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Last Week Caught Many by Surprise, as Fed Looms Wednesday

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Last Week Caught Many by Surprise, as Fed Looms Wednesday

The ECB obviously decided to highlight how seriously they want to fight inflation last Thursday, when they increased their Main Refinancing Rate by a quarter of a point. The move was not only a surprise to many financial institutions, but displayed a large ‘miss’ by most analysts. While some point out the European Central Bank is powered by Germany who have a historically bad memory regarding inflation, it would also be correct to acknowledge the ECB is trying to protect their own currency against the potential volatility the Federal Reserve could cause with a rather aggressive monetary policy stance this coming Wednesday.

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WTI Crude Oil One Month Chart as 18th Sept. 2023

Another broad market influence as this week begins remains the high price of Crude Oil which has now surpassed 90.00 USD per barrel. The higher energy price will certainly not calm inflation anxiousness. Higher energy costs equate into costlier logistics, manufacturing, and agricultural production – this is not a problem central banks wished upon their plates as the final quarter of 2023 gets set to start in a couple of weeks.

Monday, 18th of September, Canada Housing Starts – the housing market in Canada is important to its economy and the nation has enjoyed a housing price bubble for a couple of decades. The past two months have produced higher than expected Housing Starts numbers which is intriguing because Canada is suffering from lackluster growth. The USD/CAD could move slightly on this result, but unless there is a profoundly surprising number from this report, the currency pair will remain focused on ‘other’ things to come.

Tuesday, 19th of September, Canada Consumer Price Index – last week’s CPI and PPI numbers from the U.S came in stronger than anticipated, and Canada’s projected estimates for Tuesday’s results nearly match the nation’s total from last month. Leaving the suspicious notion that inflation could possibly come in stronger in Canada like it did in the U.S last week since these two economies often mirror each other.

Wednesday, 20th of September, China One and Five Year Loan Prime Rates – China continues to be watched closely as investors point out potential dark shadows creating headwinds for the nation economically. The results regarding the loans taken by household and businesses are a solid barometer for outlook if the data is transparent.

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GBP/USD 3 Months Chart as of 18th Sept. 2023

Wednesday, 20th of September, U.K Consumer Price Index – the anticipated numbers expects an inflation result of 7.1%, which would be remarkably high and not treated kindly. The results will create havoc in the GBP/USD because not only is the Fed is waiting literally in the wings after this report, but the BoE is going to respond on Thursday.

Wednesday, 20th of September, U.S Federal Reserve Funds Rate – one week ago this day didn’t look like it would cause that much excitement. This all changed last Thursday when the ECB raised its borrowing costs and put financial institutions into a full state of alarm. Yes, the ECB may have acted on its own, but some suspect they know what the Fed is planning on doing already. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates, but they will certainly sound aggressive and point out inflation remains a danger. Here’s the thing, the ECB sounded quite confident last Thursday, that it will not raise its interest rates again in the mid-term, essentially saying they were done. Did the ECB base this on knowledge that the Fed could do the same thing? What was perceived as a potentially sleepy and quiet Fed meeting and FOMC Statement has now taken on major importance. Forex, U.S Treasuries and global equities will move based on the Federal Reserve’s action and rhetoric. How will the Fed react to higher inflation data?

Thursday, 21st of September, U.K Bank of England Official Bank Rate – the BoE is widely expected to raise the borrowing rate by a quarter of a point. If the Fed did not raise rates the day before and the BoE acts as expected, this could in theory help the GBP/USD gain. However, it should be pointed out following the ECB’s interest rate hike last week, the EUR/USD traded into this past weekend weaker.

Friday, 22nd of September, E.U, U.K and U.S Services and Manufacturers PMI – Europe, Great Britain and the U.S will all release this data on Friday and all expect rather lackluster results. While this data is important, the broad financial markets will likely still be reacting to the actions of the major central banks and the credit crunch problems they are causing globally for consumers and businesses who are facing cash shortfalls and costlier loan expenditures.

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Anxious Results and Outlooks as Traders Brace for Week Ahead

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Anxious Results and Outlooks as Traders Brace for Week Ahead

Speculators with visions of taking advantage of day trading perspectives often look for correlations within asset classes to help gain an outlook on another trading vehicle they may be considering. The problem with this like many things for day traders is that sudden gyrations in asset classes technically are often affected by positioning from large players who do not care what the ‘minnows’ are doing. Institutional trading is frequently done with long-term considerations.

