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Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Unpredictability of President Trump and the Markets

Everyone wants to know what will happen in the future in the financial world. Most everyone also knows that this is impossible. However, clarity about the mid-term is a legitimate focal point that financial institutions strive. Risk managers define their considerations on assorted perspectives depending on their backgrounds.

While some may like him and others clearly are are not fans, President Trump has a reputation for wanting to get things done. His calling card for a long time has been an ability to make business deals. President Trump however has put himself in a rather difficult position and the next two weeks may prove to be an important milestone. One in which those who like the President and those who don’t will be given more credence to debate.

The Federal Reserve will announce their FOMC decision on the 30th of July. Tariff deadlines will supposedly come on the 1st of August. President Trump has made it clear he does not like the lack of aggressiveness which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is displaying. Trump has called for the Federal Funds Rate to be cut and Powell has not acquiesced.

President Trump has openly spoken about trying to replace the Fed Chairman, but at this juncture the Trump White House knows this will be difficult unless they can prove Jerome Powell has done something maliciously. Not lowering the Federal Funds Rate because of a fear inflation will develop because of potential effects due to tariff fallout is a legitimate reason not to act. Even if the Fed Chairman is wrong, he appears to still be working on a basis which is based on an economic interpretation.

For the next two weeks the broad markets will hear about the Trump and Powell disagreement. It has been argued the Federal Reserve should have lowered the Federal Funds Rate a few months ago, clearly this was not done. However, the USD did trade with weaker sentiment in Forex from early April until the beginning of July. In the past few weeks the USD has garnered some strength, but remains within the lower part of its long-term realms via the U.S Dollar Cash Index. The weakness in the USD was likely due to financial institutions betting on rate cuts to come over the mid and long-term, and which they still believe will happen.

The upwards momentum generated recently by the USD has put the greenback in a position that seems to indicate financial institutions are transacting their cash forward orders cautiously for the moment, while waiting on the next round of impetus. And that is where Federal Reserve clarity and tariff threats now shadow mid-term outlooks.

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U.S Dollar Cash Index Five Year Chart as of 21st July 2025

We have entered an unpredictable window and President Trump apparently doesn’t mind allowing a little danger into the mindsets of the financial markets. It is one thing to proclaim tremendous results and great, magnificent prospects, but how long will investors tolerate a lack of clarity regarding tariff agreements? President Trump has postponed the tariff deadlines several times and what should be considered is the potential that at some point he will have to take action to prove he means business. If the August 1st deadline is extended again this may not cause much of a shock, but it will not be met with optimism.

Instead, the main interpretation from financial institutions may be that Trump is struggling to get agreements done as he had promised. While that might lead to the idea that global commerce will continue on as is, this will certainly not help create the positive impetus which President Trump desired. At some juncture President Trump may begin to be perceived as the little boy that cried wolf. No one will pay attention and the markets will proceed without him. But President Trump will not likely let that happen, he does like attention.

The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 are near record highs, so there isn’t a lot to complain about by index investors. The U.S economy has shown signs of green shoots regarding better retail sales and the recent Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The grey area for many remains inflation, which has been coming in rather well behaved although the most recent report showed a slightly higher outcome with the yearly CPI reading. However, the Federal Reserve actually has evidence that inflation has been tame. Yes, there are questions regarding the coming influence of tariffs on the U.S economy, but for the moment inflation has not risen.

The lack of clarity and not having a mid-term comfort level which is unperturbed may be problematic for small U.S business owners that face tariff concerns on their imported goods. And the bigger picture remains unclear for large U.S corporations – but they certainly continue to try being optimistic. And this is where it gets more dangerous, plenty of perspectives are being driven (inspired) by analysts who have confirmation bias. For instance the downturn in the USD from April until early July was amplified by many who saw this as a sign the USD was being punished by foreign governments opposed to President Trump. This in fact was highly unlikely, traders need to remain alert to false narratives.

The next two weeks need to be treated carefully. There will be a running monologue among many analysts that changes daily as behavioral sentiment moves depending on what is being spoken about the Federal Reserve and tariffs. However, until there are actual answers the financial markets are likely to remain rather choppy. Self awareness will be crucial for speculators. Also, a large factor in the financial markets will be played by the U.S White House regarding how incoming results are presented. Until then day traders may want to watch technical charts and try to figure out where programmed trading lurks regarding support and resistance levels. Price velocity in Forex, bond yields and gold should be monitored.

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No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

No Chance of a Nimble U.S Fed as Entitled Investors Served

On Wednesday of this week Consumer Price Index numbers will be published, followed by Producer Price Index data on Thursday. Inflation statistics from the U.S for several months have been coming in rather tame and sometimes below forecasted results. Fed Chairman Powell and his team of FOMC members continue to plead uncertainty as the main reason for a lack of Federal Fund Rate cuts because of tariff concerns. The next meeting by the Fed finishes on Wednesday the 18th of June.

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U.S Dollar Index One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

Even if the inflation numbers come in as anticipated in the next few days, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates next week. President Trump and some in his cabinet have spoken about the need for rate cuts. Not only would it help consumers via mortgage rates, borrowing costs to buy autos and other high ticket items, but it would help the U.S government pay less on interest rate expenditures generated by inflamed Treasury yields.

