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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

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Western Cape, South Africa

10. Absence: Apologies for the truancy of AMT’s Top 10 the past handful of months. The staff has offered a myriad of poor excuses, but it accepts responsibility and has promised to try and meet the standards of our readers with timely publication once more. More coffee has been promised to the staff as a negotiation tactic by management, even though the price of the beverage is obscene.

9. Dim the Lights: President Cyril Ramaphosa, his staff and well known South African golfers attended a highly publicized meeting in the White House with President Trump. After surprisingly dimming the lights, a video mainly consisting of EFF radical Julius Malema’s threatening escapades was shown while Trump voiced concern about attacks on farmers. Not a lot is known about the outcome of talks which went on behind closed doors afterwards, but speculation abounds. The USD/ZAR is near 17.97000.

8. Anduril Industries: An aviation company, cofounded by Palmer Luckey who at a young age created Oculus VR, is receiving important attention. Anduril is a privately held company intent on building pilotless jet fighters, among other innovative technologies. Palmer Luckey is now 32 years old and appears ready to become a transformative tech entrepreneur perhaps in the vein of Elon Musk.

7. Bitcoin: Value of BTC/USD is near $103,600.00 at this moment. GameStop has announced it has purchased Bitcoin as a form of corporate treasury, apparently following the path of MicroStrategy’s foray as a Bitcoin proxy to the dismay of some and delight of others. The price of the world’s biggest digital asset was nearly $75,000 on the 7th of April 2025.

6. TACO: An acronym meaning ‘Trump always chickens out’, created by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times, has caught the attention of many, including President Trump. While an amusing and pointed term, the context should be considered as a way to monitor the thinking of behavioral sentiment of anxious investors. Trump’s tough rhetoric and tendency to then issue a softer toned stance has been noted before by his backers as well as critics. As a means of accumulation while seeking value in assets perceived to be oversold, TACO may be a useful tool for those who agree with Armstrong’s thinking.

5. Values: Gold went into this weekend near $3,288.00. After achieving an apex around the vicinity of $3,500.00 on the 22nd of April, speculative fever has subsided a bit, but the commodity remains stubbornly in demand. Inflation in the U.S appears to be under control. Yesterday’s Core PCE Price Index met expectations with a monthly outcome of 0.1%. WTI Crude Oil’s spot price finished near $61.05 on Friday showing large traders remain convinced supply is strong.

4. Paralysis: The Fed remains steadfast and scared. While using the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively – as if part of a rave song, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell must contend with official U.S inflation data which is starkly lower and a discontent Donald Trump, this while trying to explain the comatose behavior of the U.S central bank. The Fed should cut the Federal Funds Rate asap. And a 50 basis point cut by the end of this summer should be the discussed target.

3. Leviathan: The White House’s goal of reducing the deficit is running into tough political realities as budget cutting hopes clash with entrenched bureaucracy that swallows money like a hungry sea monster. U.S Treasuries yields remain elevated. The U.S has been cautioned again via rating services – highlighted by Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S bonds. To the chagrin of many fiscal conservatives, U.S government spending remains problematic.

2. Intimidation: Apocalyptic economic headlines attract viewers. Proclaiming global catastrophe creates attention and reactions in global financial markets. However, after the fierce selling seen in equities over the past few months, there has also been plenty of resilience and indices are now showing signs of coalescing as outlooks improve. Value and yields remain a prime motivator for experienced investors.

1. Pundits: Day traders have been battling volatile market storms since the election of Donald Trump, this as financial institutions have shown a tendency to shift outlooks as they react to pandemonium and cause whipsaw price action. Many speculators have experienced costly losses. Listening to self-anointed experts has not helped. Be wary of anyone who claims to be a market guru, and remember some call themselves gurus simply because spelling charlatan takes too long.

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Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

Taco Trade Consideration: All about Accumulation Not Ego

Taco Friday is upon us. Fair or not the newly coined expression TACO – Trump always chickens out – is a rather savvy way of looking at current market perspectives. Day traders have run into a buzzsaw trying to speculate on daily gyrations, but investors who have the ability to accumulate based on valuations in equities, Forex and perhaps even commodities such as gold and WTI Crude Oil have likely enjoyed the choppy ride the past handful of months.