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S&P500 Index Future Three Months Chart as of 11th Sept. 2023

The Forex market has seen the USD grow stronger since the middle of July against most major currencies. At the same time charts via U.S Treasuries clearly demonstrate yields increasing. This is not a coincidence. Market behavior remains anxious as financial institutions look to lock in a certain amount of ‘guaranteed’ returns. Recent economic data has been lackluster from the U.S and this week important inflation numbers are certain to influence existing sentiment.

A side note for day traders who like to study economic data, ‘revisions’ via published data is starting to set off concerns among traders. Revisions to previous statistics reported are becoming a talking point among investors who believe the numbers they are looking at from many countries, including the U.S, need to be given a certain degree of skepticism. The Wall Street Journal published an article about this a couple of weeks ago.

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WTI Crude Oil Three Months Chart as 11th Sept. 2023

In the coming days the price of Crude Oil may make headlines as the commodity enters this week near values last seen in November of 2022. The high price of Crude Oil will spark vocal warnings about potential inflation dangers. Speculative elements within the energy sector will be active and hope to take advantage of its trend. A sustained move above 90.00 USD per barrel would be intriguing.

Some analysts might try to correlate higher energy prices to increased demand from global manufacturing sectors, but this could be questionable considering many spheres are suffering from recessionary pressures. But again, the real facts and dynamics behind a potential sustained climb of Crude Oil prices are complex.

Smaller traders need to understand the news they are reading today was known by ‘insiders’ many days before and they have already acted on their knowledge to take advantage of prices.

The cuts in production from Saudi Arabia and other producers has sparked speculative influence, and perhaps the narrative that outlook for more Crude Oil demand could build if the U.S continues to demonstrate a ‘soft landing’. The chatter and explanations for changes to price are almost limitless and day traders need to be aware they will not be privy certain information.

This leaves the door open for day traders to consider trying to understand market behavior within the financial world. The answer for short-term speculators who are wagering on price direction is not a simple interpretation of technical charts, they should also consider fundamental knowledge of the asset mixed with an understanding of current market dynamics as sentiment shifts among institutional players.

In other news to look out for this week, traders who are active in the cryptocurrency space should continue to monitor the support levels that Bitcoin and Binance Coin are traversing. Incremental drops in value continue to be seen and a sustained reversal higher has been difficult to attain.

Monday, 11th of September, China New Loans – the amount of borrowing from businesses and consumers within China will provide insights regarding the strength (or weakness) of the domestic economy.

Tuesday, 12th of September, U.K Claimant Count Change and Average Earnings Index – the jobs numbers from the U.K will provide the GBP/USD with a bit of additional impetus. The U.K economy is in the spotlight and critics have become loud as many point to Brexit problems, which they claim are causing complications. However, within a global economy that is under pressure the fact that conditions in Britain are difficult doesn’t take a lot of time to find other correlations.

Tuesday, 12th of September, Germany Economic Sentiment via ZEW – the reading is expected to show a negative outlook again from the responses of institutional investors based in Germany. A result of minus -15.0 is the forecast. The report could shake the EUR/USD a bit momentarily.

Wednesday, 13th of September, U.K GDP – growth numbers will certainly get plenty of attention for Britain. The anticipated number is minus -0.2%. If the result is worse than the recessionary estimate it could spark more negative sentiment.

Wednesday, 13th of September, U.S Consumer Price Index reports – inflation statistics will be studied carefully and impact Forex immediately if the published results do not meet expectations. The Federal Reserve, institutional investors and the broad financial markets will react to the CPI data.

Thursday, E.U European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – the ECB is not expected to make any changes to borrowing rates. The European Central Bank is also anticipated to warn that economic conditions remain challenging and they are monitoring inflation and growth. Anything more than these words via the ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference could spark some EUR/USD price action.

Thursday, 14th of September, U.S Producer Price Index – like Wednesday’s inflation numbers, the PPI statistics will affect market sentiment regarding outlook and interpretations regarding the potential responses from the Federal Reserve.

Thursday, 14th of September, U.S Retail Sales – this data will give traders insights regarding the spending habits of U.S consumers, which is a key barometer for equity traders regarding consumer driven stocks, and also because an increase would underscore solid economic sentiment from the public.

Friday, 15th of September, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – these two reports will provide additional insights about the Asian giant. Global investors continue to be concerned about the direction of the Chinese economy. Slight gains are forecast for both publications.

Friday, 15th of September, U.S University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – the preliminary report is expected to have a reading of 69.2 which would be below the previous reading.

