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Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Thud Ending Last Week and Early August Insights

The EUR/USD is near 1.15650 early this morning. The USD/JPY around 147.850. Forex has provided fast reversals and most major currency pairs are within well established known realms, but caution prevails. Friday’s U.S jobs numbers before going into weekend provided additional mud to filter through for those seeking clear outlooks. Were the employment numbers rigged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

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EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 4th August 2025

Questionable economic statistics have become an open sore spot for some analysts in the U.S, this has been a problem since the financial crisis of 2007/08 and ensuing years when politically expedient numbers were rumored to be in use so the Federal Reserve and U.S Treasury could work in a more comfortable manner. Let’s just say there are actual reasons why and how economic statistics could be used to hurt and help policies. For some evidence take a look at the art of revisions that has been practiced with key economic data the past handful of years. Financial institutions now need to consider the possibility that numbers cannot be trusted, interpret reports, try to decipher reality and consider impact.

Effect on the Federal Reserve is a big question. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continues to preach uncertainty and say a wait and see approach is needed because of implications regarding tariffs. However, conspiracy theories are also somewhat blown out of the water regarding the recent jobs numbers, because the lackluster results will actually put pressure on the Fed to cut rates in September in order to help spur on a better jobs market. So in other words, financial institutions, big investors and day traders are back to square one.

The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index stats will be published tomorrow for the U.S, but this report is likely to be a mere ingredient that affects the marketplace. Behavioral sentiment will remain the cornerstone in Forex, equity indices, Treasuries and commodities. August is typically a rather calm month of trading taking into consideration that holidays are being taken by many market participants, but as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Dow 30 remain elevated and capable of achieving new record highs, the USD creates chaos regarding outlook influenced by a Federal Reserve that is now in a difficult spot, and tariff implications are contemplated it would be wise to keep an eye on all near-term outcomes.

Technical trading and computer generated algos will factor into conditions as psychological levels are challenged and perceptions are debated. Has the global marketplace grown comfortable to the tactics used by President Trump? While it is easy to say yes, there are still plenty of reasons to remain concerned, this because White House policy seemingly has the ability to shift without notice.

Which has helped produce what may be the golden rule that develops under the current circumstances. Stay alert, stay optimistic but practice caution. Financial institutions have always practiced the art of realpolitik behind closed doors to chase profits, but they must remain vigilant to fast reactions caused from the potential sudden fear of shifting doctrine. President Trump’s rather swirling mix of laissez faire enterprise, and his stark ability to express anger at those who stand in his way or disagree with him do make for a new trading reality. Cautious optimism is likely to rule the world of investment and speculation going forward.

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India Insider: Booming GDP & Fragile Foundations of Growth

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Booming GDP & Fragile Foundations of Growth

India’s economic footprint on the global stage is expanding significantly each year. As the world’s largest democracy, the nation achieved a remarkable 7.4% GDP growth rate January to March of this fiscal year. Yet, beneath this impressive headline, job creation remains tepid, overshadowed by slowing foreign direct investments (FDI) and lower corporate investments from India’s domestic market.

Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiative to attract manufacturing into India and boost jobs, the manufacturing share of GDP has stubbornly clung to 16% for the last decade. While India’s services sector accounts around 55% of GDP, the IT and allied services sectors contributes a mere 3-4% of total employment. Even after the last two decades in which India’s Asian neighbors have shifted labor force out of agriculture and into high scale manufacturing, 45% of India’s workforce still are employed in agriculture and aligned services constituting only 15-17% of GDP.

Speculative Capital, Excessive Credit and Rising Financial Risk

Between 2003 and 2023, India attracted approximately $275 Billion USD from foreign capital inflows, encompassing mostly equity and debt foreign portfolio investments. These capital injections are speculative in nature, primarily chasing returns in financial markets, rather than being directly invested into long-term productive infrastructure like manufacturing and export oriented industries.

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Foreign Portfolio Investment into India 2003 to 2023

Interestingly, India’s public sector banks especially between 2008 and 2015 aggressively lent to infrastructure, real estate and capital intensive projects. The state owned banks tried to fill the gap left behind by private investors. A substantial share of these loans later turned into non-performing loans, exacerbating a duel crisis as corporate and bank balance sheets came under severe stress within a few years. The government of India stepped in and injected 3.1 lakh crore Rupees ($45 Billion USD) to recapitalize the struggling banks, and also orchestrated mergers of weaker banks with stronger banks. India’s citizens helped cover these costs via higher taxes and hidden banking charges.

Reserve Bank of India: FX Reserves and Liquidity Dynamics 

As of financial year 2025, the RBI’S Foreign Exchange Reserves stand at around $696 billion USD. While a stronger reserve buffer is crucial for maintaining external stability, the Reserve Bank of India’s purchase of foreign currency to build reserves leads to problems with domestic Rupee liquidity and creates liabilities for the RBI’s balance sheet. Unless it’s not fully absorbed via Open Market operations, it will end up as excess liquidity in the banking system.

