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Trump: Will He or Won’t He Day and Uncertainty for Investors

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Trump: Will He or Won't He Day and Uncertainty for Investors

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EURUSD One Month Chart as of 2nd April 2025

Liberation/Tariff Day will blow onto the global financial shores this morning. President Trump and his team are certain to take a victory lap as they announce their decisions regarding actions being imposed on commodities and products. Nations who are on the other end of the drama will be braced for the rhetoric and policies. Investors, trade ministers, financial institutions will have to sift through the pronouncements and consider their outlooks amidst uncertainty.

Trading today will be rough for smaller speculators. Choppy conditions should be expected as behavioral sentiment twists according to shifting winds and interpretations. President Trump is likely to announce aggressive penalties, but he may also try to soothe those who have worried about being punished. As an example, Trump has said recently that India has acted upon many of the White House’s wishes. Mexico, Canada, the European Union and China are likely to be mentioned as the U.S President speaks later today. Will a public scolding take place again?

Equities have faltered the past month, Forex has been volatile and commodity prices have also reflected fragile sentiment as outlooks became grey. The tariff policies announced today will affect all aspects of the financial world. Day traders thinking about wagering on the outcome should be patient and wait for the reactions which unfold from Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Wall Street will certainly be a barometer, along with the EUR/USD, USD/MXN, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/SGD and gold.

While President Trump declares this is a great and magnificent day for the U.S, it will be of keen interest if an olive branch is offered to trading partners. After talking tough the past few months, financial institutions would like to hear words of optimism from the White House. If belligerence is heard and punitive actions are enacted, which are considered unproductive by investors and financial institutions the broad markets will show their disdain promptly.

President Trump’s skills as a negotiator will be judged today. The White House must play towards its constituency and show they are putting America First, but will the President also display he is cognizant that international trade provides benefits? Trump will point to his claim that he is merely putting tariffs on those who have treated the U.S unjustly and use levies against U.S goods.

It will be an important day for the Trump Presidency, because in many respects the global audience watching will decide whether or not the U.S sees itself as part of the global fabric or seeks a position which is isolationist. Brazil will look on the tariff theater intently, its position as a trading center may find increased demand from a host of nations.

Predicting the results: On the 3rd of February a fast and dangerous Forex market developed which witnessed USD centric strength exhibited with spikes in many currency pairs. In early March reactionary trading was displayed in equity indices, Forex and bonds too. Today will see wide spreads emerge in Forex with near-term resistance and support levels proving vulnerable.

Equities which sold off in March via the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 and the Russell index are certainly hoping for a dose of cheer. The question is if Trump will deliver a positive message. The likelihood is that today’s events will not be the last of the tariff tirades and some proposed actions remain under deliberation. Today is unlikely to produce final results and the broad markets are probably going to be choppy as outlooks stay mitigated and absent of clear resolutions.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 4th April 2025

Day traders should think safety first today. Gold remains within record territory. If unpredictability rules near-term and the reactions of investors and financial institutions create fast conditions, the precious metal and bonds will find takers. Uncertainty breeds cravings for risk adverse assets.

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Central Banks Noise: Holiday Trading Put on Hold For a Bit

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Central Banks Noise: Holiday Trading Put on Hold For a Bit

As suspected the Federal Reserve sounded more cautious than many analysts expected yesterday. While the Fed did cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 to 4.50%, they essentially opened the door to allowing the current borrowing rate to simmer over the mid-term. Yes, they did suggest they would like to lower interest rates, but it sounded more like wishful thinking. In response to the more aggressive rhetoric (hawkish) from the Federal Reserve financial markets became volatile in equities, Forex and bonds.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 19th December 2024

The show is not over yet ladies and gentlemen, this morning the Bank of Japan repeated their typical historic stance of proving cautious, and later today the Bank of England will step onto centerstage with their Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate. And here is where things may get more odd, the BoE in many circles is not expected to cut its interest rate even though the U.K economy has been struggling and continues to publish lackluster statistics. The current borrowing rate via the Bank of England stands at 4.75%. Though the BoE should consider a rate cut of 0.25 certainly, and may even have enough reasons to decrease by 0.50, they may do absolutely nothing and that would be a mistake.

If the BoE decides to remain overtly guarded this will cause some bedlam with the GBP/USD. Large commercial players may choose to punish the GBP/USD as they consider their cash forward positions. Retail traders should be extremely careful if they choose to speculate on the British Pound in the coming hours. Not to say the GBP/USD is going to have a Liz Truss like moment from September 2022 today, but Forex traders have been selling the currency pair based on nervous outlooks over the past three months. If the Bank of England looks at the incoming headlights via the GBP/USD bearish trend and does not move, they might get run over by the truck.

Big and small traders certainly have the approaching holiday season on their minds and they might be getting things in order to take a break for the next couple of weeks, but financial markets because of the central banks actions yesterday and today will not allow for comfortable thoughts. And this is important, because some financial institutions are shuttering for the long holiday starting this Friday, they may be more prone to being quite cautious going into a period where trading volumes will light and assets will be exposed to the potential of sudden gyrations caused by large positions being placed in unbalanced markets. In other words, equities, Forex and bonds will be dangerous today and tomorrow. Behavioral sentiment will be the power.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 18th of November

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Musings for the 18th of November

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10. Election Results: The U.S election concluded almost two weeks ago and there is no discussion this time around of mischievous results, which we can all be thankful. However, there is still talk about results from the past, but perhaps these folks should be thankful for the prospect of a serendipitous outcome this time and get to work.

