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Quick Hits: Inflation, USD, China and U.S Trade and WTI

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Quick Hits: Inflation, USD, China and U.S Trade and WTI

Yesterday’s weaker than anticipated CPI data from the U.S cements the realization that inflation is eroding in the States statistically in a rather consistent fashion. Today’s PPI numbers will be watched, but yesterday’s results clearly show the Federal Reserve has been far too cautious.

Media reported yesterday’s inflation results differently showing bias as some pointed out that inflation rose, compared to some outlets that showed it came in less than expected. Bottom line – inflation has been below expectations consistently and tariff concerns as of yet have not killed the U.S economy with higher prices. The Fed’s insistence on being cautious are comparable to the instincts of an overly protective parent. Day traders need to understand their perceptions are in danger of being affected by folks with confirmation bias.

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EUR/USD Three Month Chart as of 12th June 2025

The EUR/USD climbed above the 1.15000 level again yesterday confirming mid-term outlook for a weaker USD based on the notion the Federal Reserve will have to lower the Federal Funds Rate exists. While perhaps kicking and screaming against their desires to remain hawkish, the Fed will start feeling the heat to act. Next week’s FOMC meeting is unlikely to be the actual date. However, financial institutions have certainly been leaning into a weaker USD since April, and the upwards trajectory in values by major currencies against the USD may prove to be a solid baseline via support prices moving forward.

Certainly, day traders should consider the notion that larger traders have bet against the USD already, thus leaving the door open to the potential of reversals. Yet, mid-term price levels are what financial institutions are gearing their outlooks towards via cash forward transactions for commercial companies. If financial institutions believe the Fed will have to indicate the potential of a rate cut not only in July, but another one in September this could spur on additional USD weakness. Folks should also consider the notion that the White House won’t be against a somewhat weaker USD in order to help U.S manufacturers and producers export.

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USD/CNY Six Month Chart as of 12th June 2025

U.S stock indices didn’t climb on the results of the China tariff news proclaiming a working agreement has been attained over the past two days. Perhaps markets are inclined to believe there will be more fireworks regarding rhetoric from the U.S and China over the coming months – which appears logical given the circumstances between the two nations.

While rare earth metals got the headlines, there appears to be plenty of line items in the tariff negotiations that still must be worked on. The announcement that the deadline has been pushed back again, this time until the 9th of August shows that talks are making progress – but slowly. Red lines keep getting erased.

Financial markets reacted rather passively to the U.S and China news, seemingly indicating larger players are now focused on other matters, and funds have played most of their cards regarding the China and U.S saga via their existing trading positions. Noteworthy, is the fact, the USD/CNY has reacted in a rather correlated fashion with the broad Forex market the past six months. For all the talk about a catastrophe for China and U.S trade, the USD/CYN has behaved quite well, showing the Chinese government is playing a long game against President Trump and doesn’t want to create a huge firefight via currency manipulation accusations.

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WTI Crude Oil Five Day Chart as of 12 June 2025

Middle East Escalation: WTI Crude Oil jumped late yesterday as news quickly filtered through social circles of embassy evacuations in various proximities within reach of Iran. The loud whispers certainly caused the price of the commodity to surge to almost $67.75 last night, but this morning’s values suggest some deep breaths have been taken as WTI trades near $66.45.

For options traders who want to buy cheap calls on WTI, they will likely have to look several months out and speculate on military escalation under rather speculative circumstances. If traders want an idea of what larger players are doing in options they can use CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) info to get some thoughts on positioning pattens in WTI Crude Oil calls and puts. The call options did get more expensive last night – meaning that some large traders are hedging against the threat of higher WTI Crude Oil prices because they are likely leaning into cheaper oil for the time being, or they are betting on the price of the commodity to rise if chaos breaks out in the Middle East.

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No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

On Wednesday of this week Consumer Price Index numbers will be published, followed by Producer Price Index data on Thursday. Inflation statistics from the U.S for several months have been coming in rather tame and sometimes below forecasted results. Fed Chairman Powell and his team of FOMC members continue to plead uncertainty as the main reason for a lack of Federal Fund Rate cuts because of tariff concerns. The next meeting by the Fed finishes on Wednesday the 18th of June.

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U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

Even if the inflation numbers come in as anticipated in the next few days, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates next week. President Trump and some in his cabinet have spoken about the need for rate cuts. Not only would it help consumers via mortgage rates, borrowing costs to buy autos and other high ticket items, but it would help the U.S government pay less on interest rate expenditures generated by inflamed Treasury yields.

The Fed continues to stay passive about its outlook, but if inflation data via the CPI and PPI are near forecasts this week, why would the U.S central bank continue to take such a stubborn stance? Interest rate decisions are not supposed to be political. The Fed has pointed to the potential of sudden inflation occurring due to tariff implications. This is a genuine concern. However, why can’t the Federal Reserve be more nimble? Inflation has not shown signs of immediate upwards pressure.

Perhaps it is because the Fed serves large U.S and foreign financial institutions, and has gotten into the habit of telling important folks not only what it anticipates, but handing out its interest rate plans on a silver platter so large players can position themselves beforehand like entitled elites. The Fed is very unlikely to cut interest rates the middle of next week, but it is probable they will open the door to a 25 basis point cut in July. However, July’s meeting is scheduled for the end of that month, in essence this is the middle of the summer, which is a long time to wait for action.

