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EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

by with No Comment AMT MarketsFeatured HighlightsForex

EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 3rd of March 2025

The EUR/USD bounced slightly higher in early trading this morning, this after Friday’s burst lower when nervousness was ignited by the loud outcome (and lack of a resolution) via the Zelensky and Trump meeting. However, after achieving some buying impetus to start today, the EUR/USD is running into nervous headwinds as concerns remain evident.

This Thursday the ECB is expected to cut another 0.25 from its Main Refinancing Rate. The difference between borrowing rates from the ECB and Fed will be significant if the ECB does lower costs. E.U economic data warrants the dovish policy, while concerns about stubborn U.S inflation persists. And President Trump will have something to say about the Federal Reserve’s policy too. Trump wants the Fed to lower the Federal Funds Rate.

The U.S will issue its Non-Farm Employment Change numbers this Friday. And many Fed members will be speaking at various engagements this coming Thursday and Friday which is certain to get attention. Financial institutions will certainly be listening for clues regarding the potential of shifting viewpoints regarding the Fed’s current stance which is cautious from FOMC officials.

Which brings us back to the current value of the EUR/USD and behavioral sentiment which is being generated by a deep sea which is not clear. The EUR/USD into early last week was showing signs of bullishness, this as folks piled into the notion the currency pair was in oversold territory. The ability of the EUR/USD to remain above 1.04000 today should be watched. While there has been upside early this morning, European traders and full market action will begin to kick off in about one hour.

Day traders need to know the potential rate cut cut from the ECB this coming Thursday has been anticipated and factored into the EUR/USD already. Leaving the currency pair ready to be influenced by USD centric perspectives, and Ukraine concerns which are unresolved. The U.S equity indices should be watched too via their less than inspiring results the past week. While many financial institutions believe the EUR/USD should be valued higher, this may be based on instinctive bias instead of fundamental reasons.

Economists are great for insights, but it is skittish sentiment which is driving the markets. Volatility is likely and the price range of the EUR/USD could prove tactically challenging and wide. If cautious attitudes in financial institutions create calm, the EUR/USD could produce durable support levels, which could be used for upside wagers. Speculators will have opportunities in the currency pair this week, but risk management will be essential to protect against sudden gusts caused by swirling Trump rhetoric.

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AMT Warning: Many Brokers Do Not Care if you Lose your Money

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentFeatured HighlightsForex

AMT Warning: Many Brokers Do Not Care if you Lose your Money

Sounds like the title has been written wrong doesn’t it? Reads as if the editor clearly doesn’t understand the nature of the financial markets and how they work. Certainly anyone who offers their services to you would like to see you make money, or so you would like to think if you are an idealist who remains innocent and trusts all people.

Unfortunately, the title of this artcle which has lured you into reading this WARNING is not wrong. It has been written as cautionary advice for new and even experienced speculators. Many of the ‘financial’ websites and people you are considering to engage with via their day trading platforms and ‘expert’ systems are not worthy. Many do not care if you make money and some in fact are planning on ripping you off.

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Blackjack Betting and Sitting at the Table with Too Much Leverage

Volatility is in the eye of the beholder, brokers like when day traders without deep pockets use leverage, because they expect their ‘clients’ to get wiped out. Yes, brokers are not your friends in many cases, in fact they are rooting against you in the back rooms of their trading operations. Why? Because they are not actually putting your trade into the cash markets, they are allowing you to trade virtuallly. Think of it as entering a casino.

The casino wants you to bet outrageous sums of money, because they know statistically most gamblers will lose. Again, you have been warned. Your use of leverage is music to the ears of your broker, because they know the volatility of the market will knock you out of a trade if your margin trading is too high and the slightest of technical reversals will produce a losing position for you. Then they will ask you if you want to make another wager. You can continue to sit at the ‘blackjack’ table or walk away.

Learn To Trade Without Getting Ripped Off

The first thing you might want to ask and acknowledge when you begin to trade is how much money can be lost? The answer is all of your money. If the answer being given to you is that there is minimal risk and that you are guaranteed profits – immediately close the website you are looking at and find another. Guaranteed profits equates into assured losses for unsophisticated traders most of the time.

If you are speaking to someone on the phone and the person keeps asking you how much money you want to make, please hang up the phone and speak to someone else. Self proclaimed gurus should be shunned. As someone once said, people tend to use the word guru, because the word charlatan takes too long to spell.

Yes, even in the most reputable and best of companies who provide trading platforms, you are going to lose money sometimes. The art of speculating and successsful trading is a delicate balance between losing money and making money. It is probable if you are a new trader, that unfortunately you are going to lose money and you will become uncomfortable. Sure you could get lucky or be a prodigy who is supremely talented, but you should understand many folks lose money in the beginning. There is a learning curve for day traders and you need good teachers. You also need a calm emotional state of mind.

