post215

New Year’s Thought on AUD/USD Potential Intervention by RBA

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

New Year's Thought on AUD/USD Potential Intervention by RBA

post215
AUD/USD One Year Chart as of 1st January 2025

1 year chart of AUDUSD showing decline and lows as rumors swirl about the Reserve Bank of Australia contemplating intervention due to weak Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD and AMT thoughts: Australia’s govt is led by the Labor party which is socialist based, so it would be no surprise if they and the Reserve Bank of Australia believe (wrongly) they can intervene to help the strength of the AUD, when actually they should work on improving the fundamentals of their economy with solid fiscal policy. But being socialists they don’t know how to do that. Labor is going to lose big in the next Australian federal government election.

postN80.2

Risky Outlooks: Central Banks and Inflation Colliding

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Risky Outlooks: Central Banks and Inflation Colliding

Most traders and investors begin their pursuit of financial assets with an optimistic perspective. However, the markets and ability to speculate also allows those who have other outlooks to equally participate. The past week once again delivered U.S inflation data which was not anticipated. While last Tuesday’s CPI results came in slightly stronger than expected, it was Thursday’s PPI which provided surprises for many.

postN80.1
Producer Price Index Warning from AMT for the 14th of March 2024

Yet, some market participants may not have been utterly shocked by the results. Perhaps it was lucky to ‘guess’ the PPI numbers could cause volatility last Thursday, but the ability to be alert and attentive to the possibility of risk should not be ignored. Risk management is important for all traders.

This coming week will continue to be intriguing for day traders as they try to sail through speculative waters which are going to deliver shifting behavioral sentiment tides. A parade of central banks are ready to step into the limelight and they will focus on the word: inflation. Technical traders who wager on support and resistance levels in the coming days should not be scorned, because sideways and volatile trading results are likely.

U.S equity indices began to struggle the middle of last week, Gold has traded lower and Treasury yields have ticked upwards in recent market action, this as sentiment has again had to acknowledge economic outlooks remains problematic. Trading decisions this week will depend not only on what the central banks say and ‘do’, but also focus on the duration that a speculative position intends to be working.

Monday, 18th of March, China Industrial Production – a gain of 7.0% has beaten the expectation per the data already published this morning. Retail Sales numbers came in slightly below estimates, but Fixed Asset Investment numbers were better than anticipated. However, China’s data remains troublesome and the economic path ahead for the nation must overcome deflation and trust issues from international investors. A lack of confidence from the Chinese public about the value of Real Estate and the over abundance of available property is causing major headwinds economically.

postN80.2
EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Monday, 18th of March, E.U Final Core Consumer Price Index – the European Union will release crucial inflation data. An expected gain of 3.1% is the estimate. While this data release is not considered vital by many investors, the inflation statistics should be watched. The EUR/USD has produced mixed results the past four months as shifting behavioral sentiment due to battling perceptions regarding central bank policy outlooks converge.

postN80.3
USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Tuesday, 19th of March, Bank of Japan – the BoJ will deliver their Monetary Policy Statement and Policy Rate. While no numerical change is expected from the BoJ, signs for a change in rhetoric will be looked for as central bank observers try to read the tea leaves. The Japanese economy is within an intriguing spot, there have been signs of improvement, but the Bank of Japan is likely to remain on a conservative path regarding negative interest rates for the moment. The USD/JPY remains within the higher realms of its price range as the currency pair grapples with global inflation outlooks.

postN80.4
AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2023

Tuesday, 19th of March, Reserve Bank of Australia – the RBA is expected to parrot the pronouncements of the other central banks as they point to stubborn inflation and ‘improving yet lackluster’ economic outlook. Trading in the AUD/USD has been choppy and the volatility is likely to continue within the known price range.

Tuesday, 19th of March, Canada CPI – the Consumer Price Index data is anticipated to show inflation remains remains sticky in the ‘Northern Tundra’. The CPI report from Canada should be monitored because of the strong relationship between the U.S and Canadian economies. The USD/CAD will react to any surprises.