Day traders hoping to ride the trends that flow through the marketplace as they pursue speculative wagers remain in a difficult spot. Intraday volatility remains dangerous. Mid-term outlooks are certainly taking hold in Forex and equity indices, but sudden reversals for those using too much leverage continues to cause harm. Short-term speculators need to remain patient and vigilant, it is important to remember day traders are seen as second class citizens in the big scheme of the financial world, and this is not going to change for the moment.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

A lack of clarity has spooked large players in the financial markets the past handful of months, but it does appear many institutions are becoming more comfortable. Though not at all-time highs, the major stock indices are within sight of important values. Behavioral sentiment seems to be leaning into a more positive outlook. Large investors appear to have concluded that while President Trump talks a tough game and often presents a strong stance, that ultimately he allows for tactical maneuvering to achieve deals. Trump is not big on being polite and this occasionally inflames markets. Bullish sentiment is growing on the hope President Trump’s characteristics are understood.

The Fed and the White House are likely to continue locking horns for the next few weeks. Perhaps if Jerome Powell tries to placate Donald Trump with a solid hint of an interest rate cut in July this will smooth things over. However, waiting for an interest rate cut in late July seems like a road too far, particularly when inflation levels the past couple of months avail the U.S economy to proactive actions from a Federal Reserve now.

Let’s remember, there is no law that says the Fed cannot cut or raise interest rates only during the conclusion of FOMC meetings. The U.S central bank has the ability to make changes to the Federal Funds Rate whenever it deems needed. Yet, the Fed refuses to be nimble in an age when technology allows data to be attained faster, this is a detriment.

The inability of the Fed to show it can be agile is another reason why investors are nervous about U.S policy regarding fiscal matters. The U.S government’s bureaucracy is too slow and bloated. The U.S is still a golden place to invest, but it is becoming problematic and this is leading to changes which effect long-term financial decisions.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

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Western Cape, South Africa

10. Absence: Apologies for the truancy of AMT’s Top 10 the past handful of months. The staff has offered a myriad of poor excuses, but it accepts responsibility and has promised to try and meet the standards of our readers with timely publication once more. More coffee has been promised to the staff as a negotiation tactic by management, even though the price of the beverage is obscene.

9. Dim the Lights: President Cyril Ramaphosa, his staff and well known South African golfers attended a highly publicized meeting in the White House with President Trump. After surprisingly dimming the lights, a video mainly consisting of EFF radical Julius Malema’s threatening escapades was shown while Trump voiced concern about attacks on farmers. Not a lot is known about the outcome of talks which went on behind closed doors afterwards, but speculation abounds. The USD/ZAR is near 17.97000.

8. Anduril Industries: An aviation company, cofounded by Palmer Luckey who at a young age created Oculus VR, is receiving important attention. Anduril is a privately held company intent on building pilotless jet fighters, among other innovative technologies. Palmer Luckey is now 32 years old and appears ready to become a transformative tech entrepreneur perhaps in the vein of Elon Musk.

7. Bitcoin: Value of BTC/USD is near $103,600.00 at this moment. GameStop has announced it has purchased Bitcoin as a form of corporate treasury, apparently following the path of MicroStrategy’s foray as a Bitcoin proxy to the dismay of some and delight of others. The price of the world’s biggest digital asset was nearly $75,000 on the 7th of April 2025.

6. TACO: An acronym meaning ‘Trump always chickens out’, created by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times, has caught the attention of many, including President Trump. While an amusing and pointed term, the context should be considered as a way to monitor the thinking of behavioral sentiment of anxious investors. Trump’s tough rhetoric and tendency to then issue a softer toned stance has been noted before by his backers as well as critics. As a means of accumulation while seeking value in assets perceived to be oversold, TACO may be a useful tool for those who agree with Armstrong’s thinking.

5. Values: Gold went into this weekend near $3,288.00. After achieving an apex around the vicinity of $3,500.00 on the 22nd of April, speculative fever has subsided a bit, but the commodity remains stubbornly in demand. Inflation in the U.S appears to be under control. Yesterday’s Core PCE Price Index met expectations with a monthly outcome of 0.1%. WTI Crude Oil’s spot price finished near $61.05 on Friday showing large traders remain convinced supply is strong.

4. Paralysis: The Fed remains steadfast and scared. While using the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively – as if part of a rave song, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell must contend with official U.S inflation data which is starkly lower and a discontent Donald Trump, this while trying to explain the comatose behavior of the U.S central bank. The Fed should cut the Federal Funds Rate asap. And a 50 basis point cut by the end of this summer should be the discussed target.

3. Leviathan: The White House’s goal of reducing the deficit is running into tough political realities as budget cutting hopes clash with entrenched bureaucracy that swallows money like a hungry sea monster. U.S Treasuries yields remain elevated. The U.S has been cautioned again via rating services – highlighted by Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S bonds. To the chagrin of many fiscal conservatives, U.S government spending remains problematic.

2. Intimidation: Apocalyptic economic headlines attract viewers. Proclaiming global catastrophe creates attention and reactions in global financial markets. However, after the fierce selling seen in equities over the past few months, there has also been plenty of resilience and indices are now showing signs of coalescing as outlooks improve. Value and yields remain a prime motivator for experienced investors.

