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Fantasy Football Drafts and Finding Key Undervalued Picks

Fantasy Football Drafts and Finding Key Undervalued Picks

Millions of fantasy football team managers will be picking their players this coming weekend and early next week as the NFL gets set to begin. The Detroit Lions will be visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on the 7th of September which will kick off the season. Real football is great, fantasy football, however, is enticing for many because it allows us as fans to ‘participate’ and show what we know, and sometimes unfortunately don’t know. And like day trading it can also cost money or make profits depending on the ability to select assets and use risk management wisely.

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Fantasy Football Drafts are Coming

Whether you are playing in a fantasy league that has ‘free’ drafts or need to price players per an allowable budget while selecting your team, you need to consider your options carefully. Many fantasy football leagues mandate rosters that include 15 picks. Over the past few years a growing emphasis has evolved around wide receivers as they have outscored running backs by a wide margin.

Top Tier Wide Receivers Compared to Other Positions

Finding solid wide receivers in the first two rounds of the draft is a tactic many players have started to use, then this is followed by choosing a running back or two to fill in these positions which are needed per your active weekly roster. Nowadays you want a running back who also can catch the ball, yards matter and a lot of them come after a pass has been caught.

Quarterbacks, as worthy as they are in the NFL and fantasy football, have become a commodity that many team managers wait on until the late fourth or fifth round to select. Fantasy football team managers need to remember the game is quantified via points on paper and is completely different than the game being played on the field. Your bias against a certain NFL team and the fact that you have a team you root for can often cause a lot of discomfort if you make your selections with these sentiments clouding your judgement.

Selecting positions and the round they are taken also depends on the amount of players in your league. The above is written with the notion that leagues are 10 teams. If you are participating in a league with 12 teams, then you can count on quarterbacks starting to disappear who are considered tier 1 players in the third round. Yes, you will also find fantasy managers who gamble and take a quarterback earlier. However, seldom do you see a qb taken in the first round.

Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are causing plenty of early selections and looks this year via mock drafts. But fantasy managers need to be careful and make sure they do not overpay by drafting the quarterbacks too high, and lose out on other key positions in which points are accumulated and can prove costly if you miss out on talent which provides needed active roster value.

A key spot on fantasy football rosters includes the ‘flex’ which allows for wide receivers, running backs or tight ends to be used in this ‘extra active’ position. Yes, some leagues allow for two quarterbacks to play at once also. Not to mention leagues that include defensive players, not including defensive teams. The point being that the flex position and the importance wide receivers have taken on often means wide receivers go fast and hard in fantasy football drafts because of their ability to accumulate value better than most running backs and tight ends.

Finishing Well Based on Undervalued Selections that Over Perform

Your decision in the later rounds are often more important than early selections. This is where you can begin to develop a team that finishes high among your friends and competitors. Deciding on your top tier players within positions is important but it is also crucial to decide on who you think is overvalued and who is undervalued. For instance, it has been noticed in mock drafts that the wide receiver Calvin Ridley is being taken suspiciously high by fantasy managers counting on Trevor Lawrence potentially making him a top receiver this season. Folks are counting on outlooks of what could be, instead of what has happened the past couple of years and this could prove dangerous. Lawrence will try to get the ball to him, but will Ridley be ready.

George Pickens of the Pittsburgh Steelers stands out. He is a second year wide receiver who has incredible talent and via many mock drafts seems to be lasting until the 7th round and sometimes even the 8th. The fact that Pickens plays with a second year quarterback who is not getting a lot of attention early either in Kenny Pickett is intriguing. Pickett in ten team mock drafts appears to be lasting until the last round in many cases, allowing for a potentially solid player to backup your tier 1 or 2 quarterback and to be replaced if your starter gets injured or have a bye week.

Does anyone want to go into what DeShaun Watson did last year after missing extensive playing time the past couple of years before? Real game speed takes a while to get used to even by veteran NFL players if they have been standing on the sidelines too long. Counting on players such as Calvin Ridley to immediately perform like a tier 2 wide receiver may prove to be wishful thinking. Yes, he is playing with a quarterback in Lawrence who has all-world talent, but Ridley will have to prove he is ready for prime-time. By the way, DeShaun Watson may prove to be undervalued as a quarterback, if he regains his form which seemingly vanished upon his return from a suspension last season as he struggled.

So what do you do in theory? Staying away from Calvin Ridley who seems to be a gamble in the 4th round and waiting on another wide receiver you believe will perform solidly, but can draft a little lower may be the route to go with more than a handful of players. Passing on tier 2 players and taking a player at another position who you believe will perform better is an option.

Fantasy football results are largely about fulfilling expectations among top players selected and finding hidden gems others have not considered in later rounds. Team managers also have to weigh positions via their point production expectations, and decide if it is better to overload on wide receivers for instance who are in the top 3 tiers, and then wait and gamble on questionable other positions consisting of second or third tier production which may be around later to select.

The same process needs to be used for drafting defenses and kickers. There are only a few difference makers on defense and among kickers who can be counted on to perform and deliver above average results and make them worth taking in higher rounds than normal. San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia and the New York Jets are considered top defensive selections by many. However, San Francisco may be gambled on earlier than expected, because their estimated point production may be above the remaining top tier 3 defense’s listed. Kickers work the same way via worthiness, only a few can reasonable be expected to outperform average results. Many kickers are taken in the last round for this reason.

Finding solid undervalued position players in the later rounds after your first five picks can change the outcome of fantasy football leagues. Production from the top selections is always important, but it is your skill level while drafting later that will likely determine your team’s overall performance.