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Nvidia One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders who are betting on the daily whims of Forex or the stock markets have been participating in assets being stirred by a constant storm via behavioral sentiment shifts caused by White House rhetoric. President Trump has said the expression is mean. And in fact the Taco statement may be wrong all together, because what has gone down and back up, has also gone down again followed by additional reversals. But let’s put ego and wrong notions to the side for a moment. Because the important point about the Taco expression is actually about finding value.

Let’s consider that financial institutions have experience and skin in the game. The ability to buy stocks on lows and accumulate them based on a long-term mindset is likely going to prove correct. Consider Nvidia, it has suffered pratfalls, but continues to recover and pick itself off the floor and is now challenging highs again. Yes, the SP500, Nasdaq and Dow30 have all seen what can be described as whipsaw results. However, the optimistic notion that common sense rules and quality will prevail is a feature of investing. Blood on the streets as Warren Buffet has often said, is not a bad thing, it is an opportunity.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 30th May 2025

Day traders attempting to time the markets have always experienced a great deal of pain when speculating on notions that ‘now is the time’. Patience often proves to be worthwhile in trading and investing. Anyone who claims they are constantly buying exactly on lows and selling on apex values should be treated suspiciously. Attempting to time highs and lows is a bit like gambling on sports without any inside knowledge, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

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U.S Dollar Index as of 30th May 2025

In Forex the USD has been battered but continues to produce sudden violent price action. Today’s Core PCE Price Index from the U.S is expected to produce a 0.1% increase – which would be considered negligible by the markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently met with the President for the first time since Trump took control of the White House this term. The President is on the record as saying the Fed should cut interest rates now, this while Powell repeats the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively.

Today’s inflation report is a vital statistical report for the Federal Reserve and will stir Forex. Perhaps, Jerome Powell should consider the Taco expression and understand that while talking tough Trump often is only expressing a strong stance to achieve a middle ground. If inflation numbers are near the forecasted outlook, the Fed should certainly cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, investors who have been accumulating stock on lower values and are playing a long game, may also be counting on ignition fuel being poured upon the markets to create a dynamic bullish run via positive impetus. Yet, even if profits are not achieved in the short-term, investors also understand they are being given an opportunity via the occasional outbursts from President Trump to take advantage of a rather delicious tactic.

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An Expanding Axis – Will Egypt and Pakistan Become Members?

An Expanding Axis - Will Egypt and Pakistan Become Members?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 26th of May via The Angry Demagogue.

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China seems to be taking advantage of the transition from the Obama-Biden appeasement based foreign policy to the Trump commercial based system. Whereas Obama-Biden had no problem punishing allies that dared to oppose the US-EU appeasement and woke revolution, Trump is looking to create alliances based on commerce – and threatens allies that don’t go along. While the Obama-Biden policy failed utterly and arguably caused the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the Trump administration seems to be playing for time as it restructures the global security order.

China however does not seem to care to wait and are stretching their sway not only in the South China Sea but westward towards the Middle East. The four member Axis – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea seems to be expanding to other countries with strong military dictatorships. Egypt and Pakistan will be the next members of the Axis. While much of China’s belt and road policy deals with bankrupting poor, weak countries, they seem now to concentrate on strong military dictatorships. Egypt and Pakistan are being pried from the western camp as we speak.

Pakistan has, for awhile not been firmly in the western camp. It was a cold war U.S ally as India, while democratic, sided with the Soviets on most international issues. While the US was busy in Afghanistan, the Pakistanis played double agent. Now that the U.S is not in the region and the U.S and India have become closer, Pakistan is now firmly in the Chinese camp.

In addition to Pakistan, Egypt becoming the next major member of the Axis.

Let’s take a few steps back and examine the burgeoning relationship between Egypt – a military dictatorship and Communist China. As we have written China and Egypt had joint military maneuvers that included deliberate violations of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty guaranteed by the United States. Egypt, in thumbing its nose not only at Israel but at the United States, allowed Chinese planes to approach the Israeli border in order to test Israeli reaction to a possible invasion. Multiple Chinese military cargo jets flew in undisclosed hardware in the days leading up to the maneuvers.

Three more Chinese Y-20 cargo planes landed in Egypt last week again, carrying unknown hardware. At least one of these planes came from Pakistan. Egypt also seems to be signing major arms deals with France as Macron reeks of desperation in his attempt to remain relevant – but a de Gaulle he is not, and he will not be able to create a force or policy independent of the U.S. Egypt will be glad to take advanced French weaponry while it creates a stronger alliance with China.

