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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Ruminations for the 31st of May

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Western Cape, South Africa

10. Absence: Apologies for the truancy of AMT’s Top 10 the past handful of months. The staff has offered a myriad of poor excuses, but it accepts responsibility and has promised to try and meet the standards of our readers with timely publication once more. More coffee has been promised to the staff as a negotiation tactic by management, even though the price of the beverage is obscene.

9. Dim the Lights: President Cyril Ramaphosa, his staff and well known South African golfers attended a highly publicized meeting in the White House with President Trump. After surprisingly dimming the lights, a video mainly consisting of EFF radical Julius Malema’s threatening escapades was shown while Trump voiced concern about attacks on farmers. Not a lot is known about the outcome of talks which went on behind closed doors afterwards, but speculation abounds. The USD/ZAR is near 17.97000.

8. Anduril Industries: An aviation company, cofounded by Palmer Luckey who at a young age created Oculus VR, is receiving important attention. Anduril is a privately held company intent on building pilotless jet fighters, among other innovative technologies. Palmer Luckey is now 32 years old and appears ready to become a transformative tech entrepreneur perhaps in the vein of Elon Musk.

7. Bitcoin: Value of BTC/USD is near $103,600.00 at this moment. GameStop has announced it has purchased Bitcoin as a form of corporate treasury, apparently following the path of MicroStrategy’s foray as a Bitcoin proxy to the dismay of some and delight of others. The price of the world’s biggest digital asset was nearly $75,000 on the 7th of April 2025.

6. TACO: An acronym meaning ‘Trump always chickens out’, created by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times, has caught the attention of many, including President Trump. While an amusing and pointed term, the context should be considered as a way to monitor the thinking of behavioral sentiment of anxious investors. Trump’s tough rhetoric and tendency to then issue a softer toned stance has been noted before by his backers as well as critics. As a means of accumulation while seeking value in assets perceived to be oversold, TACO may be a useful tool for those who agree with Armstrong’s thinking.

5. Values: Gold went into this weekend near $3,288.00. After achieving an apex around the vicinity of $3,500.00 on the 22nd of April, speculative fever has subsided a bit, but the commodity remains stubbornly in demand. Inflation in the U.S appears to be under control. Yesterday’s Core PCE Price Index met expectations with a monthly outcome of 0.1%. WTI Crude Oil’s spot price finished near $61.05 on Friday showing large traders remain convinced supply is strong.

4. Paralysis: The Fed remains steadfast and scared. While using the word ‘uncertainty’ repetitively – as if part of a rave song, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell must contend with official U.S inflation data which is starkly lower and a discontent Donald Trump, this while trying to explain the comatose behavior of the U.S central bank. The Fed should cut the Federal Funds Rate asap. And a 50 basis point cut by the end of this summer should be the discussed target.

3. Leviathan: The White House’s goal of reducing the deficit is running into tough political realities as budget cutting hopes clash with entrenched bureaucracy that swallows money like a hungry sea monster. U.S Treasuries yields remain elevated. The U.S has been cautioned again via rating services – highlighted by Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S bonds. To the chagrin of many fiscal conservatives, U.S government spending remains problematic.

2. Intimidation: Apocalyptic economic headlines attract viewers. Proclaiming global catastrophe creates attention and reactions in global financial markets. However, after the fierce selling seen in equities over the past few months, there has also been plenty of resilience and indices are now showing signs of coalescing as outlooks improve. Value and yields remain a prime motivator for experienced investors.

1. Pundits: Day traders have been battling volatile market storms since the election of Donald Trump, this as financial institutions have shown a tendency to shift outlooks as they react to pandemonium and cause whipsaw price action. Many speculators have experienced costly losses. Listening to self-anointed experts has not helped. Be wary of anyone who claims to be a market guru, and remember some call themselves gurus simply because spelling charlatan takes too long.

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Cocoa Surges Past 11,500 per Ton, Coffee Flying High Too

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

Cocoa Surges Past 11,500 per Ton, Coffee Flying High Too

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Cocoa above 11,500 per ton as of 10th December 2024

Holiday chocolate about to get more expensive? Cocoa and Coffee futures are hitting highs again. Someone, somewhere is making a lot of money off of the surges.

If you are a day trader trying to pursue these commodities you need deep pockets and conservative leverage (if at all). The reversals higher in Cocoa and Coffee futures since November have been fast and dangerous, even for the large players. The notion the market is overbought is logical, but it has also been fatal for short sellers.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Politicos for the 7th of June 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Politicos for the 7th of June 2024

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10. Three P’s: Pragmatic and populist politicians are clashing in a world that seeks to try and sell utopian visions from all sides, instead of admitting realities that should be understood and defined, thus creating a more dangerous world. It would be funny if it weren’t so serious.

