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India Insider: Agriculture Still Traps Nation’s Workforce

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Agriculture Still Traps Nation's Workforce

A Field Survey in South India’s Agricultural Towns

India’s growth story is usually told through noteworthy headline numbers. Yet beneath these aggregates lies a persistent imbalance, agriculture continues to employ a large share of the workforce, while contributing a much smaller share of output. This gap shapes income stability, consumption patterns, and the complicated experience of growth across much of the country for many people.

This essay uses field observations comparing two major agricultural towns in Tamil Nadu State in India, Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi. After analyzing their respective data and examining how this imbalance plays out on the ground, I offer my perspective.

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Typical Agricultural Field in Southern India

Tiruvannamalai: Growth Without Employment Transformation

In Tiruvannamalai district, I visited several areas where housing conditions were poor and informal settlements were widespread. I have visited many households here since 2023. These conditions are now changing, but not in a way that fundamentally transforms employment.

Capital inflows from the neighboring State of Andhra Pradesh have fueled a real estate boom and expanded services such as lodging, restaurants, and transport. While this has altered the physical landscape and raised asset values, it has not created stable non-farm jobs at scale. Employment remains largely informal, seasonal, and low-paid, leaving the underlying agricultural labor trap intact.

Although Tiruvannamalai exhibits a relatively high services share in district GDP, the income generated by this sector accrues from a narrow group of asset owners, intermediaries, and rent-seekers. As a result, per capita income figures overstate the extent of broad-based welfare. A large share of the workforce remains engaged in low-wage service activities with limited income security.

Kallakurichi: Agricultural Dependence, Weaker Services

In Kallakurichi district, the structural imbalance is even more pronounced. Agriculture accounts for a noticeably larger share of district GDP than in Tiruvannamalai, while the services share is correspondingly lower. District level GDDP and sectoral composition data from the Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Tamil Nadu (2022–23 provisional, current prices), show that agriculture contributes roughly one-fifth of district output, even as a disproportionately large share of the workforce continues to depend on this type of work for income.

This high dependence on agriculture results in extremely low output per worker, widespread disguised unemployment, and chronically weak incomes. Growth exists, but it is concentrated in activities that do not absorb labor effectively.

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Gross Domestic District Product Comparison of Agriculture versus Non-Agriculture

Core Problem: Growth Composition, Not Growth Absence

The core structural problem in districts like Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi is therefore not the absence of growth, but its composition. Too many workers remain tied to a sector that generates relatively little value. Services and industry have expanded, but not in a manner that absorbs surplus rural labor at scale.

As long as labor remains trapped in low productivity farming, while non-farm sectors fail to provide stable employment opportunities, headline income measures will continue to overstate actual welfare.

Consumption Consequences of Agricultural Dependence

This imbalance has direct consequences for consumption. Towns that depend heavily on agriculture tend to exhibit weak and uneven consumption patterns. Farm incomes are inherently volatile, driven by fluctuations in commodity prices, weather conditions, and market access. In many cases, farmers are forced to sell produce at a discount, incur outright losses, or delay sales under distressing conditions. Only intermittently do they realize meaningful profits.

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Chart Comparing Towns of Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi in Tamil Nadu

This volatility translates into cautious spending behavior. Consumption rises in short bursts following a good season, but thereafter contracts sharply. This pattern is clearly visible in districts such as Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi, where agricultural dependence suppresses steady consumption despite occasional income windfalls.

The same dynamic is visible at State level. Across Tamil Nadu, agriculture employs over 40 percent of the labor force, while contributing a far smaller share of output. The statistics exhibited at the district level are therefore not an isolated phenomenon, but a systemic one.

National Structural Imbalance

Zooming out further, what is visible in Tiruvannamalai and Kallakurichi mirrors India’s broader structural imbalance. Nationally, agriculture employs close to half the workforce, but contributes less than a fifth of GDP. This gap suppresses incomes, weakens consumption, and reflects India’s limited success in industrializing at scale.

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India Agriculture as Percent of GDP from 1990s into 2020s

Services have grown rapidly, but they remain reliant on capital and skill intensive, and unable to absorb surplus rural labor in large numbers. As a result, economic growth continues without broad based prosperity. Headline GDP numbers improve, but the underlying structure remains fragile.

India’s central economic scrouge is growth without labor mobility. Until workers move out of low productivity agriculture jobs and into stable non-farm employment at scale, income volatility and weak consumption will remain defining features of the economy. Regardless of how strong the headline growth numbers appear, a national challenge remains.

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Iran, Oil and The Crumbling of a Criminal Dictatorial Wall

by with One Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Iran, Oil and The Crumbling of a Criminal Dictatorial Wall

Step aside for a moment from the conspiracy theorists and let’s consider that the U.S did not take out Maduro of Venezuela in order to facilitate more supply of oil. Let’s consider the possibility that Maduro was removed because he did not facilitate free enterprise and ran a criminal enterprise that did not favor the U.S.

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WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 9th January 2026

Venezuela has the largest demonstrated oil reserves in the world, but the U.S has done rather well without it for years. The Trump administration’s move to take over Venezuela deters China and Russia’s influence in the Americas, while also putting another nail in the coffin of the Cuban regime. The word regime is used implicitly to point out that Venezuela, Russia, China and Cuba are all regimes of one sort via their one party ruling systems. Yes, you can argue the United State has returned to an imperialist philosophy, but that doesn’t mean it has dictatorial rule. Some will argue that point, I understand. But let’s step away from the complexity of political biases – including my own – and insights and discuss oil for a moment.

