postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Notions for the 30th of August 2024

postR196

10. Ellis Park, Johannesburg: The Springboks will face the All Blacks on Saturday in round three of the Rugby Championship. One of the greatest rivalries in sports will match South Africa who is looking to cement their current team’s legacy as one of the best rugby squads ever, versus New Zealand who is looking for revenge having lost to the Springboks in the World Cup Final in October 2023.

9. Labor Day: Short-term speculators should be mindful that today’s volumes may be thin due to U.S financial institutions allowing employees to leave early for a long weekend. While all the major U.S exchanges will be operating, transaction volumes will become lackluster as the day progresses with the last U.S summer holiday approaching.

8. Precious Future: Gold is traversing around 2,520.00 USD per ounce this morning, as Bitcoin is near 59,500 USD as of this writing. The precious metal was around 2,000.00 much of February, while Bitcoin began flirting with 59,000 and 60,000 in late February after starting that month near 43,000 USD. While influencers proclaim the future is digital with Bitcoin, Gold continues to shine and has a historical track record as a store of value.

7. Pavel Durov: The CEO of Telegram was released on Wednesday after posting 5 million EUR as bail, he must stay in France and faces a handful of charges. Russia, the UAE and high profile people, including Elon Musk, have publicly criticized France for Durov’s arrest last Saturday. Free speech advocates are largely against the arrest of Durov, while France contends Durov has not been forthcoming about data which has been shared on Telegram to conduct criminal enterprises. Julian Assange was arrested in 2019 in Britain and was only released in June of this year, promptly leaving for Australia.

6. Commodities: The price of WTI Crude Oil is near 76.00 USD and remains in a fairly stable range, Cocoa remains within sight of 9,000.00 as it trades around 8,950.00 this morning. And the prices for Coffee via Robusta and Arabica continue to flirt with apex highs. Day trading wagers on these commodities should be done carefully before the U.S holiday.

5. Art of Speaking: Kamala Harris is being criticized for her reliance on teleprompters as some pundits wonder loudly when she will sit for an unscripted interview. Donald Trump faces continued scrutiny for speaking extemporaneously, and everyone knows this characteristic is not going to change. The race for the White House appears tight. The televised debate between the candidates remains on the schedule for the 10th of September and its format may present the opportunity for verbal fireworks.

4. Eastern Europe: The Russian-Ukrainian war has been escalating the past few weeks as both sides appear to be working with the belief they need to create facts on the ground over the next few months. The potential of a victory by Donald Trump in the U.S may be pushing Russia and the Ukraine into a mode which hopes they can bolster their respective negotiating positions, this if the newly elected U.S President can get the warring sides to discuss an endgame.

3. China: The nation faces difficult economic circumstances and tries to maintain stability via Yuan and bonds interventions. Also, the foreign policy stance of China is growing tensions with the Philippines. The long standing disagreement about Taiwan’s sovereignty is well documented, but Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea is raising alarm bells among some political analysts. Manufacturing PMI results will be published by China early on Saturday. Economic data from the nation is being inspected by foreign investors carefully who are looking for long-term yields, but are troubled about transparency and the potential of sudden policy changes.

As an aside, APEC will conduct its annual meeting in November from the 10th until the 16th in Peru. Both Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will attend. Depending on Biden’s health and the outcome of the U.S Presidential Election on the 5th of November, this Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will prove important.

2. U.S Data: Jerome Powell’s capitulation last Friday via his public statement that the Fed needs to cut interest rates fueled a weaker USD. Forex has seemingly priced in a combined 0.50% basis cut via the Fed for September and November. Yesterday’s stronger than anticipated U.S GDP growth and inflation reports however created headwinds, which caused outlook jitters. Today’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index monthly gauge is expected to come in with a gain of 0.2%. If the inflation report can match the anticipated result this may calm Forex, equity indices, and Treasury yields before going into the long holiday weekend. Next Friday U.S Non-Farm Employment Change numbers will be published. Today’s trading may be muted because of thin volumes, but day traders should expect volatility to increase starting next Tuesday.

