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India Insider: Why is Gold Frequently Accumulated by Indians?

India Insider: Why is Gold Frequently Accumulated by Indians?

In a society like India in which I live gold hoarding is a fact of life. According to a recent report by the World Gold Council, Indian households are believed to hold around 25,000 tonnes of gold with a combined value of around $3 trillion USD.

Billionaire banker Uday Kotak applauded Indian women when he said they are ”the smartest fund managers in the world”. The precious metal has gained 42% in 2025 alone, and returned 700% in the last 20 years in Indian Rupee terms. In India consumers have a habit of monitoring daily gold prices. There is a gold festival in India called Aksayatritiyai, when gold is bought frequently in small grams but often also includes large purchases for religious sentiments. In Northern India, gold is bought during festival times like Dhanteras and believed to bring prosperity and good fortune.

It’s almost unthinkable for marriages to occur in India without gold. Many marriages have been postponed and even stopped if the requisite dowry is not given by a girl’s family. And there was a time in India when some families didn’t want to have a baby girl due to the excessive gold dowry they would be responsible for and have to give a boy’s family at the time of marriage. 

Adam Smith’s Case Against Gold:

Smith lashed out at gold for its lack of productiveness. He wrote in the The Wealth of Nations, “labour was the first price, the original purchase-money that was paid for all things. It was not by gold or by silver, but by labour, that all the wealth of the world was originally purchased; and its value, to those who possess it, and who want to exchange it for some few productions, is precisely equal to the quantity of labour which it can enable them to purchase or command.”

The act of hoarding, whether it is money or gold, depresses economic activity, as demonstrated by John Maynard Keynes in his ‘paradox of thrift’. Indeed, it was the Europeans by spending all the precious metals taken from the Americas which boosted economic activity, and ultimately sparked the rise of modern capitalism whereas Asians by hoarding ended up falling behind.

Ancient China Example:

In the past, China’s reliance on silver gave short-term stability but stunted long term growth. With no domestic silver, it depended on inflows from Spain and Japan, making its money supply hostage to global trade. Wars or disruptions cut silver inflows, draining liquidity while crippling tax collection. Unlike Europe, China clung to silver as ‘real’ money, while neglecting credit, banking and bonds. This rigid system weakened the nation’s fiscal capacity, leaving China unable to mobilize resources or industrialize effectively. In the end, silver ensured stability, but strangled flexibility and growth. Indian growth has been strangled too often because of an over-obsession towards gold.

Why Gold Prices are Moving Up?

The price of gold was relatively stable until the 2008 financial crisis and it’s been rising steadily ever since, doubling in 3 years from 2009 to 2012. After some broad consolidation, gold has been in a higher value band if you scrupulously study charts. Arguably, it is an influence due to lower interest rates that have helped gold prices move up for 15 years as inflation has been attempted to be camouflaged by Central Banks.

Accumulation of Central Bank Holding of Gold into 2024

Central Banks also accumulate gold for many reasons. One reason for this are rising bond yields that make existing fiscal obligations underperform for governments. Central Banks buy gold to diversify and hedge against risk. As the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum – an independent body – noted recently, many European national bank systems endure massive losses because of quantitative easing. When the institutions try to undertake quantitative tightening, they are forced to sell at market prices, which deepen their balance sheets losses. Thus, Central Banks diversify into gold as a sacrosanct hedge against losses incurred and allows them to offset many liabilities. Gold has a long historical track record of working as a safeguard against inflation.

It’s also true that gold is often accumulated by Central Banks when hedging against geopolitical uncertainty. The Russia and Ukraine war offers intrigue regarding the nation of Kyrgyzstan, which China uses as a route for its exports to Russia, this due to Kyrgyzstan’s inherent ability to conduct trade via accessible routes. There is high plausibility that Kyrgyzstan might be converting Russian Ruble surpluses into gold.

Monetary Policy Matters for Gold:

Gold will remain vital for many years to come as a store of value and a safe haven. Buying the precious metal delivers investors and businesses a needed hedge against inflation. Protections against the lose of purchasing power within their own fiat currencies remains important for all people.

The Indian public and other societies need to remember, the value of gold within their own currencies often lies within the interest rate valuations sparked by Central Banks mechanisms which sometimes amount to magic shows and influence demand. While public buying of gold is important, it sometimes equates into mere speculation and does not always help economic activity.

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Central Bank Capitulation led by Federal Reserve

Central Bank Capitulation led by Federal Reserve

The 21st and 22nd of September were potentially important signals for traders as the Federal Reserve admitted they remain reactive to inflationary pressures, and other global central banks countered with acts of their own.

