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Cocoa Surges Past 11,500 per Ton, Coffee Flying High Too

Cocoa Surges Past 11,500 per Ton, Coffee Flying High Too

Cocoa above 11,500 per ton as of 10th December 2024

Holiday chocolate about to get more expensive? Cocoa and Coffee futures are hitting highs again. Someone, somewhere is making a lot of money off of the surges.

If you are a day trader trying to pursue these commodities you need deep pockets and conservative leverage (if at all). The reversals higher in Cocoa and Coffee futures since November have been fast and dangerous, even for the large players. The notion the market is overbought is logical, but it has also been fatal for short sellers.

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Forex Volatility as Central Banks, GDP, U.S Equities Shadow

Forex Volatility as Central Banks, GDP, U.S Equities Shadow

Perhaps it is good that today will see a lack of important economic data which will affect the markets. It might give a chance for day traders to relax and to gauge the thinking of financial institutions and investors before Central Banks, and important growth and inflation numbers shift behavioral sentiment later this week. While Forex has remained a minefield, U.S equity indices have soared to record heights. More volatility will come.

Shanghai Composite Index Five Year Chart as of 22nd January 2024

Risk assessment is always critical, it needs to be mentioned the Shanghai Composite Index is again facing severe selling pressure. This is a direct result of foreign investors losing faith in China’s economic policy and political maneuverings. The slump in Chinese equities is also hitting the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong badly. Deflation is a legitimate fear in China. The dual consequences of a failing housing sector and crumbling equity values is harming Chinese citizens.

While the strong selloff in Chinese equities would have caused a massive amount of reaction in the global markets a few years ago, the ability to shift assets elsewhere by foreign investors who were active in China has likely reduced potential knock on effects in other global equity markets. It must also be pointed out that China continues to sit on a massive amount of USD holdings. China is a large investor in Africa and their attempt to steer influence there remains abundantly clear.

Nifty 50 Index Five Year Chart as of 22nd January 2024

India has directly benefited from the outflow of investments from China. A look at the Nifty 50 Index shows the upwards momentum India’s equity market has enjoyed as it has started to attract more direct foreign investment. The ability of the India stock market to go up while China struggles is a barometer worth studying. Outflow vs. inflow.

Monday, 22nd of January, U.S Conference Board’s Leading Index – the reading is not at the forefront of consideration for investors, they will be watching the results of U.S Treasury yields and stock indices more closely than this report.

Tuesday, 23rd of January, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and Outlook Report – no major change is expected from the BoJ quite yet. The USD/JPY has been volatile and provided a solid trend upwards since the start of January. Day traders looking for a reversal lower to develop should be extremely cautious. Data from Japan has been mixed and the BoJ is likely to remain conservative. The weaker JPY helps exports from Japan it must be remembered, but it also may factor into inflation creeping into the Japanese economy.

NZD/USD One Month Chart as of 22nd January 2024

Tuesday, 23rd of January, New Zealand Consumer Price Index – the inflation report is expecting a result of 0.5%, which would be below the previous result of 1.8%. The NZD/USD has taken a bearish dive since late December. Like all major currencies the New Zealand Dollar remains USD centric. Volatility in the NZD/USD may occur via the inflation numbers from New Zealand, but like the USD/JPY it may find its biggest impetus coming from afar – U.S data and the Federal Reserve outlook.

Wednesday, 24th of January, E.U and U.K Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports – Germany and France are anticipating slightly better Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers. Services numbers are expected to be slightly weaker from Germany. Solid results from these combined publications could help the EUR/USD create a bit of bullish momentum.

The U.K numbers via their Manufacturing PMI is expected to be slightly better than the previous outcome, but the Services number a bit worse. Economic data from Britain remains mixed to lackluster. Higher inflation numbers last week did the Bank of England no favors. The GBP/USD will be affected briefly by the results, but trading in the Forex pair is likely to remain geared towards thoughts about U.S data coming this Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday, 24th of January, Bank of Canada Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Report – the key lending rate from the BoC is expected to remain unchanged. However, Canadian economic numbers have been problematic, and while the BoC may want to wait for the U.S Federal Reserve to move first regarding interest rates, critics of the BoC are becoming louder. The USD/CAD will react to the Bank of Canada’s rhetoric, but unless there is a major surprise the currency pair will remain heavily USD centric.

Thursday, 25th of January, European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – the ECB is expected to provide no major changes. The 4.50% interest rate is anticipated to stay in place. The ECB will likely ‘sound’ a calm tone and say while improvements are being seen in the E.U, that areas of difficulty remain but are understood and being managed.

