postR196

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Concerns for the 6th of October

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Concerns for the 6th of October

10. Ya Gotta Believe: The New York Mets are finding ways to score in the late innings. Having won with last minute runs against the Atlanta Braves in the 8th and 9th innings early last week to save their season, hitting a home run to take the lead against the Brewers in the deciding game of the Wild Card in the 9th, and last night’s 5 runs in the 8th to take the lead in Game One against the Phillies in the Division Series has been rather remarkable. Game two between the Mets and Philadelphia will be played later today.

9. Information Technology: OpenAI’s value is now estimated around 157 billion USD, this after their latest round of investments garnered that includes both Nvidia and Microsoft funding. The search engine arms race will continue to get tougher and more competitive, but recent data released by Statcounter shows that Google still has over 90% of the U.S search engine traffic. While it has lost some ground in the search engine battles to upstarts statistically, Google remains dominant. Microsoft has made inroads with Bing, and Yahoo has also gained, but Google’s stranglehold via browser usage remains strong.

8. Helene Meets Milton: A pair of hurricanes – this if Milton fulfills forecasts and becomes a major storm – are not helping create easy days in the U.S Southeast, nor for the Biden administration. Criticism regarding a lack of government help has been heard in the aftermath of Helene and with another potential punch about to be delivered by Milton, U.S relief agencies like FEMA will certainly be pushed to the limit organizationally.

7. Oil Alerts: WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend close to 75.00 USD per barrel as nervousness increased about the potential of an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure. While many nations in the West do not purchase Iranian Crude Oil openly, the Iranian commodity is sold to China at nearly an 89% ratio. This allows oil from other suppliers like Saudi Arabia, the U.S and Mexico to sell elsewhere and the price of Crude Oil to remain relatively tame. However, if the supply of Iranian Crude Oil were suddenly to be crippled for any length of time, the price of the commodity from the other major suppliers would certainly go higher if expanded demand needs to be met. Speculators should pay attention to strike prices in the energy sectors via options trading in the future markets to understand potential vulnerabilities that large players may be anticipating.

6. Precious Metal: Gold prices remain within sight of record values, but below the apex values seen on the 26th of September. Risk sentiment, speculative forces and long-term investors are seemingly creating resilient support levels. Gold went into this weekend near the 2,653.00 USD ratio. Silver remains near 32.00 USD per ounce, which is where its price was traversing in May. Speculators intent on betting that silver will rise because nervous market conditions will create more demand need to be careful. A vast supply of silver exists in known mines globally, and producers simply need to extract more of the commodity to garner profits which is relatively easy. In other words, gold and silver do not correlate as much as some people believe.

5. Forex Chaos: Day traders of USDJPY, NZDUSD, EURUSD and a slew of other major currency pairs were taken on a wild ride last week as USD centric strength surged and fragile conditions in global markets grew. The coming days will remain difficult for FX retail traders as they face a whirlwind of threats. Technical and fundamental traders are being hit by shifting winds generating via a myriad of worries. Speculators without deep pockets are advised to remain cautious in the coming days because trading dynamics are not likely to ease. Yes, there will be price velocity which allows for quick profits, but those who are willing to bet on the prospects of fantastic gains must also accept the dangerous proposition that wildly expensive losses if they are on the wrong side of a trade are equally possible. Brokers will certainly welcome their clients with open arms this coming week because the volatility may entice many with the potential of getting rich. However, brokers will not tell you about the poor house on the other side of the street.

4. Unscripted: There are a little more than four weeks before the 2024 U.S elections on the 5th of November. Trump appears to be gaining momentum in polls, but certainly remains vulnerable per his ability to speak without a script and create verbal firestorms. Kamala Harris ran into problems recently with a suspected malfunctioning teleprompter and her inability to escape repeating the words ’32 days’. While the two candidates battle for voter supremacy, questions persists about the current leadership from the White House and who exactly is running the show.

