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Forex: Dangerous Triggers Abound for Inexperienced Speculators

Forex: Dangerous Triggers Abound for Inexperienced Speculators

While the U.S jobs reports via the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings will grab attention today, and the Advance GDP this Wednesday and inflation numbers yesterday were important. Institutional trading focus in many respects will be elsewhere, behavioral sentiment and the potential reactions that lurk after the results from the U.S election are known are the biggest risk threat.

USD/SGD Three Month Chart as of 1st November 2024

Yesterday’s weaker than expected Employment Cost Index will help the U.S Federal Reserve to clip another 0.25% off of the Federal Funds Rate on the 7th of November. However, the winner of the U.S Presidency will be a talking point in the coming FOMC meeting, and also the halls of the U.S Treasury, influencing potential policies. Weaker than expected jobs numbers would fuel dovish perspectives from financial institutions today, but because of the coming U.S election on Tuesday results will fall on ears possibly tuned into other frequencies. And let’s remember last month’s job numbers were stronger than expected, and revisions downward in the back months remains a problem causing mixed sentiment.

Major currencies versus the USD continue to thread within cautious weaker values. USD centric strength has been persistent since the last week of September. If this had been a normal week of trading, the USD would have likely gotten weaker after the Advance GDP results came in slightly less than anticipated. Fuel might have been added to USD selling on yesterday’s lower than expected labor costs too, but this did not happen in many cases. This needs to be a consideration for day traders who are trying to interpret U.S economic data as the U.S election looms. Simply put, behavioral sentiment in the near-term is being more influenced by the race for the White House.

If a trader wants to bet on who they think the winner of the U.S vote will be they need to be careful too, not only because they could be wrong, but if their ‘winner’ takes the presidency, reactions may be more tumultuous than planned. Speculators need to understand that financial institutions too have likely been positioning their cash forward transactions based on who they think is going to win the U.S vote. Meaning wicked reversals and take profit orders could be triggered when the U.S election outcome is known. Forex trading volumes next week should be immense.

Gold Three Month Chart as of 1st November 2024

It is a dangerous time for inexperienced traders to participate in Forex. Brokers will certainly sell this alluring show and point out that there is a lot of opportunity to make money in the coming days, but the opposite is true too. Because if you can make a lot of money from volatility, you can also lose a lot of money. Folks without deep pockets who are using leverage will be vulnerable to price velocity.

Retail traders need to understand the risks that confront them are dangerous because their Forex positions cannot be held over a long-term because of too much carrying costs, too much volatility and frequently too much leverage. Large financial institutions who are the shakers in Forex play by a completely different set of rules. It may help a day trader immensely to understand they can really only feast on profits when they have been able to ride the technical momentum caused by the influence of financial institutions.

The cyclical nature of Forex has been on full display the past three months. Trading within the USD/SGD the past three months is a solid example of a major currency teamed against the USD and sustaining a strong bearish cycle on the expectation the U.S Fed would become dovish, and then the reversal higher since late September as financial institutions started to become risk adverse. While some analysts may argue this point, the coming results in the weeks ahead will tell us a lot as large players react to clarity via a new U.S President and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Traders large and small over the next five days in Forex will be treated to quite a carnival like experience.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Complexities for the 14th of June

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Complexities for the 14th of June

10. International Tech Research: Universities and institutions around the world are developing innovative systems to deliver a quantum future. Cal-Berkeley, MIT, Cambridge, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, the Institut Polytechnique de Paris, and the Cleveland Clinic are only a few of the places in the ‘West’ that investors should monitor for developments, Asia is also very focused on high speed computing.

9. Musk Schedule: The tech mogul has had a busy week. His Tesla stock option compensation package was approved by shareholders yesterday. In 2018 Musk negotiated a package with Tesla that included a massive compensation agreement via stock options if he met valuation targets over a 10 year period. He achieved the valuation goals within only a few years. Musk also formally dropped his lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman in recent days, this after the enterprise released emails showing Musk backed OpenAI’s pursuit of profits in the past. Around 2015 Musk invested about 45 million USD into OpenAI.

