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India Insider: Strategic Memory and Why Unilateral Power is Resisted

India Insider: Strategic Memory and Why Unilateral Power is Resisted

After Independence, India was often described as “tilting” toward the Soviet Union. In reality, this was the outcome of India’s pursuit of Non-Alignment at a time when the United States was actively backing perceived rogue actors in South Asia, most notably Pakistan. What appeared as ideological preference was, in fact, strategic necessity born of hard experience.

The Soviet Union supported India on core security concerns when few others would. The first major Soviet defense deal was not merely a weapons sale. It included licensed production in India through Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, full technology transfer, and made India the first non-Communist country to receive the MiG-21. This distinction mattered. India was treated as a sovereign partner capable of absorbing technology, not as a dependent client expected to align unquestioningly.

By contrast, Washington’s alignment with Pakistan was driven by Cold War geopolitics rather than South Asian stability. Despite repeated military coups, wars with India, and regional destabilization, the United States armed Pakistan, provided diplomatic cover during conflicts, and sustained the relationship through military rule and nuclear proliferation. These experiences deeply shaped India’s strategic culture and explain its enduring emphasis on autonomy, redundancy, and diversified partnerships rather than alliance dependency.

This history is one of the central reasons India resists Washington dictating regional dynamics. South Asia, in New Delhi’s view, is not a chessboard for external powers to reorder at will.

Democratic Republic of the Congo Example

The same pattern is visible beyond Asia. Take the Democratic Republic of Congo. After decades of horrific colonial exploitation, the Belgians realized by the mid-20th century that they could not hold on indefinitely and exited abruptly, having never prepared the country for self-rule. What they left behind was not independence, but a political vacuum. The United States and the United Nations intervened, but their actions were shaped less by concern for Congolese society than by geopolitical rivalry, ideological competition, and racial hierarchy.

The assassination of Patrice Lumumba destroyed the Republic of the Congo’s (as it was known then) only credible attempt at building a unified nationalist state at independence. The dictatorship of Mobutu Sese Seko that followed did not merely fail to develop institutions; it actively hollowed them out. Corruption became a governing principle, loyalty replaced competence, and the state turned into a vehicle for extraction. Today’s instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is not a governance failure in isolation—it is the predictable outcome of a political system designed to rule without building state capacity. For countries like India, this is not ancient history, it is a warning.

Washington’s unilateralism reinforces this mistrust:

The recent military operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro without U.S Congress authorization, international legal justification, or an imminent threat would have been unthinkable as recently as the first Trump administration. It became possible in 2026 only because of congressional capitulation, judicial immunity, and the transformation of an apolitical defense establishment into a politicized instrument of executive power. To much of the world, this signals that restraint is no longer embedded in American decision making.

Europe exposes another contradiction. The post war order was built on liberal democracy and collective security through NATO. When that order is weakened by unilateral action, trust erodes, even among allies expected to align automatically.

Even before Trump, the U.S – India relationship remained cordial rather than fully strategic. Before 9/11, India was the most natural regional ally against Al-Qaeda, yet Washington lacked patience and local understanding to navigate India’s complex democracy and nationalism. That failure was not tactical, it was conceptual.

India’s neutrality today is deliberate:

It prioritizes diplomacy over military actions that violate international law. India sees a multipolar world emerging, not as disorder, but as the end of unchecked unilateral supremacy. This is not ambiguity. It is a strategic memory.

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India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

India Insider: Manufacturing Strategy to Create Rural Jobs

Across much of India’s rural landscape, manufacturing remains scarce and finding a solution for this remains a priority. While some towns do have small scale industries that offer jobs, this is still limited. As of financial year 2023, agriculture accounts for only 16% of India’s GDP, down sharply from around 35% in the 1990s, due to a structural shift toward services and manufacturing.

A large share of rural families still depend on agriculture, often engaging in farming and irrigation with modern equipment. However, marketing their produce remains a persistent challenge. Meanwhile, many rural workers are engaged in low-wage trade and commerce, often in informal settings such as small shops and roadside businesses. These roles typically offer limited income and little upward mobility. Falling real wages have pushed many to migrate to India’s urban centers or venture overseas to Singapore, Malaysia, and the Gulf countries in search of better livelihoods, aided by favorable exchange rates.

Capitalism and Efficient Manufacturing

Adam Smith, in his seminal work The Wealth of Nations wrote that, ‘it is not by gold or silver, but by labor that all the wealth of nations is created’. This fundamental idea underpins the modern economic thought that wealth is not derived merely from money, but from the productive capacity of people.

When capital is invested in a capitalist enterprise, it generates profits for the owner, provides wages for employees, and delivers returns (such as dividends) for shareholders. But this cycle of value creation depends on active and efficient enterprise, particularly manufacturing which has been missing or underdeveloped in many parts of rural India.

Unlike countries such as the United States, where people readily relocate across States, India faces some unique challenges. Like the European Union, India is a union of diverse linguistic and cultural regions. It is uncommon for a small business owner from Himachal Pradesh to directly access markets in Tamil Nadu or Karnataka due to language barriers, cultural differences, and logistical constraints. These frictions further isolate rural producers from wider markets.

Garment Industry Values in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam

Strategic Solutions and the Role of State Governments

To revive rural economies, business people along with their state governments must identify and invest in strategic sectors that create jobs and add value. Kerala is a fine example: as one of India’s top spice-producing States, Kerala has the potential to establish local industries focused on spice processing, packaging, and export. Coordination between agriculture and manufacturing can generate employment, stimulate local economies, and enhance foreign exchange earnings.

Albert Hirschman, a development economist, highlighted this approach through his theory of unbalanced growth and economic integration. He argued that certain industries have strong reciprocal connections with other parts of the economy. By prioritizing sectors with good synergy potential, developing countries can achieve significant growth even with limited resources.

Growing competition from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam which both enjoy favorable trade agreements do pose new challenges, this must be taken seriously by India and create a focus on forward looking international commerce. There will always be competition from distant enterprises and nations, this must be accepted and planned for via commercial insights.