The takeover of the Venezuelan oil infrastructure, which has not happened in full yet via the U.S military action, does not mean U.S oil companies will make trillions of dollars from the adventure immediately. In fact a glut of oil is one of the potential consequences if Venezuela were to return to an open market system with its energy supply. Yes, the price of oil would in theory likely get cheaper. While it can be argued that this will help the U.S consumers, however many U.S producers of the shale oil industry would be put in a difficult spot. Producing oil from shale deposits requires hydraulic fracturing – known as fracking – and is an expensive endeavor. Cheaper oil from Venezuela in other words could put small and medium producers in the U.S out of business if supply becomes too ample

Now let’s turn our attention to Iran and the attempted revolution that is fomenting a reaction from the regime of that nation. Oil supply is certainly at stake for the world, but there is the overwhelmingly important possibility of allowing 90 million plus people to live in a system without repression. As of last night internet and telephone lines have been shuttered by the dictatorial government. There is a legitimate fear that many people protesting for their rights to be free now face the risk of violence and some have already begun to pay with their lives. Freedom is more important than oil for the people of Iran and Venezuela. It should also be pointed out that Venezuela and Iran are members of OPEC and this is likely not going to change.

The Trump administration is threatening military action against the Iranian rulers, but it is questionable how the regime of Iran could be overthrown by outside forces if there are not active combat boots the ground. While it may be possible to attempt a Venezuela like mission in Iran, that would be difficult at best considering the regime is already paranoid and on high alert. The civilians of Iran will have to do a lot of the work by themselves. Which means the populace of Iran will need to be able to organize and collectively topple a dictatorship, and this is unlikely to be done by handing out flowers. The regular army of Iran must disobey orders and the police must decide not to participate in violence against the protesters, allowing a seizure of power by the people.

At this juncture it remains difficult to say what will happen in Iran, except to say that there is likely going to be blood spilled. The Berlin Wall fell after decades of Cold War between the West and East. The wall of the Islamic Republic of Iran which was declared in the first week of April 1979 has nearly been running its dictatorship as long as the communists controlled Eastern Europe.

If and it is a big if, the Iranian people are able to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran it would be a game changer the world over. The complexity of the mafia style state that the current dictatorship has controlled not only in the Middle East, but throughout South America and elsewhere via influence with its proxies like Hezbollah is enormous. The dismantling of this network would take longer than the toppling of the Iranian regime. The world is unlikely to ever know in full detail the criminal activity of the current Iranian government and its proxies worldwide.

This is not about oil, it is about freedom. However, if the oil of Iran suddenly came under the control of a Western looking Iran that was unshackled, yes it would add to a vast amount of energy that the world already enjoys, but OPEC would find a way to manage the supply.

If Iran were to join the ranks of free nations and castoff its current leadership the world would benefit greatly. Only nations and proxies that gain from the exploitation of the Iranian dictatorship would worry. If the Iranian dictatorship falls there will not be paradise, but the event would be significant and transform the current state of global affairs.

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India Insider: Strategic Memory and Why Unilateral Power is Resisted

by with One Comment Behavioral SentimentBusinessFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Strategic Memory and Why Unilateral Power is Resisted

After Independence, India was often described as “tilting” toward the Soviet Union. In reality, this was the outcome of India’s pursuit of Non-Alignment at a time when the United States was actively backing perceived rogue actors in South Asia, most notably Pakistan. What appeared as ideological preference was, in fact, strategic necessity born of hard experience.

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The Soviet Union supported India on core security concerns when few others would. The first major Soviet defense deal was not merely a weapons sale. It included licensed production in India through Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, full technology transfer, and made India the first non-Communist country to receive the MiG-21. This distinction mattered. India was treated as a sovereign partner capable of absorbing technology, not as a dependent client expected to align unquestioningly.

By contrast, Washington’s alignment with Pakistan was driven by Cold War geopolitics rather than South Asian stability. Despite repeated military coups, wars with India, and regional destabilization, the United States armed Pakistan, provided diplomatic cover during conflicts, and sustained the relationship through military rule and nuclear proliferation. These experiences deeply shaped India’s strategic culture and explain its enduring emphasis on autonomy, redundancy, and diversified partnerships rather than alliance dependency.

This history is one of the central reasons India resists Washington dictating regional dynamics. South Asia, in New Delhi’s view, is not a chessboard for external powers to reorder at will.

Democratic Republic of the Congo Example

The same pattern is visible beyond Asia. Take the Democratic Republic of Congo. After decades of horrific colonial exploitation, the Belgians realized by the mid-20th century that they could not hold on indefinitely and exited abruptly, having never prepared the country for self-rule. What they left behind was not independence, but a political vacuum. The United States and the United Nations intervened, but their actions were shaped less by concern for Congolese society than by geopolitical rivalry, ideological competition, and racial hierarchy.

The assassination of Patrice Lumumba destroyed the Republic of the Congo’s (as it was known then) only credible attempt at building a unified nationalist state at independence. The dictatorship of Mobutu Sese Seko that followed did not merely fail to develop institutions; it actively hollowed them out. Corruption became a governing principle, loyalty replaced competence, and the state turned into a vehicle for extraction. Today’s instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is not a governance failure in isolation—it is the predictable outcome of a political system designed to rule without building state capacity. For countries like India, this is not ancient history, it is a warning.

Washington’s unilateralism reinforces this mistrust:

The recent military operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro without U.S Congress authorization, international legal justification, or an imminent threat would have been unthinkable as recently as the first Trump administration. It became possible in 2026 only because of congressional capitulation, judicial immunity, and the transformation of an apolitical defense establishment into a politicized instrument of executive power. To much of the world, this signals that restraint is no longer embedded in American decision making.

Europe exposes another contradiction. The post war order was built on liberal democracy and collective security through NATO. When that order is weakened by unilateral action, trust erodes, even among allies expected to align automatically.