1. Pundits: Day traders have been battling volatile market storms since the election of Donald Trump, this as financial institutions have shown a tendency to shift outlooks as they react to pandemonium and cause whipsaw price action. Many speculators have experienced costly losses. Listening to self-anointed experts has not helped. Be wary of anyone who claims to be a market guru, and remember some call themselves gurus simply because spelling charlatan takes too long.

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Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

Taco Friday is upon us. Fair or not the newly coined expression TACO – Trump always chickens out – is a rather savvy way of looking at current market perspectives. Day traders have run into a buzzsaw trying to speculate on daily gyrations, but investors who have the ability to accumulate based on valuations in equities, Forex and perhaps even commodities such as gold and WTI Crude Oil have likely enjoyed the choppy ride the past handful of months.

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Nvidia One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders who are betting on the daily whims of Forex or the stock markets have been participating in assets being stirred by a constant storm via behavioral sentiment shifts caused by White House rhetoric. President Trump has said the expression is mean. And in fact the Taco statement may be wrong all together, because what has gone down and back up, has also gone down again followed by additional reversals. But let’s put ego and wrong notions to the side for a moment. Because the important point about the Taco expression is actually about finding value.

Let’s consider that financial institutions have experience and skin in the game. The ability to buy stocks on lows and accumulate them based on a long-term mindset is likely going to prove correct. Consider Nvidia, it has suffered pratfalls, but continues to recover and pick itself off the floor and is now challenging highs again. Yes, the SP500, Nasdaq and Dow30 have all seen what can be described as whipsaw results. However, the optimistic notion that common sense rules and quality will prevail is a feature of investing. Blood on the streets as Warren Buffet has often said, is not a bad thing, it is an opportunity.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders attempting to time the markets have always experienced a great deal of pain when speculating on notions that ‘now is the time’. Patience often proves to be worthwhile in trading and investing. Anyone who claims they are constantly buying exactly on lows and selling on apex values should be treated suspiciously. Attempting to time highs and lows is a bit like gambling on sports without any inside knowledge, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

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U.S Dollar Index as of 30th May 2025

In Forex the USD has been battered but continues to produce sudden violent price action. Today’s Core PCE Price Index from the U.S is expected to produce a 0.1% increase – which would be considered negligible by the markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently met with the President for the first time since Trump took control of the White House this term. The President is on the record as saying the Fed should cut interest rates now, this while Powell repeats the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively.

Today’s inflation report is a vital statistical report for the Federal Reserve and will stir Forex. Perhaps, Jerome Powell should consider the Taco expression and understand that while talking tough Trump often is only expressing a strong stance to achieve a middle ground. If inflation numbers are near the forecasted outlook, the Fed should certainly cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, investors who have been accumulating stock on lower values and are playing a long game, may also be counting on ignition fuel being poured upon the markets to create a dynamic bullish run via positive impetus. Yet, even if profits are not achieved in the short-term, investors also understand they are being given an opportunity via the occasional outbursts from President Trump to take advantage of a rather delicious tactic.

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Why No Major Panic in U.S Stock via Moody’s Downgrade?

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Why No Major Panic in U.S Stock via Moody's Downgrade?

While Asian equity markets opened with initial nervousness yesterday after Friday’s late downgrade of U.S debt by Moody’s to Aa1. The U.S major indices did not respond with panic selling, By the end of yesterday’s trading the Dow30, Nasdaq100 and SP500 turned in rather mundane and positive results. Behavioral sentiment and knowing what experienced investors think remains important for people trying to mirror the actions of larger players while trying to take advantage of potential market action.

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Dow Jones 30 One Year Chart as of 20th May 2025

What was NOT mentioned widely in the press yesterday were the facts that Standard & Poor’s had actually downgraded U.S debt in 2011 from AAA to AA+, also Fitch had been warning of a downgrade the past handful of years and did so in 2023 to AA+. U.S government debt remains a definite burden on the U.S economic outlook, but investment institutions have been discussing the dangers of the 36+ trillion USD deficit for years. Talking about something doesn’t mean it is fixed, but it does mean it has been acknowledged and this is where sentiment comes into play.

Wall Street remains in many respects the only game in town for large global investors looking for quiet steady returns. U.S exceptionalism – or at least the concept that the U.S economy remains a true safe haven compared to other investment vehicles worldwide – continues to spur on a confidence game that sees money pumped into it by global pension funds and long-term investors which seek yields that outpace inflation. It can certainly be argued that this endeavor is not always achieved, but the concept that the ability to grow money faster in equity investments via the likes of index investing compared to letting money sit in a bank is noteworthy. The ability of large institutions to place considerable amounts of money in more speculative pursuits like singular equities in sectors they are interested in like AI and quantum also creates a dimension to outperform benchmark indices., but is riskier.

The USD remains the world’s currency of choice for effective trade and protection against the dangers of volatile Forex. The Trump administration likely wants a weaker USD in order to spur on export from the U.S, but it certainly doesn’t want to see the greenback killed. Nor does the White House want to see U.S Treasury yields balloon too high. Day traders may not have been told to watch yields in the 10 Year U.S Treasuries by their brokers, but it is an open secret that should be used as a barometer for investor sentiment. The signals may not work everyday, but over the long-term if U.S yields on the 10 Year U.S Treasuries are soaring it likely means major U.S equity indices are struggling with anxiety – and when the yields are turning lower it can be expected that U.S equity indices are gaining.