The Fed continues to stay passive about its outlook, but if inflation data via the CPI and PPI are near forecasts this week, why would the U.S central bank continue to take such a stubborn stance? Interest rate decisions are not supposed to be political. The Fed has pointed to the potential of sudden inflation occurring due to tariff implications. This is a genuine concern. However, why can’t the Federal Reserve be more nimble? Inflation has not shown signs of immediate upwards pressure.

Perhaps it is because the Fed serves large U.S and foreign financial institutions, and has gotten into the habit of telling important folks not only what it anticipates, but handing out its interest rate plans on a silver platter so large players can position themselves beforehand like entitled elites. The Fed is very unlikely to cut interest rates the middle of next week, but it is probable they will open the door to a 25 basis point cut in July. However, July’s meeting is scheduled for the end of that month, in essence this is the middle of the summer, which is a long time to wait for action.

Day traders hoping to ride the trends that flow through the marketplace as they pursue speculative wagers remain in a difficult spot. Intraday volatility remains dangerous. Mid-term outlooks are certainly taking hold in Forex and equity indices, but sudden reversals for those using too much leverage continues to cause harm. Short-term speculators need to remain patient and vigilant, it is important to remember day traders are seen as second class citizens in the big scheme of the financial world, and this is not going to change for the moment.

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Gold One Year Chart as of 9th June 2025

A lack of clarity has spooked large players in the financial markets the past handful of months, but it does appear many institutions are becoming more comfortable. Though not at all-time highs, the major stock indices are within sight of important values. Behavioral sentiment seems to be leaning into a more positive outlook. Large investors appear to have concluded that while President Trump talks a tough game and often presents a strong stance, that ultimately he allows for tactical maneuvering to achieve deals. Trump is not big on being polite and this occasionally inflames markets. Bullish sentiment is growing on the hope President Trump’s characteristics are understood.

The Fed and the White House are likely to continue locking horns for the next few weeks. Perhaps if Jerome Powell tries to placate Donald Trump with a solid hint of an interest rate cut in July this will smooth things over. However, waiting for an interest rate cut in late July seems like a road too far, particularly when inflation levels the past couple of months avail the U.S economy to proactive actions from a Federal Reserve now.

Let’s remember, there is no law that says the Fed cannot cut or raise interest rates only during the conclusion of FOMC meetings. The U.S central bank has the ability to make changes to the Federal Funds Rate whenever it deems needed. Yet, the Fed refuses to be nimble in an age when technology allows data to be attained faster, this is a detriment.

The inability of the Fed to show it can be agile is another reason why investors are nervous about U.S policy regarding fiscal matters. The U.S government’s bureaucracy is too slow and bloated. The U.S is still a golden place to invest, but it is becoming problematic and this is leading to changes which effect long-term financial decisions.

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EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

by with No Comment AMT MarketsFeatured HighlightsForex

EUR/USD: Volatility is Visiting Again upon the Trump Effect

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 3rd of March 2025

The EUR/USD bounced slightly higher in early trading this morning, this after Friday’s burst lower when nervousness was ignited by the loud outcome (and lack of a resolution) via the Zelensky and Trump meeting. However, after achieving some buying impetus to start today, the EUR/USD is running into nervous headwinds as concerns remain evident.

This Thursday the ECB is expected to cut another 0.25 from its Main Refinancing Rate. The difference between borrowing rates from the ECB and Fed will be significant if the ECB does lower costs. E.U economic data warrants the dovish policy, while concerns about stubborn U.S inflation persists. And President Trump will have something to say about the Federal Reserve’s policy too. Trump wants the Fed to lower the Federal Funds Rate.

The U.S will issue its Non-Farm Employment Change numbers this Friday. And many Fed members will be speaking at various engagements this coming Thursday and Friday which is certain to get attention. Financial institutions will certainly be listening for clues regarding the potential of shifting viewpoints regarding the Fed’s current stance which is cautious from FOMC officials.

Which brings us back to the current value of the EUR/USD and behavioral sentiment which is being generated by a deep sea which is not clear. The EUR/USD into early last week was showing signs of bullishness, this as folks piled into the notion the currency pair was in oversold territory. The ability of the EUR/USD to remain above 1.04000 today should be watched. While there has been upside early this morning, European traders and full market action will begin to kick off in about one hour.

Day traders need to know the potential rate cut cut from the ECB this coming Thursday has been anticipated and factored into the EUR/USD already. Leaving the currency pair ready to be influenced by USD centric perspectives, and Ukraine concerns which are unresolved. The U.S equity indices should be watched too via their less than inspiring results the past week. While many financial institutions believe the EUR/USD should be valued higher, this may be based on instinctive bias instead of fundamental reasons.

Economists are great for insights, but it is skittish sentiment which is driving the markets. Volatility is likely and the price range of the EUR/USD could prove tactically challenging and wide. If cautious attitudes in financial institutions create calm, the EUR/USD could produce durable support levels, which could be used for upside wagers. Speculators will have opportunities in the currency pair this week, but risk management will be essential to protect against sudden gusts caused by swirling Trump rhetoric.