Even before Trump, the U.S – India relationship remained cordial rather than fully strategic. Before 9/11, India was the most natural regional ally against Al-Qaeda, yet Washington lacked patience and local understanding to navigate India’s complex democracy and nationalism. That failure was not tactical, it was conceptual.

India’s neutrality today is deliberate:

It prioritizes diplomacy over military actions that violate international law. India sees a multipolar world emerging, not as disorder, but as the end of unchecked unilateral supremacy. This is not ambiguity. It is a strategic memory.

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U.S National Security, Part 3: Don’t Underemphasize Freedom

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

U.S National Security, Part 3: Don't Underemphasize Freedom

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 30th of December via The Angry Demagogue.

 
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Conclusion

The post-Cold War world that the Strategy Paper tries to figure out is much more than the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of China. One of the main goals of the Trump administration is to turn the clock back on “globalization”, be it via tariffs, other economic ways or even, military means.

While the world is panicking over AI’s destruction of good white collar jobs, it has, paradoxically, created a world where the auto industry can’t find enough qualified mechanics at nice six figure salaries. Not even ten years ago the journalists were haranguing out of work blue collar workers with “go learn to code”, the beer guzzling crew can now tell the tearful journalists and Hollywood “writers” who can’t write better than AI to “go learn how to weld” (or at least handle a screwdriver). But the strategic issues we are facing go beyond manufacturing jobs.

The challenge to the United States and to other free countries is how to handle a new reality where massive debt threatens the diminution, if not the destruction, of the life style we have all come to take for granted and where revanchist regimes don’t quite understand that their power and “prestige” is a result of what has been built in those free countries they want to replace. China, like Russia, Iran, Turkey, Qatar and the non-state actors like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Moslem Brotherhood and others don’t quite understand that while they can use, and even sometimes improve on what freedom has provided them, they will stagnate once they attain their goal of defeating and destroying the free world.

As advanced as China becomes and even if it flies to the moon, overtakes the United States in AI and quantum computing and manages to make the United States into only the breadbasket of the world, they will stagnate as only free markets and free people can move the world to the next step. Growth can only be accomplished by free people. True enough, the economy often grows in ways that we don’t always like, the alternative is stagnation and a return to the pre-scientific age. For all the talk of “new man” and “progress” and everything else that the Soviet Union strived to create, they produced no medicines, no medical devices and no medical treatments.

Therefore, the defeat of the revanchist world and the preservation of freedom needs to be the paramount goal of American foreign policy. This does not mean the creation of democracies where none have ever existed and it does not mean sending troops in every time a political prisoner is arrested or even a plan to militarily defeat the CCP, but it does mean always supporting free countries against the unfree even when the United States is also “friends” with the unfree one.

This means that it will also give free countries leeway when their interests do not align perfectly with America’s (non-core) interests. America as sole protector of the free world has leverage that America as midwife to a set of regional alliances does not. This is a choice that America can make and a correct reading of the Strategy Paper tells us that the United States no longer wants to or can be the main power in every region in the world. This means that there needs to be a change in attitude in America so that it cannot force its will on its allies just because there is another contract to be had or another “cause” that has caught the eye of the country’s establishment.

Encouraging regional alliances of free countries such as the new Eastern-Med Alliance that has already been established between Greece, Cyprus and Israel is a prime example. In addition to the economic cooperation there has been joint defense training and there are agreements that will lead to a defense cooperation pact if not a NATO-like security treaty. Turkey is the common competitor, or enemy, of these three countries. Turkey claims certain Greek islands, occupies parts of Cyprus and has designs on Israel as it strives to be the Islamic “liberator” of Jerusalem. There are gas exploration agreements and cooperation and there would have been a pipeline to Europe if the Biden administration had not stopped it (while they approved the Russian-German pipeline).

Italy ought to be a natural member of the East-Med Alliance and maybe the dissolution of NATO will make them realize that they have more in common with Israel and Greece than they think they do. If Italy were to join then that would create a powerful naval and air deterrence of free countries against aggressors in the eastern Mediterranean. The addition of Malta, a small but strategically important country south of Sicily would provide naval bases that could control the sea lanes between north Africa and Europe helping to stem illegal migration and Turkish attempts to control those same lanes. Malta also brings with it a history of defeating Suleiman the Magnificent in a four month siege when the Ottomans tried to conquer this important island. As we stated before, the United States as a “midwife” to alliances cannot instruct countries on their own national interests. That means that allies of the United States will clash but America must always come down on the side of the free countries and not the revanchist power – in this case, Turkey.

There are of course other regional alliances that can come into being and a remake of the post-WWII world is in order. The end of the cold war created economic booms across the globe raising hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, but recent decades have seen an increase in terror and tyranny and that itself needs to be dealt with. If not by the United States alone then by the US along with the regional alliances that the Strategy Paper has highlighted and we have demarcated (partially) here. But concepts like “territorial integrity” (see Syria, Somalia and the rest of Africa) and “sovereignty” have lost their moral imperative as they are used as excuses by tyrants (and their enablers at the UN) to further their cruelty. One of the faults of the old “liberal international order” has been allowing tyrannies the same rights and respect as free countries. During the Cold War, when nuclear war loomed, this might have made sense but after the fall of the Soviet Union these “principles” have created more harm than good.