9. Conspirators: The Onion has tried to buy InfoWars via an auction which is now under review by a court to judge if the procedure was undertaken fairly. Alex Jones’s InfoWars and its sometimes other worldly offering of bizarre and misguided notions is in bankruptcy. The Onion wants to turn the tables on InfoWars and dedicate the ‘purchase’ of the site to ridiculing media and conspiracy folks who produce mindless gobbledygook.

8. From Beyond: The UAP, unidentified aerial phenomena, hearing before Congress last week led to a variety of questions and answers which rehashed known ‘unknowns’ while discussing orders of magnitudes of speed and g-forces that humans and machines can endure. The UAP (UFO) hearing didn’t disclose much in the way of developments regarding alien crafts visiting Earth, except to make it obvious to some that if ‘they’ are out there, we had better hope they are friendly. And if it is earthly corporations or nations testing and displaying new technologies, there seems to be little information publicly available about who may be playing in the skies and waters. Optical illusions?

7. Polymarket Raid: Many folks started pointing fingers when the CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, had his home raided on the 13th of November, claiming the FBI was politicizing Polymarket’s prediction that Donald Trump would win the U.S President race. But after further review, few have pointed out that Kalshi Inc., which also operates in the U.S and allows sentiment betting was not raided. The difference perhaps being that Kalshi is regulated via contract markets with the CFTC, and Polymarket is not and appears to be potentially operating in non-accordance to U.S laws.

6. Bitcoin & Coffee: BTC/USD continues to tread within the highest of tides and is slightly below 92,000 as of this writing. Coffee Arabica and Robusta are boiling within apex price ranges. Cocoa also remains rather impressively expensive. Which one of these speculative assets has no intrinsic value?

5. Buyer Remorse: At some juncture votes may start to feel a bit of angst per their recent voting decisions. We suggest to Polymarket and Kalshi to allow wagers on when this might be displayed in mass. However, in a very real way the U.S election in two years will be the key instrument to gauge the reaction to what is about to come from the new White House administration. Who will control the House of Representatives in two years time?

4. Forex: Foreign exchange should likely be placed in a number two or one AMT ranking, except to say we do not think retail traders should be enticed by being told no. Volatility that has pervaded the FX markets is not finished quite yet. While USD centric strength continues to cause upheavals against major currencies, and technical support and resistance levels are testing mid and long-term considerations, there still may be a week or so left in swirling whipsaw storms. Risk management has hopefully helped retail traders survive to wager again, but it shouldn’t be today.

3. Fed Donations: Federal law mandates employees of the U.S government, https://www.commerce.gov/sites/default/files/2023-08/political_activities-dos_and_donts-2022.pdf, must disclose their political donations. Recent studies indicate that approximately 90% of Federal Reserve employee donations to political candidates go to Democrats, https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-employees-overwhelmingly-donate-democratic-175055289.html. This highlights the possibility that many current Fed employees have different perspectives regarding economics compared to those about to take positions of power in Washington D.C.

2. See No Data: U.S economic statistics have been rather tame recently, but financial institutions clearly are not paying much attention to near-term considerations about the potential influence of the Federal Reserve and interest rates. Instead behavioral sentiment appears anxiety laden. Retail traders and large speculators may be getting crushed together in a cyclone of certain assets, particularly if they are trying to fight short-term trends while infatuated with mid-term outlooks. The Fed may cut interest rates again in December.

1. The Clash: The highs in U.S Treasury yields and record territory of U.S stocks being traversed together indicates we will see a rather violent collision when one of these investment pursuits likely capitulates to market dynamics, allowing the other to take precedent. Some long-term investors may be nervous about President-elect Trump taking power in the third week of January, but it would be unwise to bet against him in the next six months. Meaning stocks may ultimately win this battle of attrition against bonds and prove they are more appealing.

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Nervous? Central Banks Cautious, FX and Asset Equilibrium

by with No Comment AssetsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Nervous? Central Banks Cautious, FX and Asset Equilibrium

Sometimes when looking for ideas regarding a risk analysis article it is difficult to find a timely subject. Exaggeration is often used to grab attention. This week and next will not be one of those times. Equities, Forex and commodities have produced nervous results since last Monday. The broad markets appear to be in search of equilibrium, but price velocity while higher than normal hasn’t produced a volcanic surge of pain. Financial institutions were presented less than inspiring jobs data this past Friday and day traders hopefully had their risk management working. Everyone will need to be paying attention this week too.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Gold has hovered around the 2,500.00 level and while it certainly is a short-term speculative asset for day traders, the precious metal also serves as distinct barometer of behavioral sentiment and long-term guidance regarding inflation. Recent economic data has created concerns in financial institutions about the potential for a stronger than anticipated U.S downturn. The volatility and sell off in equity indices last week is a clear sign investors would like the Federal Reserve to be more aggressively dovish.

