Iran, Oil and The Crumbling of a Criminal Dictatorial Wall
Step aside for a moment from the conspiracy theorists and let’s consider that the U.S did not take out Maduro of Venezuela in order to facilitate more supply of oil. Let’s consider the possibility that Maduro was removed because he did not facilitate free enterprise and ran a criminal enterprise that did not favor the U.S.
Venezuela has the largest demonstrated oil reserves in the world, but the U.S has done rather well without it for years. The Trump administration’s move to take over Venezuela deters China and Russia’s influence in the Americas, while also putting another nail in the coffin of the Cuban regime. The word regime is used implicitly to point out that Venezuela, Russia, China and Cuba are all regimes of one sort via their one party ruling systems. Yes, you can argue the United State has returned to an imperialist philosophy, but that doesn’t mean it has dictatorial rule. Some will argue that point, I understand. But let’s step away from the complexity of political biases – including my own – and insights and discuss oil for a moment.
The takeover of the Venezuelan oil infrastructure, which has not happened in full yet via the U.S military action, does not mean U.S oil companies will make trillions of dollars from the adventure immediately. In fact a glut of oil is one of the potential consequences if Venezuela were to return to an open market system with its energy supply. Yes, the price of oil would in theory likely get cheaper. While it can be argued that this will help the U.S consumers, however many U.S producers of the shale oil industry would be put in a difficult spot. Producing oil from shale deposits requires hydraulic fracturing – known as fracking – and is an expensive endeavor. Cheaper oil from Venezuela in other words could put small and medium producers in the U.S out of business if supply becomes too ample
Now let’s turn our attention to Iran and the attempted revolution that is fomenting a reaction from the regime of that nation. Oil supply is certainly at stake for the world, but there is the overwhelmingly important possibility of allowing 90 million plus people to live in a system without repression. As of last night internet and telephone lines have been shuttered by the dictatorial government. There is a legitimate fear that many people protesting for their rights to be free now face the risk of violence and some have already begun to pay with their lives. Freedom is more important than oil for the people of Iran and Venezuela. It should also be pointed out that Venezuela and Iran are members of OPEC and this is likely not going to change.
The Trump administration is threatening military action against the Iranian rulers, but it is questionable how the regime of Iran could be overthrown by outside forces if there are not active combat boots the ground. While it may be possible to attempt a Venezuela like mission in Iran, that would be difficult at best considering the regime is already paranoid and on high alert. The civilians of Iran will have to do a lot of the work by themselves. Which means the populace of Iran will need to be able to organize and collectively topple a dictatorship, and this is unlikely to be done by handing out flowers. The regular army of Iran must disobey orders and the police must decide not to participate in violence against the protesters, allowing a seizure of power by the people.
At this juncture it remains difficult to say what will happen in Iran, except to say that there is likely going to be blood spilled. The Berlin Wall fell after decades of Cold War between the West and East. The wall of the Islamic Republic of Iran which was declared in the first week of April 1979 has nearly been running its dictatorship as long as the communists controlled Eastern Europe.
If and it is a big if, the Iranian people are able to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran it would be a game changer the world over. The complexity of the mafia style state that the current dictatorship has controlled not only in the Middle East, but throughout South America and elsewhere via influence with its proxies like Hezbollah is enormous. The dismantling of this network would take longer than the toppling of the Iranian regime. The world is unlikely to ever know in full detail the criminal activity of the current Iranian government and its proxies worldwide.
This is not about oil, it is about freedom. However, if the oil of Iran suddenly came under the control of a Western looking Iran that was unshackled, yes it would add to a vast amount of energy that the world already enjoys, but OPEC would find a way to manage the supply.
If Iran were to join the ranks of free nations and castoff its current leadership the world would benefit greatly. Only nations and proxies that gain from the exploitation of the Iranian dictatorship would worry. If the Iranian dictatorship falls there will not be paradise, but the event would be significant and transform the current state of global affairs.