Wednesday, 20th of March, U.K Consumer Price Index – yet another important inflation report. Great Britain has been a ‘poster child’ regarding stagflation. The ugly word is not something central banks, nor governments want to discuss, but the simple truth is that problematic inflation and limited growth equal stagflation. The statistics from the U.K should be examined. The economic health of Great Britain is often a solid reflection of global conditions.

Wednesday, 20th of March, U.S Federal Reserve – the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement and Fed Press Conference will be focal points for investors. Except importantly, not much is likely to be said be Jerome Powell that isn’t known already. Inflation reports from the U.S have highlighted stubborn higher prices. U.S economic numbers regarding manufacturing and consumer confidence have started to turn lower, but the Fed is not going to change its policy this week. Talk about ‘becoming’ dovish will be heard, but the U.S central bank still wants to see more proof that inflation can erode before they start to cut interest rates in the mid-term.

Thursday, 21st of March, E.U Manufacturing and Services PMI, readings will come from France, Germany and the U.K via the Purchasing Managers Index results. Most of the data will likely continue to point to lackluster outlooks, only the Services PMI from the U.K is expected to offer a glimmer of hope regarding ‘expansion’. If the Flash numbers come in worse than expected this could cast a shadow over behavioral sentiment for European investors.

postN80.5
GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 18th March 2024

Thursday, 21st of March, Bank of England – the BoE is likely to keep its Official Bank Rate within place and their pronouncements via the Monetary Policy Summary may sound like a replica of the U.S Federal Reserve. Inflation and growth will be spoken about and the BoE will try its best to paint an optimistic picture. The GBP/USD will react to the gyrations, but the range of the currency pair will have already seen tests in the preceding days. The past four months have produced a value as of the 18th of March, that is hovering slightly above late November and early December 2023 prices.

Friday, 22nd of March, U.K Retail Sales – a negative result of minus -0.3% is expected. The retail data will certainly be watched, but following the massive week of central bank statements and data which have already been published, this number may prove to be rather anti-climatic unless there is a massive surprise.

Friday, 22nd of March, E.U ECB and U.S Fed – Officials from both central banks will engage in a variety of speeches in Europe and the U.S, but again after the week’s worth of central bank rhetoric which has been heard, investors are unlikely to react much to these soundbites from members of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. Existing behavioral sentiment which has been produced in the dynamic days beforehand should remain the central theme as investors go into the weekend.

postN58.1

Nervous Outlooks and Short Term Fixes Creating Anxiousness

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Nervous Outlooks and Short Term Fixes Creating Anxiousness

A U.S government shutdown has been avoided, but the resolution highlights that an important year of political games is getting fully underway in Washington. Short term fixes via congressional agreements do not hide the fact the U.S government continues to bleed money and is adding to its deficit as yields on U.S Treasuries remain high.

postN58.1
Gold Five Day Chart as of 2nd October 2023

The price of gold has sank substantially in the past week, which shows the USD continues to be strong, and that speculative short-term games within the precious metal must always be kept in mind by day traders. Long term fundamental beliefs regarding the value of gold cannot stop momentary volatility.

GDP results from the U.S last week came in slightly below estimates, but the ability to still sustain growth also creates the suspicion the U.S economy remains stubbornly strong, which effectively puts the U.S Federal Reserve in a rather difficult place. Crude Oil prices have remained high, and this week’s coming jobs data will be important for short and mid-term market participants as they position themselves while nervous behavioral sentiment continues to be evident.

U.S stock markets are near three month lows and trading conditions choppy, this as yields on U.S Treasuries are elevated and create a tough road for speculators to navigate in the short-term.

Monday, 2nd of October, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – a reading below 50 is anticipated which would mean sentiment remains negative regarding the U.S economy, but Core Durable Goods Orders came in better than expected last week. Thus, the result of this manufacturing report could play into short and near-term USD trading and cause a ripple as financial houses anticipate the jobs numbers later this week.

Tuesday, 3rd of October, Reserve Bank of Australia – the RBA is expected to keep its Cash Rate in place. If the RBA cooperates with financial institutions and does not change its key borrowing rate , the RBA Rate Statement will come into focus. However, the AUD/USD is still within the shadows of U.S Federal Reserve like most other major currencies.