Within India is Tiruppur, a city in Tamil Nadu, known as the ‘Manchester of South India’ due to its vibrant textile industry. The city has created an ecosystem of manufacturing that consistently offers higher real wages compared to other towns in the region. It has successfully shifted labor from agriculture to industry, thereby increasing productivity and income. It is a bright example and defines one way to make progress.

Protecting New Industries and Creation of Success

In his book How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor, economist Erik Reinert argues that nations develop not just by doing what they are currently good – such as agriculture or mining, but by nurturing industries that can become more productive long-term. Typically manufacturing and technology sectors lead to greater innovation and economic resilience.

Reinert provides numerous examples, like South Korea’s emerging growth in steel and its automotive industries, and Ireland’s rise in information technology where specific protections and support for young industries has led to long-term prosperity.

India’s rural transformation cannot rely on New Delhi alone. State governments along with business people must take the lead by identifying sectors that have the potential to foster high growth and employment. Helping to create local value chains, investing in infrastructure, training, and market access will build resilience in these communities. By encouraging small-scale manufacturing and leveraging regional strengths, the country’s rural areas can become engines of economic growth.

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India Insider: Concern IT Empire is at Risk in Age of AI

India Insider: Concern IT Empire is at Risk in Age of AI

When China’s DeepSeek announced its Generative AI program as a rival to U.S based ChatGPT, the world paid close attention. In fact, Nasdaq bellwether stock Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, took a hit because the DeepSeek product was made with less expensive chip processors compared to ChatGPT’s infrastructure, which uses Nvidia’s GPU technology.

In North America and Europe, DeepSeek’s rollout was met with much surprise and intrigue. And the true ‘poster child’ of India’s post-liberalization era, the IT (Information Technology) sector has been facing its own challenges and was also caught off guard. India’s IT sector employs some 5.3 million people and helps maintain its current account balance sheet by earning crucial foreign exchange reserves. The top four major IT companies have a combined market cap of $300 billion USD, larger than India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, which stands around $238 billion USD.

Nifty IT Index One Year Chart as of 29th July 2025

India’s IT Business Model and Artificial Intelligence

Indian IT companies operate on a model of software servicing for offshore clients, typically via medium to long-term contracts. Their business operations are embedded across the globe thanks to affordable pricing and the quality of services provided by Indian software engineers. Now, this model is being threatened by the rise of Generative AI and taking it lightly would be a serious mistake by India.

Shares of major IT companies ­- TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCL have delivered lackluster returns since their post pandemic rally. Since Covid high valuations amid deal pessimism were a concern. Now those worries are amplified by AI and the disruption it brings to their business models. Software exporters remain the worst performers, the Nifty IT index is down 18% year-to-date, underperforming the broader index consequentially.

The recent release of Q1 fiscal year 2026 numbers from these four IT companies have been met with skepticism regarding forecasted outlook. Analysts noted that Indian IT firms are grappling with margin pressures amid persistent macroeconomic headwinds and rising threats from AI-driven productivity improvements. In response, companies have started to protect their margins with layoffs, TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) shed around 2% of its workforce this past weekend which could affect more than 12,000 jobs.

Time For India’s IT Sector to Become Proactive

Pricing models that IT companies charge customers are changing from long to short-term flexible contracts like ‘pay as you go’ over traditional fixed annual licensing models. Despite changing CEOs in several of these companies over the last few years, animal spirits are failing thus far to innovate AI products that can enhance the bottom line. Instead, companies prefer share buybacks and paying stellar dividends to appease the shareholders rather than to invest in R&D especially when their core model is under threat.

Hang Seng Index One Year Chart as of 29th July 2025

The euphoria surrounding India’s $5.4 trillion equity market is cooling in 2025, amid concerns over slowing earnings growth, elevated valuations, and tariff related uncertainty. At the same time, sentiment towards Hong Kong’s listed Chinese shares are improving with global fund managers rapidly reallocating capital to that market. The Hang Seng Index has delivered an impressive 27% return year-to-date. Meanwhile, India’s stock market still lacks depth for investors seeking meaningful exposure to the booming Artificial Intelligence theme.

Indian IT companies excel at scaling and delivering AI solutions for global clients, but they do not own the core models, platforms, or consumer data needed to become true AI disruptors like China’s tech giants. The industry contributes approximately 7.5% to India’s GDP and remains the primary employment avenue for engineering graduates. It’s time for India’s IT sector to proactively address the growing AI threat posed by global competitors.

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An Expanding Axis – Will Egypt and Pakistan Become Members?

An Expanding Axis - Will Egypt and Pakistan Become Members?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 26th of May via The Angry Demagogue.

China seems to be taking advantage of the transition from the Obama-Biden appeasement based foreign policy to the Trump commercial based system. Whereas Obama-Biden had no problem punishing allies that dared to oppose the US-EU appeasement and woke revolution, Trump is looking to create alliances based on commerce – and threatens allies that don’t go along. While the Obama-Biden policy failed utterly and arguably caused the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the Trump administration seems to be playing for time as it restructures the global security order.

China however does not seem to care to wait and are stretching their sway not only in the South China Sea but westward towards the Middle East. The four member Axis – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea seems to be expanding to other countries with strong military dictatorships. Egypt and Pakistan will be the next members of the Axis. While much of China’s belt and road policy deals with bankrupting poor, weak countries, they seem now to concentrate on strong military dictatorships. Egypt and Pakistan are being pried from the western camp as we speak.

Pakistan has, for awhile not been firmly in the western camp. It was a cold war U.S ally as India, while democratic, sided with the Soviets on most international issues. While the US was busy in Afghanistan, the Pakistanis played double agent. Now that the U.S is not in the region and the U.S and India have become closer, Pakistan is now firmly in the Chinese camp.

In addition to Pakistan, Egypt becoming the next major member of the Axis.

Let’s take a few steps back and examine the burgeoning relationship between Egypt – a military dictatorship and Communist China. As we have written China and Egypt had joint military maneuvers that included deliberate violations of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty guaranteed by the United States. Egypt, in thumbing its nose not only at Israel but at the United States, allowed Chinese planes to approach the Israeli border in order to test Israeli reaction to a possible invasion. Multiple Chinese military cargo jets flew in undisclosed hardware in the days leading up to the maneuvers.