Before you draft your team you should figure out how many wide receivers you want on your roster, a solid number would be to take 5, yes, out of your 15 player roster. This would allow for 3 running backs, two tight ends, two quarterbacks, 1 defensive team and 1 kicker, and then 1 streaming position which can be used to drop and add for players that have bye weeks and injuries that will certainly arise.

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Plenty of Data from the U.S and China Should be Anticipated

Plenty of Data from the U.S and China Should be Anticipated

As the last week of August trading gets ready to begin, day traders may be glad to put the past month behind. The BRICS Summit and Jackson Hole Symposium delivered soundbites as promised last week, but there were few surprises. Forex, equities and commodities have been supplying a bumpy road for a while and may continue to do so.

Behavioral sentiment in the broad markets remains fragile, this as short-term U.S Treasuries continue to allure institutional players looking for solid returns. Some well known market players continue to issue cautious words regarding U.S equities, but the three major indices are still near mid-term highs. We have yet to experience a blood curdling selloff in the U.S equity markets. This maybe producing choppy results for some day traders pursuing CFDs while betting against higher moves.

Which brings up the question, which quantified analysis do you want to act upon? While the major U.S indices are up, a lot of the market action in these indices are driven by the ‘top performers’ which have ‘floated the boat’ while many other stocks have not performed handsomely.

Retail traders who are wagering on daily fluctuations need to understand there is a vast difference between short-term speculative positions and long-term investments. Hence the reason day traders are reminded to only bet money on what can be lost without a great deal of discomfort. Speculation should only be done with a very limited amount of cash, because day trading never offers guaranteed profits.

The next handful of days will deliver plenty of important data. The question is how financial institutions will react as they weigh the coming results against their own sentiment and outlooks regarding mid-term interest rates via the U.S Federal Reserve’s rhetoric. Market nervousness remains on edge as more tranquil days are certainly sought via risk adverse financial decisions.

The cryptocurrency market should be watched carefully by participants within its volatile assets. Bitcoin continues to trade near the 26,000.00 level and this is considered important support by many. And Binance coin has failed to inspire a sustained upwards reversal as Binance exchange remains under legal and regulatory shadows.

Traders are also advised to note the U.S will be on holiday on the 4th of September, the coming long holiday weekend could spark rather dynamic market action Thursday and Friday as financial institutions trade in advance of Labor Day.

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AUD/USD One Year Chart as of 27th August 2023

Monday, 28th of August, Australia Retail Sales – the numbers will cause a reaction in the AUD/USD and the result is expected to be slightly better than last month’s outcome. The AUD/USD is near important long-term lows.

Tuesday, 29th of August, U.S Consumer Confidence via The Conference Board – the anticipated result is lower than last month’s reading. However, the past three months have done better than expected, which may put some analysts on edge before the publication.

Wednesday, 30th of August, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the inflation numbers are expected to match last month’s gain of 0.3%. The EUR/USD will react to the outcome with momentary volatility. German economic data has been a concern in the European Union for a handful of months.

Wednesday, 30th of August, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product and GDP Price Index – the numbers from the GDP reports will be watched by most financial institutions. Last month’s numbers surprised traders, this as growth remained quietly stubborn and inflation crept higher. The USD has been a powerhouse against the GBP and EUR recently. If these GDP reports surprise to the upside again, this could spark more buying of U.S Treasuries which could create additional strength in the USD.

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USD/CNY One Year Chart as of 27th August 2023

Thursday, 31st of August, China Manufacturing PMI – the results from the Purchasing Managers Index from China since April have been lackluster and showed weak export demand globally. Economic data from China has sparked concerns from international investors, and the USD/CNY has certainly received attention as it has risen steadily and is now challenging highs from late October and early November 2022.

Thursday, 31st of August, U.S Core PCE Price Index – the Personal Consumption Expenditures data is expected to match last month’s gain. This inflation data, and the GDP Price Index numbers from the day before will certainly get a reaction from financial institutions which would prefer to see no surprises higher.

Friday, 1st of September, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – as always these reports could shake market sentiment instantly. However it is the wages data which will likely be a focal point for investors. If wages can come under last month’s gain of 0.4%, this would be welcomed by investors and they may go into the long U.S holiday weekend a bit more calm regarding the Federal Reserve.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations for this Friday

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Considerations 25th August 2023

10. Behavioral Sentiment: Risk adverse conditions heightened again.

9. Book: Pioneering Portfolio Management by David F. Swenson.

8. Rugby: All Blacks vs. Springboks tonight at Twickenham.

7. Federal Reserve: Jackson Hole Symposium and Speeches.

6. Travel Tips: Stay away from Russian corporate jets with Wagner members flying aboard.

5. South Africa: What’s next after BRICS Summit, an end to loadshedding?

4. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Binance coin remain under pressure.

3. Germany data: Coming ifo Business Climate and GDP data.

2. U.S data: Yesterday’s mixed Durable Goods numbers.

1. USD: Another burst of strength yesterday.

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Cricketing Excellence: Factors Behind a Remarkable Evolution

Cricketing Excellence: Factors Behind a Remarkable Evolution

A recent article in a New York Times article, Studying the Limits of Human Perfection, Through Darts, analyzed how scores in darts, bowling and archery have improved over the past several years. This made me think about how the ability of cricketers has changed over time.

The New York Times article mentioned two things that stayed with me, “Athletes seem to get better, generation by generation.” “Today’s athletes may be more skilled than their predecessors. But they are often playing with better equipment or technology that can boost their scores.”

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Cricket has gone through a massive transformation in the past 2 decades. The dexterity of players has undergone a significant change over the past several years. Several key factors have contributed to this remarkable improvement, showcasing the sport’s continuous drive for excellence. Here, we delve into five pivotal elements that have fueled the improvement in cricketers’ abilities:

1. Bat Design and Balance:

The evolution of cricket bats has played a pivotal role in enhancing players’ performance. Modern bat design emphasizes a delicate balance between power and control. Technological advancements have led to the creation of lightweight yet powerful bats, enabling players to deliver explosive shots without compromising precision. The increased sweet spot and improved aerodynamics have revolutionized the game, empowering cricketers to achieve unprecedented batting feats.