Wednesday, 4th of October, U.S ISM Services PMI – the outcome from the Services report is expected to fall below last month’s outcome. The slight miss in the GDP numbers last week was noteworthy, but the better than expected Core Durable Goods results will make this report of interest and provide a bit of impetus to the USD and U.S indices before Friday’s key jobs data – particularly if the Services reading is better than anticipated.

postN58.2
GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 2nd Oct. 2023

Thursday, 5th of October, U.K Construction PMI – while not considered a major publication by many analysts, the ordering by purchasing managers in Britain may prove relevant as an indicator regarding outlook. The Bank of England held their interest rates in place a couple of weeks ago and this was based on the belief the U.K economy is slowing. The Construction PMI report is expected to come in slightly below last month’s outcome which could set the table for slight choppiness in the GBP/USD which has continued to trend lower.

Friday, 6th of October, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the combination of these two reports will impact USD trading before their publication and afterwards for several hours. Financial institutions will examine these statistics carefully. If there is a hint of weakness in the U.S jobs market and wage inflation is tame, this could make the USD weaker. However, if jobs hiring remains firm and there is a slight uptick in the costs employers are having to pay workers, the USD could get stronger.

postN49.1

Lack of Big U.S Data this Week but Fed Officials to be Heard

by with No Comment AMT MarketsDataFeatured Highlights

Lack of Big U.S Data this Week but Fed Officials to be Heard

There will be an absence of large trading volume in many markets today, because of the U.S and Canada Labor Day holiday celebrations. Results from forex markets should be considered with a healthy dose of skepticism by day traders. If you choose to participate today, using entry price orders may protect you against the possibility of price volatility due to quiet markets having the ability to create sudden jolts.

Day traders are advised to be on the lookout for potential surges to develop on Tuesday. U.S financial institutions returning to the markets in full could possibly react to economic data from the States that they may not have acted upon yet, this as outlooks may have been reconsidered over the Labor Day weekend. Equities and indices, U.S Treasuries, and gold should get plenty of attention this week as summer trading comes to an end.

postN49.1
EUR/USD Three Months Chart as of 4th Sept. 2023

Monday, 4th of September, E.U ECB President Christine Lagarde – the ECB chief will be speaking in London later today. The ECB President might get the attention of EUR/USD traders who may still be scratching their heads regarding last week’s decline in the EUR and trying to figure out why it happened.

postN49.2
AUD/USD Three Months Chart as of 4th Sept. 2023

Tuesday, 5th of September, Australia RBA Cash Rate – the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its ground and make no major changes to interest rate policy. The AUD/USD is trading at lows the RBA has acknowledged are troubling. However, there seems to be little the RBA can really do except to wait out the U.S Federal Reserve’s rhetoric to change. As a note, GDP numbers will come from Australia on Wednesday.

Wednesday, 6th of September, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its interest rate policy steadfast without any changes. The USD/CAD could react momentarily to the Bank of Canada’s Rate Statement.

Thursday, 7th of September, China Trade Balance – economic statistics from China have been troubling over the mid-term and there is no reason to think they are suddenly going to turn optimistic. China is receiving plenty of negative attention from ‘Western’ analysts, but the concerns expressed could be legitimate. Slumping growth, real estates problems, and the shadow of deflation are issues in China.

Thursday, 7th of September, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – several high ranking members from the Fed will be speaking at various conferences across the States. Following the lackluster economic data published in the U.S the past couple of weeks, comments from the Federal Reserve members should be given attention to see if they begin to acknowledge interest rate policy should turn more dovish. USD traders will certainly have the ability to spark Forex on Thursday if rhetoric from the ‘officials’ starts to change tone.

Friday, 8th of September, Japan Final GDP – the Gross Domestic Product numbers could prove interesting for USD/JPY traders. Growth is expected to show a gain of 1.4%. The GDP Price Index results should be watched and are expected to match last month’s number with a gain of 3.4%.