3. Noisy Data: The Federal Reserve and economic data remain concerns. This Thursday the Consumer Price Index data will be released. If the inflation statistics can come in below expectations this may soothe financial institutions who have leaned into the notion the Fed needs to remain aggressive in November. Another interest rate has been expected, but some are nervous the Fed may not be able to cut as fully as wished. However, day traders need to also understand politics are playing a role in the bombastic soundbites being generated by the media, this as they try to deliver messaging which reflect their viewpoints. If inflation numbers remain under control the mid-term outlook continues to point towards more interest rate cuts. While the U.S jobs numbers on Friday were better than expected it should be noted revisions downward were seen again. There is one more Non-Farm Employment Change report before the election, by then it will probably not have an impact on potential voters, but its affect on the Fed will certainly be felt.

2. End Game: As the Iranian and Israel conflict escalates and threatens to become a dark spiral, some are still hoping for an avenue which will allow normality to return. That appears to be wishful thinking for the moment. Reports, perhaps paranoid, regarding an earthquake in Iran yesterday with a magnitude 4.5 seismic rating which was 48 kilometers from Semnan was noted by the USGS. The reason why it is potentially scary notion is because some are questioning if this was a nuclear test being conducted by Iran.

1. Risk Adverse: A trifecta of nervous behavioral sentiment is shadowing the financial markets via Fed outlook, Middle East tensions, and the approaching U.S election. Unfortunately none of these components are likely to disappear soon and in fact may grow in stature as outlooks potentially create more anxiousness. Safe havens in the USD, gold and U.S Treasuries may find they deliver some calm for those that are nervous. However, it must be noted that U.S equity indices gained nicely late last week after gains on Friday. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 remain near apexes and the Nasdaq Composite is within sight of highs. In other words, for all the talk about dark days, financial markets and investors are still active.

postR179

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

10. Word of the Day: Like crepuscular animals which are active during twilight, large market players are ruminating as their summer hiatus draws to an end over the next week and a half. Plans for coming hunts are being formulated as leisure concludes for financial institutions preparing to work in the shadows.

9. Scrolling Failures: Lack of solid results on search engines are becoming a growing annoyance. Is it just us? An abundance of poor information via defined searches on the internet and finding what is sought is becoming increasingly problematic. Is AI being allowed to do too much while still too dumb? AI doesn’t know when it is wrong. Competitors to Google and others are sought.

8. How Dare Us: The postponement of imposed dates regarding energy policy changes are multiplying. The end for the classical use of oil, coal and nuclear is not near. Efficient power is evolving, but this will have to include ‘antique’ generation and grids. The demand for electric vehicles are being confronted with declining sales via U.S consumers. Tangible technology needs precise planning, not apocalyptic rhetoric which tries to scare people.

7. Middle East Calm: The storm is being limited within a tea cup for the moment. The potential for a dangerous boiling painful mess still exists. ‘Serenity now’ remains a mantra for those who need to pay attention as chagrin and anxiousness mix.

6. Fed Retreat: The FOMC Meeting Minutes released this week showed some Fed members remained cautious, while others banged the drum louder regarding interest rate cuts. However, a Fed Funds Rate reduction is almost a 100% certainty for the 18th of September. The question now is what the Fed will do in November. Fed Chairman Powell and a slew of other renowned global central bankers will speak today and tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Financial institutions largely believe they know what is going to be said, but comments from Bank of Japan and Brazilian leadership could prove to be informative and entertaining for central bank nerds. Monday could be volatile for USD/BRL traders.

5. VIX: The CBOE’s Volatility Index climbed to the 56 vicinity on the 5th of August as panic grew via widespread overreactions to hyperbole ripping through the markets. The fear gauge is near the 17.55 ratio as of this writing. Market calm has resumed across the board as financial institutions and day traders have been able to achieve a pleasant tone again. Traders who use the VIX as a template regarding the potential of risks suddenly cascading into assets should keep their eyes on the index, which went to a low around the 14.45 mark on Monday. Yet, the slight incremental climb the past few days could be coming from folks still speculating on volatility which may not develop near-term.