8. Muted Data: The U.S Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers will be released today via the University of Michigan. However these numbers are likely not going to impact financial assets in the U.S. The Fed and CPI results from the States published this past Wednesday will dominate the investing narrative. Searching for meaning regarding why assets move in a particular direction is the media’s job, but perceived realities always remain open to complex interpretations as real time prices are exhibited. Day traders need to be cautious of revisionist history.

7. Petrol Dollar: Saudi Arabia has not reconfirmed its commitment to transact Crude Oil exports with USD. The formal agreement reached in 1974 has expired. Forex traders should not panic about this development yet. Speculators should note that Saudi Arabia is likely to still demand most of their payments in USD since they can count on the valuation of the currency to remain relatively tranquil compared to other instruments like China’s Yuan. What the absence of an agreement between the U.S and Saudi Arabia does indicate unfortunately, is that U.S foreign policy continues to look vulnerable.

6. Optimism: A South Africa government coalition agreement could be formalized soon and create a better economic outlook for the nation. While geo-political concerns remain, and the ANC is not a 100% friendly philosophical match with the Democratic Alliance and some of the other political parties which will be involved, it appears a working agreement can be reached. The question in South Africa is if transparent fiscal and anti-corruption mandates can be accomplished while diverse political outlooks will be heard and demanded from different factions. For the moment, financial institutions seem to like what they are hearing and the USD/ZAR has edged lower in the past week.

5. Highly Valued: Gold is over 2300.00, BTC/USD is near 67,000, and Cocoa is within sight of 11,000. Speculative large players remain active, and traders looking to take advantage of short and near-term fluctuations in these commodities need to remain vigilant. Cocoa, while extremely dangerous to trade, has outperformed gold and Bitcoin recently. Investors in gold think long-term, and Bitcoin influencers preach ‘hold on for dear life’ as non-believers shake their heads in disagreement. However, daily gyrations influenced by large players can still wreck havoc on those looking for short-term wagering opportunities.

4. Zombie Fed: Cautiously optimistic undertones were served from Jerome Powell as expected this past Wednesday, but intriguingly Powell admitted some government data remains open for interpretation, particularly the suspiciously strong headline jobs numbers which are being questioned. The Fed now says its outlook is for one interest rate cut this year. Financial institutions likely believe the Fed remains too reactive. The U.S GDP has shown signs of struggling, and CPI numbers have begun to erode. Crude Oil prices remain under 80.00 USD. However, the Fed seems intent on still pumping the brakes in order to kill off inflation via the high Federal Funds Rate. It would help if the U.S govt stopped spending cash recklessly, and the U.S Treasury stopped printing money.

3. Equities: U.S political concerns as the election approaches will create more analysis paralysis than normal. Short-term behavioral sentiment may sound nervous, but a bullish trend and risk appetite remain evident. Day traders may be able to take advantage of technical trading via support and resistance in CFDs, but fundamentally financial institutions appear inclined to count on equity indices achieving record highs.

2. 157.000 – 158.000: Today’s BoJ decision to remain stuck in the mud has created more financial institutional dismay in some quarters, and the the Japanese Yen will be punished occasionally against the USD. But the folks at the BoJ are not stupid and likely anticipated the USD/JPY move higher which ensued. The BoJ is obviously preserving its ‘soft devaluation’ of the JPY in order to maintain an export advantage for the U.S and European consumer markets. The question is if and when the BoJ will buy billions worth of JPY in order to punish bullish USD/JPY Forex speculators occasionally.

1. Volatile Near-Term: EUR/USD and GBP/USD price action has been boiling. France and the U.K have crucial elections in the coming weeks, after policies in both nations have led to a lack of confidence in the ruling governments. The ruckus outcome from the E.U Parliament voting have created an intriguing complication. Oddly enough, the U.K may be the left’s torch bearer in the coming year, while other European nations drift towards the right. Can centrists create a middle ground? Volatility and the search for equilibrium via financial institutions may create a lot of opportunities for Forex day traders in the coming weeks in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD as reversals and trends are sought.