9. Investment: Pasqal, a quantum tech company located in France founded in 2019, and IBM have announced a collaboration to integrate efforts on creating quantum centric supercomputing architecture. The quest for fully functioning applications appears to be years away as theories such as neutral atoms are studied and applied, and cooling systems are pressed to their limits. However, a transition into working research continues to build momentum. Accelerated investment paths for those seeking the quantum golden goose are flourishing.

8. Three C’s: Cocoa, Coffee and Copper are creating speculative storms for traders as volatility has seen apex values, then dramatic drops, followed by violent reversals higher in the commodities. Cocoa is back above 10,100 USD per metric ton as of this writing, and Coffee Arabica and Copper have been delivering huge profits and staggering losses for large players and day traders who continue to wager.

7. India: Narendra Modi has retained power after a hard fought voting outcome has diminished some of his power. However, fears that turned the Nifty 50 index sharply lower earlier this week, also created a market discount for long-term investors. Foreign investors continue to have a positive economic outlook for the nation. It will not be a surprise to see the Nifty 50 back to pre-election levels and challenging record highs soon, yet again delivering a lesson for day traders who are speculating on the short-term instead of being patient.

6. South Africa: Coalition government discussions are ongoing and will grow in noise in the coming days as a deadline to conclude an agreement approaches. The ANC is said to be talking seriously with the Democratic Alliance, but the Congress of South African Trade Unions which is strongly aligned with the ANC is against the move. It has recently been reported that South Africa’s ports are among the least dependable in the world by the Container Port Performance Index. Poor infrastructure, corruption and a lack of transparency are hurting South Africa. The ANC decision in the coming week regarding a coalition is vitally important. Either it will decide to make concessions and bring the DA in as a working government partner and hopefully build a bridge towards a better South Africa, or the ANC will decide on a hard-left coalition which could potentially bring it to a Venezuela or Zimbabwe type of outcome. The USD/ZAR will react.

5. Conservatives: The U.K election is less than one month a way, and Labour appears set to take power and control Parliament with a large majority. The failure of the Tories to create the perception of successful economic, foreign, and social polices that resonated with the public, appears to be easing the way for a ruling Labour government which has not been seen since since 2010.

4. Carry Trade: The EUR/USD will become an interesting test ground for carry trade fundamentals in the coming weeks and months. The ECB cut its Main Refinancing Rate as anticipated yesterday by 0.25%, but said it is neutral about more cuts. The ECB explained it was able to cut interest rates yesterday, because current inflation levels have dropped enough that a modification of interest rates was needed, but that it remains cautious about inflation in the future. This statement and policy could potentially allow for the Federal Reserve to become the more dovish central bank over the mid-term and lead to a stronger EUR/USD. How much will financial institutions wager on this notion in the near-term?

3. USD/JPY: Serenity now should be the new mantra for the BoJ. The Bank of Japan seems to be waiting on the Fed to sound more dovish, which could stop the need for the BoJ to intervene again. The USD/JPY remains high and is currently testing the 155.000 to 156.000 range in a fairly steady manner. The Bank of Japan will release its Monetary Policy Statement on the 14th of June. While Forex tranquility has been demonstrated the past couple of days, conditions may change rapidly later today and day traders should brace for price velocity.

2. U.S Indices: Equity values have recovered in the Nasdaq and S&P indices, and while the Dow 30 is below apex highs it is still within sight of the 40,000 level touched on the 20th of May. Treasury yields have traded slightly lower this week which has ignited risk appetite again. Gold is trading below the 2,400.00 USD ratio, but still comfortably above 2,300.00 for the moment. If Treasury yields continue to experience a downturn, institutional investors are likely to funnel cash into the stock market.

1. Data: U.S jobs numbers via the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings figures will be published today. The result will certainly set the path for the Federal Reserve’s June 12th FOMC meeting. Yesterday’s weekly Unemployment Claims came in weaker (more claims filed) than expected and other jobs data was weaker the past few days via JOLTS and the ADP statistics. All financial assets will react to the U.S data today. Weaker jobs numbers would create more confidence among institutional investors that the Fed will have to sound dovish rhetoric regarding potential cuts to the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months. Fast trading conditions are coming today.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Intrigues for the 17th of May 2024

by with No Comment CommoditiesDataFinancial Institutions

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Intrigues for the 17th of May 2024

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10. Georgia and Slovakia: It would we wise to pay attention to Tbilisi demonstrations, and also cast an eye on Bratislava after the assassination attempt of Prime Minister Fico. Russia is certainly paying attention.

9. Superconductivity: Origin Quantum Computing Technology of China is making solid advancements and has announced they are ready to domestically produce a 72 qubit capable microwave module known as ‘Origin Wukong’. The battle to create efficient quantum components and operating systems between China, the U.S and others is real.

