postR168

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 21st of June 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Missiles for the 21st of June 2024

postR168

10. Say Hey Kid: Baseball legend Willie Mays passed away earlier this week. He was a beloved player on the New York and San Francisco Giants in the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s. He might have been the best five tool baseball player of all-time.

9. AI Apocalypse: Talk about selling Nvidia shares to cash out of the super hot Artificial Intelligence tech boom on Wall Street might be considered the safe thing to do in order to protect profits. However, betting on the existing ‘machine learning’ gold rush in the stock markets to possibly end soon, thus turning into a ‘dot com’ like bubble bursting in the spring of 2000 could be misguided. The ‘dot com’ exuberance essentially started in 1995 and ran for almost five full years. The Artificial Intelligence surge may still have a lot of room to run.

8. Simmering Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin all remain at lofty prices, but they have lost value since touching highs in the first week of June. Trading volume of cryptos – including BTC/USD – is still below its peak of 2021 and early 2022. While the introduction of ETF products for Bitcoin has gotten institutional money involved, many individual ex-traders remain cautious. Former illustrious speculative plays like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have turned into niche wagering cesspools.

7. Hezbollah Poker: Hassan Nasrallah delivered a surprise statement earlier this week when he proclaimed if there is an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, that Cyprus could be attacked by missiles. The U.K still maintains sovereign military bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia on the island of Cyprus. Direct fire from Hezbollah on an E.U member nation would be a major intensification of the Middle East conflict. Nasrallah may believe the rather limited response by the West to the Houthis attacks in the Red and Arabian seas, makes his threats on Cyprus an objective guise to get the West to pressure Israel to hold their fire.

6. Commodity Watch: WTI Crude Oil price is over 81.00 USD as of this writing and Gold is near 2365.00 per ounce. The price of energy needs to be watched because of its potential impact of inflation. WTI prices have been rather tame the past two and half months, but have climbed the past week. The precious metal remains within sight of highs and has been lingering within an elevated range since the middle of April. Cocoa for those interested is back below 10,000.00 USD per metric ton.

5. Shifting Sentiment: The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real have lost value as politics in Mexico and Brazil are causing nervousness among financial institutions. The governing political parties in both nations are trying to reach for new powers, and the selloff of the two currencies against the USD have been clear. Morena, the leftist political party governing Mexico, is seeking controversial judicial reform which is seen as an attempt to gain more political influence. Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party is attempting to take the head of the Central Bank of Brazil, Roberto Campos Neto, to court to try and muzzle his fiscal viewpoints. The USD/MXN is near 18.31650 and the USD/BRL is around 5.4539 as of this writing. Rand traders who have seen a bearish USD/ZAR trend emerge the past week and a half because of renewed optimism in South Africa might find the spats in Mexico and Brazil intriguing.

4. Euro Barometer: The first French election will be held on the 30th of June, the second on the 7th of July. The contest is shaping up as a election between the Left and Right. Political coalitions are being formed rapidly. The attempt to coalesce on the Left is an obvious sign that politicians feel threatened with the prospect of sweeping losses. Media noise is certain to boom and be exaggerated in the coming days as warnings about this election potentially affecting all of humankind litters the airwaves. Macron and other politicians may find tough days ahead as they apologize for policy failures and get punished via the election outcomes. The EUR/USD is close to 1.06931 for the moment.

3. China Woes: Economic data from the housing sector continues to show a downwards trajectory regarding home values in the nation, and it is having an impact on consumers as their net worth suffers and affects spending habits. Not only are property values still dropping at a rapid pace, but recent Factory output data has come in below expectations. China is tentatively scheduled to release Foreign Direct Investment numbers soon.

2. Summer Doldrums: Investor behavioral sentiment appears to be in a wait and see mode as as more impetus is awaited and large players grow cautious. The U.S will issue PMI manufacturing and services data today, but the results will have a limited effect. The U.S Juneteenth holiday which was celebrated on Wednesday and the return of traders yesterday did not rejuvenate optimism. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 lost some ground. While the Dow 30 did gain slightly yesterday, the index has been treading water compared to the Nasdaq and S&P over the past month.

