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Trading Optimism for 2024 and Pursuit of Castles in the Air

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Trading Optimism for 2024 and Pursuit of Castles in the Air

Traders may feel like horses being kept in their stables right now. The desire to run freely in Forex and other markets is certainly being felt, this as many analysts have jumped onto optimistic bandwagons and are pointing to the U.S Federal Reserve and its rather dovish outlook for 2024. Gold in early trading this morning is lingering near highs and the USD remains within weaker territory when technical charts are inspected via one month results.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 2nd January 2024

Yet, thin holiday trading is full in effect. Light volumes will continue to be seen early this week after the New Year’s celebrations. Financial institutions will open their doors today, but their corporate clients around the world will have plenty of employees who will remain on vacation until the 8th of January. Thus, while day traders may feel enticed to wager in the markets with various CFDs, they should be careful and understand unbalanced positions may cause temporary chaos. Risk taking tactics should be carefully considered.

The desire to dream about castles in the air is a source of comfort for many new day traders. But remaining realistic about potential results, while not getting overly ambitious about targets is an important aspect for all speculators. While trends may look attractive in Forex, commodities and equities a well planned approach regarding risk taking is a practical road. Castles in the air tend to vanish.

Optimism will be a word frequently heard in the coming days and weeks, and here’s to wishing everyone a prosperous and peaceful 2024. The potential of a more dovish U.S Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and declining Treasury yields sparking more risk appetite in equities as investors seek solid returns is alluring, however risks remain on the table. The economy of China continues to worry analysts and tensions in the Middle East are still a long way from being solved.

However, the biggest cause for speculative concerns during 2024 may come from elections in Taiwan, India, South Africa and the United States. Taiwan’s presidential vote is on the 13th of January. China will certainly be watching the results, and traders should expect to hear swords rattling afterwards and then hope the noise calms down.

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USD/ZAR One Year Chart as of 2nd January 2024

Tranquil voting results in India will be welcomed by investors. India is becoming a noteworthy economic giant, its rapid growth and ascension as an important investment vehicle needs to remain stable. South Africa remains troubled domestically by concerns regarding corruption and inefficiency, its upcoming spring election results may not solve the problems it faces. There will be many elections in Africa this year, which could spur on considerations regarding geopolitical alliances and the price of commodities.

The U.S election late in 2024 will start to grow in noise as the months progress and by early this summer behavioral sentiment will begin to become nervous regarding the outcomes for the White House and Congress. The U.S appears to be braced for an election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and this will certainly cause skittish storms.

Traders should feel confident about risk appetite in the global markets improving, but they should keep in mind that impetus coming from many different spheres can affect the financial world.

Tuesday, 2nd of January, U.S Final Manufacturing PMI – today’s Purchasing Managers Index is expected to show a slight improvement, but the results may fall on deaf ears because many market participants will not be around to react due to the fact they are still on vacation.

Wednesday, 3rd of January, U.S ISM Manufacturing Prices – this inflation survey from purchasing managers may be given a bit of attention, but its effect may be limited because of light trading volumes still being exhibited.

Thursday, 4th of January, Germany Preliminary CPI – the inflation data from Germany will get some consideration, and the result is expected to show a slight increase. Services PMI data will also come from European Union nations, the U.K and U.S.

Friday, 5th of January, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – the jobs reports will get the notice of financial institutions. The results for employment and wages are expected to be slightly weaker than the previous month’s outcomes. Typically these numbers would cause a stir, but unless there are surprises, most financial institutions may not react massively to the reports because it remains a ‘holiday’ week. If the numbers come in weaker than expected this could cause interesting reactions on the 8th of January and weaker USD sentiment.

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Federal Reserve Bank Decision and FOMC Statement Wednesday

by with No Comment Central BanksEconomic CalendarFeatured Highlights

Federal Reserve Bank Decision and FOMC Statement Wednesday

Monday, 24th July 2023, E.U Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – a slew of Purchasing Managers Index readings will come from European Union nations including Germany and France. Projected outcomes are expected to show slight improvement in the Services readings and mixed results from the Manufacturing sector. The EUR/USD may get a momentary nudge from the published numbers.

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EUR/USD 3 Month Chart as of 23rd July 2023

Monday, 24th July 2023, U.K Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the British economic reports are anticipated to come in below last month’s readings. The U.K did report slightly better Retail Sales numbers last week, but a Consumer Confidence outcome was weaker than expected. The GBP/USD might react briefly to the U.K PMI data.