This coming week is packed with a variety of risk events which will keep all market participants engaged. Long-term investors may feel calm as they rely on their outlooks which extend over a handful of years, but anyone who needs a firm grasp on short and mid-term viewpoints might not be comfortable. It is important not to cry wolf too often, but based on the trading results seen the past week it is worthwhile to point to the turbulent outcomes and issue a warning that more volatility could develop.

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Nasdaq 100 One Month Chart as of 9th of Sept. 2024

Some analysts may apply the thought that what we have seen was profit taking, and this can certainly be debated. The coming two weeks have plenty of noteworthy events on the calendar. Besides the listed risk highlights noted below, the Fed will release its FOMC Statement on Wednesday the 18th, the BoE will follow on the 19th and not to be outdone the Bank of Japan will step onto center stage on Friday the 20th of September.

While long-term investors likely believe all variables will return to known price realms and that central banks sooner or later will fall into their proper places regarding monetary policy, day traders who are gambling on short-term momentum must try to figure out where behavioral sentiment is leaning. One of the ways speculators without deep pockets can put the odds in their favor concerning potential profits, is to make sure they are practicing rock solid risk management and not stepping into Forex trades, equity indices via CFDs wagers, and commodities bets when they are displaying rough conditions without being prepared.

Monday, 9th of Sept., China Consumer and Producer Price Index – the inflation reports from China both came in below their estimates earlier today. While some may believe that less inflation than predicted is a good thing, it isn’t when the economy is suffering from deflationary pressures. Lackluster spending from consumers in China continues to highlight negative sentiment about prospects for growth. The USD/CNY is near the 7.1125 ratio as of this writing.

Tuesday, 10th of Sept., U.S Presidential Debate – while not an economic data event, investors might want to pay attention to the answers given by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The race for the White House appears to be close according to various polling. It could prove interesting for financial institutions if Harris is questioned about her ideas regarding taxing unrealized capital gains.

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USD Cash Index One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Wednesday, 11th of Sept., U.S Consumer Price Index data – the inflation reports will certainly get the attention of financial institutions. If the annual CPI report comes in weaker than the previous outcome, this could spark more USD centric weakness in Forex. All asset classes will react to the inflation numbers because they are likely to play a major part in the Fed’s FOMC decision in one week’s time. The USD Cash Index is still lingering near lows, but for it too resume a more bearish trajectory, financial institutions will need to believe the Federal Reserve is going to become increasingly dovish.

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Thursday, 12th of Sept., European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – The ECB is definitely going to cut its prime borrowing interest rate, the question is how much of a haircut they are going to provide. A 0.25% cut has certainly been traded into the EUR/USD, but many financial institutions believe there is a possibility to see a 0.50% basis cut. Can the ECB and Christine Legarde be aggressive? The European Union remains under recessionary pressures and inflation data is starting to show signs of erosion. The amount of the interest rate cut from the ECB will also be a telltale sign regarding what will happen via the Federal Reserve on the 18th of September. The EUR/USD will react to the European Central Bank’s decision, and global assets in far off places may react too because behavioral sentiment among investors may shift according to the rhetoric provided. Prediction: The ECB will stay cautious and cut by 0.25%, while saying a November rate cut is likely if economic data remains under pressure. Having said the above, the ECB should cut by 0.50% this Thursday, if they do not – financial institutions will not be pleased unless ECB President Legarde sounds very dovish during her Press Conference.

Thursday, 12th of Sept., U.S Producer Price Index – more inflation data from the U.S will provide investors an other opportunity to glance into the Fed’s looking glass. But if these PPI numbers meet or are near the anticipated results, financial institutions may be reacting to the ECB’s rate decision more because they might believe it is a better clue regarding the Fed’s Federal Funds Rate decision which will come in a handful of days.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 9th Sept. 2024

Friday, 13th of Sept., Japan Revised Industrial Production – this number may not get much attention, but because the Bank of Japan will release its Policy Rate on the 20th, the outcome could impact existing sentiment in the USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen has continued its bearish trajectory and traders who are wagering on more downside should not bet blindly on selling positions because intraday trading remains very choppy. The USD/JPY is now touching values last seen in a sustained manner in early January of 2024, lower values were seen in December 2023, and lower ratios that traversed the 138.000 realm and proved choppy occurred in the spring of 2023.

Saturday, 14th of Sept., China New Home Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production – this parade of data from the nation will be important. Foreign investors remain concerned about China’s economic prospects. The deflationary winds that have been blowing in the Asian giant have been well documented. The results from these three reports are expected to be lackluster.

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Has a Great Selloff Begun? The Fed Holds a Crucial Card

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Has a Great Selloff Begun? The Fed Holds a Crucial Card

Once upon a time the Federal Reserve caused a massive amount of fear to simmer and then boil over in the global market place but this is no fairy tale, the date was the 5th of August 2024 to be exact. However, the trigger causing events to unfold was pulled on Thursday the 31st of July. The Bank of Japan increased their policy rate to 0.25%, which was an increase of 0.15%. Then later on the same day the U.S Fed published a cautious sounding FOMC Statement followed by an inconclusive Press Conference, which left investors scratching their heads.