Post 2020 and the Covid19 pandemic, loose monetary policy and excess liquidity within the banking system has culminated with more reckless lending. Unsecured retail credit particularly in personal loans, credit cards and consumer finance is troubling. Non-banking financial companies (shadow banking) and fintech enterprises also expanded rapidly into this segment and now pose risks.

India Falling into Debt Trap 

Per a recent survey conducted by the RBI,  household financial savings have sharply declined to a five decade low of 5.1% of GDP in FY2023, down from 11.5% in 2021. Concurrently, household liabilities have risen, particularly in the unsecured credit segment.

Delinquencies in small ticket personal loans and “Buy Now, Pay Later“ programs are on the rise, prompting the RBI to intervene recently with tightening of personal loan norms in late 2023. This dynamic suggests that excessive credit creation, unaccompanied by productive or real income growth, is fueling a fragile boom in consumption backed predominately by debt especially among middle and lower income groups.

Lower Net Foreign Direct Investment amid Higher Repatriation

Even with coordinated efforts from the likes of Apple, Foxconn (Hon Hai Technology Group) and other electronics companies setting up facilities, and the assembly of manufactured goods like iPhones as part of the “China Plus“ strategy, a more comprehensive method of doing business and improved proactive FDI policy is needed. Overall results are still falling short. Evidence shows many companies continue to choose Vietnam and Mexico over India, which is clearly reflected in the lower net FDI figures in India’s Balance of Payments. In financial year 2024-25, net FDI fell 96% to $353 million USD, caused by a surge of money being repatriated out of India led by foreign companies, and also increased foreign investments by Indian companies to other nations, per the Hindu magazine.

The irony is that India needs foreign capital to finance its current accounts deficit, long-term capital investment would boost jobs and increase wages. As the central Indian government practices an austerity drive and its corporations show an unwillingness to invest, India needs higher foreign capital at this crucial juncture. How will India achieve this task? Without better employment and raising wages, India’s celebrated growth faces risks from underlying cracks.

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Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

Everyone wants to know what will happen in the future in the financial world. Most everyone also knows that this is impossible. However, clarity about the mid-term is a legitimate focal point that financial institutions strive. Risk managers define their considerations on assorted perspectives depending on their backgrounds.

While some may like him and others clearly are are not fans, President Trump has a reputation for wanting to get things done. His calling card for a long time has been an ability to make business deals. President Trump however has put himself in a rather difficult position and the next two weeks may prove to be an important milestone. One in which those who like the President and those who don’t will be given more credence to debate.

The Federal Reserve will announce their FOMC decision on the 30th of July. Tariff deadlines will supposedly come on the 1st of August. President Trump has made it clear he does not like the lack of aggressiveness which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is displaying. Trump has called for the Federal Funds Rate to be cut and Powell has not acquiesced.

President Trump has openly spoken about trying to replace the Fed Chairman, but at this juncture the Trump White House knows this will be difficult unless they can prove Jerome Powell has done something maliciously. Not lowering the Federal Funds Rate because of a fear inflation will develop because of potential effects due to tariff fallout is a legitimate reason not to act. Even if the Fed Chairman is wrong, he appears to still be working on a basis which is based on an economic interpretation.

For the next two weeks the broad markets will hear about the Trump and Powell disagreement. It has been argued the Federal Reserve should have lowered the Federal Funds Rate a few months ago, clearly this was not done. However, the USD did trade with weaker sentiment in Forex from early April until the beginning of July. In the past few weeks the USD has garnered some strength, but remains within the lower part of its long-term realms via the U.S Dollar Cash Index. The weakness in the USD was likely due to financial institutions betting on rate cuts to come over the mid and long-term, and which they still believe will happen.

The upwards momentum generated recently by the USD has put the greenback in a position that seems to indicate financial institutions are transacting their cash forward orders cautiously for the moment, while waiting on the next round of impetus. And that is where Federal Reserve clarity and tariff threats now shadow mid-term outlooks.

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U.S Dollar Cash Index Five Year Chart as of 21st July 2025

We have entered an unpredictable window and President Trump apparently doesn’t mind allowing a little danger into the mindsets of the financial markets. It is one thing to proclaim tremendous results and great, magnificent prospects, but how long will investors tolerate a lack of clarity regarding tariff agreements? President Trump has postponed the tariff deadlines several times and what should be considered is the potential that at some point he will have to take action to prove he means business. If the August 1st deadline is extended again this may not cause much of a shock, but it will not be met with optimism.

Instead, the main interpretation from financial institutions may be that Trump is struggling to get agreements done as he had promised. While that might lead to the idea that global commerce will continue on as is, this will certainly not help create the positive impetus which President Trump desired. At some juncture President Trump may begin to be perceived as the little boy that cried wolf. No one will pay attention and the markets will proceed without him. But President Trump will not likely let that happen, he does like attention.