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Friday’s Forex Violence and Coming Attractions for Traders

Friday's Forex Violence and Coming Attractions for Traders

While the past month has continued to produce positive trends upwards for traders speculating on equities via U.S indices with record breaking values, Forex has been rather brutal for many day traders if they have remained stubborn.

Short-term trading conditions in Forex again proved violent this past Friday, as the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports came in stronger than anticipated and set off fireworks in the major currency pairs.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered a clue to speculators paying attention last Wednesday, during the Fed’s Press Conference in which he spoke about the tight labor market. It seems likely the Federal Reserve knew the jobs data was going to be rather robust and hinted.

The Federal Reserve did continue to speak about interest rate cuts, but they certainly have not given an exact timetable when more dovish policy will begin. This has left many speculators, corporations and financial institutions nervous and the results via choppy trading conditions the past handful of weeks are proof.

USD strength the past month has caused headaches for many Forex speculators, but it needs to be said that many major currency pairs are lingering near values post-December 13th 2023, this was when the Federal Reserve made it ‘official’ that a more dovish monetary policy would develop in 2024.

Early wagers by financial institutions in December indicated they believed a March Federal Funds Rate cut would be seen, but after last Wednesday’s Fed’s FOMC Statement and Friday’s jobs numbers it seems more likely for the moment a May interest rate cut could be a legitimate target.

WTI Crude Oil Three Month Chart as of 5th February 2024

Risks do Abound and Speculators Should Remain Cautious Near-Term

Inflation concerns via knock-on affects from logistical complications via Red Sea chaos which disrupts the Suez Canal shipping is a legitimate threat and needs to be monitored. However, the price of WTI Crude Oil traded in a remarkably stable manner last week as noise was heard from the Middle East. In early price action this morning the commodity has been polite and remains within sight of 72.00 USD per barrel. The lack of a nervous reaction in Crude Oil thus far could keep global investors calm.

This week will be limited regarding important economic data. However, there will be plenty of rhetoric offered by U.S Federal Reserve members in the coming days via conferences and interviews. Forex traders have needed to combat an array of reversals as price equilibrium has created rather tenacious price realms and this may continue near-term.

There are time periods when traders should be willing to accept that methods regarding short-term trading tactics need to be adjusted. January has shown that financial institutions were of the mindset the USD had gotten too strong. And although it appears financial institutions continue to lean towards a weaker USD outlook in the mid-term (as proven by lower moves in the USD leading up to the jobs report on Friday), the surprisingly good jobs data certainly caused the USD to bounce upwards.

Technical considerations of the USD at this moment are important, fundamental data is still coming in rather mixed, this as financial houses wait on central banks to start reacting with interest rate cuts due to lackluster economic data. It is important to note that some analysts have started to murmur the ECB and BoE may have to move first regarding interest rate cuts – if they have the courage to take this action sooner rather than later. The U.S economy has remained rather strong regarding consumer sentiment and this is causing angst among Fed observers. The U.S jobs numbers on Friday highlighted this nervousness.

Monday, 5th of February, U.S Services PMI via ISM – an outcome of 52.0 is the expected reading, which would be higher than the previous result of 50.6. If the Services number meets its estimate and doesn’t exceed the expectation, this would calm nervous financial institutions which may believe the U.S economy may be too strong for the Federal Reserve’s liking, and cause some hawkisk sentiment regarding monetary policy to linger. A weaker number from the Services PMI could help the USD selloff slightly, a stronger outcome could result in more USD buying short-term.

Tuesday, 6th of February, Australia Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Statement via RBA – no major changes are expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Global central banks have taken a wait and see approach as they likely remain nervous regarding the potential of inflation to remain stubborn in the mid-term. The RBA is probably going to follow the ECB, BoE and Fed’s stances from last week and remain conservative.

EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 5th February 2024

Wednesday, 7th of February, Germany Industrial Production – though this report is not viewed as a major economic event for traders the results should be watched. The EUR/USD has been hit by rather volatile conditions as financial institutions try to anticipate central bank moves. If the German data comes in weaker than expected (a minus -0.4% result is anticipated) this could make the EUR/USD slightly more bearish.

Shanghai Composite Index One Year Chart as of 5th February 2024

Thursday, 8th of February, China CPI and PPI – economic data from China has not improved and foreign investors are not showing an appetite for risk. Deflation remains a concern in China, and although the official government rhetoric promised sunnier days ahead, fundamentals in real estate, manufacturing and consumer driven data offers troubled prospects. The Consumer Price Index from China is anticipated to be worse than the previous month’s outcome. The downturn in the SSE (Shanghai Composite Index) is now challenging the 2,700.00 vicinity.

Friday, 9th of February, Canada Employment Change – Canadian economic data has been lackluster and analysts have been quite critical of government policy. Having said this the USD/CAD is largely going to stay in a USD centric mode going into the weekend.

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Anonymous Kingdom: Bitcoin’s Lack of Transparency is Supreme

Anonymous Kingdom: Bitcoin's Lack of Transparency is Supreme

Bitcoin has fallen below the 40,000.00 USD price level today, and after penetrating the depth of 39,500.00 USD has shown additional velocity lower. Bitcoin is now testing support near the 38,850.00 ratio, a value it last tested on the 2nd of December.

Influencers will likely urge their fanbases to look at six-month charts to understand Bitcoin is still within the upper levels of its price range, this because a look at a three-month chart isn’t as cheerful. The speculative asset remains a dangerous place for day traders to participate who do not have legitimate insights regarding Bitcoin.

BTC/USD Six Month Chart as of 23rd January 2024

The question that some are likely starting to ask is what happened to the bullish rush in Bitcoin that was evangelized as a source of inspiration when the U.S Bitcoin ETFs materialized? FOMO (fear of missing out) again became an ‘advert’ for Bitcoin. True patience is needed when investing in financial assets, but day traders aren’t investing they are speculating and BTC/USD is likely costing them plenty of money.

It has been publicized that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF now holds over 1 billion USD in funds. However, while BlackRock and other ETFs have added to their assets under management of Bitcoin, what are short positions within the ETFs regarding size? This number is elusive, but the ability to sell ETF ‘share’ value within the new Bitcoin funds being offered is said to exist.

Bitcoin’s open interest numbers within the CME’s future contracts was nearly 26,669 positions on the 11th of January, yesterday’s reporting via the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was 22,250 open positions. While day traders may be speculating on the price of BTC/USD via their brokers’ trading platforms, they have to understand that their wagers are not affecting the real market price. The big players within the Bitcoin market do not operate on brokerage platforms which are merely offering CFD positions. The large traders are using cryptocurrency exchanges, futures and options via the CME, and now ETF positions.

Unless a trader is actively selling Bitcoin on a selected cryptocurrency exchange – and likely being asked to open a margin account – and thus opening the door to leverage and volatility, which it can be argued is designed to knock you out of the positions. You are going to find it difficult to actually sell ‘physical’ Bitcoin via short positions that are ‘manipulating’ the cash/spot market.

Bitcoin is a playground for sophisticated traders with plenty of cash to speculate and will continue to produce a world of extreme price volatility. On the 11th of January the price of Bitcoin jumped towards the 49,000.00 mark before declining. Bitcoin’s high early this morning was around the 40,150.00 ratio before stumbling the past handful of hours. Note, that open interest was at its highest on the 11th of January via CME futures trading information.

If you want to speculate (bet) on the value of Bitcoin as a day trader you should understand that you are participating in a marketplace that still doesn’t have the best of transparency. Yes, in most assets day traders are always competing against complex dynamics in which they have no control. However, speculating on BTC/USD is still being done almost blindfolded because of the lack of insights that is part of Bitcoin’s anonymous allure that many of its proponents love. We are still a distance away from transparency within the world of Bitcoin.