Three more Chinese Y-20 cargo planes landed in Egypt last week again, carrying unknown hardware. At least one of these planes came from Pakistan. Egypt also seems to be signing major arms deals with France as Macron reeks of desperation in his attempt to remain relevant – but a de Gaulle he is not, and he will not be able to create a force or policy independent of the U.S. Egypt will be glad to take advanced French weaponry while it creates a stronger alliance with China.

Back to Pakistan one has to wonder if the Pakistan-Indian flareup a prelude to what can happen in other theatres – or worse, a purposeful conflagration to test Chinese weapons systems in actual combat and keep the West on its back feet? According to most reports they were able to shoot down between 3 and 5 of France’s most advanced Rafal fighters without even entering Indian territory. The confrontation started with a heinous terrorist attack against Indians in Kashmir by a terror group associated with the Pakistani armed forces. India claims that Pakistan is directly involved in the attack. If so, this would not have been the first one.

The downing of the Indian French built Rafal fighters by Pakistan’s Chinese produced 10-C was, according to expert reports, not just or even mainly superior piloting but with a Chinese strategy and technology that includes all aspects of air power – including recognition of the target, locking on and attack from distances in what an American air expert called a perfect air based killing machine. This would seem to be the first real test of Chinese advanced air-power and it something that needed to be done before any invasion of Taiwan. This may not test their own pilots but it does test the strategy and the technology.

China has a main medium term goal here and it is not a secret. They are planning to take Taiwan by force and need to make sure their soldiers, sailors and hardware are up to the job. They have seen how poorly the Russian army has performed and have seen how Israel has dismantled Iran’s defenses and swatted away Iran’s offensive attacks. China has not fought a major war for decades and for all the advances they say they have made – all have been untested. Until now.

China will not risk a war with India itself but would be more than happy to have its proxy involved. Chinese fighters and their new “over the horizon” missiles are key in their plans to deter the U.S from defending Taiwan – or in defeating U.S naval airpower if the U.S does get actively involved. However, as close as French technology is to America’s it is not the same and the one country that seems to have taken U.S technology to the next level is Israel. How would Chinese weaponry due against American arms in the hands of an air force equivalent in skill and bravery to the American air forces? That has yet to be tested but that brings us back to Egypt. Is it in China’s interests for Egypt to make a major break with the U.S at China’s urging much as they made a break with the Soviet Union at America’s urging? Of course. Would that mean that China might help Egypt provoke a military confrontation with Israel in order to test Chinese arms and relieve pressure on Iran? Maybe.

On to Iran then, where it does not seem that the Americans or Israelis understand the nature of the Iranian-Chinese relationship. Not only does China get the bulk of its oil (subsidized) from Iran but they have just completed a rail link from Xinjiang, China to Teheran, Iran – running through four countries. This rail line can ship oil as well as other cargo, cutting into the American (and Indian) naval superiority around the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. The assumption by military planners has always been that the U.S can cut off Chinese access to oil, if necessary. That is no longer the case.

China is not standing still – they are expanding their axis of dictatorships to countries in which the army is in control. Pakistan and Egypt qualify. Iran, while a theocracy is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. No matter the “deal” that the Trump administration negotiates with Iran they will not be pried away from Iran. China has more to offer an ideological dictatorship then commercial deals with the United States. What the alleged realists in foreign policy refuse to understand is that dictatorships have no interest in commercial success if it weakens their grip on power. They are interested in deals that enrich their regimes since that also strengthens their grip on their people.

The trillion of so dollars in deals that the U.S has now made with the Persian Gulf states ensures that America remains a player in the middle east. Those who think that the Mideast is a tertiary region at best – after Asia and South America – need to rethink their strategies. As China closes in on control of the world from the Pacific to the Mediterranean the U.S is left with just two military powers it can depend on – Israel and India – to help defend its old/new commercial interests. It is not only oil – it is not Boeing jets, Nvidia chips and many other products that are moving from the US to the Gulf as opposed from the Gulf to the U.S. The U.S is no longer a commercial client of the Gulf states but the country who needs to protect its clients. The relationship has changed but the security relationship has only gotten more important.

The addition of Egypt and Pakistan to the Axis means that the Chinese threat has expanded. They are not giving up on Taiwan, nor are they giving up on South America and the Pacific Ocean but rather, China is using its experience as a dictatorship to strengthen ties with other freedom hating countries. We can all pretend that values and culture don’t matter, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t. This Axis is one where the interest of each member is to stay in power, force its will on its people and enrich itself at the expense of its people. This is an Axis, not only of the unfree, but of those who need to eradicate freedom to “thrive”.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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New Alternatives for Regional Alliances & Global Effects?

New Alternatives for Regional Alliances & Global Effects?

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author. This article was first published the 14th of March, 2025 via The Angry Demagogue.

There is so much going on that it really is difficult to keep up. Israel is at the center of many of the regional developments, as would be expected. But it is not just Israel as Israel, but Israel as an ally of the United States that is interesting. The Syria problem we have written about and it is still not clear what the Trump administration’s policy is there as they look skeptically but hopefully at Al-Julani’s Syria. In our opinion that decision will be made for them, since the chances that Al-Julani has changed his stripes to a Western democrat is small and even if we are wrong there – the armed Jihadist groups that he needs to control seem more interested in ridding Syria of ‘heretics’ than stabilizing the country.

Lebanon has changed enough for the United States and Israel to take chances. While it is too bad that Israel did not do more in ridding the country of Hezbollah, the fact that Syria is no longer part of the Shiite crescent means that they are isolated and not able to get funding and arms from Iran with the same ease. What is important about the current Lebanese government is that Hezbollah is not a part of it. That does not leave them powerless, but it allows the government to act more independently. The Lebanese Shiites, under Hezbollah and the less but still militant Amal, will have to rethink their loyalty to these two organizations. At the least, it should move Amal away from their stronger partner.

Iran now has no land route to Hezbollah and will have a harder time arming the Houthis, too. But it is in Iraq that they are facing problems which could cause as much damage to their projection of power as did the loss of Syria. Due to US pressure, Iraq has stopped buying Iranian electricity although they can still buy gas. It seems that the US is giving Iraq some time to find alternatives to Iranian gas and the Iraqi government is moving away from Iran on other issues too and are trying to get rid of Iran’s Shiite militias.

