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FX Trends: Brutal Months for Day Traders and Happy Brokers

FX Trends: Brutal Months for Day Traders and Happy Brokers

The past few months for day traders have likely not been pleasant experiences for many. Forex, equity indices and other assets have experienced plenty of volatility and finding a trend has not been easy. While speculators who are wagering on the ups and downs in the marketplace have been getting crushed, their brokers likely have not been getting hurt.

USD Cash Index Six Month Chart as of 7th of March 2025

Day traders need to understand that CFDs are virtual. Your broker is merely placing a wager for you on chosen direction, in most cases they are acting as ‘the house’ and know the volatility is going to knock you out of your trade. They pocket your losses as their winnings in many cases. The brokers are not only making money from the differentials from the bids and asks (the spread), they might also be charging you a transaction fee.

If a broker feels less confident about their ability to make a profit off your poor results (I am not kidding about this), then they sometimes insure your wager via a liquidity provider who in many cases is literally betting against your broker, because the liquidity providers believe your broker is likely being overly cautious. (A vicious circle). In other words brokers allow your trades to work virtually (not in the real marketplace) on something many risk management rooms in Forex call the B Book. If the broker is not certain if you will lose money, they put your trades into something called an A Book. And, yes, many liquidity providers (the A Book providers) are betting against their clients (who are brokers seeking to mitigate their risks).

Again, the brokers and the liquidity providers do not believe you will make money most of the time. They are allowing you to bet and they are happy to take your wager, because historical evidence shows retail bettors in Forex tend to lose money via their trading accounts at least 85% over long durations. Depending on what source you look at regarding CFD statistics, speculators tend to do a little better against their brokers but still lose money more than 50% of the time. Some statistics claim up to 75% of the CFD outcomes via trading accounts equate into losses for speculators.

And if all of this sounds like sour grapes, it is not, it is a warning to you the bettor. Brokers in many cases are glorified casinos that provide you an opportunity to wager. You need to acknowledge the above before your start trading. Speculating on Forex and CFDs ( via equities, indices and commodities) is like betting on a horse. The racetrack doesn’t lose money, they know most bettors simply enjoy the thrill of gambling and don’t mind losing. Racetracks are happy to pay the occasional winner. If you choose to wager on Forex and CFDs you need to practice risk management.

You probably didn’t come here to be reminded about risk management, you have heard it before – conservative leverage, price targets, timeframe parameters, entry – stop loss – take profit orders are standard warnings. You want to read about trends, you want to know which direction you should take, yet there are no guarantees and that is why speculating is gambling. You are wagering.

If you intend on improving your odds, by following solid risk taking tactics – including trying to understand behavioral sentiment via the financial institutions you are trying to emulate, you might find better results. And still, speculating will be tough.

The U.S will release Non-Farm Employment Change numbers today, but traders should pay attention to the Average Hourly Earnings report which will give insights about inflation too. However, the jobs numbers may prove to be a false narrative, because more importantly, whether you like him or not, there is the Trump Effect to ponder.

Tariff mantras and fears, negotiations regarding the fate of Ukraine, and a myriad of other concerns have financial institutions anxious as they try to seek clarity. Equity indices have been a mess. Yet, the USD Cash Index has given back a lot of its gains since February the 4th – this after the Forex bloodshed caused by nervous reactions to fear of tariffs being implemented. And now, not so coincidently the USD Cash Index is traversing values it saw on the 5th of November 2024, yes, U.S Election Day. Speculators and financial institutions have returned full circle to big unknowns.

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Reactions and Risks as Trading Clarity Remains Hard to Grasp

Reactions and Risks as Trading Clarity Remains Hard to Grasp

While many U.S government officials try to shrug off the downgrade of U.S Treasuries by Fitch Ratings last week, a warning shot has been fired regarding U.S spending and the nation’s growing deficit. Janet Yellen and others may believe the downgrade should not have happened, but the prospect that the U.S golden goose is going to stop eventually producing enough eggs is a realistic viewpoint from Fitch. Risk adverse trading on the news was seemingly sparked from the U.S Treasuries downgrade, while many prominent figures including Warren Buffet have claimed they are not worried. However, one thing that the downgrade did was certainly create more clouds for financial institutions which have already been suffering from a lack of clarity the past three weeks.

