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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Battlefronts for the 7th of Sept

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Battlefronts for the 7th of Sept

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10. Cape Town: Springboks take on the All Blacks in Round Four of the Rugby Championship later this afternoon. South Africa won last week’s test. Roster changes have been made to both starting squads. Springboks Captain Siya Kolisi will start, this after he had been listed as questionable earlier this week because of a nose fracture he suffered in last Saturday’s game, which will be dealt with surgically in the near future. The All Blacks are extremely difficult to beat two games in a row, today’s match could be a firecracker.

9. Spy Games: Alleged China spy Linda Sun is accused of trying to influence policy while working in New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s office as an aide. The alleged spy also worked in the previous New York administration under Andrew Cuomo. Sun and her husband, Chris Hu, have been charged by the U.S government to be in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act amidst a litany of alleged illegal activities.

8. VPN Wanted: Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has suspended X because of claims the social media service, previously known as Twitter, is allowing ‘misinformation’. Justice Alexandre de Moraes has broad powers and is permitting Brazil’s ruling government led by Lula da Silva to walk a perilous line that does not allow for free expression. Brazil has not heard the last of Elon Musk.

7. Boeing: Starliner returned to earth last night touching down in New Mexico, but without the astronauts it delivered to space in early June. The mission was supposed to take 8 days, but instead stranded the two astronauts on the International Space Station. NASA has stated it was potentially dangerous for the astronauts to return in Starliner. The astronauts are now scheduled to return in February 2025 with SpaceX. Starliner is owned by Boeing. This time last year Boeing’s share value was near 219.00, as of yesterday it is 157.62 USD.

6. Xmas in October: Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan President (dictator), has announced the Christmas holiday will be celebrated on the 1st of October, allowing Venezuelan citizens an early celebration in order to forget the troubles imposed on the nation by foes who are working against the socialist government. Maduro joins a well established line of totalitarian leadership who have historically moved or canceled religious holidays to manipulate the population.

5. Harris vs. Trump: A debate between the two candidates will take place this coming Tuesday on the 10th of September. Because of murky outlooks among many financial institutions, this televised ‘exchange of views’ will not only get the attention of U.S voters and an interested worldwide populace, but global investors as well. The last Presidential debate effectively ended Joe Biden’s hopes of being re-elected. Will this event proceed without biased moderators?

4. Wobbly High-Wire: WTI Crude Oil finished the week around 68.52 per barrel as traders appear to be worried about a U.S economic slowdown. Gold closed Friday near the 2,497.00 realm per ounce, as investors fret over the USD and Federal Reserve. BTC/USD is trading around 54,230 at the time of this writing, Bitcoin was valued around 65,000 early on the 26th of August. Cocoa closed near 8,300.00 USD per ton yesterday after flirting with lows touching 7,900.00 on Wednesday. Day traders trying to wager this past week within commodities likely found they were not immune to nervous sentiment.

3. Negative: U.S jobs data was bad. While some say the numbers were mixed the Non-Farm Employment Change came in significantly lower than its estimate, and the previous month’s statistics were revised downwards. The higher Average Hourly Earnings report provided no favors via its outcome of 0.4% compared to the expected result of 0.3%, it wasn’t too far from the estimate and should not change inflation perspectives. Simply put, the jobs numbers are causing concerns in many financial institutions who believe the Federal Reserve is being too cautious.

2. Nervous Investors: U.S equity indices finished yesterday’s trading at their lows for the week. In fact the Nasdaq 100, Dow 30 and S&P 500 are all traversing values they last saw on the 13th of August. The major indices are fragile. Equities on the 13th of August were still recovering from losses seen the week before when previous Fed and BoJ policy chaos triggered overreactive selling on the 5th of August. On Friday the 2nd of August negative Non-Farm Employment Change data was published. What will happen to indices, Forex and Treasury yields on Monday the 9th of September?