Thursday, 25th of January, U.S Advance Gross Domestic Product – the key growth number from the U.S is anticipated to show a gain of 2.0%. This number will get a reaction in Forex, equities and bonds. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting is next week and this GDP result will factor into their monetary policy rhetoric. Because it is an election year in the U.S, this number will also get an additional ‘sounding board’. Day traders should be careful before and after the noise caused by this growth report.

Friday, 26th of January, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – the vital inflation number carries an estimated gain of 0.2% before its release. As much as the Fed watches the GDP number, the inflation result via the Core PCE is a huge component of the U.S central bank’s thinking. The USD will react to this report and Forex traders should brace for a reaction from financial institutions. If the number is weaker than expected the USD could find selling momentum, if the number is stronger more USD strength could be seen. Folks looking at the GDP and Core PCE reports should also look for potential revisions to previous months results, which could cause another wave of volatility in the markets if they are significant.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Pre-Xmas Thoughts for 22nd of Dec.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Pre-Xmas Thoughts for 22nd of Dec.

10. Music: The Nutcracker by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky via Simon Rattle and the Berliner Philharmoniker.

9. Book: Zhou Enlai: The Last Perfect Revolutionary by Gao Wenqian.

8. Mobile Gaming: Revenues from ‘gaming on the go’ in 2023, via an Electronics Weekly article, is estimated to be 92.6 billion USD worldwide. Honor of Kings via Tencent leads the pack.

7. Data: U.S Final GDP quarterly numbers came in at 4.9%, missing its estimate of 5.2%. Final GDP Price Index quarterly results were 3.3%, below the anticipated mark of 3.6%. Canada will release its GDP numbers today for those paying attention.

6. USD: The greenback continues to produce incremental declines. Yesterday’s ‘weaker’ U.S GDP numbers helped solidify a bearish USD outlook mid-term.

5. Trading Volumes: Speculators who insist on wagering today need to understand many financial institutions are closing early. ‘Thin’ holiday markets can be extremely quiet and then become volatile without warning.

4. Global Risk: As traders relax during their holiday break, they should monitor news about the Red Sea for potential problems caused by the Houthis rebels from Yemen.

3. China: Economic concerns are mounting for the nation. The Shanghai Composite is approaching lows last seen in October of 2022.

2. Holiday Markets: U.S equity indices continue to show solid risk appetite. S&P 500 is now approaching all-time highs seen in 2022. Dow Jones 30 is at a record level. Nasdaq Composite trend still bullish.

1. Thank you: We wish all readers who are celebrating Christmas a fantastic holiday.

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Behavioral Sentiment: Sports and Trading a Key Correlation

Behavioral Sentiment: Sports and Trading a Key Correlation

In order to be an effective day trader a speculator needs to be able to control their emotions. A person can have years of market knowledge, the best schooling, read the world’s greatest books, be able to quote the leading financial experts and still be a bad trader. While it is important to understand the complexities being generated via technical and fundamentals and the power of behavioral sentiment, again it doesn’t guarentee you profits.

CBOE VIX Index six month chart as of 17th November 2023

When a day trader initiates pursuit of position, long or short, they can even be right about the eventual direction and still lose their money when the trade is complete. The missing link for many speculators while trading is their inability to control their emotions.

Many sports fans know that there are teams that have some of the highest paid athletes, but frequently have lackluster results because the team is not able to handle the bright lights of the stadium, they let crowds affect them. Some teams simply prove over time they are not prepared to really compete in the most important games; trading results frequently are similar when a speculator is not ready for the financial market they want to compete within.

Unless a market participant can handle their anxiousness, nervousness, frustration, assaults from value gyrations (reversals of price), doubts and the noise of the crowd (news being generated from the media that is mere hyberbole) and other challenges that can affect their emotional state – a trader is unlikely to have success.

Sports and trading are very similar sometimes. Professional athletic competitions between the world’s best are often a contest of ‘wills’. In many sports the top athletes are almost equally matched regarding their physical ability. In trading many speculators have the same perspectives regarding potential market directions, yet they produce different outcomes.

The difference maker in sports and trading when it comes to positive results – winning, is the ability to control their emotional state. Remaining calm and focused, knowing the goal and tasks that must be accomplished to achieve victory in sports and trading is often the result of keeping tranquil psychologically in the middle of battle.

You can have all the necessary trading skills needed to pursue a position within Forex, equity indices, commodities via the cash market, CFDs and futures, but if you do not have control of your emotions you are likely to lose.

Day traders also need to understand that one day of results, winning or losing, does not mean anything regarding future prospects. Like the best athletes, traders need to enter every trade as if it is a new game. Discipline, tactical objectives are important in trading. Being able to walk away from a losing position and leaving enough in your account to pursue the markets, for the next time you feel there is a potentially profitable objective that is attractive is also important.