Monday, 24th July 2023, U.S Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI – the reports from the States are forecast to be below last month’s numbers. U.S data produced nervous and weaker economic insights last week from the Housing sector. The Federal Reserve will certainly give some attention to the PMI data as they try to gauge the strength of the U.S economy while likely preparing to hike the Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday. The PMI statistics could factor into the Fed’s outlook, which is the crucial ingredient that financial institutions want to understand and still have skepticism about while considering the Federal Reserve’s potential actions later this week.

Tuesday, 25th of July 2023, Germany ifo Business Climate – the results are expected to be slightly weaker than last month, showing businesses in Germany are not optimistic about current conditions and outlooks.

Tuesday, 25th of July 2023, U.S CB Consumer Confidence – the report is anticipated to show U.S consumers are feeling more confident about their spending habits. If this report is stronger than expected, it could be one final clue before the U.S Federal Reserve springs into action the next day.

Wednesday, 26th of July 2023, U.S Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement – most financial institutions are prepared for a hike of 0.25%, which would bring the key borrowing cost to 5.50%. This number has been anticipated for a handful of weeks and any deviation would cause volatility. Forex has largely priced in the rate hike. Speculators need to pay attention to the FOMC Statement regarding outlook regarding comments on inflation, growth and what the Fed is prepared to do moving forward.

Because U.S inflationary price pressures showed a decrease recently, many financial institutions are likely betting on a slightly more optimistic sounding FOMC Statement. The question is if the Federal Reserve will risk sounding dovish, or continue to voice disciplined rhetoric about its ability fight inflation as needed and keep a middle ground. For all the criticism of the U.S Federal Reserve if it can raise interest rates without causing a credit crunch on mid and small sized banks the remainder of the summer, that would be a victory – particularly if it is perceived the U.S central bank will not raise hike the Federal Funds Rate the remainder of the year. However, that remains to be seen.

Thursday, 27th of July, E.U European Central Bank’s Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – the ECB is expected raise their key lending rate by 0.25% and back up their recent ‘tough’ and heightened rhetoric regarding inflation. Again, day traders should understand the interest rate hike to 4.25% has been anticipated and largely digested into Forex. The question is the ‘voiced’ concern from the ECB within its Monetary Policy Statement. Financial institutions will react to the ECB Press Conference led by Christine Legarde, which comes about half an hour after the release of the Monetary Policy Statement.

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USD/JPY 3 Month Chart as of 23rd July 2023

Friday, 28th of July, Japan BoJ Policy Rate and Outlook Report – the Bank of Japan is the one global central bank that marches to its owner drummer and this will not change in the near-term. The BoJ is expected to keep its policies of low interest rates in place, voice concern about inflation and likely say their ‘boat’ remains steady on the water. The USD/JPY will have reacted before to the rhetoric from the Federal Reserve in the middle of the week. Yes, the USD/JPY could see a flourish of volatility on Friday, but most of it will have likely been seen already on Wednesday and early Thursday.

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Week Ahead: Summer Begins with Questions Lurking for Traders

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Week Ahead: Summer Begins with Questions Lurking for Traders

Monday, the 19th of June, China Foreign Direct Investment – data from China has been lackluster and last week’s announcement of a stimulus program from the government underscores economic concerns regarding growth.

Monday, the 19th of June, U.S banking holiday – for commemoration of Juneteenth.

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AUD/USD Three Month Chart as of 18th June 2023

Tuesday, the 20th of June, Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – report from the Reserve Bank of Australia will interest AUD traders and those with an interest in Asian Pacific economics.

Tuesday, the 20th of June, U.S FOMC member John Willliams – as the President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, is a key member regarding policy. Taking into consideration last week’s pause, traders may want to pay attention to the New York Fed Presidents’s remarks to see if the pause in Federal Funds Rates seen last week is looked upon as a halt or a ‘skip’ by Williams. The difference between a pause and a skip may appear to be semantics, but a skip would mean an interest rate hike is coming in July. Williams is not going to say what is going to happen at the next Federal Reserve meeting, but he may give a hint regarding his opinion on what should be done.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 18th June 2023

Wednesday, the 21st of June, U.K Consumer Price Index – the data will be important regarding inflation insights for Britain. The Bank of England is expected to raise their Official Bank Rate on Thursday by 0.25%. Another report showing stubborn inflation could set the table for a rather hawkish Monetary Policy Statement from the BoE.

Wednesday, the 21st of June, U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testimony – the Fed Chairman will begin two days of speaking and taking questions. The first day will be before the House of Representatives and the second day in front of the Senate. Because a major election is coming in the U.S in 2024, this will be an opportunity for politicians from both sides of the aisle to get airtime and take a ‘stance’ while bludgeoning Jerome Powell. The Fed Chairman’s remarks could stir the markets slightly, but Powell will be as careful as possible not to put a scare into the financial sector.