Back to Pakistan one has to wonder if the Pakistan-Indian flareup a prelude to what can happen in other theatres – or worse, a purposeful conflagration to test Chinese weapons systems in actual combat and keep the West on its back feet? According to most reports they were able to shoot down between 3 and 5 of France’s most advanced Rafal fighters without even entering Indian territory. The confrontation started with a heinous terrorist attack against Indians in Kashmir by a terror group associated with the Pakistani armed forces. India claims that Pakistan is directly involved in the attack. If so, this would not have been the first one.

The downing of the Indian French built Rafal fighters by Pakistan’s Chinese produced 10-C was, according to expert reports, not just or even mainly superior piloting but with a Chinese strategy and technology that includes all aspects of air power – including recognition of the target, locking on and attack from distances in what an American air expert called a perfect air based killing machine. This would seem to be the first real test of Chinese advanced air-power and it something that needed to be done before any invasion of Taiwan. This may not test their own pilots but it does test the strategy and the technology.

China has a main medium term goal here and it is not a secret. They are planning to take Taiwan by force and need to make sure their soldiers, sailors and hardware are up to the job. They have seen how poorly the Russian army has performed and have seen how Israel has dismantled Iran’s defenses and swatted away Iran’s offensive attacks. China has not fought a major war for decades and for all the advances they say they have made – all have been untested. Until now.

China will not risk a war with India itself but would be more than happy to have its proxy involved. Chinese fighters and their new “over the horizon” missiles are key in their plans to deter the U.S from defending Taiwan – or in defeating U.S naval airpower if the U.S does get actively involved. However, as close as French technology is to America’s it is not the same and the one country that seems to have taken U.S technology to the next level is Israel. How would Chinese weaponry due against American arms in the hands of an air force equivalent in skill and bravery to the American air forces? That has yet to be tested but that brings us back to Egypt. Is it in China’s interests for Egypt to make a major break with the U.S at China’s urging much as they made a break with the Soviet Union at America’s urging? Of course. Would that mean that China might help Egypt provoke a military confrontation with Israel in order to test Chinese arms and relieve pressure on Iran? Maybe.

On to Iran then, where it does not seem that the Americans or Israelis understand the nature of the Iranian-Chinese relationship. Not only does China get the bulk of its oil (subsidized) from Iran but they have just completed a rail link from Xinjiang, China to Teheran, Iran – running through four countries. This rail line can ship oil as well as other cargo, cutting into the American (and Indian) naval superiority around the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. The assumption by military planners has always been that the U.S can cut off Chinese access to oil, if necessary. That is no longer the case.

China is not standing still – they are expanding their axis of dictatorships to countries in which the army is in control. Pakistan and Egypt qualify. Iran, while a theocracy is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. No matter the “deal” that the Trump administration negotiates with Iran they will not be pried away from Iran. China has more to offer an ideological dictatorship then commercial deals with the United States. What the alleged realists in foreign policy refuse to understand is that dictatorships have no interest in commercial success if it weakens their grip on power. They are interested in deals that enrich their regimes since that also strengthens their grip on their people.

The trillion of so dollars in deals that the U.S has now made with the Persian Gulf states ensures that America remains a player in the middle east. Those who think that the Mideast is a tertiary region at best – after Asia and South America – need to rethink their strategies. As China closes in on control of the world from the Pacific to the Mediterranean the U.S is left with just two military powers it can depend on – Israel and India – to help defend its old/new commercial interests. It is not only oil – it is not Boeing jets, Nvidia chips and many other products that are moving from the US to the Gulf as opposed from the Gulf to the U.S. The U.S is no longer a commercial client of the Gulf states but the country who needs to protect its clients. The relationship has changed but the security relationship has only gotten more important.

The addition of Egypt and Pakistan to the Axis means that the Chinese threat has expanded. They are not giving up on Taiwan, nor are they giving up on South America and the Pacific Ocean but rather, China is using its experience as a dictatorship to strengthen ties with other freedom hating countries. We can all pretend that values and culture don’t matter, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t. This Axis is one where the interest of each member is to stay in power, force its will on its people and enrich itself at the expense of its people. This is an Axis, not only of the unfree, but of those who need to eradicate freedom to “thrive”.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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Why No Major Panic in U.S Stock via Moody’s Downgrade?

Why No Major Panic in U.S Stock via Moody's Downgrade?