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Forex: Dangerous Triggers Abound for Inexperienced Speculators

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Forex: Dangerous Triggers Abound for Inexperienced Speculators

While the U.S jobs reports via the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings will grab attention today, and the Advance GDP this Wednesday and inflation numbers yesterday were important. Institutional trading focus in many respects will be elsewhere, behavioral sentiment and the potential reactions that lurk after the results from the U.S election are known are the biggest risk threat.

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USD/SGD Three Month Chart as of 1st November 2024

Yesterday’s weaker than expected Employment Cost Index will help the U.S Federal Reserve to clip another 0.25% off of the Federal Funds Rate on the 7th of November. However, the winner of the U.S Presidency will be a talking point in the coming FOMC meeting, and also the halls of the U.S Treasury, influencing potential policies. Weaker than expected jobs numbers would fuel dovish perspectives from financial institutions today, but because of the coming U.S election on Tuesday results will fall on ears possibly tuned into other frequencies. And let’s remember last month’s job numbers were stronger than expected, and revisions downward in the back months remains a problem causing mixed sentiment.

Major currencies versus the USD continue to thread within cautious weaker values. USD centric strength has been persistent since the last week of September. If this had been a normal week of trading, the USD would have likely gotten weaker after the Advance GDP results came in slightly less than anticipated. Fuel might have been added to USD selling on yesterday’s lower than expected labor costs too, but this did not happen in many cases. This needs to be a consideration for day traders who are trying to interpret U.S economic data as the U.S election looms. Simply put, behavioral sentiment in the near-term is being more influenced by the race for the White House.

If a trader wants to bet on who they think the winner of the U.S vote will be they need to be careful too, not only because they could be wrong, but if their ‘winner’ takes the presidency, reactions may be more tumultuous than planned. Speculators need to understand that financial institutions too have likely been positioning their cash forward transactions based on who they think is going to win the U.S vote. Meaning wicked reversals and take profit orders could be triggered when the U.S election outcome is known. Forex trading volumes next week should be immense.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 1st November 2024

It is a dangerous time for inexperienced traders to participate in Forex. Brokers will certainly sell this alluring show and point out that there is a lot of opportunity to make money in the coming days, but the opposite is true too. Because if you can make a lot of money from volatility, you can also lose a lot of money. Folks without deep pockets who are using leverage will be vulnerable to price velocity.

Retail traders need to understand the risks that confront them are dangerous because their Forex positions cannot be held over a long-term because of too much carrying costs, too much volatility and frequently too much leverage. Large financial institutions who are the shakers in Forex play by a completely different set of rules. It may help a day trader immensely to understand they can really only feast on profits when they have been able to ride the technical momentum caused by the influence of financial institutions.

The cyclical nature of Forex has been on full display the past three months. Trading within the USD/SGD the past three months is a solid example of a major currency teamed against the USD and sustaining a strong bearish cycle on the expectation the U.S Fed would become dovish, and then the reversal higher since late September as financial institutions started to become risk adverse. While some analysts may argue this point, the coming results in the weeks ahead will tell us a lot as large players react to clarity via a new U.S President and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Traders large and small over the next five days in Forex will be treated to quite a carnival like experience.

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Retail Traders Caught Out by Shifting Sentiment as Data Hits

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Retail Traders Caught Out by Shifting Sentiment as Data Hits

Forex speculators who relied heavily on technical data solely last week were likely punched in the gut by the rather surprising numbers from the Consumer Price Index results in the U.S last Wednesday, particularly if they were on the wrong side of trading trajectories. U.S inflation has shifted sentiment within many large investors with a rather seismic move regarding mid-term outlooks. Financial institutions which have been counting on cuts to the Federal Funds Rate have had to take a step backwards.

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EUR/USD Five Day Chart as of 15th April 2024

The dynamic momentum in Forex hit major currency pairs in the middle of last week and washed away support and resistance levels within a blink of the eye. Behavioral sentiment turned U.S Treasuries yields upwards and the major equity indices also experienced nervousness. Volatility also continued in Gold as new record values were produced, and then were followed by a rather strong reversal lower which likely hurt over-leveraged day traders.

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Gold Five Day Chart as of 15th April 2024

Not only were U.S inflation numbers important last week, but geopolitical noise became heightened. Perhaps the climb in Gold before the weekend was helped by the anticipated conflict between Iran and Israel which did play out. The price of the precious metal and WTI Crude Oil have been more tranquil early today, which may be a signal for the moment that large market players are calm.

Monday, 15th of April, U.S Core Retail Sales – after last week’s larger than expected increase in the CPI results, the spending report today will get attention from financial institutions. Last Friday’s Preliminary Price Expectations reading from the University of Michigan did not allow investors to rest when it came in with a 3.1% elevated mark. If today’s Retail statistics are above expectations, this could make Forex roil again.

Tuesday, 16th of April, China Industrial Production and Gross Domestic Product – these economic reports will be watched closely by international investors. While there have been murmurs that China’s economy is improving, and media reports that the Biden administration is trying to engage diplomatically, the industrial and GDP results are expected to be weaker than the previous month’s outcomes. China will also release Retail Sales figures.