If traders can get access to volumes data – and the size of long and short positions being placed within the crypto exchanges they are using that helps. But because Bitcoin trading is still unregulated, and since there are many crypto exchanges operating you will only be getting small bits of information. The lack of information should worry day traders and serve as a caution sign.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Flakes for 19th of January 2024

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Flakes for 19th of January 2024

10. Music: Come On, Come Over performed by Jaco Pastorius. The bass playing on this song is magnificent.

9. Cybersecurity: Prospect of quantum computing is making Central Banks nervous, quantum development will impact blockchain and make current payment systems vulnerable and perhaps obsolete. Post-quantum cryptography development is vital.

8. Frigid Weather: Tesla owners have dealt with battery power failures as winter temperatures have plummeted in Chicagoland and elsewhere. EV energy solutions need to improve.

7. China: Over the past 11 months FDI (foreign direct investment) has dropped more than 10% in the nation, an estimated short fall of 145.51 billion USD. China’s Foreign Direct Investment release has seemingly been pushed off to next week. Shanghai Composite (SSE) near 2832.28.

6. Energy Sector: WTI Crude Oil still priced politely as ‘interactions’ with Houthis flare. Natural Gas values remain near lows while North America suffers from a deep freeze.

5. Risk Assessment: Iran and Pakistan, although expressing ‘brotherly love’ for each other, have exchanged missiles across their respective border aimed at extremists.

4. U.S Treasuries: Inversion has almost ended completely, 5-Year Notes up to 30-Year Bonds yields have returned to ‘norms’.

3. Gold: Price of the precious metal near 2027.00 USD having bounced higher after challenging the 2000.00 vicinity on Wednesday.

2. Data: Consumer Sentiment reading via University of Michigan on the schedule today, this could provide impetus to markets that appear to be waiting for the next big push.

1. FX Volatility: USD strength has pushed the greenback towards important mid-term resistance in Forex as many day traders are likely still fighting the trend.

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Leverage and the Holidays Often Leads to Costly Volatility

Leverage and the Holidays Often Leads to Costly Volatility

This may seem like an unfriendly reminder for this time of year, but holiday trading can lead to dangerous storms for traders. Keeping a realistic viewpoint regarding your ambitions during Christmas and New Year’s is important.

Most day traders cannot afford to have an outlook that is beyond the short and near-term. This is an ugly fact many speculators with less than deep pockets have to acknowledge if they are new to speculating. While large traders and financial institutions can maintain mid and long-term outlooks, day traders who do not have the funds to keep overnight positions need to operate in an entirely different fashion.

Trends via technical charts and fundamentals are crucial for all traders. Behavioral sentiment is a key ingredient too for all participants chasing assets. However, day traders also need to understand unique risk management limitations. The use of leverage is a vital dynamic, and can cause devastation fast when too much money has been wagered. The use of leverage by day traders effectively raises the probability that a trade will lose money.

Incremental changes in value to a Forex pair, commodity and equity share being traded on a brokers platform by a speculator using ‘borrowed’ money via an account that allows for margin often leads to quick outcomes that fail. Many brokers offer traders ‘polite’ leverage ranging from 10% to 100% in extra funds, this while enticing the speculator to the potential of profiting in a quicker and more robust manner. It should also be noted that when a broker is offering vast amounts of leverage, they are knowingly increasing a traders likelihood of losing. The use of leverage beyond 10% leads to plenty of expensive mistakes.

Unfortunately, the simple truth is if you can make fast money trading, you can lose fast money while trading. The use of the word speculating is simply a gentle way of not using the word ‘gambling’.

Traders tempted to pursue wagers during the next couple of weeks should remember a lack of normal volumes make many asset classes more volatile, meaning the use of leverage by speculators often leads to dangerous gyrations within their accounts.

Risk appetite has taken on a optimistic tone globally because of the upside U.S equity markets have been producing, while U.S Treasury yields are decreasing, but dangers still lurk. Day traders need to remain realistic regarding their pursuit of quick hitting trades during the holiday season, and make sure they use solid tactics while pursuing their outlooks. The trend may appear to be your friend, but short-term reversals in the wrong direction can cost money.