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Lack of Big U.S Data this Week but Fed Officials to be Heard

by with No Comment AMT MarketsDataFeatured Highlights

Lack of Big U.S Data this Week but Fed Officials to be Heard

There will be an absence of large trading volume in many markets today, because of the U.S and Canada Labor Day holiday celebrations. Results from forex markets should be considered with a healthy dose of skepticism by day traders. If you choose to participate today, using entry price orders may protect you against the possibility of price volatility due to quiet markets having the ability to create sudden jolts.

Day traders are advised to be on the lookout for potential surges to develop on Tuesday. U.S financial institutions returning to the markets in full could possibly react to economic data from the States that they may not have acted upon yet, this as outlooks may have been reconsidered over the Labor Day weekend. Equities and indices, U.S Treasuries, and gold should get plenty of attention this week as summer trading comes to an end.

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EUR/USD Three Months Chart as of 4th Sept. 2023

Monday, 4th of September, E.U ECB President Christine Lagarde – the ECB chief will be speaking in London later today. The ECB President might get the attention of EUR/USD traders who may still be scratching their heads regarding last week’s decline in the EUR and trying to figure out why it happened.

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AUD/USD Three Months Chart as of 4th Sept. 2023

Tuesday, 5th of September, Australia RBA Cash Rate – the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its ground and make no major changes to interest rate policy. The AUD/USD is trading at lows the RBA has acknowledged are troubling. However, there seems to be little the RBA can really do except to wait out the U.S Federal Reserve’s rhetoric to change. As a note, GDP numbers will come from Australia on Wednesday.

Wednesday, 6th of September, Canada BoC Overnight Rate – the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its interest rate policy steadfast without any changes. The USD/CAD could react momentarily to the Bank of Canada’s Rate Statement.

Thursday, 7th of September, China Trade Balance – economic statistics from China have been troubling over the mid-term and there is no reason to think they are suddenly going to turn optimistic. China is receiving plenty of negative attention from ‘Western’ analysts, but the concerns expressed could be legitimate. Slumping growth, real estates problems, and the shadow of deflation are issues in China.

Thursday, 7th of September, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – several high ranking members from the Fed will be speaking at various conferences across the States. Following the lackluster economic data published in the U.S the past couple of weeks, comments from the Federal Reserve members should be given attention to see if they begin to acknowledge interest rate policy should turn more dovish. USD traders will certainly have the ability to spark Forex on Thursday if rhetoric from the ‘officials’ starts to change tone.

Friday, 8th of September, Japan Final GDP – the Gross Domestic Product numbers could prove interesting for USD/JPY traders. Growth is expected to show a gain of 1.4%. The GDP Price Index results should be watched and are expected to match last month’s number with a gain of 3.4%.

Saturday, 9th of September, China CPI and PPI – the inflation numbers will be of interest to investors. These data reports could prove more important than the Trade Balance results released earlier in the week. The USD/CNY should be monitored in the wake of these inflation (deflation) results.

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Anxiety and Surprising U.S Data for Day Traders to Consider

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Anxiety and Surprising U.S Data for Day Traders to Consider

Global central banks stayed in their anticipated lanes last week as the Fed and ECB raised their key lending rates. The BoJ has admitted it is allowing its yield curve to increase, meaning the Japan government is cutting back on purchases of Japanese bonds. Forex produced anxiety and choppy results for day traders.

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Gold 6 Months Chart as of 30 July 2023

Economic data from the U.S last week provided a strong Gross Domestic Product result on Thursday, and followed with weaker than expected Personal Consumption Expenditures and Personal Income statistics before going into the weekend. Meaning the U.S economy appears to be surprisingly solid, while inflation pressures do indicate they are in decline. The Forex market turned volatile on Thursday and Friday, gold which traded at nearly 1980.00 USD on Thursday went into the weekend near 1959.00.

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VIX Index 1 Year Chart as of 30 July 2023

Stock markets in the U.S via the major indices continue to incrementally rise and folks waiting for a big sustained selloff are having their patience tested. Perceived volatility in U.S markets is very low and the VIX (Volatility Index) indicates many investors are not taking the time to hedge with options because their confidence is remarkably high. A cautious reminder for traders, one bad day could change all of the optimistic sentiment.

In the cryptocurrency world, folks should continue to keep their eyes on the Binance exchange and its Binance coin. Many digital assets seem to be suspiciously close to important support levels as this week begins and appear vulnerable.

Monday, 31st of July, China Manufacturing PMI – while U.S data surprisingly improves, China has not begun to show signs of a positive turnaround quite yet, and this reading is expected to be below last month’s outcome. China data is a solid barometer of global economic health and traders should give these results proper attention.