U.S economic policy remains troubling regarding its spending, and while the government believes its bonds will remain the best in the world for the foreseeable future, it would certainly help matters if responsible ‘adults’ would be allowed a voice regarding stimulus, expenditures and debt ceiling concerns. The U.S has been warned, but with a major presidential campaign approaching on the horizon, more promises to the U.S public will likely carry greater long-term costs.

Gold One Week Chart as of 8th August 2023

While the USD did get stronger across Forex and gold finished last week near lows, some major currencies finished Friday with slight reversals higher against the USD before going into the weekend, based on the weaker than anticipated Non-Farm Employment Change outcome. However, Average Hourly Earnings came in slightly higher. The rise in wages for employees wasn’t expected, but the gains via the inflation number may not have been considered significant enough to cause a panic.

Day traders trying to navigate through the news of the ratings downgrade and the mixed jobs numbers from the U.S may have gotten ripped apart from the volatility late last week. Forex brokers likely had a good week if the majority of their speculators were ‘B’ book – virtual – traders. Survivors of last week’s dynamic price action should be aware that financial institutions do not have the best of outlooks for global central banks. This week’s coming data may help a bit, but trading could also remain rather dangerous and churn volatility.

Global Outside Influence to Give Attention:

Although Niger may seem like a world far away for most day traders, they should keep an eye on the developments of the African nation. A military coup has gotten the attention of global powers and there are threats of military intervention rattling. France, the U.S and Nigeria and other ‘Western’ leaning nations have a stake in the Niger drama, on the other side is Russia and its Wagner affiliated mercenaries. The potential for a war to to start in this landlocked northern African nation appears to be growing. A conflict in Niger could include a wide range of competing sides and create loud rhetoric and hyperbole. It could also cause uncomfortable feelings at the BRICS summit scheduled to begin on the 22nd of August in Johannesburg, South Africa.

GBP/USD One Month Chart as of 8th August 2023

Monday, 7th of July, U.K Halifax Home Price Index – this data is expected to remain rather stable, but the past three results have been negative. Mortgages are getting expensive in the U.K and the pressure added from higher interest rates is not helping. The GBP/USD could react briefly to this outcome.

Monday, 7th of July, E.U Sentix Investor Confidence – the reading is anticipated to be worse than last month’s outcome regarding investor outlook. The past three months have been negative. The E.U is certainly facing recessionary pressure. Oddly enough, a poor outcome could spur on the belief the ECB may have to become less aggressive regarding their higher interest rates. The EUR/USD may see a flurry of reactions from this report.

Tuesday, 8th of July, China Trade Balance – the results will get plenty of attention because recent economic data from the nation has been troubling. Export demand is important for China’s economy.

Tuesday, 8th of July, Germany Final Consumer Price Index – the result is expected to match the forecast of a 0.3% gain. This inflation report will be watched by EUR/USD, but if expectations are met this could create rather consolidated trading until Thursday for the currency pair.

Wednesday, 9th of July, China CPI – the inflation data from the nation will be watched by global investors. Recent statistics from China have signaled concerns about ‘deflation’. An outcome of minus -0.5% is expected. Economic issues are shadowing China, this as it remains active in global affairs.

Last week Argentina announced China helped facilitate a ‘bridge loan’ for the South American nation so it could make a repayment to the IMF. Rising economic concerns in China could start to squeeze its ‘cash power’ as it tries to gain influence globally by pumping Yuan (CNY) into international finance. China has certainly been bold and is playing a ‘long game’, because its choice of Argentina as a nation to help can certainly not expect to produce short-term financial gains.

Thursday, 10th of July, U.S CPI – Consumer Price Index results from the States will cause potentially dynamic broad market movement. Inflation is expected to match last month’s rise of 0.2% via the broad and core numbers. However, traders should note that some analysts have voiced concerns rising energy prices the past month will hit the inflation numbers, if this occurs it could spark a volatile USD. Higher Crude Oil prices combined with a streak of U.S hot weather may create an intriguing outcome. Risk management should be used by day traders who are wagering in the markets as the CPI readings are released.