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GBP/USD Five Day Chart as of 15th April 2024

Tuesday, 16th of April, U.K Claimant Count Change – last Friday’s GDP report from Britain did not produce any significant surprises. The U.K economy continues to struggle, but like most spheres inflation remains a problem. The GBP/USD sunk violently last week, while many speculators may believe it is currently oversold they may want to remain cautious.

Because of the U.S Federal Reserve’s own perilous fight against inflation, there are some who believe the Bank of England may need to cut interest rates before the U.S central bank. However, given the lack of proactive characteristics from the BoE and ECB which have been on full display as they dance in step with the Federal Reserve, this makes a BoE cut before the Fed a skeptical notion for the time being. The GBP/USD will stay largely USD centric even in the wake of this U.K employment report.

Tuesday, 16th of April, U.S FOMC Members – a parade of Federal Reserve voting policymakers will speak at various events, this includes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. There will likely be little in the way of surprises from the Fed members as they likely all stick to ‘party’ lines and emphasize a cautious outlook.

Wednesday, 17th of April, U.K Consumer Price Index – the inflation report could prove to be catalyst for the GBP/USD. If the CPI number does come in weaker than expected it could spur on behavioral sentiment shifts regarding the potential for changes to BoE policy. Because the GBP/USD was so volatile the past week, day traders should be prepared for rather combustible price action from the currency pair which may look counter-intuitive. Smaller speculators should remember that ‘smart money’ from larger players may be positioned for the results of the U.K CPI data already.

Thursday, 18th of April, U.S Weekly Unemployment Claims – although not the most significant of reports usually, financial institutions are ‘waiting’ on a change of statistical direction via labor market evidence. If jobs numbers start to come in weaker than anticipated – meaning there are higher jobless claims – then the USD could react with some selling.

Friday, 19th of April, U.K Retail Sales – having endured a rather wild trading cycle, Great Britain will deliver one more important economic report to end this week. The GBP/USD will react to the consumer spending results.

postN77.1

Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Forex: Behind the Curtain as Speculative Deja Vu Strikes

Friday jobs reports came in stronger than anticipated on the surface, and this led to a roller coaster like ride for Forex traders as results were acted upon by financial institutions. However, a look behind the data shows ‘positive’ results were spurred on by part-time hiring and government influences leading to a notion that jobs numbers were not exactly a ray of sunshine regarding U.S economic health. The suspicious results cause a desire to look for ulterior motives, and to wonder if election year politics are playing a role in the U.S employment picture.

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GBP/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD are rather insightful for technical and fundamental traders. The currency pairs are languishing as of today’s values near pricing that was seen in the second week of December. Since the ‘announcement’ from the U.S Federal Reserve on the 13th of December that a change in monetary policy would begin to occur in 2024, in actuality nothing has really happened, except government ‘speak’ trying to sound as if everything is understood and in control, while it is clearly not.

Economic data from the U.S and Europe has continued to be soiled by mixed results, and retail speculators looking for a trend to emerge have had to deal with choppy conditions. Financial institutions remain unclear about interest rate outlooks. The Fed while trying to ‘sound’ dovish rhetoric remains locked within a Google engine keyword mantra as they mutter the phrase ‘over time’ when trying to convince people that interest rates will ‘eventually’ be cut.

Last week leading up to the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, many FOMC members were offering cautious tones about the Federal Funds Rate and warning it should not be changed yet. The implication of the Fed’s verbiage could lead some to suspect they have all practiced statements handed to them by their overlords who are concerned this is an election year and jobs are in jeopardy.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Which leads us back to Forex and all financial assets, as investors try to swim waters which have left fundamental perspectives grasping at data which is not easy to decipher. U.S government policy is practicing fiscal spending that is causing massive debts, and perhaps influencing hiring data which may be more akin to putting lipstick on a pig. Many U.S voters seemingly lean towards electing officials who promise to hand out the biggest ‘social rewards’, while ignoring there will be a price to be paid down the road.

The Federal Reserve in the meantime tries to sound optimistic about inflation eroding, but concerns due to U.S government debt being accrued, and global geopolitical affairs combined with energy policy which is making it more expensive to maintain cheap transportation, efficient agriculture and manufacturing, shadow the Fed’s hopes. WTI Crude Oil remains over 86.00 USD per barrel. Gold is trading at record high values and above 2300.00 USD. Does anyone see the dangerous connections? Equity indices should be watched as a barometer this week.

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USD/JPY Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Monday, 8th of April, Japan Average Cash Earnings and Economic Watchers Sentiment – yesterday’s reports matched expectations regarding wages, but workers surveyed noted their concerns about incremental inflation which is being seen in Japan. The USD/JPY is challenging November higher values and the Bank of Japan has been widely criticized for not raising interest rates more aggressively. However, it is possible the BoJ wants the Japanese Yen to remain within its weaker price range to spark a stronger Japanese economy via exports.

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AUD/USD Six Month Chart as of 9th April 2024

Tuesday, 9th of April, Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment – the results via the consumer reading came in negative. The AUD/USD like the GBP/USD and EUR/USD is traversing values tested in the second week of December 2023, leading to the feeling of deja vu.

Wednesday, 10th of April, U.S Consumer Price Index – you have heard this before, the inflation reports from the States are going to rattle the financial markets including Forex. The USD is certain to react. Data from the U.S has produced surprises aplenty in the past few months. The Consumer Price Index is important and day traders certainly need to pay attention.