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Nikkei 225 Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

Markets started to react with scorn on Friday the the 1st of August, particularly when the U.S jobs numbers showed a big miss with the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, and also a lower than anticipated Average Hourly Earnings report was produced. Because Japan was essentially closed for equity trading when the U.S jobs data was released late on Friday, the Nikkei 225 responded with fury on the 5th of August. Global markets essentially crumbled over the next twelve hours as a massive selloff was sparked.

Some analysts noted the move lower in equity indices was an overreaction and the wild Forex trading would calm down, and this began quite predictably on the 6th of August. In essence the bad jobs numbers from the U.S proved the Federal Reserve was being too cautious and would need to begin sounding more aggressive regarding interest rate cuts. This dynamic played out when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made his Jackson Hole Symposium speech on the 23rd of August and admitted the Fed would have to begin cutting interest rates – and he seemed to indicate the use of a plural regarding Federal Funds Rate cuts. This dynamic essentially confirmed what most financial institutions had bet on starting in late July via Forex. Equity indices which were able to recover plenty of lost ground after the 5th of August, also built up more momentum per Powell’s rhetoric at Jackson Hole.

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USD Cash Index Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

However, Powell while sounding more dovish did not say how much the Fed would cut by in September. And based on the history of the Fed’s rather cautious and very passive monetary policy over the past handful of years, many financial institutions likely felt a cautious outlook should include a 0.25% cut on the 18th of September and then another 0.25% move lower in November. In the last week of August – yes, last week – equity markets started to show signs of nervousness again and the USD began to produce choppy trading before going into the Labor Day holiday.

Yesterday’s large selloff in assets has sparked more worries. While it is clear U.S inflation data has shown signs of erosion, the Federal Reserve has not indicated in any form that a Federal Funds Rate cut of more than 0.25% should be expected in two weeks. And perhaps not so coincidentally, the U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings data will be published this Friday. The outcome of these two reports will shake the ground for investors and financial institutions may be positioning for the drama.

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Nvidia Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

An interesting three month barometer looking backwards has been created by Nvidia which has been choppy. While it remains only a ‘stock’, the company’s earnings and outlook are firmly on center stage for many investors. Nvidia has soared in value the past year. While some may feel that the asset is within a bubble, the company continues to post impressive earnings and its outlook appears bright as new software and hardware relies upon its products and development promises. Some analysts have said that earnings reports from Nvidia are now just as important as U.S economic data like inflation and jobs numbers. However, that is overstated, but let there be no doubt that Nvidia’s trading results over the next six months will probably tell us a lot about global market conditions and behavioral sentiment within financial institutions.

Day traders should not panic, they have the capability of watching from the sidelines if they choose over the next few days. The USD is still standing on weaker legs and Gold remains near 2,500.00 USD. Investors who have long-term holdings will certainly be nervous and want to make sure their mid-term yield perspectives are alright and their long-term targets are safe. Speculators small and large know the Fed will definitely cut the Federal Funds Rate in September. Yet, the trillion dollar question is if the Fed will only cut by 0.25%?

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 4th September 2024

If the U.S jobs numbers this Friday come in below anticipated results once again, the Fed should strongly consider a 0.50% basis cut to the Federal Funds Rate on the 18th, that is what financial institutions would certainly like to see. They should also consider coming out with a brief statement this Friday to make sure investors know that a more aggressive stance will be taken if the jobs numbers are weak. However, as long time day traders and investors know, it is not in the Fed’s nature to grab the microphone loudly, unless a seismic event is taking place in the world and inflicting harm on the financial markets. Are investors now trying to warn the U.S Federal Reserve that they will ignite a major selloff unless the Fed becomes more aggressive?

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Telling Someone to Not Trade Works Like Reverse Psychology

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Telling Someone to Not Trade Works Like Reverse Psychology

From the strange but true file, comes the realization after working within risk analysis for a long time that telling a speculator to avoid a particular market because I believe it is going to be volatile often has the opposite effect. Perhaps the best thing to do is to remain silent and allow inexperienced day traders to lose their money, convincing them to walk away from speculative endeavors forever. But I prefer to constantly teach and warn, while providing help for those who have made the firm decision they want to pursue the financial markets.

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It is rather well documented that 90% of retail traders lose their money. And as pointed out within AMT since our inception most brokerage institutions are counting on you to lose money. This because many platforms are letting you trade via CFD assets and virtual Forex wagering, meaning the brokers take the risks that you may actually make money and are willing to pay out your winning bet, because they know most of the time you are going to lose. If not today then tomorrow, because casinos always believe the gamblers will lose.

People ask why I refer to wagers and bets when I write about Forex, commodities and equity CFDs. The answer is because I feel the need to remind speculators constantly they are entering a domain that is akin to gambling. I have come to learn that I cannot stop inexperienced day traders from making costly mistakes by telling them not to trade. New retail speculators can be helped by providing them risk management via basic knowledge and expanding upon the theme. Angry Meta Traders intends to always make risk management and analysis of the markets its core foundation.

Yes, we also provide our insights about potential directions in particular assets constantly, and try to contribute our thoughts on the thinking of the large players within the marketplace. We would like AMT to become a membership pass into the temple for retail traders and the occasional institutional participant that reads our material. Temples are usually the domain for philosophies which have been gained through years of experience and contemplation about the human condition.