The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 are near record highs, so there isn’t a lot to complain about by index investors. The U.S economy has shown signs of green shoots regarding better retail sales and the recent Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The grey area for many remains inflation, which has been coming in rather well behaved although the most recent report showed a slightly higher outcome with the yearly CPI reading. However, the Federal Reserve actually has evidence that inflation has been tame. Yes, there are questions regarding the coming influence of tariffs on the U.S economy, but for the moment inflation has not risen.

The lack of clarity and not having a mid-term comfort level which is unperturbed may be problematic for small U.S business owners that face tariff concerns on their imported goods. And the bigger picture remains unclear for large U.S corporations – but they certainly continue to try being optimistic. And this is where it gets more dangerous, plenty of perspectives are being driven (inspired) by analysts who have confirmation bias. For instance the downturn in the USD from April until early July was amplified by many who saw this as a sign the USD was being punished by foreign governments opposed to President Trump. This in fact was highly unlikely, traders need to remain alert to false narratives.

The next two weeks need to be treated carefully. There will be a running monologue among many analysts that changes daily as behavioral sentiment moves depending on what is being spoken about the Federal Reserve and tariffs. However, until there are actual answers the financial markets are likely to remain rather choppy. Self awareness will be crucial for speculators. Also, a large factor in the financial markets will be played by the U.S White House regarding how incoming results are presented. Until then day traders may want to watch technical charts and try to figure out where programmed trading lurks regarding support and resistance levels. Price velocity in Forex, bond yields and gold should be monitored.

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Risk Events Horizon, Fireworks and a Tranquil Marketplace

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Risk Events Horizon, Fireworks and a Tranquil Marketplace

Financial narrative as always remains important and depends on who is sharing their viewpoints. As of today the U.S Senate is still discussing spending legislation which President Trump is selling as the Big Beautiful Bill. Even some Republicans don’t quite agree and it has caused political turmoil already, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis has announced he will not seek reelection in 2026, but the markets remain stable. An agreement on the budget bill looks like it will take longer than hoped. However, day traders should remain calm.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 1st July 2025

The words scramble and race are being used by some in the media as the Senate tries to pass the legislation. If the Senate is able to approve a budget it will still have to be voted on by the House of Representatives. The deadline of July 4th is political theatre orchestrated by President Trump largely because of Independence Day symbolism. Early fireworks are ready to be sounded by some market analysts in Washington D.C if there is a legislative failure. There is a risk of irritating the White House and a danger of political backlash for certain politicians if hurdles are not jumped.

Elon Musk apparently hasn’t bought into the White House threats and has once again started to express criticism of the bill. But Musk’s condemnation seems to be falling on deaf ears the past couple of days as the work of market participants have achieved rather serene outcomes. Musk remains an important voice globally, but he has been sidelined rather effectively by President Trump in the past month. The media seemingly doesn’t have a taste for another round of Musk versus Trump recriminations and the public appears bored.

The coming Independence Day holiday means the Non Farm Employment Change numbers will be published this Thursday. The employment data may not get much fanfare if the U.S Senate is still dancing with the Big Beautiful Bill. The long holiday weekend could be made rather volatile if the legislation deadline is not met. If there is no conclusion to the Big Beautiful Bill going into the July 4th celebrations, financial institutions may preposition for the long weekend in a cautious manner, but panic doesn’t appear anticipated.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 1st July 2025

Adding to the risk events horizon with dynamic ingredients are the 9th of July tariff negotiations and results which will be announced by the White House. Countries such as India are hoping for a positive outcome or at least a pronouncement of optimism that progress has been made. And this is possibly the most important role for the Big Beautiful Bill and the Tariff deadline, it is all self imposed dramatics by President Trump. The double feature for investors may be rather dull because many have seen this film before.

There is pressure on the U.S Senate to pass the spending bill, and on nations trying to negotiate new trading terms. However, many have the likely notion, that as long as the promise of solid developments are predictably claimed by the White House that global markets will stay calm.

Experienced traders in financial institutions have proven tranquil the past week, excluding the recently seen Middle East conflict – which also became a buying opportunity. The solid results seen recently might be evidence that players in equities, commodities, bonds and Forex may be viewing the anticipated fireworks with a lack of fear. While President Trump has a substantial amount of power, he also has shown the ability to take a step backwards and allow for extensions of dialogue.

The broad markets have learned to practice patience with President Trump over the past handful of months, and perhaps aren’t focused on short-term volatility, while continuing to be optimistic about mid-term harmony. The strong selling in U.S equity indices this past winter and into April has turned into bullish dreams and record values being challenged.

Yes, there will be bursts of noise from various corners that beg for attention, but financial institutions may simply go into the weekend unperturbed and feel as if they know the coming political and economic script. Day traders as always need to remain alert to risks, but keeping undisturbed if an uproar begins to reach fever pitch over the coming days may provide the best results. Market bedlam may stay rather muted much to the dismay of headlines proclaiming coming catastrophe.

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The Fed: Beating a Dead Horse as the Bulls want to Run

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

The Fed: Beating a Dead Horse as the Bulls want to Run

Yesterday’s lackluster and underperforming GDP results from the U.S highlights our often discussed doubts surrounding the Federal Reserve. While Jerome Powell definitely has a right to be ‘uncertain’ and express his concerns regarding sudden inflation emerging, he has also proven to be wrong. The Fed should have begun cutting the Federal Funds Rate three months ago.