1. Competition: Nvidia was valued around 47.50 USD per share this time last year, as of today the price is near 117.60. Intel’s value was approximately 34.50 USD this time last year, as of today the price is about 20.13 per share. Intel appears to be valued as a commodity supply company nowadays by some investors, while Nvidia’s outlook remains within the auspices of a highly anticipated technological future. Where will both companies values be this time next year?

postR180.1

Summer Optimism as Forex and Equities Focus on Fall Outlooks

Summer Optimism as Forex and Equities Focus on Fall Outlooks

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted the obvious at the Kansas City’s Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday. The realization the U.S Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates confirmed what many financial institutions had positioned their trading desks for via forward cash Forex contracts over the past month.

postR180.1
USD Cash Index One Year Chart on the 27th August 2024

The USD has been expected to grow weaker by many people because most knew the Fed would have to state a September rate cut would be delivered. The question that was also somewhat answered is the notion if the Fed will also cut in November. Though Powell certainly did not say a rate cut would happen in November, his rhetoric made it clear the Federal Reserve is considering a dovish perspective which could translate into additional cuts down the road.

The Fed has been criticized for being too passive and while Powell can be congratulated for his rather unemotional Federal Reserve leadership, he and the Fed can certainly be faulted for not reacting quickly enough to ‘transitory’ inflation and then not responding until this past weekend to the need for cutting interest rates with dovish rhetoric. Let’s also remember the U.S Treasury (government) is on the line to pay exorbitant costs for debt repayments because of bad U.S fiscal policy.

postR180.2

As an interesting related side note, the head of the Brazilian Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, made a strong appeal for governments to be fiscally responsible while speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this past weekend. While he could have been talking to any number of nations regarding spending, his points were obviously meant to highlight his disagreements with the Brazilian government led by Lula da Silva and the Workers Party. Roberto Campos-Neto stated that approximately 50,000,000 (yes, million) people in Brazil receive government allowances, while only about 43,000,000 people are earning money via employment and business enterprises. Traders who want to keep an eye on the USD/BRL this week may be entertained by the potential volatility within the currency pair which is trading a hair below 5.5000 before it opens today. The USD/BRL has certainly not been correlating to broad Forex USD centric weakness, and demonstrates the internal domestic fight between Lula da Silva and the Brazilian Central Bank regarding fiscal policy.

Jobs data from the U.S has continued to turn negative, particularly via revised reports which are being published rather ‘quietly’ as election season approaches. Yet, financial institutions have been aware of the weaker jobs numbers. While the poor jobs numbers combined with eroding inflation is good for USD centric weakness due to the knowledge the Fed will have to reverse from its rather high interest rates, the question becomes how much per the financial institutions selling of the USD has been acted upon in Forex. Is the USD oversold for the time being? It depends on trading timeframes certainly.

Weaker USD centric positions will need more impetus for further bearish trajectories to be seen near-term. Financial institutions may believe equilibrium is being approached, this because it appears interest rate cuts equaling a 0.50% decline seem to have been factored into Forex. Will the Federal Reserve be put into a position in which they will be able to cut by a full basis point (-1.00%) over the next six months?

postR180.3
Gold Six Month Chart on the 27th of August 2024

Gold is trading near 2,500.00 plus at the time of this writing. Gold has touched higher levels in the past week and is getting a round of applause from its throngs of believers who proclaim the precious metal the ultimate safe haven against inflation and erosion fears via fiat currencies – including the USD. As a reminder, Bitcoin is highly speculative and doesn’t have the historical (thousands of years) track record that gold has acquired.

postR180.4
GBP/USD Five Year Chart on the 27th of August 2024

The EUR and GBP are traversing higher territories not seen in a while. The EUR/USD is near the 1.11700 level, which was last traded in July of 2023, and it has been since 2022 that sustained prices above this current realm have been traded. The GBP/USD is near 1.32000 and is within a value ratio last seen in March of 2022. Central banks will remain in focus as summer ends and the fall trading season gets underway. The ECB will release their Main Refinancing Rate on the 12th of September, the Fed will present the Federal Funds Rate on the 18th, and the BoE will follow suit with the Official Bank Rate on the 19th.

However, those September dates are still a few weeks away and financial institutions do have data this week which could stir Forex, equity indices and U.S Treasuries in the near-term. Day traders often do not have the ability to rely upon mid and long-term outlooks, and instead have to be content with trying to ride the momentum trends being caused by larger players. While the USD weaker outlook is tempting to rely upon, speculators who are looking for quick hitting wagers need to judge technical charts and try to grasp existing behavioral sentiment which can shift rapidly depending on lengths of time.