Friday, 11th of July, U.K GDP – the Gross Domestic Product numbers will be important immediately for the GBP/USD. Although last month’s outcome was slightly stronger than anticipated it was still negative with a minus -0.1% reading. The growth number this time around is expected to gain 0.2% per the monthly report.

Friday, 11th of July, U.S Producer Price Index – economic numbers from the States have been mixed recently. These inflation numbers are expected to show a slight rise, if the outcome meets expectations – the broad markets may remain calm. However, if inflation is stronger than expected, the result could set off fireworks if the outcome sets off fears about the U.S Fed maintaining it hawkish rhetoric.

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Trading Tips: Perspectives and Gaining Behavioral Sentiment

Trading Tips: Perspectives and Gaining Behavioral Sentiment

Data is everywhere. AI has helped increase the level of information accessible to day traders. However, the quality of the information and its insights remains questionable – suspect. Systems relying on technical, fundamentals, algos, and the magic word ‘quants’ are tools which can help a person make their decisions. Unfortunately they do not guarantee you are going to make money.

Profitable results in trading remain difficult to attain. Day traders – speculators – continue to look for a golden goose. Something or someone who can deliver profits on a steady basis remains hard to find. This article is to help you gain perspective, it is a trading tip. There are no secrets of the temple coming, but it may be time you stop looking for secrets which do not exist.

Nasdaq Composite Six Months Chart as of 12th August 2023

Trying to look forward and gaining genuine insights remains tough. Technical charts, fundamentals, opinions from experts all remain problematic to actually use in real time. The markets in a sense are alive, the environment is constantly changing. The moment information is shared it becomes old. Time and price action move fast. You can slow down the ‘game of trading’ by using different perspectives and practicing new ways to consider the dynamic values that are in flux that you are witnessing.

Behavioral sentiment – insights – regarding what the largest traders are going to do in the short, mid and long-term would be relevant. Understanding the asset you want to trade is important, understanding the inclination of the marketplace, price action – velocity – and timeframes of potential volatility is crucial. A key component would be to find a way to time a trade knowing what direction an asset is going to move.

This remains elusive for nearly all traders.

Again, this particular article is not going to solve this problem for you. It is to acknowledge the problem exists. We can have all the data in the world, past performances statistics, know what the markets are predicted to do, but the ‘game’ still needs to be played. Over 90% of day traders loss their money and eventually give up. Traders wagering on the markets need a way to put the odds of success in their favor. Folks may wonder why angrymetatraders.com writes about fantasy sports within its culture/ sports topics, it is because there is a correlation to sports and financial markets for speculators.

Day traders in many ways are not really participating in the marketplace, they are betting on the outcome of the results. The tiny trades of the majority of retail speculators are not affecting price action, sometimes the trades aren’t even being put into the real market – they are being traded virtually. Read about the topic B book trading within our articles if you have time.

Like sports gamblers who are not playing in the game, speculators are using their perceived knowledge of financial assets and past results to bet on future outcomes. A key ingredient to having successful trades that work in the financial markets is to have solid knowledge and a sense of what can develop as assets trade on a particular day. There are complexities within each sector, like every game being played in a variety of sports.

Gamblers not only bet on the outcome of the game, they also bet on the outcome of different components within the ‘contest’ – player stats, halftime scores, turnovers. Traders can do the same thing by speculating on an asset over different timeframes, and they can sometimes trade what are known as ‘options’ too, this to hedge on their positions or sometimes simply wager on their belief that a Forex pair or a share (stock) price is going to move in different ways during a certain period of time.

Understanding behavioral sentiment is important. The meshing of technical interpretation with fundamental data, and the way it affects perception and the tendencies of potential decisions to be made regarding outcomes is not easy. However, grasping the outlook of other financial market participants can improve a day traders results, if they put effort into perspectives and apply this to their risk taking tactics.