In the National Security Strategy of the administration, the words “free” and “freedom” appear twenty times, but never in the context of an alliance of free countries. While it speaks of freedom of religion and speech and free markets it never speaks of the need to put allies that are free ahead of friends that are not free. Allies are those countries that share values and will come to your aid because of that. Friends, in international affairs, are those that look to short-term gain and have no desire to further your values or interests. There is no reason that the United States, in its current fiscal condition needs to fight the fight of freedom around the world alone, but neither can it abandon that fight in the pursuit of short-term contracts or frivolous causes.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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India Insider: Growth Without Development an Inequality Trap

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Growth Without Development an Inequality Trap

An India and Latin America Comparison

India’s strong headline growth reflects a rapid expansion of aggregate output. Yet this growth often coexists with weak job creation, uneven human capital formation, and persistent inequality. This coexistence is not a temporary anomaly. It reflects a deeper political & economic structure in which inequality itself constrains development, rather than merely emerging as a byproduct of slow growth.

This mechanism is similar to Latin America. In unequal political economies, rising income concentration encourages elites to exit from public systems like education, healthcare, transport, and social insurance. Once affluent groups no longer depend on public provision, political incentives to strengthen these systems weaken fiscal capacity erodes, public services deteriorate, and inequality becomes self-reinforcing.

Latin America’s experience illustrates this dynamic clearly. Despite periods of high growth driven by industrialization, commodity booms, or financial liberalization, many countries failed to build universal public systems. Elites relied on private schools, private healthcare, and offshore financial arrangements, while the majority depended on chronically underfunded public institutions. The result was a narrow tax base, weak state capacity, and growth that was volatile and socially shallow.

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Figure concept adapted from book, “The cost of Inequality in Latin America” by Diego Sanchez-Ancochea

India increasingly shows signs of a similar trajectory. Public spending on health remains around 1.2 – 1.4 percent of GDP. Government expenditures on education is around 3 percent of GDP, which is low not just by OECD standards, but comparative to many middle income Latin American economies. Out of pocket healthcare costs account for roughly 45 – 50 percent of total health spending in India, among the highest shares globally. These figures point to a systematic private substitution over public provisions, a hallmark of elite exit.

Implications of Elite Leaving Public Systems

Withdrawal from public systems has direct implications for growth quality. When education and healthcare remain uneven, the diffusion of skills and productivity across the workforce is limited. Growth then concentrates in capital intensive or skill intensive enclaves, while large segments of the labor force remain trapped in low productivity informal employment. India’s employment elasticity of growth has remained structurally low, estimated at below 0.2 in recent decades, meaning that even high output growth generates relatively few jobs.

This structural weakness is reinforced by the nature of Indian capitalism. Like much of Latin America, India’s growth model rewards scale, access, and regulatory navigation more than technological risk taking. Firms that can manage land acquisition, compliance complexity, market concentration, and political connections earn higher returns than those that invest in frontier innovation. Private investment in research and development remains modest: total R&D spending in India is around 0.6 – 0.7 percent of GDP, with a particularly weak contribution from the private sector. By contrast, East Asian economies that achieved solid employment growth invested 2.0 – 4.0 percent of GDP in R&D during their catch up phases.

This outcome produces poor job growth and entrenched dual labor markets, which is also another Latin American hallmark. A relatively small formal sector benefits from capital strengthening and productivity gains, but the majority of workers remain in informal employment with stagnant wages and weak social protection. Gradually this weakens domestic demand and increases reliance on credit, exports, or asset inflation to sustain growth. Latin America’s history also shows that such growth patterns are inherently fragile.

India Vulnerability and Structural Risks

Narrow tax bases limit counter-cyclical policies. High inequality constrains mass consumption. Credit expansion often substitutes for income growth, increasing financial vulnerability. India has thus far avoided repeated balance of payments or sovereign debt crises, but the underlying structural risks look similar to Latin America. Growth looks strong on paper, yet remains vulnerable to shocks and has been slow to translate into broad based societal gains.

India differs from economies that have escaped their inequality traps, like East Asia and Northern Europe, because of poor development sequencing. These successful regional giants expanded universal public education, healthcare, and social insurance early, before inequality became politically entrenched. Elite dependence on public systems sustained fiscal capacity and productivity diffusion, allowing growth to create gainful employment.

India’s Social and Economic Dualism

India’s economic liberalization grew before consolidating universal public provisions. As growth has accelerated, inequality has widened and the exit of elites has deepened from public centers. An opportunity to create inclusive institutions during this early growth phase is missing for parts of the society.

The implication is clear. High growth alone does not guarantee development. When inequality weakens public systems and limits fiscal capacity, this discourages technological risk taking and produces inadequate job growth. Output expansion becomes narrow and periodically fragile. Latin America’s experience is a warning. Without building strong public institutions and reshaping incentives toward broad based innovation, India risks portraying impressive headline growth while vast disparity persists.

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U.S National Security, Part 2: Regional Alliances – Europe

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsIndia

U.S National Security, Part 2: Regional Alliances - Europe

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 25th of December via The Angry Demagogue.

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As we continue our tour of the administration’s National Security Strategy we will stay with “part III: What Are America’s Available Means to Get What We Want?” and move to the sixth bullet point: “A broad network of alliances, with treaty allies and partners in the world’s most strategically important regions” and work through the important regions that the strategy documents – Asia, Europe, the Mideast and Africa. For good or for bad we will need to split these regions up since the key point is forming coalitions that can handle their actual region. Sweden can’t be part of a coalition to protect Italy’s interests in the Mediterranean and Japan won’t be protecting Singapore.

Some U.S allied countries, like Australia, Israel and India will be involved in multiple regions helping lead alliances in all areas important to them. With that in mind we will point out the first mistake of the discussion on regions and that is Europe. We will suggest something here that would not usually come from the mouth of a hawk and pessimist and that is that NATO has no real mission and needs to be replaced by a series of alliances that make more sense. While the fear during the Cold War was a Warsaw Pact ground invasion into Germany and beyond which would have required the totality of American and European forces, Europe now is facing a Russia that could not conquer Ukraine in nearly four years of war. That is not to say that Russia is not to be feared only that each part of Europe needs to ally to face a Russian onslaught in its own theatre.