Traders should remember the U.S will celebrate its Labor Day holiday next Monday, which sets the stage for potential sudden volatility to flourish before big financial institutions in the States leave for their long weekend. The last week of August should be rather tranquil. Certainly most long-term investors feel as if they have more clarity regarding interest rates and will be able to relax. The hope is that the current calm is not the quiet before the storm due to lingering political issues in the U.S, France and elsewhere. And that escalation of the Ukrainian and Russia war, and the Middle East conflict do not cause sudden surges of bedlam.

Economic data events the remainder of this week that should be given consideration includes the U.S CB Consumer Sentiment reading today. Yesterday’s U.S Durable Goods Orders came in with mixed results as the Core number fell by minus -0.2%, but the broad number came in with a substantial gain of 9.9%.

postR180.5
USD/JPY Three Month Chart on the 27th of August 2024

The Bank of Japan has published their Core CPI data today and the outcome came in below expectations with a gain of 1.8% compared to the estimate of 2.1%. The USD/JPY is trading near 144.790 at the time of this writing as it continues to show bearish tendencies. The Bank of Japan which was heavily criticized in many circles may actually be achieving what they have planned, this as they have tried to stimulate stronger export and confront inflation. Their battle is not over yet.

Australian CPI data will be published on Wednesday. And on Thursday, German Preliminary Consumer Price Index numbers will be released. The EUR/USD could react to this report, but the European Single Currency remains highly USD centric. Which sets the table for the U.S Prelim Gross Domestic Product report also on Thursday. The growth number from the U.S could diminish selling considerations for the USD if the report comes in stronger than expected. However, the GDP Price Index and weekly Unemployment Claims from the U.S could also impact short-term behavioral sentiment and cause a bit of turbulence if negative results are published.

Friday will see more CPI numbers from Japan, CPI and GDP numbers from France, and GDP data from Canada. But before going into the long holiday weekend the U.S will present one more major report with its Core PCE Price Index and the monthly statistic is expected to show a slight gain of 0.2%.

China watchers will get Manufacturing PMI numbers early on Saturday. Recent China data continues to show signs of economic stress regarding foreign investment, domestic consumer spending, and deflationary results. Buyers beware.

postR192

Telling Someone to Not Trade Works Like Reverse Psychology

Telling Someone to Not Trade Works Like Reverse Psychology

From the strange but true file, comes the realization after working within risk analysis for a long time that telling a speculator to avoid a particular market because I believe it is going to be volatile often has the opposite effect. Perhaps the best thing to do is to remain silent and allow inexperienced day traders to lose their money, convincing them to walk away from speculative endeavors forever. But I prefer to constantly teach and warn, while providing help for those who have made the firm decision they want to pursue the financial markets.

postR192

It is rather well documented that 90% of retail traders lose their money. And as pointed out within AMT since our inception most brokerage institutions are counting on you to lose money. This because many platforms are letting you trade via CFD assets and virtual Forex wagering, meaning the brokers take the risks that you may actually make money and are willing to pay out your winning bet, because they know most of the time you are going to lose. If not today then tomorrow, because casinos always believe the gamblers will lose.

People ask why I refer to wagers and bets when I write about Forex, commodities and equity CFDs. The answer is because I feel the need to remind speculators constantly they are entering a domain that is akin to gambling. I have come to learn that I cannot stop inexperienced day traders from making costly mistakes by telling them not to trade. New retail speculators can be helped by providing them risk management via basic knowledge and expanding upon the theme. Angry Meta Traders intends to always make risk management and analysis of the markets its core foundation.

Yes, we also provide our insights about potential directions in particular assets constantly, and try to contribute our thoughts on the thinking of the large players within the marketplace. We would like AMT to become a membership pass into the temple for retail traders and the occasional institutional participant that reads our material. Temples are usually the domain for philosophies which have been gained through years of experience and contemplation about the human condition.

While it may sound absurd to discuss temples, experienced traders unless they have been merely lucky their entire careers, know the psychology of financial institutions is always important. Understanding the behavioral sentiment of large players and the quantitative engineering they use to make decisions is crucial. The keys to the inner workings of the financial temples is a metaphor, hopefully allowing day traders to feel like they have been given the ability to look inside and understand the decision making process of large institutions that can move the markets.

Angry Meta Traders is not always right, our analysis and predicted movements about assets are sometimes wrong. Yet, by stressing risk management via limited leverage, stop losses when appropriate (they almost always are), and telling traders to not be overly ambitious, we hope AMT delivers constant reinforcement and needed learning.