You must know yourself to be a good trader, you must understand your own emotions and work on weaknesses. The ability to be profitable over a long time is not as simple as merely entering your online trading platform and opening a position which has been recommended or that you think is a winner.

It is one thing to understand the positive movement of a potential trade, but you must be ready for the negative possibilities when a trade is not going your way and the ability to navigate through the storm. Is your stop loss in place? Does the amount of leverage you are using allow you to walk away from a losing trade and still have enough ammunition (money) for other trades? Can you handle the volatility that is likely to ensue in potentially choppy conditions?

You need a solid gameplan. One of the greatest risks a trader is confronted by is their lack of emotional fortitude. Successful speculators embrace their trading positions because they are attractive, but they also manage their expectations and have a plan of attack in place before they enter every trade. Good traders can block out the noise of the crowd and enjoy the competitive nature of battling the financial markets.

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AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Shots for Friday the 3rd of Nov.

10. NBA: Welcome to Victor Wembanyama’s world. VW’s 5th game as a Spur was historic last night.

9. South Africa: The Springboks Rugby World Cup victory is helping unifying the nation and giving all its citizens a hope for better days.

8. Book: The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn.

7. Crypto: Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all counts. Yet, Bitcoin is near 34,600.00 USD per coin.

6. Risks: Signs of appetite as U.S equity indices have moved higher, and U.S Treasury yields have declined.

5. Gold: The precious metal still lingering near 2000.00 USD and may attract bearish speculative positions.

4. Middle East: Global financial institutions appear to have dealt with the noise.

3. U.S Jobs Reports: Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and Average Hourly Earnings inflation data will be published today and shake markets.

2. Federal Reserve: The U.S central bank may have reached the end of it interest rates hikes cycle.

1. USD: The world’s reserve currency remains suspiciously strong and if it is a relatively calm today and this weekend, day traders may begin to embrace selling wagers.

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Horror Show to Come for Bitcoin and MicroStrategy?

Horror Show to Come for Bitcoin and MicroStrategy?

How cruel do hedge funds want to be? Actually it isn’t about being cruel, it is about making money. And hedge funds have an opportunity they could be pursuing which will affect Bitcoin and MicroStrategy.

Bitcoin is traversing slightly above the 19,581.00 as of this writing. Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, announced a couple of days ago his company has bought 480 additional Bitcoin near an average price of 21,817.00.

MicroStrategy is selling for around 164.30 via its listing on NASDAQ as of this morning. Because MicroStrategy holds 129,699 Bitcoin as of the 28th of June, the price of the company is certainly feeling the pressure of the bearish trend in Bitcoin. There is a direct correlation.

Now how can you take advantage of that? Well you may not be able to as an individual, unless you have plenty of money to wager on a massive speculation. However, hedge funds do have huge amounts of money to bet, and they potentially could be setting the table for a ‘bloodletting’ in Bitcoin and MicroStrategy which could equate into a massive payday for the hedge funds.

Let’s say some analyst for one of the hedge funds who is quantifying numbers as part of their job, and is looking for potential weaknesses in the current world of financial affairs takes a long look at Bitcoin and MicroStrategy and smells an opportunity. Let’s for a moment, consider the possibility that if the hedge fund believes Bitcoin can sink further and wants to short the digital asset it might be a good idea. Combine that with the notion that MicroStrategy is under pressure and could lose additional value if Bitcoin falls in price. This would set the table for a hedge fund to short both Bitcoin and MircoStrategy.

A combined short on BTC/USD and MicroStrategy is a potential huge payoff. The ability of knowing exact short positions on Bitcoin, also correlates into projections regarding MicroStrategy’s outlook. It is the equivalent of a daily double horse racing strategy.

Considering that the market capitalization of Bitcoin is around 373.6 billion USD at this moment around a price of 19,581.00 per coin, this is not a massive amount of money if a handful of hedge funds were to combine in the endeavor of seeking erosion of value in Bitcoin and MicroStrategy.

A reduction in price of Bitcoin also will likely lead to more capitulation among ancillary businesses related to the digital asset. There is a definite fear of contagion among decentralized finance enterprises and some are wobbling already, expect more carnage.

There are no guarantees in trading. Risk is aplenty. However, hedge funds can create much more force in the market and a combination of efforts to seek havoc is actually a healthy part of the marketplace. Hedge funds are able to take risks because they have a better ability to absorb pain for longer periods of time than a mere speculator.

Hedge funds seek weaknesses and strengths and take advantage of errors in the system. Bitcoin and MircroStrategy are vulnerable and together they could sink further.