An important piece of the confidence game that speculators should note regarding confidence in U.S markets is that 10 Year U.S Treasury yields yesterday declined, and are now lower than values seen last Friday after the ratings downgrade by Moody’s, and are testing values seen on the 14th of May. Traders should certainly stay alert, but they must remember the U.S investment landscape is resilient and is likely not going to perish suddenly. Investors like most humans tend to be optimistic and believe things will work out with positive results somehow developing. It doesn’t mean stock values will always go up, in fact they can move lower violently periodically, but a long-term vision helps when investing in U.S equities.

There has been no panic in U.S equities and the world continues to look at the SP500, Dow30 and Nasdaq100 as places to position investments. Yes, other spheres exists which can produce greater yields, but this also includes higher risks. International diversification is a solid focal point for investors, and day traders need to understand a complex game is being played. Reacting to every soundbite of developing news probably does more harm to speculators compared to good. A steady approach and conservative risk taking tactics are vital.

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High Level Antics as Trump Battles Institutions over Economy

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

High Level Antics as Trump Battles Institutions over Economy

Late last week Moody’s downgraded U.S debt, and the 10 Year Treasury yields as of this morning are near 4.50%. Yet, the Chicago Volatility Index is around the 17.25 level which is actually a small victory and shows that sentiment has improved quite a bit the past month. Let’s remember the VIX was near 60.50 in early April.

Wall Street had a handful of rather positive trading days too last week. Complexity remains a fixture for investors as they navigate their sentiment which is being generated by a rather stormy mix of perceptions. Day traders continue to face a tough betting environment via trends. The S&P 500 and other stock indices are showing signs of life, but how will they react to the Moody’s downgrade with a full weekend of consideration?

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10 Year U.S Treasury Yields Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Last week’s U.S inflation numbers via CPI and PPI were weaker than expected, which raises the curious and obvious question as to why the Federal Reserve remains overtly cautious and refuses to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% basis points? Short-term traders still have difficult days ahead and those anticipating a fast and powerful bullish run in equities among the bigger indices need to remain vigilant. Sustained higher price action has likely not arrived quite yet for overly optimistic endeavors.

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S&P 500 Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Let there be no doubt that there is a coming collision between the U.S White House and the Federal Reserve. The high level of yields the U.S Treasuries are accountable for are unsustainable and costly for the economy. President Trump will be in no mood for polite conversation with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Now that Trump is back from his Middle East trip he will likely turn his attention to the U.S debt downgrade and blame not only his predecessor in the White House but Powell too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will likely address monetary policy too in the coming days.

The lower costs of WTI Crude Oil seen the past few months is helping fight inflation. As of this morning $61.70 is the vicinity for early trading. The price of energy appears to be within a solid lower range and likely has little ability to raise significantly. If the price of WTI remains under 70.00 USD this will help global inflation remain rather polite.

But this doesn’t take away from the threat of tariff pressures which do remain unknown. However, it can be argued the Federal Reserve is being far too cautious in the interim. Yes, the U.S central bank faces uncertain economic forecasts because of the potential of U.S tariffs hitting manufacturing and consumer prices, but there is a chance also the Trump administration will actually achieve better than anticipated trade agreements.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Gold as of this morning is slightly above $3,200.00 per ounce, which shows that speculators and investors have backed away from the buying power the precious metal created in the third week of April when the $3,500.00 price was challenged. The USD remains in a dog fight against major currencies in Forex as financial institutions look for equilibrium and try to decide if they should gamble on the Fed cutting interest rates in July. The USD has lost value since early April and remains in weaker mid-term territory. However, the EUR/USD has given back a lot of its gains made throughout April, but financial institutions may now look at current levels as viable support and become buyers again.

Day traders remain in a difficult spot. Wagering on daily market gyrations via interpretations of behavioral sentiment is sensible, but the problem is the quickly shifting winds that still remain a danger. Folks participating in the markets should use the 10 Year U.S Treasury yields as a barometer. Having fallen to lows below 4.00% in the first week of April, investors are again demanding more incentives to buy U.S debt, highlighting murky mid-term outlooks.

U.S Manufacturing PMI numbers will be released this week on Thursday, but this will not influence the markets too much. Instead investors will keep their eyes on the White House as media focus turns from Middle East politics to U.S economic policy. While there have been ‘green shoots’ emerging in the SP500, Nasdaq100 and Dow30, traders should keep their leverage at conservative levels if they merely intend on making short-term wagers.

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Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

Current speculative conditions are difficult for day traders. In most cases the market environments are likely very costly too. The amount of recent volatility over the past few months has made brokers very happy and traders very poor in many cases. Traders seeking to profit with limited resources who are using too much leverage have certainly lost money in many cases. No one talks about losses at dinner parties, folks like to brag only about their winning bets.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 15th May 2025

To trade effectively in current circumstances a speculator needs patience, very limited leverage, and even the ability to carry trades overnight. The markets via Forex, equity indices and commodities due to the Trump Effect are fast and volatile. Having too much leverage on one single trade can create devastating losses. An other item to practice under present market chaos is to limit your trading. Do NOT have more than a couple of trades on at one time. Do not divert your attention if you are not able to handle the speed of the markets with too many wagers at one time.