No one wishes for bad things, but speculators should also note that if risk adverse events occur during the holidays, that ‘negative news’ can often become amplified this time of year and cause more volatility. Speculative positions in Forex, Crude Oil and gold can produce rather wild results, and thin trading volumes can add to the swift changes in values.

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Behavioral Sentiment: Sports and Trading a Key Correlation

Behavioral Sentiment: Sports and Trading a Key Correlation

In order to be an effective day trader a speculator needs to be able to control their emotions. A person can have years of market knowledge, the best schooling, read the world’s greatest books, be able to quote the leading financial experts and still be a bad trader. While it is important to understand the complexities being generated via technical and fundamentals and the power of behavioral sentiment, again it doesn’t guarentee you profits.

CBOE VIX Index six month chart as of 17th November 2023

When a day trader initiates pursuit of position, long or short, they can even be right about the eventual direction and still lose their money when the trade is complete. The missing link for many speculators while trading is their inability to control their emotions.

Many sports fans know that there are teams that have some of the highest paid athletes, but frequently have lackluster results because the team is not able to handle the bright lights of the stadium, they let crowds affect them. Some teams simply prove over time they are not prepared to really compete in the most important games; trading results frequently are similar when a speculator is not ready for the financial market they want to compete within.

Unless a market participant can handle their anxiousness, nervousness, frustration, assaults from value gyrations (reversals of price), doubts and the noise of the crowd (news being generated from the media that is mere hyberbole) and other challenges that can affect their emotional state – a trader is unlikely to have success.

Sports and trading are very similar sometimes. Professional athletic competitions between the world’s best are often a contest of ‘wills’. In many sports the top athletes are almost equally matched regarding their physical ability. In trading many speculators have the same perspectives regarding potential market directions, yet they produce different outcomes.

The difference maker in sports and trading when it comes to positive results – winning, is the ability to control their emotional state. Remaining calm and focused, knowing the goal and tasks that must be accomplished to achieve victory in sports and trading is often the result of keeping tranquil psychologically in the middle of battle.

You can have all the necessary trading skills needed to pursue a position within Forex, equity indices, commodities via the cash market, CFDs and futures, but if you do not have control of your emotions you are likely to lose.

Day traders also need to understand that one day of results, winning or losing, does not mean anything regarding future prospects. Like the best athletes, traders need to enter every trade as if it is a new game. Discipline, tactical objectives are important in trading. Being able to walk away from a losing position and leaving enough in your account to pursue the markets, for the next time you feel there is a potentially profitable objective that is attractive is also important.

You must know yourself to be a good trader, you must understand your own emotions and work on weaknesses. The ability to be profitable over a long time is not as simple as merely entering your online trading platform and opening a position which has been recommended or that you think is a winner.

It is one thing to understand the positive movement of a potential trade, but you must be ready for the negative possibilities when a trade is not going your way and the ability to navigate through the storm. Is your stop loss in place? Does the amount of leverage you are using allow you to walk away from a losing trade and still have enough ammunition (money) for other trades? Can you handle the volatility that is likely to ensue in potentially choppy conditions?

You need a solid gameplan. One of the greatest risks a trader is confronted by is their lack of emotional fortitude. Successful speculators embrace their trading positions because they are attractive, but they also manage their expectations and have a plan of attack in place before they enter every trade. Good traders can block out the noise of the crowd and enjoy the competitive nature of battling the financial markets.

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USD/INR: Higher Move Correlates and Political Shadows Loom

USD/INR: Higher Move Correlates and Political Shadows Loom

The USD/INR is near the 82.8150 ratio as of this writing the 9th of August, on the 25th of July the currency pair was near the 81.6500 level momentarily. Upwards movement of the USD/INR did produce price volatility in the last week of July, and on the 1st of August the Forex pair was near the 82.1700 ratio. Another dose of upwards momentum quickly occurred on the first day of August, and by the 2nd the USD/INR was trading around the 82.7650 mark.