While it is difficult and often foolish to believe the markets can be timed, this past Wednesday may have been an important moment for speculators in Forex. Many traders may have veered off into cryptocurrencies or into equities as day traders the past few years, but FX still remains a place that offers volatility and where wagers on price direction can be made.

The Federal Reserve raised their interest rate 0.75% again, and importantly issued a loud admission that the U.S central bank is caught in a reactionary mode. Other global central banks have begun to protect their own currencies too. Jerome Powell, the U.S Federal Reserve Chairman, said he believes the current interest rate is likely at the low end of the spectrum regarding where it has to be to have an affect on current inflationary pressures.

The USD has been strong against many major currencies with a rather unforgiving bullish trend. Raising the Federal Funds rate from 0.25% to 3.25% the past year in the U.S has made short term purchases of U.S debt attractive to many financial institutions. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell made it clear other hikes will be delivered and it is not farfetched to believe the U.S is looking at a potential rate of 4.50% and higher in the spring of 2023. This doesn’t mean the Fed’s policy is correct, it is simply an outlook for the potential Federal Funds Rate based on rhetoric.

  • A Federal Funds Rate in the U.S of 4.00% is likely by early this winter, per the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

  • Global central banks have reacted to the U.S Fed’s recent interest rate hike, by enacting methods to try and safeguard the value of their own domestic currencies.

The USD surged ahead slightly before the rate announcement from the Fed, while many other currencies lost value. However, on Thursday the Bank of Japan intervened by starting to buy Japanese Yen against the USD. The Bank of Japan said it will not raise interest rates yet, but its action showed it clearly does not want the JPY to lose additional value to the USD, via the USD/JPY Forex pair. Whether the BoJ’s actions work mid-term remain to be seen.

Global Central Banks feel they must counter the U.S Federal Reserve’s Actions

Other central banks started to act too. The Bank of England and Swiss central bank both raised interest rates yesterday. Speculators who have been watching the USD dominate Forex the past year, may now have to consider that the last two day’s of action via global central banks is a signal an attitude change has taken place, which may begin to affect Forex long term. Traders need to understand opportunity also means there are risks.

Inflation remains high and governments have reached a point where they have had to admit they will have to risk slowing their economies and potentially suffer recessionary pressures to curb price increases. Many central banks likely feel they have to match the hike increases by the U.S Federal Reserve within their own systems to protect the value of their currencies.

BoJ Intervention on the 22nd of September

End of the Dominant USD Bullish Cycle in Forex?

While Japan for the moment refuses to raise borrowing rates, the BoJ’s buying of JPY effectively signals the USD has become too strong and is starting to hurt the Japanese economy. The the Bank of Japan will be interesting to study long term, to quantify if Japan’s lack of raising rates proves to actually be correct in the current environment.

Philosophical differences and central bank maneuvering is complex and has a long history of debate. Having said that the Bank of Japan has been largely scorned by many other central banks the past three decades for its methods, but while Japan has never recaptured the growth numbers it attained in the 1970’s and 1980’s, the nation remains one of the world’s richest.

The action of the BoJ and other global central banks means that speculators may want begin to look at Forex and tinker with the notion that the bullish trend of a dominant USD may start coming to an end. The cycle has been strong and again, it is difficult to say today is the day. Timing the market is often proven wrong, but the messaging from global central banks that they will start to shadow and react to the U.S Federal Reserve’s actions may mean that they will try to curtail the decreasing values of their own domestic currencies with more robust methods.

Day Traders need to understand a Complex Puzzle is Ahead

Forex markets can produce dramatic changes of value abruptly and cause costly losses to traders who bet wildly. The use of too much leverage and a lack of efficient risk management frequently destroys value quickly. However, now may be the time to contemplate testing Forex with the notion the USD may start to incrementally loss value. A lot has to happen. There are plenty of risk events ahead which could lead to wildly unforeseen results. In other words there are no guarantees.

Global equities led by the U.S indices appear very fragile and if the major stocks loss more value, this could also cause a stronger USD. Why? Because the USD would have to be purchased to buy U.S stocks by foreign investors who want a safe heaven. While it may seem contradictory to think U.S equities would be bought in downturns, this is what has historically happened when global financial institutions seek safe havens and believe other places are too dangerous to invest.

Remember financial institutions are not supposed to be day traders, they are supposed to be long term investment vehicles. Meaning if global equities suffer, even if U.S indices suffer too, the U.S is likely to remain the choice of investment houses as the place to seek shelter if they have to purchase equities as part of their mandates.

Yes, Forex will always be a complex puzzle for short term traders seeking to take advantage of the daily gyrations in the global markets. If a speculator insists on participating with wagers in the market place, they must consider that financial storms are always brewing because trading is seldom easy.