In order to get an effective outcome, you need to not only be focused and use conservative amounts of money to wager on a position, but you also need to be able to handle the volatility of a trade while it losses money. And under the present markets – for instance CFD trading of stock indices like the Nasdaq100 or SP500 – results are dynamic via their reversals. Thus, you need to be able to handle the intraday volatility and perhaps consider carrying a trade overnight which creates other expenses from brokers who charge for the pleasure of near-term trading compared to quick short-term bets. Stop losses are important, but if you use conservative leverage this allows you the ability to let an asset trade via a wider range.

The markets are likely to stay chaotic for a while. Conditions do seem to be improving, but a broad spectrum of assets are still seeing daily moves that suggest nervousness has not disappeared fully yet. Optimism is showing slivers of light for bullish perspectives, but short-term players will watch their visions turn into mirages if they are over leveraged and over confident. Speculators need to remain wary of their perspectives because sentiment will continue to shift rapidly. Clarity may be on the horizon, but in order to profit from more optimistic outcomes patience is needed. The markets as they stand today are a fine example of the tortoise and hare race – a slow steady approach is safer than a helter-skelter rocket ride for traders.

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Market Volatility Shelf Life Doesn’t Have an Expiration Date

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Market Volatility Shelf Life Doesn't Have an Expiration Date

Updated: Apr 11

An associate in the financial world just wrote to me that “all bets are off”. Perhaps that is a solid way to think about the present speculative and investment situation. The tumultuous wave of hysteria in equity indices, Forex, commodities and U.S Treasuries are evident to everyone. President Trump’s tariff policies released last week lacked precision via perspectives for many investment institutions who suddenly had their mirage of calm destroyed. The realization that President Trump was undertaking what he had promised caught many by surprise who thought he was bluffing. Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics are now being confronted by middlegame chess strategies from opponents.

While the broad markets have boiled and folks look for calm to return, the prospect that current volatility has the potential to carry a long shelf life with no expiration date has to be considered. Yes, the financial world will become serene again. The return of semi-tranquil trading has been seen in the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow 30 the past couple of days – only because the losses and gains depending on the index have been moderate compared to last Thursday’s and Friday’s results.

Yet the shadow of more violent trading remains crystal clear. China and the U.S are now exchanging loud threats which include higher tariffs and retaliatory measures. The USD/CNY is under scrutiny as devaluation by China appears an evident threat. And U.S Treasuries are being watched as some contemplate that China is undertaking a selloff of U.S bonds. Higher U.S yields on long-term Treasuries will create pressure via the amount of debt the U.S will be obligated to pay.

Vice President J.D Vance’s peasant comments about China were not helpful on Tuesday. Why must a hornets nest must be stirred up? China has now been hit with a 104% tariff from the U.S, this while China has vowed to ‘fight till the end’ in its media. Asian markets are selling off cautiously this morning as tensions reignite. Forex pairs such as the USD/SGD, USD/ZAR and USD/BRL should be watched as a barometer not only by currency traders, but by those who want metrics regarding how global economic sentiment and credibility of policies are being contemplated. Risk adverse trading in emerging markets will cause harm and has the earmarks of looking like a stiff penalty for nations trying to develop and raise their standards of living.

While the start of this week has been smoother in relative terms compared to last week, the lack of a comprehensive end game is still missing. There is merit to treat current circumstances with cautious respect. The mid-term outlook remains highly questionable as President Trump and his negotiation gambits are tested publicly.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 9th April 2025

Gold has stumbled back to the 3000.00 USD level, WTI Crude Oil is down and these two commodities are intriguing as a looking glass into the hearts of large players. Are people selling gold short-term because they believe inflation will lessen because of a recession which some are forecasting, or is it merely a speculative move? Gold certainly carries an important risk adverse power and its lower move showed be looked upon skeptically.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as of 9th April 2025

Is WTI Crude Oil selling off because there is a belief there will be less demand due to fear tariff policies will influence a stumbling global economy? This viewpoint is plausible, the price of the commodity falling below 60.00 USD is a warning that large players are not comfortable with their outlooks and view downside risks as legitimate. The energy selloff in the past couple of hours is a negative barometer for what potentially is in store the remainder of the day in the broad markets.

The lack of finesse exhibited during these tariff negotiations is not palatable, the taste in the mouths of financial institutions has them worried. And outlooks via talking heads and analysts must be treated carefully by traders, this as they try to digest the onslaught of information and complex economic scenarios. Importantly, day traders should avoid getting caught up in the deleveraging talks surrounding the notion that large financial institutions will now pull money out of their U.S based investments in companies via stocks and Treasuries. Traders need to consider the bias of the people they are listening to and reading, and consider the scope and might of the U.S economy mid and long-term. There will be value found after the massive selloffs.

As a side note Warren Buffett has let it be known for a while he is sitting on a large amount of cash via Berkshire Hathaway. And folks should note that the annual meeting for Berkshire Hathaway is on Saturday the 3rd of May, which means people should get ready for insights from Buffett and his legions of admirers in the coming weeks. Certainly, Buffett’s comments and potential actions will be watched carefully.

The U.S Federal Reserve has taken a wait and see approach to the Trump tariff implications. Calls for an immediate cut of the Federal Funds Rate have not caused Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to shift his cautious stance yet. The coming days could bring a different attitude from the Fed if equity markets and U.S Treasuries perform badly. In the meantime some central banks have said they might become more proactive – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its interest rate by 25 basis points this morning to 3.50% and said it will continue to cut their Official Cash Rate if tariff policies create more negativity.