2. Targeted Fitness and Training:

The shift towards a more scientific approach to fitness and training has been a game-changer. Cricketers today undergo rigorous training regimens that focus on specific skills, strength, agility, and endurance. Sport science, data analytics, and specialized coaching have combined to provide players with tailored routines that optimize their physical capabilities. This holistic approach ensures that players are not only physically fit, but also capable of sustaining high performance over extended periods.

3. Mindset:

The mental aspect of cricket cannot be underestimated. Players are now equipped with psychological tools to enhance their concentration, resilience, and decision-making under pressure. Mental conditioning has enabled cricketers to overcome challenges and thrive in demanding situations. The shift from a ‘fixed’ mindset to a ‘growth’ mindset has fostered a culture of continuous improvement and adaptability, contributing to enhanced performance on the field.

4. Larger Pool of Players:

The global expansion of franchise cricket has resulted in a more diverse and competitive talent pool. Furthermore, emerging cricketing nations have produced players with unique playing styles and strategies, enriching the sport’s overall dynamics. The influx of fresh talent has spurred healthy competition and pushed established players to refine their skills, contributing to an upward trajectory of comprehensive performance standards.

5. No Fear of Failure:

The modern cricketing landscape encourages players to embrace risk-taking and learn from failures. The removal of punitive consequences for innovative shot-making or aggressive strategies has paved the way for players to express themselves freely on the field. This change in approach has led to more exciting gameplay, with cricketers aiming for higher levels of performance without being burdened by the fear of making mistakes.

The exceptional progress in cricketers’ athletic abilities can be attributed to a convergence of factors. The symbiotic relationship between bat design, targeted fitness and training, a resilient mindset, an expanded talent pool, and an environment that welcomes risk-taking has propelled the sport to new heights. As cricket continues to evolve, these factors will likely continue to synergize, driving players to even greater achievements on the global stage.

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Fed Caught Again in Reactive Stance waiting for ‘Good’ News

Fed Caught Again in Reactive Stance waiting for 'Good' News

Let’s recall that about two and a half years ago the U.S Federal Reserve was still calling inflation transitory and claiming that price pressures would subside quickly as the onslaught of coronavirus decreased. Nearly all financial institutions could see the Fed was merely being stubborn, and that is a polite way of putting it, instead of being realistic.

It would be nice to give the Fed the benefit of the doubt now, and say the Fed have better information and know how to quantify the outlook of the U.S economy in a more dynamic fashion. However, being skeptical of the U.S Federal Reserve and its ability to miss signs plainly in front of them is a full time job for many analysts and it pays well.

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As said by many before, many members of the U.S Federal Reserve have the profound disadvantage of not having the experience of ‘skin in the game’. Many Fed officials have worked as paid bureaucrats their entire lives and have literally ‘studied’ their way to the top of the central banking world, without having firsthand knowledge regarding the daily chore of running businesses. Most Fed officials have no dirt under their fingernails.

The Fed is clamoring now to return the U.S inflation level to 2.0%, and there is a large amount of disagreement about how this number is interpreted via different economic gauges. The Federal Reserve has a poor track record as stated above for being able to know what is actually ahead. They have been very aggressive regarding raising interest rates the past year and a half, and now they are finding it difficult to say they are done. This tough talk could be an attempt by the Fed to create headwinds for those considering proclaiming the U.S central bank should become ‘dovish’ by speaking tough about potential pitfalls to come, this even though the Fed plainly missed dangerous road signs a few years ago which helped agitate the problems being dealt with at this moment.

What could go wrong you ask? A credit crunch for banks and consumers.

However, business people know all about potential crisis if they have enough experience. Paying employees wages, finding additional good employees, landing a space that charges a reasonable amount for rent, hoping taxes remain sane, and hoping your shop is not shoplifted into poverty are some obstacles business owners face nowadays in the U.S. The rising costs of wholesale prices has not completely disappeared, but things may be getting better via economic data. Maybe this will be proven wishful thinking, but outlook is important and should be considered.

The rising costs of doing business is then passed along to consumers. The Federal Reserve seemingly doesn’t understand that it has made it more expensive to accomplish positive business results for small owners of enterprise in the U.S, and the Fed seems to forget that over 44% of the American economy is powered by what can be called family owned companies. The Fed certainly doesn’t mention that it is hard enough for small U.S business to survive over the long haul, with a number of nearly 65% becoming failures after ten years statistically.

So while the Federal Reserve talks a great game about managing interest rates via their monetary policy and the Federal Funds Rate, they often forget about the problem small business owners face. Having said that, the higher interest rates the Fed has sparked because of its slow reaction to what they perceived as transitory inflation two years ago – is having a bad effect on bigger businesses too. This because big corporations no longer enjoy ‘free money’ from their banks. Money has become harder to attain.

Once again it has been proven that everyone looks like a genius when the U.S economy is sailing smoothly, but when obstacles develop and people have to quantify solutions to real problems, suddenly it is harder to produce profitable results. The U.S government has created massive deficits by using huge amounts of cash stimulus to protect economic growth in the U.S over the past five years. In fact because of the quantitative easing after the financial crisis of 2007, it can be argued the U.S has used stimulus for more than 15 years to make sure the U.S economy is ‘stable’. Politicians like to keep their jobs because there is little else they can do in the real world.