4. Barometers: Gold is lingering slightly below 2,500.00 for the moment, this after having achieved a record high on Tuesday when it touched the 2532.00 apex. WTI Crude Oil is near 74.00 USD per barrel and is maintaining a polite value range. Speculatively, Cocoa is again above 9,000 USD per ton and Bitcoin has fought its way above 61,000 this morning. Risk appetite remains stable for the moment.

3. Forex: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, even the USD/ZAR have been able to hold onto their recent trends as USD centric weakness remains viable. Traders who were looking for huge moves in FX this week have likely been disappointed. Retail speculators need to understand financial institutions have been positioning for a weaker USD since the tail end of July. Market players may be quite pleased regarding current Forex equilibrium, which may allow technical traders the ability to take advantage of existing behavioral sentiment, this as reversals flourish and the next big wave of impetus is awaited. Next Thursday’s U.S Preliminary GDP numbers may deliver some noise.

2. Cassandras: Market experts who proclaimed a long-term stock market crash in early August have crawled back into their caves to take cover and percolate their next fear mongering tactics. This after the latest round of predicted catastrophes have vanished. While the major U.S stock indices are not at record highs, they have recovered plenty of lost ground and appear ready for more days in the sun.

1. Political Winds: The curtain closed on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last night without a serious hiccup. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now enter a crucial phase of campaigning, and will get plenty of attention as they go into attack mode. The next big event for Harris and Trump will be their televised debate on the 10th of September. Will the outcome prove to be a devastating storm for one of the candidates?

post197

Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

Iran Front and Center: 60 Tons of Explosives Sent Towards Israel

The Israel-Iran War is soon to enter its 7th month even though last night was the first face to face confrontation between the two countries.

There was much less panic in the air on the “Israeli street” than one would expect after Iranian threats over the last week. I was clearly wrong in my assessment that Iran would not want to start something big with Israel and risk having a chunk of their strategic power degraded but it is hard predicting what fanatics will do. The question is if the utter failure of the attack will bring Iran shame in the Muslim world or if the fact that they sent missiles and drones will be counted as a “victory” even if no damage was done to Israel. Or it could be that Iran was counting on Biden-Blinken holding back Israel from responding and sure enough, NBC is reporting exactly that:

President Joe Biden has privately expressed concern that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict, according to three people familiar with his comments.

Last night at about 8:15pm IDF Homefront Command announced that all schools and all educational activity would be cancelled until further notice, angering parents everywhere. A few minutes later they announced that 10’s or hundreds of drones were launched from Iran and on their way to Israel. The news reported that it would take 8-10 hours to arrive, sparking this to make its round on the Whatsapp groups in this very interconnected country:

Google maps also cooperated:

Friends and family in Jerusalem and surrounding areas were awakened by alarms and scurried to the bomb shelters, children in their arms. There were alarms also in the West Bank, the Golan Heights and the Northern Negev dessert. Apparently, the main targets were two air force bases. One was hit by one missile and minor damage was done and the other was untouched. One 7 year old Bedouin girl was critically injured from pieces of a rocket that was shot down. The headline ought to read: Shiite Missile Critically Injures 7 year old Sunni Girl. 

The effectiveness of Israel’s air defense system seems to have surprised even the Israeli Air Force and special thanks has to be given to President Ronald Reagan for ignoring the comics and media (but I repeat myself) and many scientists and engineers (the experts!) as they made fun of his Strategic Defense Initiative and called it “Star Wars” – claiming that it was something undo-able and dangerous even to talk about.

Then Senator Joe Biden, using his favorite word, “provoke”, is quoted in this 1985 NY Times article:

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, pressed hard for reassurance about whether the proposed defensive weapons might be fired by mistake, thus provoking the Soviet Union to launch a real attack.
 

The Biden foreign policy theory for the last 40 years or more is based on not “provoking” your enemy, no matter the cost and appeasing your enemy at any cost.

Special thanks to the U.S armed forces who shot down numerous drones as did the U.K’s air force as well as Jordan’s. There might have been other Middle Eastern countries involved as there is an unofficial regional air defense system set up with Abraham Accord countries and others not part of the Accords. 100% of the suicide drones and 100% of the cruise missiles and 92% of the ballistic missiles were shot down by Israel’s layered “star wars” system. 