While it may sound absurd to discuss temples, experienced traders unless they have been merely lucky their entire careers, know the psychology of financial institutions is always important. Understanding the behavioral sentiment of large players and the quantitative engineering they use to make decisions is crucial. The keys to the inner workings of the financial temples is a metaphor, hopefully allowing day traders to feel like they have been given the ability to look inside and understand the decision making process of large institutions that can move the markets.

Angry Meta Traders is not always right, our analysis and predicted movements about assets are sometimes wrong. Yet, by stressing risk management via limited leverage, stop losses when appropriate (they almost always are), and telling traders to not be overly ambitious, we hope AMT delivers constant reinforcement and needed learning.

The noise of the market can be quite intense, false narratives, and misguided analysis are dangers all traders face, even the most experienced large players and financial institutions understand they will not always be correct. And this takes us back to the notion that trading for inexperienced people is not easy. But I know telling you not to trade works in the wrong way. So what I tell you now is to be patient, learn, gather wisdom as you trade and hopefully you will attain some of the tools needed to make your speculative life easier. Knowing that 90% of traders lose money, we hope that via our efforts to inform that we can put you within the small percentage of people who actually profit.

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Tranquility: Forex, Equities and Treasury Yields Drama-Free

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Tranquility: Forex, Equities and Treasury Yields Drama-Free

Sometimes no news is welcome. The markets though not devoid of drama, have been relatively tranquil. It is obviously summer in the northern hemisphere which helps bring about quiet, this since many ‘active’ market participants are off vacationing having been allowed to go on holiday. The implosion in the markets on the 5th of August after the dangerous riptides created by the combination of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan have certainly eased and evidence of the chaos is fading. Retail traders who are always looking at charts and for opportunities may have even been able to rest too the past week and a half.

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USD/JPY Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

The USD/JPY as of this moment is near 147.185. The Nikkei 225 has recovered lost ground from over-reactive selling on the 5th of August. The value of the Japanese equity index is within extremely intriguing territory as financial institutions are clearly taking a wait and see approach regarding more BoJ and Fed rhetoric, combined with fundamental analysis of Japan’s economy and their companies in consideration. It is a healthy market dynamic, particularly via a notion the Nikkei 225 having reached an early August equilibrium is a solid result, this if you have a long-term viewpoint.

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Nikkei 225 Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

The GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/SGD have all seen better results for traders who have been wagering on USD centric weakness. Even the USD/ZAR has produced a solid trajectory. U.S Treasuries yields are falling.

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Gold Six Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

Yes, day traders definitely have different approaches compared to long-term investors, but if a speculator who is accustomed to quick trades synthesizes an outlook using the behavioral sentiment of long-term institutional players, they might find it helps build some foundations which help perceptions when deciding what to pursue. The use of barometers is always good too, this often gives a trader insights regarding market mood even if it is not an asset class they want to pursue. Gold is within record territory as it hovers around 2,500.00 USD per ounce.

Investors can argue all day and night about interpretations regarding results. The trading within gold the past six months, even since November of 2022 opens doors to a vast amount of complex explanations and narratives. They are too numerous to argue here, but the ability of the precious metal to march higher should continue to be watched. The recent surge higher since the end of June suggests – but it is again, only an explanation after the results have been seen – that gold traders believed the Federal Reserve would have to eventually capitulate and stop behaving hawkish about interest rates.

And this brings us squarely to this weeks events. Yes, the DNC is underway in Chicago and hopefully it provides a rather calm atmosphere free of political chaos via unwanted demonstrators. If investors can focus on the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes report which will be published on Wednesday this would be good.

Because the Fed refused to sound dovish in their last FOMC Statement this created the potential for massive retaliation by institutional traders, and when coupled with the BoJ hike and their rhetoric, market turmoil in Japan and globally promptly ensued for a few days. However, because of recent inflation data again highlighting U.S prices via Producer Price Index are stable and decreasing in some sectors, and CPI has continued to come in below anticipated results, investors again firmly believe the Federal Reserve will definitely cut the Fed Funds Rate by at least 0.25% in September, and may be in a position to cut in November. Thus, the weakness and volatility of the USD which is clear to see via the USD Cash Index results.

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USD Cash Index Three Month Chart as of 20th August 2024

Yet and potentially amusing tomorrow, the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes may simply restate the cautious and very passive rhetoric from the last FOMC Statement. This because the Meeting Minutes are a reflection on thoughts shared at the Fed meeting, and we know what that outcome was already. Meaning tomorrow’s publication may scare some investors, but it shouldn’t. Tomorrow’s Fed paper may prove to be a non-event.

This sets the table for the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming which starts on Thursday to produce a myriad of central banker statements led by Jerome Powell and his counterparts from the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. The event is likely going to be important, but much of the talk which occurs in closed meetings is unlikely going to be made public.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

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10. Word of the day: Ultracrepidarian is a person who speaks assertively about subjects that are beyond their level of knowledge. The world is full of many suspects ladies and gentlemen.