Finding a Pro to Trade for You

You might want to consider letting someone that you trust and who has a proven track record with verifiable clients you can authenticate to invest your money. However to have a pro trade for you, the amount of money as a minimum you will need for them to consider trading your cash is likely sizeable. It doesn’t seem like a fair question from a social perspective, but are you wealthy enough to allow someone to trade for you?

If you find a person that is reputable to trade for you, make sure they have explained their modus operandi and you agree with their outline. In other words have them discuss their plan of attack and how they perceive complexities within the markets. What sectors do they invest in, what is the break down via percentages regarding the amounts of money they put into various financial assets? Asking questions may seem a bit impolite, but reputable fund managers and family offices should not get flustered by your questions, and they should have answers that are easy to understand. Do not let them talk over your head with fancy words and equations. Clear and concise language is necessary.

You shoud ask how often they rebalance their portfolios and if they issue a quartertly report. Importantly, ask for an example of transparent accounting which shows transaction fees that will be charged in full, including services they are charged by other financial providers within your account. Commission and banking fees can add up quickly. And then ask the magic question regarding drawdowns, and what are the allowable losses in a trade and in an account that can happen before they have to stop trading. You should get clear explanations regarding all of your inquiries.

But You Likely Still Want to Trade for Yourself

If your emotions do not let you take into consideration that there are going to be negative days, perhaps declines for weeks and bad months – simply put, trading isn’t for you. Learning to handle your money and investing should not be a speculative adventure, this is not about having fun. Oh you will certainly experience thrills, but you should try your best to limit crises. Risk management is a way to curb the elements of gambling which every day trader is undertaking.

Will you become a professional investor? What is a professional investor? Nothing like semantics and flattery to get the juices of a prospective investor going. Do not be fooled by flattery. Do not be fooled by the fact that you have a degree. There are folks who do not have high school graduation certificates looking to take advantage of you, some of them are great traders and will eat you alive. Education at the best of colleges or universities is no guarantee you will become a good trader. There is a difference between paper trading and having skin in the game.

The marketplace is waiting for you to enter and anticipates taking your money. Brokers are trying to get you to come to their trading platforms because they want to make money from your transactions and wagers if they are not reputable. These brokers actually do not believe you will make money. Until you prove you know what you are doing you will be treated like a ‘mark’. When you do prove you know what you are doing you will be treated differently in more ways than one, and it might prove difficult to withdraw your winnings.

Trust is Important, but Facts and Regulations Help

You must deal with people and companies you trust. Make sure to do a deep examination of the folks you are about to forge a trading association. Trading virtually via digitalized CFD and Forex houses that are not regulated can lead to financial disaster. And ask where your broker is regulated, and then check on the mandates of the entity and government which has written the rules for brokers – are they legitimate supervisors and who do the regulations favor? There is a lot of work involved before you trade, you must practice due diligence.

AngryMetaTraders wants you to understand the game of trading. We talk about sports often because the world of trading can be closely compared. If you are good and lucky, perhaps the world of investing awaits your success. If you suffer a learning curve like many, you can compare yourself to an athlete that must train to beat the best. You will need patience and dedication. Surround yourself with reputable firms and people to asssociate your speculative endeavors with in order to get solid results long-term.

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USDINR: 83/$ & Above is a Possibility

by with No Comment DataForexWorld

USDINR: 83/$ & Above is a Possibility

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The Indian Rupee continues to remain under pressure as volatility in the global market triggers capital outflows amid investors concerns over the stress levels in banks worldwide especially in the U.S and in Europe.

RBI Governor Das yesterday, said in a conference that India today has a well regulated and well supervised banking sector.

Not to forget, India has past issues with some private banks that have been lending to corporations that defaulted on their debt . Yes Bank and Lakshmi Villas Bank are some of these examples, and today these banks are well capitalized and their loan books are diversified as the RBI has tightened its grip on regulatory frameworks.

Also, the loan books of Indian banks are being more diversified, and Government Bonds portfolios are comprising only 18-22% of the total assets, meaning banks are not at greater risk than their western counterparts.

The central bank of India holds Forex reserves of over $560 billion USD and has been actively intervening in the Spot & Forward markets since 2022 as the U.S Federal Reserve started to raise rates to tackle higher inflation. Governor Das also cautioned, ”the worst of inflation is behind us,” but pointed out that with the Russia – Ukrainian war, along with monetary tightening by major central banks, that there is still stress for nations that have high external debt and more capital outflows, which can put pressure on their currencies and trigger imported inflation.