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10-Year U.S Treasury Yields Three Month Chart as of 27th June 2025

Although Powell may not be a fan of President Trump, the Fed Chairman and the FOMC has the ability to be more nimble in this era. Instead of being passive about interest rates, the Fed could have lowered borrowing costs and helped spur on the U.S economy months ago instead of watching GDP numbers falter.

For all of the consternation regarding potential tariff pratfalls, the effect from President Trump’s policies have not caused massive inflation. The Fed can begin cutting rates even before the next FOMC meeting in late July, but they will not. In fact, the Fed should now cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% in late July, but again they won’t. We will be lucky to get a 25 point basis cut.

The Federal Reserve remains too passive and acts as if it doesn’t have data technology which can be more proactive. Instead, Fed Chairman Powell chooses to act as if cutting the Fed Funds Rate is an academic exercise and can be done via a polite semester like manner akin to a report card. Dangerously, the U.S is paying an exorbitant amount of interest on long-term Treasuries and short-term Notes. Lower borrowing costs would also help U.S consumers. Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to care about these factors, which raises the consideration regarding his loyalties.

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U.S Dollar Index Five Year Chart as of 27th June 2025

In recent weeks there have been at least two FOMC members who have suggested that interest rates need to be cut sooner rather than later. And there are some financial institutions who are clamoring for aggressive interest rate cuts throughout the calendar year and into 2026 in order to jumpstart the U.S economy, this includes Goldman Sachs and UBS. Signs of evidence that interest rate cuts will develop can be seen in the 10-Year Treasury yields which have been eroding recently. Some may claim this is a false narrative and that it is merely risk premium starting to be discounted. Nevertheless yields have lowered in the past month.

Yes, President Trump speaks loudly and delivers brawling negotiations. July 9th is another deadline for tariff agreements. However, financial institutions and many governments have learned to cope with President Trump’s backstreet tactics, which academics like Jerome Powell are not fond of particularly. U.S stock markets are hovering near highs, but still cautious because they are waiting on impetus from the Federal Reserve.

If the Fed fails to deliver an impactful FOMC Statement in late July this will not be greeted well by investors. Many believe the Fed needs to react, and it is quite apparent the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and even the Dow 30 are positioning for gates to be opened allowing for a bullish stampede. The USD has been weaker too the past few months as large commercial players anticipate lower U.S borrowing costs. The time for the Fed and Chairman Powell to act is now, making it clear that cuts to the Federal Funds Rate are coming.

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Quick Hits: Inflation, USD, China and U.S Trade and WTI

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Quick Hits: Inflation, USD, China and U.S Trade and WTI

Yesterday’s weaker than anticipated CPI data from the U.S cements the realization that inflation is eroding in the States statistically in a rather consistent fashion. Today’s PPI numbers will be watched, but yesterday’s results clearly show the Federal Reserve has been far too cautious.

Media reported yesterday’s inflation results differently showing bias as some pointed out that inflation rose, compared to some outlets that showed it came in less than expected. Bottom line – inflation has been below expectations consistently and tariff concerns as of yet have not killed the U.S economy with higher prices. The Fed’s insistence on being cautious are comparable to the instincts of an overly protective parent. Day traders need to understand their perceptions are in danger of being affected by folks with confirmation bias.

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EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 12th June 2025

The EUR/USD climbed above the 1.15000 level again yesterday confirming mid-term outlook for a weaker USD based on the notion the Federal Reserve will have to lower the Federal Funds Rate exists. While perhaps kicking and screaming against their desires to remain hawkish, the Fed will start feeling the heat to act. Next week’s FOMC meeting is unlikely to be the actual date. However, financial institutions have certainly been leaning into a weaker USD since April, and the upwards trajectory in values by major currencies against the USD may prove to be a solid baseline via support prices moving forward.

Certainly, day traders should consider the notion that larger traders have bet against the USD already, thus leaving the door open to the potential of reversals. Yet, mid-term price levels are what financial institutions are gearing their outlooks towards via cash forward transactions for commercial companies. If financial institutions believe the Fed will have to indicate the potential of a rate cut not only in July, but another one in September this could spur on additional USD weakness. Folks should also consider the notion that the White House won’t be against a somewhat weaker USD in order to help U.S manufacturers and producers export.

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USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 12th June 2025

U.S stock indices didn’t climb on the results of the China tariff news proclaiming a working agreement has been attained over the past two days. Perhaps markets are inclined to believe there will be more fireworks regarding rhetoric from the U.S and China over the coming months – which appears logical given the circumstances between the two nations.

While rare earth metals got the headlines, there appears to be plenty of line items in the tariff negotiations that still must be worked on. The announcement that the deadline has been pushed back again, this time until the 9th of August shows that talks are making progress – but slowly. Red lines keep getting erased.

