publicly admit that official Iranian forces were involved in the attacks.

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What is incredible about Iran is that they have now attacked three nuclear armed states – the U.S, Pakistan and Israel – without fear of retaliation. We can only imagine what the Revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran will do once they too have a nuclear weapon.

We are in a regional war with fighting going on daily from Pakistan to Libya. Iran, not Israel, is at the center and is the cause of nearly all the fighting and tough statements and tough actions need to be taken against Iran – not Israel. Senate majority leader Schumer has been quoted as saying that he wants to put extra conditions upon the sale of arms to Israel, but where was he when Obama sent planeloads of cash to Iran and Biden-Blinken released further billions in November of 2023? Where are the conditions placed on a terrorist state?  

The Biden-Blinken foreign policy of appeasing enemies and threatening allies that is at the core of its operation continues apace. First with the cutoff of arms to Saudi Arabia and their Yemeni allies in order to “end the war” and then to “advice” the Ukrainians not to provoke the Russians, and next heavy pressure on Israel to ‘surrender’ to Hamas by leaving them in power.  

One can make deals with countries that are interested in their people. One cannot make deals with terrorist groups or revolutionary states that are looking to upend the global order. That is Iran in a nutshell. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/

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USD/INR and the 83.3000 Resistance Level is Not an Illusion

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

USD/INR and the 83.3000 Resistance Level is Not an Illusion

Traders of the USD/INR for those who remain short-term speculators of the currency pair, as opposed to financial institutions which position holdings for corporations and large investors, may be perplexed about values and momentum over the past three months. It is abundantly clear the USD/INR faces a rather strong force when it approaches the 83.3000 mark. Yes, sometimes the Forex pair has traversed above this level, but the moves have been momentary and have been pushed back.

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USD/INR Three Month Chart as of 8th of November 2023

It is not a conspiratorial thought to simply look at the three month chart of the USD/INR and see that when the 83.3000 level has come into play that selling pressure mounts. And it is not news the Reserve Bank of India is involved in the durability of this resistance level. Simply put the USD/INR doesn’t trade in a ‘free’ market manner, the constraints and persistence of the Reserve Bank of India to maintain a structured resistance value for the USD/INR is evident. The past month, and last five days of trading via technical charts shows the same dynamic. And it is important to point out the resistance level of 83.3000 has been sustained over the mid-term when global risk adverse trading has seen the USD gain strength against many other major currency pairs, meaning the USD/INR should have traded at higher levels.

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USD/INR Five Day Chart as of 8th of November 2023

The Indian government is managing the USD/INR with a philosophy which allows the currency pair to remain within its weaker elements regarding the Indian Rupee, but not allow it to lose too much value. And it must be pointed out that the USD/INR does show an ability to trade lower and the Reserve Bank of India doesn’t appear to mind if this happens. The 83.0000 was challenged from about the 20th to the 24th of October rather consistently and even traded at a low of 82.9300 very briefly.

As global risk conditions remain fragile the USD has shown an ability to remain strong against most major currency pairs, but risk appetite has picked up over the past handful of days. The 83.2000 to 83.2500 range of the USD/INR has been tested with momentary bursts lower. Last week’s U.S Federal Funds Rate was held in place as expected at 5.50%, and financial institutions are starting to believe the Fed has reached the end of its interest rate cycle which has seen consistent hikes. Yes, the U.S is likely to keep its higher interest rates in place over the mid-term, but U.S Treasuries yields are starting to show signs of an incremental decline. If U.S bonds start to decrease via their yields this will help soften the USD.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 8th November 2023

Gold has started to come of its highs, but still remains within an elevated range per its one month chart. If the precious metal continues to trade around its current values, this can be taken as a sign risk sentiment wants to shift. The key word is ‘wants’ and there are no guarantees. While financial institutions have shown the ability to digest the escalated concerns because of the Middle East crisis there is always the possibility developing news can escalate quickly. But will it?

Unfortunately, the media and pundits largely control the narrative that is given to the public. Most traders are not privy to the inner workings of the ‘temples’ in which governments work. The Reserve Bank of India doesn’t issue a statement every time it makes a move within the USD/INR. Nor do the governments of the world which may say one thing publicly and say something else behind closed doors.

Day traders want to be told what to do and how they should react. First off risk management is essential, entry orders are crucial so fills meet expectations. However, achieving the direction desired and wagered upon is a gamble. Take profit and stop losses orders are urged as protection.

If the Reserve Bank of India had not intervened in the USD/INR it is likely the currency pair would have reached the 84.0000 level and higher over the past three months. The question is if risks will decrease now that the U.S Federal Reserve seems prepared to potentially take a less aggressive stance. While it seems logical the USD/INR should have been trading at higher values, the control the government of India has practiced has kept the currency pair within a ‘safe place’ while risks were heightened.

If behavioral sentiment conditions start to turn more tranquil and risk appetite increases it is possible the USD/INR could actually continue to show some selling momentum. However, traders looking for declines in the USD/INR need to be conservative and they might want to wait for the currency pair to come within sight of resistance levels to wager on short and near-term movements lower. Overly ambitious selling is likely to remain an expensive mistake until the U.S equity markets show sustained buying and U.S Treasury yields are no longer threatening long-term highs. Until there is a legitimate shift in behavioral sentiment, looking for quick hitting changes of value in the USD/INR needs to remain the focus for day traders.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

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10. NBA: Welcome to Victor Wembanyama’s world. VW’s 5th game as a Spur was historic last night.

9. South Africa: The Springboks Rugby World Cup victory is helping unifying the nation and giving all its citizens a hope for better days.

8. Book: The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn.

7. Crypto: Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all counts. Yet, Bitcoin is near 34,600.00 USD per coin.

6. Risks: Signs of appetite as U.S equity indices have moved higher, and U.S Treasury yields have declined.

5. Gold: The precious metal still lingering near 2000.00 USD and may attract bearish speculative positions.

4. Middle East: Global financial institutions appear to have dealt with the noise.

3. U.S Jobs Reports: Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings inflation data will be published today and shake markets.

2. Federal Reserve: The U.S central bank may have reached the end of it interest rates hikes cycle.

1. USD: The world’s reserve currency remains suspiciously strong and if it is a relatively calm today and this weekend, day traders may begin to embrace selling wagers.