1. Geriatric Debate: Next Thursday the 27th of June, President Biden and former President Trump will debate. The televised event will be watched by American voters and the world. Not only will the debate deliver potential impetus to financial assets if there is a clear winner, but it may provide a large wagering environment for betters who gamble on which Presidential candidate will be the first to go off script. People in the U.S desire a discussion about the economy, foreign policy and immigration, this while hoping for a lack of mishaps, hyperbole and demagoguery which is unfortunately quite likely.

postN89.1

Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

by with No Comment Behavioral SentimentCommoditiesFeatured Highlights

Forex: Powell, ECB and U.S Jobs Numbers as Gold and Oil Run

Day traders and investors received a dose of optimistic ‘news’ last week as U.S economic data came in weaker than expected. While Forex certainly proved choppy as anticipated, the USD has shown signs of stability and perhaps has created a durable resistance level up above regarding its potential value looking into the mid-term.

postN89.1
Gold Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

A potential telltale sign regarding the USD in Forex is the current price of Gold which is testing highs and as of this writing is near 2115.00 USD. While below the speculative heights of early December, the precious metal is above prices seen in late December when the USD was being sold heavily. The value of Gold is a rather solid barometer regarding outlook for behavioral sentiment in Forex. A weaker USD translates into a higher Gold price in many cases.

U.S Treasury yields have also decreased slightly over the past handful of days. And while U.S equity indices are within sight of record values, traders should monitor developing news regarding U.S regional banks and concerns about New York Community Bancorp (NYBC). For the moment it appears investors have not turned too nervous when considering the bigger picture of stock markets. Perhaps last year’s regional bank crisis has made investors in equity indices feel immune to fears of contagion stemming from bad commercial real estate lending. Or perhaps many folks are marching along merrily and refuse to pay attention for fear of missing out when their associates continue to parade into the indices.

The cryptocurrency market has come out of its deep freeze and sunshine is pervading the mindsets of speculative gamblers in crypto assets. U.S run ETFs are raising a lot of money. Folks have driven the market sky high again in the digital asset Bitcoin and its fellow travelers like Ethereum, Binance Coin, and there have been signs of pure casino like wagering in Dogecoin and Shibu Inu. Be carefu if you are considering dipping your toes into this ‘market’. Volatility and changes of sentiment can happen in the flick of an eye.

postN89.2
USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Monday, 4th of March, Japan Capital Spending – a huge jump of 16.4% was reported yesterday. This points to better economic sentiment. The Bank of Japan has been getting a lot of attention the past handful of months because some financial institutions expect the BoJ’s monetary policy to begin changing. The USD/JPY remains near important resistance levels, but below the highs of last October and November 2023 values. Mid-term speculators may be leaning towards bearish sentiment in the currency pair, but a trend lower has not been established yet.

Tuesday, 5th of March, U.S Service PMI via ISM – last week’s growth and inflation data from the U.S was less than expected. While the U.S economy has shown rather stubborn growth, the American economy may be showing signs of slowing. Today’s reading is expected to come in below the previous month’s outcome.

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell – the Fed chief will testify before the Senate via the Semi-Annual Monetary Report over a two day span. Because it is an election year a rather aggressive amount of questions will be asked. However, Powell is a skilled speaker and it unlikely he will be rattled by political rhetoric. Of interest will be any comments regarding inflation, this as the Fed Chairman is asked for insights regarding the Federal Funds Rate outlook. While this testimony in Washington D.C is usually a polite get together, the notion that some politicians may try to score points will make this a potentially important calendar event for investors to pay attention regarding financial market gyrations. Powell is expected to remain cautious regarding his answers.

postN89.3
WTI Crude Oil One Year Chart as of 5th March 2024

Wednesday, 6th of March, U.S Crude Oil Inventories – last week’s U.S supply report posted increased results, yet the price of WTI Crude Oil jumped the end of last week. The value of the commodity remains within the lower part of its one year range and should be watched. Recent speculative action has shown some buying momentum. The price of energy is a big component within global inflation and should be watched as the 80.00 USD Crude Oil level is challenged.

postN89.4
EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 5th March 2024

Thursday, 7th of March, European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate – once again the ECB is expected to not act. The question is if financial institutions may try to send the European Central Bank a message because of its ‘inaction’ as inflation remains stubborn in Europe and growth hard to achieve. The EUR/USD has returned to value above the 1.08000 mark again, but visions of a stronger EUR have been hard to attain. The combination of the ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is addressing politicians in Washington D.C could make for an interesting day of volatility in Forex.

Thursday, 7th of March, U.S State of the Union – President Joe Biden will deliver his address to Congress.

Friday, 8th of March, U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings – weaker jobs numbers and diminishing wage escalation are expected. U.S economic data last week came in below estimates. This report will be a solid barometer for financial institutions. While the work force numbers in the U.S are said to be tight – meaning there is full employment – layoffs have certainly been taking place in some sectors. Also worth paying attention to in the ‘back pages’ of the report, will be the amount of average hours worked by employees which have seen a statistical decline emerge.

postN51

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

AMT Top Ten Miscellaneous Spiders for the 1st of March 2024

postN51

10. Palystes: Huntsman spiders known in South Africa as ‘rain spiders’ are nocturnal and visit indoors, sometimes causing horror for those stumbling through hallways in the middle of the night. But it is better than a baboon entering the house.