Monday, 31st of July, E.U Consumer Price Index Flash Estimates – the European CPI numbers are expected to come in slightly below the previous month’s reading. If for some reason these inflation numbers are higher than expected, this could cause some chaos briefly for the EUR/USD. A weaker number however offers no sound wagering basis for short-term day traders either. Behavioral sentiment appears to be ruling the EUR/USD landscape for the time being, and technical levels should be watched.

Tuesday, 1st of August, Australia Reserve Bank Cash Rate – the RBA is expected to follow in the footsteps of the Fed and ECB and raise its lending rate by 0.25%.

Tuesday, 1st of August, E.U Manufacturing PMI – Germany and France are anticipated to produce similar results to last month’s outcomes. Recessionary pressures are a concern in the E.U and better than expected numbers would be welcomed, but this may prove difficult to demonstrate as economic conditions remain challenging.

Tuesday, 1st of August, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – the results from the manufacturing sector in the States should be watched. A slight improvement is expected, but the reading is not expected to produce a wildly optimistic result. An outcome which slightly beats expectations, but is not too strong might make the USD slightly weaker. Global investment institutions are likely hoping for any signs that the Federal Reserve will have to become less aggressive. A lackluster to ‘fair’ ISM Manufacturing PMI result could be evidence larger Forex traders want to see if they are aiming for bearish momentum in the USD.

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NZD/USD 3 Months Chart as of 30 July 2023

Wednesday, 2nd of August, New Zealand Employment Change – the jobs statistics are expected to show slightly weaker results from the nation. The NZD/USD remains within the lower elements of its long-term price range. There are many NZD/USD bullish traders waiting for a sustained reversal higher, but it is unlikely to be produced from these New Zealand jobs numbers.

Thursday, 3rd of August, U.K BoE Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate – the Bank of England remains in a difficult spot and it will likely raise interest rates by another 0.25%. Criticism of the Bank of England has been loud in Britain, but the BoE likely feels it has to remain in line with the Fed and ECB. Recessionary pressures continue in the U.K and inflation remains problematic. Concerns will be heard regarding property mortgages for home owners if the BoE hikes. The GBP/USD will certainly move depending on the rhetoric from the Monetary Policy Summary and talking points delivered by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.

Friday, 4th of August, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs data parade will climax at the end of the week, this after starting on Wednesday via the ADP jobs numbers. Investors will watch the Non-Farm Employment Change data carefully and correlate them to the better than expected GDP results from the 27th of July. The wages data from the Average Hourly Earnings is expected to come in with a slight decrease. A weaker inflation result from the wages statistics could cause additional softness in the USD. However, recent data from the U.S has been hard to predict correctly, and day traders may want to sit on the sidelines until all the jobs numbers are digested.

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Federal Reserve Bank Decision and FOMC Statement Wednesday

by with No Comment Central BanksEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Federal Reserve Bank Decision and FOMC Statement Wednesday

Monday, 24th July 2023, E.U Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – a slew of Purchasing Managers Index readings will come from European Union nations including Germany and France. Projected outcomes are expected to show slight improvement in the Services readings and mixed results from the Manufacturing sector. The EUR/USD may get a momentary nudge from the published numbers.

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EUR/USD 3 Month Chart as of 23rd July 2023

Monday, 24th July 2023, U.K Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the British economic reports are anticipated to come in below last month’s readings. The U.K did report slightly better Retail Sales numbers last week, but a Consumer Confidence outcome was weaker than expected. The GBP/USD might react briefly to the U.K PMI data.

Monday, 24th July 2023, U.S Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the reports from the States are forecast to be below last month’s numbers. U.S data produced nervous and weaker economic insights last week from the Housing sector. The Federal Reserve will certainly give some attention to the PMI data as they try to gauge the strength of the U.S economy while likely preparing to hike the Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday. The PMI statistics could factor into the Fed’s outlook, which is the crucial ingredient that financial institutions want to understand and still have skepticism about while considering the Federal Reserve’s potential actions later this week.

Tuesday, 25th of July 2023, Germany ifo Business Climate – the results are expected to be slightly weaker than last month, showing businesses in Germany are not optimistic about current conditions and outlooks.

Tuesday, 25th of July 2023, U.S CB Consumer Confidence – the report is anticipated to show U.S consumers are feeling more confident about their spending habits. If this report is stronger than expected, it could be one final clue before the U.S Federal Reserve springs into action the next day.