The consideration by financial institutions regarding the beginning of a paradigm shift of the global economy is justified. However, the ramifications of the Trump tariff policies have a long way to go before these present days will be able to be pointed to as the moment the world decided that it no longer wants to participate in the U.S marketplace. That notion seems farfetched. The USD remains the world’s reserve currency, its corporations remain extraordinarily large and valuable, and U.S Treasuries as they absorb current volatility and see yields moving higher in the 30 Year bonds cannot be viewed as an economic apocalypse – yet. Yes, the warning signs are meaningful and the Trump White House will need to respond diligently.

Again, the past week of trading has seen vast disarray, but we have been here before. It is important to recognize that current circumstances however do remain dangerous, this because we are still in the midst of the crisis. At some point, egos will have to be put to the side. The Trump White House will have to negotiate with China. China may be vulnerable, but so is the U.S. Why be belligerent and show no respect to each other? The remainder of this week’s trading will produce more whipsaw results. Selling looks to be in vogue once again this morning. Behavioral sentiment and understanding its power need to be contemplated as folks await sunnier days.

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Trump: Will He or Won’t He Day and Uncertainty for Investors

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Trump: Will He or Won't He Day and Uncertainty for Investors

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EURUSD One Month Chart as of 2nd April 2025

Liberation/Tariff Day will blow onto the global financial shores this morning. President Trump and his team are certain to take a victory lap as they announce their decisions regarding actions being imposed on commodities and products. Nations who are on the other end of the drama will be braced for the rhetoric and policies. Investors, trade ministers, financial institutions will have to sift through the pronouncements and consider their outlooks amidst uncertainty.

Trading today will be rough for smaller speculators. Choppy conditions should be expected as behavioral sentiment twists according to shifting winds and interpretations. President Trump is likely to announce aggressive penalties, but he may also try to soothe those who have worried about being punished. As an example, Trump has said recently that India has acted upon many of the White House’s wishes. Mexico, Canada, the European Union and China are likely to be mentioned as the U.S President speaks later today. Will a public scolding take place again?

Equities have faltered the past month, Forex has been volatile and commodity prices have also reflected fragile sentiment as outlooks became grey. The tariff policies announced today will affect all aspects of the financial world. Day traders thinking about wagering on the outcome should be patient and wait for the reactions which unfold from Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Wall Street will certainly be a barometer, along with the EUR/USD, USD/MXN, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/SGD and gold.

While President Trump declares this is a great and magnificent day for the U.S, it will be of keen interest if an olive branch is offered to trading partners. After talking tough the past few months, financial institutions would like to hear words of optimism from the White House. If belligerence is heard and punitive actions are enacted, which are considered unproductive by investors and financial institutions the broad markets will show their disdain promptly.

President Trump’s skills as a negotiator will be judged today. The White House must play towards its constituency and show they are putting America First, but will the President also display he is cognizant that international trade provides benefits? Trump will point to his claim that he is merely putting tariffs on those who have treated the U.S unjustly and use levies against U.S goods.

It will be an important day for the Trump Presidency, because in many respects the global audience watching will decide whether or not the U.S sees itself as part of the global fabric or seeks a position which is isolationist. Brazil will look on the tariff theater intently, its position as a trading center may find increased demand from a host of nations.

Predicting the results: On the 3rd of February a fast and dangerous Forex market developed which witnessed USD centric strength exhibited with spikes in many currency pairs. In early March reactionary trading was displayed in equity indices, Forex and bonds too. Today will see wide spreads emerge in Forex with near-term resistance and support levels proving vulnerable.

Equities which sold off in March via the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 and the Russell index are certainly hoping for a dose of cheer. The question is if Trump will deliver a positive message. The likelihood is that today’s events will not be the last of the tariff tirades and some proposed actions remain under deliberation. Today is unlikely to produce final results and the broad markets are probably going to be choppy as outlooks stay mitigated and absent of clear resolutions.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 4th April 2025

Day traders should think safety first today. Gold remains within record territory. If unpredictability rules near-term and the reactions of investors and financial institutions create fast conditions, the precious metal and bonds will find takers. Uncertainty breeds cravings for risk adverse assets.

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Examination Time: Nasdaq 100 and Trump Behavioral Sentiment

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Examination Time: Nasdaq 100 and Trump Behavioral Sentiment

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Nasdaq 100 Six Month Chart as of 25th March

Near-term trading in the Nasdaq 100 will face an examination of behavioral sentiment today and the remainder of the week. The stock index finished yesterday’s trading around 20,180.44, essentially traversing near levels directly before the U.S election results were known on the 5th of November. When trading reopened on the 6th following Donald Trump’s victory, the Nasdaq 100 jumped higher and began its trading near the 20,560.00 vicinity.

On the 29th of October 2024, the Nasdaq 100 also tested the 20,560.00 ratio, before reversing lower and finding choppy conditions leading up to the election date. Behavioral sentiment was certainly a factor in the outcome of these results. It cannot be proven, but can be asked and guessed that financial institutions may have started to bet on a Donald Trump victory before the election. Big trading influences may have turned anxious in the immediate days preceding the vote, then after the results were known returned the Nasdaq 100 to highs seen the week before on the 29th of October. By the 7th of November the Nasdaq 100 was trading above 21,100.00 and this was likely a result of optimistic outlooks.

The ability to climb back above the 20,000.00 mark yesterday and sustain the level was important. Yes, if the mark fades and another downturn now occurs it will show financial institutions are still leaning into negative outlooks as they consider the implications of tariffs and potential knock-on effects from the unknown.