9. Steve Albini: The musician and production sound engineer passed away earlier this week in Chicago. Albini was a pioneer and leader in ‘alternative’ music and battled homogenized corporate music for nearly 40 years. Nirvana, Fugazi, Jimmy Page, the Pixies, P.J Harvey are some of the many that worked with Albini.

8. Bitcoin: BTC/USD continues to hover around the 63,000.00 realm per a three month technical chart perspective. Bitcoin’s higher values via one year results are being maintained. BNB/USD is lurking near 600.00 per a three month glance.

7. Commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices remain elevated. After touching a low around the 7,250.00 USD mark last week per metric ton, Cocoa is now within sight of 9,000.00 USD again. Retail speculators who like to wager via CFDs on commodities need to remember their bets have no influence on the markets, which are in complete control by the largest players in the commodities sector.

6. Wayve Technologies: A U.K based company specializing in autonomous driving software has announced they have raised more than 1 billion USD in investments recently via the likes of Softbank, Nvidia and Microsoft. The U.K government has highlighted Wayve, proclaiming it shows Britain will be a major force in AI development. Wayve was established in 2017 and is still a privately held company.

5. U.S Foreign Policy: Election concerns appear to be a prime motivator for the U.S executive branch as its attempts to walk a fine line regarding diplomacy and saber-rattling in the Middle East. Polling from a variety of sources indicate Joe Biden is in jeopardy of not being reelected.

4. USD/CNY: China will release its Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers early on Saturday. The USD/CNY is trading around the 7.2245 mark as of this writing. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the China Yuan weakening via attempts by the Chinese government to boost exports. The USD/CNY certainly remains within the higher elements of its range, but is below marks seen in early September 2023 which were around the 7.3425 ratio.

3. Data Warning: While day traders may be inclined to look at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading today, they should remember to pay attention to the Inflation Expectations statistics. Last month’s inflation report produced a result of 3.2%, which delivered a solid dose of volatility to financial assets.
2. Forex: Behavioral sentiment appears to be leaning towards a weaker outlook for the USD as major currencies like the EUR, GBP (solid GDP numbers also helped this morning in Britain) and others have gained. However, its should be pointed out that the USD/JPY has seen an incremental climb since touching a low of nearly 151.880 last Friday. As of this writing the USD/JPY is around the 155.650 level.

1. Equity Indices: Bullish optimism has been seen in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq as all three major indices are ready to start the day near highs for the week. The burst of upwards momentum which started last Thursday, has ignited the major U.S indices within sight of their apex realms achieved in late March and early April.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Intrigues for the 17th of May 2024

by with No Comment CommoditiesDataFinancial Institutions

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Intrigues for the 17th of May 2024

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10. Georgia and Slovakia: It would we wise to pay attention to Tbilisi demonstrations, and also cast an eye on Bratislava after the assassination attempt of Prime Minister Fico. Russia is certainly paying attention.

9. Superconductivity: Origin Quantum Computing Technology of China is making solid advancements and has announced they are ready to domestically produce a 72 qubit capable microwave module known as ‘Origin Wukong’. The battle to create efficient quantum components and operating systems between China, the U.S and others is real.

8. Secretary of Music: Anthony Blinken’s naive decision to play guitar in a Kiev nightclub this week is comparable to Nero playing music while Rome burned. U.S foreign policy continues to raise concerned eyebrows from friends and foes alike.

7. South African Election: The coming vote on the 29th of May is less than two weeks away. USD/ZAR as of this writing is near 18.22000, where will it be on the 30th of May?

6. Biden and Trump: The potential for debates between the two presidential candidates is growing. One question observers may be wondering is if there is adequate supply of caffeine to keep Joe energetic and ample enough hairspray for Donald to look under control?

5. GameStop: Yet another market manipulation of GME is causing massive losses for day traders. The price for the stock finished near $27.67 yesterday, this after touching a high above $56.00 on the 14th of May. GME was close to $10.00 on the 15th of April. Buyers that get in too late to these betting schemes created by frenzied crowds tend to go bust as the early manipulators cash out their profits.

4. Commodities: Cocoa is near 7560.0 USD per metric ton, and Coffee Arabica is traversing slightly below 200.00 USD. Speculative forces remain powerful in both and while they are likely still overpriced, risk management is imperative for those pursuing lower values.

3. Federal Reserve: After the weaker than anticipated CPI numbers printed this Wednesday, and last week’s eroding GDP growth statistics, financial institutions are increasing their risk appetite as they watch U.S Treasury yields decline and consider a mid-term outlook which is allowing for the contemplation of actual Federal Funds Rate cuts.

2. Forex: The EUR/USD is back above the 1.08000 level comfortably, and the GBP/USD has found sustainable trading beyond the 1.26000 ratio. While the major currencies versus the USD have pulled back slightly from near-term highs, large commercial traders are exhibiting risk appetite. A weaker USD centric notion is coming into vogue again.

1. Apex Equities: The three major U.S indices are all near record territories as solid earnings reports from corporations, amidst hopes the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates a couple of times this year has combined to allow optimism to grow in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100. While the U.S public is starting to show they are losing confidence because of escalating consumer prices, financial institutions are wagering on solid returns via economic outlooks. Day traders looking to join the indices parade should make sure they limit their exposure, particularly if they are using CFDs and relying on short-term climbs which can suffer from sudden reversals lower.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

by with No Comment AI & Machine LearningAMT MarketsFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Tastings for the 10th of May 2024

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10. Word of the day: Ultracrepidarian is a person who speaks assertively about subjects that are beyond their level of knowledge. The world is full of many suspects ladies and gentlemen.