Financial markets reacted rather passively to the U.S and China news, seemingly indicating larger players are now focused on other matters, and funds have played most of their cards regarding the China and U.S saga via their existing trading positions. Noteworthy, is the fact, the USD/CNY has reacted in a rather correlated fashion with the broad Forex market the past six months. For all the talk about a catastrophe for China and U.S trade, the USD/CYN has behaved quite well, showing the Chinese government is playing a long game against President Trump and doesn’t want to create a huge firefight via currency manipulation accusations.

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WTI Crude Oil Five Day Chart as of 12 June 2025

Middle East Escalation: WTI Crude Oil jumped late yesterday as news quickly filtered through social circles of embassy evacuations in various proximities within reach of Iran. The loud whispers certainly caused the price of the commodity to surge to almost $67.75 last night, but this morning’s values suggest some deep breaths have been taken as WTI trades near $66.45.

For options traders who want to buy cheap calls on WTI, they will likely have to look several months out and speculate on military escalation under rather speculative circumstances. If traders want an idea of what larger players are doing in options they can use CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) info to get some thoughts on positioning pattens in WTI Crude Oil calls and puts. The call options did get more expensive last night – meaning that some large traders are hedging against the threat of higher WTI Crude Oil prices because they are likely leaning into cheaper oil for the time being, or they are betting on the price of the commodity to rise if chaos breaks out in the Middle East.

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No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

On Wednesday of this week Consumer Price Index numbers will be published, followed by Producer Price Index data on Thursday. Inflation statistics from the U.S for several months have been coming in rather tame and sometimes below forecasted results. Fed Chairman Powell and his team of FOMC members continue to plead uncertainty as the main reason for a lack of Federal Fund Rate cuts because of tariff concerns. The next meeting by the Fed finishes on Wednesday the 18th of June.

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U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

Even if the inflation numbers come in as anticipated in the next few days, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates next week. President Trump and some in his cabinet have spoken about the need for rate cuts. Not only would it help consumers via mortgage rates, borrowing costs to buy autos and other high ticket items, but it would help the U.S government pay less on interest rate expenditures generated by inflamed Treasury yields.

The Fed continues to stay passive about its outlook, but if inflation data via the CPI and PPI are near forecasts this week, why would the U.S central bank continue to take such a stubborn stance? Interest rate decisions are not supposed to be political. The Fed has pointed to the potential of sudden inflation occurring due to tariff implications. This is a genuine concern. However, why can’t the Federal Reserve be more nimble? Inflation has not shown signs of immediate upwards pressure.

Perhaps it is because the Fed serves large U.S and foreign financial institutions, and has gotten into the habit of telling important folks not only what it anticipates, but handing out its interest rate plans on a silver platter so large players can position themselves beforehand like entitled elites. The Fed is very unlikely to cut interest rates the middle of next week, but it is probable they will open the door to a 25 basis point cut in July. However, July’s meeting is scheduled for the end of that month, in essence this is the middle of the summer, which is a long time to wait for action.

Day traders hoping to ride the trends that flow through the marketplace as they pursue speculative wagers remain in a difficult spot. Intraday volatility remains dangerous. Mid-term outlooks are certainly taking hold in Forex and equity indices, but sudden reversals for those using too much leverage continues to cause harm. Short-term speculators need to remain patient and vigilant, it is important to remember day traders are seen as second class citizens in the big scheme of the financial world, and this is not going to change for the moment.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

A lack of clarity has spooked large players in the financial markets the past handful of months, but it does appear many institutions are becoming more comfortable. Though not at all-time highs, the major stock indices are within sight of important values. Behavioral sentiment seems to be leaning into a more positive outlook. Large investors appear to have concluded that while President Trump talks a tough game and often presents a strong stance, that ultimately he allows for tactical maneuvering to achieve deals. Trump is not big on being polite and this occasionally inflames markets. Bullish sentiment is growing on the hope President Trump’s characteristics are understood.

The Fed and the White House are likely to continue locking horns for the next few weeks. Perhaps if Jerome Powell tries to placate Donald Trump with a solid hint of an interest rate cut in July this will smooth things over. However, waiting for an interest rate cut in late July seems like a road too far, particularly when inflation levels the past couple of months avail the U.S economy to proactive actions from a Federal Reserve now.

Let’s remember, there is no law that says the Fed cannot cut or raise interest rates only during the conclusion of FOMC meetings. The U.S central bank has the ability to make changes to the Federal Funds Rate whenever it deems needed. Yet, the Fed refuses to be nimble in an age when technology allows data to be attained faster, this is a detriment.

The inability of the Fed to show it can be agile is another reason why investors are nervous about U.S policy regarding fiscal matters. The U.S government’s bureaucracy is too slow and bloated. The U.S is still a golden place to invest, but it is becoming problematic and this is leading to changes which effect long-term financial decisions.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

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Western Cape, South Africa

10. Absence: Apologies for the truancy of AMT’s Top 10 the past handful of months. The staff has offered a myriad of poor excuses, but it accepts responsibility and has promised to try and meet the standards of our readers with timely publication once more. More coffee has been promised to the staff as a negotiation tactic by management, even though the price of the beverage is obscene.