If the IRG is honest with themselves, they will understand that they have been defeated. A combination of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were shot at Israel at once and no drones and no cruise missiles got through. Of the 110 ballistic missiles shot at Israel, 101 were intercepted and only one reached its target. Israeli defense firms closed higher in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange trading today. I imagine Iran’s potential clients are having second thoughts. China too, must be wondering about their own offensive and defensive systems.  

So where does this leave us now?

The War Cabinet assigned to Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Gallant needs to decide on an Israeli response. I am not sure that Israel has the firepower to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites on its own and there is almost no chance we will see U.S B52’s involved.

So the most obvious target is probably off the table.  It seems that the U.S Administration is pressuring Israel not to respond at all and to leave things as they are. This should not surprise anyone who has been awake for the last six months.

Israel and Iran have been at war for the last 6 months – one could say for the last two decades. This was clear to everyone except Biden-Blinken who could have shortened the war and the suffering by punishing Iran for their attacks on US sailors and soldiers.  Instead, they appeased Iran and released $10 billion to them essentially letting Iran hit Israel with this money.   

 The Scroll is reporting that:

We are now waiting to see how Israel responds. Although an unnamed “senior Israeli official” has been quoted promising a “significant response” to the attacks, Iran appears to have pre-cleared the attacks with the United States via the Oman diplomatic backchannel. And according to Roi Kais of Israel’s Kan News, a U.S. official told Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya on Friday, “the United States will take part in the response to the Iranian response if Tehran escalates the situation inappropriately”—which means that the United States tacitly approved an appropriate level of Iranian escalation, such as, we don’t know, a “symbolic” drone-and-missile attack.

The United States has also, as Barack Ravid reported Friday, demanded to “have a say before decisions are made about any retaliation by Israel.”

If true, that is cynicism taken to the ‘Nth degree’. True enough, the United States needs to watch after its own national interests, but is it possible that the U.S government considers Iran its equal and Israel its vassal? Were Israel faced with a missile attack from China an argument could be made that U.S interests take precedence over Israel’s – but Iran? The Iranian economy is in shambles, the Rial is at record lows, its only economic lifeline comes from China, bankrupt Russia, the $10 billion Biden gave them and illegal activities. As Israel just showed– Iran’s vaunted missile force is worth less than advertised. We have not even spoken about the way it treats women and gays and how it treats opponents to its theocracy, how it spreads terror throughout the Middle East and Africa, how it helps Russia destroy Ukraine, how it is a key player in the global drug trade and money laundering.  

We have also not spoken about its foothold in the Western hemisphere and its attempts to infiltrate the United States itself via the porous southern border. 

Worst of all, if the Scroll story is correct, it shows how Biden-Blinken don’t understand what the office of the Presidency of the United States is. It is not just another head of state or head of government, but rather the President’s warnings ought always to be backed up with actions. Biden’s “Don’t Speech 2.0” was laughed at by Iran in public, for all to see. And the Biden-Blinken response is to tell Israel, “don’t”.

Ignoring Biden-Blinken for the moment, Israel must think deeply about its response. It is clear that any response will be followed by more of the same from Iran. Israel must think a few moves ahead and not just attack for the sake of attacking or it will be in the middle of yet another war of attrition. The end of the multiple rounds of attacks must leave Israel in better strategic shape than it is now and must leave Iran substantially weaker.

Whatever Israel decides to do, it must degrade Iran’s military capability by destroying its weapons and bases and killing as many IRG officers as possible. Israel should not bomb the power stations in Tehran or do other non-military strikes. Air force bases, missile silos and Iran’s navy should be targeted in such a way that degrades capabilities. They could start by sinking the Iranian spy ship that is helping the Houthis in the Red Sea.

Israelis seem to think that by “allowing” Iran to attack them it gives them many diplomatic credits, but we already know that these “credits” do not last long.  Whatever Israel does, it ought not to play the “message” game. Its attacks ought to provide tactical advantages in the coming months and not just “warnings to Iran” and “messages to Hezbollah”.

But let’s not ignore Biden-Blinken for a moment.  What if they decide to threaten Israel that if Israel retaliates the US will sit on their hands? 