1. Fed Fail: John Williams the New York Federal Reserve President said after the jobs numbers were reported, that the Federal Funds Rate is in a position to be cut. However, Williams continued to lean into the widespread notion the Fed will only impose a 0.25% decrease. He did say he would look at the jobs numbers closely, but he believed the Fed is well positioned. Behavioral sentiment among financial institutions appeared to react poorly to Williams remarks, producing a strong selloff as Friday progressed. The dream of orchestrating a soft economic landing in the U.S by the Federal Reserve allowing inflation to erode, the jobs market to soften, and GDP to remain above recessionary pressure remains the lofty goal. However financial institutions do not like the convoluted mid-term economic outlook, they now want to hear a dovish sounding Federal Reserve and appear ready to cause more short-term chaos in the markets this coming week.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

by with No Comment AMT MarketsArtificial IntelligenceFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Rays of Light for 23rd of August

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10. Word of the Day: Like crepuscular animals which are active during twilight, large market players are ruminating as their summer hiatus draws to an end over the next week and a half. Plans for coming hunts are being formulated as leisure concludes for financial institutions preparing to work in the shadows.

9. Scrolling Failures: Lack of solid results on search engines are becoming a growing annoyance. Is it just us? An abundance of poor information via defined searches on the internet and finding what is sought is becoming increasingly problematic. Is AI being allowed to do too much while still too dumb? AI doesn’t know when it is wrong. Competitors to Google and others are sought.

8. How Dare Us: The postponement of imposed dates regarding energy policy changes are multiplying. The end for the classical use of oil, coal and nuclear is not near. Efficient power is evolving, but this will have to include ‘antique’ generation and grids. The demand for electric vehicles are being confronted with declining sales via U.S consumers. Tangible technology needs precise planning, not apocalyptic rhetoric which tries to scare people.

7. Middle East Calm: The storm is being limited within a tea cup for the moment. The potential for a dangerous boiling painful mess still exists. ‘Serenity now’ remains a mantra for those who need to pay attention as chagrin and anxiousness mix.

6. Fed Retreat: The FOMC Meeting Minutes released this week showed some Fed members remained cautious, while others banged the drum louder regarding interest rate cuts. However, a Fed Funds Rate reduction is almost a 100% certainty for the 18th of September. The question now is what the Fed will do in November. Fed Chairman Powell and a slew of other renowned global central bankers will speak today and tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Financial institutions largely believe they know what is going to be said, but comments from Bank of Japan and Brazilian leadership could prove to be informative and entertaining for central bank nerds. Monday could be volatile for USD/BRL traders.

5. VIX: The CBOE’s Volatility Index climbed to the 56 vicinity on the 5th of August as panic grew via widespread overreactions to hyperbole ripping through the markets. The fear gauge is near the 17.55 ratio as of this writing. Market calm has resumed across the board as financial institutions and day traders have been able to achieve a pleasant tone again. Traders who use the VIX as a template regarding the potential of risks suddenly cascading into assets should keep their eyes on the index, which went to a low around the 14.45 mark on Monday. Yet, the slight incremental climb the past few days could be coming from folks still speculating on volatility which may not develop near-term.

4. Barometers: Gold is lingering slightly below 2,500.00 for the moment, this after having achieved a record high on Tuesday when it touched the 2532.00 apex. WTI Crude Oil is near 74.00 USD per barrel and is maintaining a polite value range. Speculatively, Cocoa is again above 9,000 USD per ton and Bitcoin has fought its way above 61,000 this morning. Risk appetite remains stable for the moment.

3. Forex: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, even the USD/ZAR have been able to hold onto their recent trends as USD centric weakness remains viable. Traders who were looking for huge moves in FX this week have likely been disappointed. Retail speculators need to understand financial institutions have been positioning for a weaker USD since the tail end of July. Market players may be quite pleased regarding current Forex equilibrium, which may allow technical traders the ability to take advantage of existing behavioral sentiment, this as reversals flourish and the next big wave of impetus is awaited. Next Thursday’s U.S Preliminary GDP numbers may deliver some noise.

2. Cassandras: Market experts who proclaimed a long-term stock market crash in early August have crawled back into their caves to take cover and percolate their next fear mongering tactics. This after the latest round of predicted catastrophes have vanished. While the major U.S stock indices are not at record highs, they have recovered plenty of lost ground and appear ready for more days in the sun.

1. Political Winds: The curtain closed on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last night without a serious hiccup. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now enter a crucial phase of campaigning, and will get plenty of attention as they go into attack mode. The next big event for Harris and Trump will be their televised debate on the 10th of September. Will the outcome prove to be a devastating storm for one of the candidates?