The Federal Reserve by increasing the Federal Funds Rate has made U.S Treasuries a feeding frenzy and yields have increased substantially. The higher rates of interest the U.S government will have to pay down the road on existing U.S Treasuries is not a small problem mathematically. However, for the time being the Federal Reserve and U.S government seem to be less concerned about what they are potentially putting on the shoulders of future generations of U.S citizens, and trying to keep the U.S population tranquil. Luckily for many American homeowners, U.S mortgages are still mostly being paid out via the lower interest rate amounts agreed upon a couple of years ago and beyond. New home sales and existing home sales are sputtering in the U.S, because many people do not want to pay the higher interest rates that now need to be signed upon for mortgages and paid.

What the U.S Federal Reserve needs to do is to state publicly that it is not going to raise interest rates over the mid-term, and that it is going to allow the free market to work itself out via enterprise with supply and demand ratios taking center stage and being allowed to work. And lastly, that if inflation conditions as expected continue to improve by decreasing, that the Federal Reserve will consider lowering interest rates in the first part of 2024.

However, the Federal Reserve is worried that if it does sound too positive, businesses will start to gamble on a better outlook and this will raise existing inflation which has been stubborn. But again, the Federal Reserve often doesn’t understand how smaller U.S businesses work. To get out of the current economic mess the U.S Federal Reserve needs to be pro-active and not reactive. Also, the ‘ruling’ U.S government has to cut back on stimulus programs with promises of a ‘free lunch’ for all and return to looking at numbers realistically. Fiscal responsibility is an idea that can actually be practiced.

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Dangerous and Unpredictable Duties During the Vietnam War

Dangerous and Unpredictable Duties During the Vietnam War

Book Corner: Policing Saigon, written by Loren Christensen.

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War stories have always fascinated the public, ranging from Erich Maria Remarque’s

World War One novel All Quiet on the Western Front, to Alistair MacLean’s World War Two thriller The Guns of Navarone, up to the more recent American Sniper,

Chris Kyle’s autobiography of his combat experience in Iraq. Ex-cop and noted martial artist Loren Christensen throws his hat into the ring with Policing Saigon, the story of his

year as a military policeman patrolling the capital city of South Vietnam during the Vietnam War. Told mostly as a series of vignettes, Policing Saigon is at times dark-humored, shocking, sad, grisly, and even touching. (A note about terminology – in 1975 Saigon was renamed Ho Chi Minh City, and in 1976 South Vietnam merged with North Vietnam to become simply Vietnam.)

A cop in Portland, Oregon for 25 years, and a karate practitioner since his teens, Christensen is known mostly for a series of well-regarded policing and martial arts books. In Policing Saigon, he tells his story slowly and methodically. Growing up in suburban Washington state, his goal in college in the late 60’s was to break into radio and theater. Christensen took the initiative of enlisting, viewing the military police as an experience to draw upon for the acting world and incorrectly thinking that MP volunteers don’t receive overseas assignments (he notes that he was lied to by the recruiter).

After basic training, Christensen went through the range of military police courses such as language school and dog training. But after landing in Saigon in 1969, the 23-year old quickly realized that he was unprepared for the tough and thankless job. The MPs worked 12-hour shifts, seven days a week that often went hours into overtime in a sprawling, stifling hot and dirty city, hit hard by the war. The roads were clogged with haphazard and unregulated traffic that resulted in frequent accidents, some of which Christensen witnessed and some in which he was involved. The city was known for wretched poverty and was full of beggars, often children forced by their parents. The pollution was so severe – and the humidity was so brutal – that he developed both respiratory and fungal infections that took months into his discharge to heal.

The job was dangerous and unpredictable. The military police were hated by everyone, especially by those that were sympathetic to the Vietcong. The hate extended even to American GIs, since the MPs were often called in to arrest violent and drunken soldiers letting off steam on leave from the jungle. Christensen and his partners were also frequently called in to arrest AWOL (absent without leave) GIs, who flocked to Saigon in staggering numbers. He writes that in his tenure the number of AWOL soldiers never dipped below eighteen hundred. The American soldiers did not always go quietly and often resisted arrest, sometimes turning the scene into a brawling and bloody mess where the MPs needed backup.

As Christensen writes, the military police were also sitting ducks for all forms of terror, the perpetrators of which were impossible to catch. Snipers were liable to pick at them from nearby rooftops or windows, or bombs could be placed quickly and inconspicuously inside the military jeeps – even by children. Their job sometimes had them chasing thieves down dangerous, narrow, and winding alleys, frazzling their nerves and keeping them on edge. Even worse, as he writes, off-duty MPs were often unable to truly relax. Nighttime brought the sounds of artillery from the war’s front lines, serving as an uneasy and troubling background noise. Other MPs reacted to the stress of the war and their job in a number of ways. One of his early roommates casually kept a live python in a locker, mere meters from Christensen’s bed. Another inexplicably began shooting from the MP barrack’s balcony towards a truck transporting America’s allies, the South Vietnamese soldiers.

Crime against the American soldiers was rampant. Christensen writes that gangs of local thieves devised creative ways to steal from the American supply trucks, fueling the black market. Riding on motorbikes behind and alongside the trucks, they performed gravity-defying gymnastics while in motion as they would grab merchandise off the vehicle and speed off before unsuspecting driver realized what happened. Other crimes involved hookers. Sex-starved soldiers on leave would follow a hooker down an alley for a quick hookup and would instead be robbed. Others would actually engage in the act in the hooker’s room, while under the bed an unseen partner-in-crime (sometimes the girl’s mother) would reach out and pluck a few bills from the unsuspecting soldier’s wallet.