Wednesday, 26th of July 2023, U.S Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – most financial institutions are prepared for a hike of 0.25%, which would bring the key borrowing cost to 5.50%. This number has been anticipated for a handful of weeks and any deviation would cause volatility. Forex has largely priced in the rate hike. Speculators need to pay attention to the FOMC Statement regarding outlook regarding comments on inflation, growth and what the Fed is prepared to do moving forward.

Because U.S inflationary price pressures showed a decrease recently, many financial institutions are likely betting on a slightly more optimistic sounding FOMC Statement. The question is if the Federal Reserve will risk sounding dovish, or continue to voice disciplined rhetoric about its ability fight inflation as needed and keep a middle ground. For all the criticism of the U.S Federal Reserve if it can raise interest rates without causing a credit crunch on mid and small sized banks the remainder of the summer, that would be a victory – particularly if it is perceived the U.S central bank will not raise hike the Federal Funds Rate the remainder of the year. However, that remains to be seen.

Thursday, 27th of July, E.U European Central Bank’s Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – the ECB is expected raise their key lending rate by 0.25% and back up their recent ‘tough’ and heightened rhetoric regarding inflation. Again, day traders should understand the interest rate hike to 4.25% has been anticipated and largely digested into Forex. The question is the ‘voiced’ concern from the ECB within its Monetary Policy Statement. Financial institutions will react to the ECB Press Conference led by Christine Legarde, which comes about half an hour after the release of the Monetary Policy Statement.

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USD/JPY 3 Month Chart as of 23rd July 2023

Friday, 28th of July, Japan BoJ Policy Rate and Outlook Report – the Bank of Japan is the one global central bank that marches to its owner drummer and this will not change in the near-term. The BoJ is expected to keep its policies of low interest rates in place, voice concern about inflation and likely say their ‘boat’ remains steady on the water. The USD/JPY will have reacted before to the rhetoric from the Federal Reserve in the middle of the week. Yes, the USD/JPY could see a flourish of volatility on Friday, but most of it will have likely been seen already on Wednesday and early Thursday.

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Risk Events and Questioning the Hyperbole of ‘Bad Actors’

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Risk Events and Questioning the Hyperbole of 'Bad Actors'

The week in a way has already started for financial institutions and traders because of the developing news from Russia. Due to yesterday’s events surrounding the ‘noise’ caused by the Wagner Group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, let there be no doubt that energy sector traders became nervous and fragile behavioral sentiment was being anticipated for Monday’s openings. However, like a well staged drama (perhaps this is giving too much credit to the actors) the Russian saga seems to have come to an odd conclusion. Leaving the possibility for a Part Two to develop. Stay tuned ladies and gentlemen.

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 25th June 2023

Monday, the 26th of June, Germany ifo Business Climate – the reading is forecast to come in worse than the previous month. Germany has turned in rather troubling economic data and the E.U as a whole is struggling under the weight of inflation and lackluster growth. The EUR/USD could be affected from the business climate survey.

Monday, the 26th of June, E.U ECB Forum on Central Banking – the annual event which is a bit like the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium will be attended by the leading central bank officials from around the globe. This year’s event in Sintra, Portugal will focus on inflation. ECB President Christine Legarde will kick off the event, which will end on Wednesday the 28th of June with speeches from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and others.

Tuesday, the 27th of June, Canada Consumer Price Index – a slew of inflation reports will be delivered. The forecast anticipates a slight drop in price pressure, but will that actually be the result? The USD/CAD could move based on the outcomes.

Tuesday, the 27th of June, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board – this survey is expected to show a slight improvement in the outlook of American consumers.

Wednesday, the 28th of June, E.U ECB Forum on Central Banking – the event will conclude with speeches from the heads of the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Federal Reserve. The event is not supposed to stir up the dust, but Forex traders should monitor the rhetoric generated.

Thursday, the 28th of June, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the data is expected to show an increase in prices and underscore the ECB’s aggressive rhetoric regarding inflation.

Thursday, the 28th of June, U.S Final Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers are projected to show a gain of 1.4% compared to last month’s 1.3%. The results will move the financial markets if they are surprising. Traders should be on the lookout for revisions to the previous month’s numbers.

Friday, the 29th of June, U.K Final Gross Domestic Product – an expected ‘growth’ number of 0.1% is anticipated, which would match last month’s lackluster outcome. The U.K is hovering under recessionary pressures and this GDP result will be watched by GBP/USD day traders.