But the most interesting thing to happen is Israel’s attempt to strengthen America’s relationship with Azerbaijan, a country that Israel is in close contact with regarding Iran. Israel has always been rumored to plan to use Azeri air force bases in a possible attack on Iran. The Azeri official responsible for regional development was in Israel last month and is trying to bridge differences between Israel and Turkey. The Azeri’s next stop after Israel was to Turkey. Steve Witkoff is reported to have stopped in Baku after his visit to Moscow.

An Azeri company has also bought rights to Israel’s Tamar gas field. Israel currently gets oil from Azerbaijan via a pipeline that goes through Turkey so the energy relationship is strong and longstanding between Israel and Azerbaijan. It seems that Turkey’s relationship with Azerbaijan is more important to them than their animosity towards Israel – probably because the Azeris and Armenians are enemies. It seems that sometimes not only friendships have to be ranked but enemies, too.

Trump’s game with Ukraine is not necessarily to my taste but it could be that there is something much bigger going on here and that is connecting Israel, Russia, Central Asia and Turkey to a grand alliance with the United States. I don’t think that Trump will succeed in pulling Russia away from Iran and China and that Erdogan’s Turkey will not give up their dream of destroying Israel. But what if the Iranian regime falls after a combination of harsh sanctions, economic collapse and Israeli military attacks? What if Iran is pulled away from the alliance leaving Russia with just China? What if a Russian base in Syria is dependent upon their moving away from China?

Last year the Axis held a near continuous land bridge from the Pacific to the Mediterranean. China was moving into Russia’s “sphere of influence” in the “Stans” of Central Asia with their economic bear hugs. This was something that the Biden administration ignored, but could be a bigger headache for Putin than a well armed but non-NATO Ukraine with American businessmen instead of soldiers as a tripwire.

Are we giving too much credit to Trump and his foreign policy team and to Israel’s influence in the expanded region that reaches beyond Syria? Is there more going on than we know or less?

On October 7 and the days that followed, the Biden Administration was sure that Israel was in such a panic that it would agree to anything, and they could force the Obama Middle East of a hegemonic Iran and a Palestinian state down Israel’s throats – and overthrow Netanyahu as an extra. None of those things happened.

Only a fool would predict what will be in a year, but what we have discussed above is one scenario no one would have considered even six months ago. The post WWII world looked nothing like the world of 1937, and the post WWIII world (the one we wrote about a year ago and may or may not have happened!) will look nothing like September 2023 – no matter how hard the UN yells and screams.

Could Israel and Azerbaijan be the keys to a realigned world?

It is against my nature to be optimistic, especially since Israel is still not done with Gaza, the hostages are not yet home and the internal politics are reaching levels that border on a soft coup.

However, while we don’t know where the aces are, we know that the Obama-Biden jokers are no longer in the deck.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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Cricket: Indian Premier League an Entertainment Juggernaut

Cricket: Indian Premier League an Entertainment Juggernaut

In the realm of cricket, where passion meets spectacle, one tournament stands out above all others: the Indian Premier League (IPL). Since its inception, the IPL has not just captured the imagination of cricket enthusiasts but has also redefined the landscape of the sport. With each passing year, its popularity has soared to new heights, transcending boundaries, and uniting fans in a celebration of cricket and entertainment.

The meteoric rise of the IPL is perhaps most evident in its television viewership, which has witnessed a remarkable surge year after year. In 2024, the tournament has reached

unprecedented heights, with the first 10 games alone commanding a staggering viewership of 350 million, as reported by the official broadcaster. This milestone underscores the IPL’s status as a global sporting phenomenon.

However, beyond the numbers also lies another pulsating heartbeat of the IPL: the electrifying atmosphere of its live in-person matches. Recently, I had the privilege of attending an IPL game, and what I witnessed was nothing short of extraordinary. The stadium pulsated with energy as fans from all walks of life converged to witness their cricketing heroes in action. From passionate chants to colorful banners, every corner of the stadium exuded a palpable sense of excitement and camaraderie.

What struck me the most was the inclusivity of the IPL experience. It wasn’t solely about cricket; it was a vibrant tapestry of emotions, where families, friends, and strangers united to bask in the excitement of the game. Whether it was the hawkers peddling team merchandise outside the stadium, the bustling metros filled with fervent fans, the thunderous applause following a boundary, or the collective breath held in anticipation before a wicket, each moment felt like a communal journey, transcending barriers of language, gender, and age.

At its core, the IPL represents more than just a cricket league; it embodies the spirit of modern India – a dynamic blend of tradition and innovation, of passion and entertainment. The league’s success can be attributed to its ability to constantly evolve and adapt to always entertain the audience. From introducing innovations like strategic time-outs and impact players, the IPL has consistently raised the bar for sports entertainment.

Moreover, the IPL’s impact extends beyond the boundaries of the cricket field. It has become a catalyst for economic growth, tourism, and fostering talent at the grassroots level. Through its various initiatives, the league has endeavored to promote inclusivity, diversity, and social responsibility, making a positive difference for many lives.

As the most-watched cricket league globally, the IPL continues to captivate hearts and minds, reaffirming its status as a cultural phenomenon. With each season, it pushes the boundaries of excellence, offering fans an unparalleled blend of athleticism, excitement, and entertainment. As I left the stadium that day, surrounded by the echoes of cheers and applause, I couldn’t help but marvel at the enduring legacy of the IPL is building – a testament to the power of sport to unite, inspire, and transcend.

Ibrahim Mirza also wrote: https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/icc-men-s-cricket-world-cup-2023-thoughts-predictions which can be read in Angry Meta Traders. For more go to our Sports and Cricket sections.

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An India-Israel Alliance: Prospects to Serve Global Freedom

An India-Israel Alliance: Prospects to Serve Global Freedom

Opinion: The following article is commentary and its views are solely those of the author.

We wrote a few weeks ago in response to Nassim Taleb’s claim that Israel was fragile due to its over-dependence on the United States, and we came to the conclusion that in general he was correct although not in every aspect Is Israel a Fragile Country?.