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Punches for the 28th of June 2024

by with No Comment CommoditiesCorporateCryptocurrencies

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Punches for the 28th of June 2024

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10. Cricket: The ICC T20 World Cup Championship will feature South Africa vs. India. The two teams are familiar with each other competitively and the final match will be held at the Kensington Oval in Bridgetown, Barbados on Saturday.

9. Selling Pressure: Lows are being challenged in Bitcoin as it hovers above 61,000.00 USD. Cocoa has stumbled dramatically this week and is below 8,000.00 per metric ton. Who will be courageous and wager on reversals higher? Speculators should remain cautious and understand price velocity that looks tantalizing can also prove costly to trading accounts.

8. Grounded: Boeing’s Starliner remains docked to the International Space Station. Problems have plagued The Boeing Company the past handful of months, and their ambitions of becoming a power within NASA’s explorations are also underachieving. SpaceX and Airbus are certainly paying attention to Boeing’s ineffectiveness.

7. Teetering: The African National Congress and Democratic Alliance political parties in South Africa are feuding about how coalition power will be shared within the National Unity Government. The USD/ZAR has become volatile and is near 18.21000 as tensions mount and reversals hit. Financial institutions are waiting for an optimistic resolution, while also fearing the possibility of an abandonment to positive visions.

6. Inflation: Core Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index statistics will be released today from the U.S. Yesterday’s GDP Price Index came in slightly higher than anticipated which kept USD centric bullish positions relatively strong. However, other American statistics have weakened significantly and the mid-term looks troubling for the U.S economically. Stagflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve is likely hoping to see today’s PCE numbers come in weaker than expected, which would allow the central bank to hint towards Federal Fund Rate cuts later this year.

5. Ennui: President Macron could find his political power further eclipsed after France’s first round voting results this coming Sunday. French voters appear ready to deliver a resounding message of dissatisfaction to the listless ruling government. Election turnout statistics should be watched. The second round of voting will be on the 7th of July. Financial institutions have braced for a shift of power already, but the EUR/USD will still produce volatility in the days ahead.

4. Geopolitical Risks: Russia, China and their allies are likely considering how they will prepare for a potential change in the U.S White House. Foreign policy following last night’s debate between Biden and Trump must be planned. The fact that Trump is viewed as a rather flamboyant personality and not bound by cautious diplomatic attitudes creates a calculus that U.S adversaries will have to consider. While the potential exists that some nations may try to be more aggressive now, they also know that a Trump victory in November would change the international political landscape long-term.

3. Bank of Japan: The Core Tokyo Consumer Price Index produced a gain of 2.1%, which was above the forecasted amount of 2.0% earlier today. The BoJ continues to remain far too dovish regarding interest rate policy and financial institutions are buying the USD/JPY in massive waves. The USD/JPY is around 160.750 as of this writing and did traverse above 161.000 earlier, these are Forex levels not seen since the late 1980’s for the USD/JPY. Japan’s attempt to stimulate the economy with a weaker Japanese Yen may work, but the U.S and others may start to look at the BoJ’s soft devaluation in a very negative light. Speculators of the currency pair need to be extremely careful, because the BoJ has the ability to intervene violently and cause momentary spikes which could prove deadly for day traders trying to take advantage of the outlandish bullish trend.

2. Behavioral Sentiment: Markets will be a looking glass into the future today, this as trading houses react to the realization that Donald Trump is likely going to be the next U.S President. While there are no guarantees regarding the U.S election outcome yet, the broad markets will certainly feel a shift of momentum in the coming days as large players adjust from a cautious approach to more aggressive postures regarding a Trump presidency. U.S equity indices remain near record highs, and the potential of a more business friendly White House which doesn’t threaten tax hikes on U.S corporations will likely affect speculative outlooks.

1. Power: The resounding defeat of Joe Biden last night in the Presidential debate will spark a heated battle among Democratic power brokers. Biden will certainly be asked to step aside after last night’s poor performance. However, Biden is stubborn, and Dem leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Barak Obama among others will have a difficult task to try and convince Biden for the sake of the nation that he must do the honorable thing and release his political delegates at the August Democratic National Convention in Chicago. If this doesn’t happen, the Republicans may be able to achieve a landslide victory by taking control of not only the White House but the Senate too, along with maintaining power in the House of Representatives. All the camouflage in the world last night, including the liberal media, couldn’t mask the inability of Joe Biden to be coherent.