The noise of the market can be quite intense, false narratives, and misguided analysis are dangers all traders face, even the most experienced large players and financial institutions understand they will not always be correct. And this takes us back to the notion that trading for inexperienced people is not easy. But I know telling you not to trade works in the wrong way. So what I tell you now is to be patient, learn, gather wisdom as you trade and hopefully you will attain some of the tools needed to make your speculative life easier. Knowing that 90% of traders lose money, we hope that via our efforts to inform that we can put you within the small percentage of people who actually profit.

postR179

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

postR179

10. Word of the Day: Like crepuscular animals which are active during twilight, large market players are ruminating as their summer hiatus draws to an end over the next week and a half. Plans for coming hunts are being formulated as leisure concludes for financial institutions preparing to work in the shadows.

9. Scrolling Failures: Lack of solid results on search engines are becoming a growing annoyance. Is it just us? An abundance of poor information via defined searches on the internet and finding what is sought is becoming increasingly problematic. Is AI being allowed to do too much while still too dumb? AI doesn’t know when it is wrong. Competitors to Google and others are sought.

8. How Dare Us: The postponement of imposed dates regarding energy policy changes are multiplying. The end for the classical use of oil, coal and nuclear is not near. Efficient power is evolving, but this will have to include ‘antique’ generation and grids. The demand for electric vehicles are being confronted with declining sales via U.S consumers. Tangible technology needs precise planning, not apocalyptic rhetoric which tries to scare people.

7. Middle East Calm: The storm is being limited within a tea cup for the moment. The potential for a dangerous boiling painful mess still exists. ‘Serenity now’ remains a mantra for those who need to pay attention as chagrin and anxiousness mix.

6. Fed Retreat: The FOMC Meeting Minutes released this week showed some Fed members remained cautious, while others banged the drum louder regarding interest rate cuts. However, a Fed Funds Rate reduction is almost a 100% certainty for the 18th of September. The question now is what the Fed will do in November. Fed Chairman Powell and a slew of other renowned global central bankers will speak today and tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Financial institutions largely believe they know what is going to be said, but comments from Bank of Japan and Brazilian leadership could prove to be informative and entertaining for central bank nerds. Monday could be volatile for USD/BRL traders.

5. VIX: The CBOE’s Volatility Index climbed to the 56 vicinity on the 5th of August as panic grew via widespread overreactions to hyperbole ripping through the markets. The fear gauge is near the 17.55 ratio as of this writing. Market calm has resumed across the board as financial institutions and day traders have been able to achieve a pleasant tone again. Traders who use the VIX as a template regarding the potential of risks suddenly cascading into assets should keep their eyes on the index, which went to a low around the 14.45 mark on Monday. Yet, the slight incremental climb the past few days could be coming from folks still speculating on volatility which may not develop near-term.

4. Barometers: Gold is lingering slightly below 2,500.00 for the moment, this after having achieved a record high on Tuesday when it touched the 2532.00 apex. WTI Crude Oil is near 74.00 USD per barrel and is maintaining a polite value range. Speculatively, Cocoa is again above 9,000 USD per ton and Bitcoin has fought its way above 61,000 this morning. Risk appetite remains stable for the moment.

3. Forex: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, even the USD/ZAR have been able to hold onto their recent trends as USD centric weakness remains viable. Traders who were looking for huge moves in FX this week have likely been disappointed. Retail speculators need to understand financial institutions have been positioning for a weaker USD since the tail end of July. Market players may be quite pleased regarding current Forex equilibrium, which may allow technical traders the ability to take advantage of existing behavioral sentiment, this as reversals flourish and the next big wave of impetus is awaited. Next Thursday’s U.S Preliminary GDP numbers may deliver some noise.

2. Cassandras: Market experts who proclaimed a long-term stock market crash in early August have crawled back into their caves to take cover and percolate their next fear mongering tactics. This after the latest round of predicted catastrophes have vanished. While the major U.S stock indices are not at record highs, they have recovered plenty of lost ground and appear ready for more days in the sun.