Italy is not going to send troops to Sweden to prevent an attack and Norway won’t be helping Greece in any fight. Turkey is a country that other NATO countries fear more than trust, especially regarding Russia.

In short, NATO needs to be broken up into different alliances where each country will be allied with countries whose fall would affect its national security. The United States can either be a signatory to these alliances or it can decide how involved it wants to get in any conflagration depending on its own interests at that time. It can decide to position ground troops in the countries, supply air cover or, as in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, help with missile defense and in providing the final blow with weapons only America has. Or – it can decide that it will never participate. One hopes that that won’t happen, but each alliance will need to be ready to fight on its own.

We can include France and the U.K as large countries with advanced armed forces as allies to all of these alliances. France certainly can contribute air power to each of the alliances that are faced against Russia. As for the U.K, it is difficult to know where that country is going but its navy and air force are still powerful.

Today we will deal with north, central and western Europe.

The Baltic Alliance

This would be an alliance that includes Poland, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and would provide cover for land, air and naval battles. Each of these countries, with the exception of Germany, has a border with Russia and all are on the Baltic Sea – a key waterway for them and for Russia.

An alliance of these countries would force them to concentrate on those areas necessary for their defense. An incursion, for example into Finland would force Poland to mass forces on its border with Russia and Belarus (Poland borders Russia in Kaliningrad which is separated from Russia proper by Lithuania) and Germany to move forces to Poland. All countries could also contribute ground forces to Finland as well as naval and air power.

The only thing missing is the lack of a nuclear umbrella. That is no small issue but can be dealt with by support or threats from France or the U.K.

The Atlantic Alliance

Aside from helping the Baltic Alliance, France and the U.K will have major responsibility along with the Netherlands for patrolling the North Atlantic and, with help from Portugal, and Spain the South Atlantic. As the Atlantic Ocean can be considered one of America’s seas, this alliance will need to have the close cooperation if not outright membership of the United States. Canada too, will need to be part of this alliance. We can include the increasingly important Arctic Ocean into this alliance’s responsibilities.

As we move towards the south Atlantic countries such as Morocco, can be included as well as other western African allies of the west. An alliance like that could encourage western African countries to abandon close security and economic ties with China and Russia. The “border” of this alliance would be that squiggly line in the middle of the Atlantic that separates the Eastern and Western hemispheres.

The Central European Alliance

We can look at the smaller central European countries that formed the heart of what was the Hapsburg Empire but are not front line countries bordering Russia – Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Serbia and Bulgaria – and we have an alliance that, backed by Germany, Poland and the United States, would create a further deterrence to Russian encroachment into Europe proper.

Where, do you ask does Ukraine fall in this European alliance structure? That answer will have to come from the major European powers in concert with the United States. Adding Ukraine to the Baltic alliance might be viewed as another attempt to NATO-ize them by the Russians. However, attaching them to the less threatening Central European Alliance of smaller countries might be the excuse and “victory” that Putin would need to end the war. But we are getting ahead of ourselves here. Ukraine is a problem that can only be solved if the West decides to actively join the fight against Russia (unlikely) or when Putin and Russia get tired of the fight and look for a way out that could allow them to claim victory (more likely than the former, but sadly, a long way off).

The Administration’s concentration on regions and how certain countries can become leaders in support of western and American interests is correct – but the breakdown of the regions has to go beyond the post WWII world. The place of America in the post-cold war world, with a China that wants to challenge America’s economic and military interests and leadership needs to break down old alliances into more manageable and logical pieces.

The wild card in all of this is, of course, the will of the European powers to take their own defense seriously. The Baltic Alliance we spoke about seems to be filled with countries that understand the threat from Russia, but do they recognize the threat to them from the alignment, the Axis if you will, of Russia, Iran, North Korea and China? And of more importance have they yet come to understand the threat to their countries, as they know them, from open immigration and from their own abhorrence of families? The former is something only the governments can handle, the latter though, must come from the people themselves.

A whole generation (or two in many instances) of Europeans have grown up not only as “only children” but in families that have no aunts and no uncles, no cousins and only very elderly grandparents, if that. They have grown up in other words without families. Will the young generation see the importance of families to themselves and their countries or will they continue the nihilistic lives that they parents have “sanctified”? Religious institutions, too will have a major role in this challenge. No amount of “parental leave” and childcare subsidies will convince the young to marry and have children – will only come from a change in the culture. Is Europe up to it?

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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Fed Today, Tmrw and Mid-Term with Changing of Guard

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Fed Today, Tmrw and Mid-Term with Changing of Guard

The Federal Reserve will cut its Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points in a handful of hours, that is unless they want to cause a major selling attack on Wall Street and pandemonium in Forex and gold. The Fed which spoke about uncertainty in last month’s FOMC Statement and utterly refused to give guidance about today’s decision, has had the ignition regarding an interest rate cut delivered with nearly 100% certainty because inflation for the moment remains tame.

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U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 12th December 2025

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will leave the Fed in May of 2026. This isn’t a subjective opinion, he is leaving because he is not going to be reappointed by the White House. President Trump has made it clear he wants a lower interest rate and that he believes the Fed has failed to be proactive. Given Trump’s propensity for saying outlandish things, he is not wrong about Powell’s overtly cautious posture. The Fed could have cut the Federal Funds Rate in the early summer and refused to initiate.

Financial institutions have factored the 25 basis point interest rate cut into Forex already. Again, unless if for some reason they want to initiate a massive selloff in the equity indices and cause the 10 Year Treasuries yields to rise like a wildfire, the Fed needs to cut today. Day traders need to understand the first couple of reactions following the FOMC Statement tonight should not be wagered upon without deep pockets and steel stomachs.