Thursday, 11th of April, European Central Bank – the ECB is not expected to change its Main Refinancing Rate, but many analysts believe they should cut borrowing costs. However, the ECB will likely remain within the camp of choosing to ‘wait and see’. The ECB Press Conference with Christine Legarde has widely become regarded as an opportunity for political speech as much as an economic dialogue. Recent data from the European Union suggests the worst of the recessionary cycle is gone, but German Trade Balance numbers released on Monday were negative, highlighting hurdles remain. Inflation is a worry, and a cut to the interest rate might be able to help spur on economic activity while counting on lagging data to prove proactive policy should be implemented. But this likely is not going to happen and the EUR/USD will remain problematic.

Thursday, 11th of April, U.S Producer Price Index – these slew of reports should be watched carefully. If the data is stronger than expected it is likely a part of the residue caused by higher energy costs that have affected logistics and created more expensive raw materials which are needed to produce goods. It was the higher PPI reports last month that caused dramatic tidal shifts in Forex, speculators should brace for the potential of additional mayhem.

Friday, 12th of April, U.K Gross Domestic Product – last month’s GDP numbers from Great Britain came in slightly higher than expected with a 0.2% gain, this report is anticipating growth of only 0.1%. Traders should take a deeper look at the statistics upon publication and check for revisions to past months. The U.K economy has been struggling, the ‘growth’ results will affect the GBP/USD before going into the weekend.

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FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

FOMO Potential Could Fuel FX and Equities with Calm Winds

Traders should not run towards their trading screens as the week begins, steady attitudes and risk taking tactics will be needed. Yet, there may be reasons to get excited. The return of full market volume as U.S financial institutions open and employees get back in their offices after the long holiday weekend needs to be monitored. The term ‘FOMO’ – fear of missing out – may be heard this week if U.S equity indices continue to shine, Forex demonstrates additional USD weakness and U.S Treasury yields decline further. There will be a whirlwind of economic data and opportunities for ‘official’ rhetoric in the days ahead.

Day traders should ask questions about the results which were seen technically via their charts last week, assets all struggled to find momentum last Thursday and Friday. And earlier in the week many Forex pairs produced choppy results. But here’s the thing, behavioral sentiment was rather muted as large speculators and financial institutions understood that trading volumes would be light – this caused strong bursts and sudden reversals early – but by the end of the week rather calm waters.

Many trading houses could increase their speculative positions this week based on their outlooks. Financial institutions clearly have believed the USD had been overbought and the ability of the GBP, EUR and JPY to gain in the past two weeks are possible signs large ‘players’ remain positioned for further USD weakness.

Equity markets have done well in November, but the major indices including the Dow 30, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite all started to garner strength in the last week of October. Mid-term highs are being achieved in U.S indices. The parade of buyers may not be done quite yet.

Economic data results are vital for day traders to understand because they provide insights into the thinking of financial institutions regarding their outlooks. It is not the trading of small speculators that moves markets, it is the power of large cash positions which drives results. Questions regarding where the cash is going and the allotments financial institutions are pursuing is a key to understanding how the markets are going to react. This information is not readily available for day traders, instead smaller speculators need to try to comprehend outlooks regarding positioning and timeframes of larger players.

Part of the FOMO factor could develop as financial institutions begin to question how much money they will hold in money market accounts for their clients. While the practices of large investors are always comforted by the notion they are making guaranteed returns, the pursuit of better results and the desire for risk appetite does drive behavioral sentiment when bullish markets are being exhibited.

This week will be intriguing as full volumes return to the marketplace today and tomorrow. From today until the 13th of December FOMC Statement from the U.S Federal Reserve, results in the financial markets could be speculative. Financial markets are starting to signal that optimism is creeping back into the mindsets of large investors who may believe mid-term economic scenarios have improved.

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EUR/USD Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Monday, 27th of November, E.U. ECB President Lagarde – the European Central Bank leader will deliver thoughts regarding monetary policy to the European Parliament. While the E.U still is sufferning from recessionary numbers, economic data last week came in slightly better than estimated. However, the EUR/USD remains in a USD centric mode and this will continue this week.

Tuesday, 28th of November, U.S Consumer Confidence via the Conference Board, the numbers are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. U.S economic data has been showing signs of being weaker than expected, last week’s Core Durable Goods Orders report followed this trend.

While this may be read as bad news by some people, day traders should note – particularly Forex speculators – that slightly weaker U.S economic data currently is music to the ears of many financial institutions because they believe the Federal Reserve will have to shift their rhetoric from aggressive to neutral.

Tuesday, U.S Federal Reserve Officials – a slew of FOMC members will be speaking at various events during the day. The Fed likes to give clues to the financial markets regarding their outlooks and perceptions regarding interest rates. The Federal Reserve has certainly paused their interest rate hikes.

The question now is if the U.S central bank will start to say while they remain diligent regarding inflation, that they now see signs of a ‘soft landing’ emerging within the U.S economy. If the Fed speakers begin to sound not only neutral, but offer hints of becoming potentially dovish by the spring of 2024 regarding monetary policy, this could spur USD selling.