There are touching moments in the book, if one can call it that. Christensen isn’t a touchy-feely guy and his descriptions of these interactions come across as matter-of-fact and straight-forward. He writes of his admiration for the mainstream Saigon residents, mostly decent people trying hard to eke out a living. He notes their survivors’ mentality, and describes as they shrug off hardships and get back on their feet. In another chapter, he writes of meeting a group of cute Vietnamese kids, friendly and smiling to the MPs. But they were basically homeless street urchins living a hard life, sadly sleeping in a nearby cemetery. He writes of saying goodbye to his parents before shipping out to the army, facing an unknown future. And in one of the book’s most touching moments, he writes of his homecoming a year later, sitting quietly in his childhood room, the horrors of the war behind him.

Christensen was discharged in mid-1970 and less than 48 hours later was back home, a transition that was so fast it was jarring. He writes of his difficulty in adjusting to civilian life, suffering from PTSD until the return to martial arts would quiet his soul. He would later draw upon his MP experience for his police career, viewing it at five years’ experience combined into one year. A brown belt in karate at the time of his service, he realized that a more realistic and practical street-fighting style was needed, which he later taught privately and also to the police and military.

Christensen would be the first to admit that this not a book of heroics. This is not Band of Brothers or The Sands of Iwo Jima. But he took his job and his service in an unpopular war very seriously. The book clocks in at over 300 pages but his stories will hook you in. A worthwhile and moving read.

If you want to read another Book Corner article, please visit this review by Evan Rothfeld: https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/ten-more-ok-now-twenty-finish-thirty-next-run-the-hill.

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Dog Days of Summer and a Return of Calm as Storms Threaten

Dog Days of Summer and a Return of Calm as Storms Threaten

With essentially two full weeks of trading until the end of August and the unofficial end of summer in sight, perhaps this week may be a good time for retail traders to be observers if they do not have the stomach for potentially noisy speeches and markets.

However, speculators who can block out media hyperbole and microphone soundbites from folks standing on podiums may find conditions rather attractive. As always outlook depends on perspective, time frames and managing risk. Behavioral sentiment has been rather chaotic the past month and some traders may suspect we are approaching the end of the loud spectacles of nervous drama in the markets.

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USD/ZAR One Year Chart as of 20th August 2023

The economic data this coming week should prove to be a rather mild schedule, but outside influences will certainly get publicity and get fanfare from talking heads who want 15 minutes of your attention. The BRICS Summit will get underway in Johannesburg, South Africa officially on the 22nd. Another big conference later this week will be the U.S Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Both events will produce plenty of conversations about inflation, economic stability and a more cohesive global cooperation monetarily. This will also create many raised eyebrows among traders who are skeptical about these type of events.

While leaders of China, Russia, India, Brasil and South Africa get together in Johannesburg, it is likely we will hear talk about potential BRICS expansion and the pursuit of a new unified currency which doesn’t rely upon the USD. However, in the background there is likely to be plenty of distraction because of China’s faltering economic data and Russia’s Ruble which has been impacted severely in the past month. Plenty of large rugs will be needed to hide the dust which threatens to make this BRICS event rather memorable.

Add the ongoing saga of Niger and the absence of a political solution for the world’s fourth largest producer of uranium as a potential flash point standing on the side of the stage waiting to make an appearance regarding Africa news. Perhaps it is too cynical to wonder if coordinated military action within Niger will await the end of the BRICS Summit. This so China and Russia are not given an opportunity on the ‘world stage’ as a united voice to offer their opinions regarding an intervention.

The Jackson Hole get together of global central bankers from the Fed, BoE, ECB, BoJ and others will certainly grab headlines late this week, but the script is mostly known regarding the rhetoric to come from the Federal Reserve’s annual event. Forex may move based on comments from the central bank chiefs as they speak towards the end of this week, but it is unlikely anything surprising is going to be heard. U.S Treasuries will remain a topic because of the ability to lock in a solid return over the mid-term compared to betting on the outcomes of the stock market, but this scenario has been playing out the past month. Investors should prepare for a long line of speeches regarding economic outlooks from central bank officials all week. Day traders should also remember that the chatter starts to be ‘tuned out’ as the speeches grow longer.

Traders looking for other outside influences may want to look at the cryptocurrency market where major assets have shown signs of struggling. Bitcoin and Binance coin could remain in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, if their prices continue to challenge important support levels and become more vulnerable.

Monday, 21st August, China Prime Rates – economic data from the nation has caused concerns that real estate problems are spilling over into the domestic consumer market. The interest rates China lends money to consumers is expected to be lowered to try and spark spending. Recent economic reports from China have been bad, and readers who believe this is merely ‘Western’ bias being reported should be careful to look for other sources to confirm data. Investment within the second biggest economy of the world has become tentative, because there is a fear the ‘official’ China numbers may be worse than those being reported.

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USD/JPY Six Months Chart as of 20th August 2023

Tuesday, 22nd August, Japan Consumer Price Index – the Bank of Japan report is expected to show a slight decline to the inflation numbers. Last month’s outcome of 3.0% is expected to lower and produce a 2.9% result. The USD/JPY could react momentarily to the outcome, the currency pair is near highs it hasn’t touched since November 2022.

Tuesday, 22nd August, U.S Existing Home Sales – the data is expected to show a slight decline of purchases. Mortgage prices continue to climb in the U.S and homeowners are less likely to desire taking on a new higher mortgage, this if they already have a lower mortgage locked in from a few years ago within a dwelling they already live.

Wednesday, 23rd August, Flash European Manufacturing and Services PMI – the reports will come from the E.U and U.K. The German and British outcomes will stir the Forex markets. The manufacturing data from Germany and Britain are forecast to be slightly negative.