This would be the time for Israel to do a little threatening of itself. The worst thing for a sitting President running for re-election is a summer gasoline price spike. Israel could certainly threaten to destroy Iran’s oil facilities and help push the price of oil. High gallon gasoline prices this summer will lose Biden more votes than he can gain in Dearborn, Michigan. In exchange for leaving Iran untouched, Israel can demand a free hand in Gaza, including Rafah as well as in Lebanon.  

Would that be worth letting Iran off the hook? It might. Iran was defeated in this battle, but it still believes it will win the war. Giving Israel free reign to destroy Hamas and then Hezbollah means that Iran will lose the war, too. Without Hezbollah, Iran will lose its most important asset in its overall goal of destroying Israel, chasing the US from the Middle East and establishing Shiite dominance in the region. It would turn October 7th into the day that Iran started on its road to defeat.

Israel needs to be opportunistic and aggressive in its dealings with its allies and its enemies. It has to let its allies know that it too is playing the long game and that it will not only hurt those who hurt it – as Netanyahu loves saying – but that it will destroy all who even try to harm it.

More importantly it needs to show its enemies with actions and not with words that threatening Israel means you will be destroyed. 

The Biden-Blinken team must be told in no uncertain terms that Israel is not a vassal.  The end result of this war cannot only be the destruction of Hamas, it must also be the destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regional power. By sending over nearly 60 tons of explosives to Israel, they have put themselves front and center.

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this opinion article are solely those of the author, and not necessarily the opinions reflected by angrymetatraders.com or its associated parties.

You can follow Ira Slomowitz via The Angry Demagogue on Substack https://iraslomowitz.substack.com/ 

postN87

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Insights for the 9th of February

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Insights for the 9th of February

10. Super Bowl AMT Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 27 – San Francisco 49ers 24. After winning the MVP Travis Kelce will hug Taylor Swift and announce his retirement.

9. Jazz Fusion: Please listen to the song School Days played by Stanley Clarke while delivering a supreme bass guitar riff.

8. Tech: Google has announced its Bard A.I will now be known as Gemini in a rebranding. ‘Bard’ was a rather poor name, but is Gemini much better? Let’s ask Gemini what it thinks about the Google marketing team.

7. Banking Animal Kingdom: Central Banks parroting the same rhetoric globally as they choose to be ‘prey’ instead of ‘predators’, driving financial institutions and traders batty in Forex.

6. Crypto: The NBA is being sued by investors in a Class Action Complaint in conjunction with 4.2 billion USD in losses, because of alleged fraudulent actions by Voyager Digital Holdings, claiming the NBA bears responsibility for negligent marketing via the Dallas Mavericks. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.661881/gov.uscourts.flsd.661881.1.0.pdf

5. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG: A large slump in bond values for the German bank has sparked additional fears of exposure for banks involved with the commercial real estate sector. CRE appraisals remain unrealistically high in many European and North American cities as lending risks climb.

4. Cocoa: The price for the commodity was 4055.00 USD per metric ton on the 8th of January, as of yesterday it was 5666.00, a rise in cost of 39.72% in a month. Our sweet tooth just got more expensive.

3. Data: Yesterday’s Weekly Unemployment Claims showed negative revisions upwards from the previous two weeks; another ‘hidden’ piece of data not being fully considered by traders, perhaps like the Non Farm Employment Change data last week reporting declining workweek hours.
https://www.angrymetatraders.com/post/usd-hidden-jobs-data-shows-potentially-intriguing-weakness

2. China Economy: Deflation continues to be reported via the CPI and PPI statistics. Also, value of properties for housing and commercial real estate face significant headwinds. The real estate sector including ancillary infrastructure is at least 21% of China’s total GDP.

1. Risk Appetite: U.S equity indices finished Thursday’s trading achieving apex highs. The S&P 500 is challenging the 5000.00 level. Gold is near 2033.00 USD and WTI Crude Oil is above 76.00 USD as of this writing.

postN32

Profits: Business Ethics in an Age of Subjective Expediency

Profits: Business Ethics in an Age of Subjective Expediency

This article was originally written in the summer of 2006, Jeremy Blatch suggests current business governance remains shadowed by the same concerns.