9. Steve Albini: The musician and production sound engineer passed away earlier this week in Chicago. Albini was a pioneer and leader in ‘alternative’ music and battled homogenized corporate music for nearly 40 years. Nirvana, Fugazi, Jimmy Page, the Pixies, P.J Harvey are some of the many that worked with Albini.

8. Bitcoin: BTC/USD continues to hover around the 63,000.00 realm per a three month technical chart perspective. Bitcoin’s higher values via one year results are being maintained. BNB/USD is lurking near 600.00 per a three month glance.

7. Commodities: Cocoa and Coffee prices remain elevated. After touching a low around the 7,250.00 USD mark last week per metric ton, Cocoa is now within sight of 9,000.00 USD again. Retail speculators who like to wager via CFDs on commodities need to remember their bets have no influence on the markets, which are in complete control by the largest players in the commodities sector.

6. Wayve Technologies: A U.K based company specializing in autonomous driving software has announced they have raised more than 1 billion USD in investments recently via the likes of Softbank, Nvidia and Microsoft. The U.K government has highlighted Wayve, proclaiming it shows Britain will be a major force in AI development. Wayve was established in 2017 and is still a privately held company.

5. U.S Foreign Policy: Election concerns appear to be a prime motivator for the U.S executive branch as its attempts to walk a fine line regarding diplomacy and saber-rattling in the Middle East. Polling from a variety of sources indicate Joe Biden is in jeopardy of not being reelected.

4. USD/CNY: China will release its Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers early on Saturday. The USD/CNY is trading around the 7.2245 mark as of this writing. Some analysts have expressed concerns about the China Yuan weakening via attempts by the Chinese government to boost exports. The USD/CNY certainly remains within the higher elements of its range, but is below marks seen in early September 2023 which were around the 7.3425 ratio.

3. Data Warning: While day traders may be inclined to look at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading today, they should remember to pay attention to the Inflation Expectations statistics. Last month’s inflation report produced a result of 3.2%, which delivered a solid dose of volatility to financial assets.

2. Forex: Behavioral sentiment appears to be leaning towards a weaker outlook for the USD as major currencies like the EUR, GBP (solid GDP numbers also helped this morning in Britain) and others have gained. However, its should be pointed out that the USD/JPY has seen an incremental climb since touching a low of nearly 151.880 last Friday. As of this writing the USD/JPY is around the 155.650 level.

1. Equity Indices: Bullish optimism has been seen in the S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq as all three major indices are ready to start the day near highs for the week. The burst of upwards momentum which started last Thursday, has ignited the major U.S indices within sight of their apex realms achieved in late March and early April.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCentral BanksEquities

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Picks for the 26th of April 2024

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10. Salk Institute: Work known as the Harnessing Plants Initiative is focused on optimizing the ability of plants to help combat climate change, sometimes via root systems in order to help reduce carbon dioxide. Problematically when plants die they do release carbon dioxide too. One key to the HPI project maybe altering the affects of Suberin. The Salk Institute received 50 million USD last year from the Hess Corporation to fight climate change.

9. Anticipation: Chicago is celebrating today after landing quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze as hoped. However, as the August 2024 Democratic National Convention approaches, trepidation for the potential of nasty demonstrations is building.

8. Quantum Investing: Oak Ridge National Laboratory has announced a successful test using the H1-1 computer via Quantinuum to study the spread of disease via quantum mathematical models. Honeywell International Inc. owns a large stake in Quantinuum which is a stand alone company valued at approximately 5 billion USD.

7. Speculative: Gold is near 2348.00, the price is below values seen last week, but remains high via some perspectives as the USD creates havoc.

6. Forex: Whipsaw volatility has been seen in foreign exchange as financial institutions fight to get a proper gauge on their mid-term outlooks. Equilibrium will continue to be fought over today.

5. Fixed Income: U.S Treasury yields are battling within higher ground as investors look for guaranteed returns as behavioral sentiment remains fragile. And there is a likelihood the next four days of trading will continue to produce a whirlwind.

4. Equities: Major U.S indices continue to grapple with headwinds caused by a murky economic outlook. Retail traders speculating via CFD’s should remain careful. Patience is a key for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow 30. Trying to ‘time’ the indices for short-term wagers is dangerous because technical trends are vulnerable.

3. Data: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index statistics will be released today, inflation via the GDP Price Index came in higher than expected yesterday. Forex will react to the PCE results which is anticipated to have a gain of 0.3%. Financial institutions do not need another scare today. The Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations reading should also be given attention which will be published afterwards.

2. BoJ: The Bank of Japan is clearly playing a game of truth or dare with Forex. Having held interest rates at merely 0.10% earlier today, the USD/JPY climbed comfortably above 156.000 and is presently near the 156.540. The BoJ will remain in the news as the USD/JPY trades around a 34 year high. As financial institutions clamor for a higher interest rate, the BoJ apparently is more concerned with creating dynamic export demand and growing Japan’s economy, believing it can keep inflation under control. Speculators need to be on alert for an intervention from the Bank of Japan, but cannot count on one either.