While Asian equity markets opened with initial nervousness yesterday after Friday’s late downgrade of U.S debt by Moody’s to Aa1. The U.S major indices did not respond with panic selling, By the end of yesterday’s trading the Dow30, Nasdaq100 and SP500 turned in rather mundane and positive results. Behavioral sentiment and knowing what experienced investors think remains important for people trying to mirror the actions of larger players while trying to take advantage of potential market action.

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Dow Jones 30 One Year Chart as of 20th May 2025

What was NOT mentioned widely in the press yesterday were the facts that Standard & Poor’s had actually downgraded U.S debt in 2011 from AAA to AA+, also Fitch had been warning of a downgrade the past handful of years and did so in 2023 to AA+. U.S government debt remains a definite burden on the U.S economic outlook, but investment institutions have been discussing the dangers of the 36+ trillion USD deficit for years. Talking about something doesn’t mean it is fixed, but it does mean it has been acknowledged and this is where sentiment comes into play.

Wall Street remains in many respects the only game in town for large global investors looking for quiet steady returns. U.S exceptionalism – or at least the concept that the U.S economy remains a true safe haven compared to other investment vehicles worldwide – continues to spur on a confidence game that sees money pumped into it by global pension funds and long-term investors which seek yields that outpace inflation. It can certainly be argued that this endeavor is not always achieved, but the concept that the ability to grow money faster in equity investments via the likes of index investing compared to letting money sit in a bank is noteworthy. The ability of large institutions to place considerable amounts of money in more speculative pursuits like singular equities in sectors they are interested in like AI and quantum also creates a dimension to outperform benchmark indices., but is riskier.

The USD remains the world’s currency of choice for effective trade and protection against the dangers of volatile Forex. The Trump administration likely wants a weaker USD in order to spur on export from the U.S, but it certainly doesn’t want to see the greenback killed. Nor does the White House want to see U.S Treasury yields balloon too high. Day traders may not have been told to watch yields in the 10 Year U.S Treasuries by their brokers, but it is an open secret that should be used as a barometer for investor sentiment. The signals may not work everyday, but over the long-term if U.S yields on the 10 Year U.S Treasuries are soaring it likely means major U.S equity indices are struggling with anxiety – and when the yields are turning lower it can be expected that U.S equity indices are gaining.

An important piece of the confidence game that speculators should note regarding confidence in U.S markets is that 10 Year U.S Treasury yields yesterday declined, and are now lower than values seen last Friday after the ratings downgrade by Moody’s, and are testing values seen on the 14th of May. Traders should certainly stay alert, but they must remember the U.S investment landscape is resilient and is likely not going to perish suddenly. Investors like most humans tend to be optimistic and believe things will work out with positive results somehow developing. It doesn’t mean stock values will always go up, in fact they can move lower violently periodically, but a long-term vision helps when investing in U.S equities.

There has been no panic in U.S equities and the world continues to look at the SP500, Dow30 and Nasdaq100 as places to position investments. Yes, other spheres exists which can produce greater yields, but this also includes higher risks. International diversification is a solid focal point for investors, and day traders need to understand a complex game is being played. Reacting to every soundbite of developing news probably does more harm to speculators compared to good. A steady approach and conservative risk taking tactics are vital.

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High Level Antics as Trump Battles Institutions over Economy

High Level Antics as Trump Battles Institutions over Economy

Late last week Moody’s downgraded U.S debt, and the 10 Year Treasury yields as of this morning are near 4.50%. Yet, the Chicago Volatility Index is around the 17.25 level which is actually a small victory and shows that sentiment has improved quite a bit the past month. Let’s remember the VIX was near 60.50 in early April.

Wall Street had a handful of rather positive trading days too last week. Complexity remains a fixture for investors as they navigate their sentiment which is being generated by a rather stormy mix of perceptions. Day traders continue to face a tough betting environment via trends. The S&P 500 and other stock indices are showing signs of life, but how will they react to the Moody’s downgrade with a full weekend of consideration?

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10 Year U.S Treasury Yields Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Last week’s U.S inflation numbers via CPI and PPI were weaker than expected, which raises the curious and obvious question as to why the Federal Reserve remains overtly cautious and refuses to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% basis points? Short-term traders still have difficult days ahead and those anticipating a fast and powerful bullish run in equities among the bigger indices need to remain vigilant. Sustained higher price action has likely not arrived quite yet for overly optimistic endeavors.