Also, we compared Israel’s fragility with that of other free or status-quo countries (as opposed to revolutionary countries like Russia, Iran and China) and thought that Israel was certainly not more fragile than other free countries in difficult neighborhoods.  We then gave a general outline of how the free-status-quo world might look should we actually see the end of America’s commitment to global freedom The Day After Pax Americana.  

I would like to examine in a more detailed way about Israel and India and how their potential relationship could be a model for this world. With the U.S reluctantly and belatedly responding to attacks from Iranian backed groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen and their stubborn resistance to attacking Iran itself each free or status-quo country needs to look into its own defense. The U.S also needs to see how it can help midwife these alliances so as to guarantee a free world after their voluntary end to the Pax Americana.

Israel will need  to expand its reach and move towards a more anti-fragile existence without damaging the all important U.S relationship. We can’t underestimate the importance of the U.S relationship to Israel and how important it is to maintain and even expand it – but as the U.S political landscape is changing and as the elite part of the younger generation is, for some reason, excusing violence against Jews in general and Israel in particular, Israel needs new strategic partners if it is to thrive and move at least part of the way towards anti-fragility.

Israel’s relationships with the Arab world, the Abraham Accords along with its older peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt are dependent upon dictators remaining in power. The most vocal and belligerent voice against Israel by a government in the (non-Iranian influenced) Arab comes from Jordan and the most vocal and belligerent non-governmental voice in the (non-Iranian influenced) Arab world probably comes from Egypt. These treaties are all important and they are based upon the self interest of the current rulers of the countries (which is a good thing), but no one can know how long they can last and how firm they really are.

Israel also has a strong and growing relationship with Greece and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean and have joint military exercises together. Their navies and air forces train together and even their ground forces have joint exercises but neither of those two countries have the economic, military or diplomatic heft that Israel needs.

If Israel is looking for a second strong ally but one that itself lives in a dangerous neighborhood then the place to turn to is India. With the largest population in the world, a democratic government and a growing economy, India is the ideal strategic ally for Israel. Both are countries that live in dangerous neighborhoods, are working democracies and have experience dealing with terrorism. India, under with the premiership of Narendra Modi already has a strong relationship with the Israeli military. Israel has sold more than $600 million worth of military equipment to India (second only to Russia) and the two militaries have cooperated on anti-terror policy. The Israeli navy also reportedly has close ties to the Indian navy including submarine exercises in the Indian Ocean. Israel already has nearly $5 billion in trade with India (import and export) and it is time for Israel to start purchasing basic military supplies from India. India has five domestic manufacturers of the standard 155 mm artillery shells and it has large small arms industry – this should be an alternative to total dependence on the U.S for this standard equipment.

There is now a consensus in the country that Israel needs to broaden its military manufacturing and acquisition and the best way to do this would be to expand its relations with India. In order for this to make sense the time has come for Israel to say a very big “thank you very much” to the United States for the $3.9 billion in military aide it gets annually and instead purchase directly from the U.S and other sources.   India could also help in building factories in Israel – which could even be operated by Indian nationals through Israel’s guest worker program.

The military cooperation should be expanded to the air-force as well as ground forces.  There ought to be joint officer training, just as there is now with the U.S and some European countries. There should be a process in place that will eventually lead to a freedom of the seas treaty in the waters between India and Israel’s Gulf of Eilat. This should include cooperation between naval, air and anti-missile forces. 

The foreign worker program should also be expanded. Israel is trying to free itself from dependence upon Palestinian labor – from both Gaza and the West Bank – and India and Israel have been talking about an expanded guest worker program. Currently there are Indian citizens working as aides to the elderly and disabled and that needs to be expanded to construction and agriculture. 

Israel is a small country with around 10 million people and due to its large birthrate and legal immigration there is a lack of new housing construction in the country. The guest worker program in place with countries like Philippines, Thailand, Sri Lanka and others allows workers to work for up to five years and earn much more than they can earn in their home countries. They are provided with the same health care as Israeli citizens (paid for by their employers) and are even given pension benefits which they take with them when they return to their home countries. Israel could probably host up to 100,000 Indian workers a year.  

Scientific and student cooperation should be increased. This will not only help both countries develop important technology in areas such as healthcare and biotech, but will help India and Israel retain some of the scientists that would otherwise emigrate to the U.S and U.K. The exchange programs at university science and technology departments could lead to the creation of world class companies in the respective fields. 

Finally, cooperation regarding the capital markets could help both countries develop world class markets. India has the potential to be a global financial center in the coming decades and Israel, while far from being a financial powerhouse could be a link to European markets and investors with the time zone 1-2 hours ahead and close connections with those markets. 

The United States will be Israel’s main ally for the next few decades but it will be healthy for both countries if Israel was able to share interests – political, diplomatic, cultural and military with another major country. While France was that country until 1967 no European power has the position or the disposition to ally with Israel. India is democratic and attained its independence at the same period Israel did and from the same (then) major colonial power.  Also, both countries have overcome their socialist beginnings to thrive on the global economic stage. 

Now is the time for Israel and India to take the next step on the road to a true alliance. If we have truly reached the end of the Pax Americana, then this can be an example to the rest of the free-Status-quo world on how to manage without the vast power that is the United States. If somehow America shows the will to continue to lead the free world an Israel-India alliance will only contribute to the freedom that a continued Pax Americana protects. It would be helpful in any future conflict in the Pacific and the alliance could expand to the Gulf countries, East Africa and maybe even Egypt. 

Economically and technologically the obvious expansion would be towards South Korea and Japan. Militarily, it could aide and potentially replace the U.S naval presence in the Persian Gulf and allow it to concentrate its forces more in the Pacific. We are not talking here of a relationship that will replace the U.S military tomorrow or even next year. 

This is a long term process and requires the governments, corporations and individuals in both countries to be aggressive in turning a relationship into an alliance.  And it will require the cooperation and encouragement of the United States which will have to agree to support this and similar alliances even if it does not agree with all the tactics used in a moment of crisis.     

It is time to start looking forward and to stop depending on the goodwill of the American people as America, too faces major fiscal, strategic and military challenges of its own. 