1. Political Winds: The curtain closed on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last night without a serious hiccup. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now enter a crucial phase of campaigning, and will get plenty of attention as they go into attack mode. The next big event for Harris and Trump will be their televised debate on the 10th of September. Will the outcome prove to be a devastating storm for one of the candidates?

postR178.1

Tranquility: Forex, Equities and Treasury Yields Drama-Free

Tranquility: Forex, Equities and Treasury Yields Drama-Free

Sometimes no news is welcome. The markets though not devoid of drama, have been relatively tranquil. It is obviously summer in the northern hemisphere which helps bring about quiet, this since many ‘active’ market participants are off vacationing having been allowed to go on holiday. The implosion in the markets on the 5th of August after the dangerous riptides created by the combination of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan have certainly eased and evidence of the chaos is fading. Retail traders who are always looking at charts and for opportunities may have even been able to rest too the past week and a half.

postR178.1
USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

The USD/JPY as of this moment is near 147.185. The Nikkei 225 has recovered lost ground from over-reactive selling on the 5th of August. The value of the Japanese equity index is within extremely intriguing territory as financial institutions are clearly taking a wait and see approach regarding more BoJ and Fed rhetoric, combined with fundamental analysis of Japan’s economy and their companies in consideration. It is a healthy market dynamic, particularly via a notion the Nikkei 225 having reached an early August equilibrium is a solid result, this if you have a long-term viewpoint.

postR178.2
Nikkei 225 Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

The GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/SGD have all seen better results for traders who have been wagering on USD centric weakness. Even the USD/ZAR has produced a solid trajectory. U.S Treasuries yields are falling.

postR178.3
Gold Six Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

Yes, day traders definitely have different approaches compared to long-term investors, but if a speculator who is accustomed to quick trades synthesizes an outlook using the behavioral sentiment of long-term institutional players, they might find it helps build some foundations which help perceptions when deciding what to pursue. The use of barometers is always good too, this often gives a trader insights regarding market mood even if it is not an asset class they want to pursue. Gold is within record territory as it hovers around 2,500.00 USD per ounce.

Investors can argue all day and night about interpretations regarding results. The trading within gold the past six months, even since November of 2022 opens doors to a vast amount of complex explanations and narratives. They are too numerous to argue here, but the ability of the precious metal to march higher should continue to be watched. The recent surge higher since the end of June suggests – but it is again, only an explanation after the results have been seen – that gold traders believed the Federal Reserve would have to eventually capitulate and stop behaving hawkish about interest rates.

And this brings us squarely to this weeks events. Yes, the DNC is underway in Chicago and hopefully it provides a rather calm atmosphere free of political chaos via unwanted demonstrators. If investors can focus on the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes report which will be published on Wednesday this would be good.

Because the Fed refused to sound dovish in their last FOMC Statement this created the potential for massive retaliation by institutional traders, and when coupled with the BoJ hike and their rhetoric, market turmoil in Japan and globally promptly ensued for a few days. However, because of recent inflation data again highlighting U.S prices via Producer Price Index are stable and decreasing in some sectors, and CPI has continued to come in below anticipated results, investors again firmly believe the Federal Reserve will definitely cut the Fed Funds Rate by at least 0.25% in September, and may be in a position to cut in November. Thus, the weakness and volatility of the USD which is clear to see via the USD Cash Index results.

postR178.4
USD Cash Index Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

Yet and potentially amusing tomorrow, the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes may simply restate the cautious and very passive rhetoric from the last FOMC Statement. This because the Meeting Minutes are a reflection on thoughts shared at the Fed meeting, and we know what that outcome was already. Meaning tomorrow’s publication may scare some investors, but it shouldn’t. Tomorrow’s Fed paper may prove to be a non-event.

This sets the table for the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming which starts on Thursday to produce a myriad of central banker statements led by Jerome Powell and his counterparts from the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. The event is likely going to be important, but much of the talk which occurs in closed meetings is unlikely going to be made public.

postN38.1

Reactions and Risks as Trading Clarity Remains Hard to Grasp

Reactions and Risks as Trading Clarity Remains Hard to Grasp

While many U.S government officials try to shrug off the downgrade of U.S Treasuries by Fitch Ratings last week, a warning shot has been fired regarding U.S spending and the nation’s growing deficit. Janet Yellen and others may believe the downgrade should not have happened, but the prospect that the U.S golden goose is going to stop eventually producing enough eggs is a realistic viewpoint from Fitch. Risk adverse trading on the news was seemingly sparked from the U.S Treasuries downgrade, while many prominent figures including Warren Buffet have claimed they are not worried. However, one thing that the downgrade did was certainly create more clouds for financial institutions which have already been suffering from a lack of clarity the past three weeks.