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S&P 500 Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Let there be no doubt that there is a coming collision between the U.S White House and the Federal Reserve. The high level of yields the U.S Treasuries are accountable for are unsustainable and costly for the economy. President Trump will be in no mood for polite conversation with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Now that Trump is back from his Middle East trip he will likely turn his attention to the U.S debt downgrade and blame not only his predecessor in the White House but Powell too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will likely address monetary policy too in the coming days.

The lower costs of WTI Crude Oil seen the past few months is helping fight inflation. As of this morning $61.70 is the vicinity for early trading. The price of energy appears to be within a solid lower range and likely has little ability to raise significantly. If the price of WTI remains under 70.00 USD this will help global inflation remain rather polite.

But this doesn’t take away from the threat of tariff pressures which do remain unknown. However, it can be argued the Federal Reserve is being far too cautious in the interim. Yes, the U.S central bank faces uncertain economic forecasts because of the potential of U.S tariffs hitting manufacturing and consumer prices, but there is a chance also the Trump administration will actually achieve better than anticipated trade agreements.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 19 May 2025

Gold as of this morning is slightly above $3,200.00 per ounce, which shows that speculators and investors have backed away from the buying power the precious metal created in the third week of April when the $3,500.00 price was challenged. The USD remains in a dog fight against major currencies in Forex as financial institutions look for equilibrium and try to decide if they should gamble on the Fed cutting interest rates in July. The USD has lost value since early April and remains in weaker mid-term territory. However, the EUR/USD has given back a lot of its gains made throughout April, but financial institutions may now look at current levels as viable support and become buyers again.

Day traders remain in a difficult spot. Wagering on daily market gyrations via interpretations of behavioral sentiment is sensible, but the problem is the quickly shifting winds that still remain a danger. Folks participating in the markets should use the 10 Year U.S Treasury yields as a barometer. Having fallen to lows below 4.00% in the first week of April, investors are again demanding more incentives to buy U.S debt, highlighting murky mid-term outlooks.

U.S Manufacturing PMI numbers will be released this week on Thursday, but this will not influence the markets too much. Instead investors will keep their eyes on the White House as media focus turns from Middle East politics to U.S economic policy. While there have been ‘green shoots’ emerging in the SP500, Nasdaq100 and Dow30, traders should keep their leverage at conservative levels if they merely intend on making short-term wagers.

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Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

Quick Trading Lesson and Mantra to Practice Patience

Current speculative conditions are difficult for day traders. In most cases the market environments are likely very costly too. The amount of recent volatility over the past few months has made brokers very happy and traders very poor in many cases. Traders seeking to profit with limited resources who are using too much leverage have certainly lost money in many cases. No one talks about losses at dinner parties, folks like to brag only about their winning bets.

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Nasdaq 100 One Year Chart as of 15th May 2025

To trade effectively in current circumstances a speculator needs patience, very limited leverage, and even the ability to carry trades overnight. The markets via Forex, equity indices and commodities due to the Trump Effect are fast and volatile. Having too much leverage on one single trade can create devastating losses. An other item to practice under present market chaos is to limit your trading. Do NOT have more than a couple of trades on at one time. Do not divert your attention if you are not able to handle the speed of the markets with too many wagers at one time.

In order to get an effective outcome, you need to not only be focused and use conservative amounts of money to wager on a position, but you also need to be able to handle the volatility of a trade while it losses money. And under the present markets – for instance CFD trading of stock indices like the Nasdaq100 or SP500 – results are dynamic via their reversals. Thus, you need to be able to handle the intraday volatility and perhaps consider carrying a trade overnight which creates other expenses from brokers who charge for the pleasure of near-term trading compared to quick short-term bets. Stop losses are important, but if you use conservative leverage this allows you the ability to let an asset trade via a wider range.

The markets are likely to stay chaotic for a while. Conditions do seem to be improving, but a broad spectrum of assets are still seeing daily moves that suggest nervousness has not disappeared fully yet. Optimism is showing slivers of light for bullish perspectives, but short-term players will watch their visions turn into mirages if they are over leveraged and over confident. Speculators need to remain wary of their perspectives because sentiment will continue to shift rapidly. Clarity may be on the horizon, but in order to profit from more optimistic outcomes patience is needed. The markets as they stand today are a fine example of the tortoise and hare race – a slow steady approach is safer than a helter-skelter rocket ride for traders.