However, if financial institutions have decided that they have priced in maximum risk premium and the selloff of the Nasdaq 100 to the level of nearly 19,150.00 seen on the 11th of March, which tested ratios last seen in early September 2024, was extremely oversold. We then have evidence that yesterday’s results back to values seen on election day, set the table for an important examination of behavioral sentiment.

There is plenty of room to traverse from 20,180.44 to 20,560.00. Yet, if financial institutions have decided that they once again want to test optimistic mid and long-term outlooks, the price level of 20,560.00 is where they will likely aim. Day traders should not get overly ambitious and remain cautious while looking for upside momentum if that is their chosen direction.

U.S economic numbers will be light today. Tomorrow the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders data will be published, the results will be of interest because they will show manufacturing sentiment and the statistics are considered a leading indicator. Thursday will also be noteworthy because the Final GDP results will be brought forth, but because this data is based on quarterly factors, the data may not be as important as tomorrow’s opening act – the Core Durable Goods Orders.

While the economic data will be important, President Trump will remain the focus. Behavioral sentiment obviously is being swayed by the winds circulating from the White House. This is not going to change until financial institutions begin to believe the threat of rhetoric can be dismissed without fear. The 2nd of April is now being counted down and in the sights of financial institutions as they consider the implications and outcomes of tariff negotiations. The word ‘agreement’ is sought as a salve by financial institutions. Whether a soothing ointment will be provided remains unknown.

The near-term will provide a test for traders which may be quite a bit like the week before the U.S election from late October and into November 5th when the voting results were still being counted. The Nasdaq 100 has room to traverse upwards and test values from the 29th of October and after Donald Trump was elected President. The 2nd of April is next Wednesday, and trading up until then will reflect on the outlooks financial institutions have regarding tariff negotiations.

It is examination week. It is not a coincidence that the price levels of the Nasdaq 100 are treading water while waiting for impetus. Speculating on the outcome before the 2nd of April needs to be undertaken carefully. An important question each speculator (including financial institutions) taking this test must answer is this: How good is President Trump as a negotiator and will he be able to claim a victory on the 2nd of April?

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Predicting the Federal Reserve and President Trump’s Rhetoric

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Predicting the Federal Reserve and President Trump's Rhetoric

Financial institutions have grown accustomed to the rather fierce rhetoric from President Trump in the early days of his second term. Financial institutions have also become quite used to the recent overly cautious statements from the Federal Reserve. This Wednesday the Fed’s FOMC Statement will be delivered and there will be no change to the Federal Funds Rate. The current ‘main’ borrowing rate offered by the Fed is 4.50%.

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US Dollar Index Five Year Chart as of 18th March 2025

This Wednesday Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak about the recent CPI and PPI numbers which came in below expectations. This typically would be a good signal regarding weaker inflation. And Powell might also mention that energy prices in the U.S have started to erode. WTI Crude Oil is now trading in a sustained manner below the 70.00 USD threshold, and this will influence the potential of less inflation. It is a good development for the U.S and Federal Reserve.

However, Powell is unlikely to express the unease and anxiousness the Federal Reserve has regarding President Trump, this because the Fed certainly doesn’t want to get into an open confrontation with the White House.

The U.S Treasury is now being run Scott Bessent who was selected by President Trump. Bessent ran the Key Square Group and is well respected in financial circles, which includes vast experience in top financial institutions. Powell though perceived as pragmatic by many analysts, may not be within President Trump’s trusted inner circle like Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the former Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. Lutnick is perceived as a workhorse who get things done and is smart.

The Fed’s likely cautious FOMC Statement will not be enough to appease President Trump this week. While some may think Trump’s attention will be elsewhere, those who have come to understand Trump know his capability to react quickly to events should be taken seriously.

What will Bessent and Lutnick think about the Fed’s FOMC Statement and stance? Powell is not a trained economist, do Bessent and Lutnick trust Powell? One thing for certain is that Janet Yellen who served as the Fed Chairwoman before Powell, and the Treasury Secretary before Bessent is not part of the inner circle in the White House.

Powell’s loyalties may be questioned, and eyes should be kept on Trump later this week to see how the President responds to the rather cautious Federal Reserve. The Fed will certainly not want to say aloud it is waiting like everyone else regarding the effects of tariff negotiations and their implications. Powell wants to keep his job. Trump certainly wants lower interest rates. Bessent and Lutnick certainly want lower interest rates too, but like Powell these two may prove pragmatic and know inflation needs to erode further. The Treasury and Commerce secretaries may want to test chicken and egg questions. Will these two gentlemen push Trump to proactively push for lower interest rates in a louder fashion?

Day traders will have to wait to see how financial institutions react to tomorrow’s FOMC Statement – which has already been accepted as being a ‘no interest rate cut event’. And it is probably being discussed in the White House that the Fed may want to wait until early this summer – June? – to consider another interest rate cut. Which means the Fed may not be cutting interest rates mid-term, while the ECB and BoE may have to be more dovish and remain active via interest rate cuts if their economies continue to show recessionary trends.

Meaning that risk premium which was factored into the stronger USD centric buying since the Trump election on the 5th of November until the peaks in mid-January and early February, and have now reversed lower – needs to be watched technically and weighed in combination with behavioral sentiment.