Saturday, 9th of September, China CPI and PPI – the inflation numbers will be of interest to investors. These data reports could prove more important than the Trade Balance results released earlier in the week. The USD/CNY should be monitored in the wake of these inflation (deflation) results.

postN24

Interest Rates, Fireworks, OPEC, Fed Minutes, and Jobs Data

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Interest Rates, Fireworks, OPEC, Fed Minutes, and Jobs Data

Global day traders will certainly be able to work early this week, but they should note the 4th of July holiday in the U.S will deliver rather light volumes Monday and Tuesday. Markets in the U.S will be open on the 3rd, but speculators need to understand that price action may be flat and then experience sudden bursts of energy. Financial institutions in the U.S could be rather quiet until Wednesday.

Monday, the 3rd of July, European Manufacturing PMI – data will come from across Europe and is expected to show the sector remains rather lackluster. France, Germany, the U.K and others will issue reports.

Monday, the 3rd of July, U.S Manufacturing PMI via the ISM – the Purchasing Managers Index numbers are expected to produce a slight rise, but remain under the level of 50. However, any increase compared to last month’s outcome will be an additional sign the U.S economy is battling on and would give the U.S Federal Reserve another reason to lean towards an interest rate hike later this month.

postN24
AUD/USD One Month Chart as of 2nd July 2023

Tuesday, the 4th of July, Australia RBA Cash Rate and Statement – while some analysts assume no interest rate hike will be delivered in July because the CPI has shown a slight downturn, there seems to be rather large whispers another hike of 0.25% could be added from the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD/USD traders certainly need to pay attention, and folks with limited funds should stay on the sidelines until the decision is released.

Tuesday, the 4th of July, U.S Independence Day – banking holiday.

Wednesday, the 5th of July, China Caixin Services PMI – economic data from China has certainly shown signs of downward pressure. A slight decrease is the expected result.

Wednesday, 5th of July, OPEC Meetings – the energy cartel will be conducting its official get together in Vienna, Austria and oil traders should be on alert for any news and decisions made public that could affect the energy sector.

Wednesday, 5th of July, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication will provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s decision to ‘pause’ interest rate hikes last month, but could also add fuel to the notion the U.S central bank remains within an aggressive stance regarding inflation. Forex markets will react to the report.

Thursday, 6th of July, U.S Services PMI via ISM – the statistics will be monitored closely due to the rather positive outcome from the GDP report last week, which showed the U.S economy remains rather resilient. A positive outcome in the Services numbers will add further evidence for the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish.

Friday, 7th of July, U.S Jobs Numbers – the employment data will culminate as the week comes to an end with the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings figures. Yes, on the day before, Thursday, traders will also see the JOLTS numbers and weekly Unemployment Claims. However, it is the Non-Farm and wages data that financial institutions will largely react upon depending on the outcomes. Because it is a ‘holiday’ week in the U.S, the reports may find a muted response, but financial institutions will use the information to gauge their mid-term outlooks and position their assets including Forex and bonds.

postN16.1

Week Ahead: Summer Begins with Questions Lurking for Traders

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Week Ahead: Summer Begins with Questions Lurking for Traders

Monday, the 19th of June, China Foreign Direct Investment – data from China has been lackluster and last week’s announcement of a stimulus program from the government underscores economic concerns regarding growth.

Monday, the 19th of June, U.S banking holiday – for commemoration of Juneteenth.

postN16.1

AUD/USD Three Month Chart as of 18th June 2023

Tuesday, the 20th of June, Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – report from the Reserve Bank of Australia will interest AUD traders and those with an interest in Asian Pacific economics.

Tuesday, the 20th of June, U.S FOMC member John Willliams – as the President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, is a key member regarding policy. Taking into consideration last week’s pause, traders may want to pay attention to the New York Fed Presidents’s remarks to see if the pause in Federal Funds Rates seen last week is looked upon as a halt or a ‘skip’ by Williams. The difference between a pause and a skip may appear to be semantics, but a skip would mean an interest rate hike is coming in July. Williams is not going to say what is going to happen at the next Federal Reserve meeting, but he may give a hint regarding his opinion on what should be done.

postN16.2

GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 18th June 2023

Wednesday, the 21st of June, U.K Consumer Price Index – the data will be important regarding inflation insights for Britain. The Bank of England is expected to raise their Official Bank Rate on Thursday by 0.25%. Another report showing stubborn inflation could set the table for a rather hawkish Monetary Policy Statement from the BoE.