U.S economic policy remains troubling regarding its spending, and while the government believes its bonds will remain the best in the world for the foreseeable future, it would certainly help matters if responsible ‘adults’ would be allowed a voice regarding stimulus, expenditures and debt ceiling concerns. The U.S has been warned, but with a major presidential campaign approaching on the horizon, more promises to the U.S public will likely carry greater long-term costs.

postN38.1
Gold One Week Chart as of 8th August 2023

While the USD did get stronger across Forex and gold finished last week near lows, some major currencies finished Friday with slight reversals higher against the USD before going into the weekend, based on the weaker than anticipated Non-Farm Employment Change outcome. However, Average Hourly Earnings came in slightly higher. The rise in wages for employees wasn’t expected, but the gains via the inflation number may not have been considered significant enough to cause a panic.

Day traders trying to navigate through the news of the ratings downgrade and the mixed jobs numbers from the U.S may have gotten ripped apart from the volatility late last week. Forex brokers likely had a good week if the majority of their speculators were ‘B’ book – virtual – traders. Survivors of last week’s dynamic price action should be aware that financial institutions do not have the best of outlooks for global central banks. This week’s coming data may help a bit, but trading could also remain rather dangerous and churn volatility.

Global Outside Influence to Give Attention:

Although Niger may seem like a world far away for most day traders, they should keep an eye on the developments of the African nation. A military coup has gotten the attention of global powers and there are threats of military intervention rattling. France, the U.S and Nigeria and other ‘Western’ leaning nations have a stake in the Niger drama, on the other side is Russia and its Wagner affiliated mercenaries. The potential for a war to to start in this landlocked northern African nation appears to be growing. A conflict in Niger could include a wide range of competing sides and create loud rhetoric and hyperbole. It could also cause uncomfortable feelings at the BRICS summit scheduled to begin on the 22nd of August in Johannesburg, South Africa.

postN38.2
GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 8th August 2023

Monday, 7th of July, U.K Halifax Home Price Index – this data is expected to remain rather stable, but the past three results have been negative. Mortgages are getting expensive in the U.K and the pressure added from higher interest rates is not helping. The GBP/USD could react briefly to this outcome.

Monday, 7th of July, E.U Sentix Investor Confidence – the reading is anticipated to be worse than last month’s outcome regarding investor outlook. The past three months have been negative. The E.U is certainly facing recessionary pressure. Oddly enough, a poor outcome could spur on the belief the ECB may have to become less aggressive regarding their higher interest rates. The EUR/USD may see a flurry of reactions from this report.

Tuesday, 8th of July, China Trade Balance – the results will get plenty of attention because recent economic data from the nation has been troubling. Export demand is important for China’s economy.

Tuesday, 8th of July, Germany Final Consumer Price Index – the result is expected to match the forecast of a 0.3% gain. This inflation report will be watched by EUR/USD, but if expectations are met this could create rather consolidated trading until Thursday for the currency pair.

Wednesday, 9th of July, China CPI – the inflation data from the nation will be watched by global investors. Recent statistics from China have signaled concerns about ‘deflation’. An outcome of minus -0.5% is expected. Economic issues are shadowing China, this as it remains active in global affairs.

Last week Argentina announced China helped facilitate a ‘bridge loan’ for the South American nation so it could make a repayment to the IMF. Rising economic concerns in China could start to squeeze its ‘cash power’ as it tries to gain influence globally by pumping Yuan (CNY) into international finance. China has certainly been bold and is playing a ‘long game’, because its choice of Argentina as a nation to help can certainly not expect to produce short-term financial gains.

Thursday, 10th of July, U.S CPI – Consumer Price Index results from the States will cause potentially dynamic broad market movement. Inflation is expected to match last month’s rise of 0.2% via the broad and core numbers. However, traders should note that some analysts have voiced concerns rising energy prices the past month will hit the inflation numbers, if this occurs it could spark a volatile USD. Higher Crude Oil prices combined with a streak of U.S hot weather may create an intriguing outcome. Risk management should be used by day traders who are wagering in the markets as the CPI readings are released.

Friday, 11th of July, U.K GDP – the Gross Domestic Product numbers will be important immediately for the GBP/USD. Although last month’s outcome was slightly stronger than anticipated it was still negative with a minus -0.1% reading. The growth number this time around is expected to gain 0.2% per the monthly report.

Friday, 11th of July, U.S Producer Price Index – economic numbers from the States have been mixed recently. These inflation numbers are expected to show a slight rise, if the outcome meets expectations – the broad markets may remain calm. However, if inflation is stronger than expected, the result could set off fireworks if the outcome sets off fears about the U.S Fed maintaining it hawkish rhetoric.