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Viewpoints for the 29th of Dec.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Viewpoints for the 29th of Dec.

10. Book: Cargill: Trading the World’s Grain by Wayne G. Broehl, Jr., a book that folks interested in physical commodities may find interesting.

9. Music: A Night in Tunisia played by Charlie Parker and Miles Davis on The Complete Savoy & Dial Master Takes.

8. NBA: Detroit Pistons have now lost 28 straight basketball games. Will the team get a participation trophy at the end of this season?

7. Post-Quantum: While ‘Artificial Intelligence’ grabs headlines, ‘post-quantum cryptography’ is a phrase and reality that corporations will need to learn increasingly.

6. Behavioral Sentiment: Risk appetite has remained firm during this holiday week, which may spark additional optimistic trading banter in January as trends are wagered upon.

5. U.S Treasuries: Yields have continued to move lower, and dovish outlooks regarding the U.S Federal Reserve inside many financial institutions may increase speculative zeal.

4. Gold: The precious metal remains near highs and the price of 2100.00 USD is hovering above, will this level start to be challenged and penetrated?

3. JPY and NZD: Both currencies remain bullish as they recover from long-term USD strength, this while mid-term price realms are being firmly challenged. Technical traders with long-term outlooks may want to start examining one year charts.

2. U.S Equities: S&P 500 on the cusp of record highs, the Nasdaq 100 is at apex values – while the Nasdaq Composite remains bullish, and the Dow Jones 30 continues to create new heights.

1. 2024: A prosperous and peaceful New Year is wished for all.

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Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

Shohei Gets Shown the Money: Dodgers sign Ohtani for 700M

Shohei Ohtani signed a contract yesterday with the Los Angeles Dodgers for 700 million USD over the next ten years. You probably know that already. Here’s the thing, the Dodgers are actually going to make much more money from Ohtani than he will make from them. There are always questions about a player’s health and ability to last the lenght of a long-term contract, but the reasons why this was a good deal for the Dodgers are strong.

Yes, Ohtani does have a track record of getting hurt once in a while. He will likely not be able to pitch during 2024 as his arm heals from a throwing injury from the recently played MLB season. Yet, he will hit, and he will likely do this at a significant level, which could help propel the Dodgers into playoff and championship contention. He is 29 years old and only turns 30 in July of 2024, which signals he has a handful of years ahead with a potential for excellent performances. While playing for the Los Angeles Angels since 2018, Shohei Ohtani has not been able to showcase his talents in the MLB playoffs. That will certainly change when playing for the Dodgers.

Let’s not forget Ohtani’s performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. He struck out Angel teammate, Mike Trout, to win the Championship for Japan in an absolutely electric moment in March while defeating team USA. Ohtani has and can produce big under the spotlight. He has consistently lived up to and exceeded expectations during his MLB career. It isn’t often players are compared to Babe Ruth in the same sentence, a comparison that was laughable when any name was mentioned with the famous Yankee (and Red Sox before), discussing Ohtani’s ability to pitch and hit puts him politely into the conversation. Ohtani will have to achieve World Series Championships however to solidify this juxtaposition.

The money being paid to Ohtani may seem obscene to we, the mere mortals of this world, but let’s take a look at some numbers. Let’s consider the additional advertising money the Dodgers will now make being able to market into Japan, and perhaps other nations that love baseball in Asia. Clearly there will be heaps of money made on selling jerseys, not only with Ohtani’s name spelled in English, but Japanese as well. Sponsorships, licenses and merchandising contract costs and values will jump through the roof for companies wanting to be affiliated with the Dodgers.

There is also the worth of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, which likely just added to their price tag if ‘suiters’ want to try and buy the club, which in the spring of 2023 had an estimated value of 4.8 billion USD. Having Ohtani in the midst of Los Angeles will make this number jump substantially. The Dodgers television and advertising rights are massive already, and can grow larger because of the money they will charge during the broadcasts for commercials. The Dodgers reportably have a 8.35 billion USD deal for their regional broadcast rights with Spectrum SportsNet LA – Time Warner Cable already.

Dentsu Inc., the advertising and public relations giant in Japan, signed a six year 275 million USD with Major League Baseball to sell the rights of MLB games into Japan starting in 2024. However, the Dodgers who are already followed in Japan will certainly add to their exposure among MLB baseball fans in the nation who will want to watch Ohtani play. Major League Baseball and Dentsu are probably thrilled that the Japanese star has signed with the Dodgers and the prospect of more international media attention.

Baseball fans that love the Dodgers and for those that hate them, there is also the knowledge that Ohtani has apparently agreed to defer a huge amount of his contract until year ten. This means the Dodgers will be left room via MLB’S Competitive Balance Tax to operate effectively and still have money to spend on other highly prized players. The Dodgers can go after Japanese pitching ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto with additional piles of cash, who will certainly listen now that Ohtani has joined Los Angeles.

Lastly in terms of numbers, the contract with Ohtani is staggering. Yet there are other contracts in sports that are eye opening. Jon Rahm, the golfer, apparently inked an individual deal with LIV Golf last week which will be worth around 500 million USD to play on the highly cash infused ‘Saudi’ tour instead of the PGA. There has certainly been inflation in the world, but the money being tossed around for ‘players’ is gigantic in the NFL, IPL – Indian Premier League Cricket, assorted football (soccer) leagues globally, Formula 1, NBA, LIV Golf, and MLB which make many contracts questionable. But again, Ohtani may prove to be quite a steal for the Dodgers regarding their ability to make money via this contract.

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Fed Caught Again in Reactive Stance waiting for ‘Good’ News

Fed Caught Again in Reactive Stance waiting for 'Good' News

Let’s recall that about two and a half years ago the U.S Federal Reserve was still calling inflation transitory and claiming that price pressures would subside quickly as the onslaught of coronavirus decreased. Nearly all financial institutions could see the Fed was merely being stubborn, and that is a polite way of putting it, instead of being realistic.

It would be nice to give the Fed the benefit of the doubt now, and say the Fed have better information and know how to quantify the outlook of the U.S economy in a more dynamic fashion. However, being skeptical of the U.S Federal Reserve and its ability to miss signs plainly in front of them is a full time job for many analysts and it pays well.