9. Dim the Lights: President Cyril Ramaphosa, his staff and well known South African golfers attended a highly publicized meeting in the White House with President Trump. After surprisingly dimming the lights, a video mainly consisting of EFF radical Julius Malema’s threatening escapades was shown while Trump voiced concern about attacks on farmers. Not a lot is known about the outcome of talks which went on behind closed doors afterwards, but speculation abounds. The USD/ZAR is near 17.97000.

8. Anduril Industries: An aviation company, cofounded by Palmer Luckey who at a young age created Oculus VR, is receiving important attention. Anduril is a privately held company intent on building pilotless jet fighters, among other innovative technologies. Palmer Luckey is now 32 years old and appears ready to become a transformative tech entrepreneur perhaps in the vein of Elon Musk.

7. Bitcoin: Value of BTC/USD is near $103,600.00 at this moment. GameStop has announced it has purchased Bitcoin as a form of corporate treasury, apparently following the path of MicroStrategy’s foray as a Bitcoin proxy to the dismay of some and delight of others. The price of the world’s biggest digital asset was nearly $75,000 on the 7th of April 2025.

6. TACO: An acronym meaning ‘Trump always chickens out’, created by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times, has caught the attention of many, including President Trump. While an amusing and pointed term, the context should be considered as a way to monitor the thinking of behavioral sentiment of anxious investors. Trump’s tough rhetoric and tendency to then issue a softer toned stance has been noted before by his backers as well as critics. As a means of accumulation while seeking value in assets perceived to be oversold, TACO may be a useful tool for those who agree with Armstrong’s thinking.

5. Values: Gold went into this weekend near $3,288.00. After achieving an apex around the vicinity of $3,500.00 on the 22nd of April, speculative fever has subsided a bit, but the commodity remains stubbornly in demand. Inflation in the U.S appears to be under control. Yesterday’s Core PCE Price Index met expectations with a monthly outcome of 0.1%. WTI Crude Oil’s spot price finished near $61.05 on Friday showing large traders remain convinced supply is strong.

4. Paralysis: The Fed remains steadfast and scared. While using the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively – as if part of a rave song, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell must contend with official U.S inflation data which is starkly lower and a discontent Donald Trump, this while trying to explain the comatose behavior of the U.S central bank. The Fed should cut the Federal Funds Rate asap. And a 50 basis point cut by the end of this summer should be the discussed target.

3. Leviathan: The White House’s goal of reducing the deficit is running into tough political realities as budget cutting hopes clash with entrenched bureaucracy that swallows money like a hungry sea monster. U.S Treasuries yields remain elevated. The U.S has been cautioned again via rating services – highlighted by Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S bonds. To the chagrin of many fiscal conservatives, U.S government spending remains problematic.

2. Intimidation: Apocalyptic economic headlines attract viewers. Proclaiming global catastrophe creates attention and reactions in global financial markets. However, after the fierce selling seen in equities over the past few months, there has also been plenty of resilience and indices are now showing signs of coalescing as outlooks improve. Value and yields remain a prime motivator for experienced investors.

1. Pundits: Day traders have been battling volatile market storms since the election of Donald Trump, this as financial institutions have shown a tendency to shift outlooks as they react to pandemonium and cause whipsaw price action. Many speculators have experienced costly losses. Listening to self-anointed experts has not helped. Be wary of anyone who claims to be a market guru, and remember some call themselves gurus simply because spelling charlatan takes too long.

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Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

Taco Friday is upon us. Fair or not the newly coined expression TACO – Trump always chickens out – is a rather savvy way of looking at current market perspectives. Day traders have run into a buzzsaw trying to speculate on daily gyrations, but investors who have the ability to accumulate based on valuations in equities, Forex and perhaps even commodities such as gold and WTI Crude Oil have likely enjoyed the choppy ride the past handful of months.

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Nvidia One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders who are betting on the daily whims of Forex or the stock markets have been participating in assets being stirred by a constant storm via behavioral sentiment shifts caused by White House rhetoric. President Trump has said the expression is mean. And in fact the Taco statement may be wrong all together, because what has gone down and back up, has also gone down again followed by additional reversals. But let’s put ego and wrong notions to the side for a moment. Because the important point about the Taco expression is actually about finding value.