Intriguingly the US Dollar Index is around levels it stood at on the 5th of November (Election Day 2024). It is also near values seen on the 15th of October. (Did financial institutions start to bet on a stronger USD around this time because of a more cautious Fed outlook and the potential Trump was going to win the election?) Raising the question, if financial institutions envision the USD can technically be weaker and attain values seen in late September and early October when the US Dollar Index was testing support levels which have held since April of 2022. The US Cash Index which stands around the 103.070 level now, was trading near 90.00 in the spring of 2021.

Trump wants lower interest rates, the Fed wants to wait on cutting the Federal Funds Rate until they have clarity regarding the results of tariff negotiations. There will be a collision between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump, the only question is when it will happen. The US Dollar Index has been lower historically. Trump, Bessent and Lutnick may not want to say it out loud, but a weaker USD in the global economy would help U.S exporters. A weaker USD may not convey the strong populist rhetoric of MAGA, but it may be economic hardware the Trump administration actually seeks. To sustain a weaker USD, inflation levels will have to erode, and interest rates will have to be lower (and another myriad of complex events have to happen), until then rhetoric and risk premium will factor into USD Forex trading for financial institutions and speculators.

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Stock Market Narrative and Looking for a Trump Silver Lining

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Stock Market Narrative and Looking for a Trump Silver Lining

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S&P 500 One Year Chart as of 14th March 2025

U.S stock markets have been hit on the nose in recent weeks, the major indices have put in rather consistent declines since the 19th of February, and the selling frenzy and particularly noise have grown worse since the start of March. Narrative regarding tariffs and a lack of clarity have certainly had a negative effect. The notion that there is a part of the media that wants to see a downturn in the markets and blame President Trump could also be factoring into concerns and fragile sentiment among indices participants. I am not blaming the media for the downturn, just pointing out that there are some entities which are not unhappy about the recent selling in the stock markets, this because it fits comfortably into their narratives.

While the bearish decline on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow 30 have all been easy to see, defining the dynamics of the downturn, and reactions from day traders and investors are complicated. The stock markets are not guaranteed to always go higher. This may sound naive, but people have gotten so used to the notion that U.S indices always go up that they forget about the potential for downturns. Yes, the stock markets have turned negative, but a one month decline is not uncommon historically. And some of the folks rooting against Donald Trump may want to take that into consideration.

Risk premium has certainly been factored into the markets which has influenced equities, but has created forceful moves in Forex too. Risk adverse tension because of persistent rhetoric about tariffs and their impact on behavioral sentiment cannot be discounted. However, the stock markets are still higher over the past year.

The Trump Effect is certainly being pointed at by many as the cause for the sudden downturn, but it should be remembered that all-time highs occurred after Trump won the election. Yes, the selloff has definitely happened too, and stock markets are now traversing values seen before the election. And support levels are being looked at with caution and more selling could lead to a test of psychological ratios which pressure market confidence further. Yet, it should also be remembered the S&P 500 at this time last year was around the 5,150 ratio compared to its current mark near 5,565.

Day traders have been hard pressed to find momentum with solid wagering opportunities, particularly if they have been in search of a bullish trend in recent weeks. The belief that U.S indices always go up eventually is a solid reference, but in the short-term can cause expensive losses for stubborn betters. Investors certainly have an easier time with stock indices if they practice the long-game and do not worry about the daily and monthly gyrations when their money is parked in indices. The use of leverage when betting on the daily results of stock markets can become ultra expensive for speculators, particularly when upside bias is being counted upon.

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 14th March 2015

Data this week from the U.S has actually been positive regarding lower inflation, both the CPI and PPI reports released the past two days has shown a slow down in costs. Yet, these results have little to do with President Trump, since he has only been in power less than two months. However, the lower WTI Crude Oil prices being achieved at this moment will start to factor into weaker inflation and will benefit the U.S economy.

The U.S Federal Reserve will have to be watched, because Fed officials seemingly continue to be among the crowd worried about tariff knock-on repercussions. But it should be remembered during Trump’s first term in office, there were tariff concerns too and inflation was tame. It will take a few months to still see results via inflation under this Trump administration, but if energy prices remain stable and low, this can mitigate circumstances while the tariff winds blow and their effects are waited upon. Interest rates from the Federal Reserve, U.S taxes on the public will continue to come under scrutiny. The likelihood of Trump and the Federal Reserve locking horns regarding interest rates seems to be a certainty in the coming months.

U.S stock markets have proven dangerous for bullish perspectives the past handful of weeks, but the viewpoint that markets have been too discounted will certainly start getting the attention of large players. U.S Treasury yields remain a barometer, but short-term results do not always correlate. Speculators without deep pockets may want to continue to watch from the sidelines.

Traders should also remember there is the ability to short U.S indices, but this brings up the healthy question about when will price support start to become a factor. It is nearly impossible to pick the precise moment financial assets will stage a turnaround for day traders, but history does indicate that bullish sentiment will start to be seen. Betting on a continued downturn could prove more expensive in the end, compared to speculating on upside.

Trading is not easy. It takes a lot of stamina to endure price movements that do not go according to plans. The financial markets are proving difficult for many. We are likely not out of the woods yet because clarity remains problematic, investors who have longer timeframes are likely anxious too. Price velocity needs to be given attention, markets can certainly go lower. However, at some juncture equities will start to look cheap to important long-term players. Behavioral sentiment among investors will likely also start to acclimate to the Trump Effect.