Wednesday, 29th of November, Germany Preliminary Consumer Price Index – the inflation results are expected to be slightly weaker than last month’s outcome. German economic data has been recessionary, financial institutions know this, what large traders would like to see is stable results that are not wildly surprising.

Wednesday, 29th of November, U.S Preliminary Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers are expected to show a slight increase. Equity markets, Forex and commodity markets will react to these results. The U.S economy has been surprisingly strong regarding growth. A slight slowdown regarding the GDP numbers would not be the worse thing, if growth numbers did come in below the estimate this could fuel additional USD weakness.

But traders should not get overly ambitious and bet against the GDP numbers. If the expected outcome of 5.0% is delivered, equity markets could use this as additional fuel. The number is sure to be a talking point, but unless their is a massive divergence it may simply be a way to create noise for ‘talking heads’, when in fact behavioral sentiment regarding risk appetite remains optimistic.

Thursday, 30th of November, China Manufacturing PMI – the result is forecast to show a slight improvement. China economic numbers remain a concern, particularly from the real estate sector which is suffering and is causing cascading troubles on other sectors within the nation. Global demand for products, as an example from European countries, that are suffering recessionay pressures also is slowing China’s manufacturing. A slight improvement would be welcomed by global investors participating in China financial assets.

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WTI Crude Oil Six Month Chart as of 27th November 2023

Thursday, 30th of November, OPEC and JMMC Conference – the oil producers will certainly make their policies known and energy markets will react to the news and rumors. Commodity traders should note that WTI Crude Oil, Brent, Natural Gas and Unleaded Gasoline markets have been under price pressure and important mid-term cash support levels are in sight.

Thursday, 30th of November, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – this inflation reading is important and should be watched. The result is expected to be weaker than the previous month. If the outcome matches the anticipated reading of 0.2% or less, this could spur additional USD weakness. The Core PCE Index is an important reading for the U.S Federal Reserve regarding its inflation insights.

Friday, 1st of December, U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – the Fed leader will be speaking at a college event in Atlanta. Traders should remember that about ten days before the Fed’s pause in November regarding its FOMC Statement, Powell delivered a large hint regarding monetary policy. The Fed Chairman’s comments will come late on Friday and could cause a reaction early next week if Powell’s remarks fuel more Forex speculation.

Additional note – the U.S jobs numbers will not be released this Friday, the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings results will be published on the 8th of December.

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Interest Rates, Fireworks, OPEC, Fed Minutes, and Jobs Data

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

Interest Rates, Fireworks, OPEC, Fed Minutes, and Jobs Data

Global day traders will certainly be able to work early this week, but they should note the 4th of July holiday in the U.S will deliver rather light volumes Monday and Tuesday. Markets in the U.S will be open on the 3rd, but speculators need to understand that price action may be flat and then experience sudden bursts of energy. Financial institutions in the U.S could be rather quiet until Wednesday.

Monday, the 3rd of July, European Manufacturing PMI – data will come from across Europe and is expected to show the sector remains rather lackluster. France, Germany, the U.K and others will issue reports.

Monday, the 3rd of July, U.S Manufacturing PMI via the ISM – the Purchasing Managers Index numbers are expected to produce a slight rise, but remain under the level of 50. However, any increase compared to last month’s outcome will be an additional sign the U.S economy is battling on and would give the U.S Federal Reserve another reason to lean towards an interest rate hike later this month.

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AUD/USD One Month Chart as of 2nd July 2023

Tuesday, the 4th of July, Australia RBA Cash Rate and Statement – while some analysts assume no interest rate hike will be delivered in July because the CPI has shown a slight downturn, there seems to be rather large whispers another hike of 0.25% could be added from the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD/USD traders certainly need to pay attention, and folks with limited funds should stay on the sidelines until the decision is released.

Tuesday, the 4th of July, U.S Independence Day – banking holiday.

Wednesday, the 5th of July, China Caixin Services PMI – economic data from China has certainly shown signs of downward pressure. A slight decrease is the expected result.

Wednesday, 5th of July, OPEC Meetings – the energy cartel will be conducting its official get together in Vienna, Austria and oil traders should be on alert for any news and decisions made public that could affect the energy sector.

Wednesday, 5th of July, U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes – the publication will provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s decision to ‘pause’ interest rate hikes last month, but could also add fuel to the notion the U.S central bank remains within an aggressive stance regarding inflation. Forex markets will react to the report.

Thursday, 6th of July, U.S Services PMI via ISM – the statistics will be monitored closely due to the rather positive outcome from the GDP report last week, which showed the U.S economy remains rather resilient. A positive outcome in the Services numbers will add further evidence for the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish.

Friday, 7th of July, U.S Jobs Numbers – the employment data will culminate as the week comes to an end with the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings figures. Yes, on the day before, Thursday, traders will also see the JOLTS numbers and weekly Unemployment Claims. However, it is the Non-Farm and wages data that financial institutions will largely react upon depending on the outcomes. Because it is a ‘holiday’ week in the U.S, the reports may find a muted response, but financial institutions will use the information to gauge their mid-term outlooks and position their assets including Forex and bonds.