Wednesday, the 21st of June, U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testimony – the Fed Chairman will begin two days of speaking and taking questions. The first day will be before the House of Representatives and the second day in front of the Senate. Because a major election is coming in the U.S in 2024, this will be an opportunity for politicians from both sides of the aisle to get airtime and take a ‘stance’ while bludgeoning Jerome Powell. The Fed Chairman’s remarks could stir the markets slightly, but Powell will be as careful as possible not to put a scare into the financial sector.

Thursday, the 22nd of June, U.K Bank of England – the Official Bank Rate, Monetary Policy Summary and vote count from the Monetary Policy Committee will be released. A hike has been widely expected by GBP traders and has been factored into the British Pound already.

Thursday, the 22nd of June, U.S Existing Home Sales – the housing report will cause a few murmurs in the marketplace because it is seen as an extension of consumer health and interest rate policy in the U.S regarding behavioral sentiment. Existing home sales numbers have been dropping as people with homes have decided to stay put in their current residences. ‘Locked in’ interest rates are more attractive, instead of taking on a higher rate via a new purchase due to costlier mortgages because of more expensive borrowing fees.

Friday, the 23rd of June, E.U Manufacturing and Services PMI – the flash reports from the likes of Germany, France and the U.K should be watched. Manufacturing readings have been producing recessionary readings while Services data is expected to show incremental decreases too.

Friday, the 23rd of June, U.S Manufacturing and Services PMI – the flash reports via the Purchasing Managers Index data need to be monitored too from the States. The readings give a rather good insight regarding outlook of U.S business sentiment.

postN7

Risks Ahead: Tranquil Data Mixed with Loud Nervous Chatter

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Risks Ahead: Tranquil Data Mixed with Loud Nervous Chatter

Last Friday finished with stronger than expected Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, which essentially collided with dovish rhetoric via two U.S Federal Reserve FOMC members from the middle of the week; this while inflation clearly remains stubborn in the U.S.

All of which sets up this coming week for nervous trading results and until the 14th of June, when the Federal Reserve’s Federal Funds Rate pronouncements will be brought forth. Plenty of talk about interest rates will be heard in the days ahead and traders should expect to hear debates as the chatter grows louder.

Commodity traders may be interested in the outcome of the OPEC+ meetings taking place this weekend. The cartel’s decisions regarding oil production will affect not only prices of Crude Oil futures, but is a direct reflection regarding global demand, which also tells us about the organization’s viewpoints regarding global economic conditions.

postN7

WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart as of 4th of June 2023

Monday, the 5th of June, European Services PMI – Germany, France and Italy and will release their Purchasing Managers Index readings. The German outcome could prove interesting because the nation is suffering from recessionary pressures. The PMI results could affect the EUR/USD a bit. The U.K will also release their data too.

Monday, the 5th of June, U.S ISM Services PMI – this report will be of interest because some are expecting a better outcome compared to May’s results. A potentially strong reading could prove problematic and put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week.

Tuesday, the 6th of June, Australia RBA Rate Statement – the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised people with an increase of their Cash Rate last month. No increase is expected now, but the RBA’s rhetoric should be listened to as they comment about domestic and global economic conditions.

Wednesday, the 7th of June, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – Bank of Canada is expected to hold its borrowing costs in place, but inflation is still creeping into prices and the BoC’s Rate Statement may prove intriguing.

Thursday, the 8th of June, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – following in the footsteps of the stronger than expected jobs numbers last week, this report could get some media fanfare. However, it also may prove to be a lot of noise and have little real affect on market direction.