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Week Ahead: Inflation Followed by the U.S Federal Reserve

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Week Ahead: Inflation Followed by the U.S Federal Reserve

Monday, 12th of June, U.S Federal Budget Balance – hold down the laughter and snickers please as you wonder why you should care, this as the report shows monthly income versus spending from the month before. Yes, the U.S ‘Debt Ceiling’ bill was passed recently. Very few people are going to pay attention to Budget Balance report, except economists and traders who have ‘skin in the game’ via hedge funds as an example – that make long-term bets, and U.S politicians who want to hoot and holler…….while nothing really gets done to limit wasteful spending in Washington D.C.

Tuesday, 13th of June, U.S Consumer Price Index reports – yes, this inflation data will be important per the monthly numbers showing what consumers are spending. A slight uptick is expected with an outcome of plus 0.2% via the broad statistics – last month’s number showed a gain of 0.4%. The outcome of the broad and core CPI statistics will give the Federal Reserve a sounding board for what will take place on Wednesday via the Federal Funds Rate announcement. Stronger than expected inflation numbers could cause a rupture and nervousness. A weaker result would calm Forex and perhaps make the USD slightly weaker.

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 11th June 2023

Wednesday, 14th of June, U.S Producer Price Index – these numbers will be released early in the day and will be followed by the Federal Reserve five and half hours later. The inflation outcome via the PPI if stronger than anticipated would cause some caution before the Federal Reserve takes the stage.

Wednesday, 14th of June, U.S Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference – while many analysts seem convinced the Fed will not hike the interest rate this week, there are obviously no guarantees. The FOMC Statement will indicate the U.S central bank’s outlook. Traders who are intent on trading before the official interest rate announcement and statement are playing with fire. Speculators should keep in mind that other central banks have surprised folks with increases recently including Canada and Australia. A hike from the U.S Federal Reserve would surprise a lot of people and financial institutions, but stranger things have happened.

Thursday, 15th of June, New Zealand Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers which will come out a handful of hours after the U.S Fed leaves the stage will be intriguing and provide NZD/USD traders more impetus into what will likely already be a volatile trading session taking place.

Thursday, 15th of June, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – these two reports from the economic giant will be watched closely. China’s economy is struggling a bit, and weakness in the housing sector via values are starting to cause a reaction in domestic spending. Industrial Production numbers will give some insights regarding global demand. Economic problems in Europe and North America are certainly not helping matters in China because demand for goods are restrained and hurting the manufacturing sector.

Thursday, 15th of June, U.S Retail Sales – consumers in the U.S have been expected to start producing negative numbers via these statistics, will they begin to do it? A stronger number would be of interest to some, but after Wednesdays’ FOMC Statement and news that will be generated, it is questionable who will give full attention to this report and what affect it could have.

Thursday, 15th of June, E.U ECB Press Conference – this question and answer session could prove to be interesting depending on what the U.S Fed does the day before. Certainly the European Central Bank will give their opinions on monetary policy and economic circumstances in the European Union and abroad. The EUR/USD could be affected.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 11th June 2023

Friday, 16th of June, Japan BoJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – no major changes are expected from the Bank of Japan. This is the one central bank unwilling to change its attitude regarding monetary policy because of the whims of others. Perhaps if the U.S Federal Reserve surprised everyone on Wednesday with a hike, this could change the quiet rhetoric from the BoJ – but even that is doubtful. USD/JPY traders should pay attention to the BoJ Press Conference just in case.

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Risk Events Pose Danger this Week

by with No Comment Central BanksDataFeatured Highlights

Risk Events Pose Danger this Week

Monday 1st of May, U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI – weaker than expected Advance GDP results last week make this report of keen interest for investors regarding U.S growth (or recessionary) prospects.

Tuesday 2nd of May, Australia RBA Cash Rate – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the line regarding borrowing.

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EUR/USD 1 Month Chart as of 30th April

Wednesday 3rd of May, U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate – U.S central bank expected to raise by another 0.25% making key lending mark 5.25%. This number has been digested into the broad markets, what investors want to know is the Fed’s June outlook. Federal Reserve outlook and FOMC Press Conference will move Forex and equities globally. Traders remains suspicious regarding another hike in June.

Thursday 4th of May, E.U ECB Main Refinancing Rate – European Central Bank expected to hike by another 0.25%. Anything different would be a surprise. ECB Press Conference should be rather tranquil.

Friday 5th of May, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – while jobs numbers are always of interest, it is the earnings statistics which should be watched and will give insight regarding inflation and potential actions about Fed’s June considerations.