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Week Ahead: Summer Begins with Questions Lurking for Traders

by with No Comment AMT MarketsAssetsFeatured Highlights

Week Ahead: Summer Begins with Questions Lurking for Traders

Monday, the 19th of June, China Foreign Direct Investment – data from China has been lackluster and last week’s announcement of a stimulus program from the government underscores economic concerns regarding growth.

Monday, the 19th of June, U.S banking holiday – for commemoration of Juneteenth.

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AUD/USD Three Month Chart as of 18th June 2023

Tuesday, the 20th of June, Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – report from the Reserve Bank of Australia will interest AUD traders and those with an interest in Asian Pacific economics.

Tuesday, the 20th of June, U.S FOMC member John Willliams – as the President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, is a key member regarding policy. Taking into consideration last week’s pause, traders may want to pay attention to the New York Fed Presidents’s remarks to see if the pause in Federal Funds Rates seen last week is looked upon as a halt or a ‘skip’ by Williams. The difference between a pause and a skip may appear to be semantics, but a skip would mean an interest rate hike is coming in July. Williams is not going to say what is going to happen at the next Federal Reserve meeting, but he may give a hint regarding his opinion on what should be done.

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GBP/USD Three Month Chart as of 18th June 2023

Wednesday, the 21st of June, U.K Consumer Price Index – the data will be important regarding inflation insights for Britain. The Bank of England is expected to raise their Official Bank Rate on Thursday by 0.25%. Another report showing stubborn inflation could set the table for a rather hawkish Monetary Policy Statement from the BoE.

Wednesday, the 21st of June, U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testimony – the Fed Chairman will begin two days of speaking and taking questions. The first day will be before the House of Representatives and the second day in front of the Senate. Because a major election is coming in the U.S in 2024, this will be an opportunity for politicians from both sides of the aisle to get airtime and take a ‘stance’ while bludgeoning Jerome Powell. The Fed Chairman’s remarks could stir the markets slightly, but Powell will be as careful as possible not to put a scare into the financial sector.

Thursday, the 22nd of June, U.K Bank of England – the Official Bank Rate, Monetary Policy Summary and vote count from the Monetary Policy Committee will be released. A hike has been widely expected by GBP traders and has been factored into the British Pound already.

Thursday, the 22nd of June, U.S Existing Home Sales – the housing report will cause a few murmurs in the marketplace because it is seen as an extension of consumer health and interest rate policy in the U.S regarding behavioral sentiment. Existing home sales numbers have been dropping as people with homes have decided to stay put in their current residences. ‘Locked in’ interest rates are more attractive, instead of taking on a higher rate via a new purchase due to costlier mortgages because of more expensive borrowing fees.

Friday, the 23rd of June, E.U Manufacturing and Services PMI – the flash reports from the likes of Germany, France and the U.K should be watched. Manufacturing readings have been producing recessionary readings while Services data is expected to show incremental decreases too.

Friday, the 23rd of June, U.S Manufacturing and Services PMI – the flash reports via the Purchasing Managers Index data need to be monitored too from the States. The readings give a rather good insight regarding outlook of U.S business sentiment.

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Week Ahead: Inflation Followed by the U.S Federal Reserve

by with No Comment AMT MarketsBehavioral SentimentFeatured Highlights

Week Ahead: Inflation Followed by the U.S Federal Reserve

Monday, 12th of June, U.S Federal Budget Balance – hold down the laughter and snickers please as you wonder why you should care, this as the report shows monthly income versus spending from the month before. Yes, the U.S ‘Debt Ceiling’ bill was passed recently. Very few people are going to pay attention to Budget Balance report, except economists and traders who have ‘skin in the game’ via hedge funds as an example – that make long-term bets, and U.S politicians who want to hoot and holler…….while nothing really gets done to limit wasteful spending in Washington D.C.

Tuesday, 13th of June, U.S Consumer Price Index reports – yes, this inflation data will be important per the monthly numbers showing what consumers are spending. A slight uptick is expected with an outcome of plus 0.2% via the broad statistics – last month’s number showed a gain of 0.4%. The outcome of the broad and core CPI statistics will give the Federal Reserve a sounding board for what will take place on Wednesday via the Federal Funds Rate announcement. Stronger than expected inflation numbers could cause a rupture and nervousness. A weaker result would calm Forex and perhaps make the USD slightly weaker.

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EUR/USD One Month Chart as of 11th June 2023

Wednesday, 14th of June, U.S Producer Price Index – these numbers will be released early in the day and will be followed by the Federal Reserve five and half hours later. The inflation outcome via the PPI if stronger than anticipated would cause some caution before the Federal Reserve takes the stage.

Wednesday, 14th of June, U.S Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference – while many analysts seem convinced the Fed will not hike the interest rate this week, there are obviously no guarantees. The FOMC Statement will indicate the U.S central bank’s outlook. Traders who are intent on trading before the official interest rate announcement and statement are playing with fire. Speculators should keep in mind that other central banks have surprised folks with increases recently including Canada and Australia. A hike from the U.S Federal Reserve would surprise a lot of people and financial institutions, but stranger things have happened.

Thursday, 15th of June, New Zealand Gross Domestic Product – the growth numbers which will come out a handful of hours after the U.S Fed leaves the stage will be intriguing and provide NZD/USD traders more impetus into what will likely already be a volatile trading session taking place.