Let’s consider that financial institutions have experience and skin in the game. The ability to buy stocks on lows and accumulate them based on a long-term mindset is likely going to prove correct. Consider Nvidia, it has suffered pratfalls, but continues to recover and pick itself off the floor and is now challenging highs again. Yes, the SP500, Nasdaq and Dow30 have all seen what can be described as whipsaw results. However, the optimistic notion that common sense rules and quality will prevail is a feature of investing. Blood on the streets as Warren Buffet has often said, is not a bad thing, it is an opportunity.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders attempting to time the markets have always experienced a great deal of pain when speculating on notions that ‘now is the time’. Patience often proves to be worthwhile in trading and investing. Anyone who claims they are constantly buying exactly on lows and selling on apex values should be treated suspiciously. Attempting to time highs and lows is a bit like gambling on sports without any inside knowledge, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

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U.S Dollar Index as of 30th May 2025

In Forex the USD has been battered but continues to produce sudden violent price action. Today’s Core PCE Price Index from the U.S is expected to produce a 0.1% increase – which would be considered negligible by the markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently met with the President for the first time since Trump took control of the White House this term. The President is on the record as saying the Fed should cut interest rates now, this while Powell repeats the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively.

Today’s inflation report is a vital statistical report for the Federal Reserve and will stir Forex. Perhaps, Jerome Powell should consider the Taco expression and understand that while talking tough Trump often is only expressing a strong stance to achieve a middle ground. If inflation numbers are near the forecasted outlook, the Fed should certainly cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, investors who have been accumulating stock on lower values and are playing a long game, may also be counting on ignition fuel being poured upon the markets to create a dynamic bullish run via positive impetus. Yet, even if profits are not achieved in the short-term, investors also understand they are being given an opportunity via the occasional outbursts from President Trump to take advantage of a rather delicious tactic.

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Why No Major Panic in U.S Stock via Moody’s Downgrade?

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Why No Major Panic in U.S Stock via Moody's Downgrade?

While Asian equity markets opened with initial nervousness yesterday after Friday’s late downgrade of U.S debt by Moody’s to Aa1. The U.S major indices did not respond with panic selling, By the end of yesterday’s trading the Dow30, Nasdaq100 and SP500 turned in rather mundane and positive results. Behavioral sentiment and knowing what experienced investors think remains important for people trying to mirror the actions of larger players while trying to take advantage of potential market action.

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Dow Jones 30 One Year Chart as of 20th May 2025

What was NOT mentioned widely in the press yesterday were the facts that Standard & Poor’s had actually downgraded U.S debt in 2011 from AAA to AA+, also Fitch had been warning of a downgrade the past handful of years and did so in 2023 to AA+. U.S government debt remains a definite burden on the U.S economic outlook, but investment institutions have been discussing the dangers of the 36+ trillion USD deficit for years. Talking about something doesn’t mean it is fixed, but it does mean it has been acknowledged and this is where sentiment comes into play.

Wall Street remains in many respects the only game in town for large global investors looking for quiet steady returns. U.S exceptionalism – or at least the concept that the U.S economy remains a true safe haven compared to other investment vehicles worldwide – continues to spur on a confidence game that sees money pumped into it by global pension funds and long-term investors which seek yields that outpace inflation. It can certainly be argued that this endeavor is not always achieved, but the concept that the ability to grow money faster in equity investments via the likes of index investing compared to letting money sit in a bank is noteworthy. The ability of large institutions to place considerable amounts of money in more speculative pursuits like singular equities in sectors they are interested in like AI and quantum also creates a dimension to outperform benchmark indices., but is riskier.

The USD remains the world’s currency of choice for effective trade and protection against the dangers of volatile Forex. The Trump administration likely wants a weaker USD in order to spur on export from the U.S, but it certainly doesn’t want to see the greenback killed. Nor does the White House want to see U.S Treasury yields balloon too high. Day traders may not have been told to watch yields in the 10 Year U.S Treasuries by their brokers, but it is an open secret that should be used as a barometer for investor sentiment. The signals may not work everyday, but over the long-term if U.S yields on the 10 Year U.S Treasuries are soaring it likely means major U.S equity indices are struggling with anxiety – and when the yields are turning lower it can be expected that U.S equity indices are gaining.

An important piece of the confidence game that speculators should note regarding confidence in U.S markets is that 10 Year U.S Treasury yields yesterday declined, and are now lower than values seen last Friday after the ratings downgrade by Moody’s, and are testing values seen on the 14th of May. Traders should certainly stay alert, but they must remember the U.S investment landscape is resilient and is likely not going to perish suddenly. Investors like most humans tend to be optimistic and believe things will work out with positive results somehow developing. It doesn’t mean stock values will always go up, in fact they can move lower violently periodically, but a long-term vision helps when investing in U.S equities.

There has been no panic in U.S equities and the world continues to look at the SP500, Dow30 and Nasdaq100 as places to position investments. Yes, other spheres exists which can produce greater yields, but this also includes higher risks. International diversification is a solid focal point for investors, and day traders need to understand a complex game is being played. Reacting to every soundbite of developing news probably does more harm to speculators compared to good. A steady approach and conservative risk taking tactics are vital.

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High Level Antics as Trump Battles Institutions over Economy

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

High Level Antics as Trump Battles Institutions over Economy

Late last week Moody’s downgraded U.S debt, and the 10 Year Treasury yields as of this morning are near 4.50%. Yet, the Chicago Volatility Index is around the 17.25 level which is actually a small victory and shows that sentiment has improved quite a bit the past month. Let’s remember the VIX was near 60.50 in early April.