Thursday, the 22nd of June, U.K Bank of England – the Official Bank Rate, Monetary Policy Summary and vote count from the Monetary Policy Committee will be released. A hike has been widely expected by GBP traders and has been factored into the British Pound already.

Thursday, the 22nd of June, U.S Existing Home Sales – the housing report will cause a few murmurs in the marketplace because it is seen as an extension of consumer health and interest rate policy in the U.S regarding behavioral sentiment. Existing home sales numbers have been dropping as people with homes have decided to stay put in their current residences. ‘Locked in’ interest rates are more attractive, instead of taking on a higher rate via a new purchase due to costlier mortgages because of more expensive borrowing fees.

Friday, the 23rd of June, E.U Manufacturing and Services PMI – the flash reports from the likes of Germany, France and the U.K should be watched. Manufacturing readings have been producing recessionary readings while Services data is expected to show incremental decreases too.

Friday, the 23rd of June, U.S Manufacturing and Services PMI – the flash reports via the Purchasing Managers Index data need to be monitored too from the States. The readings give a rather good insight regarding outlook of U.S business sentiment.

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Is the USD Bullish Surge Coming to an End?

by with No Comment BasketballCultureNBA

Is the USD Bullish Surge Coming to an End?

The long and brutal bullish trend the USD has exhibited against many other currencies could be coming to an end, as behavioral sentiment begins to suspect the U.S Federal Reserve will have to consider halting its interest rates hikes sooner rather than later.

PMI and Consumer Confidence statistics from the United States on Monday and Tuesday has heightened the perception that the U.S is within a recessionary cycle which the U.S Federal Reserve will have to act upon – by not acting. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates in November per their hawkish rhetoric, but the notion that the U.S central bank will then sit back consider the statistical landscape is growing. In other words a halt of hawkish policy appears to be a legitimate prospect after November.

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GBP/USD 1 Year Chart

If recessionary data continues to be exhibited in the U.S, the USD fundamentally could lessen its grip in Forex and allow other currencies begin to gain ground. The GBP/USD has been hit extremely hard – yes, this has had just as much to do with the political environment in the U.K which has resembled a three ring circus. The idea of tranquility within the U.K politically could help the GBP/USD move higher, the prospect of a less hawkish U.S Federal Reserve should help the British Pound also.

The EUR and JPY also may have the ability to gain within the EUR/USD and and USD/JPY as financial institutions begin to change their outlooks. Yes, the walls could crumble unexpectedly and another round of chaos could ensue which could cause a shockwave in Forex. However, if the U.S enters a recession which has to be officially recognized by the government and thus the Federal Reserve, the USD will be affected.

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EUR/USD 1 Year Chart

This is not written to suggest a weaker USD will bring upon a great fix for the ailing global economic outlook mid-term. But it is certain that a weaker USD which trends in a bearish manner may be rather interesting to retail traders looking to gain an edge via Forex speculation. Equity indices may continue to struggle if corporations report weaker than expected earnings, but the downward trajectory in many stocks also means that PE ratios are becoming more realistic and a potential buying opportunity for long term investors. Warren Buffett can be your imaginary friend.

It has been a dynamic year of results in Forex as the USD has created stark trends with the USD/JPY, USD/ZAR, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the USD/INR. Results in Forex and their volatility have created trading opportunities for speculators that have been likely better than wagering on cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to stagnate and wait for the next great upheaval.

The past year has seen major equity indices suffer stark losses. Traders who have a constant bullish perspective because being positive is part of the human psychology have likely suffered if they have tried to be day traders via CFD’s of equity indices on the buy side constantly. Choppy conditions in the stock markets may continue for a while. Certainly in the long term many indices will rebound upwards, but buying individual stocks with leverage in anticipation that widespread bullish momentum is going to be a constant remains a nervous bet.

Forex via a USD pairing is beginning to look opportunistic for speculators. Picking the exact time a true solid reversal is going to become a constant is difficult and dangerous. There are no guarantees that we have seen the lows for the GBP, the EUR and JPY along with others currencies versus the USD, but if the U.S is truly going to have to admit recessionary pressures are taking hold, this may have an impact on inflation as demand decreases which the Fed would react to.

Things can wrong, more war breaking out, viruses bursting forth can be transmitted, political upheavals are a possibility in various locales, but from a risk reward perspective perhaps we are drawing to a close regarding the dominance the USD has shown the past year.