Wednesday, 23rd of August, U.S Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the U.S reports are expected to show a decline in the manufacturing sector. If a negative result materializes, this could actually spark a selloff of the USD – if the financial markets have returned to calm waters by the middle of this week. Weaker numbers might be interpreted as another reason for the U.S Federal Reserve to remain neutral and why they should consider becoming dovish over the mid-term.

Thursday, 24th of August, U.S Durable Goods Orders – the core and broad numbers are anticipated to show declines. If the Durable Goods Orders numbers are worse than expected this could spark more USD selling, particularly if financial institutions are already calm and feel the data is another step to ‘lowering’ the Fed’s hawkish interest rate rhetoric. However, for the USD to weaken the markets will likely have needed to be tranquil beforehand, without major surprises having happened earlier in the week that may have escalated nervous behavioral sentiment in the broad markets.

Friday, 25th of August, Germany Business Climate and GDP – the ifo Business Climate report comes from a composite of manufacturers, wholesalers, and other enterprises and is expected to be lower than last month’s outcome. The Gross Domestic Product results are anticipated to show no changes, which would mean Germany’s economy remains in the doldrums and is flirting with recessionary pressures.

Friday, 25th of August, U.S University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – this revised reading is expected to show U.S consumers remain steady without significant changes compared to the previous outcome.

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Alert: Important Support in View for Binance Coin Traders

Alert: Important Support in View for Binance Coin Traders

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BNB/USD One Year Chart as of 17th August 2023

Important support for BNB/USD is now being battled. The price of Binance coin is near a key inflection value of 230.00 USD. The digital asset world including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has taken on stronger selling recently. Legal issues surrounding Binance have not gone away, nor will they. If Binance starts to show stronger price velocity lower it could spook the broad cryptocurrency market in a large manner. Binance is still the biggest crypto exchange in the world, even as it has come under the investigative pressures of the U.S and some European nations.

Traders should pay attention to ‘stablecoins’ as a barometer of behavioral sentiment in the cryptocurrency landscape. Tether should be watched closely. If USDT sustains value below the 1.00000 USD level for more than a couple of days this would be a negative signal that ‘players’ in the cryptocurrency world are getting more nervous.

Bitcoin is also seeing steady selling early this morning and the price of BTC/USD is near 28,550.00 as of this writing. If BTC/USD were to break below the 28,000.00 this could also add to fear and noise in the cryptocurrency world.

The next seemingly important level for BNB/USD below is around the 225.00 USD mark if tested, if this level proved vulnerable and trading momentum continued downward stronger selling could develop if panic erupts surrounding Binance coin. Traders should be very careful in the cryptocurrency trading environment right now. Legal shadows hovering over Binance have existed for a long-time, and if selling pressure were to mount and values are suddenly tested from June of last year when the 200.00 BNB/USD level was last tested (this as FTX collapsed) this would clearly not be a good signal.

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Day and Institutional Traders Suffering Nervous Conditions

Day and Institutional Traders Suffering Nervous Conditions

Market price action has caused quite a few interesting interpretations of the prices being demonstrated in Forex, gold and equity markets recently. The USD/INR is now at record heights, the USD/ZAR is back above 19.00000 and the USD/BRL is again near the 5.0000 ratio.

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USD/INR One Month Chart as of 16th August 2023

While Forex traders around the world look for clues as to why their local currencies are suffering and are likely blaming domestic policy from their own governments and central banks, they should remember the larger global financial markets tend to move in a unified sphere. Domestic concerns are a real cause for market action often, but when global sentiment becomes nervous the larger force of institutional financial houses shake the ground.

Correlations exists worldwide because of behavioral sentiment ruling outlooks over the near, mid and long-term in the marketplace. While we like to put our faith in the financial markets as an all knowing entity, this is far from the truth. Humans who react to nervous conditions and also have bias are the ones still making decisions in financial houses, they are the ones giving orders to their programmers via their trading software which is largely geared to follow perceived trends these institutions deem important.

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USD/ZAR One Month Chart as of 16th August 2023

Most financial institutions are not speculative in nature, day and even longer term retail traders should remember this point. Most institutions are trying very hard not to ‘speculate’, they are simply positioning per their outlooks based on their understanding of the trading landscape. Whispers of potential downgrades from U.S rating agencies on larger corporate banks yesterday sent a shudder through the broad markets, economic data and rumors swirling about China are not helping either. The current volatility in the broad markets is not welcomed warmly by financial institutions.

When price velocity accelerates and volatility flourishes in highly charged trading situations, this suggests financial institutions are nervous and not able to find comfortable positions. Conflicting ‘opposite’ positions from other larger players are causing market chaos in Forex, equities and other financial assets. There is a herd mentality in trading and when the herd doesn’t march in an unified direction chaos happens.

Most institutional players want calm, they want tranquil trading conditions so they can manage their clients’ money quietly. Bonds, equities and indices, real estate holdings via REITs, and gold make up a large part of their holdings.

Most U.S pension funds for instance have mandates to be positioned into a large amount of quiet investment vehicles which do not trade with wild price ranges. They seek steady returns from their institutional investors that can be counted on in a quantitative manner to demonstrate to their clients.

Large financial institutions are allowed sometimes to trade 2 to 4% of their holdings in different categories of speculative investments – such as start-ups, allocate cash to hedge funds they trust, small cap stocks they might know about, etc., depending on the exact mandates agreed upon.

Yes, hedge fund managers like Bill Ackman and investor Michael Burry get a lot of attention when they bet against the markets, but believe it or not they are small fish in a large ocean a lot of the time. They are good at what they do, but their speculative positions cannot be mirrored by most financial institutions or small day traders.

Ackman and Burry may be trading billions, but remember institutional financial companies including pension funds when combined total approximately 80% of market cap. Institutional trading decisions can cause massive waves in the financial world, but they actually seek calm seas.