From Wednesday of last week the USD/INR has essentially taken on a consolidated framework, speculators who are gambling on the USD/INR and need big movement to occur in order to facilitate profits have likely found the currency pair difficult to manage. Yesterday a high of nearly 82.9500 came within sight briefly, this as global risk adverse conditions arose because of the Moody’s rating agency downgrade of some U.S mid and small size banks regarding their fundamental ‘soundness’ and credit worthiness.

Rising interest rates from the U.S Federal Reserve have made it harder for many U.S banks to conduct their business, and loans have become more expensive for their clients struggling to keep up with the rising payments. Particularly if borrowers have the unfortunate position of holding ‘variable’ loans which cost more when interest rates are going up. This has also affected the housing sector in the U.S and in the U.K, as mortgages have become highly priced due to the Federal Reserve and Bank of England having aggressive interest rate policies which are affecting the cost of new home purchases.

The question USD/INR traders may be asking is what does this have to do with them?

USD/INR One Month Chart as of 9th of August

The USD/INR Doesn’t Trade in a Vacuum

The USD/INR has risen in value the past two and half weeks as many other major currency pairs have suffered a similar fate. Nervous sentiment abounds in the global markets because financial institutions are wary of what the major central banks will do next. U.S economic data has been mixed recently, but this perspective depends on time frames regarding outlooks.

Short and mid-term viewpoints continue to point to complications regarding growth and inflation expectations and interpretations of U.S data. The ratings downgrade of some U.S banks from Moody’s yesterday, and early last week Fitch’s downgrade of U.S Treasuries all is related. Rating agencies are getting nervous, perhaps because they do not want to be blamed and held liable if the proverbial ‘fluff’ hits the fan over the mid-term. Rating agencies largely ‘missed’ the financial crisis of 2007 in a famously bizarre manner. The sudden emergence of rating agencies warning investors has made the USD stronger as global investors have become risk adverse temporarily. Yes, this might feel illogical, but the USD remains the world’s safe haven.

The USD/INR also certainly trades because of economic conditions affecting its value from within India. The Reserve Bank of India has a large hand in managing values and is known to be rather active regarding interventions. Yet the USD/INR is being ‘allowed’ to continue to trade near all-time highs. This as India’s status as a growing economic power has taken shape in the global financial markets the past year. The India government has not been aggressive regarding its interest rate policy, and has allowed inflation to seep into the domestic economy via a weaker Indian Rupee for a number of complex reasons. Purchasing goods from India abroad and the ability to invest in India by global financial institutions may be more attractive to those holding USD and needing to convert into INR only when the time is necessary.

Politics and the USD/INR Price Level as 2024 Elections Start to Lurk

From a political perspective too, let’s acknowledge a general election will take place in India in April and May of 2024. Economic decisions being made today and for the mid-term are certainly being affected by the ruling Indian government’s outlook and desire to remain in power. Having come off of yesterday’s highs in the USD/INR the currency pair does remain within sight of highs.

The 83.0000 level likely remains a key barometer for the USD/INR and the Reserve Bank of India is likely watching this value carefully. While it seems unlikely the India government wants the USD/INR to trace much higher because of the psychological implications, global risk adverse sentiment are making the higher values of the currency pair sticky. Tomorrow’s inflation data from the U.S will affect Forex and the USD/INR via the Consumer Price Index. Friday the U.S Producer Price Index will be published. A slight rise in the broad CPI results tomorrow is expected, while Friday’s PPI outcome is expected to match last month’s numbers.

If risk adverse trading remains evident today and the USD/INR holds its ground over the next 20 hours, the currency pair could find that its consolidated price movement from the past week suddenly changes. A higher tick in U.S inflation could be enough to cause the USD/INR to challenge the 83.0000 ratio. Speculators who are wagering on the USD/INR are cautioned to be pro-active regarding their risk management the remainder of this week.