India also has sticker inflation of around 6.4% down from 6.52% in January, this while the RBI is expected to raise rates by 25 bps in the April monetary policy meeting . The Indian Rupee was among the worst-performing currencies among emerging Asian peers last year, counter weighed by a stronger dollar and outflows from local assets. 

As a net importer of oil from Russia which grew 4 times in 2022, and less exposure to external debt means headwinds from shocks will be minimal which will help the Indian Rupee. However, as growth slows down in the West, this means more capital outflows and a flight to safer assets possibly taking place.

The RBI stance is very different than a month ago, where it didn’t allow markets to take the Indian Rupee above 83/$, but now it’s significant that the central bank could let to the USD/INR depreciate above 83 to save foreign exchange reserves.

The RBI’s equation is very simple as the Federal Reserve reduced its rates to zero back in 2020 because of Covid19, more money chased speculative assets especially in the emerging markets. And the RBI accumulated a lot of Forex reserves. Now the tables have changed. In addition to this, India also is not keen to add its bonds to global indexes due to concerns over potential ensuing market volatility not supporting capital inflows, and thus perhaps damaging the Rupee.

With current account deficits widening to 4.4% of India GDP in Q2, this means India needs to work hard to achieve better capital flows, particularly as tensions on some important global banks continue to be demonstrated.

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Angry Voters and the Federal Reserve

by with No Comment Federal Reserve, Interest RatesForexRisk Analysis

Angry Voters and the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before the U.S Senate tomorrow. Certainly we are going to hear the words inflation and growth mentioned, this as the Fed Chairman speaks about monetary policy and the trajectory for the U.S central bank to continue raising interest rates over the mid-term.

Via prices in the Forex market since the start of February, financial houses have likely priced in two additional interest rate hikes from the U.S central bank into the USD, one of them being a quarter of a point increase coming on the 22nd of March. The USD has been mostly stronger across the board the past four weeks. This week’s coming Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings data results should be monitored on Friday.

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USD Index One Month Chart

While financial houses may have accepted the interest rates to come, this doesn’t change the rather complex economic data in the U.S which is demonstrating rather stubborn inflation, while also showing growth is not slowing down as much as has been anticipated. GDP numbers reported recently from the States showed only a slight decrease.

  • How much more can the U.S Federal Reserve increase interest rates over the next six months without making the USD too strong?

  • At what point will the Fed become less aggressive?

  • While an additional .50% has been ‘accepted’ by financial institutions, will the Fed bring the lending rate to 5.50%?

  • High inflation and limited growth could result in political quicksand for many elected officials.

The U.S Federal Reserve is going to get pressure from both sides of the aisle in Washington D.C.. Traders should not discount their perceptions that elected officials are starting to consider the ramifications of the coming elections in a year and half, because this will affect behavioral sentiment in the markets. Neither Democrats or Republicans will be happy if inflation remains a problem going into the vote. Rising costs equal less money in the bank accounts of American voters.

The U.S public has a history of voting via sentiment generated from their wallets and the power to consume. Prices that feel like they are out of control will win no friends. While energy prices seem to have calmed down in the headlines, energy costs remain a risk and concern for manufacturers worldwide. The inability to save money for individuals, and lack of profits for corporations makes for potentially angry voting results.

There is an additional problem lurking. The strong USD driven by the Federal Reserve’s increased borrowing costs, the Federal Funds Rate, has weakened currencies across the world. Vulnerable currencies have spurred inflation in many nations which are producers of goods that global consumers buy, these rising prices are being imported into the U.S economy.

As much as international economic integration helps the world, the rise of coronavirus and its knock-on affects via costs were not anticipated enough, causing weaknesses to be exposed. The U.S attempted to save its skin economically by creating a massive amount of stimulus, which certainly fueled domestic inflation. The U.S might have saved the American public in the short-term, but the government faces a long climb upwards to fix the problems overspending has caused.

The rising costs of logistics and the spotty supply of commodities internationally generated higher prices in the aftermath of coronavirus. Commodity prices have become more tranquil, but the costs of production has not eased because weaker currencies globally are hurting producers who need to use the USD to purchase resources. The U.S Federal Reserve’s attempt to tackle inflation with higher interest rates, has fueled ‘import’ inflation. This is not an easy problem to solve.

The Fed will not say in public they want the U.S economy to slow down, this acknowledgement would costs jobs which rely on political backing. The White House certainly doesn’t want the economy to suffer as it prepares for an election within a year and a half, but quietly officials likely accept slower growth and perhaps recession may become inevitable. Both the Fed and elected officials are performing a delicate dance that may be interrupted any moment.

The Fed doesn’t want us to remember they said inflation would prove transitory almost two years ago. The Fed needs to fight rising costs certainly, but very carefully. The desire to weaken inflation is correct but a dangerous balancing act, because the USD remains the global reserve currency.