8. Secretary of Music: Anthony Blinken’s naive decision to play guitar in a Kiev nightclub this week is comparable to Nero playing music while Rome burned. U.S foreign policy continues to raise concerned eyebrows from friends and foes alike.

7. South African Election: The coming vote on the 29th of May is less than two weeks away. USD/ZAR as of this writing is near 18.22000, where will it be on the 30th of May?

6. Biden and Trump: The potential for debates between the two presidential candidates is growing. One question observers may be wondering is if there is adequate supply of caffeine to keep Joe energetic and ample enough hairspray for Donald to look under control?

5. GameStop: Yet another market manipulation of GME is causing massive losses for day traders. The price for the stock finished near $27.67 yesterday, this after touching a high above $56.00 on the 14th of May. GME was close to $10.00 on the 15th of April. Buyers that get in too late to these betting schemes created by frenzied crowds tend to go bust as the early manipulators cash out their profits.

4. Commodities: Cocoa is near 7560.0 USD per metric ton, and Coffee Arabica is traversing slightly below 200.00 USD. Speculative forces remain powerful in both and while they are likely still overpriced, risk management is imperative for those pursuing lower values.

3. Federal Reserve: After the weaker than anticipated CPI numbers printed this Wednesday, and last week’s eroding GDP growth statistics, financial institutions are increasing their risk appetite as they watch U.S Treasury yields decline and consider a mid-term outlook which is allowing for the contemplation of actual Federal Funds Rate cuts.

2. Forex: The EUR/USD is back above the 1.08000 level comfortably, and the GBP/USD has found sustainable trading beyond the 1.26000 ratio. While the major currencies versus the USD have pulled back slightly from near-term highs, large commercial traders are exhibiting risk appetite. A weaker USD centric notion is coming into vogue again.

1. Apex Equities: The three major U.S indices are all near record territories as solid earnings reports from corporations, amidst hopes the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates a couple of times this year has combined to allow optimism to grow in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100. While the U.S public is starting to show they are losing confidence because of escalating consumer prices, financial institutions are wagering on solid returns via economic outlooks. Day traders looking to join the indices parade should make sure they limit their exposure, particularly if they are using CFDs and relying on short-term climbs which can suffer from sudden reversals lower.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 19th of April 2024

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksCommodities

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 19th of April 2024

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10. Fusion: The U.S Senate presented legislation yesterday which creates guidelines allowing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to authorize commercial investment and research of fusion energy. Significant strides are being made in the technology and the U.S government is preparing for the newest developments.

9. Cup of Joe: Your cafe is going to get more expensive. Robusta and Arabica coffee both remain at higher values having hit apex prices respectively this Wednesday and Thursday. And Cocoa remains ‘comfortably’ above 11,000.00 USD per metric ton this morning.

8. United Arab Emirates: The UAE has been hit by heavy weather, suffering its biggest rainfall in 75 years. It was reported that over 14 centimeters of rain fell this Tuesday in Dubai, which is the equivalent to one and a half year’s worth of typical accumulation in the city.

7. India Elections: The vote in the world’s biggest democracy has begun as millions decide on the the Lok Sabha. The election process will take place for nearly a month and a half with the results formally being presented on 4th of June. The Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win a majority in the House of the People, thus likely re-electing Narendra Modi as the country’s Prime Minister.

6. Gold: The precious metal remains within sight of record values with the price around 2,388.00 USD per ounce. Today’s earlier ratios touched the 2,420.00 vicinity.

5. Cone of Silence: Israel and Iran have remained mum on military counterstrike action scuttlebutt, which was heard this morning throughout global media. The silence from the two nations did not stop the Nikkei 225 Index from dropping over 1000 points upon the news.

4. Bitcoin Halving: A coding change is anticipated to occur soon in Bitcoin which will affect ‘mining’ parameters for the digital asset. The code change will double the amount processing needed to create one BTC, making it twice as expensive for Bitcoin operators. Day traders tempted to wager on BTC/USD over the next couple of days need to be careful. BTC/USD is near 64,560.00 at the moment of this report.

3. Fear Factor: Price of WTI Crude Oil is near 82.70 USD per barrel. Large energy traders continue to show they are experienced in geopolitics, remaining relatively calm as Middle East concerns are being brandished.

2. While Flag: U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell conceded that inflation remains stubborn earlier this week. Stagflation is not being discussed openly by the Fed, but it is likely raising concerns among global central bankers. The USD has returned to very strong levels as financial institutions brace for the possibility of U.S interest rates remaining high into the late summer.

1. Behavioral Sentiment: Equity indices, Treasury yields and Forex are within the midst of nervous seas as central banks and geopolitical concerns create storms. Speculators should make sure they pay attention to the waters they traverse with their bets, which could prove dangerous to navigate in the near-term.