Thursday, 15th of June, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – these two reports from the economic giant will be watched closely. China’s economy is struggling a bit, and weakness in the housing sector via values are starting to cause a reaction in domestic spending. Industrial Production numbers will give some insights regarding global demand. Economic problems in Europe and North America are certainly not helping matters in China because demand for goods are restrained and hurting the manufacturing sector.

Thursday, 15th of June, U.S Retail Sales – consumers in the U.S have been expected to start producing negative numbers via these statistics, will they begin to do it? A stronger number would be of interest to some, but after Wednesdays’ FOMC Statement and news that will be generated, it is questionable who will give full attention to this report and what affect it could have.

Thursday, 15th of June, E.U ECB Press Conference – this question and answer session could prove to be interesting depending on what the U.S Fed does the day before. Certainly the European Central Bank will give their opinions on monetary policy and economic circumstances in the European Union and abroad. The EUR/USD could be affected.

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USD/JPY One Month Chart as of 11th June 2023

Friday, 16th of June, Japan BoJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement – no major changes are expected from the Bank of Japan. This is the one central bank unwilling to change its attitude regarding monetary policy because of the whims of others. Perhaps if the U.S Federal Reserve surprised everyone on Wednesday with a hike, this could change the quiet rhetoric from the BoJ – but even that is doubtful. USD/JPY traders should pay attention to the BoJ Press Conference just in case.

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USD/INR: Elevated Range as Questions about Values Persists

by with No Comment AMT MarketsCentral BanksFeatured Highlights

USD/INR: Elevated Range as Questions about Values Persists

The USD/INR has traded the past week approximately between the 82.2200 and 82.7000 ratios. Plenty of discussion regarding what the Reserve Bank of India has been doing as they battle the strong USD has been whispered openly, and is being questioned from financial institutions and speculators. Day traders who have been trying to wager on the value of the Indian Rupee have likely found the waters difficult to swim. As of this writing the USD/INR is near 82.5200.

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USD/INR Three Month Chart as of 8th June 2023

Last Wednesday’s sudden rhetoric, from two U.S Federal Reserve officials caused mayhem briefly within the USD/INR. The currency pair got hit after India’s official trading hours closed, and essentially moved in overseas accounts based on the spoken words from the two Fed members stating the U.S central bank should not raise the Federal Funds Rate on the 14th of June. These sudden Forex moves hurt many USD/INR speculators. After this rhetoric from the two well-regarded FOMC members, like clockwork U.S economic data provided a counter punch last Friday with better than anticipated Non-Farm Employment Change numbers, this while inflation results also remained persistent.

Three Month View of the USD/INR offers Sentiment Insights and perhaps Clues

The past three months of trading in the USD/INR have produced a rather rocky price trend. A low of nearly 81.5200 was seen on the 14th of April, which turned into a high of approximately 82.9000 on the 19th of May. Intriguingly while many USD/INR speculators may be looking at the U.S Federal Reserve and casting blame, questioning the potential interventions by the Reserve Bank of India remains relevant. The Reserve Bank of India has actually been rather tranquil regarding its use of interest rate hikes; it has not raised the key lending rate aggressively in India like many of its major global counterparts. Why is this?

Is there a potential the Reserve Bank of India and the government has wanted the Indian Rupee to get weaker? Deflating the Indian Rupee’s value in order to potentially create an unseen tax is considered an old trick by economists. This because some believe inflation is a way to tax people without actually raising interest rates, the deflated value of a currency makes it easier for governments to sometimes repay debt, based on the notion the money they are now using is cheaper compared to when the Indian Rupee’s value was better.

Where is the USD/INR Going to Go Next?

I am no economist; my specialty tends to be risk analysis. There is an old joke, ‘why did god create economists? To make weathermen look good.’ The point is that economists often get their outlooks wrong, but we cannot blame only economists for getting their outlooks wrong, many of us do. The USD/INR has a tough few days ahead, it must deal with nervous market sentiment generated from a lack of clarity via the U.S Federal Reserve. Looking for correlations in the Forex market is proving difficult for the moment for all short-term speculators. Choppy trading in the USD/INR has been noticeable the past few days, this Monday’s upwards trend has turned into near-term consolidated day trading. Other major currency pairs are turning in rather turbulent results also without a firm technical stance.

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Gold Three Month Chart as of 8th of June 2023

After speaking with many associates in the financial sector the past week, it appears many people believe the Fed should stop raising interest rates for the time being. Some financial institutions seem to be leaning in this direction, but there are caution signs all over that warn about potential surprises from the U.S Federal Reserve.

Yesterday the Bank of Canada raised its Overnight Rate by another 0.25%, when most analysts believed they would pause. Another interesting sign is the current price of Gold near 1950.00. The recent lower price could indicate some financial houses believe the Federal Reserve may actually remain active regarding further interest rate hikes, this because the price of Gold has tended to rise when the perception existed the Federal Reserve is going to be dovish. Gold’s downward price action should raise suspicious eyebrows.

But then again, I am not an economist; I am merely a risk analyst. So my words to you are, be careful if you are wagering on the USD/INR before the U.S Federal Reserve’s pronouncements next Wednesday on the 14th of June.