There are three more FOMC meetings scheduled for the Fed after today’s decision while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remains in office. The 28th of January, the 18th of March and 29th of April are the listed FOMC Statement announcement dates, this before the June meeting which Jerome Powell will not helm. While some analysts strongly believe the Fed will find it difficult to cut interest rates early in 2026, the potential for a shift in sentiment and open disagreement regarding the Federal Funds Rate could turn intriguing in late January. If inflation remains steady via the Core PCE Price Index it would not be a shock to see another interest rate cut next month.

Caution has prevailed in Forex the past couple of months. Major currencies like the EUR and GBP have lingered within known ranges. Yes, the JPY has incrementally lost value due to BoJ policy. President Trump cannot make the Fed decide what to do, but he can certainly keep appointing folks who agree with his policies and approach to enterprise. If Powell does not outright say an interest rate cut is impossible for next month’s FOMC decision, U.S economic data that will be generated over the next handful of weeks could deliver enough impetus. Let’s keep in mind ladies and gentlemen that holiday trading will come into full force after next week’s price action.

The Fed’s borrowing rate essentially stands at 4.00% for the moment. After today’s rate decision the Fed Fund Rate should be at 3.75%. And for the moment there is little justification to not make the borrowing rate 3.50% in late January. As economic data presents itself now via the PCE Price index and CPI and PPI statistics, there is reason to believe a more proactive Fed is on the horizon as the pressure is turned up on Jerome Powell.

Perhaps nothing will happen in January, but if inflation remains tame not only will Jerome Powell be criticized by the White House, but he may also face a rather public debate from Fed members who do not agree with his cautious approach to interest rate policy. A weaker USD in Forex against many major currencies mid-term appears to be a real possibility. The ability of the EUR/USD to linger within a cautious middling range may be an indicator that financial institutions have built a mechanism which will allow them to become stronger buyers. Dangerous as it is to predict a timetable, the EUR/USD over 1.17000 would not be a surprise in the weeks to come – at least to me. Let’s see where behavioral sentiment takes us.

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Digesting Holiday and Markets to Come as Fed Looms Next Week

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentCommodities

Digesting Holiday and Markets to Come as Fed Looms Next Week

Day traders trying to gauge markets may be feeling a bit of angst for the moment. Always wanting to participate when record highs are being made in the stock markets, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain under their respective apexes from late October and early November. Though the markets have produced gains recently, they have not come particularly easily for those who like to ride momentum waves. As always timeframes matter, it is often easier to make mistakes and be impatient when short-term wagers factor into decision making.

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S&P 500 Index Six Month Chart as of 2nd December 2025

Gold has done well the past couple of weeks, regaining its upwards traction, but also remains under its apex values. The Federal Reserve will release its FOMC interest rate decision on the 10th of December, and this is what many in the markets may be waiting for in order to make their last big bets for the year per speculative plays.

The Forex market like equities and commodities continue to provide choppy behavior. The ISM Manufacturing numbers from the U.S came in below expectations yesterday. Retail Sales data and Consumer Confidence numbers last week from the States came in below expectations too. There will be jobs statistics via the ADP report on Wednesday and an ISM Services figure. Thursday will see U.S weekly Unemployment Claims. Friday will provide a rather interesting clue for Forex traders and likely influence bond yields when the Core PCE Price Index reading is provided – which the Federal Reserve pays quite a bit of attention regarding their interest rate decisions. The Consumer Sentiment Preliminary University of Michigan data will also be seen on Friday.

As Tuesday starts, day traders should also beware that full market volumes will emerge, this after last week’s Thanksgiving holiday in the States and perhaps a slow return to offices yesterday. The markets will provide plenty of action over the next couple of weeks, before the inevitable Christmas and New Year’s trading doldrums begin.

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India Insider: Nifty Defense Index Surges in 2025 Rearmament

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCorporateFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Nifty Defense Index Surges in 2025 Rearmament

2025 has marked a defining moment for defense equities, both globally and in India. The Nifty India Defence (Defense) Index, which tracks the country’s leading defense manufacturers, has surged sharply on the back of robust order flows, a structural policy shift, and increasingly volatile geopolitical conditions. This rise is not an isolated event but part of a broader global rearmament cycle that is reshaping the defense industrial landscape.

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Nifty India Defence (Defense) Index One Year Chart as of 20th November 2025

India’s defense sector has been one of the standout performers in the domestic equity market. By mid-2025, the Nifty Defense Index had risen more than 25% year to date, outperforming most sectoral indices. This rally is primarily anchored in strong capital expenditure by the Government of India, which continues to accelerate indigenous military modernization. The Defense Ministry’s approvals which is running into tens of thousands of crores have expanded visibility for companies such as HAL, Bharat Electronics, Bharat Dynamics, and shipbuilding PSUs (Public Sector Undertakings). For investors, the nature of long durations within defense order books has provided earnings stability at a time when other manufacturing sectors have been grappling with cyclical softness.

The second driver has been a multi-year strategic shift toward import substitution. India’s reliance on foreign weapons systems has long strained its current accounts and created operational vulnerabilities. However, the ongoing indigenization push, reinforced by Production Linked Incentive schemes, procurement embargoes on foreign systems, and export incentives, has fundamentally realigned the sector. Defense exports have crossed record levels, and Indian firms are increasingly integrated into global supply chains for electronics, avionics, and ammunition.