When markets become volatile this often means institutional traders are not comfortable and their behavioral sentiment is fragile. Forex for example is often affected by financial institutions moving money as they handle export and import transactions for companies, but transactions are often done to buy and sell equities too. The Bank of International Settlements estimated an average around 7.5 trillion USD in value was traded in Forex everyday in 2022.

Day traders should not take it personally when the markets move against them, instead they should look to try and mirror the sentiment of larger financial movers. However, knowing and timing financial institution decisions is elusive because short term compared to long term considerations are often different.

Most traders are merely betting on the price action the large institutional funds are undertaking via the direction of the marketplace. Day trading for most retail speculators remains dangerous. A solid fundamental understanding of market ‘forces’ can allow smaller traders to feel more comfortable.

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Nervous Trading Results End of Last Week Serve as Caution

Nervous Trading Results End of Last Week Serve as Caution

The end of last week saw mixed U.S inflation data and lingering nervous sentiment regarding outlooks about U.S Treasuries, create rather choppy conditions for day traders. Economic data this week should be more calm because there appears to be less significant risk events on the horizon. Financial institutions finished Friday within a USD buying mode, a bearish gold trend, and U.S stock indices declining – highlighting fragile conditions remain evident among larger market players.

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NZD/USD Six Months Chart as of 13th August 2023

Monday, 14th of August, New Zealand Business Services Index – this report may turn out to be the highlight of the day for some traders. The NZD/USD which will start tomorrow near values last seen in the middle of November of 2022, may find interested speculators glancing at the report. But the NZD is moving largely under a USD centric driven market, like most of the broad Forex market. Mid and long-term technical support levels are certainly in focus, and they have proven vulnerable recently as the NZD/USD trends lower.

Tuesday, 15th of August, China Industrial Production – economic data from the nation has been troubling regarding deflation. However, traders who lean towards a ‘Western’ bias should remember to keep their perspectives realistic, because weaker China economic results mean the global economy is struggling too. A slight decline in Industrial Production is expected. Weaker than expected numbers from China could indicate ‘soft’ demand via export partners.

As an aside financial institutions will keep their eyes on the China real estate market too, this as whispers about ‘Country Garden Services Holdings’ funding problems remain a talking point and potentially escalate. Values of properties are suffering from declines too in China and this is hurting the domestic economy.

Tuesday, 15th of August, U.S Retail Sales – a slight gain in spending by U.S consumers is expected to be seen. If the number can meet the anticipated gain of 0.4% the result may not spark too much volatility. If for some reason a higher outcome is produced, this could spark some concerns about U.S Federal Reserve rhetoric. Although it may seem counter-intuitive to some traders, a weaker number could help ignite some bearish selling of the USD.

Wednesday, 16th of August, New Zealand Official Bank Rate – the interest rate policy from the RBNZ is expected to remain in place. Although it should be noted both New Zealand and Australia have almost made it a habit to surprise investors over the past few months.

Wednesday, 16th of August, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the report will be studied for clues regarding outlook. However, the Fed has a well-practiced ability to maintain tight lips and not disclose too much internal thinking, particularly when it comes to disagreement regarding policy – which is seemingly escalating in the Federal Reserve.

Thursday, 17th of August, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing PMI – in what has likely been a quiet week of data leading up to these reports, some analysts may try to get the attention of their clients regarding these results to create ‘noise’, but unless there is a strong miss the data is likely to simply be digested quietly into the broad marketplace.

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GBP/USD One Week Chart as of 13th August 2023

Friday, 18th of August, U.K Retail Sales – last week’s better than expected GDP numbers from Britain will make the outcome of this consumer data rather intriguing. The GBP/USD could find some impetus from the results. The estimate is calling for a decline of minus -0.4% compared to last month’s gain of 0.7%. The GBP/USD which went into last weekend near lows will likely find plenty of attentive traders as this new week comes to a close.

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Trading Tips: Perspectives and Gaining Behavioral Sentiment

Trading Tips: Perspectives and Gaining Behavioral Sentiment

Data is everywhere. AI has helped increase the level of information accessible to day traders. However, the quality of the information and its insights remains questionable – suspect. Systems relying on technical, fundamentals, algos, and the magic word ‘quants’ are tools which can help a person make their decisions. Unfortunately they do not guarantee you are going to make money.

Profitable results in trading remain difficult to attain. Day traders – speculators – continue to look for a golden goose. Something or someone who can deliver profits on a steady basis remains hard to find. This article is to help you gain perspective, it is a trading tip. There are no secrets of the temple coming, but it may be time you stop looking for secrets which do not exist.

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Nasdaq Composite Six Months Chart as of 12th August 2023

Trying to look forward and gaining genuine insights remains tough. Technical charts, fundamentals, opinions from experts all remain problematic to actually use in real time. The markets in a sense are alive, the environment is constantly changing. The moment information is shared it becomes old. Time and price action move fast. You can slow down the ‘game of trading’ by using different perspectives and practicing new ways to consider the dynamic values that are in flux that you are witnessing.

Behavioral sentiment – insights – regarding what the largest traders are going to do in the short, mid and long-term would be relevant. Understanding the asset you want to trade is important, understanding the inclination of the marketplace, price action – velocity – and timeframes of potential volatility is crucial. A key component would be to find a way to time a trade knowing what direction an asset is going to move.

This remains elusive for nearly all traders.

Again, this particular article is not going to solve this problem for you. It is to acknowledge the problem exists. We can have all the data in the world, past performances statistics, know what the markets are predicted to do, but the ‘game’ still needs to be played. Over 90% of day traders loss their money and eventually give up. Traders wagering on the markets need a way to put the odds of success in their favor. Folks may wonder why angrymetatraders.com writes about fantasy sports within its culture/ sports topics, it is because there is a correlation to sports and financial markets for speculators.