Friday, the 9th of June, China CPI and PPI – the inflation reports from China could prove interesting in wake of recent lackluster economic data from the nation. Last Thursday’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI results came in slightly better than expected, but data from China the week before was negative. The data from China gives investors and traders insights because of its importance as a global supplier of consumer products.

post28

Gut Feeling about Fed June Hike, Perhaps Wrong

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Gut Feeling about Fed June Hike, Perhaps Wrong

I have a distinct feeling the U.S Federal Reserve is going to suggest via their FOMC Statement tomorrow that another increase of the Federal Funds Rate is likely going to happen in June. I could definitely be wrong, but my gut instinct is rumbling.

Inflation Remains a Sincere Problem Per the Fed’s Thinking

Wage data demonstrated last Friday via U.S Personal Income that inflation remains stronger than expected. Yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing Prices reading also spiked to 53.2 versus the expectation of only 49.4. The increases shown within these economic reports will not please the Federal Reserve.

While a hike tomorrow is nearly a certainty, the Forex market remains rather unimpressed with the potential for an increase on the 14th of June. Behavioral sentiment has shown a rather polite USD actually losing momentum the past few days. Caution has seeped into the USD today, but are financial institutions too relaxed regarding a potential hike by the Fed in June?

post28

USD/AUD 5 Day Chart as of the 2nd May 2023

Reserve Bank of Australia’s Hike Earlier Today Caught Many Folks Unready

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hike today, may be another sign the U.S Fed will not only hike tomorrow, but in June as well. What are the chances the Federal Reserve hinted strongly to the RBA, that if they wanted to protect the value of the AUD that an increase would be justified in order to guard against the Fed’s rhetoric to come? The Australian hike caught a lot of financial houses and day traders unprepared as the USD/AUD spiked lower this morning, for proof of the surprise simply look at the gap created downward today on the five day chart of the currency pair.

The RBA hiked their Cash Rate by 0.25% from 3.60% to 3.85% while sighting stubborn inflation as a main cause. Nothing is certain, but if the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement is rather strong tomorrow and says it will still consider a June increase perhaps we should not be shocked. Central banks do share information with one another.

Early February’s Rhetoric from the Fed wasn’t Treated Seriously at First Glance

Coincidentally, the Fed’s increase in early February was two days before the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings were reported on the 3rd of February. On the 1st of February the Federal Reserve warned that inflation remained stubborn, but the market didn’t take their words too seriously as the USD traded rather politely following the anticipated interest rate hike.

However, the USD gained violently the day after when Fed officials began to reiterate the strong tone from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell from the day before. And then stronger than expected jobs numbers followed on Friday. Note, that the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings will be published this coming Friday.

The Federal Reserve remains in a difficult position, a hike tomorrow will bring the Federal Funds Rate up to 5.25%, a June hike may not be welcomed by the broad financial markets, particularly equities in the near-term, but people may want to consider the possibility of it happening. Day traders should brace for strong price velocity developing. Tomorrow’s Forex action will be violent for speculators who are not ready, and if the Fed suggests a potential hike to 5.50% in June perhaps we should not be stunned.

post27

Risk Events Pose Danger this Week

by with No Comment Central BanksDataFeatured Highlights

Risk Events Pose Danger this Week

Monday 1st of May, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – weaker than expected Advance GDP results last week make this report of keen interest for investors regarding U.S growth (or recessionary) prospects.

Tuesday 2nd of May, Australia RBA Cash Rate – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the line regarding borrowing.

post27

EUR/USD 1 Month Chart as of 30th April

Wednesday 3rd of May, U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate – U.S central bank expected to raise by another 0.25% making key lending mark 5.25%. This number has been digested into the broad markets, what investors want to know is the Fed’s June outlook. Federal Reserve outlook and FOMC Press Conference will move Forex and equities globally. Traders remains suspicious regarding another hike in June.

Thursday 4th of May, E.U ECB Main Refinancing Rate – European Central Bank expected to hike by another 0.25%. Anything different would be a surprise. ECB Press Conference should be rather tranquil.

Friday 5th of May, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – while jobs numbers are always of interest, it is the earnings statistics which should be watched and will give insight regarding inflation and potential actions about Fed’s June considerations.