As said by many before, many members of the U.S Federal Reserve have the profound disadvantage of not having the experience of ‘skin in the game’. Many Fed officials have worked as paid bureaucrats their entire lives and have literally ‘studied’ their way to the top of the central banking world, without having firsthand knowledge regarding the daily chore of running businesses. Most Fed officials have no dirt under their fingernails.

The Fed is clamoring now to return the U.S inflation level to 2.0%, and there is a large amount of disagreement about how this number is interpreted via different economic gauges. The Federal Reserve has a poor track record as stated above for being able to know what is actually ahead. They have been very aggressive regarding raising interest rates the past year and a half, and now they are finding it difficult to say they are done. This tough talk could be an attempt by the Fed to create headwinds for those considering proclaiming the U.S central bank should become ‘dovish’ by speaking tough about potential pitfalls to come, this even though the Fed plainly missed dangerous road signs a few years ago which helped agitate the problems being dealt with at this moment.

What could go wrong you ask? A credit crunch for banks and consumers.

However, business people know all about potential crisis if they have enough experience. Paying employees wages, finding additional good employees, landing a space that charges a reasonable amount for rent, hoping taxes remain sane, and hoping your shop is not shoplifted into poverty are some obstacles business owners face nowadays in the U.S. The rising costs of wholesale prices has not completely disappeared, but things may be getting better via economic data. Maybe this will be proven wishful thinking, but outlook is important and should be considered.

The rising costs of doing business is then passed along to consumers. The Federal Reserve seemingly doesn’t understand that it has made it more expensive to accomplish positive business results for small owners of enterprise in the U.S, and the Fed seems to forget that over 44% of the American economy is powered by what can be called family owned companies. The Fed certainly doesn’t mention that it is hard enough for small U.S business to survive over the long haul, with a number of nearly 65% becoming failures after ten years statistically.

So while the Federal Reserve talks a great game about managing interest rates via their monetary policy and the Federal Funds Rate, they often forget about the problem small business owners face. Having said that, the higher interest rates the Fed has sparked because of its slow reaction to what they perceived as transitory inflation two years ago – is having a bad effect on bigger businesses too. This because big corporations no longer enjoy ‘free money’ from their banks. Money has become harder to attain.

Once again it has been proven that everyone looks like a genius when the U.S economy is sailing smoothly, but when obstacles develop and people have to quantify solutions to real problems, suddenly it is harder to produce profitable results. The U.S government has created massive deficits by using huge amounts of cash stimulus to protect economic growth in the U.S over the past five years. In fact because of the quantitative easing after the financial crisis of 2007, it can be argued the U.S has used stimulus for more than 15 years to make sure the U.S economy is ‘stable’. Politicians like to keep their jobs because there is little else they can do in the real world.

The Federal Reserve by increasing the Federal Funds Rate has made U.S Treasuries a feeding frenzy and yields have increased substantially. The higher rates of interest the U.S government will have to pay down the road on existing U.S Treasuries is not a small problem mathematically. However, for the time being the Federal Reserve and U.S government seem to be less concerned about what they are potentially putting on the shoulders of future generations of U.S citizens, and trying to keep the U.S population tranquil. Luckily for many American homeowners, U.S mortgages are still mostly being paid out via the lower interest rate amounts agreed upon a couple of years ago and beyond. New home sales and existing home sales are sputtering in the U.S, because many people do not want to pay the higher interest rates that now need to be signed upon for mortgages and paid.

What the U.S Federal Reserve needs to do is to state publicly that it is not going to raise interest rates over the mid-term, and that it is going to allow the free market to work itself out via enterprise with supply and demand ratios taking center stage and being allowed to work. And lastly, that if inflation conditions as expected continue to improve by decreasing, that the Federal Reserve will consider lowering interest rates in the first part of 2024.

However, the Federal Reserve is worried that if it does sound too positive, businesses will start to gamble on a better outlook and this will raise existing inflation which has been stubborn. But again, the Federal Reserve often doesn’t understand how smaller U.S businesses work. To get out of the current economic mess the U.S Federal Reserve needs to be pro-active and not reactive. Also, the ‘ruling’ U.S government has to cut back on stimulus programs with promises of a ‘free lunch’ for all and return to looking at numbers realistically. Fiscal responsibility is an idea that can actually be practiced.

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Business Success Techniques Used by the Amish Communities

Business Success Techniques Used by the Amish Communities

Book corner: Success Made Simple, An Inside Look at Why Amish Businesses Thrive, written by Erik Wesner

Success Made Simple

Can old stereotypes disappear? That’s the question one faces when reading Success Made Simple, An Inside Look at Why Amish Businesses Thrive, by Erik Wesner. Wesner, a sales and management professional who has done business with the Amish in several states, plus interviewed and studied them, changes our perspective of the Amish as he sets out to explain a staggering statistic: 95% of Amish businesses succeed as opposed to 34% for the remaining population.

A few words about the Amish. A U.S based Anabaptist Christian community with roots in Switzerland, the Amish are closely related to Mennonites and have traditionally believed in simple living, pacifism and non-violence, rural life, manual labor, Bible study, and the eschewing of modern technology. Easily recognized by their traditional clothing, they speak a form of Old German between themselves. They are literate (and speak English, which they learn at school) but their education stops at the eighth grade, where they begin working full-time. Perhaps the most well-known portrayal in the media is the 1985 crime drama Witness, starring Harrison Ford as a Philadelphia police detective seeking shelter with the Amish from corrupt rogues on his force. A major success, the movie cast into the public’s consciousness a rigid community of simple farmers and craftsmen who minimize all encounters with the outside world and look at the English – their word for all non-Amish – with extreme suspicion.

Erik Wesner’s book, written in 2010, presents a very different, or rather changed, group of people. Wesner interviewed fifty Amish small to medium business owners, some who he already knew personally. They were accommodating, friendly and content to discuss their success stories and business philosophy, although true to Amish form, they were modest in their achievements and strict about not coming across as showing off or bragging in any way.