Global Industrial Defense Rebirth

But the domestic story is tightly interconnected with developments abroad. The global defense market is undergoing its most significant expansion since the post 9/11 decade. Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Red Sea shipping crisis, conflict in the Middle East, and a renewed great power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific have pushed countries to reassess defense readiness. NATO’s decision in 2025 to raise defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 5% by 2035 has far reaching implications. This commitment translates into trillions of dollars in additional defense outlays over the coming decade, making Europe one of the fastest-growing defense markets.

Companies such as Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman are already reporting record order inflows. Rheinmetall, Germany’s largest defense company, expects its revenues to quintuple by 2030, reflecting unprecedented demand for advanced artillery, ammunition, and combat vehicles. The United States, meanwhile, continues to channel significant funding into hypersonic, missile defense, and drone systems as competition with China intensifies.

India’s Edge in Rearmaments and Technology

This global rearmament wave has a direct spillover effect on India. International supply chain shortages particularly for semiconductors, propulsion systems, and munitions have created opportunities for Indian firms to plug capability gaps. With a cheaper cost base and growing technological sophistication, Indian defense manufacturers are emerging as viable exporters in segments such as UAVs, naval platforms, and electronic warfare systems.

In this environment, the rally in the Nifty Defense Index is not merely speculative exuberance, but a significant reflection of structural and synchronized global demand. As defense has evolved from a low beta sector to a strategic growth industry, India’s integration into the global defense economy positions its companies for sustained earnings expansion over the next decade.

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India Insider: Reserve Bank of India Intervention is Limited

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Reserve Bank of India Intervention is Limited

After weeks of steady appreciation due to Reserve Bank of India intervention on the 15th of October, the Indian Rupee has now returned to the same 88.72 levels against the USD before the policy action was enacted. The RBI’s recent offensive against speculators may have calmed the market temporarily, but it reflects a reactionary and short-term approach to deeper structural pressures facing India’s external administrative policies regarding the USD/INR.

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USD/INR Three Month Chart as of 5th November 2025

Despite the Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to influence the cash forward market, where Dollar shorts rose by 6 billion USD in September to $59 billion, fundamentals suggest that Rupee weakness is not purely speculative. It is a rational market adjustment due to rising trade barriers amid U.S tariffs on India’s merchandise exports. The added uncertainty regarding trade caused the Rupee to naturally absorb external shocks. Merchandise exports to the U.S fell 12% in September year on year, according to official India data, prompting some calls for government relief.

India’s Foreign Remittances & H1-B Visa Fee Hike

According to World Bank data, India received about 137.7 billion USD in personal remittances from abroad in 2024. From that amount, around $40 billion is coming from the United States. The Trump administration raised the cost of H1-B visa fees from below 10,000 USD to nearly $100,000. And there is now also an increased likelihood of measures aimed at limiting digitally delivered software services to the U.S from India. These combined measures would substantially reduce Dollar receipts via exports of technology driven software and IT services, as well as remittances from a reduction of workers on temporary U.S visas providing on site services to U.S clients. USD inflow has been crucial for India’s balance of payment’s stability.

Reduction of USD reserves when the trade deficit is already rising because of hikes caused by tariffs on India’s exports would widen the current account deficit. Concerns about a decrease in remittances leading to a potentially significant decline of India’s USD reserve ability is possibly discouraging the India Reserve Bank to voluntarily expend reserves to support the Rupee.

Service Exports Cushion India’s Balance of Payments:

India’s total service exports touched 400 Billion USD over the past year with a predominant amount coming from the U.S. In other words, India has had a $202 billion in services trade surplus over the last 12 months, which covered almost 114% of India’s merchandise trade deficit in 2024-25.

India’s goods trade deficit is matched by a services surplus, plus net foreign personal remittances. This USD equation is under threat because of prolonged paralysis from stubborn US and India trade negotiations debating Russian Oil usage and the U.S demand to allow agricultural products into India.

Foreign Investors Selling Indian Equities

In addition, the Indian Rupee is not getting support from investment portfolio inflows. A shortfall of AI related avenues in the nation’s tech sector, and perhaps because of valuations considered too rich, foreign Investors have pulled 17 billion USD so far this year. This sum is more than any other emerging market, which is eating away at the Reserve Bank of India’s FX reserves too.

Global and India-specific uncertainties spurred by the Trump administration’s actions are setting off a retreat of footloose portfolio capital invested into India’s equity and bond markets. If the Reserve Bank of India was confident that inflows of foreign capital would replenish reserves it would likely help the Indian Rupee, and thus investor confidence coming from abroad.

Policy Irony and the Limits of Intervention

The U.S. remains India’s largest export market, but new levies of 50% tariffs are hurting labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, leather, footwear, and gems & jewelry.

While concerns about imported inflation are valid, the benefits of a weaker Rupee should not be overlooked. A mild depreciation could boost India’s service exports, improve the balance of payments, and partly offset the effects of U.S. tariffs on merchandise exports.

A material improvement in U.S and India trade relations is needed. Until a restoration is achieved in relations and a merchandise surplus is possible, alongside healthy services and remittance inflows occurring again, the Rupee’s weakness is likely to persist. In the meantime, Reserve Bank of India interventions could prove to be a short term tactic that proves vulnerable mid-term to the influence of market forces known and unexpected.

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India Insider: Pharma and Earning Trust Thru Accountability

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

India Insider: Pharma and Earning Trust Thru Accountability

The pharmaceutical industry in India is a global powerhouse, often touted as “best in class.” Nearly 32% of India’s pharma exports go to the United States, and India’s products are renowned for their quality and affordability. Giants like Sun Pharma, Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s and Mankind Pharma cater to millions worldwide. Mankind Pharma, in particular, is celebrated for selling affordable essential medicines, ensuring access for lower-income communities.

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The Opposite Side: A Fatal Flaw

Yet, within India, the same country with world class technology and research, exists a grim paradox: sub-standard drugs that have caused devastating human loss.