Day traders in many ways are not really participating in the marketplace, they are betting on the outcome of the results. The tiny trades of the majority of retail speculators are not affecting price action, sometimes the trades aren’t even being put into the real market – they are being traded virtually. Read about the topic B book trading within our articles if you have time.

Like sports gamblers who are not playing in the game, speculators are using their perceived knowledge of financial assets and past results to bet on future outcomes. A key ingredient to having successful trades that work in the financial markets is to have solid knowledge and a sense of what can develop as assets trade on a particular day. There are complexities within each sector, like every game being played in a variety of sports.

Gamblers not only bet on the outcome of the game, they also bet on the outcome of different components within the ‘contest’ – player stats, halftime scores, turnovers. Traders can do the same thing by speculating on an asset over different timeframes, and they can sometimes trade what are known as ‘options’ too, this to hedge on their positions or sometimes simply wager on their belief that a Forex pair or a share (stock) price is going to move in different ways during a certain period of time.

Understanding behavioral sentiment is important. The meshing of technical interpretation with fundamental data, and the way it affects perception and the tendencies of potential decisions to be made regarding outcomes is not easy. However, grasping the outlook of other financial market participants can improve a day traders results, if they put effort into perspectives and apply this to their risk taking tactics.

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USD/INR: Higher Move Correlates and Political Shadows Loom

USD/INR: Higher Move Correlates and Political Shadows Loom

The USD/INR is near the 82.8150 ratio as of this writing the 9th of August, on the 25th of July the currency pair was near the 81.6500 level momentarily. Upwards movement of the USD/INR did produce price volatility in the last week of July, and on the 1st of August the Forex pair was near the 82.1700 ratio. Another dose of upwards momentum quickly occurred on the first day of August, and by the 2nd the USD/INR was trading around the 82.7650 mark.

From Wednesday of last week the USD/INR has essentially taken on a consolidated framework, speculators who are gambling on the USD/INR and need big movement to occur in order to facilitate profits have likely found the currency pair difficult to manage. Yesterday a high of nearly 82.9500 came within sight briefly, this as global risk adverse conditions arose because of the Moody’s rating agency downgrade of some U.S mid and small size banks regarding their fundamental ‘soundness’ and credit worthiness.

Rising interest rates from the U.S Federal Reserve have made it harder for many U.S banks to conduct their business, and loans have become more expensive for their clients struggling to keep up with the rising payments. Particularly if borrowers have the unfortunate position of holding ‘variable’ loans which cost more when interest rates are going up. This has also affected the housing sector in the U.S and in the U.K, as mortgages have become highly priced due to the Federal Reserve and Bank of England having aggressive interest rate policies which are affecting the cost of new home purchases.

The question USD/INR traders may be asking is what does this have to do with them?

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USD/INR One Month Chart as of 9th of August

The USD/INR Doesn’t Trade in a Vacuum

The USD/INR has risen in value the past two and half weeks as many other major currency pairs have suffered a similar fate. Nervous sentiment abounds in the global markets because financial institutions are wary of what the major central banks will do next. U.S economic data has been mixed recently, but this perspective depends on time frames regarding outlooks.

Short and mid-term viewpoints continue to point to complications regarding growth and inflation expectations and interpretations of U.S data. The ratings downgrade of some U.S banks from Moody’s yesterday, and early last week Fitch’s downgrade of U.S Treasuries all is related. Rating agencies are getting nervous, perhaps because they do not want to be blamed and held liable if the proverbial ‘fluff’ hits the fan over the mid-term. Rating agencies largely ‘missed’ the financial crisis of 2007 in a famously bizarre manner. The sudden emergence of rating agencies warning investors has made the USD stronger as global investors have become risk adverse temporarily. Yes, this might feel illogical, but the USD remains the world’s safe haven.

The USD/INR also certainly trades because of economic conditions affecting its value from within India. The Reserve Bank of India has a large hand in managing values and is known to be rather active regarding interventions. Yet the USD/INR is being ‘allowed’ to continue to trade near all-time highs. This as India’s status as a growing economic power has taken shape in the global financial markets the past year. The India government has not been aggressive regarding its interest rate policy, and has allowed inflation to seep into the domestic economy via a weaker Indian Rupee for a number of complex reasons. Purchasing goods from India abroad and the ability to invest in India by global financial institutions may be more attractive to those holding USD and needing to convert into INR only when the time is necessary.

Politics and the USD/INR Price Level as 2024 Elections Start to Lurk

From a political perspective too, let’s acknowledge a general election will take place in India in April and May of 2024. Economic decisions being made today and for the mid-term are certainly being affected by the ruling Indian government’s outlook and desire to remain in power. Having come off of yesterday’s highs in the USD/INR the currency pair does remain within sight of highs.

The 83.0000 level likely remains a key barometer for the USD/INR and the Reserve Bank of India is likely watching this value carefully. While it seems unlikely the India government wants the USD/INR to trace much higher because of the psychological implications, global risk adverse sentiment are making the higher values of the currency pair sticky. Tomorrow’s inflation data from the U.S will affect Forex and the USD/INR via the Consumer Price Index. Friday the U.S Producer Price Index will be published. A slight rise in the broad CPI results tomorrow is expected, while Friday’s PPI outcome is expected to match last month’s numbers.

If risk adverse trading remains evident today and the USD/INR holds its ground over the next 20 hours, the currency pair could find that its consolidated price movement from the past week suddenly changes. A higher tick in U.S inflation could be enough to cause the USD/INR to challenge the 83.0000 ratio. Speculators who are wagering on the USD/INR are cautioned to be pro-active regarding their risk management the remainder of this week.