9. Victor Wembanyama: Last night’s stat line included 28 points, 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 3pts made, 7 assists, 2 steals in less than 33 minutes played. The rookie is already one of the best NBA players. Btw, the Spurs beat the Thunder also.

8. Tech: Chinese cars are now in the crosshairs of U.S politicians who are worried the ‘smart’ vehicles can collect sensitive data from Americans.

7. Crypto: Bitcoin above 61,000.00 USD, Ethereum over 3,300.00, and Binance Coin testing 400.00 even as the company remains under U.S legal shadows. How much air can the balloons withstand?

6. Putin’s Nuclear Threats: In a world with escalating geo-political tension, the Russian leader remains determined and energetic while playing ‘war poker’ against Europe.

5. U.S Data: Core PCE Index numbers yesterday met expectations, but the previous month’s outcome was revised downwards. Today a Consumer Sentiment reading comes from the University of Michigan. This week’s U.S data has mostly been pleasantly ‘weaker’.

4. Central Banks: Fed ‘watchers’ are likely feeling more comfortable this morning regarding the possibility of a late spring ‘thaw’ in U.S interest rates. Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate next Thursday. The ECB will release their Monetary Policy Statement on the 7th of March also. Next FOMC pronouncements will be on the 20th of March.

3. Gold: The precious metal is near 2050.00 USD, this after yesterday’s U.S inflation report, gold could remain volatile today. Some speculators may be looking for additional value to develop.

2. Forex: FX has been a constant battle the past two months, but patient traders with mid-term perspectives may be anticipating their weaker USD targets to trend more steadily.

1. Equities: Many global stock indices are achieving record levels as bullish behavioral sentiment creates upwards momentum. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Composite, Dow 30, Nikkei 225 and the DAX Index are flirting with higher values.

post5

Silence Of Tether a Loud Warning in Crypto Trading World

by with No Comment Cryptocurrencies & Digital Assets

Silence Of Tether a Loud Warning in Crypto Trading World

Tether continues to trade below its stated target value of 1.0000 via its stable coin ‘mandate’, and its failure to attain the target for nearly a month may be a loud warning.

Failure to Maintain 1.00000000 value in Tether

USDT/USD is trading near 0.99892000 via a Coinbase quote as of this writing. The last time Tether traded above the 1.0000 level in a sustained manner was in the last week of April. Since the destruction of TerraUSD, USDT/USD has not attained its objective as a stable coin in a month and a half.

One of the Tether functions in the cryptocurrency world is to facilitate transactions for digital asset businesses. If a tech firm, for instance, were to initiate an investment for a project in the crypto world, they might ask for the equivalent of 1 million USD. This transaction via the funding in the investment is often paid for via a stable coin. Tether is a mainstay of these investment deals.

post5

Receiving Tether allows the business taking in the stable coin investments, to ‘know’ they hold what is supposed to be a nearly exact USD based exchange rate, if they decide to cash in their Tether if they need dollars to pay bills. The problem for USDT/USD currently is that the exchange rate is not meeting this need and expectation.

Yes, a crypto based business could say, ‘well, we know the rate is now 99 cents on the dollar, so we need to ask for more Tether to make sure we get the equivalent of our investment asking price in USD’. OK, good enough, but this creates complications that are unwanted.

The silence of Tether not trading at 1.000 speaks about a much more problematic possibility in the cryptocurrency world. What if USDT/USD is actually starting to show signs of fatigue? What if USDT/USD continues to incrementally lose a little bit of its value moving forward?

Where have the Speculators Gone?

Is it possible there are large speculative funds betting against Tether and shorting the stable coin with the belief it will continue to lose value? If funds are wagering against Tether and have the fortitude to maintain long term selling positions against USDT/USD, they could trigger big problems down the road if they are proven correct.

The cryptocurrency world is showing massive signs that speculators are not participating. While Bitcoin has been able to maintain some semblance of value, BTC/USD is still stumbling near lows and has not been able to create a large reversal higher. Bitcoin is struggling during this prolonged bearish trend. The mantra that cryptocurrencies are a hedge against inflation has proven brazenly false.

Even worse is that most of the other cryptos are struggling too. Ethereum continues to test lower values. As of this writing ETH/USD is near the 1674.00 ratio. Technical support levels are faltering and there appears to be no momentous wave of speculative zeal flourishing which is looking to buy into the digital asset world on the notion that cryptos are oversold. Cardano, Avalanche, Solana, Polkadot and Ripple are all struggling via their coins.