1. Analysis Paralysis: The Federal Reserve was served an intriguing dose of results via the lower than expected growth numbers from the Gross Domestic Product yesterday, while digesting a higher GDP Price Index. Jerome Powell has stressed caution and patience. However, yesterday’s stubborn inflation numbers with waning growth creates the prospect for stagflation. This is an important political year because of the upcoming U.S elections in November. Next Wednesday the Fed’s FOMC Meeting pronouncements will be made. There will not be a change to the Federal Funds Rate on the 1st of May. It is the FOMC Statement’s vocabulary which will get attention. Today’s inflation reports will play a role in next week’s Fed meeting. Day traders may want to tune out political noise from pundits today which will certainly be sounded. The inflation numbers globally are tricky, and have created overthinking by investors and central banks which remain mostly reactive.

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USD/INR and the 83.3000 Resistance Level is Not an Illusion

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

USD/INR and the 83.3000 Resistance Level is Not an Illusion

Traders of the USD/INR for those who remain short-term speculators of the currency pair, as opposed to financial institutions which position holdings for corporations and large investors, may be perplexed about values and momentum over the past three months. It is abundantly clear the USD/INR faces a rather strong force when it approaches the 83.3000 mark. Yes, sometimes the Forex pair has traversed above this level, but the moves have been momentary and have been pushed back.

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USD/INR Three Month Chart as of 8th of November 2023

It is not a conspiratorial thought to simply look at the three month chart of the USD/INR and see that when the 83.3000 level has come into play that selling pressure mounts. And it is not news the Reserve Bank of India is involved in the durability of this resistance level. Simply put the USD/INR doesn’t trade in a ‘free’ market manner, the constraints and persistence of the Reserve Bank of India to maintain a structured resistance value for the USD/INR is evident. The past month, and last five days of trading via technical charts shows the same dynamic. And it is important to point out the resistance level of 83.3000 has been sustained over the mid-term when global risk adverse trading has seen the USD gain strength against many other major currency pairs, meaning the USD/INR should have traded at higher levels.

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USD/INR Five Day Chart as of 8th of November 2023

The Indian government is managing the USD/INR with a philosophy which allows the currency pair to remain within its weaker elements regarding the Indian Rupee, but not allow it to lose too much value. And it must be pointed out that the USD/INR does show an ability to trade lower and the Reserve Bank of India doesn’t appear to mind if this happens. The 83.0000 was challenged from about the 20th to the 24th of October rather consistently and even traded at a low of 82.9300 very briefly.

As global risk conditions remain fragile the USD has shown an ability to remain strong against most major currency pairs, but risk appetite has picked up over the past handful of days. The 83.2000 to 83.2500 range of the USD/INR has been tested with momentary bursts lower. Last week’s U.S Federal Funds Rate was held in place as expected at 5.50%, and financial institutions are starting to believe the Fed has reached the end of its interest rate cycle which has seen consistent hikes. Yes, the U.S is likely to keep its higher interest rates in place over the mid-term, but U.S Treasuries yields are starting to show signs of an incremental decline. If U.S bonds start to decrease via their yields this will help soften the USD.

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Gold One Month Chart as of 8th November 2023

Gold has started to come of its highs, but still remains within an elevated range per its one month chart. If the precious metal continues to trade around its current values, this can be taken as a sign risk sentiment wants to shift. The key word is ‘wants’ and there are no guarantees. While financial institutions have shown the ability to digest the escalated concerns because of the Middle East crisis there is always the possibility developing news can escalate quickly. But will it?

Unfortunately, the media and pundits largely control the narrative that is given to the public. Most traders are not privy to the inner workings of the ‘temples’ in which governments work. The Reserve Bank of India doesn’t issue a statement every time it makes a move within the USD/INR. Nor do the governments of the world which may say one thing publicly and say something else behind closed doors.

Day traders want to be told what to do and how they should react. First off risk management is essential, entry orders are crucial so fills meet expectations. However, achieving the direction desired and wagered upon is a gamble. Take profit and stop losses orders are urged as protection.

If the Reserve Bank of India had not intervened in the USD/INR it is likely the currency pair would have reached the 84.0000 level and higher over the past three months. The question is if risks will decrease now that the U.S Federal Reserve seems prepared to potentially take a less aggressive stance. While it seems logical the USD/INR should have been trading at higher values, the control the government of India has practiced has kept the currency pair within a ‘safe place’ while risks were heightened.

If behavioral sentiment conditions start to turn more tranquil and risk appetite increases it is possible the USD/INR could actually continue to show some selling momentum. However, traders looking for declines in the USD/INR need to be conservative and they might want to wait for the currency pair to come within sight of resistance levels to wager on short and near-term movements lower. Overly ambitious selling is likely to remain an expensive mistake until the U.S equity markets show sustained buying and U.S Treasury yields are no longer threatening long-term highs. Until there is a legitimate shift in behavioral sentiment, looking for quick hitting changes of value in the USD/INR needs to remain the focus for day traders.