Wall Street had a handful of rather positive trading days too last week. Complexity remains a fixture for investors as they navigate their sentiment which is being generated by a rather stormy mix of perceptions. Day traders continue to face a tough betting environment via trends. The S&P 500 and other stock indices are showing signs of life, but how will they react to the Moody’s downgrade with a full weekend of consideration?

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10 Year U.S Treasury Yields Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Last week’s U.S inflation numbers via CPI and PPI were weaker than expected, which raises the curious and obvious question as to why the Federal Reserve remains overtly cautious and refuses to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% basis points? Short-term traders still have difficult days ahead and those anticipating a fast and powerful bullish run in equities among the bigger indices need to remain vigilant. Sustained higher price action has likely not arrived quite yet for overly optimistic endeavors.

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S&P 500 Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Let there be no doubt that there is a coming collision between the U.S White House and the Federal Reserve. The high level of yields the U.S Treasuries are accountable for are unsustainable and costly for the economy. President Trump will be in no mood for polite conversation with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Now that Trump is back from his Middle East trip he will likely turn his attention to the U.S debt downgrade and blame not only his predecessor in the White House but Powell too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will likely address monetary policy too in the coming days.

The lower costs of WTI Crude Oil seen the past few months is helping fight inflation. As of this morning $61.70 is the vicinity for early trading. The price of energy appears to be within a solid lower range and likely has little ability to raise significantly. If the price of WTI remains under 70.00 USD this will help global inflation remain rather polite.

But this doesn’t take away from the threat of tariff pressures which do remain unknown. However, it can be argued the Federal Reserve is being far too cautious in the interim. Yes, the U.S central bank faces uncertain economic forecasts because of the potential of U.S tariffs hitting manufacturing and consumer prices, but there is a chance also the Trump administration will actually achieve better than anticipated trade agreements.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Gold as of this morning is slightly above $3,200.00 per ounce, which shows that speculators and investors have backed away from the buying power the precious metal created in the third week of April when the $3,500.00 price was challenged. The USD remains in a dog fight against major currencies in Forex as financial institutions look for equilibrium and try to decide if they should gamble on the Fed cutting interest rates in July. The USD has lost value since early April and remains in weaker mid-term territory. However, the EUR/USD has given back a lot of its gains made throughout April, but financial institutions may now look at current levels as viable support and become buyers again.

Day traders remain in a difficult spot. Wagering on daily market gyrations via interpretations of behavioral sentiment is sensible, but the problem is the quickly shifting winds that still remain a danger. Folks participating in the markets should use the 10 Year U.S Treasury yields as a barometer. Having fallen to lows below 4.00% in the first week of April, investors are again demanding more incentives to buy U.S debt, highlighting murky mid-term outlooks.

U.S Manufacturing PMI numbers will be released this week on Thursday, but this will not influence the markets too much. Instead investors will keep their eyes on the White House as media focus turns from Middle East politics to U.S economic policy. While there have been ‘green shoots’ emerging in the SP500, Nasdaq100 and Dow30, traders should keep their leverage at conservative levels if they merely intend on making short-term wagers.

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Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

Current speculative conditions are difficult for day traders. In most cases the market environments are likely very costly too. The amount of recent volatility over the past few months has made brokers very happy and traders very poor in many cases. Traders seeking to profit with limited resources who are using too much leverage have certainly lost money in many cases. No one talks about losses at dinner parties, folks like to brag only about their winning bets.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 15th May 2025

To trade effectively in current circumstances a speculator needs patience, very limited leverage, and even the ability to carry trades overnight. The markets via Forex, equity indices and commodities due to the Trump Effect are fast and volatile. Having too much leverage on one single trade can create devastating losses. An other item to practice under present market chaos is to limit your trading. Do NOT have more than a couple of trades on at one time. Do not divert your attention if you are not able to handle the speed of the markets with too many wagers at one time.

In order to get an effective outcome, you need to not only be focused and use conservative amounts of money to wager on a position, but you also need to be able to handle the volatility of a trade while it losses money. And under the present markets – for instance CFD trading of stock indices like the Nasdaq100 or SP500 – results are dynamic via their reversals. Thus, you need to be able to handle the intraday volatility and perhaps consider carrying a trade overnight which creates other expenses from brokers who charge for the pleasure of near-term trading compared to quick short-term bets. Stop losses are important, but if you use conservative leverage this allows you the ability to let an asset trade via a wider range.

The markets are likely to stay chaotic for a while. Conditions do seem to be improving, but a broad spectrum of assets are still seeing daily moves that suggest nervousness has not disappeared fully yet. Optimism is showing slivers of light for bullish perspectives, but short-term players will watch their visions turn into mirages if they are over leveraged and over confident. Speculators need to remain wary of their perspectives because sentiment will continue to shift rapidly. Clarity may be on the horizon, but in order to profit from more optimistic outcomes patience is needed. The markets as they stand today are a fine example of the tortoise and hare race – a slow steady approach is safer than a helter-skelter rocket ride for traders.