Wesner explains that as the twentieth century drew to a close, the Amish realized that their high birthrate and limited remaining available farmland left farming as an increasingly unrealistic option for newer generations. They also realized that they can maintain their way of life and values while benefiting from the increasingly unavoidable interactions with the English, so they began turning to creating businesses that serve the outside world. As Wesner explains, what they lack in education – there is not a high school graduate or an MBA among those interviewed – they make up for with a hardcore work ethic instilled in them since birth. (Just a note – a few of the those interviewed have attended business lectures and seminars.)

Wesner divides his findings into eight chapters, with each chapter explaining a different business concept and containing personal stories as to how the Amish run their businesses and embody that concept. I was surprised to learn that although modern technology plays no part in their homes (for example, their home lighting and dairies are powered by gas), those who maintain offices, stores and workshops outside the community are completely well-equipped, with computers, internet, phones, etc.

The common sense wisdom espoused by the interviewees is powerful. The Amish wisely believe in staying with what they know and what they are good at, such as crafts, construction, restaurants, supermarkets, furniture, etc., and will not stray beyond the sphere of familiarity. Wesner credits this homey approach to producing a more quality product. This is just the beginning. The book describes their wise, old-school approach to, for example, customer service. They believe in honesty and integrity with their customers (their religious beliefs forbid them from any dishonest dealings anyway) and giving excellent service. They are always eager for constructive feedback from their customers, and strive for a good reputation and repeat business.

Additional subjects are hiring/firing (they tend to give lagging employees chances at success), nepotism (they believe in family businesses but are just as demanding with their families as they are with their other employees), job training (their lack of book education gives them a natural inclination and leg up in using “hands-on” approaches to training), leading from the front (Amish bosses will do the most menial tasks when needed), staff relations (they are quick to praise their employees), expense control (their frugal background gives them a natural advantage at controlling what goes in versus what goes out), and employee benefits (they have summer campouts, picnics and paid breakfasts for their teams).

 

So can old stereotypes disappear? With the Amish, they certainly can. An absorbing and interesting read.

If you want to read another Book Corner article, please visit this review by Evan Rothfeld: https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/ten-more-ok-now-twenty-finish-thirty-next-run-the-hill

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Profits: Business Ethics in an Age of Subjective Expediency

Profits: Business Ethics in an Age of Subjective Expediency

This article was originally written in the summer of 2006, Jeremy Blatch suggests current business governance remains shadowed by the same concerns.

Most of us in business today, be we entrepreneurs, professionals or key employees, recognize that our customers, clients and staff require us to act in their best interests and that our actions should reflect this.

A code of practice or some kind of ethical standard or guideline will be needed to ensure some degree of accountability and consistency. In this we encounter the first hurdle, as the degree to which corporate and governmental governance is superimposed by regulatory bodies on business, varies between industries, businesses, professional sectors and political divides.

The effectiveness to which this is policed in reality depends on the will of those in supervision, and the willingness of those in business to conform to requirements. Many areas are of course not covered by statutory regulation and getting on with the daily running of a business requires constant decisions which often involve a degree of ethical consideration. In reality any ethical stance is at best subjective and open to subversion and expediency in the quest for profitability, which after all is the main reason for being in business in the first place.

Service providers that fail to make a profit irrespective of the quality of service that they offer will inevitably cease to be able to provide that service. But at what cost do we surrender integrity for the expediency of justifying a decision on the grounds of corporate strategy or profitability. And at what point does adopting a rigid ethical stance become a statement of moral judgment? Moralizing about the world and the problems faced by modern society has never been wise. Morality is also a subjective term, often influenced by personal experience and strongly held beliefs, but not necessarily shared.

When some of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs met recently in Monaco at the invitation of the BBC World Service and the international accountants, Ernst Young, to debate how to ‘feed the starving and save the planet’, there was broad agreement that amongst most people there is a distrust of corporate motives and skepticism of Corporate Social Responsibility, currently a trendy buzz word amongst the business elite.

Is not the sole responsibility of companies to make money, but at what costs? Does it really matter how they make money, after all is a woman with a starving child going to refuse a plate of food because it has been purchased with money from the sale of narcotics? If we have a view against investing in armaments, are we prepared therefore to open our borders to anyone who wishes to attack us for any reason, or do we wish for a society in which the strongest take all and those with weapons will be strongest?

Someone receiving a pension has strong views on the tobacco or gambling or arms production or certain drugs, and whilst they are quite happy to receive the pension income and rejoice at the level of payment, are they also prepared to self-select how the investment is managed? Business is fraught with hypocrisy in this area.

Google have weakened their ethical case by caving in to the demands of China for expediency. Brands like Nike and Gap are having their reputations challenged by allegations of sweat shop labor despite spending millions on marketing a different image. Yet people still keep buying their trendy brands. Walmart the most successful US retailer attracts more shoppers than any other store despite allegations of a poor record of employee relations. Does anyone care? Shoppers go where they can find the best quality at the keenest price.

One can make a difference in society without trying to gain the ethical high ground or slipping into moral judgment by simply giving away something you don’t need, to those who most need it. We have witnessed this last week two instances of philanthropist ‘walking the walk’ not just ‘talking the talk’ with Warren Buffet, one of the most successful investors of this century, donating much of his personal wealth to the Bill and Melina Gates Family Foundation. This injection of cash now gives the Gates Foundation around USD 30 billion, more than three times the total amount of charitable donations in the U.K, putting them with Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and John D Rockefeller, as the hitherto best known philanthropists of modern times.

A few days after the very public announcement of Warren Buffet’s donation, a U.K hedge fund has emerged as one of the U.K’s most generous philanthropists with a donation of around GBP 50m to charity assisting children in poverty. The Investors Forum, registered in Gibraltar, was created to give a highly professional service to investors covering the wider investment process. It comprises of an association of firms and banks committed to acting professionally, whilst giving something back to those most in need.

A unique investment concept called the “Solidarity Fund” will hopefully be launched from Gibraltar, which will give both corporate and individual investors the opportunity to make money whilst directly helping those in need. In today’s business world making a profit is essential for survival, but how we make it and what we do with it will determine what sort of people we are, and ultimately what legacy we will leave behind.

Jeremy Blatch is the Founder and Consultant of Ein Harod Family Office. You can find more of his articles at www.ehh.gi