Most of us in business today, be we entrepreneurs, professionals or key employees, recognize that our customers, clients and staff require us to act in their best interests and that our actions should reflect this.

A code of practice or some kind of ethical standard or guideline will be needed to ensure some degree of accountability and consistency. In this we encounter the first hurdle, as the degree to which corporate and governmental governance is superimposed by regulatory bodies on business, varies between industries, businesses, professional sectors and political divides.

The effectiveness to which this is policed in reality depends on the will of those in supervision, and the willingness of those in business to conform to requirements. Many areas are of course not covered by statutory regulation and getting on with the daily running of a business requires constant decisions which often involve a degree of ethical consideration. In reality any ethical stance is at best subjective and open to subversion and expediency in the quest for profitability, which after all is the main reason for being in business in the first place.

Service providers that fail to make a profit irrespective of the quality of service that they offer will inevitably cease to be able to provide that service. But at what cost do we surrender integrity for the expediency of justifying a decision on the grounds of corporate strategy or profitability. And at what point does adopting a rigid ethical stance become a statement of moral judgment? Moralizing about the world and the problems faced by modern society has never been wise. Morality is also a subjective term, often influenced by personal experience and strongly held beliefs, but not necessarily shared.

When some of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs met recently in Monaco at the invitation of the BBC World Service and the international accountants, Ernst Young, to debate how to ‘feed the starving and save the planet’, there was broad agreement that amongst most people there is a distrust of corporate motives and skepticism of Corporate Social Responsibility, currently a trendy buzz word amongst the business elite.

Is not the sole responsibility of companies to make money, but at what costs? Does it really matter how they make money, after all is a woman with a starving child going to refuse a plate of food because it has been purchased with money from the sale of narcotics? If we have a view against investing in armaments, are we prepared therefore to open our borders to anyone who wishes to attack us for any reason, or do we wish for a society in which the strongest take all and those with weapons will be strongest?

Someone receiving a pension has strong views on the tobacco or gambling or arms production or certain drugs, and whilst they are quite happy to receive the pension income and rejoice at the level of payment, are they also prepared to self-select how the investment is managed? Business is fraught with hypocrisy in this area.

Google have weakened their ethical case by caving in to the demands of China for expediency. Brands like Nike and Gap are having their reputations challenged by allegations of sweat shop labor despite spending millions on marketing a different image. Yet people still keep buying their trendy brands. Walmart the most successful US retailer attracts more shoppers than any other store despite allegations of a poor record of employee relations. Does anyone care? Shoppers go where they can find the best quality at the keenest price.

One can make a difference in society without trying to gain the ethical high ground or slipping into moral judgment by simply giving away something you don’t need, to those who most need it. We have witnessed this last week two instances of philanthropist ‘walking the walk’ not just ‘talking the talk’ with Warren Buffet, one of the most successful investors of this century, donating much of his personal wealth to the Bill and Melina Gates Family Foundation. This injection of cash now gives the Gates Foundation around USD 30 billion, more than three times the total amount of charitable donations in the U.K, putting them with Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and John D Rockefeller, as the hitherto best known philanthropists of modern times.

A few days after the very public announcement of Warren Buffet’s donation, a U.K hedge fund has emerged as one of the U.K’s most generous philanthropists with a donation of around GBP 50m to charity assisting children in poverty. The Investors Forum, registered in Gibraltar, was created to give a highly professional service to investors covering the wider investment process. It comprises of an association of firms and banks committed to acting professionally, whilst giving something back to those most in need.

A unique investment concept called the “Solidarity Fund” will hopefully be launched from Gibraltar, which will give both corporate and individual investors the opportunity to make money whilst directly helping those in need. In today’s business world making a profit is essential for survival, but how we make it and what we do with it will determine what sort of people we are, and ultimately what legacy we will leave behind.

Jeremy Blatch is the Founder and Consultant of Ein Harod Family Office. You can find more of his articles at www.ehh.gi