HODL mantra, Corporate Treasury and Hedge Funds

If speculators really have gone away, this leaves the folks who are die hard supporters known as HODL’ers (Hold on for Dear Life). It also leaves intriguingly major companies who have purchased some digital assets such as Bitcoin and cryptos such as Ethereum as ‘assets’ within their corporate treasury structures. There are also hedge fund companies that are holding cryptos as speculative investments. What if corporate treasury suddenly gets scared and decides to cash out of the digital asset world? Will the directors of MicroStrategy and Tesla get nervous and force sales of their digital asset holdings? Michael Saylor has repeatedly said no and that he will keep buying Bitcoin for MicroStrategy.

The lack of a rise in cryptocurrencies during this long bearish trend, and the notion that no massive reversal has been demonstrated during the large erosion of value the past two months is a potentially negative bad sign. Critical technical support levels have been tested repeatedly and their penetration lower is a loud screaming sign that something is going wrong from a short term speculative point of view. It doesn’t appear that we have reached the end of the downturn in cryptocurrencies yet.

If some deep pocketed folks are betting against Tether as a stable coin and believe its value will continue to dwindle without a fight upwards, the silence of USDT/USD recently in the digital asset world may prove to be vicious signal that worse is going to come for cryptos in the coming months.

Cryptocurrencies remain speculating. No matter what some folks say, digital assets over the long haul still have a questionable future via utilitarian capabilities and as their technology evolves. Corporate treasury and hedge funds who ‘invest’ in digital assets are speculating and they may pay a heavy price if they bet on the wrong direction.

The inability of USDT/USD to move back towards its 1.000 value is troubling. If speculators stay on the sidelines and do not participate in cryptos, corporations and hedge funds holding digital assets may be forced to start capitulating . Meaning they may start to sell. If directors of companies and speculative hedge funds start to get nervous about the long term outlook for Bitcoin, and Tether continues to loss value while it proclaims it is a stable coin – then darker days will come.

post3

Speculative Fatigue as Roller Coaster Turns into Crypto Pain

by with No Comment Cryptocurrencies & Digital Assets

Speculative Fatigue as Roller Coaster Turns into Crypto Pain

Global markets remain uneasy in the short term as financial institutions seek clarity and short term speculators take cover.

Thrill of the ride up turns into fear and lost money

Speculators have shown signs of fatigue in the cryptocurrencies markets. A fear of the long term bearish trend has proven expensive for many traders and is certainly threatening to keep many of the major digital assets within their lower price ranges as they bang up against important technical support levels.

New lows would not be surprising in the major digital assets in the coming days. While influencers may still be heard within the confines of social media, traders may be closing their eyes and ears to the optimistic sounds of ‘backers’ who proclaim now is the time to take advantage of lower prices which glisten across the crypto world. The sound of traders walking away can be imagined easily for the moment.

After being told the crypto roller coaster is safe and that steep climbs, the sudden falls and the rocketing higher of prices are normal and the expected outcome, the bearish trend in the cryptos seen since November of 2021 is hard to ignore. Having been told they will always be satisfied at the end of the ride, speculators have walked away fatigued and over the past two months: in April and May have experienced costly downturns if they have been pursuing the ‘promise’ of reversals upward. The sun is likely to come up again, but predicting the time frames is dangerous.

post3

Shadows caused by storms in TerraUSD and LUNA/USD have hurt the crypto marketplace regarding speculative confidence. Not only did the so-called stable coin TerraUSD lose value, it plummeted and is essentially dead in the water. The coin’s blockchain has been halted and most major exchanges have exiled it to the garbage heap. Having once traded at 1.0000, the last listing per CoinMarketCap is around 0.02694.

Oh wait, there is the ‘new’ Terra Classic to watch, but you shouldn’t. Apparently this is the re-launched version of LUNA/USD and a so-called ‘airdrop’ of Terra 2.0 was awarded to folks holding the now worthless Luna token. However, one has to ask who in their right mind would trust the Terra crypto team to deliver long term value? The word scam comes to mind, and while it is only the opinion of this writer, it might be best to ignore Terra completely and any project they offer to the public. The words ‘no shame’ come to mind.

As of this weekend many of the major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Cardano are stumbling near long term lows. Recent consolidation and headwinds do not offer much hope for speculative bullish traders and strong surges higher near term. If a short term trader wants to buy cryptocurrency at this juncture it may prove wise to cash out profits when they are delivered. No doubt long term buyers will have different notions and different risks considerations regarding their objectives and perceptions. Day traders however who are buying via exchanges and speculating on price fluctuations remain in short supply, and this is having an effect on values as the injured folks lick their wounds and try to recover.