This is not a new problem. In 2022, toxic cough syrups made by two Indian companies were linked to the deaths of 70 children in The Gambia and 19 in Uzbekistan. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the products contained excess levels of diethylene glycol (DEG).

A Killer Drug: New Tragedy 2025

The contamination has now hit home with horrifying consequences quite recently. As Frontline magazine detailed, in the Madhya Pradesh State, Rajesh Yaduvansi’s two-year-old daughter, Jayesha, was admitted to a local clinic on September 14th for pain and fever. After temporary relief, her condition worsened. By September 25th, doctors revealed her kidneys had stopped functioning. She was rushed to Nagpur, but tragically died on October 7th from acute kidney failure.

Jayesha was one of at least 24 children who has died since early September across Madhya Pradesh, mostly from Chhindwara and nearby tribal districts. Three more patients remain in critical condition. Most victims came from poor and tribal families. They are the victims of a lethal lapse in quality control.

The culprit was the toxic industrial solvent, diethylene glycol (DEG), which causes kidney failure when ingested. The contaminated cough syrup, Coldrif, was manufactured by Tamil Nadu State based Sresan Pharmaceutical.

Following the cough syrup deaths, authorities formed an SIT (Special Investigation Team) and raided the manufacturer, Sresan Pharmaceutical, near Chennai. The company’s owner, Ranganathan Govindan, has been arrested, and several Madhya Pradesh drug officials have been suspended or transferred.

The Solvent Issue: Cutting Corners

Cough syrups typically use propylene glycol as a solvent. This ingredient exists in two grades: industrial and pharmaceutical. The industrial version, which is cheaper, can contain dangerously high levels of DEG.

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When manufacturers prioritize cost cutting and fail to ensure pharmaceutical grade purity, tragedy follows. This is a profit driven decision that ignores human life and can produce fatalities.

Regulatory Failures and Neglect

India aims to reach developed nation status economy by 2047, but this ambition will ring hollow if it neglects its own people.

The drug control system is fractured. The Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) issues drug licenses, while State authorities are responsible for essential quality checks. In Madhya Pradesh, accountability rests with the Drug Controller and Food and Drug Administration.

The system is fundamentally broken. According to K.R. Ashokan, a former President of the Indian Medical Association (IMA), fewer than 1% of drugs are tested for quality or impurities. Indian citizens face massive risks which are often unreported. While a pharmacovigilance system exists, its national reach is minimal and desperately inadequate for a country of 1.4 billion people.

The Central Government health care expenditure remains under 2% of its GDP and this is far too little for a nation aspiring for global leadership in pharmaceutical research.

A Call for Accountability

This catastrophe has shaken parents’ trust in the medical system, especially among the most vulnerable communities. India has the potential to be a world-class player, but without strong, centralized regulation and comprehensive preventive care, such incidents will continue.

We cannot bring back the 24 children who died due to cough syrup poisoning. This tragedy must serve as a necessary wake-up call, because no parent should ever lose a child to medicines that are meant to heal again.

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Significant Highs All Around as Speculation Grows Frothy

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Significant Highs All Around as Speculation Grows Frothy

Gold, platinum, and the major U.S indices are all flirting with record values. Fast trading is being seen on all fronts, dangerous reversals are also being displayed and causing harm for day traders. The U.S government shutdown remains in full force. Not enough pain has been heard from the U.S public yet which would make politicians pause and actually try to negotiate a deal.

Milestone apex values have been experienced. Gold has produced the 4,000.00 USD per ounce level and sustained value, the Nasdaq 100 toppled 25,000.00 the past two days, but has moved lower for the moment. Conditions for day traders are swift and they need to be careful. And while the U.S government is shuttered, the Federal Reserve is still expected to announce their FOMC interest rate decision on the 29th of October. A Federal Funds Rate cut of 25 basis points is still anticipated.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 8th October 2025

Forex has seen jittery results as the EUR, GBP, JPY have struggled in recent trading versus the USD. And while some people may point to the stellar results and values within Gold and Bitcoin as evidence for safe haven wagers being placed, large speculators are playing a key ingredient in the broad markets too. Investors are certainly looking for value and have a belief that buying now represents a discount compared to what Gold and equity values will be over the long-term. However, day traders should also remember that a large amount of influence in the markets derives via behavioral sentiment, and as record highs are being challenged anxiousness grows regarding potential responses from speculative forces particularly when profit taking remains a part of wagering.

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Nvidia Three Month Chart as of 8th October 2025

While questions and concerns are heard about a possible AI bubble being experienced and too much money being invested in equities like Nvidia, Oracle, Microsoft, etc., folks need to understand long-term investors are gearing their portfolios towards outlooks. Betting on these companies playing a significant role in technological advancements is a long-term viewpoint which works on optimism. Artificial intelligence is important, but the motor that runs AI infrastructure via semiconductors, big data distribution, servers and cybersecurity are crucial. The promise of quantum computing is also experiencing a surge of investment because of a belief in the future.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 8th October 2025

And that is what day traders who are tempted to bet against the trends in the marketplace need to remember. Investors will not bet against Wall Street because of the government shutdown. In fact, they will certainly be heard joking that corporations run more effectively with less government intrusion.

This is not a simple puzzle. Complexity certainly needs to be considered regarding valuations in the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Intriguingly, day traders may want to take a look at the South African Rand too, because technically it continues to be strong against the USD, which is rather out of step and a rather interesting non-correlation. The broad Forex market has lost some its luster for day traders the past year because of a lack of perceived volatility across the board. But volatility may be on the way, the Japanese Yen certainly stands out and should be watched via the USD/JPY and JPY crosses in the coming days and weeks.